Parker vs. Bush (1 Viewer)

[Perry Ice]

In a PPR re-draft league I think these two are neck and neck. Here is the staff predictions, and you can see their production is very close:

Bush:

David Dodds 183 824 4.5 4 55 441 3 169 = 224

Chris Smith 160 768 4.8 4 60 565 4 181 = 241

Bob Henry 181 851 4.7 5 62 515 3 185 = 247

Jason Wood 180 900 5.0 5 40 290 2 161 = 201

Maurile Tremblay 211 949 4.5 5 41 7.5 1 162 = 203

Parker:

David Dodds 280 1260 6 26 234 1 191 = 217

Chris Smith 260 1170 5 17 170 1 170 = 187

Bob Henry 280 1246 5 26 268 1 187 = 213

Jason Wood 280 1240 8 25 210 1 199 = 224

Maurile Tremblay 235 1127 8 28 257 1 192 = 220

While 4 out of 5 staff members like Parker better in a standard scoring league.

3 staff members like Bush by a pretty big margin over Parker in PPR, while 2 give the edge to Parker.

So who gets the nod if you are looking at these 2 for your RB2?

 

[Burning Sensation]

Bush, i see his downside as Willie Parker.

 

[radballs]

Some of this depends on the league setup. I know you mentioned 1 ppr, but I mean is it a total points league versus a normal regular 14 weeks season (with two week playoff)? How large are the roster sizes? How many players are started each week? All of these variables change things substantially.

There's no doubt that Bush has the higher ceiling but Parker has the higher floor. Between all of the leagues I've drafted already in so far this year I've taken each one before the other. So my projected values on them have continued to change through the offseason and it really depends on who my previous picks are. If my first two/three are solid (little chance of risk or downside), I might tend to go for the homerun.

 

[JimmyD]

The safe pick - Parker. so if you reached on your RB1 or don't feel sold on your RB1 for some reason, take Parker and watch the solid production roll in.

High Risk/High Reward pick - Bush, who knows if he can step in and produce every week, that is difficult for rookies. However if he can let loose that talent of his and the offense clicks lookout. I'd like to have him on my team but only if I feel that my other picks are solid enough to overcome what should be a up and down year fantasy wise out of him.

 

[EBF]

In a PPR, I think you have to go with Bush.

In a standard league, Parker might be a better play.

Bush's primary value is in PPR leagues.

 

[-OZ-]

PPR league, Bush. I'll take solid WRs and QB, take some risk with Reggie.

 

[PIK95]

FWP for me.

 

[Kiddnets]

Just traded for FWP in a 14 team keeper league and found this thread in a search - just some info

I was able to get FWP for very cheap - cost of a #3 RB slot (he is my #3 behind Lamont and S Jax. Many guys are down on him though ?I don't know why - he reminds me of Tiki a few years ago trying to find his niche. The TDs will come IMO.

Bush hype is through the roof - he is going to go for close to double that I paid for Parker and be someone's #2 RB.

I'd rather have Parker - if you are in a keeper league call the owner before it swings again! I did this when everyone hated Dom Davis 2 yrs ago (remember the Hollings fiasco). I like rolling the dice on potential while you can get it cheap. I'm going to lock him up for 2007 as well!!!

 

[ProdigyofParcells]

Just traded for FWP in a 14 team keeper league and found this thread in a search - just some info

I was able to get FWP for very cheap - cost of a #3 RB slot (he is my #3 behind Lamont and S Jax. Many guys are down on him though ?I don't know why - he reminds me of Tiki a few years ago trying to find his niche. The TDs will come IMO.

Bush hype is through the roof - he is going to go for close to double that I paid for Parker and be someone's #2 RB.

I'd rather have Parker - if you are in a keeper league call the owner before it swings again! I did this when everyone hated Dom Davis 2 yrs ago (remember the Hollings fiasco). I like rolling the dice on potential while you can get it cheap. I'm going to lock him up for 2007 as well!!!

I did a little searching to try to get an idea of how Bush will be used. In 2000 when Payton was the OC of the Giants and Thunder and Lightning, the lightning produced some seriously nice numbers.1700 yds and 9tds with a 4.7 ypc. I can totally see those duplicated by Bush.

 

[crimsonrebel]

well if last year was any indication FWP wont be scoring many TD's. The steelers did draft a TD vulture. I also believe Pittsburg will be more of a RBBC situation with Hayes stealing more carries than he did last year. Bush should score more TD's if TD's are weighted more heavily than yardage in your league.

 

[Tom Servo]

well if last year was any indication FWP wont be scoring many TD's. The steelers did draft a TD vulture. I also believe Pittsburg will be more of a RBBC situation with Hayes stealing more carries than he did last year. Bush should score more TD's if TD's are weighted more heavily than yardage in your league.

FWP may have someone vulturing TDs, but there's no way Haynes is forcing a RBBC in Pittsburgh. Haynes IIRC is a FB; Staley may steal some carries as a CoP back. This is FWP's show between the 10s.

 

[Lombardi's Orphan Son]

Just traded for FWP in a 14 team keeper league and found this thread in a search - just some info

I was able to get FWP for very cheap - cost of a #3 RB slot (he is my #3 behind Lamont and S Jax.  Many guys are down on him though ?I don't know why - he reminds me of Tiki a few years ago trying to find his niche.  The TDs will come IMO. 

Bush hype is through the roof - he is going to go for close to double that I paid for Parker and be someone's #2 RB. 

I'd rather have Parker - if you are in a keeper league call the owner before it swings again!  I did this when everyone hated Dom Davis 2 yrs ago (remember the Hollings fiasco).  I like rolling the dice on potential while you can get it cheap.  I'm going to lock him up for 2007 as well!!!

I did a little searching to try to get an idea of how Bush will be used. In 2000 when Payton was the OC of the Giants and Thunder and Lightning, the lightning produced some seriously nice numbers.1700 yds and 9tds with a 4.7 ypc. I can totally see those duplicated by Bush.

that might be b/c there was no "Thunder"Bush hype is similar imo to the Vick hype when he first appeared. Do you see how the Bucs handle Vick? pretty well. are the Panthers used to seeing a Vick-type??? yep, and their D has only gotten better this year. that's 4 games against those teams, a new Offense, a broken QB, shaken Defense and a recovering city.

i wouldn't be hitching my wagon to that horse. not in a redraft.

-orphan

 

[Captain Quinoa]

well if last year was any indication FWP wont be scoring many TD's.  The steelers did draft a TD vulture.  I also believe Pittsburg will be more of a RBBC situation with Hayes stealing more carries than he did last year.  Bush should score more TD's if TD's are weighted more heavily than yardage in your league.

FWP may have someone vulturing TDs, but there's no way Haynes is forcing a RBBC in Pittsburgh. Haynes IIRC is a FB; Staley may steal some carries as a CoP back. This is FWP's show between the 10s.

How many years of "backup RB so-and-so will eat into starter so-and-so's carries" NOT HAPPENING do we have to witness before people stop saying it?

 

[Bojang0301]

The safer pick is not Parker... although with all of his upside I wouldn't neccesarily say that Bush is a safe pick. The fact of the matter is that FWP is a big play guy not something the Steelers have ever used on a consistent basis at RB. I mean I think people really don't get how revolutionary that is to the Steelers. They have had 2 coaches since, well, the begining of time and during that time period they have used a pound it out, ball control running game with the like of most notably the Bus and Franco Harris. FWP does not fit this mold and will never fit this mold. I think the offense can be consistent and transition into a more passer friendly offense but history certainly tells us otherwise.

I think it is also important for use to note what the Steelers have done this off-season. They have kept Staley and Haynes, added Humes and Holmes. Now, you may ask yourself what does Holmes have to do with this equation? It is very simple and despite the bad headlines recently he is a heady, unselfish player who is comfortable blocking and in his own skin in a running offense. Humes tells me that they still crave a big, pounding back in some form. To me, Staley fits this offense a great deal more than FWP. It is unfortunate though that the cat just can't stay healthy. He impressed me with the way he developed into a big back and adjusted to the Steelers offense.

Now as far as Bush goes, this cat is superior talent wise hands down but I think you do have to be somewhat concerned with his situation. Sean Payton is as smart an offensive mind as any in the NFL and he will certainly take advantages of Bush's strengths... and his strength lies in playing both RB and WR. This is why I think it is a safe bet to have Bush as a RB2. He's the kind of guy you want to put the ball in his hands 15-25 times a game. He may get 12-15 carries but he'll also get 3-5 catches and he will always make the most of them. I think based on talent, situation, and the fact that FWP loses carries in red zone situations you should go with Bush. Bush will also not have the opportunity for short yardage TD's but he will have a great deal more of opportunities to score TD's with him splitting wide and also his big play abilities as a RB.

 

[Shiver44]

Bush, easily for me. He will be better in PPR leagues, for sure. But he should double, if not more so, Parker in touchdowns.

 

[eoMMan]

Any word on how many carries FWP will be getting per game? Will Duce be much of a threat to steal carries?

 

[lebowski]

I heard today on espn that Bush WILL get 20-25 touches per game. I'm not sure if that includes kick returns or not. That seems like a good # of touches to do some damage.

 

[MLBrandow]

I heard today on espn that Bush WILL get 20-25 touches per game. I'm not sure if that includes kick returns or not. That seems like a good # of touches to do some damage.

I could definitely see 20 touches per game by Bush.Problem is, if the breakdown is 7ru/5rec/8st.... does that devalue him?

I'd much rather have the home-run threat that gets PR/KR duties too.

Bush by a lot for me.... he may not get more than 1000 or so combined, but the extra TDs will more than make up for it

FWP may have someone vulturing TDs, but there's no way Haynes is forcing a RBBC in Pittsburgh.  Haynes IIRC is a FB; Staley may steal some carries as a CoP back.  This is FWP's show between the 10s.

How many years of "backup RB so-and-so will eat into starter so-and-so's carries" NOT HAPPENING do we have to witness before people stop saying it?

Are you guys really going to fight to draft an 1100/4 back? Not only will Haynes/Staley be vulchering TDs, but so will Roethlisberger...Sure he'll break 1000 yards, but the TDs are what makes Bush the clear winner here.

 

[Sigfawn]

that might be b/c there was no "Thunder"

Bush hype is similar imo to the Vick hype when he first appeared. Do you see how the Bucs handle Vick? pretty well. are the Panthers used to seeing a Vick-type??? yep, and their D has only gotten better this year. that's 4 games against those teams, a new Offense, a broken QB, shaken Defense and a recovering city.

i wouldn't be hitching my wagon to that horse. not in a redraft.

-orphan

Small hijack, but Vick kills the Panthers. Remember the year the Panthers went to the SB? Vicks first game back from a broken leg, a crappy 2-10 falcons team, he runs for something like 141 and a TD and single-handedly beats the panthers. I wouldn't worry about Bush and the Panthers. The Bucs have the best rush D in the league, so they kill everyone.

 

[Kiddnets]

I think 1,200 yds and 5 TDs is the floor for FWP - thats what makes him more so attractive. A few more HRs plus a few extra looks from inside the 10 with no Bettis (Has there been any formal announcement that Duce will be the GL back?)and you have a top 10 RB drafted as your #2 or #3.

IMO - worst case scenerio for FWP he is a solid #3 RB for you - plus he can be had a lot cheaper than Bush from what I have seen so far!

 

[LTsharks]

I could definitely see 20 touches per game by Bush.

Problem is, if the breakdown is 7ru/5rec/8st.... does that devalue him?

I'd much rather have the home-run threat that gets PR/KR duties too.

Bush by a lot for me.... he may not get more than 1000 or so combined, but the extra TDs will more than make up for it

Sure he'll break 1000 yards, but the TDs are what makes Bush the clear winner here.

Yet in this thread

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=249748

in the mock draft you did based on you drafting for each team, you took them at 6.1 and 6.2.

I fail to see the clear winner based on that mock draft. I would think that if one was clearly better then the other they would have to be at least 2 picks apart in a mock draft. Maybe I'm just confused by what you meant when you said "clear winner".

 

[mbuehner]

Bettis scored 9 tds inside the opponents 5 yard line last season. Parker had 1 carry inside the opponent's 5 all season long. Even a marginal increase in goalline carries is just gravy to FWPs numbers, because essentially his baseline is zero.