Patterson vs. Harvin (redraft) (1 Viewer)

[PhantomJB]

Good individual threads on each but I'd like to focus on comparative value since they are both available in the mid/late 4th round in redraft.

Skill sets

* Both are wicked multidimensional threats in historically conservative (mediocre?), run-based offenses.

* Harvin has proven Top 10 performance but since derailed by injuries.

* Patterson is the shiny new toy who exploded his last few games of 2013.

Opportunity

* Not entirely known exact role each will play in their respective offenses. Norv on record about Patterson's increased involvement yet it can be argued Patterson's relatively undeveloped route-running skills may hold him back.

* For Harvin, the issue seems to be an historically run-based offense lacking enough touches to make him as relevant as in the past. Although many would wonder why pay a guy so much if not going to make him the centerpiece of a new offense. That and the perceived injury-risk.

ADP/Value

* Patterson (WR16) is rocketing up draft boards and just surpassed Harvin (WR18) this week on FFC.

* In 2013, WR16 would have had to produce about 10.5 PPG in non-PPR. This equates to roughly 1200 total yards and 7-8 TD's for a full season.

You can only draft one. Who would you choose and why? Are they both overvalued for WR16 expected production? Undervalued?

Projections always welcome.

 

[jmo87usc]

I would want Harvin over Patterson in dynasty because I'm just not a big believer in Patterson ever being consistent as a WR. However, I would take Patterson this year in a redraft because I think Norv will find a way to force the ball into his hands repeatedly.

 

[steveski]

I cannot believe that I'm about to say this, but Harvin is the safer play here (higher floor) and I think Patterson has more upside (higher ceiling). This is redraft and obviously assuming both being at least somewhat healthy all year (13 games at least).

In dynasty, I prefer Patterson by a good bit.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I prefer Patterson over Harvin in either redraft and especially in dynasty. Vikings offense is set to explode under Norv and Teddy B, and the sky is the limit right now. Harvin's been away from the game so long and taken so much time off, it's hard to remember when he was fantasy relevant. Seattle's offense is going to be measured responses to game situations and relies on their swarming defense and killing clock.

 

[PhantomJB]

I prefer Patterson over Harvin in either redraft and especially in dynasty. Vikings offense is set to explode under Norv and Teddy B, and the sky is the limit right now. Harvin's been away from the game so long and taken so much time off, it's hard to remember when he was fantasy relevant. Seattle's offense is going to be measured responses to game situations and relies on their swarming defense and killing clock.

Wouldn't Harvin's performance in the SB be solid evidence he has not lost anything? Small sample size for sure, but then Patterson has less than half a season to gauge fantasy relevance and 1200 total yds / 7-8 TD's (WR16) is a pretty high bar for 16 games.

 

[jurb26]

I'll take Patterson in any format over Harvin, though I do like Harvin as a buy low right now. Patterson has more WR1 potential and ability, yet is every bit as multi dimensional and explosive. He's also in a better offense to produce fantasy results IMO.

 

[cstu]

I prefer Patterson over Harvin in either redraft and especially in dynasty. Vikings offense is set to explode under Norv and Teddy B, and the sky is the limit right now. Harvin's been away from the game so long and taken so much time off, it's hard to remember when he was fantasy relevant. Seattle's offense is going to be measured responses to game situations and relies on their swarming defense and killing clock.

Wouldn't Harvin's performance in the SB be solid evidence he has not lost anything? Small sample size for sure, but then Patterson has less than half a season to gauge fantasy relevance and 1200 total yds / 7-8 TD's (WR16) is a pretty high bar for 16 games.

That's what sold me in trading Brandon Marshall for him. Here's his 2013 highlights - hasn't lost a thing.

Like Patterson more in dynasty, but the Seahawks have to find a way to get the ball into this guy's hands 7+ times a game.

 

[JPeso]

Sundays will be more fun with Patterson on my roster. And that breaks what I believe to be a damn near tie, though I think CP has a better chance to approach 10 TD, with catch totals, receiving yardage, and rush yardage to be relatively similar.

 

[Chaka]

Harvin is a special talent but the offense he plays on and his lengthy injury history are red flags for me.

Patterson is significantly less proven but looked electric at times last season and I really like Norv's track record with #1 WRs.

It's kind of a coin toss for me.

BTW Speaking of Norv the one people shouldn't be sleeping on is Kyle Rudolph. Norv's TEs seem to always perform at a very high level.

 

[PhantomJB]

Harvin is a special talent but the offense he plays on and his lengthy injury history are red flags for me.

Patterson is significantly less proven but looked electric at times last season and I really like Norv's track record with #1 WRs.

It's kind of a coin toss for me.

BTW Speaking of Norv the one people shouldn't be sleeping on is Kyle Rudolph. Norv's TEs seem to always perform at a very high level.

This is actually a mild concern of mine in the upcoming redraft season.

Norv's #1 receivers (most recently VJax, J.Gordon) traditionally have been more vertical threats from the X position. From what I've read, Patterson will be moved around in various alignments to seek mismatches, etc. Jennings supposedly will line up in the historically productive X.

Don't want to overanalyze but there will be plenty of work to be done installing an entirely new offense and I have to believe Norv will start with the template that has been successful in the past. Not sure Norv has ever had a unique weapon like Patterson and it might take him awhile (maybe even >1 season?) to find the most innovative ways to utilize him.

OTOH, in Seattle Bevell knows exactly what he has in Harvin so they can both hit the ground running this year.

 

[ZWK]

Harvin (or Andre or Fitz). If I'm drafting a WR in the 4th round, I want him to be someone who has already broken out, not someone who seems primed for a breakout.

 

[Chaka]

Harvin is a special talent but the offense he plays on and his lengthy injury history are red flags for me.

Patterson is significantly less proven but looked electric at times last season and I really like Norv's track record with #1 WRs.

It's kind of a coin toss for me.

BTW Speaking of Norv the one people shouldn't be sleeping on is Kyle Rudolph. Norv's TEs seem to always perform at a very high level.

This is actually a mild concern of mine in the upcoming redraft season.

Norv's #1 receivers (most recently VJax, J.Gordon) traditionally have been more vertical threats from the X position. From what I've read, Patterson will be moved around in various alignments to seek mismatches, etc. Jennings supposedly will line up in the historically productive X.

Don't want to overanalyze but there will be plenty of work to be done installing an entirely new offense and I have to believe Norv will start with the template that has been successful in the past. Not sure Norv has ever had a unique weapon like Patterson and it might take him awhile (maybe even >1 season?) to find the most innovative ways to utilize him.

OTOH, in Seattle Bevell knows exactly what he has in Harvin so they can both hit the ground running this year.

I did not know that Jennings was the X and I do think that is potentially significant. Still a tossup but might lean towards Harvin on draft day.

 

[MDPapi]

I own both for this year in a keeper league that counts return yards and TDs, so they are worth the risks. It's very close, but if I had to keep just one, I'd keep Patterson. Harvin's injury history plus the fact that Minny probably needs Patterson more than Seattle (great D, etc.) needs Harvin, makes me think there may be more potential there. But this is a tough one. As another poster said, looking forward to more fun on Sundays with these guys on my team.

 

[Biabreakable]

Harvin is a special talent but the offense he plays on and his lengthy injury history are red flags for me.

Patterson is significantly less proven but looked electric at times last season and I really like Norv's track record with #1 WRs.

It's kind of a coin toss for me.

BTW Speaking of Norv the one people shouldn't be sleeping on is Kyle Rudolph. Norv's TEs seem to always perform at a very high level.

This is actually a mild concern of mine in the upcoming redraft season.

Norv's #1 receivers (most recently VJax, J.Gordon) traditionally have been more vertical threats from the X position. From what I've read, Patterson will be moved around in various alignments to seek mismatches, etc. Jennings supposedly will line up in the historically productive X.

Don't want to overanalyze but there will be plenty of work to be done installing an entirely new offense and I have to believe Norv will start with the template that has been successful in the past. Not sure Norv has ever had a unique weapon like Patterson and it might take him awhile (maybe even >1 season?) to find the most innovative ways to utilize him.

OTOH, in Seattle Bevell knows exactly what he has in Harvin so they can both hit the ground running this year.

I did not know that Jennings was the X and I do think that is potentially significant. Still a tossup but might lean towards Harvin on draft day.

I have not seen anything that indicates if Patterson or Jennings will play the X WR with Norv Turner. If anyone has? I would love to see that.

What we do know is that under Musgrave Patterson did play the X WR position and Greg Jennings played the Z.

What I have read is that Patterson has been playing all 3 WR positions. Norv Turner also likes to use a lot of pre snap motion which can change the WR role designation.

The issue is an important one because whoever does play the X must be on the line of scrimmage. So this player is more likely to get a bump off the line.

I think this is another example of poor coaching because they could have gotten Patterson more involved in the offense by having him play the side end or the slot last season.

Jennings has a preference for working out of the slot as well. So I think his and Patterson's use as slot receivers at times limits Jarius Wrights opportunity to play and that it is more likely Jerome Simpson is the 3rd WR when the Vikings do use 3WR sets. SImpson is also the best blocking WR on the team, Simpson played the X ahead of Patterson last season.

 

[Gopher State]

Patterson by a mile, Harvin will be hurt by week three

 

[Bob Magaw]

Cross-posted from the Patterson thread.

Patterson's 3 rushing TDs were the most for a WR since the merger. Patterson had one less rushing TD than Harvin has in five years (or three in a half, since he didn't play the last one and a half), in his last five GAMES.

He may have been the only player in the league last year to score three ways (via receiving, rushing and kick return), and I think was the only player for several years in college to score four ways (also punt return).

 

[jonboltz]

Harvin has been there, done that. It wasn't that long ago that he was a top 3 PPR WR.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Give me Patterson in dynasty

Harvin by a little in redraft

 

[Steed]

Harvin is a special talent but the offense he plays on and his lengthy injury history are red flags for me[./quote]

Don't mistake a conservative offense for no offense. Hines Ward carved out a HOF career on a mostly defensive dominant team. Even if they want to run with marshawn and Christine, they'll still need to pass to their best player.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

Cross-posted from the Patterson thread.

Patterson's 3 rushing TDs were the most for a WR since the merger. Patterson had one less rushing TD than Harvin has in five years (or three in a half, since he didn't play the last one and a half), in his last five GAMES.

He may have been the only player in the league last year to score three ways (via receiving, rushing and kick return), and I think was the only player for several years in college to score four ways (also punt return).

You can't expect that to continue for Patterson moving forward. Game planning by defenses will change a lot of things. It's going to be interesting.

I choose Harvin in both.

 

[Chaka]

Harvin is a special talent but the offense he plays on and his lengthy injury history are red flags for me[./quote]

Don't mistake a conservative offense for no offense. Hines Ward carved out a HOF career on a mostly defensive dominant team. Even if they want to run with marshawn and Christine, they'll still need to pass to their best player.

Of course but during Ward's two most fantasy relevant seasons (2002, 2003) the Steelers threw the ball 551 & 532 times.

I am not saying it can't happen, in '05 Ward caught 11 TDs (if only 975 yards) on 379 pass attempts (115 targets). But I am not sure Seattle will force feed the ball to Harvin at that rate.

Ward also had nice seasons in '08 & '09 and the Steelers threw the ball 506 & 536 times.

Wilson threw the ball 393 & 407 times the past two seasons so there will probably need to be a significant bump in attempts for Harvin to hit the targets necessary to have a Ward like season. In 2011 Harvin came very close with 120 targets for 967 yards & 6 TDs.

His rushing and return ability are nice bonuses but Patterson brings a lot of the same skills to the table.

Yeah this is a tough call for me. In a redraft I probably take Harvin as he is a far more proven commodity and we don't know what to expect out of Minnesota this season. In a dynasty...?

 

[brianj74]

Harvin has not played anything resembling a healthy full season in over two years.

If healthy, Harvin is the more proven commodity but good luck thinking you'll get a full season out of him.

 

[Ilov80s]

I don't think Seattle is that conservative. When they throw, it's usually for big plays (despite s lack of big play WRs).

 

[Sabertooth]

Patterson is not even the best receiver on his own team. He has an inferior Qb and a coach who likes rbs and tes.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Cross-posted from the Patterson thread.

Patterson's 3 rushing TDs were the most for a WR since the merger. Patterson had one less rushing TD than Harvin has in five years (or three in a half, since he didn't play the last one and a half), in his last five GAMES.

He may have been the only player in the league last year to score three ways (via receiving, rushing and kick return), and I think was the only player for several years in college to score four ways (also punt return).

You can't expect that to continue for Patterson moving forward. Game planning by defenses will change a lot of things. It's going to be interesting.

I choose Harvin in both.

I don't expect him to average 3 rushing TDs every five games like he finished the season for the rest of his career. I just thought it was suggestive that Harvin is arguably the best rushing WR in league history, and Patterson put up just one less rushing TD than Harvin has accumulated in 5 years, in 5 games.

I like them both a lot in both formats. I'd lean to Patterson in dynasty because of the three year age difference, Harvin's injury history and his potential upside. By that I mean, he may have scored the most points among WRs in non-PPR leagues during the last month of the season (albeit with the three rushing TDs) and he is just scratching the surface of his receiving potential. I'm not sure Harvin is going to improve as a WR that much, or has as much head room, at 26 this season.

In redraft, it is almost a dead heat. Harvin has done it before, but not in SEA, though Bevell was the OC at least part of the time in MIN, so his projected usage is a bit of a mystery (the top 5 WR money they paid him suggests to me he could be pretty involved). The same could be said about Patterson's projected usage, with a new coaching staff and OC in MIN (Turner has had some productive WRs on his watch, but I'm not sure if Patterson or Jennings will play the role typically associated with his most successful WRs). Despite the great finish, and the talk about featuring Patterson this year, I have more confidence in Harvin's receiving ability this year, which is usually an easier way to score points, so give a slight edge to Harvin in redraft.

 

[Donnybrook]

Harvin in redraft. He is simply more talented than Patterson.

 

[PhantomJB]

The ADP trends on FFC are definitely interesting.

In less than two weeks Patterson has climbed from 5.01 to 4.06 while Harvin has dropped from 4.06 to 4.10 (non-PPR).

 

[Ilov80s]

Patterson is not even the best receiver on his own team. He has an inferior Qb and a coach who likes rbs and tes.

Agreed. Jennings is ridiculously underrated this year. He should be going higher than Patterson and definitely not 5-7 rounds later.

 

[ghostguy123]

If healthy, Harvin.

In reality with it being unknown, I am going Patterson this year.

 

[FUBAR]

I prefer Patterson over Harvin in either redraft and especially in dynasty. Vikings offense is set to explode under Norv and Teddy B, and the sky is the limit right now. Harvin's been away from the game so long and taken so much time off, it's hard to remember when he was fantasy relevant. Seattle's offense is going to be measured responses to game situations and relies on their swarming defense and killing clock.

Norv deserves credit but Wilson >>>>>>>> Bridgewater.

Rudolph and Jennings are better than any other receiver in Seattle.

Otherwise the offenses seem to be built remarkably similar. Of course, Seattle likely won't be forced to pass much while Minnesota very well may be behind in most games.

I took Harvin 4.05 in a 16 team survivor this morning, over Patterson. I want relative safety among my top 5 picks, while Harvin is a risk, the risk is health. .