What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

On The Clock: Redraft Pick 10.04 (1 Viewer)

At pick 10.04, I take

  • Matt Ryan

    Votes: 2 9.5%
  • Phillip Rivers

    Votes: 4 19.0%
  • Sterling Shepard

    Votes: 5 23.8%
  • Minnesota Vikings D/ST (or other defense)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • DJ Moore

    Votes: 3 14.3%
  • Corey Clement

    Votes: 2 9.5%
  • Ty Montgomery

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Ben Roethlisberger

    Votes: 5 23.8%
  • Other (please pick some one reasonable at the ADP and list in thread)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    21

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
I will run this as a new series of threads for some redraft discussion. We will jump around through various parts of the draft and look at players in that tier that should be available. I'll use ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr to present some on the clock scenarios with polls as to who you would take. I am going to base this on ppr leagues because at this point I think they are the most popular but those of you in standard leagues feel free to vote and discuss what you would do "differently" in standard leagues.

I strongly encourage people to not just vote in the poll but discuss their choices.

Pick 1.04

Pick 4.09

Pick 8.06

Pick 1.01

Pick 14.03

Pick 3.01

For this "OTC" thread we will move into Round 10. I know it may depend on what you did the first nine rounds but for the purpose of this exercise assume you are well balanced but have not pulled the trigger at QB yet (4WR, 4RB,  1TE). Do you finally grab QB or wait because you still see some value and keep building up your RB/WR corp.? Do you grab a defense or a second TE?

I realize once we get later in the draft it's more of a wide open field and you may "reach" but I think it works better is we list players in the ADP range and discuss... but feel free to go off the board with the "Other" option.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I chose other and went with Big Ben.  IMO he has the best shot at cracking the top 10.  Also, if I didn't take a QB and there was a QB run before my 11.9 pick, I fear my starter would be Marcus Mariota.  From ADP's 10.1 through 11.7 the QB's you could miss out on are Ryan, Rivers, Ben, Goff, and Mahomes, all of which are much more appealing than Marcus.

 
I wouldn't want to wait any later than this to take a QB but would take Roethlisberger over Rivers if both were available, like Winz.

 
I chose other and went with Big Ben.  IMO he has the best shot at cracking the top 10.  Also, if I didn't take a QB and there was a QB run before my 11.9 pick, I fear my starter would be Marcus Mariota.  From ADP's 10.1 through 11.7 the QB's you could miss out on are Ryan, Rivers, Ben, Goff, and Mahomes, all of which are much more appealing than Marcus.
+1

ETA: Mariota is going to have a heck of a season but I would be more comfortable with him as my qb2 just in case I'm wrong

 
Last edited by a moderator:
There are still a few QBs that I really like on the board so I would roll the dice for one more round if this was me. I went with Corey Clement because he's one of my "must have" guys, as I see him returning tremendous value.

I should have probable listed Big Ben but I did not realize he was actually going so late - figured he was in the 8/9 round area - my bad. He is good value here which is why I would likely wait one more round - I figure at that point almost everyone else would have a starter - hoping people don't start taking backup QBs.

 
Agree on taking Big Ben here. In my league (6 points for passing TDs), the QBs tend to go early. I have waited before, and the next thing you know, half the league has their back-up QBs before I have my starter. Which means I am mixing and matching all season long--hoping to get lucky each week. I would pair Ben with a solid "back-up" (thinking either Mariota or Alex Smith) and then grab Baker Mayfield as my 18th round pick as the draft is ending. I firmly believe that he will put up numbers come the second half of the season. 

 
To me, it depends on how many teams besides me dont have a QB yet and whether Andrew Luck is still there. Im comfortable with Andrew Luck and Carr as my two QBs. If those are both still out there and only one other team has not taken a QB, im taking a WR/RB.

 
To me, it depends on how many teams besides me dont have a QB yet and whether Andrew Luck is still there. Im comfortable with Andrew Luck and Carr as my two QBs. If those are both still out there and only one other team has not taken a QB, im taking a WR/RB.
Luck's ADP is 8.05 but obviously that does not mean he could not be there at 10.04 in your league.

 
Luck's ADP is 8.05 but obviously that does not mean he could not be there at 10.04 in your league.
Ok. sorry. Ive been doing mock drafts and he has been going after Ryan, Big Gen and Alex smith. I didnt check the ADP here.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Agree on taking Big Ben here. In my league (6 points for passing TDs), the QBs tend to go early. I have waited before, and the next thing you know, half the league has their back-up QBs before I have my starter. Which means I am mixing and matching all season long--hoping to get lucky each week. I would pair Ben with a solid "back-up" (thinking either Mariota or Alex Smith) and then grab Baker Mayfield as my 18th round pick as the draft is ending. I firmly believe that he will put up numbers come the second half of the season. 
If we go by the ADP list I linked exactly 11 QBs would be off the board at your pick (although technically Matt Ryan's ADP of 10.01 would mean he would also be gone) so under this scenario you'd be the only team in a 12 man league without a QB. Some teams in my league do take their backup QBs earlier than you'd expect so that could be a concern.

 
Here's how Rivers, Roethlisberger and Ryan have finished the past 10 years (not counting Week 17's). End of season FF QB rank starting from 2017 working backwards to 2008. Excuse my poor formatting skills. 

Rivers: 12, 7, 11, 9, 6, 20, 9, 3, 6, 4

Roethlisberger: 7, 15, 23, 6, 8, 21, 11, 20, 9, 15

Ryan: 15, 3 19, 7 13, 5, 7, 11, 19, 16

Rivers: His only season finishing outside the QB1 range was in 2012 as QB20. Malcom Floyd was his top WR that year as Vincent Jackson had moved on to Tampa Bay and Keenan Allen didn't join the team until the next year. His elite performance from 2008-2010 came during Tomlinson's decline with Jackson and Gates in their prime.

Roethlisberger: Outside of 2008 when he finished as QB15, Roethlisberger has finished as a Top 9 QB each year he hasn't missed any games. He's also extrapolated to at least a top 9 QB finish in each of the years he missed time on a PPG basis. The negative is he's missed time 6 of the past 9 years.

Ryan: Outside of his Top 3 finish during his career year on Atlanta's Super Bowl run, he had 3 Top 7 finishes from 2011-2014 when Atlanta had the trio of Julio, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez.

 
Voted other - Roethlisberger (Rivers a close 2nd)

If I don't have a QB at this point in the draft I'm double dipping on QB's. Roethlisberger carries an injury risk but has the highest ceiling, best receiving targets and equal floor to Rivers and Ryan. Roethlisberger likely gives elite QB1 performance during home games and is an avoid for away games. I'm fine with that knowing I'll be scooping up a QB2 soon after this pick. Rivers is safe and will give low end QB1 production. I can't see him getting above low end QB1 status with Henry out for the year. Ryan is more of a fringe QB1 and gets to low end QB1 status if Julio and Ridley have great years. I'll take my chances on Roethlisberger's upside and be sure to grab a solid QB2.

 
Since all 5 "other" votes were for Roethlisberger, I changed the poll choice to be Big Ben so the results are more accurate.

 
This comes down to DJ Moore vs. Roethlisberger for me. DJ has tons of upside as a rookie first rounder on a team where he could emerge as the top receiver, Ben is the best QB available given his great receiving corps. I'll probably be looking at guys like Mariota, Alex Smith, Prescott, and Winston at QB over the coming rounds if I pass here; I could live with that (and maybe one of the 3 R's would fall to the 11th if other teams wait on their QB2s).

I'll take a shot at DJ Moore, who is the last WR (or RB) that I have much excitement about. Probably locking myself into 2 QBs in my next 3 picks (ideally with a Gostkowski mixed in), but that seems okay given how my roster is looking and what players are available.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top