Packers' ML is +180. (1 Viewer)

[Eminence]

That seems like decent gamble, no? Aaron Rodgers is the kind of guy who can will his way into winning a game. I think this one is pretty 50 / 50.

As it currently stands, you can bet $100 on the Packers and will make $180 if they win. Seems like a pretty good value, you could pick a worse team to bet on.

Packers are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder.

 

[Raider Nation]

Packers are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder.

Always a strong angle.

 

[Sweetness_34]

How is that Pack D gonna stop Kap from running all over them? They did not really improve much on D since last year (one late first round DL pick) and they lost Woodson

 

[Eminence]

How is that Pack D gonna stop Kap from running all over them? They did not really improve much on D since last year (one late first round DL pick) and they lost Woodson

Offense beats Offense. They've also had an entire off-season to prepare for him.

 

[Tackling Dummies]

How is that Pack D gonna stop Kap from running all over them? They did not really improve much on D since last year (one late first round DL pick) and they lost Woodson

Move either SS or FS into run coverage, stack the box. Single all WR/TE, Matthews spies Kaepernick.

 

[tdmills]

That seems like decent gamble, no? Aaron Rodgers is the kind of guy who can will his way into winning a game. I think this one is pretty 50 / 50.

As it currently stands, you can bet $100 on the Packers and will make $180 if they win. Seems like a pretty good value, you could pick a worse team to bet on.

Packers are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder.

Isn't Rodgers 1-15 vs teams with a .500 record or better when trailing in the 4th quarter?

 

[tdmills]

How is that Pack D gonna stop Kap from running all over them? They did not really improve much on D since last year (one late first round DL pick) and they lost Woodson

Move either SS or FS into run coverage, stack the box. Single all WR/TE, Matthews spies Kaepernick.

Your strategy sounds great in Madden, but if Matthews spies Kaep...they will get no pass rush. Literally none, with the 49ers OL he will sit back there all day and Matthews will be stopping Kaep from running...maybe.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

No way I'd be taking that bet.

 

[goodoldalky]

Sounds too good to be true, probably is. They build casinos on too good to be true. I'd put a small mortgage on the 9ers.

 

[Bronco Billy]

Sounds too good to be true, probably is. They build casinos on too good to be true. I'd put a small mortgage on the 9ers.

This is one where you run to the smell. Vegas understands the psychology of gamblers very very well.

And I think you'll absolutely see GB scheme completely differently on D in this game. I could see a big nickel as their base D, allowing a SS spy on Kaepernick and a second SS or big CB shadowing V Davis, then shading the FS to Boldin's side and forcing Kaepernick to pass and look to his second or third option. Let SF take small chunks in the running game and making Kaepernick be patient on drives. That plays on Kaepernick's weaknesses.

 

[DoubleG]

I must have missed the part where all the Packers have to do is beat the Niners to win the Championship. I thought there were 16 regular season games and several rounds of playoffs...oh and a Super Bowl. Live and learn.

 

[Pipes]

I must have missed the part where all the Packers have to do is beat the Niners to win the Championship. I thought there were 16 regular season games and several rounds of playoffs...oh and a Super Bowl. Live and learn.

Back on the topic of this one game I don't think GB has done enough to close the gap...SF made them look silly twice last season. I think SF wins by a TD.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Aaron Rodgers is the kind of guy who can will his way into winning a game.

Can you please explain how one can 'will his way into a winning a game'?

 

[meyerj31]

Aaron Rodgers is the kind of guy who can will his way into winning a game.

Can you please explain how one can 'will his way into a winning a game'?

It's simple. Just be the best player in the NFL.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Aaron Rodgers is the kind of guy who can will his way into winning a game.

Can you please explain how one can 'will his way into a winning a game'?

It's simple. Just be the best player in the NFL.

Peterson plays for the Packers now??? When did this happen?

 

[Donnybrook]

Aldon Smith to Face Rookie LT

 

[saintfool]

i *like* the NFL. it brings outs only slightly less jerky football fans.

 

[mquinnjr]

Packers are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder.

Always a strong angle.

"The team is playing inspired football"

 

[Raider Nation]

Packers are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder.

Always a strong angle.

"The team is playing inspired football"

And doesn't Denver have this same chip tonight? Hopefully they can ship it to the Packers in time for their game.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I don't pretend to know what the Packers are going to do to stop the 49ers offense. I will say that Capers has had a full offseason to prepare for this game, and they will not be taken off guard by the read option. It will be interesting to see how well the 49ers offense can operate without Crabtree. That is a very significant loss for them.

I think the 49ers should win this one, especially at home again, but the Packers are a very good team. A couple bounces go their way, and they easily could win it. +180 is a nice return, and I'm seeing +195 too...

 

[goldenchild]

Sounds too good to be true, probably is. They build casinos on too good to be true. I'd put a small mortgage on the 9ers.

This is one where you run to the smell. Vegas understands the psychology of gamblers very very well.

And I think you'll absolutely see GB scheme completely differently on D in this game. I could see a big nickel as their base D, allowing a SS spy on Kaepernick and a second SS or big CB shadowing V Davis, then shading the FS to Boldin's side and forcing Kaepernick to pass and look to his second or third option. Let SF take small chunks in the running game and making Kaepernick be patient on drives. That plays on Kaepernick's weaknesses.

I don't know where to start with this one. VD is not coverable one on one (no matter how big the CB is), Kap has very much improved on progressing through his reads since that Bears game, and I don't think "small chunks" in the run game has been associated with the 49ers rushing attack for the last 2 years.

Also, I bet we'll see very little of the read option on Sunday. Greg Roman is excellent at game-planning and is well aware of the preparation GB has put in during the offseason.

Just my $0.02

 

[sho nuff]

How is that Pack D gonna stop Kap from running all over them? They did not really improve much on D since last year (one late first round DL pick) and they lost Woodson

Loosing Woodson at this point in his career is not a huge deal now is it?

Or did you not enjoy him getting toasted by Frank Gore?

Great player...was great for the Packers...but his time was past.

Would feel better having Hayward out there for him rather than the rookie Hyde...but their additions on defense are:

Datone Jones, Jonny Jolly, Nick Perry (back from injury).

Tramon healthier than he has been in a while. Burnett with more experience and the other safety spot having more experience. A whole offseason for Jones to be an inside linebacker rather than just converting from the outside.

But in the end...its not just about the defense.

 

[sho nuff]

I don't pretend to know what the Packers are going to do to stop the 49ers offense. I will say that Capers has had a full offseason to prepare for this game, and they will not be taken off guard by the read option. It will be interesting to see how well the 49ers offense can operate without Crabtree. That is a very significant loss for them.

I think the 49ers should win this one, especially at home again, but the Packers are a very good team. A couple bounces go their way, and they easily could win it. +180 is a nice return, and I'm seeing +195 too...

Pretty much...the game favors the 9ers...the reason you are getting that type of return for the Packers.
But for some to question it almost as if they have no chance because of what happened last January seems a bit out there as well.

 

[meyerj31]

I don't pretend to know what the Packers are going to do to stop the 49ers offense. I will say that Capers has had a full offseason to prepare for this game, and they will not be taken off guard by the read option. It will be interesting to see how well the 49ers offense can operate without Crabtree. That is a very significant loss for them.

I think the 49ers should win this one, especially at home again, but the Packers are a very good team. A couple bounces go their way, and they easily could win it. +180 is a nice return, and I'm seeing +195 too...

Pretty much...the game favors the 9ers...the reason you are getting that type of return for the Packers.
But for some to question it almost as if they have no chance because of what happened last January seems a bit out there as well.

It's going to be a close game but the Packers DEF is way better this year. The first unit effectively shut down Seattle for the first half until the second stringers started coming in the game.

There was some also some statistical measure out there showing the Packers had the worst injury impacts/replacements last year of any team. They lost a lot of speed/athleticism on the defense, and that's what you need to beat the 49ers.

I'm very much looking forward to this game... should be really entertaining. It's definitely the game to watch this week.

 

[kface]

Its funny people suggesting the packers will just go nickel or even dime on every play to stop the read option but the 49ers are built to run. Their line has been opening up holes big enough for people on this board to average 5 ypc. The Packers, if they are going to win, have to stop the run first and foremost and they just aren't built for that.

The second component is green bay's oline is terrible. It was terrible last year and its even worse this year and the 49ers are so tough up front. Rodgers is not going to have time to throw, lacey will average 2 ypc etc....the packers always, for the last 5 years probably, have struggled against the teams that can bring the rush.

I think it will be close but in SF i have trouble imagining a GB win without a couple of lucky bounces going their way. Anyone can beat anyone at any given time but on paper i think SF at home is the far superior team. I put GB winning the game in the same range as the 49ers winning by 21 or more. There's a chance...just not a good chance imho

 

[DoubleG]

I must have missed the part where all the Packers have to do is beat the Niners to win the Championship. I thought there were 16 regular season games and several rounds of playoffs...oh and a Super Bowl. Live and learn.

Back on the topic of this one game I don't think GB has done enough to close the gap...SF made them look silly twice last season. I think SF wins by a TD.

Nevermind - mixed this thread up with another where "who will win it all" was being discussed. Move along.

 

[sho nuff]

Its funny people suggesting the packers will just go nickel or even dime on every play to stop the read option but the 49ers are built to run. Their line has been opening up holes big enough for people on this board to average 5 ypc. The Packers, if they are going to win, have to stop the run first and foremost and they just aren't built for that.

The second component is green bay's oline is terrible. It was terrible last year and its even worse this year and the 49ers are so tough up front. Rodgers is not going to have time to throw, lacey will average 2 ypc etc....the packers always, for the last 5 years probably, have struggled against the teams that can bring the rush.

I think it will be close but in SF i have trouble imagining a GB win without a couple of lucky bounces going their way. Anyone can beat anyone at any given time but on paper i think SF at home is the far superior team. I put GB winning the game in the same range as the 49ers winning by 21 or more. There's a chance...just not a good chance imho

Well...first off, to claim the line is worse this year than last seems a bit out there. The only difference being the LT is now Bakhtiari rather than Newhouse. Sorry, but that is actually an improvement over the line they had last January.

And DuJuan Harris was doing better than 2 ypc last year against the 9ers...so why do you think Lacy will just average that? Oh, because he looked bad with Vince Young and BJ Coleman in at QB?

Just wondering.

 

[kface]

Its funny people suggesting the packers will just go nickel or even dime on every play to stop the read option but the 49ers are built to run. Their line has been opening up holes big enough for people on this board to average 5 ypc. The Packers, if they are going to win, have to stop the run first and foremost and they just aren't built for that.

The second component is green bay's oline is terrible. It was terrible last year and its even worse this year and the 49ers are so tough up front. Rodgers is not going to have time to throw, lacey will average 2 ypc etc....the packers always, for the last 5 years probably, have struggled against the teams that can bring the rush.

I think it will be close but in SF i have trouble imagining a GB win without a couple of lucky bounces going their way. Anyone can beat anyone at any given time but on paper i think SF at home is the far superior team. I put GB winning the game in the same range as the 49ers winning by 21 or more. There's a chance...just not a good chance imho

Well...first off, to claim the line is worse this year than last seems a bit out there. The only difference being the LT is now Bakhtiari rather than Newhouse. Sorry, but that is actually an improvement over the line they had last January.

And DuJuan Harris was doing better than 2 ypc last year against the 9ers...so why do you think Lacy will just average that? Oh, because he looked bad with Vince Young and BJ Coleman in at QB?

Just wondering.

My understanding is they are starting a rookie at tackle and have very little depth behind that. As well Bulaga is out and I realize he was out last year but there is a big difference in the first game with a rookie with a very agressive defense returning almost all their starters vs week 17 when a line has had time to gel imho. Its just a guess but I suspect the line will perform worse than last year.

The 49ers were playing with a much hampered justin smith last year in that playoff game and you will notice they perform so much better with him in the line up. He is fully healthy this year. The 49ers are notoriously strong against the run and have been for a couple of years now and I see no reason for that to change. Throw in a rookie rb against a complex defense and my gut tells me he badly underperforms in his first game (I would be surprised to see lots of the other backs just to keep rodgers upright). I honestly think there is a chance rodgers doesn't come out of this game unscathed....

All just my opinion however based on how I read the stats...

 

[massraider]

This might be the most interesting game to watch this week.

Best of luck to anyone betting it. I don't have a clue.

 

[Keith Lewis]

How is that Pack D gonna stop Kap from running all over them? They did not really improve much on D since last year (one late first round DL pick) and they lost Woodson

Move either SS or FS into run coverage, stack the box. Single all WR/TE, Matthews spies Kaepernick.

Sounds easy. You should replace the Packers Defensive Coordinator!!!

 

[Keith Lewis]

This might be the most interesting game to watch this week.

Best of luck to anyone betting it. I don't have a clue.

Vegas seems to have their chips in for SF by a 2-1 margin. That should fill you in a little.

 

[Fanatics]

That seems like decent gamble, no? Aaron Rodgers is the kind of guy who can will his way into winning a game. I think this one is pretty 50 / 50.

As it currently stands, you can bet $100 on the Packers and will make $180 if they win. Seems like a pretty good value, you could pick a worse team to bet on.

Packers are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder.

Isn't every game 50/50?

How is that Pack D gonna stop Kap from running all over them? They did not really improve much on D since last year (one late first round DL pick) and they lost Woodson

Move either SS or FS into run coverage, stack the box. Single all WR/TE, Matthews spies Kaepernick.

Oh man, the 49ers would take that defensive setup any week. No pass rush with Matthews spying, single coverage on Boldin and Davis, which one does the other Safety cover? One of them will be up against a smaller CB. That is not to mention McDonald...there would be mismatches all over the place.

 

[kface]

That seems like decent gamble, no? Aaron Rodgers is the kind of guy who can will his way into winning a game. I think this one is pretty 50 / 50.

As it currently stands, you can bet $100 on the Packers and will make $180 if they win. Seems like a pretty good value, you could pick a worse team to bet on.

Packers are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder.

Isn't every game 50/50?

How is that Pack D gonna stop Kap from running all over them? They did not really improve much on D since last year (one late first round DL pick) and they lost Woodson

Move either SS or FS into run coverage, stack the box. Single all WR/TE, Matthews spies Kaepernick.

Oh man, the 49ers would take that defensive setup any week. No pass rush with Matthews spying, single coverage on Boldin and Davis, which one does the other Safety cover? One of them will be up against a smaller CB. That is not to mention McDonald...there would be mismatches all over the place.

Not to mention they would just hand the ball off 45 times and probably average 6 ypc...gore fresh, hunter back off injury etc....

 

[KingK]

This is what everyone thought last year.....

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I've seen worse bets, most involving getting negative odds.

 

[sho nuff]

Its funny people suggesting the packers will just go nickel or even dime on every play to stop the read option but the 49ers are built to run. Their line has been opening up holes big enough for people on this board to average 5 ypc. The Packers, if they are going to win, have to stop the run first and foremost and they just aren't built for that.

The second component is green bay's oline is terrible. It was terrible last year and its even worse this year and the 49ers are so tough up front. Rodgers is not going to have time to throw, lacey will average 2 ypc etc....the packers always, for the last 5 years probably, have struggled against the teams that can bring the rush.

I think it will be close but in SF i have trouble imagining a GB win without a couple of lucky bounces going their way. Anyone can beat anyone at any given time but on paper i think SF at home is the far superior team. I put GB winning the game in the same range as the 49ers winning by 21 or more. There's a chance...just not a good chance imho

Well...first off, to claim the line is worse this year than last seems a bit out there. The only difference being the LT is now Bakhtiari rather than Newhouse. Sorry, but that is actually an improvement over the line they had last January.

And DuJuan Harris was doing better than 2 ypc last year against the 9ers...so why do you think Lacy will just average that? Oh, because he looked bad with Vince Young and BJ Coleman in at QB?

Just wondering.

My understanding is they are starting a rookie at tackle and have very little depth behind that. As well Bulaga is out and I realize he was out last year but there is a big difference in the first game with a rookie with a very agressive defense returning almost all their starters vs week 17 when a line has had time to gel imho. Its just a guess but I suspect the line will perform worse than last year.

The 49ers were playing with a much hampered justin smith last year in that playoff game and you will notice they perform so much better with him in the line up. He is fully healthy this year. The 49ers are notoriously strong against the run and have been for a couple of years now and I see no reason for that to change. Throw in a rookie rb against a complex defense and my gut tells me he badly underperforms in his first game (I would be surprised to see lots of the other backs just to keep rodgers upright). I honestly think there is a chance rodgers doesn't come out of this game unscathed....

All just my opinion however based on how I read the stats...

Well...depth has nothing to do with comparing the OL right now to where it was during last year's playoff game.

While its a rookie...he is better than Marshall Newhouse (who is the depth). So the depth at LT and RT...is the guy that started last season.

Removing him for a guy who has been better than him...does not make the line worse.

Sure...Id love to have Bulaga playing LT this year and the rookie at RT. Though, they have had some time to gel given the injury happened in their scrimmage and the rookie has been the LT ever since.

The rest of your post is fair enough...but people have been saying that about Rodgers for a while (surprised if he makes it through....). The thing about him, while he gets sacked quite a bit...its not that often that its a very hard hit.

He has a pretty good feel of things and moves around to where he is not taking the big hit.

Even his concussion a few years ago came on a scramble...and it was from his head hitting the turf when he went down.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

I kinda thought SF -4.5 was too low.

 

[Raider Nation]

Good effort anyway. Was worth a shot.

 

[Eminence]

Good effort anyway. Was worth a shot.

Thanks, I thought the teams talent were so close that the potential +180 payoff for the Packers would be too sweet of a payday to pass up. In my opinion it was a 50 / 50 proposition and if this was a casino being able to double your money on black for about the same odds as red is a bet that I'll take every time.