Pick one: Larry Johnson, Thomas Jones, K. Moreno, Ward, Addai (1 Viewer)

[Deuce'sWild]

There is a topic on Rbs available in the 3rd/4th round, but if you wait one more round, and grab a WR in the 3rd/4th, you can get one of these guys who may put up numbers that are pretty close to the 3rd/4th round backs like Grant, Thomas or Smith.

I think there is a lot of value here, with guys like LJ and T. Jones who have been big time performers in the past, and guys like Moreno and Ward who are relative unknowns coming into this year but have a lot of potential. Addai has done in the past, and was a top 10 pick last year before leaving a bitter taste in owners mouths in an injury ridden season, and now has a rookie 1st rd pick to deal with.

I think Moreno has the most upside here, but also the most risk as we don't know how McD will rotate the RBs in Denver.

Larry Johnson seems like the safest choice, as he doesn't have much competition for carries and is a former 1st round pick (not to mention a top 3 FF performer).

Let's assume NON PPR standard scoring REDRAFT league here.

Makes it very tempting to go WR, WR, WR and then RB, RB. Not sure I have the bawls to do that though.

 

[puckalicious]

LJ

Jones

Moreno

Ward

That's my order. LJ will put up big numbers if he stays healthy/no suspensions. Might not get 300+ carries like years past but the safest of the 3 IMO. If Jones was not holding out, and on the wrong side of 30, I'd put him first. I like LJ to get more TDs.

Moreno and Ward are a little lower IMO and are susceptible to being bogged down in RBBC. Both are in new situations, and both are not the clear #1 on the team as of now. I'd argue Ward is probably considered the #1 but his situation is such that he could end up being #1b.

 

[RalphMouth]

Thomas Jones would be my pick here. The Jets will be running the ball a lot this year as they break in a rookie QB.

Their OL is better than average so I see an 1100 yds 6-7 TD type year from him. His contract squabble doesn't concern me.

Ward would be my next choice for most of the reasons I chose TJ. Tampa has a good OL and will focus more on the run than the pass.

Moreno would be my next choice & if you are in a PPR league you might bump him higher. He may not start right away but the 12th overall draft pick of 09 won't ride the pine.

I don't understand all the love for LJ. I'd love him to be my #3 RB but would not be all that thrilled if he were my #2 unless I have a stud like Peterson. KC will be throwing a lot and their defense stinks so they will be playing from behind.

Addai- I wish I could believe in him but this situation has RBBC written all over it.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I know that Thomas Jones has hit that dreaded age mark, but I can't believe he's going SO late now. I think the chance that he's got one more year in the tank makes him very good value at this spot. It's not like he showed any signs of wearing down last year (though granted, players often don't before they fall off the age cliff).

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

After a Top 5 (or close?) season, I don't know why Thomas Jones is falling so far in redrafts.

I mean, I guess I know the popular reasons:

- no Favre, opponents will stack the box

- Jones is old

- Leon Washington and the rookie will get touches

They're just not convincing me that a RB coming off a 1st round-worthy performance only has value in the 4th or 5th round.

 

[kenzen]

This is an excellent post and over and over I find these 5 backs lumped together in a round or still on the draft board. Before I give my opinion, here's the ADP of 22 mock or real drafts that I have been in or watched...all 12 team PPR redraft.

#20 Moreno 3.1

#23 Addai 4.2

#24 Johnson 4.7

#25 Jones 4.9

#28 Ward 5.3

And here is my ranking...

Addai

LJ

Ward

Moreno

Jones

Manning and his receivers wil open up space for Addai. Addai will get the goal carries. Addai will get drop off passes. Adai is the blocker and runs screens well. Last year was an aberration with Addai's injuries. Brown is a back-up unless Addai get's hurt. Brown help's Addai by giving him a breather. High powered offense, history of running success. Other than 2 games against Tennessee and 1 against Baltimore, nice schedule. Comeback season for Addai.

I put LJ and Addai neck to neck almost. LJ will get the carries, is the main back, is the GL back and 2 years ago rushed for 1700 and 17 TD's.

The bad news, Gonzo's gone, the All-pro O line is diminished, D's will stack the line, Bowe can be doubled..where's the hole ? With that said, I love KC's last 4 games of the fantasy season...Denver,Buffalo,Cleveland and Cincy..all HOME GAMES. Hee hee, if LJ's healthy he'll stack up the points when you need them most. ( make sure you have J Charles just in case)

Tampoon paid money to get Ward and watch him run. He's a faster , bigger, leaner version of Graham. He's like Graham and Dunn (ex-Tampoon) combined. The only reason I don't have him ranked higher is cause Graham might vulture goal line carries.

Moreno can be great and leads these fellows at the ADP position because...IF McDaniels features him as the RB and does not follow his committee school of thought...IF Buckhalter or Jordan don't take those goal line carries. If you like risks ( and sometimes risks win championships) you draft him early, hoping he will be the feature back. Denver has more backs for more situations then Paris Hilton has boyfriends. Everyone wants this years Forte, C Johnson or S Slaton, pick up Beanie Wells late in the draft. If you play it safe, you know Addai/Johnson/Ward will get carries...plus it's tough to run when your D puts you behind all the time.

Last year I drafted T Jones in many leagues as my sleeper and he helped me get to many playoffs and championships, so understand "I love the guy". But in high stakes leagues this is business, and too many people draft with their hearts and not the real evidence. Last year was last year. Favre is gone, the defenses will not respect the pass, they will stack the line (not so much if Clemens is in) They also plan to use Washington more this year and perhaps incorporate Shonn Greene.

-the Legend

 

[jurb26]

LJ is IMO one of the greatest fantasy values of all for 2009. This is a legitimate RB2 (with upside of a RB1) that can be had in the 4th round! That's the kind of stuff that leads to playoff runs. He is clearly ahead of the other guys listed on my board. He is the only guy on that list who is not at a huge risk to share his workload and we know he has put up monster seasons in the past.

After him it gets somewhat cloudy for me but I have the others ranked in tiers. Moreno and Addai being in the upper tier and Jones and Ward being in the lower tier.

Here are my rankings:

LJ

Moreno

Addai

Jones

Ward

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

LJ's schedule is pretty brutal until the last month or so. Maybe try to trade for him at mid-season if his owner is struggling.

Out of all these games, none looks like a good rushing matchup for the Chiefs to me:

09/13/09 at Baltimore Ravens 12:00 PM CBS

09/20/09 Oakland Raiders 12:00 PM CBS

09/27/09 at Philadelphia Eagles 12:00 PM CBS

10/04/09 New York Giants 12:00 PM FOX

10/11/09 Dallas Cowboys 12:00 PM FOX*

10/18/09 at Washington Redskins 12:00 PM CBS

10/25/09 San Diego Chargers 12:00 PM CBS*

11/01/09 Bye

11/08/09 at Jacksonville Jaguars 12:00 PM CBS

11/15/09 at Oakland Raiders 3:05 PM CBS*

11/22/09 Pittsburgh Steelers 12:00 PM CBS#

11/29/09 at San Diego Chargers 3:05 PM CBS#

But then the last 5 all look good:

12/06/09 Denver Broncos 12:00 PM CBS#

12/13/09 Buffalo Bills 12:00 PM CBS#

12/20/09 Cleveland Browns 12:00 PM CBS#

12/27/09 at Cincinnati Bengals 12:00 PM CBS#

01/03/10 at Denver Broncos 3:15 PM CBS#

 

[kenzen]

When this post first started, Larry Johnson was leading the voting, then Moreno led, then Johnson a few days ago, now Moreno again. My post about 3 or 4 up gives my reason...any other input. I keep seeing these guys next to each other...and one could add Beanie Wells and Fast Willie Parker to get real complicated...

 

[uwftbl]

When this post first started, Larry Johnson was leading the voting, then Moreno led, then Johnson a few days ago, now Moreno again. My post about 3 or 4 up gives my reason...any other input. I keep seeing these guys next to each other...and one could add Beanie Wells and Fast Willie Parker to get real complicated...

Can we add Wells and FWP? Also McFadden should be available here. I am selecting 12th in a 12 league and am seriously considering going WR/WR at the 12/13 because there is so much value at RB at 37 and 38.

 

[Defending Champs]

I took Moreno as the last pick in the 4th round. With the first pick in the 5th, I'm hoping Braylon Edwards bounces back!

 

[ATC1]

I can smell a Moreno hold out, which hurts his redraft value. Also, the question of how much he will be used in his first year, what the DEN offense will be like under McDaniels.

I would take LJ.

At the tail end of the draft. I can see taking two of megatron/Fitz/Moss/AJ instead of Portis, Jacobs, Gore. I don't think I would wait until the late 5th round for my RB2 though.

 

[Defending Champs]

I can smell a Moreno hold out, which hurts his redraft value. Also, the question of how much he will be used in his first year, what the DEN offense will be like under McDaniels. I would take LJ. At the tail end of the draft. I can see taking two of megatron/Fitz/Moss/AJ instead of Portis, Jacobs, Gore. I don't think I would wait until the late 5th round for my RB2 though.

As a bit of insurance, we took Reggie Bush later in the draft and then grabbed LaMont Jordan in the event Moreno pulls some funny business.

 

[ATC1]

I can smell a Moreno hold out, which hurts his redraft value. Also, the question of how much he will be used in his first year, what the DEN offense will be like under McDaniels. I would take LJ. At the tail end of the draft. I can see taking two of megatron/Fitz/Moss/AJ instead of Portis, Jacobs, Gore. I don't think I would wait until the late 5th round for my RB2 though.

As a bit of insurance, we took Reggie Bush later in the draft and then grabbed LaMont Jordan in the event Moreno pulls some funny business.

That's another problem. Tough to say who will be the handcuff. Buckhalter or Jordan?

 

[Sweet Love]

After a Top 5 (or close?) season, I don't know why Thomas Jones is falling so far in redrafts.I mean, I guess I know the popular reasons:- no Favre, opponents will stack the box- Jones is old- Leon Washington and the rookie will get touchesThey're just not convincing me that a RB coming off a 1st round-worthy performance only has value in the 4th or 5th round.

I like your post and reasoning, but to me, Jones' situation reeks of when Curtis Martin won the rushing title about 5 years ago and was a non-factor the following season. It was kind of a "hiccup" or "last gasp" year for Martin and while injuries did derail that following year (and subsequently his year), I fear the same is in store for Jones (along with much better competition for touches). Jones does have a lot less mileage than Martin did at this stage in his career, but if i am picking between him and LJ, I go with LJ...plus at this point, you have to corner three Jets RBs, whereas in KC, you just need LJ and Charles (who I am guessing you can get later than any of the three Jets RBs. If a strong statement is made in preseon/camp, that Jones will start and the others will be worked in, I may rethink my strategy as that Jets O line will make anyone look good at this point, 8 men in the box or not.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I may be the only one, but as we get closer to the season I don't think there is any way LJ, Moreno, or Jones make it past the 4th round and possibly even the 3rd......

 

[awesomeness]

People are really sleeping on Derick Ward in here.

 

[ATC1]

People are really sleeping on Derick Ward in here.

Reasoning to take him above the other three mentioned? TB is going to have issues this year. New system, new QB. This is the only RB coming into the season where the previous starter is still with the team and is surely going to be taking the GL duties.

 

[massraider]

This is actually an excellent topic, these are the kind of guys, that if you guess right, it makes your draft. I wonder if Beanie Wells shouldn't be in this mix as well.

Larry Johnson: A bit underrated, IMO. He showed last year he still has skills. I am a bit worried about the offense that Haley likes to run, seems like Charles fits that shotgun offense a lot better. But Edge and Hightower really don't fit that either, and they got enough looks from the pro set. Has a nice cheap handcuff, and is the lead dog. Like him more in standard (non-PPR) leagues.

Joseph Addai: I will probably be following this backfield during the preseason more than any. New head coach, new O-line coach, 1st round RB in the mix, and offensive line shakeup. I have no idea if Donald Brown is a stud or not, or of it will be a full blown RBBC or not. Addai is consistently going higher than Brown, but if Brown is better, he'll play more, won't he? Addai was a startable player as a RBBC before, but he scored 15 TDs that year. I doubt we can expect that again. Scary to pull the trigger on him over some of these guys.

Thomas Jones: I am nervous about his contract unhappiness, the two other backs there, and a rookie QB playing. I cannot see this offense being that strong, how many goalline looks will he get? And which handcuff do you draft? Wouldn't surprise me if Leon outscores him in PPR. I may be underrating him a bit, but I will let someone else take him.

Knowshon Moreno: Can he do everything better than the other backs in camp? I dunno. A RBBC is possible, but if he looks special in August, you have to like him near the top of this list. I am nervous about this team losing a great offensive mind in Shanahan, and going away from the ZBS. There's a lot of backs there, but if Moreno can catch the rock, you have to like him in PPR, especially with Orton at QB.



Derrick Ward: I think he's a lot better than Graham, and will be the lead dog. Tampa has a good line, and they will run the ball. The QB position is a concern, I think McCown starts the most games, but I dread the idea that if Tampa is out of the playoff picture, do they throw the rookie in there for the end of the season, and what does that do to the offense, when fantasy playoff time comes?

Right now, I would probably rank them:

LJ

Ward

Moreno

Addai

Jones

But I am ready to move players based on what happens in TC and preseason.

 

[Power Monster]

People are really sleeping on Derick Ward in here.

Please explain...

 

[Banger]

LJ is IMO one of the greatest fantasy values of all for 2009. This is a legitimate RB2 (with upside of a RB1) that can be had in the 4th round! That's the kind of stuff that leads to playoff runs. He is clearly ahead of the other guys listed on my board. He is the only guy on that list who is not at a huge risk to share his workload and we know he has put up monster seasons in the past.After him it gets somewhat cloudy for me but I have the others ranked in tiers. Moreno and Addai being in the upper tier and Jones and Ward being in the lower tier.Here are my rankings:LJMorenoAddaiJonesWard

Agree completely. LJ has some knucklehead risk but he appears to be doing/saying the right things. I think he has the most upside this year of that group. Moreno is interesting but it may take some time to adapt and they may bring him along slowly. Addai could be good or a backup. Jones I don't care about the age but just that they have Washington/Greene that will take carries/receptions and Ryan is going to do the 3 headed monster that worked so well in Baltimore last year. Ward could be interesting but I think Tampa is going to be lousy and Graham will cut into his action (although I think he'll be the primary back).

 

[awesomeness]

People are really sleeping on Derick Ward in here.

Please explain...

1)The Bucs signed Ward to a 4 year $17 million deal. A deal of that magnitude leads me to believe the Bucs plan on Ward being their starting runningback, or to get a significant majority of touches in a RBBC. 2) Ward has the least amount of competition for playing time of any of the RBs listed in this thread besides perhaps LJ. Ward's only competiton is Earnest Graham, who the Bucs were willing to use as a FB in favour of using Cadillac Williams and Warrick Dunn (who were both inferior RBs to Ward in this stage of their careers) as their RBs. 3) Ward is better than Graham in nearly all facets of the game. He's a better pass catcher, better at blocking, he's a better outside runner, and is arguably a better inside runner. 4) Bucs O coord has promised to use an agressive, run first offense this season. Quoting the Bucs O-coord here: ""We will be a successful team running the ball, I promise you that... We are going to be a one-cut, downhill, physical football team." Under Gruden, the Bucs never ran the ball more than 46% of the time. 5) Sure its possible that Derrick Ward loses goal line carries, but so will basically every other RB in this thread besides LJ. And at 5'11, 230lbs he's more than capable of taking goal line carries than basically any other RB in this thread.

 

[AllVolUT]

I can smell a Moreno hold out, which hurts his redraft value. Also, the question of how much he will be used in his first year, what the DEN offense will be like under McDaniels. I would take LJ. At the tail end of the draft. I can see taking two of megatron/Fitz/Moss/AJ instead of Portis, Jacobs, Gore. I don't think I would wait until the late 5th round for my RB2 though.

Are there any legs to the possible Moreno hold out rumor, or is this a sneaking suspicion?

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

After a Top 5 (or close?) season, I don't know why Thomas Jones is falling so far in redrafts.

I mean, I guess I know the popular reasons:

- no Favre, opponents will stack the box

- Jones is old

- Leon Washington and the rookie will get touches

They're just not convincing me that a RB coming off a 1st round-worthy performance only has value in the 4th or 5th round.

I like your post and reasoning, but to me, Jones' situation reeks of when Curtis Martin won the rushing title about 5 years ago and was a non-factor the following season. It was kind of a "hiccup" or "last gasp" year for Martin and while injuries did derail that following year (and subsequently his year), I fear the same is in store for Jones (along with much better competition for touches). Jones does have a lot less mileage than Martin did at this stage in his career, but if i am picking between him and LJ, I go with LJ...plus at this point, you have to corner three Jets RBs, whereas in KC, you just need LJ and Charles (who I am guessing you can get later than any of the three Jets RBs. If a strong statement is made in preseon/camp, that Jones will start and the others will be worked in, I may rethink my strategy as that Jets O line will make anyone look good at this point, 8 men in the box or not.

I do respect the opinion that Jones was running on fumes in 2008. But age/injury is the only legit reason I can see to avoid Jones. And I can understand anyone taking that position, based on his age (31).But as you said, their o-line is really good, and there will be many rushing attempts to go around. Jones's average will probably return to ~4.0 ypc but he could still get 1,200 on the ground easily.

Is the rookie going to be too good to hold off? Jones outperformed blue chipper Benson. For all we know, Green is another bust (or more generously, will need experience before he's called on to block for a rookie QB).

Is Washington going to demand more touches? In two seasons sharing the backfield with Jones, Washington has ~110-120 total rush/rec in each. I don't see a 5'8" back getting many more rushing attempts, especially inside the 5 yard line.

(PS. A comparable situation seems to me to be Tomlinson. His value as he slips in the 1st is being trumpeted, but he was injured last year, has MANY more carries over his career, and also has a scatback type and a young RB on his team. And this is a good value pick in the late 1st, while Jones in the 4th isn't? No way!)

 

[Defending Champs]

I can smell a Moreno hold out, which hurts his redraft value. Also, the question of how much he will be used in his first year, what the DEN offense will be like under McDaniels. I would take LJ. At the tail end of the draft. I can see taking two of megatron/Fitz/Moss/AJ instead of Portis, Jacobs, Gore. I don't think I would wait until the late 5th round for my RB2 though.

As a bit of insurance, we took Reggie Bush later in the draft and then grabbed LaMont Jordan in the event Moreno pulls some funny business.

That's another problem. Tough to say who will be the handcuff. Buckhalter or Jordan?

Throw Peyton Hillis in as a potential goal line back and you really have a fiasco. If Moreno get's into camp, and I think he will, all of these problems will go away. Moreno has a nose for the end zone, I don't see him being taken out on key downs. Though I did see him pull himself out on downs while at UGA, it was frustrating at times, I don't see an NFL coach allowing that to happen.

 

[moderated]

It's between LJ and Moreno, the others aren't even in the same ballpark IMO.

I'd take LJ, but if Moreno has a strong showing in the preseason and looks good i would probably gamble on him for upside reasons.

 

[ATC1]

I can smell a Moreno hold out, which hurts his redraft value. Also, the question of how much he will be used in his first year, what the DEN offense will be like under McDaniels.

I would take LJ.

At the tail end of the draft. I can see taking two of megatron/Fitz/Moss/AJ instead of Portis, Jacobs, Gore. I don't think I would wait until the late 5th round for my RB2 though.

Are there any legs to the possible Moreno hold out rumor, or is this a sneaking suspicion?

Still a while to go, but there have been recent reports that they are far from a deal. Add that Torain is running good and Marshall is complaining about a contract. http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_12920210

During an offseason when the iconic coach was fired, the young Pro Bowl quarterback was traded and the star wide receiver announced his displeasure by skipping the team's offseason rehabilitation program, why should the Broncos expect their No. 1 draft pick to show up for the first day of training camp?

The Broncos and Knowshon Moreno were so far away from an agreement Sunday afternoon, one NFL source said there was "no way" the rookie running back from Georgia would show up today for the unofficial start of training camp.

The Broncos made Moreno the first running back taken in the 2009 NFL draft when they selected him with the No. 12 overall choice. He is expected to eventually receive a five- or six-year deal with a guarantee of more than $12 million, so negotiations are not without complications.

As of Sunday night, only four of 32 first-round picks had reached agreements.

This is an offseason that began with the firing of Mike Shanahan, who had been not only coach but essentially in charge of the entire Broncos organization for 14 years. He was replaced by Josh McDaniels, who quickly had a falling-out with quarterback Jay Cutler, who forced his way to the Chicago Bears.

More recently, wide receiver Brandon Marshall walked out of the team's offseason program in protest of his contract that is to expire after he collects a $2.198 million salary this season. Marshall has said he would be at training camp, and because he is coming off hip surgery, the Broncos are counting on him to report today.