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Patriots vs Bills - Wild Card (-5, o/u 44) (1 Viewer)

LolNFL for scheduling night game in January in Buffalo. Cold weather benefits the Pats in that the under is the only way they’re going to win. Diggs will likely be neutralized and this role players will have to make plays for the Bills. Lots of 3 yard runs coming tonight. Fading Allen and really everyone in fantasy. 

 
IHEARTFF said:
LolNFL for scheduling night game in January in Buffalo. Cold weather benefits the Pats in that the under is the only way they’re going to win. Diggs will likely be neutralized and this role players will have to make plays for the Bills. Lots of 3 yard runs coming tonight. Fading Allen and really everyone in fantasy. 
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This seems to be the most compelling matchup. Doesn’t surprise me it’s on a Saturday prime time. Thats all they care about.

 
Pats are vastly improved from last year and they are headed in the right direction but they are running out of gas because they still have obvious holes on both sides of the ball…the Bills are a better team right now and I expect Allen to be by far the best player on the field tonight…while I love Mac he is still an inexperienced rookie and he is not ready to go toe-to-toe with an MVP candidate as good as Allen (especially on the road)…while weather will be an issue it won’t have a dramatic effect on the game since they are both cold weather teams…outside of the obvious x-factor of turnovers and injuries I think the Bills win solidly.

 
Boston said:
Pats are vastly improved from last year and they are headed in the right direction but they are running out of gas because they still have obvious holes on both sides of the ball…the Bills are a better team right now and I expect Allen to be by far the best player on the field tonight…while I love Mac he is still an inexperienced rookie and he is not ready to go toe-to-toe with an MVP candidate as good as Allen (especially on the road)…while weather will be an issue it won’t have a dramatic effect on the game since they are both cold weather teams…outside of the obvious x-factor of turnovers and injuries I think the Bills win solidly.
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I saw Mac in game 1 and the last game of the year, both vs a good Miami defense. In game 1, Miami blitzed alot and he took what the defense gave him, getting hit often right before a short completed pass.  In the recent game, he took more chances downfield and should've had a couple of INTs on longer passes thrown into double or triple coverage. Miami also fake blitzed several times in the last game to try and confuse Mac. If Mac can avoid turnovers, NE has a chance.

 
ESPN’s Bills beat reporter is saying that the Bills expect NE to play a lot more man coverage and that Buffalo’s planned counter is to heavily involve Beasley. I sincerely hope that’s not the case because Beasley has lost a step and is still very good against zone coverage but absolutely can not beat man coverage. Meanwhile McKenzie absolutely destroyed NE when they went to man coverage in their last meeting because his speed and burst creates real problems for especially nickel corners/safeties/LBers.

 
GroveDiesel said:
ESPN’s Bills beat reporter is saying that the Bills expect NE to play a lot more man coverage and that Buffalo’s planned counter is to heavily involve Beasley. I sincerely hope that’s not the case because Beasley has lost a step and is still very good against zone coverage but absolutely can not beat man coverage. Meanwhile McKenzie absolutely destroyed NE when they went to man coverage in their last meeting because his speed and burst creates real problems for especially nickel corners/safeties/LBers.
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So from the Bills' coaching perspective, McKenzie only blew up last time because Beasley was not available?  Or do they see what you see?

 
***Pats vs Bills*** The Ice Bowl Cometh

Yes i am referencing the 1939 Eugene O'Neil play, hopefully this football game will be infinitely more interesting which as a Phinsfan, I want to tell you that Buffalo should BLOW the PATRIOTS out of the back hole of Orchard Park...0-2 vs Buffalo and the last 3 games we have lost 117-37 including a 35-0 SHUTOUT!!! How has Miami done vs the Patriots the last 3 years(Flores plug was inevitable) 4-2 i see including a clean sweep in 2021, all logic would point to the Bills but I am going to run against the grain today and break a rule of mine...I don't like to take teams I'm not sure can win the game even WITH the points HOWEVER i do think somehow the Patriots have a decent chance to win today in the frigid conditions but they MUST keep it close or get on top because playing from behind will not work. 

Pats 14...Bills 13

Low score plays to the Patriots benefit, i'll understand if Josh Allen whoops MoP's ### for a 3rd time this season, good luck Bills Mafia, you fit well  down here in the M-I-A #####es!

 
They give teams about 3-3.5 points for home field advantage, a lot us push that down to say 2-2.5 sometimes but however you slice it the general public thinks this game is going to be rather close and ma y times throughout NFL history some Wildcard Playoff games end up being WILD and things happen you never expected as teams figure out what WIN or GO HOME truly means and only 1 QB on the field today taking snaps under center has that advantage and yet its not showing in the spread. 

-I'm trying to convince myself Buffalo is the right play here, so many Playoff games end in tragedy for visiting teams in Buffalo, NY...why on earth would anyone not take the Bills today?

 
Leaving for the stadium in a bit, gonna try not to get frostbite.  I don't see any way this game isn't close, just given the weather, which will neutralize the Bills offense.  No one really wants to admit it, but Josh Allen isn't particularly great in extreme cold weather conditions - which, in his defense, no one really is, but the Bills are a lot more reliant on the passing game than the Patriots.

The weather looks to have only moderate wind and little-to-no snow (it's sunny without a cloud in the sky right now), so it's a little more conducive to throwing the ball, but it's set to be the coldest Bills game in many years.  Temps hovering around 10 right now, will be down in the single digits at kickoff with a negative wind chill.  I know these are both "cold weather teams", but this is an entirely different animal.

Overall I expect a pretty similar game to the MNF game about a month ago.  Bills need to convert on their opportunities when they arise, stay composed, don't beat themselves.  Patriots won't beat themselves, the Bills can't afford to give away the game.  I suspect it comes down to a field goal / 1-score game either way, at the end.  No idea who wins.

 
I play like a dumb dumb on the in-season game threads about the OT rules and I must get 3 posters who fall for it every time, from the 10:00 time periods(use to be a full 15) to the each team gets a shot if there's a FG, I make it out like I'm Mr Magoo on those posts, it's too much fun. 

-That said,  I am so rooting for both teams to cripple each other into Overtime, I want to see a brutal cold weather smash mouth football game and the harder they punch the more I'm cheering...now I am not rooting for yellow flags and personal fouls and guys tackling guys out of bounds, not cool. But I want to see some shoulder launches and some good hard clean tackles and QBs throwing the ball with ice on their face mask and defensive linemen draped on both sides of them, I want to see Washington storm the Delaware with a rag tag bunch of misfits not wearing shoes, feet wrapped in cloth getting cut to pieces as they run through snow to take the castle by storm...

"MoP, you ok there?"

Yeah I'm fine, just fogged out there for a second.

 
And last point, I am looking forward to a fun atmosphere at the stadium today.  The Bills have not hosted a playoff game in front of a full packed house since December 1996.  The Covid games last year had approx 10k fans...not nothing, but not at all the same as this.

It's difficult to believe it's been more than 25 years.  I was at that game, as a 9 year old.  The Bills lost to the Jags on a late field goal, in what is now remembered as Jim Kelly's last game.  Hopefully tonight's game is a better memory for Bills fans.  I'm not sure it will be, but either way with this weather, it'll be a game to remember one way or another.

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
So from the Bills' coaching perspective, McKenzie only blew up last time because Beasley was not available?  Or do they see what you see?
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No idea. McKenzie is way more dynamic and gives them more versatility now than Beasley does, but the Bills tend to be overly loyal to guys at times. It will be interesting to see how it actually plays out.

I do think that Mac Jones is going to have more put on him than people think. One of the major adjustments the Bills made during their last meeting was putting their “big nickel” Siran Neal out there in place of their usual nickel CB Taron Johnson. Johnson is way better in coverage than Neal but Neal is much bigger and played a big part in helping stop the run game. I think BB will try to exploit Neal in the passing game. If the Pats go really run heavy, I think the Bills may play more 4-3 defense too and get AJ Klein out there in place of their nickel CB. Klein missed their 1st matchup. IMO, NE’s best chance is to go run heavy with some deep play action passes with double moves targeting Dane Jackson. The question is whether Mac Jones has the ability to hit those or not.

On offense, I expect to see Buffalo continuing to swap out their second TE Sweeney for a 6th offensive lineman (Doyle) a decent amount. Doyle is a mountain of a man and has been a huge boon both in run blocking and pass blocking. Hard to believe, but since Week 10, the Bills are actually 6th in the league in rushing and they’ve been at their best the last few weeks when they’ve turned to that 6th OL more often. The X-factor (other than Allen of course), May very well be Dawson Knox. I expect the Pats to try to contain Allen in the pocket while doubling Diggs and trying to prevent deep crossers. If that’s the case, Knox and, if used, McKenzie, should be the guys to benefit. Allen will have to be patient and be satisfied with taking what the defense gives rather than trying to play hero ball.

ETA: After reading an article from The Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia, it seems the Bills in their last matchup actually put both Neal and Klein in at times. Neal in for Dane Jackson at outside corner and Klein in at LB in place of nickel corner Johnson. That’s a much bigger run stuffing defense but Neal on the boundary and Klein in place of Johnson creates a pretty big drop in pass defense. But with Buffalo’s excellent safety duo, I could see them daring Jones to beat them through the air.

 
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Steve Tasker said:
The weather looks to have only moderate wind and little-to-no snow (it's sunny without a cloud in the sky right now), so it's a little more conducive to throwing the ball, but it's set to be the coldest Bills game in many years.  Temps hovering around 10 right now, will be down in the single digits at kickoff with a negative wind chill.  I know these are both "cold weather teams", but this is an entirely different animal.

Overall I expect a pretty similar game to the MNF game about a month ago.  
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Excellent post and exactly what I was wanting to hear about. If the wind is only moderate then I'm not scared of what happened a month ago, but I agree *this* kind of cold is a different animal. As @Boston said above, though, I also expect Josh Allen to be the best player on the field tonight. 

 
Steve Tasker said:
And last point, I am looking forward to a fun atmosphere at the stadium today.  The Bills have not hosted a playoff game in front of a full packed house since December 1996.  The Covid games last year had approx 10k fans...not nothing, but not at all the same as this.

It's difficult to believe it's been more than 25 years.  I was at that game, as a 9 year old.  The Bills lost to the Jags on a late field goal, in what is now remembered as Jim Kelly's last game.  Hopefully tonight's game is a better memory for Bills fans.  I'm not sure it will be, but either way with this weather, it'll be a game to remember one way or another.
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That's rad. I'm rooting for the Bills big time. Good luck!

 
barackdhouse said:
Excellent post and exactly what I was wanting to hear about. If the wind is only moderate then I'm not scared of what happened a month ago, but I agree *this* kind of cold is a different animal. As @Boston said above, though, I also expect Josh Allen to be the best player on the field tonight. 
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Granted, small sample size, but Allen has ranked 40th out of 41 QBs in terms of passer rating in either games under 40 degrees or below freezing (can’t remember which one but either one applies) since he came into the league. He has a completion percentage a smidge over 50% with more INT than TD. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
Granted, small sample size, but Allen has ranked 40th out of 41 QBs in terms of passer rating in either games under 40 degrees or below freezing (can’t remember which one but either one applies) since he came into the league. He has a completion percentage a smidge over 50% with more INT than TD. 
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I am thinking his dual threat ability will be the difference. Not just with the running lanes he may find, and admittedly they may not be there, but with his ability to throw on the run. I just think he'll be able to make plays tonight. Would *not* be surprised if he threw a couple picks as well.

 
Wind is minimal and it’s not snowing, so I thought cold wasn’t too much of a factor when it’s just cold alone ? 
 

Apparently, 55.4% of games played in freezing temperatures ( 32 degrees or below ), and with winds of less than 10mph, go over the projected total. These conditions would qualify 
 

I’d fancy Pats if they were going in there with the Tom/Bill combo, but it’s a rookie QB going into a freezing cold  rabid Bills stadium, against a more experienced Allen. Bills have to take it 

 
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since 2003, BB is 8-0  ATS as a road dog coming off a loss.now you're giving him 5 pts?! Pats cover, and win outright. please, pinch me , isn't this the same Bills team that got punked by the lowly Jags , scoring only 6 pts? so in 6 degree weather that passing game is neutralized. BB will have come up with a great game plan. 

Bills are up against it. good luck

 
This season has been as basic as it comes for the Pats. When they won the turnover battle, they won. When they didn’t, they lost. They were 8-0 this season when they had zero or one turnover. They were 7-1 when they forced 2+ turnovers. They were 8-0 when they were +1 or more in turnovers. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
Granted, small sample size, but Allen has ranked 40th out of 41 QBs in terms of passer rating in either games under 40 degrees or below freezing (can’t remember which one but either one applies) since he came into the league. He has a completion percentage a smidge over 50% with more INT than TD. 
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I believe they went with freezing or colder. I’m not entirely sure I captured all the games as trying to get all the game time temps was a bit tedious, but when I grabbed Allen’s stats for games where the starting game time temp was 35 degrees or colder instead of 32 degrees or colder, it more than doubled the sample size. It also increased Allen’s completion percentage by over 7%, his passing yards per game by -45 yards, increased passing TDs by 0.7/game, and reduced INTs by .85 (almost in half).

In those games he averaged 48 yards rushing and .6 rushing TDs (in games 32 and under it actually increases to 58 rushing and 1 rushing TD).

 
GroveDiesel said:
I believe they went with freezing or colder. I’m not entirely sure I captured all the games as trying to get all the game time temps was a bit tedious, but when I grabbed Allen’s stats for games where the starting game time temp was 35 degrees or colder instead of 32 degrees or colder, it more than doubled the sample size. It also increased Allen’s completion percentage by over 7%, his passing yards per game by -45 yards, increased passing TDs by 0.7/game, and reduced INTs by .85 (almost in half).

In those games he averaged 48 yards rushing and .6 rushing TDs (in games 32 and under it actually increases to 58 rushing and 1 rushing TD).
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IIRC, he had a completion rate of 53% and a passer rating around 78 in cold or precipitation games. I heard broadcasters saying he has a circulation issue and does not adapt well to the cold. He hasn’t played great when it’s cold, but it’s not just Allen on the field. 

 
Feeling dirty about it but cheering for the Patriots :clap:

both because of Mac and frankly, I’d rather the titans play the pats than the bengals. 

 
Obada and Ankou both being inactive is a bit of a surprise since they were both pretty big pieces in defending the run in their first two matchups. I’m not sure how much Vernon Butler offers Buffalo at all and I think it’s a mistake to have him active over those guys.

 
Mildly surprised Brieda is inactive. His speed would put some pressure on NE in my opinion. 

Sanders being back might be a negative for Buffalo. Their best 3-WR set is Diggs/Davis/McKenzie in my opinion. That said, they should be more run heavy than normal given the weather.

 
Bills, 20-10

New England O has been struggling for a while now. Can’t compete with legit championship contender Bills 

 
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