Ok now for a more serious response. I really like the QBBC this year, because my analysis of the position pushes me to wait at least until Ryan/Stafford and or RG3, and the same logic points to waiting until roughly QB12. However, if I'm in a league with 20 roster spots, I'm probably looking for 3 QBs if going QBBC although normally I wouldn't carry that many. If 18 player roster, then only 2 QBs. Finally, if it's a 10 team league, I'd avoid QBBC, and much prefer it in 12 teams.
When looking for QBBC candidates I'm looking for 3 things:
(1) rushing yards,
(2) a high number of attempts, and
(3) WR/TE weapons. Playing in a dome is kind of a half point. With that in mind:
Tier 1:
I think Luck and Romo are actually a faux-QBBC, but are in the discussion because of variance in ADP - FFC has them as QB11 and 12. I'd most prefer to get one of these guys and another Tier 2 guy, but that's not a true QBBC. Not really a high-risk strategy because these guys are as safe as it gets outside the Elite, probably safer than Wilson or Kaep. But I suspect in many shark leagues they will be drafted as such, probably as QBs 9 and 10.
Luck - 250 rushing yards and 5 TDs rushing, so #1. Indy already had 628 pass attempts last year (6th in the league), so Luck certainly has #2. I think Wayne counts as a decent weapon and the TEs could develop into real assets so #3. Plus dome. 3.5 points.
Romo - 658 pass attempts (3rd in the league), so #2. And Dez/Austin/Witten qualify as nice weapons, so #3. He has occassional run for more than 100 yards a year and a TD every other season, so I can't call him a rushing threat. But, dome. 2.5 points.
Tier 2
Eli - Giants were actually in the bottom half of the league for pass attempts last year, and he's never had more than 600 attempts. I guess the loss of Bradshaw points toward more passing, but this is still a Coughlin team. So no #2. Obviously no rushing yards. But Nicks & Cruz are awesome weapons, so #3 is good. No dome. I don't think Manning is going to lose a league for your, but I don't see much chance he really blows up for another 4,900 - his career baseline is closer to 4,000 and I'd expect that to stay the same. Safe, but little upside. 1 point.
Vick - I think his ADP is misleading right now. Either he'll win the camp battle, and ADP will rise, or he'll lose out and have no value at all. If he wins, I'd expect his ADP to climb up to QB10-12 range. Assuming he wins the battle, AND you can get him at QB12 or after, I like his chances. Clearly #1 rushing yards, and #3 with Maclin and Desean. It remains to be seen what Kelley will do in terms of run/pass, but clearly he's going to run a lot of plays so there's potential for all 3. I'll give him half a point for passing attempts based on Kelley's high speed offense. 2.5 points.
Dalton - nothing really interest me here. He has AJ Green, so #3 but no rushing and a conservative offense. He's like Eli Manning with less upside. NEXT. 1 point.
Big Ben - I've heard that he was on a 4,400 yard pass last year, so that suggests he's viable. Pitt was actually top half of passing attempts last year, and they still don't have much of a running game. But losing Wallace hurts because Brown and Sanders are probably better #2 and #3 WRs. Also, Miller coming off an ACL. I'll give him the point for passing attempts but that's it. 1 point.
Cutler - pretty excited about this guy. He has weapons in Marshall, Bennet, hopefully Jeffrey and Forte. The new offense should be more pass heavy so not going to hold a small number of attempts against him. No rushing though. 2 points.
Flacco - again, not much interests me here. I'll wager that they'll throw it (right in the middle for pass attempts), but he doesn't have a dominant receiver, and can't run, except when playing the Bengals as a rookie. 1 point.
Rivers - all the reasons that made me dislike him last year remain. Possibly the worst WR corp in the league, and Gates is done. Also bottom half of the league in pass attempts. His old YPA shows he has talent; the question of whether or not he still has the skills is mostly irrelevant because there's no talent around him. Although I do like Vince Brown as a sleeper WR. That's the only player I would touch on this offense, aside from possibly Mathews if he falls. 0 points.
Palmer - he has Fitz, and plays on a team that can't run effectively, and he chucked it himself a lot last year on the Raiders (5th most passing attempts). Arizona had the 8th most passing attempts. Obviously no rushing. This analysis favors him, but I'd be concerned about drafting him in leagues that penalize -2 for INTs, and like him more in -1 for INTs. 2 points.
Bradford - all signs suggest STL is gearing up to enter the top 1/3 of the league in passing attempts: no primary RB, lots of offensive weapons added, and they know they can't win in their division by trying to out-smashmouth SF and Seattle. I'm going to give him a half point based on potential weapons (Cook, Austin, Givens) and a full point for an expected 600+ passing attempts. 1.5 points.
Schaub - AJ and a run heavy offense. Generously 1 point.
Josh Freeman - oh yes. Averages 200+ rushing yards a season and maybe a TD. VJax, Mike Williams, and Doug Martin are awesome weapons. And he already attempted 566 attempts last year (top half) and threw for 4,000 - I'll call that a half point for passing attempts. A 4,000 yard passer with rushing ability is a diamond in the rough this low on the ADP (round 13). 2.5 points.
Tannehill - all 3 are possibilities, as they have added Wallace, and don't appear to have much of a running game, so they should increase in passing attempts. Might run some zone read and Tannehill is athletic enough to rush (200 and 2 TDs last year). I'm going to give him 2 poitns based on weapons and rushing because Miami is still probably middle of the pack in pass attempts. 2 points.
The only other player worth mentioning, and I don't think he warrants drafting but could potentially be an early season pickup is Jake Locker. He has the chance to rush, and might have quality weapons if Britt returns to freak status.
In order of points:
Vick (but very high risk), Freeman (very low ADP), Cutler, Palmer, Tannehill, Bradford.
Putting it all together:
Luck and Romo are faux-QBBC guys as they each have the potential to get in the top 5. Great pickups. Get one of them and then a very late guy like Freeman or Tannehill or Bradford.
Failing that, grab 2 or 3 of the following guys: Vick, Cutler, Palmer, Bradford, Freeman, or Tannehill. This is the true QBBC because it would make anyone nervous as hell to come out of you draft with, say, Cutler Bradford and Freeman. But this really allows you to maximize depth at other positions, because you won't need to take Cutler until about the 11th round.
Some strategic notes - I like either QBBC strategy particularly if I grab TE Graham in the late 1st or early 2nd, because you're going to be behind at RB and WR and need to add depth. Graham + 9 RBs/WRs and then a QBBC is a solid way to build a roster. Alternatively, if I'm waiting on TE and looking for something like Olsen, Finley, or Cameron, I don't really want to go QBBC because (1) you're probably going to be weak or only average at both QB and TE, and (2) ADP starts to overlap I don't want to have to choose between Cutler and Cameron if I don't have a QB OR a TE.
:X with those other QBBC guys though. Makes me lean heavily toward getting a legit QB1...
