Peyton Hillis, RB, Cleveland Browns (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Peyton Hillis, RB, Cleveland Browns

Player Page Link: Peyton Hillis Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Jason Wood]

I was surprised to see that Peyton Hillis is one of the most divisive players in the first round of staff rankings. I'm not sure if they're up yet for public consumption, but I see that we have him ranging from RB4 all the way down to RB21. That's a HUGE preseason skew. I'm actually the guy that has him at RB4, which clearly indicates I'm not willing to give Montario Hardesty any credit until I see him on a practice field and hear from the new coaching staff that he's going to be more than Hillis' backup.

To me, at a time when there is SOOOOOOOOOOOO much uncertainty in the league, Hillis is a sure thing. He's a workhorse, he's built for that role, plays on a team that will need to stay committed to the ground game to have any chance of success, and was wildly productive last year. As much as we might joke about the Madden Curse, I can't fathom that so many people would view a guy picked to be on the cover as someone that will easily fall into a true time share, which you would have to think to rank him in the low teens or 20s at the position.

 

[Sweet Love]

Obviously, Hillis was one of (if not the) biggest surprises in Fantasy Football for the 2010 season. With the Browns having drafted Montario Hardesty, Jerome Harrison coming off of a record setting clip at the end of 2009 and highly touted 2009 draft pick, James Davis, coming off of a season ending injury. Hillis was thought to be a FB or RB3 on that team at best in the preseason. Hardesty ends up getting injured before the season starts, and Harrison is pulled early in favor of Hillis, and the "legend" is officially created.

It was a great year for him highlighted by a 144 rushing 1 TD and 7 catch effort against Baltimore and a 200+ total yard and 1 TD effort against NE. He played well against the tougher matchups and even put up 85 yards against the Jets. But, as many worried, with his big frame and rough running style, he broke down in weeks 14-16 (had some nagging injuries) and managed 0 TDs and just 107 yards rushing for those three weeks.

In 2011, he will certainly not be asked to do as much. While Harrison is gone (and Bell is not much of a threat), Hardesty is coming back and certainly will take away some carries. We're also not talking about a guy who rushed the ball 350 times and broke down...he had a somewhat conservative 270 carries. He is also losing Eric Managini as his HC. Say what you want about him as a person/manager, but he was dedicated to the run in Cleveland and NY, and the overall rushing numbers should reduce with him gone and McCoy developing in Year 2.

Value: One area where I think Hillis is overlooked, is his ability to catch the ball. Shockingly, he had 61 receptions on the year and in PPR leagues, coupled with his TD numbers, he was a monster. Hard to tell whether that will change as McCoy may still lean on him in the passing game until those CLE receivers really show they can break loose.

2010 numbers: 270 1177 11 4.4 61 477 2

Project 2011 numbers: 245 1078 11 4.4 53 450 1

He'll still be very valuable, but more of a low-end RB1/top-end RB2 than a bonafide star.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

I was surprised to see that Peyton Hillis is one of the most divisive players in the first round of staff rankings. I'm not sure if they're up yet for public consumption, but I see that we have him ranging from RB4 all the way down to RB21. That's a HUGE preseason skew. I'm actually the guy that has him at RB4, which clearly indicates I'm not willing to give Montario Hardesty any credit until I see him on a practice field and hear from the new coaching staff that he's going to be more than Hillis' backup.

To me, at a time when there is SOOOOOOOOOOOO much uncertainty in the league, Hillis is a sure thing. He's a workhorse, he's built for that role, plays on a team that will need to stay committed to the ground game to have any chance of success, and was wildly productive last year. As much as we might joke about the Madden Curse, I can't fathom that so many people would view a guy picked to be on the cover as someone that will easily fall into a true time share, which you would have to think to rank him in the low teens or 20s at the position.

Had Shurmur been a part of the Hardesty draft there may be more of a concern, so I do not see there being any loyalty to guy that has not shown a thing in the NFL. Having watched a good bit of PH last year, injuries are a major concern. It seemed like the guy was getting dinged on every single play. If he can stay healthy I think we see another good season from PH. Shurmur likes to get the ball to his backs and PH has shown he can be extremely effective in the dump off role.

285 Carries - 1,368 Yards - 9 tds

72 Receptions - 605 Yards - 5 tds

 

[LHUCKS]

Hillis lacks elite athleticism and talent so he'll likely be one of the most overvalued RBs in 2011 as owners will be expecting a repeat performance of 2010. His 4.4 YPC was mostly the result of pure will and determination but players like that don't last in the NFL. Do yourself a favor and let your draftmates reach on Hillis in the second round.

850 yards rushing

300 yards receiving

8 TDs

Hillis was a nice story, but NFL defenses are too athletic for a RB of his pedestrian abilities. Further his hard running style makes it likely he'll miss several games.

 

[Scooby1974]

Obviously, Hillis was one of (if not the) biggest surprises in Fantasy Football for the 2010 season. With the Browns having drafted Montario Hardesty, Jerome Harrison coming off of a record setting clip at the end of 2009 and highly touted 2009 draft pick, James Davis, coming off of a season ending injury. Hillis was thought to be a FB or RB3 on that team at best in the preseason. Hardesty ends up getting injured before the season starts, and Harrison is pulled early in favor of Hillis, and the "legend" is officially created.It was a great year for him highlighted by a 144 rushing 1 TD and 7 catch effort against Baltimore and a 200+ total yard and 1 TD effort against NE. He played well against the tougher matchups and even put up 85 yards against the Jets. But, as many worried, with his big frame and rough running style, he broke down in weeks 14-16 (had some nagging injuries) and managed 0 TDs and just 107 yards rushing for those three weeks. In 2011, he will certainly not be asked to do as much. While Harrison is gone (and Bell is not much of a threat), Hardesty is coming back and certainly will take away some carries. We're also not talking about a guy who rushed the ball 350 times and broke down...he had a somewhat conservative 270 carries. He is also losing Eric Managini as his HC. Say what you want about him as a person/manager, but he was dedicated to the run in Cleveland and NY, and the overall rushing numbers should reduce with him gone and McCoy developing in Year 2.Value: One area where I think Hillis is overlooked, is his ability to catch the ball. Shockingly, he had 61 receptions on the year and in PPR leagues, coupled with his TD numbers, he was a monster. Hard to tell whether that will change as McCoy may still lean on him in the passing game until those CLE receivers really show they can break loose.2010 numbers: 270 1177 11 4.4 61 477 2 Project 2011 numbers: 245 1078 11 4.4 53 450 1He'll still be very valuable, but more of a low-end RB1/top-end RB2 than a bonafide star.

With Hardesty's pedigree, the Cle passing game being a year more mature, and PH's propensity to get dinged up I'd bring the projected numbers down a bit further.220 968 8 4.455 450 2

 

[stbugs]

I am definitely down on Hillis for a few reasons:

1. He won't sneak up on Baltimore again. Look at game 2 versus Baltimore versus game 1.

2. He doesn't get to play Pittsburgh in week 17 again. It may not appear to be much, but playing 1 game against the top or one of the top rushing defenses during fantasy season instead of 2 really helped.

3. I went through the details in another Hillis thread, but suffice it to say he was the entire RB game for Cleveland last year. I just don't think that % of carries/receptions is sustainable.

4. If McCoy and any RB show any type of improvement at all, then Hillis' share of the pie will go down. Unless Cleveland turns into an offensive juggernaut and improves their total offense, which with one more game against Pitt and a more prepared Baltimore defense may be hard to do.

5. He absolutely wore down and was someone who probably lost a lot of people playoff games. Sure, they didn't draft him high, but after the season he had, he was definitely in people's lineups. He had 43 points in PPR leagues in the last 5 weeks, even with 15 receptions. That is 8ppg in PPR, which is bad. I wouldn't expect him to be firing up a masterful last few weeks if he gets as high a % of touches as in 2010.

That said, I don't think he is a bad play. He will be the RB1 in Cleveland, I just don't see him as RB4 and I would be extremely nervous if I selected him in the 1st round. I wouldn't want him as my #1RB unless he dropped a bit.

 

[Runningman]

It is interesting to read the negatives on Hillis since he is almost gaureenteed to be on my team next year as I can keep him for a 4th round draft pick. And I agree with some of the negatives, he seems like a guy you can draft and trade.

 

[LHUCKS]

It's nice to see a thread like this. These spotlights have traditionally been too heavy on the sunshine, only a small percentage of them are actually critical enought IMHO.

Nice job fellas.

theoretically you should be down on half the players and up on half the players(relative to where their consensus ranking/ADP is.) Hopefully we'll be closer to 50/50 in these threads this year.

 

[Jason Wood]

It's nice to see a thread like this. These spotlights have traditionally been too heavy on the sunshine, only a small percentage of them are actually critical enought IMHO.Nice job fellas. theoretically you should be down on half the players and up on half the players(relative to where their consensus ranking/ADP is.) Hopefully we'll be closer to 50/50 in these threads this year.

As the long-time "show runner" of the Spotlights, I agree with you LHUCKS. We definitely need the enthusiasm, but we also need the critical analysis. Now, to be fair, some players lend themselves more to this than others. For example, a Peyton Manning thread is only going to really have disagreement as to whether he's worth drafting at his ADP. No one is going to credibly argue that he's due for a big down year, for example.

 

[greggorymac]

I am definitely down on Hillis for a few reasons:

1. He won't sneak up on Baltimore again. Look at game 2 versus Baltimore versus game 1.

2. He doesn't get to play Pittsburgh in week 17 again. It may not appear to be much, but playing 1 game against the top or one of the top rushing defenses during fantasy season instead of 2 really helped.

3. I went through the details in another Hillis thread, but suffice it to say he was the entire RB game for Cleveland last year. I just don't think that % of carries/receptions is sustainable.

4. If McCoy and any RB show any type of improvement at all, then Hillis' share of the pie will go down. Unless Cleveland turns into an offensive juggernaut and improves their total offense, which with one more game against Pitt and a more prepared Baltimore defense may be hard to do.

5. He absolutely wore down and was someone who probably lost a lot of people playoff games. Sure, they didn't draft him high, but after the season he had, he was definitely in people's lineups. He had 43 points in PPR leagues in the last 5 weeks, even with 15 receptions. That is 8ppg in PPR, which is bad. I wouldn't expect him to be firing up a masterful last few weeks if he gets as high a % of touches as in 2010.

That said, I don't think he is a bad play. He will be the RB1 in Cleveland, I just don't see him as RB4 and I would be extremely nervous if I selected him in the 1st round. I wouldn't want him as my #1RB unless he dropped a bit.

Actually he does

 

[fightingillini]

While Hillis isn't the most gifted RB, he will be the lead dog on a CLE team that will run the ball a lot and has a solid OL. Runs hard, has good receiving skills, and can punch it in near the goalline. I see him around RB9-11.

250 car, 1100 yds, 9TD

55 rec, 400yds, 2TD

 

[fightingillini]

It's nice to see a thread like this. These spotlights have traditionally been too heavy on the sunshine, only a small percentage of them are actually critical enought IMHO.Nice job fellas. theoretically you should be down on half the players and up on half the players(relative to where their consensus ranking/ADP is.) Hopefully we'll be closer to 50/50 in these threads this year.

Need the spotlights on players that will have the most varying opinions.

 

[moderated]

Wore down at end of season. Possible PED risks. Defenses will be more familiar with his game. Coach wants to share running load.

180 carries/740 yards

35 rec/270 yards

8 total td's

One of the most over-rated fantasy rb's going into the 2011 season. Buyer beware, implosion likely.

 

[replacements]

Hillis lacks elite athleticism and talent so he'll likely be one of the most overvalued RBs in 2011 as owners will be expecting a repeat performance of 2010. His 4.4 YPC was mostly the result of pure will and determination but players like that don't last in the NFL. Do yourself a favor and let your draftmates reach on Hillis in the second round.

850 yards rushing

300 yards receiving

8 TDs

Hillis was a nice story, but NFL defenses are too athletic for a RB of his pedestrian abilities. Further his hard running style makes it likely he'll miss several games.

i agree with a lot that has been posted about hillis. I don't expect him to perform up to his ff draft pick. But did I miss something. Did NFL defenses become more athletic this year. This guy is very athletic.He may not have the speed, or be able to cut as well as some of the smaller backs, but he catches the ball extremely well,can make some guys miss and run the rest over. unfortunately that wears him down as the season goes on.

 

[Couch Potato]

Anyone who ranks Hillis anywhere near the top 10 RBs (Wood!!!) needs to do more thorough reading IMO.

Shurmer (in Feb), Holmgren (in March), and Heckert (in May) have all said they want a tandem backfield, noting tha Hillis wore down as evidenced by his less than pedestrian 3.8 YPC over the last 8 games of the season. Hardesty is probably the more talented back and they plan to use him liberally. I believe he'll match or exceed Hillis' carries when the season is through.

Fellas, you can't just begin with last year's stats and then make minor tweaks to come up with projections.. You MUST UNDERSTAND the roles coaches plan for players in the upcoming season and project accordingly. I've been harping on this for years but of course guys will until the end of time start with Hillis' 270 carries in 2010 and do a minor tweak because, whoa, it's too bold and scary to do something radically different. Well, forget anything close to 270 carries.

160-680-6 rushing

40-320-2 receiving

 

[Jason Wood]

Potato, you've been around long enough to know that there's no pissing in the Shark Pool, and ESPECIALLY in the Spotlights.

Feel free to disagree, but don't turn this into an attack on the other people making projections -- staff or otherwise.

 

[jeter23]

Anyone who ranks Hillis anywhere near the top 10 RBs (Wood!!!) needs to do more thorough reading IMO.Shurmer (in Feb), Holmgren (in March), and Heckert (in May) have all said they want a tandem backfield, noting tha Hillis wore down as evidenced by his less than pedestrian 3.8 YPC over the last 8 games of the season. Hardesty is probably the more talented back and they plan to use him liberally. I believe he'll match or exceed Hillis' carries when the season is through.Fellas, you can't just begin with last year's stats and then make minor tweaks to come up with projections.. You MUST UNDERSTAND the roles coaches plan for players in the upcoming season and project accordingly. I've been harping on this for years but of course guys will until the end of time start with Hillis' 270 carries in 2010 and do a minor tweak because, whoa, it's too bold and scary to do something radically different. Well, forget anything close to 270 carries.160-680-6 rushing40-320-2 receiving

 

[Jason Wood]

A few things:

1) Coachspeak is just that, coachspeak...we can look back at stuff said in March/April/May every year and reflect on how it's what they want to have happen, not what actually happens

2) The Browns only ran 891 offense snaps last year, a ridiculously low number. I have a lot of faith in Shurmur and his new staff, and think the Browns will run the ball more than 413 times. Hardesty can net 120-150 carries easily and Hillis will still get plenty of touches each game to justify a high finish.

3) I would think by now people realize that we don't take rankings and projections lightly. This is my 12th year doing this for the site, and I generate detailed projections for every player down to the last snap each season, and adjust them with rapid regularity. Those who have been around also know that I am conservative with my early projections until I see evidence to the contrary. While I realize Hardesty has the pedigree and verbal support to warrant an RBBC, I need to see him on the practice field, participating fully, with no setbacks before I'm willing to give him projections reflective of an RBBC

Will it surprise me if I tweak Hillis down as the preseason wear on? Not at all, but it also won't surprise me if I end up an outlier and keep him relatively high. I think he's certainly got both the talent, the opportunity, and the track record to justify it.

 

[moderated]

Anyone who ranks Hillis anywhere near the top 10 RBs (Wood!!!) needs to do more thorough reading IMO.Shurmer (in Feb), Holmgren (in March), and Heckert (in May) have all said they want a tandem backfield, noting tha Hillis wore down as evidenced by his less than pedestrian 3.8 YPC over the last 8 games of the season. Hardesty is probably the more talented back and they plan to use him liberally. I believe he'll match or exceed Hillis' carries when the season is through.Fellas, you can't just begin with last year's stats and then make minor tweaks to come up with projections.. You MUST UNDERSTAND the roles coaches plan for players in the upcoming season and project accordingly. I've been harping on this for years but of course guys will until the end of time start with Hillis' 270 carries in 2010 and do a minor tweak because, whoa, it's too bold and scary to do something radically different. Well, forget anything close to 270 carries.160-680-6 rushing40-320-2 receiving

hillis lovers not reading the tea leaves are in for a rude awakening.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

2) The Browns only ran 891 offense snaps last year, a ridiculously low number. I have a lot of faith in Shurmur and his new staff, and think the Browns will run the ball more than 413 times. Hardesty can net 120-150 carries easily and Hillis will still get plenty of touches each game to justify a high finish.

The median NFL team last year ran the ball 428 times. So whoopee, the Browns - if they are middle of the pack - will run the ball once more per game. I'm not sure this particular fact helps your case that much.

 

[Jason Wood]

2) The Browns only ran 891 offense snaps last year, a ridiculously low number. I have a lot of faith in Shurmur and his new staff, and think the Browns will run the ball more than 413 times. Hardesty can net 120-150 carries easily and Hillis will still get plenty of touches each game to justify a high finish.

The median NFL team last year ran the ball 428 times. So whoopee, the Browns - if they are middle of the pack - will run the ball once more per game. I'm not sure this particular fact helps your case that much.

Perhaps. The Browns ranked 22nd in attempts last year, and Hillis got 65% of the carries. It's hardly aggressive to think he'll be able to net 60% of the carries this year and for the team to run 20-40 more times. Again, until I see Hardesty healthy and ready to contribute, no one is convincing me we'll see anything close to an RBBC. That's what's AWESOME about fantasy football. If we all agreed about every player, we wouldn't need to bother having drafts.

 

[jeter23]

2) The Browns only ran 891 offense snaps last year, a ridiculously low number. I have a lot of faith in Shurmur and his new staff, and think the Browns will run the ball more than 413 times. Hardesty can net 120-150 carries easily and Hillis will still get plenty of touches each game to justify a high finish.

The median NFL team last year ran the ball 428 times. So whoopee, the Browns - if they are middle of the pack - will run the ball once more per game. I'm not sure this particular fact helps your case that much.

Perhaps. The Browns ranked 22nd in attempts last year, and Hillis got 65% of the carries. It's hardly aggressive to think he'll be able to net 60% of the carries this year and for the team to run 20-40 more times. Again, until I see Hardesty healthy and ready to contribute, no one is convincing me we'll see anything close to an RBBC. That's what's AWESOME about fantasy football. If we all agreed about every player, we wouldn't need to bother having drafts.

65% of 413 is 26860% of 453 (413+your estimated 40 more team rushes) is 271

So, Hillis gets 3 more carries for the year.

 

[Jason Wood]

2) The Browns only ran 891 offense snaps last year, a ridiculously low number. I have a lot of faith in Shurmur and his new staff, and think the Browns will run the ball more than 413 times. Hardesty can net 120-150 carries easily and Hillis will still get plenty of touches each game to justify a high finish.

The median NFL team last year ran the ball 428 times. So whoopee, the Browns - if they are middle of the pack - will run the ball once more per game. I'm not sure this particular fact helps your case that much.

Perhaps. The Browns ranked 22nd in attempts last year, and Hillis got 65% of the carries. It's hardly aggressive to think he'll be able to net 60% of the carries this year and for the team to run 20-40 more times. Again, until I see Hardesty healthy and ready to contribute, no one is convincing me we'll see anything close to an RBBC. That's what's AWESOME about fantasy football. If we all agreed about every player, we wouldn't need to bother having drafts.

65% of 413 is 26860% of 453 (413+your estimated 40 more team rushes) is 271

So, Hillis gets 3 more carries for the year.

Right, and he was RB2 last year.

 

[moderated]

2) The Browns only ran 891 offense snaps last year, a ridiculously low number. I have a lot of faith in Shurmur and his new staff, and think the Browns will run the ball more than 413 times. Hardesty can net 120-150 carries easily and Hillis will still get plenty of touches each game to justify a high finish.

The median NFL team last year ran the ball 428 times. So whoopee, the Browns - if they are middle of the pack - will run the ball once more per game. I'm not sure this particular fact helps your case that much.

Perhaps. The Browns ranked 22nd in attempts last year, and Hillis got 65% of the carries. It's hardly aggressive to think he'll be able to net 60% of the carries this year and for the team to run 20-40 more times. Again, until I see Hardesty healthy and ready to contribute, no one is convincing me we'll see anything close to an RBBC. That's what's AWESOME about fantasy football. If we all agreed about every player, we wouldn't need to bother having drafts.

65% of 413 is 26860% of 453 (413+your estimated 40 more team rushes) is 271

So, Hillis gets 3 more carries for the year.

Right, and he was RB2 last year.

Drop him down to 10 in your rankings, I guarantee you will by the start of the season but just get it over with now.

 

[Jason Wood]

I put very little credence in this "he wore down" argument as a reason to expect a poor followup season. In the article in question, it mentions that Hillis "only averaged 3.8 yards per carry over the second half of the season." So what?

In 2007, Adrian Peterson went from more than 5 yards per carry in the first half to a dismal 3.114 yards per rush over the final 8 games. He followed that up with 1,760 yards (4.8 YPC) and 10 TDs in 2008.

In 2002, Deuce McAllister only averaged 3.584 yards per carry in the second half...clearly he "hit the wall and was overworked", right? He followed that up in with a 1,641-yard (4.7 YPR) 8 TD season in 2003.

In 2004, Clinton Portis struggled to only 3.633 yards per carry in the second half. In 2005, rather than regressing, he put up 1,516 yards rushing (4.3 per carry) and 11 TDs.

In 2007, Portis (again) averaged just 3.644 yards in the second half, and delivered 1,487 yards (4.3 YPR) and 9 TDs in 2008.

In 2002, Edgerrin James saw his second half fall to 3.669 per carry. He followed that up in 2003 with 1,259 yards (4.1) and 11 TDs.

In 2009, Rashard Mendenhall "was gassed" and only churned out 3.768 yards per rush in the second half. He put up 1,273 (3.9) and 13 TDs this year.

In 2008, Frank Gore averaged just 3.837 yards in the second half, he followed that up with 1,120 yards (4.9 YPR!) and 10 TDs in 2009.

In 2009, MJD "lost his explosiveness" and only managed 3.916 yards per rush in the second half. He delivered 1,324 (4.4 YPR) and 5 TDs last year (in less than 16 games).

In 2005, Thomas Jones couldn't muster 4 yards per rush in the 2nd half (3.959) but delivered 1,210 yards (4.1 YPR) and 6 TDs in 2006.

In 2009, Adrian Peterson averaged just 3.993 yards in the second half, but delivered 1,298 and 12 this past year.

 

[Jason Wood]

And to those who ascribe to there being value in dropping an RB down because their 2nd half average falls below 4 yards...are you also going to downgrade:

Thomas Jones (3.0009 in the second half)

Cedric Benson (3.206 in the second half)

Steven Jackson (3.576 in the second half)

Rashard Mendenhall (3.684 in the second half)

Michael Turner (3.782 in the second half)

Ahmad Bradshaw (3.908 in the second half)

Ray Rice (3.987 in the second half)

I'm betting not, at least not as a rule.

 

[moderated]

Almost all those guys were established and had a history of success.

Hillis was a journeyman who has had 1 season of success where he wore down

I suspect he cycles in the offseason and is clean during the season, which explains his lower level of production as his PED advantage fades.

 

[cvnpoka]

I am definitely down on Hillis for a few reasons:

1. He won't sneak up on Baltimore again. Look at game 2 versus Baltimore versus game 1.

2. He doesn't get to play Pittsburgh in week 17 again. It may not appear to be much, but playing 1 game against the top or one of the top rushing defenses during fantasy season instead of 2 really helped.

3. I went through the details in another Hillis thread, but suffice it to say he was the entire RB game for Cleveland last year. I just don't think that % of carries/receptions is sustainable.

4. If McCoy and any RB show any type of improvement at all, then Hillis' share of the pie will go down. Unless Cleveland turns into an offensive juggernaut and improves their total offense, which with one more game against Pitt and a more prepared Baltimore defense may be hard to do.

5. He absolutely wore down and was someone who probably lost a lot of people playoff games. Sure, they didn't draft him high, but after the season he had, he was definitely in people's lineups. He had 43 points in PPR leagues in the last 5 weeks, even with 15 receptions. That is 8ppg in PPR, which is bad. I wouldn't expect him to be firing up a masterful last few weeks if he gets as high a % of touches as in 2010.

That said, I don't think he is a bad play. He will be the RB1 in Cleveland, I just don't see him as RB4 and I would be extremely nervous if I selected him in the 1st round. I wouldn't want him as my #1RB unless he dropped a bit.

he took a vicious open shot to his back on the first series of that game and was clearly limited going forward. i agree with your other points for the most part though. still, for the point 5, he was likely integral in getting those teams to the playoffs so i think its unfair criticism.

hillis is much more talented than ppl give him credit for. he is powerful and agile. he is plenty fast and it is compounded by his decisiveness. he beats teams to the corner many times last year and was a terror in the open field on catches.

anyway, its not complicated, health and hardesty are his obstacles.

 

[cvnpoka]

Anyone who ranks Hillis anywhere near the top 10 RBs (Wood!!!) needs to do more thorough reading IMO.

Shurmer (in Feb), Holmgren (in March), and Heckert (in May) have all said they want a tandem backfield, noting tha Hillis wore down as evidenced by his less than pedestrian 3.8 YPC over the last 8 games of the season. Hardesty is probably the more talented back and they plan to use him liberally. I believe he'll match or exceed Hillis' carries when the season is through.

Fellas, you can't just begin with last year's stats and then make minor tweaks to come up with projections.. You MUST UNDERSTAND the roles coaches plan for players in the upcoming season and project accordingly. I've been harping on this for years but of course guys will until the end of time start with Hillis' 270 carries in 2010 and do a minor tweak because, whoa, it's too bold and scary to do something radically different. Well, forget anything close to 270 carries.

160-680-6 rushing

40-320-2 receiving

so a 2nd round pick with a history of knee problems coming off of his 2nd torn acl is "probably more talented" than a guy with 1650 yfs and 4.4 ypc? guess im not familiar with the success rate of 2nd round picked nfl rbs.

 

[Concept Coop]

I suspect he cycles in the offseason and is clean during the season, which explains his lower level of production as his PED advantage fades.

 

[Couch Potato]

Potato, you've been around long enough to know that there's no pissing in the Shark Pool, and ESPECIALLY in the Spotlights.

Feel free to disagree, but don't turn this into an attack on the other people making projections -- staff or otherwise.

I disagree that's what I was doing, but apologize to those who interpreted it that way and to you since you viewed it as a personal attack. I'll be more careful in future.

 

[Perfect Tommy]

I look at a player's situation. Hillis is and should remain the goal line RB. Most running backs suffer from vultures but Hillis won't have that problem. He is also a fantastic receiver out of the backfield so he won't miss time because his team is trailing or even on 3rd downs. He gets all the good stuff. The team is going to use him as much as they want to each game because he is useful in every game situation. Cleveland only scored 26 offensive TDs last year, well below the NFL average, and Hillis got 13 of them. They rate to score more than that this year just by regression to the mean. They have a young QB and will probably continue to feature the run, and won't be throwing the ball from the 1-yard line very often. The offensive line is built to run-block. The Browns also have an decent schedule this year. He also split time the first two games, depressing his gaudy stats. The only danger for him is possible injury or Hardesty or somebody else taking too many yards from him. Most RBs have more impressive teammates to worry about competing with than he does. Bad things might happen and they might not, but Hillis has one of the best situations in the NFL. I put him in the RB tier behind the top 3.

 

[gianmarco]

Almost all those guys were established and had a history of success.

Hillis was a journeyman who has had 1 season of success where he wore down

I suspect he cycles in the offseason and is clean during the season, which explains his lower level of production as his PED advantage fades.

Journeyman? The guy is only 24 years old and was on one previous team before he was traded? He is far from a journeyman.Secondly, this bit about him "wearing down". You realize he closed the season in his last 2 games against Pitt (#1 vs. the run) and Baltimore (#5 vs. the run). Throw in another game vs. Miami (#7 vs the run) and the guy faced 3 top run defenses in his last 5 games.

It's POSSIBLE he wore down. It's also very possible he just had a tough stretch of games. Or a combination of both. Factor in the above stats that JW thew in about other RBs doing the same (which seems to be the norm), and I think this idea he "wore down" is completely overblown and not a reason to downgrade him whatsoever.

 

[djmich]

Almost all those guys were established and had a history of success.

Hillis was a journeyman who has had 1 season of success where he wore down

I suspect he cycles in the offseason and is clean during the season, which explains his lower level of production as his PED advantage fades.

Journeyman? The guy is only 24 years old and was on one previous team before he was traded? He is far from a journeyman.Secondly, this bit about him "wearing down". You realize he closed the season in his last 2 games against Pitt (#1 vs. the run) and Baltimore (#5 vs. the run). Throw in another game vs. Miami (#7 vs the run) and the guy faced 3 top run defenses in his last 5 games.

It's POSSIBLE he wore down. It's also very possible he just had a tough stretch of games. Or a combination of both. Factor in the above stats that JW thew in about other RBs doing the same (which seems to be the norm), and I think this idea he "wore down" is completely overblown and not a reason to downgrade him whatsoever.

Agree he faced tough defenses. I also do believe that he wore down and was nicked up (obviously related). Combine all three and it led to not so great games. What I am trying to determine is how this is necessarily all bad.What I read from that is that the guys great performances were not flukes, and there were a number of mitigating circumstances for the poor performances.

Enter Hardesty, who one would hope helps to alleviate Hillis wearing down. Everyone looks at Hardesty as a threat...unless he wins the job I think he helps Hillis over the long haul.

As was mentioned Hillis is the GL back, and a great 3rd down back. Even when he played less in the beginning of the season he was valuable because of those two traits. If he retains the bulk of those two duties and splits the rest with Hardesty I think that is a recipe for success.

225 Carries - 1,100 Yards - 10 tds

65 Receptions - 600 Yards - 4 tds

 

[shader]

I hate projecting injuries. That's a difficult task.

Hillis' career will be short. He won't be around in 5 years as a punisher.

But to think in one season with only 270 carries that he is now "worn down" is foolish, imo.

I personally don't think Hardesty brings anything to the table that Hillis doesn't have. Hardesty's best attribute was his desire and determination. He's not a physical speciman by any means.

So I expect Hillis to begin the season as the main bellcow. As Hardesty gets healthy, maybe he'll win his wire into 40% of the runs, we'll see. Maybe Hardesty will allow Hillis to be fresh come playoff time.

Overall, I expect a similar year from Hillis this year. He might have a few less yards and catches, but I also expect a few more TD's.

260 carries, 1100 yards, 40 catches, 300 yards, 15 td's.

Not a guy I want to pin my hopes to in dynasty, but in 2011 I see no reason for a dropoff.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Most of Hillis panache from a year ago was predicated on the double digit scores and the crazy amount of receptions. I don't see him cracking the plane on double digit TDs or 60 catches again. Hardesy is going to poach some of the carries there if he's healthy:

200 carries, 800 yards, 6 TDs

40-45 catches, 300-350 yards, 1 TD

RB25-30

Honestly, I could be convinced that these projections are optimistic. Hillis shrieks "Natrone Mean/Marion Butts/Christian Okoye" to me. Came out of nowhere to have a great fantasy season once, but pretty much never sniffed that production again. He could still be a useful fantasy running back, as those guys were at different points in time, but the chances of Hillis being a top 10, let alone top 5, fantasy back again are pretty slim. We really have no idea how much of the rushing pie the team will give to a healthy Hardesty. I'll be letting other owners pay the freight on Hillis' big 2010 in this year's drafts.

 

[gianmarco]

The thing I think people don't realize with Hillis is, even if he does lose the majority of the carries (which I don't think he will), he will DEFINITELY be in down at the goal line and should approach double digit TDs again as a result. This guy was incredibly efficient down there this past year.

Below is a list of stats by RBs from the opponents 10 yard line or closer:

NAME POS YR RSH RSHYD YD/RSH FD RSHTD FA1 Arian Foster rb 2010 42 82 1.9524 17 13 93.60002 Mendenhall rb 2010 29 37 1.2759 11 11 70.80003 Michael Turner rb 2010 44 65 1.4773 14 11 72.50004 Mike Tolbert rb 2010 28 57 2.0357 12 11 71.70005 Adrian Peterson rb 2010 26 47 1.8077 11 10 65.60006 Peyton Hillis rb 2010 19 59 3.1053 9 9 60.50007 Green-Ellis rb 2010 25 49 1.9600 9 9 59.20008 Michael Bush rb 2010 23 48 2.0870 9 7 46.80009 Ahmad Bradshaw rb 2010 24 78 3.2500 10 7 50.000010 Chris Johnson rb 2010 24 28 1.1667 6 6 38.800011 Cedric Benson rb 2010 32 42 1.3125 9 6 46.900012 Javarris James rb 2010 13 30 2.3077 6 6 39.000013 Brandon Jacobs rb 2010 16 26 1.6250 7 6 38.600014 Thomas Jones rb 2010 25 46 1.8400 6 5 34.600015 Marshawn Lynch rb 2010 21 4 0.1905 5 5 30.400016 Knowshon Moreno rb 2010 16 23 1.4375 6 5 39.000017 Ray Rice rb 2010 16 39 2.4375 7 5 34.400018 Maurice Morris rb 2010 7 29 4.1429 5 5 33.500019 Willis McGahee rb 2010 16 31 1.9375 7 4 27.100020 Chris Ivory rb 2010 16 20 1.2500 5 4 26.000021 Tomlinson rb 2010 12 32 2.6667 4 4 27.000022 Brian Westbrook rb 2010 9 29 3.2222 5 4 27.400023 Jamaal Charles rb 2010 13 45 3.4615 4 4 41.500024 Fred Jackson rb 2010 12 29 2.4167 4 4 27.200025 Darren McFadden rb 2010 11 34 3.0909 4 4 34.100026 John Kuhn rb 2010 13 22 1.6923 6 4 39.700027 Jones-Drew rb 2010 26 49 1.8846 8 4 36.000028 Ronnie Brown rb 2010 11 11 1.0000 4 4 25.700029 Chester Taylor rb 2010 12 17 1.4167 3 3 19.700030 Leg. Blount rb 2010 12 16 1.3333 3 3 19.600031 Steven Jackson rb 2010 24 22 0.9167 4 3 20.200032 Marion Barber rb 2010 19 14 0.7368 4 3 19.400033 Jahvid Best rb 2010 8 24 3.0000 4 3 20.300034 Tim Hightower rb 2010 8 19 2.3750 3 3 20.800035 Ryan Torain rb 2010 14 15 1.0714 3 3 26.400036 Frank Gore rb 2010 14 26 1.8571 4 3 26.8000
Things of notice:

--He scored more than 0.5 TDs/carry, or put another way, he scored every two times he touched the ball. Only Jacobs, Maurice Morris, and Javarris James (surprising) were close to that. Most other RBs weren't even half as efficient.

--His YPC down at the goalline is phenomenal. Only a handful of RBs were as good or better including Charles, McFadden, Bradshaw, MoMo, and Westbrook. Hillis is the only bruising RB out of those and he was usually the only option. It makes what he did that more impressive.

--He only had 19 carries inside the 10 (scoring on 9 of those). This is more a function of the Browns offense not even getting inside the 10. If those chances go up, so will Hillis's opportunity down there as well as his TD totals. With the additions they are making on offense and the addition of Shurmur, I see that as a real possibility.

You've got a 240lb RB who catches the ball as well as any RB in the league that is THE goalline option and likely 3rd down RB. Even if he gets the lesser portion of the carries, you're looking at an almost certain double digit TD season again along with ~40 catches. If he can get just 1000 TOTAL yards (rushing/receiving), you're looking at a 200 pt season. He doesn't need to be the main ball carrier for that. Anything more is gravy.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

2) The Browns only ran 891 offense snaps last year, a ridiculously low number. I have a lot of faith in Shurmur and his new staff, and think the Browns will run the ball more than 413 times. Hardesty can net 120-150 carries easily and Hillis will still get plenty of touches each game to justify a high finish.

The median NFL team last year ran the ball 428 times. So whoopee, the Browns - if they are middle of the pack - will run the ball once more per game. I'm not sure this particular fact helps your case that much.

Perhaps. The Browns ranked 22nd in attempts last year, and Hillis got 65% of the carries. It's hardly aggressive to think he'll be able to net 60% of the carries this year and for the team to run 20-40 more times. Again, until I see Hardesty healthy and ready to contribute, no one is convincing me we'll see anything close to an RBBC. That's what's AWESOME about fantasy football. If we all agreed about every player, we wouldn't need to bother having drafts.

65% of 413 is 26860% of 453 (413+your estimated 40 more team rushes) is 271

So, Hillis gets 3 more carries for the year.

Right, and he was RB2 last year.

Wait, I thought part of your argument was that the Browns would run the ball more next year? So those 3 carries make all the difference?Please, can we just have some consistent, sound logic?

 

[LHUCKS]

Wait, I thought part of your argument was that the Browns would run the ball more next year? So those 3 carries make all the difference?Please, can we just have some consistent, sound logic?

Is this what you do?Run around from thread to thread with negativity?Stay Classy

 

[stbugs]

I am definitely down on Hillis for a few reasons:

1. He won't sneak up on Baltimore again. Look at game 2 versus Baltimore versus game 1.

2. He doesn't get to play Pittsburgh in week 17 again. It may not appear to be much, but playing 1 game against the top or one of the top rushing defenses during fantasy season instead of 2 really helped.

3. I went through the details in another Hillis thread, but suffice it to say he was the entire RB game for Cleveland last year. I just don't think that % of carries/receptions is sustainable.

4. If McCoy and any RB show any type of improvement at all, then Hillis' share of the pie will go down. Unless Cleveland turns into an offensive juggernaut and improves their total offense, which with one more game against Pitt and a more prepared Baltimore defense may be hard to do.

5. He absolutely wore down and was someone who probably lost a lot of people playoff games. Sure, they didn't draft him high, but after the season he had, he was definitely in people's lineups. He had 43 points in PPR leagues in the last 5 weeks, even with 15 receptions. That is 8ppg in PPR, which is bad. I wouldn't expect him to be firing up a masterful last few weeks if he gets as high a % of touches as in 2010.

That said, I don't think he is a bad play. He will be the RB1 in Cleveland, I just don't see him as RB4 and I would be extremely nervous if I selected him in the 1st round. I wouldn't want him as my #1RB unless he dropped a bit.

Actually he does

I was going on memory and I think when I wrote my post a while back the schedules for 2011 weren't out yet, just the opponents.

That said, you are correct, he gets Pitt in week 17, so for people playing in week 17 championships, that sucks. For the rest of FF world, I am not a fan of his playoff schedule:

Week 13: Baltimore

Week 14: At Pittsburgh

Week 15: At Arizona

Week 16: At Baltimore

Week 17: Pittsburgh

I would sell high. Look at his last 5 weeks including only 1 game against Pitt and Baltimore (2011 last 5 has 4 against those 2):

Week 13: @ Miami rushing - 57 yds 0 TDs receiving - 7 rec 22 yds 0 TDs

Week 14: @ Buffalo rushing - 108 yds 0 TDs (1 FL) receiving - 4 rec 10 yds 0 TDs

Week 15: @ Cincy rushing - 59 yds 0 TDs receiving - 2 rec 23 yds 0 TDs

Week 16: Baltimore rushing - 35 yds 0 TDs receiving - 1 rec 5 yds 0 TDs

Week 17: Pittsburgh rushing - 13 yds 0 TDs receiving - 1 rec 3 yds 0 TDs

I would not want Hillis on my team as a 1st or 2nd round pick with the 2011 playoff schedule. Even if he helps you get there, he most likely will have bad games when you need him.

 

[moderated]

That said, you are correct, he gets Pitt in week 17, so for people playing in week 17 championships, that sucks. For the rest of FF world, I am not a fan of his playoff schedule:Week 13: BaltimoreWeek 14: At PittsburghWeek 15: At ArizonaWeek 16: At BaltimoreWeek 17: Pittsburgh.

That is absolute death row for a FF playoff schedule.He's basically unstartable in weeks 14 and 16, not only playing top defenses but doing it on the road as well.Based on that schedule alone he isn't worth a top 24 pick if he can't be used when it matters.

 

[cvnpoka]

I would sell high. Look at his last 5 weeks including only 1 game against Pitt and Baltimore (2011 last 5 has 4 against those 2):

again, he was injured very early in the baltimore game and clearly limited the rest of that game and the next week.

Browns running back Peyton Hillis sat out Wednesday's practice with the rib injury suffered on the hit by Baltimore's Ed Reed and might have to wear some kind of a protective jacket against the Steelers.

http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2010/12/cleveland_browns_peyton_hillis_3.htmlon the other hand, earlier in the season he obliterated baltimore with 180 yfs and a td. and had a respectable 100 yfs vs pitt. doesnt really matter anyway, bc only a select few are pegged to start versus those defenses and even then their owners hate doing so. i can see the argument for downgrading a player due to playoff matchups and hillis would fit that profile for those with 14-16 week playoffs. but those wtih 15/16 week playoffs shouldnt worry too much.

 

[RushHour]

I look at a player's situation. Hillis is and should remain the goal line RB. Most running backs suffer from vultures but Hillis won't have that problem. He is also a fantastic receiver out of the backfield so he won't miss time because his team is trailing or even on 3rd downs. He gets all the good stuff. The team is going to use him as much as they want to each game because he is useful in every game situation. Cleveland only scored 26 offensive TDs last year, well below the NFL average, and Hillis got 13 of them. They rate to score more than that this year just by regression to the mean. They have a young QB and will probably continue to feature the run, and won't be throwing the ball from the 1-yard line very often. The offensive line is built to run-block. The Browns also have an decent schedule this year. He also split time the first two games, depressing his gaudy stats. The only danger for him is possible injury or Hardesty or somebody else taking too many yards from him. Most RBs have more impressive teammates to worry about competing with than he does. Bad things might happen and they might not, but Hillis has one of the best situations in the NFL. I put him in the RB tier behind the top 3.

I pretty much agree with this assessment. A lot of people act like Hillis was just a below-average talent, hack RB who happened to fall into an awesome situation last year. Things definitely went his way, but the guy has plenty of talent and he was pretty much Cleveland's ENTIRE offense last season. Even if he loses a few snaps here or there, he's still going to be a major focal point, especially at the goal line, which is key for RBs as we know. Usually if a player has a great season, we don't expect them to have a diminished role in the next - rather, we expect them to build on that success. Why should it be different for Hillis? Because Hardesty is there? I get that Hardesty was a high draft pick and they probably wanted him to be the guy going into last season, but you can't just ignore what Hillis did last year. He was one of the best RBs in the league, in real life and fantasy, and he's earned the right to have a major role going forward. I would draft him with confidence.

 

[sihaokills]

Hillis lacks elite athleticism and talent so he'll likely be one of the most overvalued RBs in 2011 as owners will be expecting a repeat performance of 2010. His 4.4 YPC was mostly the result of pure will and determination but players like that don't last in the NFL. Do yourself a favor and let your draftmates reach on Hillis in the second round.850 yards rushing300 yards receiving8 TDsHillis was a nice story, but NFL defenses are too athletic for a RB of his pedestrian abilities. Further his hard running style makes it likely he'll miss several games.

He is kind of atheletic for his power and size. Hillis hurdles, trucks, and even cathches one handed

 

[Football Jones]

Yeah, I get a kick out of people calling Hillis a mediocre athlete. Humans like him don't come around very often. Look at the guy, LOL. He's a freak of nature. Guys that big & strong aren't supposed to have incredible feet or hands like glue. Hillis has the quickness of a much smaller player, but hits you like a Mack truck & is tough to bring down.

And no, he's not on the juice (IMO). Not his style. Hillis was blessed with incredible genetics & has worked his butt off.

 

[flooredyas]

Just acquired him for Zach Miller (Oakland) and pick #22 in our rookie draft, so I feel that he will continue to be a solid RB

270 carries/1134 yds

60 rec/480 yds

12 td's

Hardesy will get his work-as a change of pace/fill in player. Hillis will be the guy who produces

Damn the Madden cover, not a believer.

 

[stbugs]

I would sell high. Look at his last 5 weeks including only 1 game against Pitt and Baltimore (2011 last 5 has 4 against those 2):

again, he was injured very early in the baltimore game and clearly limited the rest of that game and the next week.

Browns running back Peyton Hillis sat out Wednesday's practice with the rib injury suffered on the hit by Baltimore's Ed Reed and might have to wear some kind of a protective jacket against the Steelers.

http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2010/12/cleveland_browns_peyton_hillis_3.htmlon the other hand, earlier in the season he obliterated baltimore with 180 yfs and a td. and had a respectable 100 yfs vs pitt. doesnt really matter anyway, bc only a select few are pegged to start versus those defenses and even then their owners hate doing so. i can see the argument for downgrading a player due to playoff matchups and hillis would fit that profile for those with 14-16 week playoffs. but those wtih 15/16 week playoffs shouldnt worry too much.

Well, Hillis played in the 3rd and 4th quarters and I am not sure how limited he was since his longest run of the day was in the 3rd quarter. It wasn't a leg injury limiting his running ability, it was an injury from a hard hit, which happens a lot to running backs. I also don't think the Steelers and Ravens will take it easy on him this year.He only had 41 yards rushing against the Steelers in the first game. I tend to think the 180 yards against the Ravens was a surprise and I wouldn't bet on it happening again. In 2010, he had 8 carries week 1 and 9 carries week 2 before getting 22 against the Ravens. In his first 3 games against his division, he had 15 receptions and 287 yards rushing and in the second meetings he had 4 receptions and 107 yards rushing.I don't like his playoff schedule at all. I would bet on his results being more like the other 3 games than the one early game against Baltimore.

 

[cvnpoka]

ya obv 180 yards against the ravens was a "surprise" and even a fluke outlier. that was like the greatest rushing game against the ravens in the last 10 yrs (hyperbole but mebbe correct?) and you are trying to paint his performance as a negative.

and no, it wasnt a "leg injury" but lol at that injury happening to "a lot of running backs." he wore a flack jacket in the final meaningless game. i dont see many rbs playing thru such severe rib injuries let alone in a useless game vs a brutal pitt d.

my point in mentioning the context of his performance was to address the posters using those games as evidence that he wasnt talented or capable. even if he was fully healthy he still put up relatively great fantasy points vs those defenses on the whole.

if you think that playing baltimore and pittsburgh 3 times a year, including in high leverage playoff games, is too much of a concession for hillis to be viable at his projected adp then i may agree when i run the numbers. if you want to cherrypick 3 of his 4 games (and leave out his best game) vs the best run defenses of this era to show that he isnt talented enough to roster in fantasy football then i will take exception.

 

[stbugs]

ya obv 180 yards against the ravens was a "surprise" and even a fluke outlier. that was like the greatest rushing game against the ravens in the last 10 yrs (hyperbole but mebbe correct?) and you are trying to paint his performance as a negative.and no, it wasnt a "leg injury" but lol at that injury happening to "a lot of running backs." he wore a flack jacket in the final meaningless game. i dont see many rbs playing thru such severe rib injuries let alone in a useless game vs a brutal pitt d. my point in mentioning the context of his performance was to address the posters using those games as evidence that he wasnt talented or capable. even if he was fully healthy he still put up relatively great fantasy points vs those defenses on the whole. if you think that playing baltimore and pittsburgh 3 times a year, including in high leverage playoff games, is too much of a concession for hillis to be viable at his projected adp then i may agree when i run the numbers. if you want to cherrypick 3 of his 4 games (and leave out his best game) vs the best run defenses of this era to show that he isnt talented enough to roster in fantasy football then i will take exception.

I was citing why I thought his ADP was too high and very risky, especially if you consider his playoff schedule. I said in my first post that he is still valuable. Any RB that is extremely likely to receive the lion's share of RB touches is a valuable asset. I just don't think his 2011 will be better than 2010 and his playoff schedule looks like a killer.If the injury was so severe, why was he still playing in the 3rd and 4th quarter and in the next meaningless game? That makes zero sense. If he could play through it and play the next week when the Browns could have easily rested him with no repercussions, then I wouldn't call it severe. Also, please re-read what I wrote, I said hard hits happen a lot to RBs.I still think the Baltimore game was a surprise and I remember discussing it either with friends in my FF league or in a thread here that I didn't expect him to repeat his success in game 2 vs. Balt. and he didn't. I didn't turn that into a negative, I just didn't feel that it was a good predictor for his 2011 success against Baltimore. I would expect his second game against Baltimore to be a lot closer to his results this year than the first game.If we actually have a 2011 season, I will definitely be watching his end of the year results as I sure as heck wouldn't want him as my first round pick playing Baltimore and Pitt 3/4 times in 4/5 weeks, depending on your FF championship week. Do you think he won't be "dinged" up at that point?