LordBourbon
Footballguy
First 13 picks mocked and some thoughts on the Eagles picks...
http://www.sportstalk950.com/betbot.shtml
http://www.sportstalk950.com/betbot.shtml
It’s springtime for Betbot. You know what spring means here in Sin City? I am due for my yearly diagnostics session, it gets hotter earlier (not just on the craps table) and the showgirls get a little tanner. Yes, Spring has sprung.
Of course in Philadelphia Spring is a little different. College-age women are unleashing their physiques from the constraints of winter coats – birds are chirping and bees are …BZT…buzzing. The Phillies are rushing out to another sub-par start, the Flyers are ready to tease their fans, and rumors of trading AI fill the papers and websites. But who cares…It’s NFL Draft time, baby!
If you’re reading this column you’re probably pretty bleeping savvy and know your stuff. You also know that everyone and their daddy has a NFL draft prediction column out there, you can add me to that list. That’s…BZT… right I’m gonna mock draft, get ready to taste it. Now look, I have to share my thoughts on mock drafts in general before I do this:
- Mock drafts are almost 100% worthless if you are not an employee of the NFL, media or an NFL franchise. This is a proven fact, I’ve seen a study on it somewhere.
- You need no credentials whatsoever to produce a mock draft. This leads to some pretty wild stuff, mostly on the internet.
- Mock drafts are always wrong, always.
Given these facts, you would think that producing mock drafts is a practice that would have died back when there were no jokes about Mel Kiper Jr.’s hair; yet somehow the mock draft phenomena keeps growing. Why? Well, mock drafts are fun to read, of course. I did state that mocks are almost 100% worthless, but they are entertaining. As fun as mocks are to read, they are…BZZZT…even more fun to compile – and I’m all about me, so that’s why you get a mock draft from Yours Truly.
Before I begin I want to be plain and up front about the format of this thing and what you expect:
- This is an article published for Philadelphia, so I’m going to take an Eagles-centric view of the draft.
- I will try to predict the first 13 picks (before the Eagles pick at #14) but I won’t project picks for any other teams beyond the first 13 picks.
- I will only name players for the first three rounds, naming specific guys and marrying them to picks after round three sounds more fruitless than Queen Elizabeth I’s womb. However, I will call out a couple more needs for the Eagles to address in the later rounds.
- I will assume no trades in the first 13 picks or any trades for the Eagles. This is pretty bleeping unrealistic, I know, but trying to forecast trades is harder to do than forecasting picks.
- For the Eagles first round pick, I will submit 2 names – who I would pick, and who I think the Eagles management will pick. For the second and third round picks, I will only submit who I would take. I agree with a lot of what Eagles brass does, but not everything; and how they value certain positions baffles me, so I can’t only present what I would do in the first round, but what I think will most likely happen.
Ready?
1.1 Houston Texans – RB USC - Reggie Bush – Never mind the buzz you hear about the Texans not taking Bush. Assuming they stay in this draft slot, they are taking Bush. Bush is a RB and kick returner; supposedly he’s the second coming of Gale Sayers. Hopefully this doesn’t mean Bush will be washed up in 5 years like Sayers. Houston is the first team on the clock, and this pick is right in Charley Casserly’s wheelhouse. Consider that Houston already has young, productive players in RB Dominick Davis and in KR Jerome Mathis. It would take a GM with a history of failure to replace them instead of the other parts of the team with gaping holes (OL, the entire defense). At least drafting Bush would be defensible, since the consensus seems to be that Bush is a once-in-a-lifetime kind of talent (just like Eli Manning!) On the other hand, signing overrated 32 year old Eric Moulds to a $14 million contract to be your …BZT… #2 receiver? Now that’s just kicking a franchise when it’s down.
1.2 New Orleans Saints – DE NC State – Mario Williams – I think they trade down to #4 here, but Williams really is the second best player in the draft, and they have a need here. Well, they have a…BZT… need everywhere, and Williams is going to be a very good player, who will make an immediate impact. Interestingly enough, with the departures of the ultra-erratic Aaron Brooks and the ultra-overwhelmed Jim Haslett, there’s a good chance that the Saints defense won’t be the fantasy gold mine it was over the last 5 years or so. Loyal readers know the value of seeing your players up against New Orleans, but that may just change with a new coaching staff and an impact player on the D-Line. All is not lost, however; Brooks landed in Oakland, whose defense is bad enough already that they will become the new New Orleans, or the …BZZT… “Very New Orleans”.
1.3 Tennessee Titans – QB USC – Matt Leinart – This pick makes too much sense. If the Jets don’t jump ahead of the Titans, Leinart will be a Titan next year, and could be the starter.
Some teams are a little scared of Leinart’s love of the Hollywood lifestyle and his decision to get an agent for his non-football related activities. I would be scared too. Think about it, he could have come out last year, and been the sure #1 pick in the NFL, but he was having too much fun at USC. I don’t blame him, have you seen the bleeping cheerleaders? Man…But where is his focus? Is his heart in the right place?
This reminds me of the time I spent on the set of The Planet of the Apes. I played Roboticus 3, who traveled forward in time with Charlton Heston and the rest of the crew and landed in the nightmare time of monkeys. I was cut from the film after two weeks of filming because of my contract…BZZZT… demands (I wanted 1% of the money GROSS not NET)…cheap producers, I was on track for an Oscar. Anyway, Heston spoke to me at length about guns, women and the evils of Hollywood. He said to me, “Barney, (he called me Barney, I don’t know why) Hollywood is a great place, but it’s a land of make-believe. It’ll rot your brain and your groin in short order. You can get penicillin for the groin issue, but brain rot is forever.”
Me? I love Hollywood. But I can see his point. I think Leinart may want to be a movie star more than a NFL QB, in which case his career could be very short…He can always hold out hope for The Cannonball Run to be remade, someone needs to take over Burt Reynolds’ career.
1.4 New York Jets – OT Virginia – D’Brickashaw Ferguson – If the Jets jump ahead of the Titans, New York has a pretty boy Jets QB to market against the yokel the Giants have QBing their team. If they don’t - they take the fleet footed Ferguson, who will anchor their line for another 10 years. Ferguson is my favorite of the elite prospects. Why? Well, he’s six feet, six inches, and 305 pounds. That means he could crush me into a tin can, unlike that mama’s boy Jay Cutler. Point of reference - I’m actually made from scraps…BZT… from 1950’s space craft prototypes, not tin. Also, there’s the matter of his absolutely sublime first name, which is fun to say and also screams “left tackle”. The Brick’s my #1 prospect.
1.5 Green Bay Packers – CB/S Texas – Michael Huff – I just don’t see a linebacker going in the top 5, I don’t think AJ Hawk goes this early. Michael Huff is going to contribute immediately to a defensive backfield that is headlined by Al ’15 yard penalty’ Harris. As I like to say, when your defense is anchored by Al Harris…you have a defense anchored by Al Harris. When Packers fans bring up Mike Sherman on “crimes against humanity” charges for the past 2 seasons of ridiculously bad pass defense, the former Eagles castoff will be the star witness for the prosecution. Think of it this way – how bad would an offense be if Freddie Mitchell was the star player?
1.6 San Francisco 49ers – TE Maryland – Vernon Davis – So many needs…The Niners should go defense here, but Alex Smith needs someone to work with on the offense. Vernon Davis is getting a lot of hype, and has shown he can produce on the collegiate gridiron – I think he does well on Sundays too.
1.7 Oakland Raiders – QB Texas – Vince Young – The Raiders go Hawk or Young here. The Raiders take a chance on Young; if he can gel with Randy Moss in 2007, the Raiders will have a very good offense. And once again they’ll have very little defense. And once again you’ll stock up on players on offense in the NFC West when drafting your fantasy team. And once again they will clean up. Young’s stock is supposedly falling fast because it looks like he’s as dumb as a rock, if you put any weight in the Wonderlic test. I don’t, and here’s why. There’s no correlation between the ability to be a great football player, at any position, and scoring high on the Wonderlic test. None. So why do teams still make players take it? For the same reason players get ranked on the difference between 4.55 and 4.56 in a 40 yard dash - because that’s what teams have always done. It seems like every genius is tripping over themselves to temper their projections for Young, which pretty much guarantees that he’ll be great. He’s no worse than Michael Vick was 4 years ago, and Vick was the unanimous #1 pick. So how does Young possibly slip out of the top 10?
1.8 Buffalo Bills – DT Oregon – Haloti…BZZT… Ngata – Another team with plenty of holes. Of course, that’s how teams get to draft this early. Ngata provides a very good base around which Marv Levy can rebuild his defense. By the way, the “g” is silent – his last name is pronounced “NOT-UH” as in there’s “NOT-UH” chance that the Eagles are going to be able to trade up this high to draft him, so stop dreaming about it.
1.9 Detroit Lions – LB The Ohio State University – A J Hawk – I like Winston Justice in this spot too. But I think Matt Millen takes the best player left by taking Hawk who probably reminds Millen in some sad way of himself. You know – a bleeping linebacker from a Big Ten…BZZT… school (of course, Penn State was independent when Millen was playing, but you get the idea). Hopefully Millen doesn’t start living vicariously through Hawk, you know - stalking Brady Quinn’s sister and always trying to go to Hooters with him. I hope it doesn’t happen, but assuming Hawk ends up in Detroit, it’s more of a sure thing than Bush going to Houston. Bleeping sad, really.
1.10 Arizona Cardinals – QB Vanderbilt – Jay Cutler – Right now the Cards have no one behind Kurt Warner at QB. They need to draft a QB of the future, I don’t know that they do it in the first round. Cutler is the last of the first round caliber QBs however, and I think the Cards take him and hope Warner can last two more years. Cutler is all over the place as far as value goes, depending on who you listen to. I’m not sure what to think, yes he was on a bad team, and didn’t have a lot of help, but still, his team lost to a lot of other bad teams. Besides, I keep coming back to that haircut he keeps, which is straight out of the Moe Schwartz photo album. Maybe he’ll poke Stu Scott in the eye in the green room.
1.11 St. Louis Rams – DT Florida State - Brodrick Bunkley – Sorry Eagles fans, I don’t see this guy lasting past the Ravens. Bunkley has all the tools to succeed in the NFL and should do quite well in a more defense-focused Rams team. Besides, the Eagles already picked Bunkley last season – his name is Mike Patterson.
1.12 Cleveland Browns – DE Florida State – Kamerion Wimbley – A very quick pass rusher who will most likely serve as an OLB in Romeo Crennel’s 3-4 scheme. No word on whether or not he knows how to ride a motorcycle.
1.13 Baltimore Ravens – OT USC – Winston Justice – A few scouts say that if this kid had come out next year, he’d be a top 3 pick. Other scouts say he’s lazy and needs a great team around him. I think the Ravens get a steal at number 13 and break the Eagles’ front office’s collective heart, because the Eagles really like him.
1.14 Philadelphia Eagles – WR The Ohio State University – Santonio Holmes – I think the Eagles really want either Justice, Bunkley or Ngata – they won’t get them by sitting at #14. I also believe that the Eagles will trade up to get one of these guys; or down if they can’t get them, but for the purposes of this mock draft, I have to keep them at #14. Why not Chad Jackson? Well, the Eagles front office thinks they are smarter than everyone else and will not go with that particular pop pick. Also, Holmes got the job done on Saturdays. Jackson was…BZZZZT… a fine producer with Florida, but he wasn’t a game breaker - Holmes was, and against good competition.
However, I would suggest: LB Florida State – Ernie Sims – I do think Justice, Bunkley and Ngata are the three players who would make the most long term sense for the team. However, the Eagles do have a glaring hole at strong side LB, and that glaring hole likes wearing bow-ties. The Eagles are OK at weak side LB (Barber, McCoy, Simoneou) when you compare that side to SLB (Dhani Jones, Dedrick Roper) anyway. They have two special teamers as options today at SLB, this has to be fixed. Sims played on the strong side at FSU, and while he is a little bit short, he is a playmaker. If the Eagles get Sims, he should be the starter next season.
So that’s how the first round could shake out assuming no trades for the Eagles. As I wrote above, the Eagles will most likely trade. The #14 pick is nothing special, and they could get the same caliber guy at #19 as they could at #14.
Even if there are trades ahead of the Eagles, I think I have nailed what their remaining pool of players will look like. This is…BZT… very unfortunate since Bunkley, Justice and Ngata will be gone by then. I think it’s very likely that the Eagles attempt to trade up and get one of these three guys, they would have to get to pick #11 or #12 to ensure one of this triumvirate.
Now onto their pick in the second round, the draft has pretty good depth in rounds 2 and 3, they should get another potential starter with the second round pick and possibly another one in round 3 if they go after a LB in that round. However, this is more of a comment on the sad state of the Eagles’ outside linebackers than anything else.
2.14 OLB UTEP – Thomas Howard – Of course, this assumes the Eagles don’t take Sims in the first round. Howard is a SLB (notice a trend here?) and another guy who could replace Jones in his first year. Some scouts say that Howard could also play safety, which is an area of need in the future.
3.14 DT Texas – Rodrique Wright – If Wright can push himself, he could be a very good run stuffer. The Eagles could really use some of his bulk to pair with Mike Patterson for the next few years. Again, I am assuming they don’t get a DT in round one, and I think there is some real value in rounds three and four.
Other needs to address in rounds 4-7:
• Remember LeCharles Bentley? The Eagles obviously want to improve the center position, I can see them taking one in the fourth round (they have 3 fourth round picks). In fact, if Nick Mangold from Ohio St. is available for the Eagles in the second round, it’s almost a lock that they’re going to draft him. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles trade up from their second round slot to get Mangold, who looks to be a great talent at the center position and a tweener 1st round pick. Actually, he’s a great fit for New Orleans with the 2nd pick in the 2nd round, because they need to replace…LeCharles Bentley. Can the Eagles wrap a draft package together to move up 13 spots to jump in front of the Saints? With all of their second day picks, I should think so.
• The Eagles need to get an heir apparent to Brian Dawkins, JR Reed ain’t coming back folks. How about a guy like Calvin Lowry from Penn State? Lowry can return punts, too.
• I think that the Eagles will take at least one DT and DE late in the draft, no matter what they do on the first day.
• I also see the Birds taking a WR who can return punts for them. Reno Mahe did a good job, but there was no danger of him taking it to the bleeping house. Greg Jennings, or Hank Baskett would be good picks after round two, if they don’t take Holmes or Jackson earlier.
• Look, I know the Eagles claim they don’t need a running back, but that’s just ridiculous. There is no harm in keeping…BZT… a thunder back around when it’s time to run the clock out or fall forward for a yard. When the defense is yelling “watch the shuffle pass” at the 2 yard line, and then you run a shuffle pass, it’s time to re-evaluate the short yardage offense. For example, consider a guy like Cedric Humes from Virginia Tech. Here’s a 6 foot, 225 pounder with a reputation for breaking tackles, and he won’t cost a high draft pick. What does it hurt to draft this guy and try him out as a short yardage back? There’s also Mike Bell (Arizona) and Wali Lundy (Virginia) – great short yardage guys who can catch, so Reid won’t be afraid to use them.
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