One Week Does Not a Season Make (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

I know saying this is akin to spitting in the wind, but let's please remember that one week is just that, one week.

Are there things to be learned from what we just saw? Of course.

But are they a hard and fast representation of how the rest of the fantasy season is going to unfold? Absolutely not.

Having been around now for a long time, it seems that every year it's the same thing after Week One:

1) Look at how smart I was!

2) Look at how dumb you were!

3) All of the above

There's nothing at all wrong with discussing the outcome of the games and how it might shape your views going forward, but it seems that a lot of folks just can't get past the beating of their chests as though they knew it all and everyone else was clueless.

Here's the thing. In an honest moment, anyone posting a snarky "I TOLD YOU SO" today about a call they got right is avoiding or ignoring an equally bad call they made. It's the nature of the beast.

Let's remember some of these nuggets from Week One of last season:

*** Jon Kitna had 262 yards and 2 TDs

*** Jake Delhomme had 247 yards and a TD

*** Matt Schaub only threw for 202 yards and a TD with 2 INTs

*** Reggie Bush had 163 yards and a TD

*** Hank Baskett (102 yards/TD) and Greg Lewis (104 yards) matched DeSean Jackson stat for stat

*** Justin Fargas had 109 yards from scrimmage

*** Dante Rosario had 96 yards

*** Lance Moore only had 17 yards

*** Visanthe Shiancoe only had 21 yards

*** Larry Fitzgerald had 32 yards

*** Owen Daniels had 33 yards

*** Donald Driver had 38 yards

 

[Masked Vigilante]

Can you really blame FF players for overreacting? They've been waiting for the NFL season to start for 4 months now. Its like when your a kid and you get a puzzle for Christmas. All that anticipation and excitement for nothing.

 

[Mr. Mojo]

Can you really blame FF players for overreacting? They've been waiting for the NFL season to start for 4 months now. Its like when your a kid and you get a puzzle for Christmas. All that anticipation and excitement for nothing.

Great

 

[CentralPA]

very very

It happens every season in the NFL, one guy (like a Mike Bell) blows up for a game but well over half the time it turns out to be smoke and mirrors. Things are not going to pan out like this the whole year. It's only week 1 and things are still cloudy.

 

[Jason Wood]

Can you really blame FF players for overreacting? They've been waiting for the NFL season to start for 4 months now. Its like when your a kid and you get a puzzle for Christmas. All that anticipation and excitement for nothing.

It's not about blame at all, it's about trying to remind people to relax and that their fantasy seasons aren't made or ruined regardless of what transpired this weekend.

 

[Multiple Scores]

One thing I did learn in Week 1 which only confirmed my suspicion is Mark Sanchez is the real deal.

 

[MCguidance]

Can you really blame FF players for overreacting? They've been waiting for the NFL season to start for 4 months now. Its like when your a kid and you get a puzzle for Christmas. All that anticipation and excitement for nothing.

It's not about blame at all, it's about trying to remind people to relax and that their fantasy seasons aren't made or ruined regardless of what transpired this weekend.

More importantly, how did your FF tour go this weekend?

 

[sparkky]

I think all the new coaches, 9 I think, added to the "craziness" of the first week. there was no game tape to show tendencies and such.

nothing in the preseason means much even for new coaches in terms of reference points for game planning. it will be a few weeks before things settle down I think.

 

[Arizona Ron]

Brady put up ZERO points yesterday!! :IBTL:

oh wait

 

[Joe Bryant]

Great thought Jason.

If there's a trait I've noticed about FF owners, it's that their memory is VERY short. And oddly enough, the more serious they are about the game, the worse this is for them. I think it's because they're so close to it.

Jay Cutler is a great example. I'd trade FOR Jay Cutler all day today. I've seen way too much of him to think he's somehow turned permanently into the guy we saw last night. That was jitters + new receivers + Dom Capers + a very good Green Bay team.

All but the new receivers will be different next week.

In the same way, I'm not ready to appoint Tony Romo and Dallas as Tom Brady and the Patriots because they beat Tampa.

J

 

[PewterFan]

*** Dante Rosario had 96 yards

And caught the game winning TD versus the Chargers. I went nuts after this guy.

 

[TheAristocrat]

One thing I did learn in Week 1 which only confirmed my suspicion is Mark Sanchez is the real deal.

That's awesome that you did that in this thread.

 

[comfortably numb]

Taking advantage of over reaction is also a part of FF.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

One thing I did learn in Week 1 which only confirmed my suspicion is Mark Sanchez is the real deal.

He's the second coming of Joe Flacco.Maybe.

 

[Chaka]

PANIC!!!

 

[Gr00vus]

Jay Cutler is a great example. I'd trade FOR Jay Cutler all day today. I've seen way too much of him to think he's somehow turned permanently into the guy we saw last night. That was jitters + new receivers + Dom Capers + a very good Green Bay team.All but the new receivers will be different next week.

You mean when they play the Steelers? I'm thinking if you really want to trade for Cutler the price will be even lower next Monday.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Jay Cutler is a great example. I'd trade FOR Jay Cutler all day today. I've seen way too much of him to think he's somehow turned permanently into the guy we saw last night. That was jitters + new receivers + Dom Capers + a very good Green Bay team.All but the new receivers will be different next week.

You mean when they play the Steelers? I'm thinking if you really want to trade for Cutler the price will be even lower next Monday.

That's probably true if you wanted to gamble and hope you could get him really low. But for most that I'm seeing, the panic is in full effect even now.J

 

[bb7278]

C Palmer

D Garrard ®

L Tomlinson

M Forte

C Taylor ®

J Davis ®

L Washington ®

B Edwards

R White

D Avery ®

J Witten

L Moore

N Kaeding

B Ruud

Cowboys

Cardinals

DOOOOOOOM!

 

[PatytonsGhost]

Just a small sampling of a wacky week 1

Mike Bell NO 143

Julius Jones SEA 117

Patrick Crayton DAL 135 Receiving

Tim Hightower ARI 121 Receiving

Brees 6 TD's

Cutler 4 Ints

Delhomme blah

Philadelphia 5INT 1Fumble 1 Def TD 5 Sacks

 

[jon_mx]

Am I the only one projecting Brees to throw 96 TD's this year?

 

[rzrback77]

I am not a backer of Cutler at all, but he will do better than 50% completion rate and he still had 7.9 ypa. The big issue was the 1 TD and 4 ints. I am convinced that the ints will remain on the high side, but not to that extent.

What I am confused about the most is that the two solid TEs combined for only two catches and Forte who was excellent all year catching the ball had none.

 

[karmarooster]

Great OP. But how can we separate things that are the "Real Deal" from the things that are "Week 1 Wonders"?

For example, Matt Schaub. This year's first game game was arguably worse than last year, not just because his stats are worse, but that more should be expected on an offense that returns 11 starters and the same coaching staff (minus Walter of course).

Schaub was my #1 QB value pick and i landed him in 2 leagues. Obviously I expect him to improve on this performance, but is it an overreaction to to think "maybe I was wrong" when I figured he was a top 5 QB if he stayed healthy for 16 games, or that he would be a Top 5 QB in Points Per Game?

Also, I'd love your input on my Week 1 over-reaction thread: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=488753

 

[valhallan]

I am not a backer of Cutler at all, but he will do better than 50% completion rate and he still had 7.9 ypa. The big issue was the 1 TD and 4 ints. I am convinced that the ints will remain on the high side, but not to that extent.What I am confused about the most is that the two solid TEs combined for only two catches and Forte who was excellent all year catching the ball had none.

My guess would be Olsen was double-teamed and Cutler is less likely to make dump-offs to Forte than Orton was.

 

[Chaka]

Am I the only one projecting Brees to throw 96 TD's this year?

That projection is a little bit on the conservative side.

 

[rzrback77]

Interesting things I noticed........

1) Only five guys ran for over a hundred yards and four of them were surprises (Peterson along with Bell, JJones, Rice and TJones)

2) Only eight guys had over twenty carries (Bell, Forte, Peterson, Gore, Turner, Benson, Jones-Drew, and Thomas Jones)

3) Hightower with 12 catches while Fitz and Boldin combined for 8

4) Forte and Steven Jackson each had zero catches

 

[Ghost Rider]

Yep, Week 1 is always a bit weird.

 

[rzrback77]

I am not a backer of Cutler at all, but he will do better than 50% completion rate and he still had 7.9 ypa. The big issue was the 1 TD and 4 ints. I am convinced that the ints will remain on the high side, but not to that extent.What I am confused about the most is that the two solid TEs combined for only two catches and Forte who was excellent all year catching the ball had none.

My guess would be Olsen was double-teamed and Cutler is less likely to make dump-offs to Forte than Orton was.

Were both TEs double teamed? I saw several occasions where Cutler threw directly into double coverage and mostly downfield. If Olsen was constantly double teamed and not open, then why not throw to Forte?

 

[texasheat]

It's always a good sign for me when i am already setting my week 2 lineups about 2 hours into the games yesterday

 

[Joe Bryant]

Interesting things I noticed........1) Only five guys ran for over a hundred yards and four of them were surprises (Peterson along with Bell, JJones, Rice and TJones)2) Only eight guys had over twenty carries (Bell, Forte, Peterson, Gore, Turner, Benson, Jones-Drew, and Thomas Jones)3) Hightower with 12 catches while Fitz and Boldin combined for 84) Forte and Steven Jackson each had zero catches

Great post. Love stuff like this.J

 

[TheFanatic]

I commented in the Hightower thread when someone said that Wells was the new Biakabutuka, if people always over react this much after week 1.

Wells who missed a lot of preseason comes in for 7 carries, in a very tight game, and gets 29 yards and he's the next biakabutuka? I hate be the guy to say, "I wish I was in your league," but I would love to trade for that guy right now... Hightower caught the ball all day long but he doesn't do well running it. Can't round the corner.

 

[TheFanatic]

Interesting things I noticed........1) Only five guys ran for over a hundred yards and four of them were surprises (Peterson along with Bell, JJones, Rice and TJones)2) Only eight guys had over twenty carries (Bell, Forte, Peterson, Gore, Turner, Benson, Jones-Drew, and Thomas Jones)3) Hightower with 12 catches while Fitz and Boldin combined for 84) Forte and Steven Jackson each had zero catches

Great post. Love stuff like this.J

Something tells me some of this is going to be in the Random Thoughts email...

 

[Chaka]

I am not a backer of Cutler at all, but he will do better than 50% completion rate and he still had 7.9 ypa. The big issue was the 1 TD and 4 ints. I am convinced that the ints will remain on the high side, but not to that extent.What I am confused about the most is that the two solid TEs combined for only two catches and Forte who was excellent all year catching the ball had none.

My guess would be Olsen was double-teamed and Cutler is less likely to make dump-offs to Forte than Orton was.

Were both TEs double teamed? I saw several occasions where Cutler threw directly into double coverage and mostly downfield. If Olsen was constantly double teamed and not open, then why not throw to Forte?

It really looked like Jay had radar lock on Bennett. He could very easily have had 5 picks if you remember the pass he threw to Bennett in quadruple coverage.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Interesting things I noticed........1) Only five guys ran for over a hundred yards and four of them were surprises (Peterson along with Bell, JJones, Rice and TJones)2) Only eight guys had over twenty carries (Bell, Forte, Peterson, Gore, Turner, Benson, Jones-Drew, and Thomas Jones)3) Hightower with 12 catches while Fitz and Boldin combined for 84) Forte and Steven Jackson each had zero catches

Great post. Love stuff like this.J

Something tells me some of this is going to be in the Random Thoughts email...

Yes, always love stuff like this for RS.J

 

[az_prof]

Jay Cutler is a great example. I'd trade FOR Jay Cutler all day today. I've seen way too much of him to think he's somehow turned permanently into the guy we saw last night. That was jitters + new receivers + Dom Capers + a very good Green Bay team.All but the new receivers will be different next week.

You mean when they play the Steelers? I'm thinking if you really want to trade for Cutler the price will be even lower next Monday.

That's probably true if you wanted to gamble and hope you could get him really low. But for most that I'm seeing, the panic is in full effect even now.J

The key is figuring out what we saw week 1 that will continue and what we can presume is a likely aberration. And then as you say, buy low and sell high. Jay Cutler is a perfect example and I am going to consider trying to acquire him myself. Why? He is learning a new system and will improve as he gets more comfortable. Also, I thought his receivers were better than advertised and I don't believe Olsen will be shut down every week. Finally, his job is as secure as anyone's so he will have the chance to work things out. When people make these initial evaluations after week 1 they need to look at more than the stats line. They need to take everything into consideration. Stats from one game are often very misleading.

 

[az_prof]

Regarding this point: 3) Hightower with 12 catches while Fitz and Boldin combined for 8," I think this is a great example of a good statistical performance that will NOT continue. Why? Hightower didn't run very well and Wells did. As the teams gets more confident in Wells he will be on the field more. Plus, I can't see a HB leading that team in looks very many weeks. This was an aberration. Hightower will continue to have value in PPR leagues but he won't be this dominant and he will likely lose carries quickly to Wells. I would say he is a sell HIGH.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

Jay Cutler is a great example. I'd trade FOR Jay Cutler all day today. I've seen way too much of him to think he's somehow turned permanently into the guy we saw last night. That was jitters + new receivers + Dom Capers + a very good Green Bay team.All but the new receivers will be different next week.

You mean when they play the Steelers? I'm thinking if you really want to trade for Cutler the price will be even lower next Monday.

With the likelihood that the Steelers stuff Forte and Polamalu likely out I think Cutler's a good bet next week.

 

[az_prof]

Great OP. But how can we separate things that are the "Real Deal" from the things that are "Week 1 Wonders"?

For example, Matt Schaub. This year's first game game was arguably worse than last year, not just because his stats are worse, but that more should be expected on an offense that returns 11 starters and the same coaching staff (minus Walter of course).

Schaub was my #1 QB value pick and i landed him in 2 leagues. Obviously I expect him to improve on this performance, but is it an overreaction to to think "maybe I was wrong" when I figured he was a top 5 QB if he stayed healthy for 16 games, or that he would be a Top 5 QB in Points Per Game?

Also, I'd love your input on my Week 1 over-reaction thread: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=488753

I wouldn't give up on Schaub? Why? Because he has played enought to make me believe in his talent (if he stays healthy). Moreover, the Jets Defense is very good. It was good last year but it looks even better under Ryan, who brought over the Baltimore attack style defense to an existing 3/4 scheme.

 

[az_prof]

Jay Cutler is a great example. I'd trade FOR Jay Cutler all day today. I've seen way too much of him to think he's somehow turned permanently into the guy we saw last night. That was jitters + new receivers + Dom Capers + a very good Green Bay team.All but the new receivers will be different next week.

You mean when they play the Steelers? I'm thinking if you really want to trade for Cutler the price will be even lower next Monday.

With the likelihood that the Steelers stuff Forte and Polamalu likely out I think Cutler's a good bet next week.

Maybe, but when Polamalu went out this week the Steeler's looked much more vulnerable.

 

[David Yudkin]

You guys are going too fast. I haven't finished making all my roster moves in acquiring all the new found studs from the preseason.

 

[Chaka]

Regarding this point: 3) Hightower with 12 catches while Fitz and Boldin combined for 8," I think this is a great example of a good statistical performance that will NOT continue. Why? Hightower didn't run very well and Wells did. As the teams gets more confident in Wells he will be on the field more. Plus, I can't see a HB leading that team in looks very many weeks. This was an aberration. Hightower will continue to have value in PPR leagues but he won't be this dominant and he will likely lose carries quickly to Wells. I would say he is a sell HIGH.

I think the real question about this game is whether the 49ers defense is as good as it looked on Sunday. When the Cardinals are forced to regularly check down to Tim Hightower you know the opposing defense is doing something very well.

 

[fsufan]

Can you really blame FF players for overreacting? They've been waiting for the NFL season to start for 4 months now. Its like when your a kid and you get a puzzle for Christmas. All that anticipation and excitement for nothing.

It's not about blame at all, it's about trying to remind people to relax and that their fantasy seasons aren't made or ruined regardless of what transpired this weekend.

I started 0-2 last season and won my league's SB. stay the courseI just think there is a lot of parity between players in today’s NFL

 

[Chaka]

Great OP. But how can we separate things that are the "Real Deal" from the things that are "Week 1 Wonders"?

For example, Matt Schaub. This year's first game game was arguably worse than last year, not just because his stats are worse, but that more should be expected on an offense that returns 11 starters and the same coaching staff (minus Walter of course).

Schaub was my #1 QB value pick and i landed him in 2 leagues. Obviously I expect him to improve on this performance, but is it an overreaction to to think "maybe I was wrong" when I figured he was a top 5 QB if he stayed healthy for 16 games, or that he would be a Top 5 QB in Points Per Game?

Also, I'd love your input on my Week 1 over-reaction thread: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=488753

I wouldn't give up on Schaub? Why? Because he has played enought to make me believe in his talent (if he stays healthy). Moreover, the Jets Defense is very good. It was good last year but it looks even better under Ryan, who brought over the Baltimore attack style defense to an existing 3/4 scheme.

I learned that I may have been drastically wrong about the prospects for the Jets defense this season. They looked incredible.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Jay Cutler is a great example. I'd trade FOR Jay Cutler all day today. I've seen way too much of him to think he's somehow turned permanently into the guy we saw last night. That was jitters + new receivers + Dom Capers + a very good Green Bay team.All but the new receivers will be different next week.

You mean when they play the Steelers? I'm thinking if you really want to trade for Cutler the price will be even lower next Monday.

That's probably true if you wanted to gamble and hope you could get him really low. But for most that I'm seeing, the panic is in full effect even now.J

The key is figuring out what we saw week 1 that will continue and what we can presume is a likely aberration. And then as you say, buy low and sell high. Jay Cutler is a perfect example and I am going to consider trying to acquire him myself. Why? He is learning a new system and will improve as he gets more comfortable. Also, I thought his receivers were better than advertised and I don't believe Olsen will be shut down every week. Finally, his job is as secure as anyone's so he will have the chance to work things out. When people make these initial evaluations after week 1 they need to look at more than the stats line. They need to take everything into consideration. Stats from one game are often very misleading.

That's exactly right, azprof. The trick is finding that right balance between jumping on (or off) early without jumping the gun. I learned that a while back when I was just convinced that Curtis Martin was an injury prone over hyped RB from Pitt. Kept saying he'd never do anything. We all know how that turned out. I should have been quicker to jump on that bandwagon. It's a fine line to balance though.J

 

[fozzy fosbourne]

As much as I want to ignore the week one panic and hype in fantasy sports each season, it sucks when another owner is paying more attention and fleeces another guy in a week 1 panic trade. Puts things in an icky situation because you don't want to be the ###### making all the lowball offers on week 1, but then you don't want to be wondering what the heck just happened when an owner offloads a guy like Slaton or Chris Johnson for a pupu platter and you didn't even know they were available.

So as much as I hate doing it, I always feel the need to put the feelers out there and see where the week one hysteria lies because someone in the league traditionally is going to take advantage of it.

 

[David Yudkin]

I learned that I may have been drastically wrong about the prospects for the Jets defense this season. They looked incredible.

Let's see how they do next week against NE first.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Interesting things I noticed........1) Only five guys ran for over a hundred yards and four of them were surprises (Peterson along with Bell, JJones, Rice and TJones)2) Only eight guys had over twenty carries (Bell, Forte, Peterson, Gore, Turner, Benson, Jones-Drew, and Thomas Jones)3) Hightower with 12 catches while Fitz and Boldin combined for 84) Forte and Steven Jackson each had zero catches

You're the new Wheelhouse!

 

[az_prof]

I am not a backer of Cutler at all, but he will do better than 50% completion rate and he still had 7.9 ypa. The big issue was the 1 TD and 4 ints. I am convinced that the ints will remain on the high side, but not to that extent.What I am confused about the most is that the two solid TEs combined for only two catches and Forte who was excellent all year catching the ball had none.

My guess would be Olsen was double-teamed and Cutler is less likely to make dump-offs to Forte than Orton was.

Were both TEs double teamed? I saw several occasions where Cutler threw directly into double coverage and mostly downfield. If Olsen was constantly double teamed and not open, then why not throw to Forte?

It really looked like Jay had radar lock on Bennett. He could very easily have had 5 picks if you remember the pass he threw to Bennett in quadruple coverage.

Bennett is a guy that intrigues me and I am trying to decide if he is a sell high or keep. He clearly was targeted a ton and did pretty well for a first time starter. I could see him catching 70 plus balls. Not sure if I am overreacting in a positive way though.

 

[Chaka]

I learned that I may have been drastically wrong about the prospects for the Jets defense this season. They looked incredible.

Let's see how they do next week against NE first.

Agreed, which is why I said "may have been" and "looked" and not "was" and "are".

 

[az_prof]

Regarding this point: 3) Hightower with 12 catches while Fitz and Boldin combined for 8," I think this is a great example of a good statistical performance that will NOT continue. Why? Hightower didn't run very well and Wells did. As the teams gets more confident in Wells he will be on the field more. Plus, I can't see a HB leading that team in looks very many weeks. This was an aberration. Hightower will continue to have value in PPR leagues but he won't be this dominant and he will likely lose carries quickly to Wells. I would say he is a sell HIGH.

I think the real question about this game is whether the 49ers defense is as good as it looked on Sunday. When the Cardinals are forced to regularly check down to Tim Hightower you know the opposing defense is doing something very well.

Good point. I watched the whole game and I can say that the 49ers defense wasn't a fluke, but at the same time, I got the impression that the Cards didn't prepare well and their offensive line was horrible. There was no intensity or rhythm for the Cards. I still don't know if was great play by the 49ers D or horrible play by the Card's offensive line. I will say this, that Wells found seams and ground out yards on the ground that Hightower could not. And if Wells played more then 49ers would have had to respect the run more and that in turn would have opened up some deep routes for the receivers and given Warner more time to find them. Also, Boldin didn't seem to be playing at full strength and with Breaston out, all the pressure was on Fitz. I am inclined to think that this game was an aberation more than the rule both for Cards offense and 49ers D.

 

[JohnnyU]

Can you really blame FF players for overreacting? They've been waiting for the NFL season to start for 4 months now. Its like when your a kid and you get a puzzle for Christmas. All that anticipation and excitement for nothing.

My granddaughter loves puzzles. She also likes to put them together turned over with the backs of the puzzle showing. I don't know how the hell she does that.