Hi Bloom.The group of receivers that Jacksonville has assembled is a very talented one but adjustments need to be made to consolidate talents and finally garner some fantasy value. The rocks of the receiving corps seem to be Reggie Williams and Matt Jones. While both have come under fire for lackluster play, the majority of that blame can be attributed to the lack of a stable QB situation in Jacksonville, essentially since their arrival. Further, most rest on the shoulders of Byron Leftwich, who when healthy, is a very capable NFL QB, but seems to be hurt more games than not. The first positive is both Reggie and Matt's splits with Leftwich. The progress they made with Byron at the helm was undeniable- while Jones only had 2 games with Leftwich before injuries really bogged them down, the pattern was there, 5 receptions and 6 receptions each for 70+ yards. While you might not blow fantasy opponents away with such stats, it adds up in the end. Given some room to slow down one may be looking at a 70-80 catch season with 1000+ yards. Solid. As for Reggie, there was a more defined body of work. Out of five games, Reggie caught less than 4 balls only once and through 5 games had 24 receptions- averaging roughly 5 a game. Again, allowing some leeway for drop off, he could have been realistically looking at a 65-75 catch season. Definitely a good possession receiver who will be on the field all the time due to his versatility to block and catch well. Best hands out of that veteran WR group. Popular opinion is that Wilford is the odd man out of the starting rotation. With the entrance of new OC Dirk Koetter, emphasis has been put on the deep passing game and requires adequate safety valves in case the deep option is taken away by safety help. Hence Wilford is the odd man out. In 2004-2005, he led the league in the inauspicious category of drops per catchable balls. While I cant find the link, it was a category made by that Football Scientist guy (KC Joyner) and is referenced from time to time on many Jaguars' message boards. Add to the fact that he is slow and runs sloppy routes and you have the answer. While his real value lies in the red-zone, the resurgence of other good options, such as MJD, Wrightster, Wiggins or M. Lewis don't really necessitate his need in that offense. While I'm sure he will retain a roster spot, his level of significance should be diminished. The newcomers, Dennis Northcutt, John Broussard, and Mike Walker area all speed demons who collectively should make an impact on the roster. Mike Walker is the favorite to take over the #3 WR spot because of his great hands. He immediately becomes the best pure pass catcher out of the receivers and has the deep speed to boot to get down field. Great jumper who can locate the ball and secure it so he immediately becomes a multi-faceted red-zone threat. While this may seem eerily similar to Matt Jones, you find that it certainly is the case with strength as well; both will have trouble getting off the jam but at this point, Walker has better a better blend of quickness and strength and should have an easier time beating the jam. Whichever proves to be more effective at getting through the jam should take an outside spot and the other should kick inside to play the slot. Either way, Koetter is insistant upon using the deep ball off playaction and all indications are that Walker has be best chance to be that beneficiary. However, if he proves to be a better off the jam, look for Matt Jones to move to the slot- a scary thought given his speed and catching ability. IMHO he is the best bet this year to break out and have a damn good season. As for Northcutt and Broussard, the former will be used primarily in ST considerations as all of the other receivers are better fits in the offense. He is smallish compared to the others and which he does have good speed, he should only be utilized on plays that specifically call for him to go deep. Hands have been a concern and he sees no better an option than the other Jags receivers who have size on him. Broussard is perhaps the biggest enigma in this offense. He is a pure burner, who has several long TD's during his tenure at SJSU. Great acceleration in yards 0-20 where he just blows by DB's and if he can catch the ball on the run, he is virtually uncatchable. However, he benefited from a very accurate QB at SJSU who repeatedly put the ball in a place where Broussard could just tuck and run for the score. Great route runner but his true value exists only when the ball is thrown to him on the run. Again, it remains to be seen what role he will have in this offense.
It is hard to see what Wilford brings that the other redwoods don't, except of course his propensity to drop the easy ones and catch the tough ones.What's most interesting to me about this situation is the possibility of Walker starting by year's end. With Jones injury history, it seems like Walker should get some spot starts, and I have a good feeling that he will convert on those, and give the Jags a good problem - three starting quality guys with only two spots.The WR who is a real wild card is Williams. He seemed to have a break out early last year, then disappeared.Williams and Jones have had so many fits and starts that despite being first round picks, I think Walker could pass one of them by the end of season... crazy?
, but as a rule, I'm going with the coach's opinion.
