Over/Underrated... (1 Viewer)

[Your Mother]

Is it me, or is Ian Kinsler being completely slept on? He has some mashers behind him, the same good park, he was having an insane year last year before the sports hernia derailed his season. I don't think it'll have any lingering effects going forward (I've had sports hernia surgery as well, and I was completely healed after 3 months, and never thought about it after 6).

Am I a jerk if I think he could do a semi-decent replication of Hanley Ramirez this year? The projections I've seen for him so far this year have just seemed incredibly low.

 

[guru_007]

In Bogart's 20 team mock draft, Kinsler was the 13th pick.

Personally, I think he's overrated

 

[MAC_32]

In Bogart's 20 team mock draft, Kinsler was the 13th pick.

Personally, I think he's overrated

He hasn't played more than 130 games in either of the last three seasons, relying on him for the duration would not be wise. I prefer Pedroia to Kinsler if I'm going 2B early.

I have a rather long list of over and under rated's so I'll just filter down to 5 each...and I'll skip over obvious over valued candidates like Gavin Floyd, Aubrey Huff, Adam Dunn, Howie Kendrick, etc.

Over rated

Adrian Gonzalez

Aramis Ramirez

Carlos Quentin

Scott Kazmir

Carl Pava...I mean AJ Burnett

Under rated

Robinson Cano

Matt Kemp

Shin-Soo Choo

Kevin Slowey

Wandy Rodriguez

 

[guru_007]

A lot of over-rated/under-rated banter really depends on the type of league you are in. For instance, Adam Dunn is overrated in standard 4x4 leagues, but underrated in 5x5 leagues that use OBP instead of average.

A few overrated guys (in my mind)

Jacoby Ellsbury

As a sox fan, I like the guy a lot, and he has a lot of potential, but he didn't exactly dominate last year with a .280 ba and .335 obp, this is not top of the order type numbers. Tons of speed, sure, but may lose ab's this year with a few slumps and Red Sox depth, getting drafted way too high, imo.

Fred Lewis

If it wasn't for the Giants, this guy wouldn't be in the majors. He may put up serviceable numbers, but 124K's in 468 ab's does not portend to great things. He'll be 29 this year, I can't imagine he's going to get any better.

Delmon Young

ugh. Got him last year, never again.

Underrated

Mark DeRosa

puts up serviceable numbers across the board (except steals), and qualifies at every position except maybe pitcher, maybe.

If I think of more, I'll add them

 

[cheese]

Overrated...

Chris Davis

Derek Lee

Brandon Phillips

Underrated...

Jake Peavy

Aaron Harang

Alfonso Soriano

 

[MAC_32]

Overrated...

Chris Davis

Derek Lee

Brandon Phillips

Underrated...

Jake Peavy

Aaron Harang

Alfonso Soriano

Between his elbow, declining stuff, declining periph's, and trade rumors I think Peavy's over rated, if anything. One that's not even on my cheat sheet in H2H leagues.

 

[MAC_32]

I am officially putting my stance on Ricky Nolasco, over rated. His K rate and periph's show 08 was not a fluke, but between the huge spike in pitch count and a scary pitch usage (addition of a cutter midseason, explains the jump in K rate and drop in BB rate, it's also not so friendly on the arm + heavy slider/curve%) and his current ADP being representative of the best case scenario (i.e. 2008 redux) I think expectations are way too high for this guy.

I'd rather take a shot on Jair Jurrjens, Wandy Rodriguez, or Johnny Cueto...and that's before taking into account ADP.

I'd also lump Dempster in with Nolasco, expectations are way too high for him too.

 

[D_Rock]

 

[Your Mother]

He hasn't played more than 130 games in either of the last three seasons, relying on him for the duration would not be wise. I prefer Pedroia to Kinsler if I'm going 2B early.

You realize he was out with a sports hernia last year, right? A wrist or knee would be a different story...

 

[the moops]

He hasn't played more than 130 games in either of the last three seasons, relying on him for the duration would not be wise. I prefer Pedroia to Kinsler if I'm going 2B early.

You realize he was out with a sports hernia last year, right? A wrist or knee would be a different story...

He still hasn't played more than 130 games in the past 3 years.Missed time in 06 from a thumb injury, in 07 from a foot injury.

 

[MAC_32]

He hasn't played more than 130 games in either of the last three seasons, relying on him for the duration would not be wise. I prefer Pedroia to Kinsler if I'm going 2B early.

You realize he was out with a sports hernia last year, right? A wrist or knee would be a different story...

He still hasn't played more than 130 games in the past 3 years.Missed time in 06 from a thumb injury, in 07 from a foot injury.

Yep, I like to make safer picks that early in the draft. I'd probably draft him if he fell out of the top 20 but that doesn't appear likely this year.

 

[Smack Tripper]

Overrated...Chris DavisDerek LeeBrandon PhillipsUnderrated...Jake PeavyAaron HarangAlfonso Soriano

Chris Davis overrated as compares to what? I dont' know where he's going in the drafts but if he's anywhere in the 15-20 range of 1b, I think he's got great value because that boy can mash and I think he could hang up a top 10 season. Phillips had a down year last year, but between the swipes and the jacks in that park, I like his 2b value.

 

[MAC_32]

Overrated...Chris DavisDerek LeeBrandon PhillipsUnderrated...Jake PeavyAaron HarangAlfonso Soriano

Chris Davis overrated as compares to what? I dont' know where he's going in the drafts but if he's anywhere in the 15-20 range of 1b, I think he's got great value because that boy can mash and I think he could hang up a top 10 season. Phillips had a down year last year, but between the swipes and the jacks in that park, I like his 2b value.

Davis is being drafted like a top 10 1B/3B between pick 60 and 70. I liked him two months ago when he was being drafted 100+. Now? Not so much. Too risky to be taken that early, I'd rather draft an Abreu or a Cano at that point in the draft.

 

[regularguy]

Overrated...Chris DavisDerek LeeBrandon PhillipsUnderrated...Jake PeavyAaron HarangAlfonso Soriano

Chris Davis overrated as compares to what? I dont' know where he's going in the drafts but if he's anywhere in the 15-20 range of 1b, I think he's got great value because that boy can mash and I think he could hang up a top 10 season. Phillips had a down year last year, but between the swipes and the jacks in that park, I like his 2b value.

Davis is being drafted like a top 10 1B/3B between pick 60 and 70. I liked him two months ago when he was being drafted 100+. Now? Not so much. Too risky to be taken that early, I'd rather draft an Abreu or a Cano at that point in the draft.

Yep, Davis is everybody's hot pick this year. Same goes for Weiters. You're not going to get value for either of these guys when you consider where you'll have to draft them.

 

[Onions]

Scott Baker is incredibly underrated. He finished the 2008 season with an 11-4 record, 3.45 ERA , 1.18 WHIP and 3.4/1 K/BB ratio, yet nobody ever speaks about him.

And his teammate, Kevin Slowey is also underrated.

 

[MAC_32]

Scott Baker is incredibly underrated. He finished the 2008 season with an 11-4 record, 3.45 ERA , 1.18 WHIP and 3.4/1 K/BB ratio, yet nobody ever speaks about him.And his teammate, Kevin Slowey is also underrated.

I have both in my top 25 SP's, they're drafted like fringe top 50 SP's. Bargain shopping.

 

[pantagrapher]

A month ago I would have called Nelson Cruz underrated. Now he's properly rated and will soon be overrated.

Lance Berkman is overrated. .259 w/7 homers after the break last season.

 

[Steelers4Life]

Don't sleep on Brett Myers.

He was a stud starting pitcher in the making a couple yeas ago before he was moved to the bullpen. He struggled to get into a rhythm in the first half last year, but finished up 7-4 with an ERA barely over 3. He reportedly lost a lot of weight and reported in far better condition this year and expressed a desire to lead by example.

He could be a very cheap 15 win, 200 IP, 200 K pitcher.

 

[Eephus]

A month ago I would have called Nelson Cruz underrated. Now he's properly rated and will soon be overrated.Lance Berkman is overrated. .259 w/7 homers after the break last season.

Cruz is overrated on the basis of one hot month. He's 28 already and doesn't have a lot of upside. The SO rate is a reason he's never played a full season in the majors yet. Plus now there's the corpse of Andruw Jones to contend with.I disagree about Berkman. Again, I think you're overreacting to a small two month sample. He's been a consistent producer for nearly a decade. I wouldn't bank on 18 SBs again but he's a safe, unsexy pick especially in OBP leagues.Billy Butler should stabilize somewhere between original expectations and last season's performance. I'd rather draft Butler eight rounds after Chris Davis.Good calls on Baker, Slowey and Shields. Guys with low W rates don't get as much love as pitchers with high K rates, but WHIP counts just as much as Ks in the final standings.Yahoo currently ranks Travis Hafner at #232 (one position below Smoltz). He obviously comes with huge risk but I'd consider burning a 15th rounder on Pronk. He's definitely one of the guys to watch in spring training.Gil Meche's contract doesn't look like such a big joke now. Yahoo has him at the #66 SP, which seems about 20 positions too low.

 

[Balco]

Don't sleep on Brett Myers.He was a stud starting pitcher in the making a couple yeas ago before he was moved to the bullpen. He struggled to get into a rhythm in the first half last year, but finished up 7-4 with an ERA barely over 3. He reportedly lost a lot of weight and reported in far better condition this year and expressed a desire to lead by example.He could be a very cheap 15 win, 200 IP, 200 K pitcher.

 

[Eephus]

Don't sleep on Brett Myers.He was a stud starting pitcher in the making a couple yeas ago before he was moved to the bullpen. He struggled to get into a rhythm in the first half last year, but finished up 7-4 with an ERA barely over 3. He reportedly lost a lot of weight and reported in far better condition this year and expressed a desire to lead by example.He could be a very cheap 15 win, 200 IP, 200 K pitcher.

...except for the part about leading by example. No matter what his role and how much weight he loses, we're still talking about Brett Myers.

 

[Balco]

Underrated:

Jason Kubel

Manny Parra

Alex Gordon

Hank Blalock

Overrated:

Carlos Gomez

Francisco Rodriguez

Derek Jeter

 

[Smack Tripper]

Overrated...Chris DavisDerek LeeBrandon PhillipsUnderrated...Jake PeavyAaron HarangAlfonso Soriano

Chris Davis overrated as compares to what? I dont' know where he's going in the drafts but if he's anywhere in the 15-20 range of 1b, I think he's got great value because that boy can mash and I think he could hang up a top 10 season. Phillips had a down year last year, but between the swipes and the jacks in that park, I like his 2b value.

Davis is being drafted like a top 10 1B/3B between pick 60 and 70. I liked him two months ago when he was being drafted 100+. Now? Not so much. Too risky to be taken that early, I'd rather draft an Abreu or a Cano at that point in the draft.

Yep, Davis is everybody's hot pick this year. Same goes for Weiters. You're not going to get value for either of these guys when you consider where you'll have to draft them.

I'd agree with this, but he really perks back up for me if he gets 3b qualification. How much work is he expected to get there?

 

[Yankee23Fan]

I can't really say that anyone showing up in my overall top 50 is that overrated. Maybe a guy at 4 should be at 9 or vice versa. To me, once you get into the 10th round and beyond all bets are off anyway and league setup, culture and rules take over to the extreme. So the only over/under guys I would look at are my 51-100 players.

Abreu might be a tad underrated given his new locale, but everyone is going to think that, right? All the relievers that fall there are overrated by default. Jeter may be just a tad underrated this year given Tex in the lineup behind him. Zambrano seems to have fallen significantly and I always liked him. I think Lackey is slightly underrated, but I'm talking maybe a round or two at most.

I don't know. Initially, the general consesus stuff seems to not be coming too far out of left field.

 

[Encyclopedia Brown]

Underrated: Stephen DrewPaul Maholm

Is it me, or is Ian Kinsler being completely slept on?

Jose Lopez is the 2B that I think is being underrated. I don't believe last year was a fluke; it seems that a lot of people dverrated:Joe SaundersDerrek Lee

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Carlos Quentin has a long way to fall.

Matt Kemp is underrated in re-drafts.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Underrated: Paul Maholm

Since when has a Pirate pitcher repeated a good season? Duke? Nope. Snell? Nope. Gorzelanny? Hell no. What makes you think Maholm will be any different? His pre-2008 numbers are ordinary at best.

 

[Encyclopedia Brown]

Since when has a Pirate pitcher repeated a good season?

John Tudor?Anyway, I don't think Maholm will give Lincecum or Haren a run for the Cy, but I think he will win double digits, and put up decent ERA/WHIP.