Overvalued Fantasy Stocks, Undervalued Fantasy Stocks (1 Viewer)

[KCC]

Yeah, it's early and player's fantasy value will be influenced by the draft, potential trades, injuries, and preseason play/hype, but I always enjoy hearing what people think of as value picks and value killers.

Felix Jones is my pick for undervalued. I think he will put up Barber like numbers and will probably go a few rounds later in most drafts than MBIII.

Terrell Owens is my pick for overvalued. His name recognition and people's memories of his past performances when signed to a new team will have some thinking he will light it up in Buffalo like he did in Philly and Dallas. I don't buy it. He'll have the worst QB he's ever been paired with throwing him the ball, Evans will be getting a lot of looks, and, although he keeps in stellar shape, his age and playing style make him more prone to getting banged up.

 

[Moe Green]

Overvalued: Tony Romo, Steven Jackson, Roy Williams

Undervalued: David Garrard, Brandon Jacobs, Greg Camarillo

 

[jurb26]

Overvalued: Tony Romo, Steven Jackson, Roy Williams

Undervalued: David Garrard, Brandon Jacobs, Greg Camarillo

People keep wanting to say this, but I'm just not seeing it. I just picked up Williams in the 6th round of a draft.

 

[mmarsian]

I don't see Steven jackson being overvalued, nor undervalued, for that matter. He seems like a lot of people see him, notice him, but don't really see the need to reach for him.

 

[Byron_nyc]

it is early, but here goes:

overvalued:

Tomlinson, Forte, DWilli -- all first rounders who IMO wind up out of the top ten at their position.

undervalued:

Dwayne Bowe, Ted Ginn, Anthony Gonzalez

 

[PranksterJD]

Overvalued: Tony Romo, Steven Jackson, Roy WilliamsUndervalued: David Garrard, Brandon Jacobs, Greg Camarillo

I just saw Brandon Jacobs go for almost the exact same deal I paid for Steven Jackson ( Ward + 2 late 1sts ), and given that Jacobs' best year to date seems to be near the floor for Jackson, I'm not sure I can agree with them being in the categories you've got them in. Feels more like they're both valued where they belong. The rest of your guys I absolutely agree with.To not throw stones..Overvalued: Jonathan Stewart ( for 2009 ), Ronnie Brown, Pierre Thomas, Brandon Marshall, Santonio HolmesUndervalued: Portis, Derrick Ward, Kevin Curtis, Burleson, Shaub

 

[blend]

Overvalued: Tony Romo, Steven Jackson, Roy Williams

Undervalued: David Garrard, Brandon Jacobs, Greg Camarillo

You think Camarillo is going to be able to come back from his ACL and unseat D. Bess?I think Bess will be undervalued (esp in PPR leagues)

 

[Avery]

it is early, but here goes:

overvalued:

Tomlinson, Forte, DWilli -- all first rounders who IMO wind up out of the top ten at their position.

undervalued:

Dwayne Bowe, Ted Ginn, Anthony Gonzalez

Maybe I'm in the minority but I see Tomlinson's value in a free fall to the point that he is teetering on undervalued.

 

[FUBAR]

I'll try 3 levels for each. (although it's hard to call a penny stock overrated)

OVER

Elite - TO

Mid - Antonio Bryant

Penny stocks - Nick Folk

UNDER

Elite - Portis / LT

Mid - Braylon Edwards

Penny stocks - Devone Bess

 

[FUBAR]

it is early, but here goes:

overvalued:

Tomlinson, Forte, DWilli -- all first rounders who IMO wind up out of the top ten at their position.

undervalued:

Dwayne Bowe, Ted Ginn, Anthony Gonzalez

Maybe I'm in the minority but I see Tomlinson's value in a free fall to the point that he is teetering on undervalued.

I nabbed him at 1.16 in WSL4.

 

[Moe Green]

Overvalued: Tony Romo, Steven Jackson, Roy Williams

Undervalued: David Garrard, Brandon Jacobs, Greg Camarillo

People keep wanting to say this, but I'm just not seeing it. I just picked up Williams in the 6th round of a draft.

I'd pick him up around there if he's available -- I guarantee he'll be going earlier than that in most of the drafts I participate in.

 

[Chachi]

Overvalued: MATT FORTE, TJ Houshmandzadeh, LT, Michael Bush, Brandon Marshall, Phillip Rivers

Undervalued: Chad Johnson, Darren McFadden, Tony Romo, Derrick Ward

 

[billyjoe]

it is early, but here goes:

overvalued:

Tomlinson, Forte, DWilli -- all first rounders who IMO wind up out of the top ten at their position.

undervalued:

Dwayne Bowe, Ted Ginn, Anthony Gonzalez

Maybe I'm in the minority but I see Tomlinson's value in a free fall to the point that he is teetering on undervalued.

I nabbed him at 1.16 in WSL4.

Bingo. LT in a RBBC? That's gold. He'll get all the TDs, stay fresh, explosive, healthy. 240 carries is exactly what LT needs, 50 catches, and he's a lock for 10 TDs. Upside near 16. LT can't bust out those 340 carry years anymore, but he can be lethal in a RBBC. RBBC isn't a bad thing when you're the goal line back, and still getting 200+ carries. Look what MJD has done. Getting the bulk of the TDs makes up for lack of carries. Plus LT is great catching the ball.

Dynasty wise his future is limited, I'd guess 2 good years. But for the price, it's becoming crazy good value.

 

[mikel0254]

Overvalued: Tony Romo, Steven Jackson, Roy Williams

Undervalued: David Garrard, Brandon Jacobs, Greg Camarillo

I just saw Brandon Jacobs go for almost the exact same deal I paid for Steven Jackson ( Ward + 2 late 1sts ), and given that Jacobs' best year to date seems to be near the floor for Jackson, I'm not sure I can agree with them being in the categories you've got them in. Feels more like they're both valued where they belong. The rest of your guys I absolutely agree with.To not throw stones..

Overvalued: Jonathan Stewart ( for 2009 ), Ronnie Brown, Pierre Thomas, Brandon Marshall, Santonio Holmes

Undervalued: Portis, Derrick Ward, Kevin Curtis, Burleson, Shaub

Seeing as I work in the investment world, I'll use a disclaimer that's industry-side and very fitting in this situation - Past performance does not guarantee future performance. I think SJax will be solid, but not beginning of the 1st round solid. However, I think with Ward gone, Jacobs will outperform last year. I think Jacobs will be close to top 5 overall, where I see SJax being somewhere between 10-15 overall. Both have injury risks so I'm not taking that into consideration.My pre-draft overvalued/undervalued: Under - Portis, Over - Forte

 

[3nOut]

Hard to say, but from what I've been hearing on these boards the past few weeks:

QB

Undervalued: Schaub - will be top 5 this year if he stays healthy

Overvalued: Cassel - Need to see more before I put him as top 12

RB

Undervalued: Jacobs. Haven't seen him ranked anywhere in top 12 yet but will be top 5 by end of season

Overvalued: Marion Barber. I just don't see why he's getting all the love. Especially now with Felix and Choice there.

WR

Undervalued:

Overvalued: Tough call between Marshall, White, and Roy Williams. Marshalls stock will drop with suspension bringing him where he should be. Still not a believer in White, but I gotta go with Roy. He will be a WR1 but not as high as everyone thinks (with TO leaving)

TE

Undervalued: Keller. Carlson is the newcomer that has been getting all the attention, but Keller will be the better TE (IMO)

Overvalued: Winslow. How many good years has he really had. Maybe he did, it just seems like a while.

 

[PranksterJD]

Overvalued: Tony Romo, Steven Jackson, Roy Williams

Undervalued: David Garrard, Brandon Jacobs, Greg Camarillo

I just saw Brandon Jacobs go for almost the exact same deal I paid for Steven Jackson ( Ward + 2 late 1sts ), and given that Jacobs' best year to date seems to be near the floor for Jackson, I'm not sure I can agree with them being in the categories you've got them in. Feels more like they're both valued where they belong. The rest of your guys I absolutely agree with.To not throw stones..

Overvalued: Jonathan Stewart ( for 2009 ), Ronnie Brown, Pierre Thomas, Brandon Marshall, Santonio Holmes

Undervalued: Portis, Derrick Ward, Kevin Curtis, Burleson, Shaub

Seeing as I work in the investment world, I'll use a disclaimer that's industry-side and very fitting in this situation - Past performance does not guarantee future performance. I think SJax will be solid, but not beginning of the 1st round solid. However, I think with Ward gone, Jacobs will outperform last year. I think Jacobs will be close to top 5 overall, where I see SJax being somewhere between 10-15 overall. Both have injury risks so I'm not taking that into consideration.My pre-draft overvalued/undervalued: Under - Portis, Over - Forte

A very fair point, but that doesn't mean I can completely throw out past performance when trying to forecast future success. To a certain degree, I have to use historic trends to make a judgment.With Jackson, if you're willing to throw out injury possibilities and still think he's only in the 10-15 range, that's your call ad I can respect it. But IMO if he plays a full 16 he's a lock for top 10. He's never been out of this range in PPG, and I don't see a reason why he would fall out in 2009. Not a whole lot more can go wrong for him.

Another part of my argument is that Jackson's not likely to be taken at the beginning of the first. CBS's current rankings ( the best I've got in March without a decent ADP ) has him at #16 overall, and RB11. He probably pushes up to the end of the first round ( drafted 7-10 or so ) by the time the season rolls around, but I wouldn't call that dramatically overvalued.

 

[PranksterJD]

Undervalued: Haven't seen him ranked anywhere in top 12 yet but will be top 5 by end of season

Overvalued: Marion Barber. I just don't see why he's getting all the love. Especially now with Felix and Choice there.

This guy **is** going to be good.

TE

Undervalued: Keller. Carlson is the newcomer that has been getting all the attention, but Keller will be the better TE (IMO)

Overvalued: Winslow. How many good years has he really had. Maybe he did, it just seems like a while.

He was #6 and #4 in TE scoring in 2006 and 2007, respectively. He's pretty good.

 

[gianmarco]

This is from a dynasty standpoint and ppr (FWIW)

Overvalued:

QB: Cassel, Matt Ryan

RB: Lynch, Barber, Ronnie Brown

WR: Wayne, Braylon, VJax, Agonz, and of course Roy Williams

TE: D. Clark

Undervalued:

QB: Brady, Peyton, Schaub

RB: DeAngelo, Slaton, Grant, P. Thomas, Jacobs, K. Smith

WR: Randy Moss, A. Bryant, Colston

TE: Gonzo

Some of these are moreso than others. But, in general, these are guys I see being drafted/traded close to their ceilings if overrated and close to their floors if underrated.

 

[Sea Bass]

R. Brown - uv

 

[PranksterJD]

QB: Brady, Peyton, Schaub

RB: DeAngelo, Slaton, Grant, P. Thomas, Jacobs

WR: Randy Moss, A. Bryant, Colston

TE: Gonzo

Slaton just went before both Steven Jackson and Larry Fitz in my non-PPR dynasty replacement draft. DeAngelo was the #1 overall scoring RB last year. How much more value to you think these kids are gonna get?

 

[fsufan]

what about a McGahee? is he done? will be bounce back from a bad 2008 season?

 

[gianmarco]

QB: Brady, Peyton, Schaub

RB: DeAngelo, Slaton, Grant, P. Thomas, Jacobs

WR: Randy Moss, A. Bryant, Colston

TE: Gonzo

Slaton just went before both Steven Jackson and Larry Fitz in my non-PPR dynasty replacement draft. DeAngelo was the #1 overall scoring RB last year. How much more value to you think these kids are gonna get?

Hopefully you don't think your 1 draft constitutes the general consensus. While this isn't the final word, this recent polling shows something completely different:Recent RB rankings per FBG polls

SJax #3

Chris Johnson #4

Forte #6

DeAngelo #8

Slaton #14

This is what my undervalued perception is related to.

 

[PranksterJD]

QB: Brady, Peyton, Schaub

RB: DeAngelo, Slaton, Grant, P. Thomas, Jacobs

WR: Randy Moss, A. Bryant, Colston

TE: Gonzo

Slaton just went before both Steven Jackson and Larry Fitz in my non-PPR dynasty replacement draft. DeAngelo was the #1 overall scoring RB last year. How much more value to you think these kids are gonna get?

Hopefully you don't think your 1 draft constitutes the general consensus. While this isn't the final word, this recent polling shows something completely different:Recent RB rankings per FBG polls

SJax #3

Chris Johnson #4

Forte #6

DeAngelo #8

Slaton #14

This is what my undervalued perception is related to.

Gotcha, and that makes sense. I stopped paying attention to those polls when he kept taking the 2nd place guy as well. In any case, I think the SP polls for all positions are solid examples, but I'm not sure they have the groupthink mentality that they're supposed to be good for.One the fair weather crowd comes back to football I think guys like Chris Johnson and Steven Jackson will fall and Deangelo and Slaton will rise, but you're right on the money with them based on the polls, especially Slaton. I'd be ready to slaughter people if I could get him as the 14th RB off the board.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Dynasty

Overvalued

QB) Romo - Still might be an OK weekly starter, but his days as a top 5 QB are over.

RB) LT - Somebody will draft him in the first 30 picks in almost every initial dynasty draft, he is almost worthles at this point.

WR) Roy Williams - He wont hit 1000 yards receiving, and most people will have him as their #2 WR.

Undervalued

QB) Schaub - He will be considered a top 5 dynasty QB by week 8 of 2009.

RB) Kevin Smith - Isnt considered a top 20 RB in dynasty leagues, that will change by the end of 2009.

WR) Mark Clayton - This is more of a longshot, but he can be had for next to nothing, and im thinking could put together a solid season if they let Flacco throw a bit more.

 

[dmac37]

Undervalued

Texans Offense, they have been showing signs and I think 2009 they take a big step to one of the elite offenses.

Overvalued

Cowboys Offense, Romo could have problems without TO and the pressure to win the big games may start to get to him. The RB's are talented but may cancel each other out.

Could be a new sheriff in the Lone Star State

 

[3nOut]

Undervalued: Haven't seen him ranked anywhere in top 12 yet but will be top 5 by end of season

Overvalued: Marion Barber. I just don't see why he's getting all the love. Especially now with Felix and Choice there.

This guy **is** going to be good.

TE

Undervalued: Keller. Carlson is the newcomer that has been getting all the attention, but Keller will be the better TE (IMO)

Overvalued: Winslow. How many good years has he really had. Maybe he did, it just seems like a while.

He was #6 and #4 in TE scoring in 2006 and 2007, respectively. He's pretty good.

Thanks Prankster, nice catch.

 

[stewartcjae]

Undervalued

Texans Offense, they have been showing signs and I think 2009 they take a big step to one of the elite offenses.

Overvalued

Cowboys Offense, Romo could have problems without TO and the pressure to win the big games may start to get to him. The RB's are talented but may cancel each other out.

Could be a new sheriff in the Lone Star State

With everyone stating Romo, he might end up being undervalued by the time drafts roll around.

 

[-baller]

undervalued:

brady

moss

welker

taylor

pats def

 

[brednbuddah]

if I only get to pick one...

overvalued: Chris Johnson

got him at 7.8 in a 14 team redraft last year, now seeing him go in the first round - sorry, not me.

undervalued: Tom Brady

as much as I hate to admit it, he's the terminator. he'll be back...

 

[travdogg]

Undervalued:

McNabb, pass first offense, he seemed to get back to running after the benching and he'll have a healthy Curtis along with an improved Jackson and Celek.

McFadden, let me state that I'm a true believer, he's an elite talent who was hurt all of this past year and still looked good when he played. Bush isn't near the threat some think. Health is his only concern.

Wayne, 1,100-6 is a nice floor. Along with everyone else I suspect he'll be better with Harrison gone. His 2007 season is a fair expectation.

Keller, he's the #2 on that team for now, and he's very talented and will likely be a full time player from now on.

Overvalued:

Schaub, classic case of a guy being so underrated that he's now overrated. I like him as a QB2, but I don't trust him enough to be a starter yet.

Slaton, I'm one of those people who can't really see him doing as well as he did last year. There was a great post about how when a rookie back has a big year, he's considered the next big thing. I'm not convinced Slaton isn't going to be another Kevin Jones.

S.Smith, I think Delhomme is losing it and the Panthers are likely going to continue evolving into being arguably the leagues most run heavy team. Smith's still great but I think he'll be closer to being WR #10 than WR #1.

Cooley, Set a career high in both catches and yards this season, but only had 1 TD. Usually TDs are inconsistent and yards and catches are better stats to go by. In this case I disagree, Cooley just isn't a part of Jim Zorn's offense in the red zone and if any WR steps up this year it will come at Cooley's expense. He's still a TE1, but he's very much a low end guy after a couple years of being a top-5ish guy.

 

[LBH]

overvalued

QB-M.Ryan- I just want to see one elite season of statistical production before i start annointing him a top 5 or 6 dynasty QB

RB-W.Parker- His value is not what it was but ive been seeing him go for some pretty high rookie picks. Personally, i thought M.Moore looked like the best RB on the Steelers last season, and I doubt Mendenhall is going anywhere soon

WR-Roy Williams- Let somebody else draft this underachieving injury waiting to happen. Ill spend less on aquiring Miles Austin and be a lot happier in the long run

TE-I cant think of any TEs that really stand out as being overvalued. Id probably sell Winslow if I had him on any rosters

undervalued

QB-Brett Ratliff- He will cost almost nothing if youre not in a league with me, and hes going to be a stud. Its not just blind homerism

RB-Leon Washington- I think Rex Ryan is going to let Schottenheimer run the offense the way he wants to, and I believe Mangini was a big reason Leon wasnt more involved in the offense since he was drafted. Look for Leon to be on the field a lot more, especially if Ryan wasnt BS'n us about taking Washington off returns

WR-J.Cotchery-Brett Favre killed the year end fantasy stats for all Jets recievers with a horrible 5 game stretch to close the season. Cotchery is a reliable possesion WR that will put up big PPR numbers with the Canton bound Ratliff on the rise

TE-D.Keller- see a theme here? Guy has tremendous talent as a reciever on a team lacking a quality #2 option at WR opposite Cotchery. Hes only scratching the surface

Defense-Jets- They were a solid fantasy defense in 08 and now they have an aggressive playcaller in Ryan to rack up the sack count. Also upgraded 3 positions via trade/FA

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

overvalued

QB-M.Ryan- I just want to see one elite season of statistical production before i start annointing him a top 5 or 6 dynasty QB

RB-W.Parker- His value is not what it was but ive been seeing him go for some pretty high rookie picks. Personally, i thought M.Moore looked like the best RB on the Steelers last season, and I doubt Mendenhall is going anywhere soon

WR-Roy Williams- Let somebody else draft this underachieving injury waiting to happen. Ill spend less on aquiring Miles Austin and be a lot happier in the long run

TE-I cant think of any TEs that really stand out as being overvalued. Id probably sell Winslow if I had him on any rosters

undervalued

QB-Brett Ratliff- He will cost almost nothing if youre not in a league with me, and hes going to be a stud. Its not just blind homerism

RB-Leon Washington- I think Rex Ryan is going to let Schottenheimer run the offense the way he wants to, and I believe Mangini was a big reason Leon wasnt more involved in the offense since he was drafted. Look for Leon to be on the field a lot more, especially if Ryan wasnt BS'n us about taking Washington off returns

WR-J.Cotchery-Brett Favre killed the year end fantasy stats for all Jets recievers with a horrible 5 game stretch to close the season. Cotchery is a reliable possesion WR that will put up big PPR numbers with the Canton bound Ratliff on the rise

TE-D.Keller- see a theme here? Guy has tremendous talent as a reciever on a team lacking a quality #2 option at WR opposite Cotchery. Hes only scratching the surface

Defense-Jets- They were a solid fantasy defense in 08 and now they have an aggressive playcaller in Ryan to rack up the sack count. Also upgraded 3 positions via trade/FA

sure are a lot of undervalued Jets ... Thomas Jones only one left out ...?

 

[Cookiemonster]

A guy that finished high in my league, and has posted a pretty good PPG even before he was given the full-time starting gig but gets NO LOVE...

Lance Moore. Henderson & Meechum seem to get more pub than this guy. Honorable mention - A.Bryant.

Overvalued - Royal. Cutler is pissy, Marshall will be suspended then let to kick rocks in FA. Denver is in shambles at RB and has Buckhalter as the likely starter. Next, they turn all their attention to the defense but decide to try a 3-4??? He'll get some garbage stats, but the offense won't be on the field enough, and Marshall won't be there to take attention from the secondaries.

 

[LBH]

overvalued

QB-M.Ryan- I just want to see one elite season of statistical production before i start annointing him a top 5 or 6 dynasty QB

RB-W.Parker- His value is not what it was but ive been seeing him go for some pretty high rookie picks. Personally, i thought M.Moore looked like the best RB on the Steelers last season, and I doubt Mendenhall is going anywhere soon

WR-Roy Williams- Let somebody else draft this underachieving injury waiting to happen. Ill spend less on aquiring Miles Austin and be a lot happier in the long run

TE-I cant think of any TEs that really stand out as being overvalued. Id probably sell Winslow if I had him on any rosters

undervalued

QB-Brett Ratliff- He will cost almost nothing if youre not in a league with me, and hes going to be a stud. Its not just blind homerism

RB-Leon Washington- I think Rex Ryan is going to let Schottenheimer run the offense the way he wants to, and I believe Mangini was a big reason Leon wasnt more involved in the offense since he was drafted. Look for Leon to be on the field a lot more, especially if Ryan wasnt BS'n us about taking Washington off returns

WR-J.Cotchery-Brett Favre killed the year end fantasy stats for all Jets recievers with a horrible 5 game stretch to close the season. Cotchery is a reliable possesion WR that will put up big PPR numbers with the Canton bound Ratliff on the rise

TE-D.Keller- see a theme here? Guy has tremendous talent as a reciever on a team lacking a quality #2 option at WR opposite Cotchery. Hes only scratching the surface

Defense-Jets- They were a solid fantasy defense in 08 and now they have an aggressive playcaller in Ryan to rack up the sack count. Also upgraded 3 positions via trade/FA

sure are a lot of undervalued Jets ... Thomas Jones only one left out ...?

oh i left him out on purpose. I did want to add Clowney though

 

[cstu]

it is early, but here goes:

overvalued:

Tomlinson, Forte, DWilli -- all first rounders who IMO wind up out of the top ten at their position.

undervalued:

Dwayne Bowe, Ted Ginn, Anthony Gonzalez

Maybe I'm in the minority but I see Tomlinson's value in a free fall to the point that he is teetering on undervalued.

I nabbed him at 1.16 in WSL4.

Bingo. LT in a RBBC? That's gold. He'll get all the TDs, stay fresh, explosive, healthy. 240 carries is exactly what LT needs, 50 catches, and he's a lock for 10 TDs. Upside near 16. LT can't bust out those 340 carry years anymore, but he can be lethal in a RBBC. RBBC isn't a bad thing when you're the goal line back, and still getting 200+ carries. Look what MJD has done. Getting the bulk of the TDs makes up for lack of carries. Plus LT is great catching the ball.

Dynasty wise his future is limited, I'd guess 2 good years. But for the price, it's becoming crazy good value.

If LT is healthy this year, last year's numbers are the absolute floor - which was #6 in PPR.

 

[CBower4545]

Hard to say, but from what I've been hearing on these boards the past few weeks:

RB

Undervalued: Jacobs. Haven't seen him ranked anywhere in top 12 yet but will be top 5 by end of season

How exactly does top 5 happen?Even if he stays healthy, he will get 16-17 carries per game. He will need to maintain a 5.0 Y/R and get at least 15 tds just to put up borderline top 5 numbers. Let's say 16.8 carries per game 16 games 5.0 Y/R and 15 tds. That 1,344 yards rushed 15 tds and he will get virtually nill from the passing game. So that 224 fantasy points maybe up to 235 with passing. Last 4 years:

08 #5 RB 239

07 #5 RB 227

06 #5 RB 258

05 #6 RB 245

Knowing that he probly needs to get in to the 240 to 250 range. IMO he will need 18+ tds, which has only happened about 20 times in the history of the NFL and he will have to do it with a smaller number of touches then those 20 have done it.

It has nothing to with Jacobs talent or effectiveness or even health. The top 5 when is reserved for RB that will get a high number of touches. Jacobs will not reach that number as the Giants have shown to use him. He would have to stay healthy, have a ridiculous season, and count on a average year to sneak into the top 5.

Top 5 is his ceiling. Thats why Jacobs is ranked around 12 and should be. It's hard to rank a guy with limited upside much higher. Then you add in the fact that he has some durability concern and could very reasonable miss the top 12.

I just don't see the under valued argument and definitely don't see the top 5 argument.

 

[cstu]

Undervalued:

McNabb, pass first offense, he seemed to get back to running after the benching and he'll have a healthy Curtis along with an improved Jackson and Celek.

McFadden, let me state that I'm a true believer, he's an elite talent who was hurt all of this past year and still looked good when he played. Bush isn't near the threat some think. Health is his only concern.

Wayne, 1,100-6 is a nice floor. Along with everyone else I suspect he'll be better with Harrison gone. His 2007 season is a fair expectation.

Keller, he's the #2 on that team for now, and he's very talented and will likely be a full time player from now on.

Overvalued:

Schaub, classic case of a guy being so underrated that he's now overrated. I like him as a QB2, but I don't trust him enough to be a starter yet.

Slaton, I'm one of those people who can't really see him doing as well as he did last year. There was a great post about how when a rookie back has a big year, he's considered the next big thing. I'm not convinced Slaton isn't going to be another Kevin Jones.

S.Smith, I think Delhomme is losing it and the Panthers are likely going to continue evolving into being arguably the leagues most run heavy team. Smith's still great but I think he'll be closer to being WR #10 than WR #1.

Cooley, Set a career high in both catches and yards this season, but only had 1 TD. Usually TDs are inconsistent and yards and catches are better stats to go by. In this case I disagree, Cooley just isn't a part of Jim Zorn's offense in the red zone and if any WR steps up this year it will come at Cooley's expense. He's still a TE1, but he's very much a low end guy after a couple years of being a top-5ish guy.

I consider his 1 TD last year a fluke since he's had at least 6 TD's in his four other seasons. 80/800 is an elite level for TE's, here's a list of the 14 TE's in NFL history that have done it:Cooley

Gonzalez (4)

Witten (3)

Winslow (2)

Gates (2)

Eric Johnson

Sharpe (3)

Coates (2)

Marv Cook

Keith Jackson

Christensen (4)

Newsome (2)

Winslow I (3)

Dave Parks

 

[•TheRealMcCoy]

Overvalued: Tony Romo, Steven Jackson, Roy WilliamsUndervalued: David Garrard, Brandon Jacobs, Greg Camarillo

I hope everyone keeps saying this about S Jax!!

 

[Tanner9919]

OVER:

MJD, Steven Jackson, Westbrook, McNabb, 'the Denver RB' - all of them - , T. Hightower, Randy Moss, L. Coles, TJ Housh., McFadden ( two turf toes?), Tony Gonzalez ( new offense might not use the TE position as much as the previous regime(s) did), Julius Jones/Duckett, Alex Smith, A. Bryant, ( one year wonder?), D. Anderson, Jamal Lewis, McGahee, Marshawn Lynch, Lee Evans, Sidney Rice, Rosenfels,

Under rated:

Portis, B. Jacobs, Bowe, Ward, Cutler, Matt Ryan, Owen Daniels, Boldin, Felix Jones ( if he can stay healthy), A. Bradshaw ( esp. now after Ward's departure), Matt Cassell, LJ - new offense in KC, lots of draws and passes to the RB's, KEvin Smith, Steve Slaton, Shaub, Le 'Ron McClain, Ted Ginn, Cedric Benson...

 

[Tanner9919]

Overvalued: Tony Romo, Steven Jackson, Roy Williams

Undervalued: David Garrard, Brandon Jacobs, Greg Camarillo

I hope everyone keeps saying this about S Jax!!

don't mean to throw water on the fire, but really what has Sjax done...? I'm the opposite, I think he's grossly overrated..one good season(2006)...barely scraped 1000 yards in 2005, 2007,2008..other than that 'good' 2006 season, Sjax has never rushed for more than 1047 yards in any season, never scored more than 8 rushing tds in any year, hasn't caught more than 43 balls in any season other than 2006..lifetime 4.3 per carry, which is good but not great..

averages just 76.7 yards per game over his entire career. only once has he carried the ball more than 254 times in a single season(2006).averages 3.3 recs per game..only once in his 5-yr NFL career, has he played a full 16-game schedule(2006)..

I understand the potential is there..but he runs hard,loves contact, runs upright, is prone to taking on big hits, and plays in a rapidly aging offense..Rams ranked 19th in offensive time of possession, 27th in yards per game ( 287.2), ranked 25th in rush yards per game ( 1,649), 21st in rush yards per attempt ( 4.0)...

that team has a long,long way to go before they're even marginally better..

 

[PatsWillWin]

Greg Lewis.

 

[Fodasme69]

Greg Lewis.

Heard there's a 4 page thread on the guy somewhere

 

[TheWick]

Overvalued: Tony Romo, Steven Jackson, Roy Williams

Undervalued: David Garrard, Brandon Jacobs, Greg Camarillo

I hope everyone keeps saying this about S Jax!!

don't mean to throw water on the fire, but really what has Sjax done...? I'm the opposite, I think he's grossly overrated..one good season(2006)...barely scraped 1000 yards in 2005, 2007,2008..other than that 'good' 2006 season, Sjax has never rushed for more than 1047 yards in any season, never scored more than 8 rushing tds in any year, hasn't caught more than 43 balls in any season other than 2006..lifetime 4.3 per carry, which is good but not great..

averages just 76.7 yards per game over his entire career. only once has he carried the ball more than 254 times in a single season(2006).averages 3.3 recs per game..only once in his 5-yr NFL career, has he played a full 16-game schedule(2006)..

I understand the potential is there..but he runs hard,loves contact, runs upright, is prone to taking on big hits, and plays in a rapidly aging offense..Rams ranked 19th in offensive time of possession, 27th in yards per game ( 287.2), ranked 25th in rush yards per game ( 1,649), 21st in rush yards per attempt ( 4.0)...

that team has a long,long way to go before they're even marginally better..

So who do you take in his spot in the top 5? There are no other RBs that have his upside. That offense is not aging rapidly...exaclty the opposite. Look at his numbers last year in only 12 games...of course who knows if he can actually play 16 but if he does he WILL be the #1 back in all PPR leagues. No other RB will get the ball as much as him. There is no RBBC worries in St.Louis like there could be in Jacksonville/Tennessee. I'll take 8 TDs no problem...when he has 1300 yds on the ground along with 85 catches

To say any team in the NFL is a long, long way away from being marginally better is just crazy...few bounces of the ball and less injuries and any team can go from 2 to 3 wins to 9 or 10.

Just my opinion

 

[Maroney=Speed]

Undervalued = Forte

Overvalued = Cutler

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

OVER:

QB - Brees, Cassel

RB - DeAngelo

WR - Marshall

TE - Witten

UNDER:

QB - Schaub

RB - Willie Parker

WR - Braylon Edwards

TE - Tony Gonzo

 

[stewartcjae]

Overvalued: Tony Romo, Steven Jackson, Roy Williams

Undervalued: David Garrard, Brandon Jacobs, Greg Camarillo

I hope everyone keeps saying this about S Jax!!

don't mean to throw water on the fire, but really what has Sjax done...? I'm the opposite, I think he's grossly overrated..one good season(2006)...barely scraped 1000 yards in 2005, 2007,2008..other than that 'good' 2006 season, Sjax has never rushed for more than 1047 yards in any season, never scored more than 8 rushing tds in any year, hasn't caught more than 43 balls in any season other than 2006..lifetime 4.3 per carry, which is good but not great..

averages just 76.7 yards per game over his entire career. only once has he carried the ball more than 254 times in a single season(2006).averages 3.3 recs per game..only once in his 5-yr NFL career, has he played a full 16-game schedule(2006)..

I understand the potential is there..but he runs hard,loves contact, runs upright, is prone to taking on big hits, and plays in a rapidly aging offense..Rams ranked 19th in offensive time of possession, 27th in yards per game ( 287.2), ranked 25th in rush yards per game ( 1,649), 21st in rush yards per attempt ( 4.0)...

that team has a long,long way to go before they're even marginally better..

He has gotten around 1300 total yards in 4 straight years, last two of which he played only 12 and 11 games. During those years he averaged around 108 and 118 rush/rec yards per game. I am more scared about his injuries then his production. Since his first full year as the starter in 05 he has averaged 116 total yards and .72td per game. If he plays 16 games it would be around 1800yds and 11td. Ill agree that his TD production is alittle low to be considered elite, but to say he hasn't really good when he plays is another.Just as a comparison, AP averages are 116 total yds and .78td per game

 

[Birdie048]

Overvalued: Jonathan Stewart ( for 2009 ), Ronnie Brown, Pierre Thomas, Brandon Marshall, Santonio HolmesUndervalued: Portis, Derrick Ward, Kevin Curtis, Burleson, Shaub

I disagree with this on several players...Ronnie Brown is 2 yrs removed from his knee injury and is now fully recovered. There should be more consistency in his game and more touches for him. Ricky is how old? 32 IIRC.... Holmes showed up for the SB and played as a Top WR. Ward was taken out of the picture and Pitt relied on Holmes to lead the way. He did well. I see this is the year Holmes surpassed Ward as WR#1. Add that Nate Washington is gone and Limas Sweed is still raw and that means more looks to Holmes.I agree on the others:J Stewart will see more crowded boxes and Carolina lost a OL (forget who). Def can 2x on Steve Smith since there is no WR2 and there is no room for them to run. I have seen Stewart go for a 1st & 2nd round pick recently.... too costly for a RBBC guy. Portis is always undervalued. He is the heart of the Wash Offense. He was on pace for a career season when he got dinged up last year. Burleson is back from injury, but TJ will draw the primary coverage leaving Nate open often!! Another Undervalued player is Keenan Burton of StL.... if Holt leaves, and Avery is still developing, Burton will get more touches and if he stays healthy, he could be a nice WR3 value.

 

[PewterFan]

Under:

L.Coles - He's never a sexy pick, but he puts up numbers. Carson Palmer may be the best QB he's ever worked with.

Over:

B.Roethlisberger - Two Superbowl wins, people generally like him, bound to make a great play/throw here and there, but if you look at his FF numbers in his career, he's just not a true #1 FF QB.

 

[akaoni]

When I first started reading this thread I was thinking that Roy Williams would also be a good selection for undervalued because he stunk up the joint last year, but from what others are saying here, maybe he is more highly valued than I thought. I was looking at him as a mid-round pickup who would be the #1 WR on a team with solid offensive potential. That said, if he went earlier, with his history of injuries he may well be over valued. Here's how I would assign value to R. Williams:

Rounds 1-2: Stupid

Rounds 3-4: Reach

Rounds 5-6: Just about right

Rounds 7 and lower: good value.

Is he going in the 3rd-4th rounds in non-Dallas homer leagues? If not then I don't think he's all that overvalued...

 

[Warhogs]

I saw only one other person list this guy but I think Larry Johnson can rebound and is undervalued right now. The guy is still a beast and should find new fire with all the changes happening in KC.