MAC_32
Footballguy
I am taking a different approach for 2014 draft prep. 2013 was still a pretty good year relatively speaking, I won my most important league, but I did not do as well as I usually do. In a dog fight for 2nd and 3rd this weekend in my roto's, knocked out in the 1st round of one head to head playoffs after barely squeaking in, and will finish somewhere between 5th and 7th in my other roto.
My new approach? I will post my player analysis here. The idea is two fold
-create an easier way to search for my write up's on players to assemble my cheat sheet come February
-stimulate discussion because despite the amount of baseball I watch I don't watch everything and you guys are more clued into some players/teams than I am, I'm hoping you can help me and I can help you. The more information, the better. Easier to manage over 4 months than in 4 days before your draft, huh?
I don't know how many I'll get through. My weakness is bats, so ideally the top 300 + fliers. Pitchers will be on an if time allows basis, historically I do a much better job figuring them out preseason and in-season before others, but I also don't want to completely ignore them and pay the price next year.
Anyway, here are the guys I researched today, hope you guys find benefit in this...hope I do too.
Will Venable - pre 2013 opinion, good not great option in daily leagues. Must sit vs. lefties and suffers from the Petco effect. When he's hot though, get him before a road trip starts. 2013 at 30 years old? In 104 AB's he hit 269/303/510 vs. lefties and 271/331/530 at home. Both figures higher than his righty and road split and his career triple splash. Zza? His ISO spiked to 211 (previous high 184), he walked less, but K's and BABIP were stable, and his GB/FB/LD were stable...so what happened? A HR/FB of 20.2%?! Whoa. What about 2014? Hmm...60/15/50/20/.260? Given what he's done for my team over the last couple of months (23/8/17/10/.312 in 37 G) I'm very surprised my projection came out this low, a comparable line to what Desmond Jennings disappointed his owners with this year. Maybe his upside is as an OF5 in deeper leagues that's still preferred in daily vs. weekly.
Nate McLouth - pre 2013 opinion, emerged as a decent daily league option again late in 2012 after not doing anything since 2009. 2013 at 31 years old? Where did that come from? I picked him up as a late flier in my daily leagues to possibly rotate in vs. righties and he ended up being a near every day player for a lot longer than I expected. He came out with a fire lit under him on the base paths, probably realizing this is his last legitimate chance to stick in the majors. He stole 24 bases in the season’s first half, but ran out of gas as he only stole 6 bases after the All Star break and battled through a knee injury, killing his season numbers as he hit 194/272/333 in August and 229/308/414 in September. To that point, he still wasn’t hitting lefties, but he was 280/345/415 with most of his damage done to righties. Can that carry over to 2014? Well, his K’s decreased significantly (career low 14.2%) and his LD% increased by an even greater amount (24.7%!), showing a skills progression, while his ISO, BB%, and BABIP remained stable. I don’t think we can expect him to run as much as he did in the first half of 2013, but if his bat carries over a repeat of 275/345/415 is absolutely within reach. Give him 550 AB’s with healthy knees and you’re looking at 80//12/45/22/.275 being well within reach. Like Venable above, Jennings becomes an interesting comparison. I’d actually trend more towards McLouth in daily roto leagues rather than either of them because you can bench him vs. lefties. I haven’t played him much at all the last 6 weeks and still got 62/9/27/25/.274 out of him in just 88 games. Platoon his 88 games with 70 of Brandon Moss and you come out with an aggregate total of 104/24/78/28/270, not bad for guys buried on the scrap heap.
Desmond Jennings – okay, enough Desmond Jennings comparisons, what happened to him this year? Pre 2013 opinion – I missed the mark. My preseason cheat sheet says 90/17/65/35/265. Final tally? 81/14/54/20/.252 with 2 to go and he missed time during the season, a very similar season to 2012 just with less steals. Well, I guess it wasn’t as far off as it seemed, actually it wasn’t at all. Not a pretty season, offensively or defensively, but did meet expectations. The 26 year old is still looking up at his prime though. This may be it, but he has the raw ability for more. How realistic is it though? Nothing in his profile really changed, at all. No progression, no regression. He had a couple of injuries in season, but most baseball players do. Other than the scouting report, is there reason to believe he has more in him? I don’t see it. Give him 600 AB’s and you’re looking at 90/17/60/20 something/.250. If his price corrects I’ll consider rolling with him again, the raw upside is there for more and he is more reliable in weekly leagues (although he is better vs. lefties than righties). OF is just so deep and easy to patch together in-season, other positions are so thin and not so easy to fix on the fly. I can’t imagine picking him again…not right now anyway…especially when guys like Venable and McLouth will likely be much cheaper again.
My new approach? I will post my player analysis here. The idea is two fold
-create an easier way to search for my write up's on players to assemble my cheat sheet come February
-stimulate discussion because despite the amount of baseball I watch I don't watch everything and you guys are more clued into some players/teams than I am, I'm hoping you can help me and I can help you. The more information, the better. Easier to manage over 4 months than in 4 days before your draft, huh?
I don't know how many I'll get through. My weakness is bats, so ideally the top 300 + fliers. Pitchers will be on an if time allows basis, historically I do a much better job figuring them out preseason and in-season before others, but I also don't want to completely ignore them and pay the price next year.
Anyway, here are the guys I researched today, hope you guys find benefit in this...hope I do too.
Will Venable - pre 2013 opinion, good not great option in daily leagues. Must sit vs. lefties and suffers from the Petco effect. When he's hot though, get him before a road trip starts. 2013 at 30 years old? In 104 AB's he hit 269/303/510 vs. lefties and 271/331/530 at home. Both figures higher than his righty and road split and his career triple splash. Zza? His ISO spiked to 211 (previous high 184), he walked less, but K's and BABIP were stable, and his GB/FB/LD were stable...so what happened? A HR/FB of 20.2%?! Whoa. What about 2014? Hmm...60/15/50/20/.260? Given what he's done for my team over the last couple of months (23/8/17/10/.312 in 37 G) I'm very surprised my projection came out this low, a comparable line to what Desmond Jennings disappointed his owners with this year. Maybe his upside is as an OF5 in deeper leagues that's still preferred in daily vs. weekly.
Nate McLouth - pre 2013 opinion, emerged as a decent daily league option again late in 2012 after not doing anything since 2009. 2013 at 31 years old? Where did that come from? I picked him up as a late flier in my daily leagues to possibly rotate in vs. righties and he ended up being a near every day player for a lot longer than I expected. He came out with a fire lit under him on the base paths, probably realizing this is his last legitimate chance to stick in the majors. He stole 24 bases in the season’s first half, but ran out of gas as he only stole 6 bases after the All Star break and battled through a knee injury, killing his season numbers as he hit 194/272/333 in August and 229/308/414 in September. To that point, he still wasn’t hitting lefties, but he was 280/345/415 with most of his damage done to righties. Can that carry over to 2014? Well, his K’s decreased significantly (career low 14.2%) and his LD% increased by an even greater amount (24.7%!), showing a skills progression, while his ISO, BB%, and BABIP remained stable. I don’t think we can expect him to run as much as he did in the first half of 2013, but if his bat carries over a repeat of 275/345/415 is absolutely within reach. Give him 550 AB’s with healthy knees and you’re looking at 80//12/45/22/.275 being well within reach. Like Venable above, Jennings becomes an interesting comparison. I’d actually trend more towards McLouth in daily roto leagues rather than either of them because you can bench him vs. lefties. I haven’t played him much at all the last 6 weeks and still got 62/9/27/25/.274 out of him in just 88 games. Platoon his 88 games with 70 of Brandon Moss and you come out with an aggregate total of 104/24/78/28/270, not bad for guys buried on the scrap heap.
Desmond Jennings – okay, enough Desmond Jennings comparisons, what happened to him this year? Pre 2013 opinion – I missed the mark. My preseason cheat sheet says 90/17/65/35/265. Final tally? 81/14/54/20/.252 with 2 to go and he missed time during the season, a very similar season to 2012 just with less steals. Well, I guess it wasn’t as far off as it seemed, actually it wasn’t at all. Not a pretty season, offensively or defensively, but did meet expectations. The 26 year old is still looking up at his prime though. This may be it, but he has the raw ability for more. How realistic is it though? Nothing in his profile really changed, at all. No progression, no regression. He had a couple of injuries in season, but most baseball players do. Other than the scouting report, is there reason to believe he has more in him? I don’t see it. Give him 600 AB’s and you’re looking at 90/17/60/20 something/.250. If his price corrects I’ll consider rolling with him again, the raw upside is there for more and he is more reliable in weekly leagues (although he is better vs. lefties than righties). OF is just so deep and easy to patch together in-season, other positions are so thin and not so easy to fix on the fly. I can’t imagine picking him again…not right now anyway…especially when guys like Venable and McLouth will likely be much cheaper again.