Norseman
Footballguy
rankings
There are a few interesting selections...for meJacksonville at 3, Minnesota at 7, and Cleveland at 9 all seem a little high...although I hope he's right about Minnesota (or he has them too low)There might be a Lito Sheppard trade between now and training camp, and Jerry Jones might pay dearly for Chad Johnson before Labor Day. But it's May, and the offseason personnel side of the business is mostly over.
Now that every team has done just about every significant thing it can do before opening day, let's see how the power structure has changed in the league since the end of the year.
The short answer: Not much, other than the rise of Jacksonville, Carolina and the Jets. But you might find a surprise or two in the first 2008 ranking of the teams from one through 32 -- get ready to send in those we-don't-get-no-respect e-mails, Giants fans -- just eight days after the draft. Read and react:
THE HO-HUM SECTION
1. New England. No team fixes the startlingly bad things as well as New England. And what sticks with me from last season is how porous the offensive line was against the Giants in the Super Bowl, and how poorly Richard Seymour played in the postseason. Tom Brady was pressured significantly -- an ungodly 23 times in the championship game -- while Seymour had zero sacks and zero quarterback pressures in the three playoff games. The line, which allowed 1.3 sacks per game in the regular season, and Seymour are better than that.
Some might read into New England's draft approach as arrogant. Quarterback in the third round, dealing another third-round pick for a 2009 second-rounder, no offensive linemen. I view it as a confident team doing what's best for the long haul. The Patriots' response to almost getting Brady killed in the Super Bowl -- basically, doing nothing on the offensive line in free-agency or the draft -- tells me Dante Scarnecchia, New England's offensive line guru since the Hannah years, will figure out a way to seal the cracks.
2. Indianapolis. Because we don't know what's going to happen in the Marvin Harrison case in Philadelphia -- and even if he makes a clean break of the shooting allegations before July, we don't know if he's going to be healthy enough to be a force again -- we'll leave him out of the fate of the Colts for now.
Jake Scott migrating to Tennessee is a loss, as was the defection of second tight end Ben Utecht to Cincinnati. But a guard's a guard and a backup tight end is replaceable. The Colts did re-sign guard Ryan Lilja and starting tight end Dallas Clark. Underrated rotational defensive end Josh Thomas also re-signed, so there wasn't a lot of Colts pillaging this offseason.
Dwight Freeney should come back healthy from his Lisfranc injury; his presence in the postseason would have made a big difference in the loss to San Diego. The bottom line with my top two teams is this: Bill Belichick and Tony Dungy are still there. Scott Pioli and Bill Polian are still there. Brady and Peyton Manning are still there. They went 31-5 last year. The opposition might be chipping away, but these are still the two best teams in football.
NOW IT GETS A LITTLE INTERESTING
3. Jacksonville. "Why'd they let Marcus Stroud go?'' Jags fan Jonathan Papelbon asked me a couple of weeks ago. Long story. Ankle surgery, four-game suspension last year, age (29), unwillingness to pay him big money anymore. Now the underappreciated Rob Meier's going to have to plug the gap there. I think he can, and I think Jack Del Rio will scheme around the loss of Stroud.
What I like about the Jags is that they've addressed their pass-rush need with the daring trade-up for Derrick Harvey -- who will have to be good right away -- and they have a quarterback of the future who's not a worry. David Garrard was pure guts in beating Pittsburgh on the road in the playoffs, and he was pretty good in a playoff loss at New England, with confident scoring drives of 80 and 95 yards. Jacksonville people are more sure than I am that Raider import Jerry Porter will be a reliable receiving weapon for them. I'll have to see it to believe it because I've seen too much inconsistency from him.
The Jags had a good defense last year, allowing 19 points a game. If Harvey's a DeMarcus Ware-type presence as a rookie, which scouts think he can be, they could morph into a premier defense and be serious Super Bowl challengers in an impossible conference.
4. Dallas. The Cowboys still need a receiver; the thought of Patrick Crayton playing crunch-time minutes in a playoff game has to be a nightmare to any Cowboy fan. But there's not much else they need to win the NFC.
I'm assuming Pacman Jones will be reinstated, though I have no inside information; and if he does play, he'll be a huge threat on the other side of Terence Newman. If he doesn't, rookie Mike Jenkins' development will have to progress faster than Wade Phillips would like. Otherwise, the Cowboys haven't changed much. Explosive offense with a power running game, pressure defense with what could be a much better secondary. That's how you win in the NFL.
5. San Diego. I kept thinking: Why not put the Chargers over the Colts? They beat Indy at Indy in the playoffs and were the better team. The Colts aren't that much better on offense (only five touchdowns better, in fact, last year), and San Diego's free-agent losses (Michael Turner, Drayton Florence) were offset by the drafting of Antoine Cason and Jacob Hester. I think the key is this: I've got to see Philip Rivers perform at a high level consistently to think this is a Super Bowl winner, particularly in a conference as tough as the top-heavy AFC.
6. New York Giants. This is a team that caught fire at the right time and rode the wave to a title. Was it the best team in football in 2007? For the last two games of the year, yes. For the rest of the season, not even close. But the last two games of the season are the biggest.
Funny how a season progresses: In Weeks 9-14, the Giants went 3-3, losing three times by double digits and winning by six, five and three points. Then, ka-boom.
Moving forward, the Giants will be fortunate if Michael Strahan plays. I think he'll retire because he always said he was playing for a ring, and now he's got it, and a cushy Fox job awaits. But the Giants will still be able to kill the passer if he does because Mathias Kiwanuka will be back healthy.
Eli Manning had a charmed postseason, but he's got to be more accurate than 56.1 percent for the Giants to be better than 14th in scoring offense, which they were a year ago. The encouraging thing about Manning is that the day after the Super Bowl, he was already talking about the things he needed to do to get better. Smart, because he knows he has to be more consistent to be a top quarterback. This should be a maturing offensive team and a threatening team on D.
7. Minnesota. I can hear you all out there saying, "Too soon." Well, here's my question: What year in recent NFL history hasn't a Green Bay (2007), New Orleans (2006), Chicago (2005) or Pittsburgh (2004) jumped from nowheresville to Super-Bowl contention?
The Vikings do have a totally unproven passing game, but they still outscored Philly, Washington and Denver last year with the best running game in the league for about half the season. Minnesota had the biggest (by far) edge in average rushing margin per team last year, rushing for 5.3 yards a tote while surrendering 3.1 yards per carry. And though I don't love the Jared Allen signing for the long haul (too dangerous), I love it for 2008. Allen's quickness on the turf of the Metrodome ... scary. Maybe 20-sack scary.
8. Green Bay. This pick is predicated on two assumptions: That Aaron Rodgers is almost as good for 16 weeks as he was for one half in Dallas last November and that Ryan Grant's last eight weeks of 2007 are no mirage. If Rodgers can play and Grant can stay upright for 16 weeks, this is an 11-win team, or better.
I don't worry about the loss of defensive tackle mainstay Corey Williams to Cleveland because of the depth Ted Thompson and Mike McCarthy have built. And I don't worry about the loss of Brett Favre sending Green Bay into a tailspin. Late last year Rodgers told me, "I'd be worried about playing now and the team accepting me if I hadn't seen it on the faces of these players. I think they trust me to be able to win football games for us.'' I do, too.
9. Cleveland. How can a draftless team improve? Because this team had its draft in free-agency. A couple of things worry me, as they should every Browns fan. Will Shaun Rogers be a player for half the season and an unproductive blob the other half? I don't know. And will Kellen Winslow hold out or do something Chad Johnson-ish to ruin the great karma of the NFL's new national TV darlings?
This team has five prime-time games for the first time since Paul Brown prowled the sidelines and Jim Brown was a runner, not a protester. "I think our guys will like it,'' said GM Phil Savage. "I think they'll take to the challenge.''
Nice words and maybe even true ones. But Cleveland's opponents -- like Dallas on opening day -- will think they're going to have to play really well to beat the Browns. In other words, Cleveland's not going to catch anyone by surprise. The pressure's on. I think leader types such as Willie McGinest and Jamal Lewis, who have been there before, will help keep heads on straight.
10. Carolina. Surprise. Take your leap-of-faith pill and follow me. Jake Delhomme threw 35 balls with some velocity the other day at mini-camp, his first good throws in a team drill since he wrecked his elbow last year. Jonathan Stewart and his surgically repaired turf toe should be ready to pound defenses by Labor Day. Julius Peppers can't be as bad this year as he was last year. (This team had 23 sacks last year. Peppers should contend for two-thirds that number himself every year.)
So I'm counting on the offensive line, fortified by the deal for rookie tackle Jeff Otah, to be better, and I'm counting on Peppers to put significantly more pressure on the quarterback. There is no way a John Fox team should give up 30 points five times, as it did last year, and I expect a more competent offense to possess the ball more this year. It has to for Fox's team to grind out some wins, and it will with the brawny Stewart in the backfield.
ROUND UP THE USUAL SUSPECTS
11. Philadelphia. The story's the same as ever in Reid-land: Donovan McNabb has to stay upright for 16 games for this team to have a chance to play deep into January. He's missed two, four and seven starts in the last three years. That's partly why the Eagles have fallen considerably short of their second Super Bowl appearance in the McNabb era.
Two assists for him this year. Lorenzo Booker's a better alter-ego to Brian Westbrook than Correll Buckhalter has been. And DeSean Jackson, even at 170 pounds soaking wet, should be a bit more of a stretch-the-defense third or fourth receiver than McNabb has had. If Jackson does nothing else, at least he'll spice up the blah return game (8.1 yards per punt return and 21.7 on kickoffs is no way to win ball games). Oh, and it would be nice if McNabb's tackles could block the Giants.
12. Pittsburgh. This has nothing to do with the toughest schedule any of us has ever seen -- all 10 non-division foes were .500 or better last year -- because if it did, the Steelers would be slightly lower. I worry about the Pittsburgh offensive line, and I worry about the pass-rush. Both areas broke down while the Steelers lost four of their last five (two to Jacksonville at home) in the last month of the season.
But I think they'll be at least as good as they were last year, all things considered. Ben Roethlisberger (32-to-11 touchdown-to-interception differential) was terrific last year, and he could be better with a big target, rookie Limas Sweed, roaming down the seam on third downs. And a Parker-Mendenhall-Davenport rushing trifecta means the Steelers should have a run-pass percentage more like 55-45 than the 51-49 of 2007. A dominant running game has always been a Steelers staple, and it has to return for Pittsburgh to control the ball against the best teams in the league, most of whom the Steelers will face this year.
13. Buffalo. I like Trent Edwards having a full season to play quarterback; I like Paul Posluszny returning to anchor a young defense; I like Marshawn Lynch older, stronger and wiser. I even like the ability and cockiness of first-round pick Leodis McKelvin to win a starting job by October ... and I'm tempted to like a 6-foot-7 receiver who caught 16 touchdown passes in that non-passing-hotbed of Indiana University last fall, second-round pick James Hardy. This is an interesting team. If the youth plays at a B level, the Bills could win 10 games.
14. New York Jets. If Eric Mangini learned one thing from all those years with Bill Belichick, it's pressure or perish. Pressure the quarterback well or go 4-12. And the Jets' pressure was pathetic last year. The guys who were supposed to rush the passer (Bryan Thomas, Shaun Ellis, Keyon Coleman and Victor Hobson) combined for 11 sacks.
This year the Jets should have three sacks a game, easy, with first-rounder Vernon Gholston and expensive free agent, Calvin Pace, coming from the edge and Kris Jenkins pushing the pile and drawing attention in the middle. ("I want to thank the Jets for getting that guy out of our division and out of my hair,'' Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden said last month.) One other thing, Jets brass: Give Kellen Clemens a chance to be the quarterback; don't put him through an eight-game trial. Don't you know what you have in Chad Pennington by now?
15. Seattle. I'm one of the few people who actually liked their draft. I loved them taking the best blocking back in college football (WVU's Owen Schmitt), the best long-snapper in college football (Tyler Schmitt of San Diego State) and a tackle (Red Bryant) for their defensive-line rotation.
Seattle did addition by subtraction by totally re-doing its backfield, and though Julius Jones is not a top-10 back, he's a hard runner who won't take 15 seconds to pick a hole the way Shaun Alexander did last year.
Not sure how the Mike Holmgren swan-song will work; generally a guy who says he's retiring at season's end spends more time than he should thinking about golf in Scottsdale. We'll see how the Holmgren/Jim Mora dance works over the next eight months.
16. New Orleans. Now we're getting to the "if only'' area. If only the Saints had gotten Jeremy Shockey, if only Reggie Bush were a more complete NFL back, if only they had Leodis McKelvin on an island this fall instead of Jason David, Randall Gay or Aaron Glenn ... you get the picture.
But this is still a team that, with the right breaks and good health, could easily win the NFC South. A quarterback, good lines on both sides of the ball and good-enough receiving weapons make New Orleans a threat every Sunday. But this team has to get off the roller coaster. The Saints started with four losses, followed by four wins, and ended the season with two wins followed by two losses. By the way, Drew Brees threw for 4,423 yards and 28 touchdowns last year ... and no one thought he played that well. That guy is one heck of a quarterback.
17. Tampa Bay. The Bucs might be the only team to open training camp with more quarterbacks than it will have wins at the end of the year. (By the way, could Gruden please put Chris Simms out of his misery and send him somewhere where he'd have a chance to play?) It's a pretty dangerous thing to rely on Jeff Garcia to make it through a full season and know that Brian Griese is warming up in the bullpen.
That's the reason I don't trust Tampa Bay to be an 11-win team. I don't trust the cast of thousands at quarterback, even with Gruden coaching 'em up. I do like a couple of things. The addition of center Jeff Faine shores up the weakest spot on the offensive line. (Other than Alan Faneca, Faine was the best guard/center who moved in free-agency.) And the return of Warrick Dunn should provide six or eight chances to break one every game. And I don't care about the terminally unhappy Brian Kelly being gone.
18. Washington. I can't think of a team in the NFL with more questions. With a big need at pass-rusher, the Redskins stayed out of the free-agent market totally and went receiver-tight end-receiver on their first three draft picks. I don't know if Jason Campbell is the long-term answer at quarterback; certainly the Redskins don't know either. Can Jim Zorn head-coach? Who knows? The one thing I do know is I like Dan Snyder getting off the Steinbrenner-esque spend-spend-spend merry-go-round and becoming a guy who just might be learning how to build a team. Might, I said.
THEY COULD WIN TEN OR SIX
19. Houston. Logic says an 8-8 team that finished 3-1 with a young quarterback and maturing defense should be ready to take the next step, particularly with a salty old hand like Alex Gibbs taking an underachieving running game into his capable hands this spring and summer. But Matt Schaub -- efficient (.664) but inexperienced in his half season at the helm -- is really still an unknown, as is the 28-year-old offensive coordinator who will mentor Schaub, Kyle Shanahan, the youngest coordinator in the league. We'll have to see the progress first to believe the Texans are much improved, particularly in a division and conference as tough as the one they have to conquer if they hope to play in January.
20. Tennessee. I want to like Vince Young, and his improvement from 52 to 62 percent in accuracy from his rookie year to his second season helps a little. But this is the year he's got to start being consistent if the Titans are going to make the playoffs again and again. He threw nine touchdowns and 17 interceptions last year.
He needed a good wide receiver this offseason and was given Justin McCareins in free agency (drops too many balls) and another running back in the draft, the fleet Chris Johnson. One more thing about Tennessee. If you think I've dropped them for no reason, think back to last year. The Titans were 7-6 entering the home stretch. They beat playing-for-nothing Kansas City by nine, the playing-for-nothing Jets by four, and the truly playing-for-nothing Colts by six. Those are the breaks of the schedule.
21. Arizona. Paul Zimmerman wanted me to put the Cards higher. But I don't know who's playing quarterback, nor how good that quarterback will be. I don't know how much Edgerrin James has left coming off a 3.8-yards-per-carry season. I do know a defense that allowed a gaudy 399 points will be a little better because of the arrival of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie at corner. But every year for the past three or four, some wise man in the media (I think it was me two years ago) says, "This is Arizona's year.'' And in the last four of those Arizona years, the Cards have gone 6-10, 5-11, 5-11 and 8-8.
22. Baltimore. Joe Flacco's got a big arm, the biggest in the draft this year. He may make it as a rookie starter, but not many kids from Delaware step in as rookie starters in the NFL -- never mind rookie starting quarterbacks.
What worries me about the kid is this: He doesn't have the most self-confident air about him, and what happens if he starts slowly and feels the hot breath of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed on his neck?
It'll be up to one of the most positive coaches ever to walk an NFL sideline, John Harbaugh, to make sure the spotlight isn't too big for Flacco. The Ravens are in a tough spot. They need to bring Flacco along slowly to build his confidence, but with a defense built to win now, they can't take it too slow with him. It'll be an interesting chemistry experiment in Baltimore this year.
23. Denver. Just whom exactly do you count on in Denver? The courageously diabetic quarterback? The who-knows-what-to-believe star wideout Brandon Marshall? Or the coach who might be running out of tricks with his magic wand?
The Broncos gave up 26 points a game last year. And just how embarrassing must it be to surrender more than 30 to Houston, Chicago and the Oakland Raiders, for God's sake, all in the span of 18 days? The Broncos' most important acquisition to help that defense has never started an NFL game. Niko Koutouvides will play middle 'backer after backing up strong linebackers for four years in Seattle. Not too much pressure on him, is there?
24. Cincinnati. Talked to Marvin Lewis the other day (more on that conversation in the Tuesday column), and he sounded very much like this is going to be a No-More-Mr.-Nice-Guy season. It was right about that time that Kentucky authorities said starting linebacker Ahmad Brooks had a June court date for allegedly punching a woman in the face.
Hey. Look on the bright side. At least Chad Johnson hasn't opened his mouth this month. Yet.
Lewis made it clear the Bengals were drawing a line in the sand with Johnson, which is just another reason to think this could be a season of distractions that could once more derail the Bengals. By the way, this super offense, with the great receivers? Outscored by five points last year. Hard to imagine Cincinnati turning it around this year.
25. Chicago. It's become fairly easy and fashionable to pile on the Bears for going three straight drafts -- 28 picks in all -- without picking a quarterback, despite going three consecutive years in the NFL's bottom quartile in team quarterback rating.
Beginning on Oct. 9 the Bears will play five top-10-caliber defenses in a seven-game midseason stretch (Vikes, Titans, Packers, Vikes, Jags), and by the end of that period I'll be stunned if Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton don't have every Chicago fan looking skyward and asking, "Why didn't we draft Chad Henne in the second round?''
You also have to be worried about the health and the holdout of Brian Urlacher, which is quite a dilemma. Do you pay a guy who's such a great leader but who also might be entering a fragile state of health? Lovie Smith will have to lord over an unsettled team.
GET YOUR NORMAN VINCENT PEALE SPEECHES READY
26. Detroit. I give up. Every year I think this has to be the season Detroit finally gets over the hump. Nope. Won't get fooled again. Lions are staring down the barrel of 6-10. But there's something different in Detroit, I think. It's Marinelli-ball. We're not seeing the quick fixes of the past.
Coach Rod Marinelli doesn't worry that he might lose his job; well, maybe he does, but his moves sure don't show it. He's going with a sea change at offensive coordinator, from the liberal Mike Martz to the conservative Jim Colletto, changing blocking schemes and three or four starters. And he may have five new starters on defense.
One thing Detroit really should do: Find out if last year's second-round pick, Drew Stanton, can play quarterback in the NFL. That's a question the Lions must answer for 2008.
27. Miami. I don't know who's playing quarterback, who's catching the ball or if Jason Taylor will ever speak to the great and powerful Bill "Oz'' Parcells. But you ask the people who know Parcells the best, and they'll tell you they like the way he's shaking up the bottom of the roster, and he's on his way to building a team that will give the Patriots a game soon. To do that in 2009 or '10, the Dolphins have to discover if they've got their quarterback of the future on the roster now. Best chance to be The Man, of course, is second-round pick Chad Henne.
28. San Francisco. When Mike Nolan took over the coaching job here three years ago, what do you think he'd have said if you told him: "Mike, in the year that decides if you stay or get canned, there's a good chance Shaun Hill will be your starting quarterback and Isaac Bruce your key receiving weapon?'' Heck, Bruce was old when Nolan took the job. And I can guarantee you Nolan had never heard of Hill when he took over.
Strange days in San Francisco, especially with the arrival of Mike Martz to retool a horrific offense that scored in single digits in six of the final 13 games last year. Hill will try to beat out Alex Smith, the former first pick in the draft, and my guess is Nolan thinks Hill is better. To get into the playoffs looks like a 50-foot putt on an undulating green for the Niners.
29. St. Louis. Look on the bright side: I talked to a personnel guy the other day who said, "Chris Long was the top player on our board. The Rams have no idea what a great player they're getting.'' I like the Long pick because he'll be driven every-day he is on this planet to prove his legions of doubters wrong.
Jake Long would have been a better pick for this team, but that's a moot point because he wasn't available. Orlando Pace can't make it through a year healthy, and Alex Barron is a below-average player ... those are your bookend tackles, the guys who have to keep a relatively frail (for a quarterback) Marc Bulger upright for 16 weeks. Unless Bulger makes it through the year unscathed, I'd be surprised if the Rams won six games.
30. Oakland. We're beating a dead Darth Vader to say it's broke, and Al's not fixing it. Winning 4, 5, 4, 2 and 4 games over the last five years (New England won 18 last year; Oakland's won 19 in a half-decade) should tell you something. But it doesn't tell the Raiders anything, except, "Let's keep doing what we've been doing and see what happens.''
For this year, maybe JaMarcus Russell throwing to Javon Walker will get it done, though you can't count on Walker with his injury history to play 16 games. And maybe DeAngelo Hall and Nnamdi Asomugha will form the best cornerback tandem in football and repel big days from Jay Cutler and Philip Rivers. Maybe. The best thing Oakland could do is hand the team to a good coach (I vote for Lane Kiffin) and let him build the team his way. It can't be any worse than what's happening now.
31. Kansas City. Glee and happiness over the great draft, and rightfully so. But two things to remember before the ticker tape starts flowing past Crown Center: Jared Allen's gone. And there's no apparent starting quarterback.
Tamba Hali could emerge as a super-rusher with Tank Tyler and Glenn Dorsey occupying bodies at defensive tackle, but that won't happen overnight. The odds are less likely that Brodie Croyle will emerge as a middle-of-the-pack quarterback. The Chiefs will be looking for the best quarterback in the draft next April.
32. Atlanta. No one said it would be easy. When you need 12 to 15 new starters, you're basically dealing with a construction job like an expansion team. Now the Falcons have their quarterback, they hope, and their left tackle, they hope, in Matt Ryan and Sam Baker, respectively -- though there's universal doubt about Baker's ability to play left tackle in the NFL. Arthur Blank will need patience here. If he really believes Thomas Dimitroff and Mike Smith are the men for this reconstruction, he's got to give them three or four years to get it done ... minimum.
my guess: King was implying that Jacksonville's age makes them a top 3 team. They are a young team with a terrific defense and g-r-e-a-t offensive line..
to say the least.
