Philip Rivers? (1 Viewer)

[SaintsInDome2006]

I won't get into it, but I obtained Rivers via trade this year and it's been killing my season.

Positives:

The Chargers are throwing a lot, seems like all the time with the running game doing next to nothing.

Rivers is 6th in passing yards, right near Payton Manning's pace.

Warm weather in playoff stretch.

In my league (6 pts/TD, 1 pt./25 yds./-0.5sack/.1.0 INT) he was 2nd in QB points last year, shouldn't he be improving even further?

Negatives:

Rivers has 7 TD's. In 5 games.

Besides VJax, really, what are his receivers doing?

Sacks: 15

Lost fumbles: 3

-----> So what is going on? I've been watching the games and it always looks to me like the Chargers should be making a move late in games and they just get stuck, Rivers doesn't find the end zone primarily.

Can Rivers turn it around or do I go towards a still questionable (?) Orton or try to make a lopsided trade offer for Rothlisberger?

I'm 2-4, but am 2nd in points (worried, but not hopeless) in my league.

Here's Rivers' remaining schedule, so buy, sell, or hold?

7 10/25/09 1:00pm @KC - - - - - Great

8 11/01/09 4:05pm OAK - - - - - Possibly Great, but not a great result for Rivers in Week 1

9 11/08/09 4:15pm @NYG - - - - - Poor/Risky

10 11/15/09 4:15pm PHI - - - - - Poor/Risky

11 11/22/09 4:15pm @DEN - - - - - Poor/Risky

12 11/29/09 4:05pm KC - - - - - Great

13 12/06/09 4:05pm @CLE - - - - - Great

14 12/13/09 4:15pm @DAL - - - - - Great

15 12/20/09 4:05pm CIN - - - - - Great

16 12/25/09 7:30pm @TEN - - - - - Great

(17 01/03/10 4:15pm WAS)

PROBLEM is by Week 11, if Rivers doesn't pick it up big time I may never be able to take advantage of that playoff schedule.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Rivers is 6th in passing yards, right near Payton Manning's pace.

Keep in mind that Rivers is 6th in passing yards despite having his bye week already. Everyone ahead of him except for Manning has not had their bye week yet, and hence has played more games.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Rivers is 6th in passing yards, right near Payton Manning's pace.

Keep in mind that Rivers is 6th in passing yards despite having his bye week already. Everyone ahead of him except for Manning has not had their bye week yet, and hence has played more games.

Ok, right, actually in pypg he's 3rd - he's piling up yards, but few TD's and lots of sacks and 3 lost fumbles:RK PLAYER TEAM ATT COMP PCT YDS YDS/A LONG TD INT SACK RATE YDS/G 1 Peyton Manning, QB IND 181 133 73.5 1645 9.09 80 12 4 2 114.1 329 2 Ben Roethlisberger, QB PIT 207 150 72.5 1887 9.12 52 10 6 16 104.5 315 3 Philip Rivers, QB SDG 183 108 59.0 1519 8.30 81 7 3 15 91.8 304 4 Matt Schaub, QB HOU 219 143 65.3 1810 8.27 72 14 5 10 102.7 302 5 Aaron Rodgers, QB GNB 164 106 64.6 1456 8.88 62 8 2 25 104.1 291 6 Kurt Warner, QB ARI 201 138 68.7 1441 7.17 40 8 5 10 92.1 288 7 Tom Brady, QB NWE 241 156 64.7 1724 7.15 48 12 2 7 99.0 287 8 Drew Brees, QB NOR 159 110 69.2 1400 8.81 58 13 2 4 118.4 280 9 Joe Flacco, QB BAL 225 145 64.4 1674 7.44 72 11 5 10 93.8 279 10 Tony Romo, QB DAL 165 96 58.2 1341 8.13 80 6 4 9 86.5 268

 

[bucsbaby]

He's passing lots. The TDs will come.

 

[AllVolUT]

The TDs will come. However, those expecting an increase on last year's numbers might be disappointed. Rivers threw 34 TDs off of 478 attempts in 2008. Without crunching the numbers, I can guarantee that was far and away the best TD-Pass attempt ratio.

In 2008, 7.1% of Rivers' passes went for TDs.

In 2007, 4.6% of Rivers' passes went for TDs.

In 2006, 4.8% of Rivers' passes went for TDs.

A natural regression to the mean was in the cards. That being said, I definitely expect his TD production over 2009 increase over the last two-thirds of the season.

JMO.

 

[Heep]

He has 1 rushing td too so technically he has 8 tds. Ive been very happy with his production. He has been consistent and is on pace for 4800+ yards, 26 tds. Id take that...

 

[Ministry of Pain]

What kind of production are you looking for? What is your measuring stick?

 

[knowledge dropper]

He is going to be this week

 

[Black]

I was surprised to find him ranked 11th for average points in my league. I think that's due to alot of QBs having above average seasons so far.

He has a good schedule coming up, but the line is not helping, and the line is also killing the running game. They are not pounding LT (yet?) and did not use Sproles much either vs. DEN. I love his WR and know he can sling it, but the line needs to help.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

What kind of production are you looking for? What is your measuring stick?

My measuring stick is a starting QB that I can leave plugged in and can win games for me.So, excluding the week 5 bye:week 1, down, loss - 13.5week 2, up, win - 27.0week 3, down, loss - 16.5week 4, up, win - 25.6week 6, down, loss - 12.6I really think he will have a good game vs KC, but I'd like to know if other owners think about whether he can be a Top5 QB for the rest of the year, because that's really what I'm looking for.I think I knew his numbers were a little skewed last year by one big game and tons of TD's, but I suppose I was acting on a hunch, taht he was ready to break out even further, and that SD's run game would be in decline (which it has been) and VJax would be on the rise (which he has been), the TD's just haven't been coming. In fact, it's looked to me like SD's been passing the ball up and down the field, just puttering out near the red zone.

 

[meatwad1]

Rivers is 6th in passing yards, right near Payton Manning's pace.

Keep in mind that Rivers is 6th in passing yards despite having his bye week already. Everyone ahead of him except for Manning has not had their bye week yet, and hence has played more games.

Ok, right, actually in pypg he's 3rd - he's piling up yards, but few TD's and lots of sacks and 3 lost fumbles:RK PLAYER TEAM ATT COMP PCT YDS YDS/A LONG TD INT SACK RATE YDS/G 1 Peyton Manning, QB IND 181 133 73.5 1645 9.09 80 12 4 2 114.1 329 2 Ben Roethlisberger, QB PIT 207 150 72.5 1887 9.12 52 10 6 16 104.5 315 3 Philip Rivers, QB SDG 183 108 59.0 1519 8.30 81 7 3 15 91.8 304 4 Matt Schaub, QB HOU 219 143 65.3 1810 8.27 72 14 5 10 102.7 302 5 Aaron Rodgers, QB GNB 164 106 64.6 1456 8.88 62 8 2 25 104.1 291 6 Kurt Warner, QB ARI 201 138 68.7 1441 7.17 40 8 5 10 92.1 288 7 Tom Brady, QB NWE 241 156 64.7 1724 7.15 48 12 2 7 99.0 287 8 Drew Brees, QB NOR 159 110 69.2 1400 8.81 58 13 2 4 118.4 280 9 Joe Flacco, QB BAL 225 145 64.4 1674 7.44 72 11 5 10 93.8 279 10 Tony Romo, QB DAL 165 96 58.2 1341 8.13 80 6 4 9 86.5 268

That chart illustrates your problem quite nicely...this year there are pretty much ten qbs who are neck and neck, Rivers is doing good, but in most leagues this year everybody has a decent qb, so there ins't much of an advantage from week to week. I would be looking to shore up other positions on your roster like wr and rb. Now might be the time to trade depth for a weekly stud. Also, it goes without saying that KC sucks,but they still have to play the game. Lets face it, SD is on a downward trend...there is a lot of negativity surrounding that team right now. I would not be surprised to see a tight game in Arrowhead with KC pulling it out. Remember that people thought at one time this year that the Titans, Redskins, and Panthers would actually be good...it doesn't take that much for the wheels to fall off and SD is sort of teetering on that edge. I would not peg Rivers as top 5 for the rest of the season, looking at the rest of the league. I mean really, is he going to outproduce Brees? Manning? Brady? Shaub? Rothlisberger? Those are five right there that I would think he has little chance to pass. I could probably name 7 more that could finish equal or better.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Lets face it, SD is on a downward trend...there is a lot of negativity surrounding that team right now.

While this is true, it should help Rivers' fantasy numbers. The Chargers' defense can't stop anybody, and the OL isn't opening any holes in the running game. (It's not pass-blocking well either, but it's easier to throw the ball without blocking than to run it.)As a result, the Chargers generally have no choice by midway through the second quarter but to start airing it out. That's why Rivers has so many passing yards, and if the Chargers continue to play poorly, I don't think that will change.They will have to start scoring touchdowns in the red zone, but with Jackson, Gates, and Floyd all excellent red zone targets, that really should start to happen.As the Chargers' season falls apart in the W-L column, their pass-run ratio should continue to be high, and Rivers should have a good fantasy season. (I wasn't as high as most on Rivers as a fantasy QB before the season, but that's because I expected the pass-run ratio to drop quite a bit from last year. That's not happening, though, and LT's loss is Rivers' gain.)

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I own Rivers in a bunch of leagues and just noticed this last week...

In leagues that aren't just measuring the QB, but the passing game as a whole he's suffering:

In 4pt TD leagues he's 10th, but drops to 12th in my 6pt TD leagues

In the 4pt league where sack yardage counts against the QB, he's still #12

And in the league where both sack yardage and passer rating gets factored in he's #14

 

[Pat Patriot]

Lets face it, SD is on a downward trend...there is a lot of negativity surrounding that team right now.

While this is true, it should help Rivers' fantasy numbers. The Chargers' defense can't stop anybody, and the OL isn't opening any holes in the running game. (It's not pass-blocking well either, but it's easier to throw the ball without blocking than to run it.)As a result, the Chargers generally have no choice by midway through the second quarter but to start airing it out. That's why Rivers has so many passing yards, and if the Chargers continue to play poorly, I don't think that will change.They will have to start scoring touchdowns in the red zone, but with Jackson, Gates, and Floyd all excellent red zone targets, that really should start to happen.As the Chargers' season falls apart in the W-L column, their pass-run ratio should continue to be high, and Rivers should have a good fantasy season. (I wasn't as high as most on Rivers as a fantasy QB before the season, but that's because I expected the pass-run ratio to drop quite a bit from last year. That's not happening, though, and LT's loss is Rivers' gain.)

After last weeks game in which Norv Turner called 3 straight runs right up the gut from the 5 with no success, I think they will be looking for Rivers to pass them into the endzone when in the red zone going forward.

 

[MCguidance]

Lets face it, SD is on a downward trend...there is a lot of negativity surrounding that team right now.

While this is true, it should help Rivers' fantasy numbers. The Chargers' defense can't stop anybody, and the OL isn't opening any holes in the running game. (It's not pass-blocking well either, but it's easier to throw the ball without blocking than to run it.)As a result, the Chargers generally have no choice by midway through the second quarter but to start airing it out. That's why Rivers has so many passing yards, and if the Chargers continue to play poorly, I don't think that will change.They will have to start scoring touchdowns in the red zone, but with Jackson, Gates, and Floyd all excellent red zone targets, that really should start to happen.As the Chargers' season falls apart in the W-L column, their pass-run ratio should continue to be high, and Rivers should have a good fantasy season. (I wasn't as high as most on Rivers as a fantasy QB before the season, but that's because I expected the pass-run ratio to drop quite a bit from last year. That's not happening, though, and LT's loss is Rivers' gain.)

After last weeks game in which Norv Turner called 3 straight runs right up the gut from the 5 with no success, I think they will be looking for Rivers to pass them into the endzone when in the red zone going forward.

I hope it's to Gates I do think that call for Sproles to punch it in last week was a bad one, IMO.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

As was mentioned earlier in this thread Rivers is currently on pace to finish with 4900 yards and 26 TDs. Expecting MORE than that is a bit absurd for any QB in the history of the league.

Like others have said the only reason he doesn't appear to be doing incredibly (which he is) is because there are so many QBs doing incredibly this year. What you should be hoping for is for Rivers to continue his current production, not increase it. Because even if he just continues his current production he will finish as a top 3 QB. We're not going to have 11 quarterbacks throw for 5000 yards and 30 TDs this year, most of these guys are going to fall off at some point.

 

[Brewzers]

In my league, interceptions and fumbles lost are both -3 pts, however, pass/run/rec TDs are +6 pts. So far, Rivers has 6 turnovers (3 Ints & 3 FLs and 8 TDs). He is 14th overall QB and 13th sorted on avg pts. Its great he is on pace for 4800 yds and 26 TDs, thats the part I expect. He is also on pace for 19 turnovers (I'll add that he is extremely lucky not to have more turnovers) and thats the surprising part. I'd like to see more consistency and better ball security from Rivers.

 

[RBM]

I do think that call for Sproles to punch it in last week was a bad one, IMO.

Horrible. Just like the call to end the Ravens game a few weeks ago where Ray Lewis destroyed him behind the line.What are they thinking calling a running play between the tackles for Sproles in a short yardage situation? I mean how can ya think thats a good idea

 

[Black]

I do think that call for Sproles to punch it in last week was a bad one, IMO.

Horrible. Just like the call to end the Ravens game a few weeks ago where Ray Lewis destroyed him behind the line.What are they thinking calling a running play between the tackles for Sproles in a short yardage situation? I mean how can ya think thats a good idea

Oh man, as a Chargers fan, just reading that depresses me. Will Norm figure this out or are we just hoping for Cowher at this point?

 

[MCguidance]

I do think that call for Sproles to punch it in last week was a bad one, IMO.

Horrible. Just like the call to end the Ravens game a few weeks ago where Ray Lewis destroyed him behind the line.What are they thinking calling a running play between the tackles for Sproles in a short yardage situation? I mean how can ya think thats a good idea

Oh man, as a Chargers fan, just reading that depresses me. Will Norm figure this out or are we just hoping for Cowher at this point?

My only guess is trying to catch the defense on their heels by presenting a pass formation and then running a rushing play. Either way, way too many other options to get cute IMO.

 

[Tau837]

I do think that call for Sproles to punch it in last week was a bad one, IMO.

Horrible. Just like the call to end the Ravens game a few weeks ago where Ray Lewis destroyed him behind the line.What are they thinking calling a running play between the tackles for Sproles in a short yardage situation? I mean how can ya think thats a good idea

Oh man, as a Chargers fan, just reading that depresses me. Will Norm figure this out or are we just hoping for Cowher at this point?

Cowher won't be going to San Diego. He's a Marty guy. Which is why he won't be going to Washington either. My guess is he goes to Carolina if Fox is fired. If Norv gets fired, I'd hope for Shanahan or Gruden.

 

[Tau837]

I do think that call for Sproles to punch it in last week was a bad one, IMO.

Horrible. Just like the call to end the Ravens game a few weeks ago where Ray Lewis destroyed him behind the line.What are they thinking calling a running play between the tackles for Sproles in a short yardage situation? I mean how can ya think thats a good idea

Oh man, as a Chargers fan, just reading that depresses me. Will Norm figure this out or are we just hoping for Cowher at this point?

My only guess is trying to catch the defense on their heels by presenting a pass formation and then running a rushing play. Either way, way too many other options to get cute IMO.

Nope. In these instances, the Chargers were not lined up in passing formation, they were in short yardage running formation with associated personnel. I think they would have had a better chance had they wanted to run Sproles to do so from a passing formation.

 

[MCguidance]

Happy now?

 

[bucsbaby]

He's passing lots. The TDs will come.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Should've had 5 today. Gates and Chambers both dropped touchdowns.

 

[burgundy and gold]

Helluva performance! So does he bump Big Benny for a top 5 spot now? Either way, I ain't trading him!

 

[meatwad1]

Well...looks like I was wrong. The Chargers are not giving up.

 

[MCguidance]

Trying to get him from his owner now. I should have tried last week, but I have way too much WR depth, time to make a move.

 

[steelerfan1]

Trying to get him from his owner now. I should have tried last week, but I have way too much WR depth, time to make a move.

just traded benson for him today.