Peyton Manning - Dynasty Value? (1 Viewer)

[runner06]

Peyton Manning has really emerged as the premiere player in redraft this leagues. He is outscoring most other QB on a PPG basis by a ridiculous amount. Granted, his first game really screws things but what he has done since then is still really impressive.

I would think his current average dynasty ranking on FBG (64) is greatly understated. From a VBD standpoint, I don't see how he doesn't hold comparable dynasty value to guys like Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, etc i.e. a dynasty 2nd round value instead of 6th round like his ranking suggests.

Thoughts?

What has he gone for your league (only in-season trades)?

Of course, there is risk involved with him this year. There's a good chance that the Broncos could have the AFC locked up by week 14 and Manning may not be playing complete games during fantasy playoff time.

The team that owns him in my league is 4-1 and 3rd in overall points. I floated a Cam Newton for Peyton Manning flip to him (his other QB is Tony Romo) but he was a definite hold for the other owner.

 

[DoubleG]

I think if you're in "win now" mode - he has huge value. Right now he is giving the kind of "Gates in his prime" advantage. His X-value is extremely high, at a position that is one of the most important in many leagues.

In some ways, if you can only start 1 QB he is even more valuable, as there is really no way to "make up" points, except to be dominant across multiple other positions. In 2 QB leagues, a guy could have 2 very good QBs to mitigate the damage.

I would think your Cam offer would have to include quite a bit more. If I'm the 3-1 team with him, I aint giving him up easy - championship banners fly forever, and he will easily win some teams one this season.

 

[runner06]

I think if you're in "win now" mode - he has huge value. Right now he is giving the kind of "Gates in his prime" advantage. His X-value is extremely high, at a position that is one of the most important in many leagues.

In some ways, if you can only start 1 QB he is even more valuable, as there is really no way to "make up" points, except to be dominant across multiple other positions. In 2 QB leagues, a guy could have 2 very good QBs to mitigate the damage.

I would think your Cam offer would have to include quite a bit more. If I'm the 3-1 team with him, I aint giving him up easy - championship banners fly forever, and he will easily win some teams one this season.

Yeah, agreed.

I don't want this to be about my team or my offer but this is where I'm at with Peyton Manning as well.

Curious to see how many others share the same opinion.

Unless your dynasty league is in its first year, there are going to be multiple "win now" teams in every league. I don't see how his base value shouldn't be in the top 25 overall dynasty players.

With such a big difference between what I think his value should be and what the FBG average dynasty rankings has him at, I figured it was worth creating a thread about his dynasty value.

I think if you're a rebuilding team, you should try to extract that kind of value in any trade you make. I think selling him at a 4th-6th round startup dynasty value would be a huge mistake. Thoughts?

 

[cstu]

He was traded in one of my leagues for a 2014 1st that would be 1.6 right now but could slip into playoffs.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

It's going to be hard to get fair value for him IMO. First you need to find a win now team that has a void at QB. Second, Romo, Rivers, Cutler, Alex Smith are "good enough to win with" QB1 types who can probably be easily acquired without giving up a core player. Manning is obviously the top guy this year by a ton, but most owners aren't going to cough up 2nd / 3rd round startup value for him given the likely plethora of much cheaper options available.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

I think if you're in "win now" mode - he has huge value. Right now he is giving the kind of "Gates in his prime" advantage. His X-value is extremely high, at a position that is one of the most important in many leagues.

Right now Peyton's averaging 14 VBD per game. Per game! That's obviously unsustainable, but even if he's half that valuable the rest of this year and next, that'd be 147 VBD between now and the end of '14. Now, I traditionally front-weight my assessments of dynasty value more than most people, but by any reasonable weighting you use, I have a hard time thinking how that would land him behind a reasonable career weighting of more than maybe 30 other players (of course, I haven't done the math to validate this).

You don't necessarily have to be in "win now" mode to like Peyton's value. Or, put another way, unless your team is in full rebuild with no possibility of making the playoffs this year and next, Manning offers significant value even if he never takes another snap after the 2014 season. I'd gladly "overpay" by dynasty standards (top 30 value) to grab him now if I had a mediocre QB on an otherwise contending team. For obvious reasons, playoff games are often tight affairs, and even 7 extra points of VBD each week is worth a ton in terms of your overall odds to win it all.

 

[kjtocool]

I actually just made a big trade where I dealt Manning in a competitive 12 team dynasty. Trade was:

Manning

Decker

Tony Gonzalez

Vincent Brown

BenJarvus Green Ellis

2015 2nd rounder

for

Aaron Rodgers

Montee Ball

Zach Ertz

2014 2nd rounder

2015 1st rounder

My team, the one trading Manning, is currently 2-3, but is the highest scoring team in the league. I have Gronk coming back this week. I have Percy Harvin coming back soonish. I have DeSean, Roddy White, Nicks, and Jerome Simpson also available as WRs. The team getting Manning is 1-4, but believes they can contend this year and next, felt Manning was an upgrade. They are in love with Tannehill, and view him as the QB of the extended future. Outside of Decker, most of the remaining players were desired to help fill bye week holes.

 

[Norman Paperman]

He was traded in one of my leagues for a 2014 1st that would be 1.6 right now but could slip into playoffs.

I'm in a 16-team league, and would trade a 2104 and 2015 1st round pick for him.

The problem is any team with Manning is probably doing pretty well - why would they trade - absent a very good back-up, and a hole that can be filled this year.

 

[Spin]

Team in rebuild (1-4) dealt Manning (2year contract) for RG3 (11 year contract) straight up to the already league favorite.

Can start 2 qb and team receiving Manning now starts Arod/Manning.

 

[FUBAR]

He was traded in one of my leagues for a 2014 1st that would be 1.6 right now but could slip into playoffs.

I'm in a 16-team league, and would trade a 2104 and 2015 1st round pick for him.

The problem is any team with Manning is probably doing pretty well - why would they trade - absent a very good back-up, and a hole that can be filled this year.

I have Peyton in two leagues, he's basically untradeable IMO. I'd need a king's ransom and unlikely to get it. Even though I'm working a rebuild in one, he's keeping me in the playoffs while I worry about getting younger elsewhere. In the other, he's basically the sole reason I'm undefeated.

CDL is right; to trade him requires a team that in win-now and thinks Peyton going forward is that much better than their current top QB. Not too many of the top 12 have really disappointed (maybe Cam and Stafford?) so your partners are limited.

 

[FUBAR]

Team in rebuild (1-4) dealt Manning (2year contract) for RG3 (11 year contract) straight up to the already league favorite.

Can start 2 qb and team receiving Manning now starts Arod/Manning.

That's the kind of deal that makes sense.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

He was traded in one of my leagues for a 2014 1st that would be 1.6 right now but could slip into playoffs.

I'm in a 16-team league, and would trade a 2104 and 2015 1st round pick for him.

The problem is any team with Manning is probably doing pretty well - why would they trade - absent a very good back-up, and a hole that can be filled this year.

Because any owner taking the long view is probably going to think, "I could play in this league for another 50 years and never again get this kind of value for a 37-year-old QB who's on a completely unsustainable scoring pace to start the season."

I know a lot of dynasty owners who bought low on Manning specifically to pair him with a guy like Luck, Cam, or Wilson. If I'm in that situation and can leverage my "not QB of the future" into a couple of future studs or high draft picks after already getting four or five wins out of him? I'd have to think long and hard about turning that down.

 

[matttyl]

He was traded for Luck in a 10 team dynasty league I'm in. Straight up, no chaser. Both teams were about even in terms being "middle of the road" teams - either could make or miss playoffs still.

 

[Flying Elvis]

I engaged several owners in an attempt to acquire a top QB prior to the season just after the 53 man cut down. The best deal for me was on Manning and I gave up Jay Cutler, Antonio Brown, and my 2014 1st round selection. The team that gave him up was full of older players and needed youth & picks. My team was a QB away from serious contention for the title for several years.

I felt that was a bit much but, compared to the deals people were looking for on QBs like Brady & Rodgers, it was a solid deal. I expected a great season but this has been outrageous.

I wouldn't sell him for any less than two 1st round picks right now and even then I'd probably pass and play for the title(s). This is a deep IDP dynasty (12 team 55 man roster) with zero QB waiver wire depth.

 

[Concept Coop]

Based on these prices, I'd be selling. Give me Romo/Brady + Mid-first and I'm a happy camper.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Based on these prices, I'd be selling. Give me Romo/Brady + Mid-first and I'm a happy camper.

Brady? Really? You're not picking up much (if any) shelf life and giving up a ton of production. Brady will certainly bounce back, and Manning will certainly cool down, but they won't equalize enough to make it worth the swap for a random 1st IMO.

 

[Concept Coop]

Based on these prices, I'd be selling. Give me Romo/Brady + Mid-first and I'm a happy camper.

Brady? Really? You're not picking up much (if any) shelf life and giving up a ton of production. Brady will certainly bounce back, and Manning will certainly cool down, but they won't equalize enough to make it worth the swap for a random 1st IMO.

A mid first is usually a Le'Veon Bell/Eddie Lacy type prospect - and honestly, I wouldn't trade either of them for Manning. I'm not paying for past production. He's likely the QB1 the rest of the way, but he's not going to keep lapping the competition. He won't be throwing for 80 TDs, or whatever he's on pace for.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Based on these prices, I'd be selling. Give me Romo/Brady + Mid-first and I'm a happy camper.

Brady? Really? You're not picking up much (if any) shelf life and giving up a ton of production. Brady will certainly bounce back, and Manning will certainly cool down, but they won't equalize enough to make it worth the swap for a random 1st IMO.

A mid first is usually a Le'Veon Bell/Eddie Lacy type prospect - and honestly, I wouldn't trade either of them for Manning. I'm not paying for past production. He's likely the QB1 the rest of the way, but he's not going to keep lapping the competition. He won't be throwing for 80 TDs, or whatever he's on pace for.

Fully agree with you on Manning -- I'd set the over / under at 50 for this year. And close to that next year. And likely 2015 as well, as that's when he'll be able to retire after having broken every meaningful career passing mark, which IMO matters to him. Obviously not a lock, but looks likely from where I'm sitting. Brady over that same span? Not what he's done thus far this year, certainly. But he's not super likely to be pushing 40 TDs barring a huge influx of receiving talent far beyond just getting Gronk back, IMO.

Mid 1st level prospects -- meh. More than half of those guys end up as garbage. Give me the sure meaningful advantage every day of the week.

 

[solorca]

His value is limited to teams that legitimately think they can compete for a title this season. I'd say in the next 2-3 weeks, you'll start to se the teams selling him off if they realize that they are out of the playoff race.

I play in a large number of dynasty leagues (10) and haven't seen him traded yet. In the one league I own him, I am sitting at 4-1 with a good shot of competing for a title, so he's worth significantly more to me than he would be in trade. I wouldn't trade him for a 1st rounder, but if there were different circumstances, I'd do it.

An interesting note - DLF is doing a mock start-up today and Manning just went at 1.07 overall. Personally, I think that's way too high given his age...but it makes for an interesting discussion at least.

 

[Concept Coop]

Mid 1st level prospects -- meh. More than half of those guys end up as garbage. Give me the sure meaningful advantage every day of the week.

Plenty bust, but even the busts have trade value during their path to becoming worthless. And plenty hit, too.

I'd personally rather gamble and take a chance on a potential difference maker at RB or WR - rather than giving up so much for Manning. If I'm paying that price - I'm adding more to get ARod, Luck, RG3, Newton, etc, or less for Brady, Romo, Stafford, etc.

 

[CowboysHomer]

Howabout for a dynasty with no draft pick trades allowed?

RG3 and Foster for Peyton and Reggie Wayne in a league I'm in (PPR).

 

[Concept Coop]

Howabout for a dynasty with no draft pick trades allowed?

RG3 and Foster for Peyton and Reggie Wayne in a league I'm in (PPR).

RG3 > Foster> Peyton > Wayne: IMO

 

[FUBAR]

Mid 1st level prospects -- meh. More than half of those guys end up as garbage. Give me the sure meaningful advantage every day of the week.

Plenty bust, but even the busts have trade value during their path to becoming worthless. And plenty hit, too.

I'd personally rather gamble and take a chance on a potential difference maker at RB or WR - rather than giving up so much for Manning. If I'm paying that price - I'm adding more to get ARod, Luck, RG3, Newton, etc, or less for Brady, Romo, Stafford, etc.

Give me three years of elite production. I'd trade for luck, and was turned down when i asked for RG3 and a pick (was told he would rather have rg3 than Manning - honestly can't blame him) and nobody else had seemed interested, well at least from those teams that have what I'd want.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Was lucky enough to move Kaep for Manning, Marlon Brown, and a 2nd.

 

[dewmass]

Was offered him for Romo/Blackmon in a team where I have Cam and Romo, 4-1 and defending champion. More than I am willing to go so passed

 

[MattFancy]

I'm in a weird situation with him in one league. I'm 3-2 and really think I'm a contender this year, but my team has some older pieces like Manning, Andre Johnson, and Ray Rice. I want to get younger, but I also don't want to give away the season. I'm #2 right now, so it's tough. I want to get what I can for Manning while he's hot, but I also don't want to blow a chance at a title.

 

[Concept Coop]

I'm pretty shocked by his value, based on this forum.

If you were early - due to foresight or luck - congrats. If you missed out - you missed the boat. Paying for past points isn't going to help your dynasty team. Buying a 37 YO QB at an inflated market value is a bad move.

Add to Manning to get Rodgers, Luck, Newton, Brees, or RG3. Get a solid part in addition to Brady, Romo, or Stafford. Or enjoy the ride. Just don't expect his future points over replacement to hold; they won't. And once it dips and Manning is simply top 5, rather than #1 by a TD a game - you're stuck holding the bag, as his market value will dry up very fast. We knew he was a top 3 redraft QB this year - and he was still the 11th QB drafted by ADP (dynasty). His value can drop back to that very fast.

 

[kutta]

I traded Gonzo, Rivers, and pick rookie pick 1.07 (turned into Eddie Lacy) for Manning and rookie pick 3.01 (turned into Vereen) during the summer. I am currently 5-0 and the points leader.

I don't know if there is much I would take for Manning right now. I think dynasty people get stuck in their thinking that they have to always "get younger." I don't like to think that way. I am perfectly happy having a roster full of older, productive players with a few youngsters sprinkled in. I will happily trade my draft picks for guys like Brees, Manning, Colston, Fitz, Andre, etc. There will always be older, very good guys that can be had for draft picks. I have built a very strong team doing this, and my team could win the championship for the next couple years. Here is my starting lineup:

Manning

AP

Reggie Bush

Colston

Jordy

Steve Smith (or D. Moore)

Gates

k

d

I also have Crabtree, V. Brown, Tannehill, and Vereen as some of my young guys.

My point is that almost any offer for Manning is going to make my team worse this year and next year. Who knows what is going to happen after that? I will continue to trade draft picks for guys getting a little older and just plug them in when AP, Smith, and Colston decline. I will grab young guys here and there to fill in the gaps. But I sure as heck am not going to give up a potential championship over the next couple years by trading Manning just because I want to "get younger."

 

[FUBAR]

He was traded in one of my leagues for a 2014 1st that would be 1.6 right now but could slip into playoffs.

I'm in a 16-team league, and would trade a 2104 and 2015 1st round pick for him.The problem is any team with Manning is probably doing pretty well - why would they trade - absent a very good back-up, and a hole that can be filled this year.

I have Peyton in two leagues, he's basically untradeable IMO. I'd need a king's ransom and unlikely to get it. Even though I'm working a rebuild in one, he's keeping me in the playoffs while I worry about getting younger elsewhere. In the other, he's basically the sole reason I'm undefeated.

CDL is right; to trade him requires a team that in win-now and thinks Peyton going forward is that much better than their current top QB. Not too many of the top 12 have really disappointed (maybe Cam and Stafford?) so your partners are limited.

Ok, nobody is untradeable. Dealt Peyton essentially for Cobb and Tannehill.