Perfect Draft: 12 Team PPR - Footballguys article advice v. draft dominator Rate My Team (1 Viewer)

[jonny sun quest]

Hello, as this is my first post, hope it's in its correct place.  Last week I wrote the Footballguys founders privately but have not heard back, so I a am excerpting my letter here before a larger audience because I truly want to understand how to manage contradictory information from the same author.

There seems to be measurable disparity between your recent article, the draft dominator tool and the rate my team function.  The paradoxical and ironical gap between what you recommend in your recent article and the name identified as you in the “rate my team” function.

In short, based on the recent article I applied both the quantitative rankings and the David Dodds’ narrative to approaches (e.g., waiting on QB, strategy to the top 60 rankings, etc.) to a 12 team ppr mock draft (with identical scoring settings) in the draft dominator app. The resultant team was among the worst rated (I have generated) teams  according to “David Dodd's” in Rate My Team.

In terms of specifics: with tremendous reverence for your methods and rankings I generated the following team based on the article, from the 9th position in 12 team PPR (a dubious place I have in two upcoming drafts, ugh):

1.09 (#9) M. Gordon  (Dodds Top #60 rank - 8 )

2.04 (#16) M. Thomas (Top #60 rank - 13)

3.09  (#33) J. Mixon (Top #60 rank – 28)

4.04 (#40) B. Cooks (Top #60 rank -36)

5.09 (#57) M. Crabtree (Top #60 rank – 49)

6.04 (#64) M. Goodwin (Top #60 rank – 57)

7.09 (#81) C. Thompson (Top #60 rank – 56)

8.04 (#88) C. Hyde “Here are the other running backs that I would target for value…) in the mid-6th round or later”

9.09 (#105) K. Stills “Here are some guys that should represent excellent value this year (outside of the Top 60)… in the 9th round or later)

10.04 (#112) A. Smith “ YOU if you are wise will grab someone like Alex Smith”

11.09 (#129) D. Booker “Here are the other running backs that I would target for value…in the 9th round or later”

12.04 (#136) Jaguars

13.09 (#153) J. Tucker “in a lot of leagues now, people wait until their last pick to take their kickers and end up missing the good kickers by a few picks. Most likely that sleeper wide receiver you want in the second to last round will still be there for you in the last round.”

14.04 (#160) B. Watson  “once the top seven or eight names come off the board, there is minimal pressure on the tight end position the rest of the draft… in the 16th round or later”

Based on the article and my best analysis and application, intuitively one might think such a team would rate well by  David in the Rate My Team portion of draft dominator. No.

Here are some highlights from that report. There are what I see as some stunning contradictions  and/or deviations from the article:

Overview:

In a competitive league, almost every team has a weakness. It's almost impossible to build a team that is strong at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and wide receiver). As you probably suspect, we perceive your weakness to be at the quarterback position. Of all the deficiencies to have though, this is usually the easiest one to mask.

Footballguys owner David Dodds even recommends you go into your draft with the goal of landing the top RBs and WRs while waiting to grab QBs late.

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs.

With good inseason management, we think you have about a 55 percent chance of making the playoffs.

With average inseason management, we think you have a 39 percent chance of making the playoffs.

QB Summary:

·         We have Alex Smith rated #15 among quarterbacks, so we're not even sold on him as a fantasy starter in your league.

“Players we particularly like on this team include Alex Smith…”

RB Summary:

Your starting Running Backs should be adequate but not great. They don't stand out as difference-makers, but both should be OK. Our projections have Melvin Gordon ranked at #6 and Joe Mixon ranked at #15.

“Players we particularly like on this team include…Melvin Gordon”

TE Summary:

With only Ben Watson, who we don't think is starter-quality in this league, this position is likely to be a trouble spot for you all season.

“Players we particularly like on this team include…Ben Watson”

Back to the…

I hope you can recognize the statements which contradict one another. I’d challenge you to apply the tenets of the article against the draft dominator and see for yourself what results, especially drafting from the 9th position in a 12 team PPR.

.

~Jonny

 

[nittanylion]

 

[matuski]

Always been like that.  It probably has an algorithm to praise A Smith in one instance (value?), and criticize if he is your starter... both can be true.

Gather all the information you can and realize we all have to use our own crystal ball.

 

[Interseptopus]

 

[Interseptopus]

Better to tag @David Dodds if you want a specific response. But as Matuski said, likely just one of those things where you make your own choices with the information you have. 

 

[northern exposure]

I wonder what Joe Brandt has to say about this David Dobbs situation?

 

[coyote5]

Sleep with Dobbs' wife, profit.

 

[jonny sun quest]

Always been like that.  It probably has an algorithm to praise A Smith in one instance (value?), and criticize if he is your starter... both can be true.

Gather all the information you can and realize we all have to use our own crystal ball.

Better to tag @David Dodds if you want a specific response. But as Matuski said, likely just one of those things where you make your own choices with the information you have. 

Firstly, thanks for taking the time to reply seriously. This ain't a fishing/trolling expedition and it ain't about making my own decisions (I have won and lost my fair share of fanstay trophies over many years)

I, like many of you, spent hard earned money on products, and so it's more of a product reliability question than a football strategy one. 

If the Rate My Team function is historically flawed or whatever "always been like that means, then I gather complacency has trumped the need to improve the application.

Finally, this ain't an end of the world issue--just a comment. I have written to Dobbs. I have placed my inquiry here. If folks don't care, I get it. Just tryin' to get info

~Jonny

 

[matuski]

Firstly, thanks for taking the time to reply seriously. This ain't a fishing/trolling expedition and it ain't about making my own decisions (I have won and lost my fair share of fanstay trophies over many years)

I, like many of you, spent hard earned money on products, and so it's more of a product reliability question than a football strategy one. 

If the Rate My Team function is historically flawed or whatever "always been like that means, then I gather complacency has trumped the need to improve the application.

Finally, this ain't an end of the world issue--just a comment. I have written to Dobbs. I have placed my inquiry here. If folks don't care, I get it. Just tryin' to get info

~Jonny

You see how the algorithms can be consistent while both supporting and criticizing the player right? 

It likes where you drafted the player, it doesn't like that the player is your starter.

 

[Interseptopus]

Firstly, thanks for taking the time to reply seriously. This ain't a fishing/trolling expedition and it ain't about making my own decisions (I have won and lost my fair share of fanstay trophies over many years)

I, like many of you, spent hard earned money on products, and so it's more of a product reliability question than a football strategy one. 

If the Rate My Team function is historically flawed or whatever "always been like that means, then I gather complacency has trumped the need to improve the application.

Finally, this ain't an end of the world issue--just a comment. I have written to Dobbs. I have placed my inquiry here. If folks don't care, I get it. Just tryin' to get info

~Jonny

I've had my issues with several features of paid content. 

I use analogies/metaphors daily for my job, but I can't take credit for this one as someone else mentioned it, but FBG paid subscription material is like a buffet. Some stuff you want to drive right in and get as much as you can, and others you pass on. Certainly I don't expect mixing "some of the yella" with some of the blue (major points to anyone who understands where that quote comes from). What I mean by that is that I don't mix a lot of the FBG stuff because it doesn't gel most of the time.

I personally use the Rate my Team function once after my draft and then I move on from it. Mostly for laughs just to see what it'll say. I don't put much stock in it becasue I think it just looks at rankings. Does it look at bye week projections? Or any projections? I'm not sure, so I don't take too much away from it. I can post it in the AC forum and ask advice and I'd get 10 different answers from 10 different posters. Dodds is just another guy with just another set of rankings. I can agree or disagree with them (I typically don't disagree with his rankings)

In the end I think it's more on you- are you comfortable with that QB and TE for the RBs/WRs you got? According to Dodds you got some good value where you got guys, but do you like them, or did you take them because Dodds told you to? If the later then I can see why you'd be upset with your Rate My Team results. 
 

 

[Dismattle]

Lots of info to discuss!  "Your starting Running Backs should be adequate but not great."

First off, it should probably be noted that to have great running backs it probably requires an earlier pick...  Ask yourself how would most any combo of RB's compare to say Gurley n' Cook?  I believe the potential run on WR's made the systematic choice to accept a downgrade at RB, later on, to enable a more balanced team  (could be League scoring?)

Now by chance, you may be misreading some notes  Because as stated for TE's "once the top seven..."  I mean there is a common belief of a Top 3 for TE's and possibly up to a total of six that are worth some advantage at the position  It appears to me that Watson is someone who may outperform their ADP which doesn't exactly make him a Top pick in no shape or form

I could probably try an explain some more  But do you disagree w anything?  How would you like the difference in wording to appear between a team who rostered Gronk and Watson much less Gurley and pretty much any back available in the 2nd round

 

[Slapdash]

Do you think David Dobbs will make the team over Mason Rodolfio ?  

 

[jonny sun quest]

You see how the algorithms can be consistent while both supporting and criticizing the player right? 

It likes where you drafted the player, it doesn't like that the player is your starter.

Yes, and that is an important distinction. But when two separate narratives are given by the same author, it's not a mismatch of contextual algorithms, to me, it seems like an inconsistency in getting updated information on the same page. 

In this case, a significant portion of qualitative information  in the article  "Perfect Draft: 12 Team PPR - Footballguys"  does not match the Rate My Team qualitative analysis by the same author.

Moreover, following the advice (article) and using the measure suggested by this site to rate its own efficacy (Rate My Team) fails to yield a team that rates well. If I was telling people this is my perfect draft plan and use this tool to measure it, I'd feel quite silly if my plan wouldn't deliver well on my own rating system.

 

[Dismattle]

Yes, and that is an important distinction. But when two separate narratives are given by the same author, it's not a mismatch of contextual algorithms, to me, it seems like an inconsistency in getting updated information on the same page. 

In this case, a significant portion of qualitative information  in the article  "Perfect Draft: 12 Team PPR - Footballguys"  does not match the Rate My Team qualitative analysis by the same author.

Moreover, following the advice (article) and using the measure suggested by this site to rate its own efficacy (Rate My Team) fails to yield a team that rates well. If I was telling people this is my perfect draft plan and use this tool to measure it, I'd feel quite silly if my plan wouldn't deliver well on my own rating system.

No distinction for if by chance ten others used the same cliff notes?

 

[jonny sun quest]

Lots of info to discuss!  "Your starting Running Backs should be adequate but not great."

First off, it should probably be noted that to have great running backs it probably requires an earlier pick...  Ask yourself how would most any combo of RB's compare to say Gurley n' Cook?  I believe the potential run on WR's made the systematic choice to accept a downgrade at RB, later on, to enable a more balanced team  (could be League scoring?)

Now by chance, you may be misreading some notes  Because as stated for TE's "once the top seven..."  I mean there is a common belief of a Top 3 for TE's and possibly up to a total of six that are worth some advantage at the position  It appears to me that Watson is someone who may outperform their ADP which doesn't exactly make him a Top pick in no shape or form

I could probably try an explain some more  But do you disagree w anything?  How would you like the difference in wording to appear between a team who rostered Gronk and Watson much less Gurley and pretty much any back available in the 2nd round

Actually, your analysis is much more comprehensive and makes great sense. Seriously, if this sort of anlaysis was provided in the "rate my team" function, I'd be all kudos and unicorns.

Please note, what I detailed was but one example. I literally ran 30 mock drafts, using as many variations I could in applying the articles' concepts to my Draft Dominator selections. It was impossible, by my attempts, to make a team that the David Dodds voice likes when I drafted from the #9 position.  Of course, one could argue drafting from the 9th position in 12 team PPR poses significant challenges from which a simplistic draft analysis program cannot provide a nuanced analysis.

 

[Interseptopus]

Actually, your analysis is much more comprehensive and makes great sense. Seriously, if this sort of anlaysis was provided in the "rate my team" function, I'd be all kudos and unicorns.

Please note, what I detailed was but one example. I literally ran 30 mock drafts, using as many variations I could in applying the articles' concepts to my Draft Dominator selections. It was impossible, by my attempts, to make a team that the David Dobbs voice likes when I drafted from the #9 position.  Of course, one could argue drafting from the 9th position in 12 team PPR poses significant challenges from which a simplistic draft analysis program cannot provide a nuanced analysis.

If you're looking for the perfect team or the perfect draft you're going to have frustration. I could make sense of what Dismattle was saying, and I can't believe it, but I agree with what he said about RBs. If you want Great RBs then you need to be drafting in the top 2-4 and then grabbing a guy like Cook in round 2. But then your WRs are going to be lower. 

You can't have a great everything. You can certainly find bargains at your draft positions.

Maybe this poses an opportunity for Dodds to expand his Rate My Team function to Rate my Draft, where people can put ADP in and maybe it can determine how good you drafted, not necessarily how great your team is at each position, because I feel like it's impossible to be great at every position. 

As a side note, you might want to edit the title of your thread to stop getting "Dobbs" jokes from people

 

[jonny sun quest]

No distinction for if by chance ten others used the same cliff notes?

Since what I am discussing are mock drafts generated within Draft Dominator, I'd assume all the computer picks are driven and derided by not only the same cliff notes, but by the underlying fundamental data analysis architecture itself, which actually reveals more about the Draft Dominator than the real person cliff note reader.

 

[jonny sun quest]

If you're looking for the perfect team or the perfect draft you're going to have frustration. I could make sense of what Dismattle was saying, and I can't believe it, but I agree with what he said about RBs. If you want Great RBs then you need to be drafting in the top 2-4 and then grabbing a guy like Cook in round 2. But then your WRs are going to be lower. 

You can't have a great everything. You can certainly find bargains at your draft positions.

Maybe this poses an opportunity for Dodds to expand his Rate My Team function to Rate my Draft, where people can put ADP in and maybe it can determine how good you drafted, not necessarily how great your team is at each position, because I feel like it's impossible to be great at every position. 

As a side note, you might want to edit the title of your thread to stop getting "Dobbs" jokes from people

Fair enough. Your fantasy draft and strategic insights make great sense.  The Rate My Team (David Dobbs) function in light of the Perfect Draft: 12 Team PPR - Footballguys article by David Dobbs is what I am seeking clarification.  

I am new to these parts, so I apologize if I am generating joke evoking fodder.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

As a side note, you might want to edit the title of your thread to stop getting "Dobbs" jokes from people

Then how will Dobbs ever know about it?

 

[northern exposure]

Fair enough. Your fantasy draft and strategic insights make great sense.  The Rate My Team (David Dobbs) function in light of the Perfect Draft: 12 Team PPR - Footballguys article by David Dobbs is what I am seeking clarification.  

I am new to these parts, so I apologize if I am generating joke evoking fodder.

jonny,

your David "Dobbs" shtick may have run its course.  

 

[jonny sun quest]

jonny,

your David "Dobbs" shtick may have run its course.  

Honestly, I wasn't trying to be funny, sarcastic or insulting. Clearly, a lot of you guys are regulars and long timers. And I didn't't mean to disrespect or provoke you guys or the football guys. I don't know David Dobbs (he's listed as a founder of the site) or what his name means around these parts. I am only referencing him as the article author in contrast with the name in the Draft Dominator Rate My Team.

I actually enjoyed reading his article and found his rankings and strategy informative, which is why I was surprised the software didn't seem to reflect his views there. But anyways...the thread may have run its course due to attrition and low sincere interest.

 

[northern exposure]

Honestly, I wasn't trying to be funny, sarcastic or insulting. Clearly, a lot of you guys are regulars and long timers. And I didn't't mean to disrespect or provoke you guys or the football guys. I don't know David Dobbs (he's listed as a founder of the site) or what his name means around these parts. I am only referencing him as the article author in contrast with the name in the Draft Dominator Rate My Team.

I actually enjoyed reading his article and found his rankings and strategy informative, which is why I was surprised the software didn't seem to reflect his views there. But anyways...the thread may have run its course due to attrition and low sincere interest.

Well jerry, I will say you are certainly committed to your shtick.

 

[jonny sun quest]

jonny,

your David "Dobbs" shtick may have run its course.  

Oh, damn, huge apologies. I spelled the guy's name wrong. Sorry.

Mr. Dodds--apologies. Going to edit my content here.

 

[4th&inches]

I've had my issues with several features of paid content. 

Certainly I don't expect mixing "some of the yella" with some of the blue (major points to anyone who understands where that quote comes from). What I mean by that is that I don't mix a lot of the FBG stuff because it doesn't gel most of the time.

I think you guys have pretty much nailed the issues/ assisted on the questions Jonny had. I just came in here to comment that this might be one of the best/ funniest references I've read in a while. Well done my friend, well done. Cousin Eddie would be proud.