It's been an eventful few weeks for Peyton Manning. First, he was released by the Colts, his only NFL home for 14 years. Then he interviewed potential suitors (as much if not more than they interviewed him), narrowed his list to three finalists, and eventually settled on the Broncos. Now he's Denver's starting quarterback and the expectation is that, when the 2012 season starts, Manning will be back to his football-winning ways.
That's the hope, anyway. And while the Broncos pray that Manning is fully recovered by September, there are some concerns that he was showing signs of decline in 2010 before the four neck surgeries forced him to miss last season.
"The fall-off was significant on film," one scout from a rival AFC team told NFL Network's Albert Breer Tuesday. "He showed stiffness and lost athletic traits. What made him special was never his athletic ability or movement skills, but you could see it with his arm strength, too."
Arm strength has been a popular topic with Manning in recent months and for good reason: if a quarterback isn't capable of making all the throws, it won't take long for defenses to figure it out, adjust the game plan accordingly, and make it that much tougher for an offense to execute.
"His rotation was fine, his accuracy was fine," the AFC scout said. "But as far as the ball getting from Point A to Point B, and how much time he was giving defensive backs to drive on the football, there was enough there for concern."
It's fair to argue that part of Manning's 2010 issues had to do with the neck injury that eventually led to multiple surgeries. Still, according to those who have seen Manning's workouts, they seem more and more to resemble what we've come to expect from one of the NFL's best quarterbacks.
In recent weeks, Manning has worked out with his college offensive coordinator, David Cutcliffe, who now coaches at Duke, and Cutcliffe has come away impressed.
"With Peyton, his release time is important, and that's right on target now," he told Sports Illustrated's Peter King. "His velocity is right on. His arm slot is right on. His accuracy's amazing. Obviously I'm close to him, but I've watched him throw for almost 20 years now, and I'm really excited about what I think is going to happen. He's going to be great when he needs to be great."
And Manning's former teammate, Brandon Stokley, sounded equally optimistic after a workout earlier this month.
"I saw him for three days at Duke and he was the only quarterback (throwing to four or five receivers) and he threw a ton of balls for three straight practices and the guy looked to me like he did when I was there six years ago," Stokley said according to the Denver Post. "He threw on Saturday here on a little field and maybe because he had some rest, I think he looked better than he had last week."
But even if by September Manning is as close to 100 percent as he's been in two years, doubts remain. Not from the neck surgeries but from Manning's play down the stretch during the 2010 season. An executive for a team that pursued Manning in free agency was aware of the arm-strength issues too.
"I can tell you, seeing some of the footage of him throwing, there was depreciation in velocity and zip," he told Breer. "It gets there, but there's some natural descent in how he's throwing. Is it still good enough? Yeah. It's not what it used to be, but he'll keep getting better, and it's only natural that it might not be where it was. He's 36. But with his ball placement, his location, his timing, his anticipation -- which is outstanding, right place, right time, every time -- he'll be fine."
And that's the football calculus the Broncos had to do: is the 36-year-old Manning without his fastball worth some $90 million? Clearly, the answer was a resounding yes. It's a risk worth taking, particularly given that a) the team was clearly in the market for a quarterback not named Tim Tebow, and b) Manning is a Hall of Famer who gets by as much with his above-the-neck skills as he does with his physical abilities. Plus, there's this anecdote from King's SI piece that puts everything into perspective:
"Manning talked to another confidant, Bill Parcells, who he knew wouldn't b.s. him. He told Parcells his arm wasn't 100% yet. 'You know who Jamie Moyer is?' Parcells asked, referring to the veteran lefthander who's been pitching in the majors since 1986. Manning said he did. 'He's 49 years old,' Parcells said. 'He's not 26 anymore, but he's still getting 'em out. Can you still throw well enough to get 'em out?'
"'I think I can,' Manning said. "'Then don't worry about it.'"
I disagree completely. It's in his current division, and it's a division that's wide open. They have an amazing talent at WR and certainly the WR corp (inclusive of the TEs) has plenty Peyton can work with. I think he would make the Titans the prohibitive favorites to win that division each and every season.
