Peyton's floating the ball again... (1 Viewer)

[Not Sleeping]

I think clearly playing vs Indy in Indy was a little in peytons head.

he's fine, however that offensive line is in shambles.

It's not to hard to get in peytons head, how about have a game that's not REGULAR SEASON and means something... what's his playoff record again? It's funny how Manning get's a pass but yet everyone hated On Lebron James and he is clearly the best player now or ever but gets #### on because people can't be analytical or want to hold on to the past and their daddies favorite players or can't get out of the 80's. Similar situation here, Peyton is the GREATEST regular season qb ever but when the games Matter Manning shrinks.

1) Peyton Manning doesn't get a pass.

2) Hating on Peyton is every bit as stupid as hating on Lebron was, and for exactly the same reasons.

Because he's white?

Wait...what?

 

[Devine Intervention]

I love how Manning has been on fire this year, he puts up 33 points this game in a situation where his RB killed a drive at the goal line, he had very good stats, and people are questioning him as a QB. Am I missing something? Is this more of a concern about him being injured or are people highly overacting to a loss where Manning still played a very solid game?

 

[Mile High]

people highly overacting to a loss

 

[ZWK]

Manning's numbers this week were typical for a top 5 QB, instead of being like the runaway #1 QB.

For example, he averaged 0.25 expected points added per play. On the season, the leading QBs in EPA/play are:

0.38 Manning

0.28 Ryan

0.25 Brees

0.25 Rivers

0.22 Rodgers

Similarly, PFF graded him at +2.2 for the game. The leading QBs this season in PFF grade per game are:

3.4 Manning

2.7 Ryan

2.4 Rivers

2.2 Luck

1.8 Brees

 

[habsfan]

I love how Manning has been on fire this year, he puts up 33 points this game in a situation where his RB killed a drive at the goal line, he had very good stats, and people are questioning him as a QB. Am I missing something? Is this more of a concern about him being injured or are people highly overacting to a loss where Manning still played a very solid game?

I don't own Manning and I'm not a Broncos fan. I simply noticed a lack of velocity and passes coming out of his hand that almost look like they were flying end over end.

 

[purestrength]

He has been throwing wobbly passes all year long and most of them have been complete. Have not seen many tight spirals the entire season so I would not be too worried now.

He's thrown wobbly passes his entire career.

Exactly.

I'm waiting for someone to start a "What's wrong with the Denver offense?" thread after the Broncos were held to 35 and 33 points the last two weeks.

Please, someone do that. I need a good laugh.

 

[Dizzy]

I love how Manning has been on fire this year, he puts up 33 points this game in a situation where his RB killed a drive at the goal line, he had very good stats, and people are questioning him as a QB. Am I missing something? Is this more of a concern about him being injured or are people highly overacting to a loss where Manning still played a very solid game?

At some point guys get old, or injuries creep back in (or both). It sure seemed to a lot of folks watching that balls were fluttering around... just speculating on the reason.

They didn't look like typical "Manning wobbly passes" to me... it looked more like he had trouble gripping the football, or bringing is arm around. I know it's always a game of inches, but he was one or two mis-timed jumps away from a few more INT's last night.

It's just something to keep an eye on.

 

[Devine Intervention]

I agree that his deep ball didn't have enough on them multiple times and the WRs bailed him out. But the thing about Manning is he will just find a different way to get it done. I think Julius Thomas will be a savior for the Broncos because its tough stretching the field outside the hashes deep, but hitting Julius deep up the middle will keep the safeties back.

 

[Deadman31]

maybe his gigantic forehead has something to do with it. Nothing better than watching him choke year after year after year.

 

[Dizzy]

I agree that his deep ball didn't have enough on them multiple times and the WRs bailed him out. But the thing about Manning is he will just find a different way to get it done. I think Julius Thomas will be a savior for the Broncos because its tough stretching the field outside the hashes deep, but hitting Julius deep up the middle will keep the safeties back.

I think that's where he's at now. As physical skills start to drop off, the great players raise the cerebral part of their game. There has to be a curve though, right? One day the skills drop to a point where the mental bag'o'tricks can't overcome them.

I don't think Manning is near that point yet, but something was really off about those fluttering passes Sunday night. Curious to see what happens his next time out.

 

[Goldfinger007]

Its really pretty simple. Yes, they have some outstanding skill position players on offense, but Denver just never was invincible. I talked about it in the Chiefs D thread. That offensive line is highly questionable and Manning doesn't like pressure in his face. Never has. He has to have a pocket to throw from. He's got such a quick release that he's been able to compensate for his offensive line's deficiencies, but that was against average defenses. Against a stronger defense, which can bring pressure both off the edges and collapse the pocket up the middle, he's in trouble. The KC game is going to be very interesting

 

[Adam Harstad]

Through 6 weeks, Peyton had attempted 40 deep passes (15+ yards beyond the LoS) on 240 attempts. His 16.7% deep passing rate ranked behind every regular starter at QB except for Romo, Ryan, and Alex Smith.

Against Indianapolis, Peyton attempted 19 deep passes on 49 attempts. His 38.8% deep passing rate ranked ahead of every other QB in week 7 except for Geno Smith.

Assuming that you've watched most/all of Broncos' games this year (I haven't seen all of them): were the Colts doing anything differently on defense to force Manning to go deep? Watching last night, it seemed they were using a lot of press coverage, taking away the short throws that Manning has thrived on so far. Rotating between Cover 2 and 1. Vontae Davis had a very good game, and not every team has a good CB, but did the Colts perhaps give a blueprint of sorts?

The Colts weren't doing anything Manning hasn't seen before, they were just executing a lot better. They did a good job at pressing the receivers and disrupting the short stuff. I wonder how much of the deep passing was part of the pre-game plan, how much of it was a reaction to the defense, and how much was just being down two scores. If I had to guess, I'd place higher percentages on the 1st and 3rd option than the 2nd.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

The music from the shocked hamster video comes to mind:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8Kyi0WNg40

Broncos giving rest to several veterans, including Wes Welker, Shaun Phillips, Eric Decker, Chris Kuper. And Peyton Manning.

https://twitter.com/MikeKlis/status/393069857731665921

Welker, Decker and Manning all getting rest probably indicates they're just taking a day off.

 

[KingPrawn]

http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasyfootball

Peyton Manning grabbed ankle after Robert Mathis sack
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7:55 pm ET) A screen shot has surfaced, courtesy of USA Today, showing Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning grabbing his right ankle after being sacked by the Colts' Robert Mathis in the third quarter Sunday night. Manning did not practice Wednesday with what was termed a minor ankle injury.Coach John Fox would not say when the injury occurred, or which ankle Manning hurt. Manning also shed little light on the injury. He told the Denver Post he wanted to practice Wednesday but trainers wouldn't let him. He said he'll practice Thursday, which should alleviate any concern over his Week 8 status.

Manning was sacked twice by Mathis and four times overall by Indy, the most he'd been sacked in a game in six years. He leads the NFL with 25 touchdown passes.

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

In the presser a reporter asked Manning if the Mathis hit had an effect on his arm strength since it seemed like that play started the switch to floaters. Peyton played it off (joking that he throws a lot of wobbly passes... and wobbly TD's too), but you could tell the question bothered him a bit.

Interesting.

It's been interesting for some time how the most fastidious QB in the history of football throws one of the ugliest balls in the NFL.

Billy Kilmer and Joe Kapp had ugly balls too.

That was before the days of manscaping and scrotal bleaching.

 

[voiceofunreason]

He has been throwing wobbly passes all year long and most of them have been complete. Have not seen many tight spirals the entire season so I would not be too worried now.

He's thrown wobbly passes his entire career.

Exactly.

I'm waiting for someone to start a "What's wrong with the Denver offense?" thread after the Broncos were held to 35 and 33 points the last two weeks.

Please, someone do that. I need a good laugh.

He threw the ball numerous times to Thomas deep and every time the ball was underthrown by at least 5 yards. Nobody was catching those balls. That is concerning. Go back and watch the game if you don't believe me. The numbers lie. The fact is the Colts had about 50 yards of offense in the second half and kept giving the ball to Manning. It was a very ugly game for Denver's offense. They had no running game, their line looks awful (missing both tackles) and Manning could not throw the ball deep. The colts corners sat all over the Bronco receivers and dared him to beat them deep. He couldn't do it.

He's still the top qb out there, but it doesn't look as great as the numbers suggest.

 

[moleculo]

http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasyfootball

Peyton Manning grabbed ankle after Robert Mathis sackby Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7:55 pm ET) A screen shot has surfaced, courtesy of USA Today, showing Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning grabbing his right ankle after being sacked by the Colts' Robert Mathis in the third quarter Sunday night. Manning did not practice Wednesday with what was termed a minor ankle injury.Coach John Fox would not say when the injury occurred, or which ankle Manning hurt. Manning also shed little light on the injury. He told the Denver Post he wanted to practice Wednesday but trainers wouldn't let him. He said he'll practice Thursday, which should alleviate any concern over his Week 8 status.

Manning was sacked twice by Mathis and four times overall by Indy, the most he'd been sacked in a game in six years. He leads the NFL with 25 touchdown passes.

it's probably worth noting that after this hit, Manning was 17-28, 262 yards, 1 TD and 1 int, QB rating of 88.7. The int came when his arm was hit in the act of throwing. If you took the int out of the equation, his QB rating would be 107.3, roughly the same as is QB rating the rest of the game.

 

[prgromek]

ESPN's Chris Mortensen reports Peyton Manning is battling sprains in both ankles, including a right high-ankle sprain.

 

[Sarnoff]

Apparently battling the "dreaded high-ankle-sprain" since week 6 vs. Jags. I don't know much about that injury, but if memory serves, it can linger. Not sure if just resting it over the upcoming bye will be enough to relieve it.

Peyton getting painkiller injections before the games now.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Peyton already moves around like a tranquilized elephant so I don't see this affecting him too much.

 

[meyerj31]

Is anyone considering selling him high right now?

The fluttering deep ball, two ankle issues, and the fact that Indy (of all teams) figured out a way to contain the offense is super concerning, IMO. I guess I wouldn't consider it unless I had a great QB2... in one league I have RG3 behind him so debating selling Manning for AJ Green type player.

 

[Mile High]

Is anyone considering selling him high right now?

The fluttering deep ball, two ankle issues, and the fact that Indy (of all teams) figured out a way to contain the offense is super concerning, IMO. I guess I wouldn't consider it unless I had a great QB2... in one league I have RG3 behind him so debating selling Manning for AJ Green type player.

They contained Denver? They scored 33 and where 2 yds away from 40.

 

[meyerj31]

Is anyone considering selling him high right now?

The fluttering deep ball, two ankle issues, and the fact that Indy (of all teams) figured out a way to contain the offense is super concerning, IMO. I guess I wouldn't consider it unless I had a great QB2... in one league I have RG3 behind him so debating selling Manning for AJ Green type player.

They contained Denver? They scored 33 and where 2 yds away from 40.

I don't include garbage time. You have to look at the whole picture. Indy has the blueprint/personnel to beat them... solid cover 2 and getting a pass rush with 4. Maybe not every team can do that, but that's how you beat them. That's how KC beat the one-dimensional 2011 Packers when they were 13-0 and had no run game... covered well and got pressure with four. And what happened to the 15-1 Packers? They flopped out in the first round.

Anyway, that comment was more about Manning's health issues. Add those to the fact that their offense is having struggles vs an average defense and it's concerning. The shark move might be to be selling Manning high this week.

 

[need2know]

Is anyone considering selling him high right now?

The fluttering deep ball, two ankle issues, and the fact that Indy (of all teams) figured out a way to contain the offense is super concerning, IMO. I guess I wouldn't consider it unless I had a great QB2... in one league I have RG3 behind him so debating selling Manning for AJ Green type player.

They contained Denver? They scored 33 and where 2 yds away from 40.

I don't include garbage time. You have to look at the whole picture. Indy has the blueprint/personnel to beat them... solid cover 2 and getting a pass rush with 4. Maybe not every team can do that, but that's how you beat them. That's how KC beat the one-dimensional 2011 Packers when they were 13-0 and had no run game... covered well and got pressure with four. And what happened to the 15-1 Packers? They flopped out in the first round.

Anyway, that comment was more about Manning's health issues. Add those to the fact that their offense is having struggles vs an average defense and it's concerning. The shark move might be to be selling Manning high this week.

If you get the right deal... I don't see any offensive issues with denver though. They are the best offense in the league. Plus the bye should really help peyton out

 

[Judge Smails]

I know he's always thrown ducks, but the end of the Dallas game and almost the entirety of this game something seemed...off. Not only did he not seem as comfortable throwing the deep to immediate pass, the balls had no velocity behind them and were very often under-thrown. His ducks in the past were assuredely ugly, but most of the time they got there.

Not only that, but the play calling and reliance upon Moreno that we haven't seen in previous games only reinforced my belief that something may be wrong with either his neck or arm. In the first five games they came out guns blazing and didn't really look to the run unless the situation called for it or they had a comfortable lead. There were check downs and runs galore, when in the past that wouldn't have been the play. Considering they were behind for most of the game and never had a sizable lead, it seemed off.

It's amazing he came away with the stats he did IMHO, and it's only because they turned out that way that people aren't talking about this more. I guess a 75% Manning is better than most.

Manning's entire season has been checkdowns. The deep pass has been largely absent from his game, and if it seems like he threw a lot more bad deep passes than usual against Indy, that's because he threw a lot more deep passes PERIOD than usual. Demaryius Thomas, in particular, probably came close to doubling his number of targets 20+ yards down the field for the season.

Manning definitely looked like the situation and the pass rush were both in his head last night, but I also think that over a small sample size you're going to get a lot of variance. Sometimes that variance is good and you throw 7 TDs. Sometimes that variance is bad and... well, you still throw 3 TDs. I would be a lot more concerned with Manning today if he hadn't come out on fire in the fourth quarter and moved the ball at will (at least, when Hillman wasn't fumbling it and JT wasn't getting used as a turnstile). As it stands, yesterday's game reminds me a lot more of Atlanta/New England/Houston/San Diego last year, where Manning suffered some really bad stretches early and turned on the jets late.

All in all, I view it as something to watch going forward, but not yet a serious cause for concern. Another week or two of this level of play, and absolutely I'm going to be worried.

You know what, for a guy that claims to know the Broncos inside and out, and has been wrong on several things (including the one real question mark - the backfield), I'm totally calling BS on this. For most of the year Peyton threw anywhere he wanted. He threw checkdowns, crossing patterns, deep outs, fly patterns. Didn't matter. And he had zip on the ball. Saying that his whole season has been check downs is just preposterous.

 

[meyerj31]

I know he's always thrown ducks, but the end of the Dallas game and almost the entirety of this game something seemed...off. Not only did he not seem as comfortable throwing the deep to immediate pass, the balls had no velocity behind them and were very often under-thrown. His ducks in the past were assuredely ugly, but most of the time they got there.

Not only that, but the play calling and reliance upon Moreno that we haven't seen in previous games only reinforced my belief that something may be wrong with either his neck or arm. In the first five games they came out guns blazing and didn't really look to the run unless the situation called for it or they had a comfortable lead. There were check downs and runs galore, when in the past that wouldn't have been the play. Considering they were behind for most of the game and never had a sizable lead, it seemed off.

It's amazing he came away with the stats he did IMHO, and it's only because they turned out that way that people aren't talking about this more. I guess a 75% Manning is better than most.

Manning's entire season has been checkdowns. The deep pass has been largely absent from his game, and if it seems like he threw a lot more bad deep passes than usual against Indy, that's because he threw a lot more deep passes PERIOD than usual. Demaryius Thomas, in particular, probably came close to doubling his number of targets 20+ yards down the field for the season.

Manning definitely looked like the situation and the pass rush were both in his head last night, but I also think that over a small sample size you're going to get a lot of variance. Sometimes that variance is good and you throw 7 TDs. Sometimes that variance is bad and... well, you still throw 3 TDs. I would be a lot more concerned with Manning today if he hadn't come out on fire in the fourth quarter and moved the ball at will (at least, when Hillman wasn't fumbling it and JT wasn't getting used as a turnstile). As it stands, yesterday's game reminds me a lot more of Atlanta/New England/Houston/San Diego last year, where Manning suffered some really bad stretches early and turned on the jets late.

All in all, I view it as something to watch going forward, but not yet a serious cause for concern. Another week or two of this level of play, and absolutely I'm going to be worried.

You know what, for a guy that claims to know the Broncos inside and out, and has been wrong on several things (including the one real question mark - the backfield), I'm totally calling BS on this. For most of the year Peyton threw anywhere he wanted. He threw checkdowns, crossing patterns, deep outs, fly patterns. Didn't matter. And he had zip on the ball. Saying that his whole season has been check downs is just preposterous.

+1

Whole season has been checkdowns? That's ridiculous. Manning has thrown the ball in tight spaces everywhere on the field up until last game. If a higher percentage of his throws have been less than 15 yards it's because that's what the defense has been giving them (i.e., not giving up the big play). But when the big play has been there, Manning has converted.

 

[Smack Tripper]

Very concerned owner of a few Denver receivers. Lets hope he can bounce back off the bye but nerve compression probably doesn't bounce back in ten days

 

[need2know]

Very concerned owner of a few Denver receivers. Lets hope he can bounce back off the bye but nerve compression probably doesn't bounce back in ten days

Man manning looks fine. 3 tds and 308 yards through 3 qtrs aint enough for you? Sheesh

 

[Adam Harstad]

I know he's always thrown ducks, but the end of the Dallas game and almost the entirety of this game something seemed...off. Not only did he not seem as comfortable throwing the deep to immediate pass, the balls had no velocity behind them and were very often under-thrown. His ducks in the past were assuredely ugly, but most of the time they got there.

Not only that, but the play calling and reliance upon Moreno that we haven't seen in previous games only reinforced my belief that something may be wrong with either his neck or arm. In the first five games they came out guns blazing and didn't really look to the run unless the situation called for it or they had a comfortable lead. There were check downs and runs galore, when in the past that wouldn't have been the play. Considering they were behind for most of the game and never had a sizable lead, it seemed off.

It's amazing he came away with the stats he did IMHO, and it's only because they turned out that way that people aren't talking about this more. I guess a 75% Manning is better than most.

Manning's entire season has been checkdowns. The deep pass has been largely absent from his game, and if it seems like he threw a lot more bad deep passes than usual against Indy, that's because he threw a lot more deep passes PERIOD than usual. Demaryius Thomas, in particular, probably came close to doubling his number of targets 20+ yards down the field for the season.

Manning definitely looked like the situation and the pass rush were both in his head last night, but I also think that over a small sample size you're going to get a lot of variance. Sometimes that variance is good and you throw 7 TDs. Sometimes that variance is bad and... well, you still throw 3 TDs. I would be a lot more concerned with Manning today if he hadn't come out on fire in the fourth quarter and moved the ball at will (at least, when Hillman wasn't fumbling it and JT wasn't getting used as a turnstile). As it stands, yesterday's game reminds me a lot more of Atlanta/New England/Houston/San Diego last year, where Manning suffered some really bad stretches early and turned on the jets late.

All in all, I view it as something to watch going forward, but not yet a serious cause for concern. Another week or two of this level of play, and absolutely I'm going to be worried.

You know what, for a guy that claims to know the Broncos inside and out, and has been wrong on several things (including the one real question mark - the backfield), I'm totally calling BS on this. For most of the year Peyton threw anywhere he wanted. He threw checkdowns, crossing patterns, deep outs, fly patterns. Didn't matter. And he had zip on the ball. Saying that his whole season has been check downs is just preposterous.

Peyton Manning attempted 40 passes 15+ yards beyond the Line of Scrimmage through the first six weeks of the season. That was out of 240 total attempts. His 16.8% deep passing percentage ranked in the bottom five in the league.

Peyton Manning attempted 19 passes 15+ yards beyond the Line of Scrimmage in week seven against Indy. That was out of 49 total attempts. His 38.8% deep passing percentage was the second highest of any quarterback in week 7, behind Geno Smith.

 

[cobalt_27]

I know he's always thrown ducks, but the end of the Dallas game and almost the entirety of this game something seemed...off. Not only did he not seem as comfortable throwing the deep to immediate pass, the balls had no velocity behind them and were very often under-thrown. His ducks in the past were assuredely ugly, but most of the time they got there.

Not only that, but the play calling and reliance upon Moreno that we haven't seen in previous games only reinforced my belief that something may be wrong with either his neck or arm. In the first five games they came out guns blazing and didn't really look to the run unless the situation called for it or they had a comfortable lead. There were check downs and runs galore, when in the past that wouldn't have been the play. Considering they were behind for most of the game and never had a sizable lead, it seemed off.

It's amazing he came away with the stats he did IMHO, and it's only because they turned out that way that people aren't talking about this more. I guess a 75% Manning is better than most.

Manning's entire season has been checkdowns. The deep pass has been largely absent from his game, and if it seems like he threw a lot more bad deep passes than usual against Indy, that's because he threw a lot more deep passes PERIOD than usual. Demaryius Thomas, in particular, probably came close to doubling his number of targets 20+ yards down the field for the season.

Manning definitely looked like the situation and the pass rush were both in his head last night, but I also think that over a small sample size you're going to get a lot of variance. Sometimes that variance is good and you throw 7 TDs. Sometimes that variance is bad and... well, you still throw 3 TDs. I would be a lot more concerned with Manning today if he hadn't come out on fire in the fourth quarter and moved the ball at will (at least, when Hillman wasn't fumbling it and JT wasn't getting used as a turnstile). As it stands, yesterday's game reminds me a lot more of Atlanta/New England/Houston/San Diego last year, where Manning suffered some really bad stretches early and turned on the jets late.

All in all, I view it as something to watch going forward, but not yet a serious cause for concern. Another week or two of this level of play, and absolutely I'm going to be worried.

You know what, for a guy that claims to know the Broncos inside and out, and has been wrong on several things (including the one real question mark - the backfield), I'm totally calling BS on this. For most of the year Peyton threw anywhere he wanted. He threw checkdowns, crossing patterns, deep outs, fly patterns. Didn't matter. And he had zip on the ball. Saying that his whole season has been check downs is just preposterous.

Peyton Manning attempted 40 passes 15+ yards beyond the Line of Scrimmage through the first six weeks of the season. That was out of 240 total attempts. His 16.8% deep passing percentage ranked in the bottom five in the league.

Peyton Manning attempted 19 passes 15+ yards beyond the Line of Scrimmage in week seven against Indy. That was out of 49 total attempts. His 38.8% deep passing percentage was the second highest of any quarterback in week 7, behind Geno Smith.

Adam, I think the question is what's his check down rate, not his deep passing rate. There's a lot of real estate between a "check-down" and 15+ yards.ETA I believe Manning is 5th in in the league in AirYPA.

 

[gradin123]

Right now If I am any team playing Denver I am playing 8 men in the box on almost everyplay. I am not allowing Moreno to get a screen and I am double covering Welker. Peyton can have the one on one deep ball to Thomas, I would make him beat me that way. He may very well do that, but on other hand by contuining to let Moreno get covered out of the backfield by some LB is always going to get you killed. It is too easy for Peyton.

 

[HairySasquatch]

In the presser a reporter asked Manning if the Mathis hit had an effect on his arm strength since it seemed like that play started the switch to floaters. Peyton played it off (joking that he throws a lot of wobbly passes... and wobbly TD's too), but you could tell the question bothered him a bit.

Interesting.

It's been interesting for some time how the most fastidious QB in the history of football throws one of the ugliest balls in the NFL.

Billy Kilmer and Joe Kapp had ugly balls too.

That was before the days of manscaping and scrotal bleaching.

hahahahahahhahahahahahahahhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

 

[Adam Harstad]

I know he's always thrown ducks, but the end of the Dallas game and almost the entirety of this game something seemed...off. Not only did he not seem as comfortable throwing the deep to immediate pass, the balls had no velocity behind them and were very often under-thrown. His ducks in the past were assuredely ugly, but most of the time they got there.

Not only that, but the play calling and reliance upon Moreno that we haven't seen in previous games only reinforced my belief that something may be wrong with either his neck or arm. In the first five games they came out guns blazing and didn't really look to the run unless the situation called for it or they had a comfortable lead. There were check downs and runs galore, when in the past that wouldn't have been the play. Considering they were behind for most of the game and never had a sizable lead, it seemed off.

It's amazing he came away with the stats he did IMHO, and it's only because they turned out that way that people aren't talking about this more. I guess a 75% Manning is better than most.

Manning's entire season has been checkdowns. The deep pass has been largely absent from his game, and if it seems like he threw a lot more bad deep passes than usual against Indy, that's because he threw a lot more deep passes PERIOD than usual. Demaryius Thomas, in particular, probably came close to doubling his number of targets 20+ yards down the field for the season.

Manning definitely looked like the situation and the pass rush were both in his head last night, but I also think that over a small sample size you're going to get a lot of variance. Sometimes that variance is good and you throw 7 TDs. Sometimes that variance is bad and... well, you still throw 3 TDs. I would be a lot more concerned with Manning today if he hadn't come out on fire in the fourth quarter and moved the ball at will (at least, when Hillman wasn't fumbling it and JT wasn't getting used as a turnstile). As it stands, yesterday's game reminds me a lot more of Atlanta/New England/Houston/San Diego last year, where Manning suffered some really bad stretches early and turned on the jets late.

All in all, I view it as something to watch going forward, but not yet a serious cause for concern. Another week or two of this level of play, and absolutely I'm going to be worried.

You know what, for a guy that claims to know the Broncos inside and out, and has been wrong on several things (including the one real question mark - the backfield), I'm totally calling BS on this. For most of the year Peyton threw anywhere he wanted. He threw checkdowns, crossing patterns, deep outs, fly patterns. Didn't matter. And he had zip on the ball. Saying that his whole season has been check downs is just preposterous.

Peyton Manning attempted 40 passes 15+ yards beyond the Line of Scrimmage through the first six weeks of the season. That was out of 240 total attempts. His 16.8% deep passing percentage ranked in the bottom five in the league.

Peyton Manning attempted 19 passes 15+ yards beyond the Line of Scrimmage in week seven against Indy. That was out of 49 total attempts. His 38.8% deep passing percentage was the second highest of any quarterback in week 7, behind Geno Smith.

Adam, I think the question is what's his check down rate, not his deep passing rate. There's a lot of real estate between a "check-down" and 15+ yards.ETA I believe Manning is 5th in in the league in AirYPA.

Very fair, my "nothing but checkdowns" comment was very poorly phrased. The point I was trying to make in my original post is that, prior to Indy, Peyton simply had not been throwing deep at anywhere near the same rate as he was in 2012, and the Indianapolis game was the first time when we had a large enough sample size to really notice how it was going.

Since we're on the topic of checkdown rate, though... AirYPA isn't the best measure of checkdown rate. A guy who throws every pass 6 yards past the LoS and has a 100% completion percentage will have an AirYPA of 6.0. So will a guy who throws every pass 12 yards past the LoS and has a 50% completion percentage. Manning's surreal completion percentage is inflating his AirYPA to some degree.

Air Yards per Completion would be a better measure of checkdown rate. Average depth of target (ADoT) would be even better, still. I know Mike Clay tracks ADoT for PFF, but I don't see anywhere where it might be available on the site. PFF does track "%YIA" (or percentage of yards that come through the air before the catch), and Manning ranks 19th out of 31 qualifiers. That includes the Indy game, which was a bit of an outlier compared to his normal usage during the season, though- I would wager he was lower prior to week 7. He hasn't been Alex Smith, but for most of the season, I would wager that Peyton Manning has been in the bottom 10 in ADoT.

Denver's most consistent weapons on offense this year have been the screen pass to Demaryius, the screen pass to an RB, and the shallow cross to Welker. All three were on full display against Washington. Manning's also been killing it on the intermediate routes, too (especially in week 1 against Baltimore, where he was just getting 10-15 yard chunks all game long). He's not yet managed to consistently get on the same page with his receivers (mostly Demaryius) on the deep ball. I think this is one area where Demaryius's lack of A.J. Green-like ball skills hurts him, because Manning has been just a little bit off on a lot of his deep throws, which has resulted in maybe a half dozen deep passes that have fallen off of Demaryius's fingertips so far this year. It feels like every week in Demaryius's recap I'm writing up two long passes that were just inches off. Which is another thing that showed up today against Washington, on Hall's last INT of the day.