Picking 12th in a 12 team league.......... (1 Viewer)

[TD32]

Ive got 12. All the guys in my league swear by the 2 rb's early strategy. So, in no order, I can see the first 11 picks: LT, LJ, Alexander, Portis, Tiki, Rudi, Caddy, R. Brown, S. Jax, Edge and Jordan. So that leaves me at 12, with the top rb's left as Westbrook, Davis, McGahee, etc. I just cant see any of these guys as first round pick. What should I do? In our league, qb's get 6 for a td, so do I take Manning and a elite wr, and pray some late round rb's pan out? Manning and best rb left? Take 2 elite wr's, we have to start 3? Ive tried trading up, no one is interested. Whats your thoughts?

 

[Marc Levin]

Ive got 12. All the guys in my league swear by the 2 rb's early strategy. So, in no order, I can see the first 11 picks: LT, LJ, Alexander, Portis, Tiki, Rudi, Caddy, R. Brown, S. Jax, Edge and Jordan. So that leaves me at 12, with the top rb's left as Westbrook, Davis, McGahee, etc. I just cant see any of these guys as first round pick. What should I do? In our league, qb's get 6 for a td, so do I take Manning and a elite wr, and pray some late round rb's pan out? Manning and best rb left? Ive tried trading down, no one is interested. Whats your thoughts?

this verges on ACF.in your situation, I maximize value when drafting at the ends - take two RBs this turn and two WRs next turn. Then take best value for 5/6 (probably a QB and either a RB or WR)

Also consider searching the forum and finding some of the handcuffing RBs discussions we have been having - they mkay give you some ideas on how to play the back-to-back picks position

 

[dcgangstas]

I think that you should go RB-RB (say Cadillac Williams-Domanick Davis or Willis McGahee) at. 1.12 and 2.01. Yes, Steve Smith would be tempting, but I'd say that this is the way to go.

Then at 3.12 and 4.01 go WR-WR (Hines Ward-Darrell Jackson or Plaxico Burress).

 

[Marc Levin]

I think that you should go RB-RB (say Cadillac Williams-Domanick Davis or Willis McGahee) at. 1.12 and 2.01. Yes, Steve Smith would be tempting, but I'd say that this is the way to go.

Then at 3.12 and 4.01 go WR-WR (Hines Ward-Darrell Jackson or Plaxico Burress).

That is exactly how I play the bottom end of the first. I also like to wait at QB and take two at the 7/8 turn, and wait at TE and take two at the 9/10 turn unless a great TE presented himself at 7/8.

I just simply write off the first 8-10 TEs and 8-10 QBs from my list and I look below there to find which two guys I would be most content with. I then look to grab both of them.

My rationale with the first four rounds is that when you grab the RB10-14, there is a great chance one of your picks bust - if you take two, you maximize your hedge and make sure you have a solid starting RB - grabbing two WRs at 3/4 does the EXACT SAME THING. This year, I am really not 110% sold on CJ/SS as the top-2 WRs and I think there is an excellent chance of a top-5 WR falling to the bottom of the third (think TO, Moss, Harrison falling - if all your leaguemates are so RB crazy, they probably suck up the RB pool into the third round rather than snaking over to the WRs).

Also look to trade up from the bottom of the 3rd, if trading is possible, esp to get a top WR and use trading out of the 5/6 turn as the incentive - maybe swap 6th round picks. Use the trade dominator on FBGuys.com (shameless plug)

Anyway, while I don't love it, I don't hate the 1.12/2.01 turn for building a champ. team this year.

 

[MLBrandow]

If they grab RB RB first, then you should have no problem drafting around that.

Don't take the 12th and 13th best RBs, just take one and then grab the #1 QB.

Domanick Davis/Brian Westbrook + Torry Holt/Chad Johnson would also look mighty appealing. Then grab Carson Palmer/Marc Bulger + Donald Driver/Roy Williams on your 3/4.

There are so many great RBs late, and the 6pt PaTD would give you a huge advantage grabbing either Manning or Palmer early.

Also look at the underrated crop of solid starting RBs that aren't splitting any significant time:

Ron Dayne

Deuce McAllister

Corey Dillon

Curtis Martin

LenDale White

Ahman Green

DeAngelo Williams

Warrick Dunn

Dominic Rhodes

That's almost a dozen guys that can easily be had in Rds 3-6 that are all underrated for their expected production.

Another couple sleeper RBs that could emerge big:

Maurice Drew

Lee Suggs

Marion Barber III

While it is not wise to gamble on these guys as your RB1/2 when picking from the middle of the round, being on the end gives you a huge advantage, especially this year and especially given the early surge for double RBs in your league.

If a Tier1.5 back doesn't fall to you on the turn (CW, Jordan, Rudi, etc), I'd grab Manning + Steve Smith/Torry Holt and not look back.

From about your position to the middle of the 5th round, there really won't be a big difference in RB production IMO, certainly not enough to justify picking 2 middle-of-the-pack RBs over #1QB+#1WR.

In other years it would be different, but there's such a sharp dip after the elite QB/WRs are gone from top-tier production to marginal production, and there is no real drop-off from Tier-3 RBs all the way into the 6th round. Great year to be a

 

[renesauz]

It's easy to justify taking a top QB or WR in this spot, but in NO WAY can you afford to skip RB there...you have to take at least one, or you'll be in real trouble to put any points into the RB slot of your weekly roster. After all, it will be another 22 picks before you get another shot.

Being 12th this year is not a disaster, and there's JUST enough depth at RB that you can wait until the 3/4 turn to take your 2nd....just don't take the chance at finding enough quality there for 1 and 2!

 

[Marc Levin]

It's easy to justify taking a top QB or WR in this spot, but in NO WAY can you afford to skip RB there...you have to take at least one, or you'll be in real trouble to put any points into the RB slot of your weekly roster. After all, it will be another 22 picks before you get another shot.

Being 12th this year is not a disaster, and there's JUST enough depth at RB that you can wait until the 3/4 turn to take your 2nd....just don't take the chance at finding enough quality there for 1 and 2!

and you HAVE TO hit on your RB1 if you take only 1 RB at the 1/2 turn. that's why it's betta to go for two rbs - one will probably hit, and you STILL can get quality WRs at the 3/4 turn. Allow some other fool to grab a QB early this year - there is so MUCH depth at the position that it is incumbent on the shark to wait rather than reach for one at the bottom of the first/top of the second. The WR pool, OTOH has some steep drop-offs. If you go off RB at the 1/2 turn, go for a WR.

 

[Stingdiddy]

I'm in the exact same situation in my league. I'm not going to sweat my situation just yet. There's alot of things that are going to happen between now and draft time. Also, there's a good chance that one of the owners in your league have already fallen in love with S. Smith, P. Manning or even T. Owens. One of the top 11 you listed will slip to 12...somehow, some way.

Edit to add that I'm viewing the QB position almost as I view the kicker position. There's not a big difference between #1 and #12. I won't draft a QB until round 7/8...until then, I'm all about RB's and WR's...

 

[Marc Levin]

Edit to add that I'm viewing the QB position almost as I view the kicker position.  There's not a big difference between #1 and #12.  I won't draft a QB until round 7/8...until then, I'm all about RB's and WR's...

I'm not so sure abou that. I think Manning is a bit above the competition purely b/c of his longevity in the top-5.

That said, I don't see much diff between #2 and #10 - then a small drop, then not much diff. between #11 and #16/#17 - seriously.

I am waiting a long time this year for my QB and will be perfectly happy with something like a Brooks/Warner-Leinart combo heading into the season.

 

[Verbal Kint]

I think that you should go RB-RB (say Cadillac Williams-Domanick Davis or Willis McGahee) at. 1.12 and 2.01. Yes, Steve Smith would be tempting, but I'd say that this is the way to go.

Then at 3.12 and 4.01 go WR-WR (Hines Ward-Darrell Jackson or Plaxico Burress).

That is exactly how I play the bottom end of the first. I also like to wait at QB and take two at the 7/8 turn, and wait at TE and take two at the 9/10 turn unless a great TE presented himself at 7/8.

I just simply write off the first 8-10 TEs and 8-10 QBs from my list and I look below there to find which two guys I would be most content with. I then look to grab both of them.

My rationale with the first four rounds is that when you grab the RB10-14, there is a great chance one of your picks bust - if you take two, you maximize your hedge and make sure you have a solid starting RB - grabbing two WRs at 3/4 does the EXACT SAME THING. This year, I am really not 110% sold on CJ/SS as the top-2 WRs and I think there is an excellent chance of a top-5 WR falling to the bottom of the third (think TO, Moss, Harrison falling - if all your leaguemates are so RB crazy, they probably suck up the RB pool into the third round rather than snaking over to the WRs).

Also look to trade up from the bottom of the 3rd, if trading is possible, esp to get a top WR and use trading out of the 5/6 turn as the incentive - maybe swap 6th round picks. Use the trade dominator on FBGuys.com (shameless plug)

Anyway, while I don't love it, I don't hate the 1.12/2.01 turn for building a champ. team this year.

These guys have ADPs at the end of round 2, not end of round 3. If you go RB/RB, your WR1 will likely be D-Jax. I'm not saying D-Jax & Driver aren't a solid combo, but expecting TO or Moss is unrealistic.

 

[John Facenda]

Ive got 12. All the guys in my league swear by the 2 rb's early strategy. So, in no order, I can see the first 11 picks: LT, LJ, Alexander, Portis, Tiki, Rudi, Caddy, R. Brown, S. Jax, Edge and Jordan. So that leaves me at 12, with the top rb's left as Westbrook, Davis, McGahee, etc. I just cant see any of these guys as first round pick. What should I do? In our league, qb's get 6 for a td, so do I take Manning and a elite wr, and pray some late round rb's pan out? Manning and best rb left? Take 2 elite wr's, we have to start 3? Ive tried trading up, no one is interested. Whats your thoughts?

All is not lost! I had the same position a few years ago, and ended up winning my league. I took 2 RB's with my first and second round picks, then went WR/WR in 3 and 4. Got J. Lewis and T. Henry, and T. Holt and J. Horn. Lewis had his career year, and Holt and Horn were solid as well. Although you don't get the "sexy" picks, I think this strategy is the way to go.

 

[valhallan]

Agree with the previous comments of loading at RB, then WR.

But what about 2 QB leagues?

I have #10 in a 10-teamer and expect Manning to be gone. I'm not sure I could justify Palmer or Brady or any other QB at 10/11, but most of the top 10 QBs will be likely be gone by the time I get back to 30/31. I might just have to reach for someone. Definitely not a fan of the back-to-back picks in 2 QB leagues..

 

[Marc Levin]

These guys have ADPs at the end of round 2, not end of round 3. If you go RB/RB, your WR1 will likely be D-Jax. I'm not saying D-Jax & Driver aren't a solid combo, but expecting TO or Moss is unrealistic.

and the rest of my post:

if all your leaguemates are so RB crazy, they probably suck up the RB pool into the third round rather than snaking over to the WRs).

 

[Marc Levin]

Agree with the previous comments of loading at RB, then WR.But what about 2 QB leagues?

take 2 QBs - period.Then address all other areas as you wish - in 2 QB leagues, QBs, not RBs, are golden.

 

[valhallan]

Agree with the previous comments of loading at RB, then WR.

But what about 2 QB leagues? 

take 2 QBs - period.Then address all other areas as you wish - in 2 QB leagues, QBs, not RBs, are golden.

Normally, but our system is 4pt passing TDs and PPR. QB, RB, and WR are all relatively even in value, and actually VBD projects Manning at 19. But of course we all know our leaguemates aren't going to draft perfect VBD, so the question is do you reach for a QB, knowing most will be gone by the end of the 3rd round, or just wait for the value plays laying around later in the draft?

 

[Marc Levin]

Agree with the previous comments of loading at RB, then WR.

But what about 2 QB leagues? 

take 2 QBs - period.Then address all other areas as you wish - in 2 QB leagues, QBs, not RBs, are golden.

Normally, but our system is 4pt passing TDs and PPR. QB, RB, and WR are all relatively even in value, and actually VBD projects Manning at 19. But of course we all know our leaguemates aren't going to draft perfect VBD, so the question is do you reach for a QB, knowing most will be gone by the end of the 3rd round, or just wait for the value plays laying around later in the draft?

I'd have at least one QB on my team at the 10/11 turn and if I went off QB in at the 1/2 turn, I'd go RB as the other and I'd grab another QB at the 3/4 turn.Forget VBD when drafting from the end - plan on reaching up and down because DVBD applies (dynamic VBD) - DVBD looks at what will be available when you pick next - not just what is most valuable now.

 

[Verbal Kint]

These guys have ADPs at the end of round 2, not end of round 3. If you go RB/RB, your WR1 will likely be D-Jax. I'm not saying D-Jax & Driver aren't a solid combo, but expecting TO or Moss is unrealistic.

and the rest of my post:

if all your leaguemates are so RB crazy, they probably suck up the RB pool into the third round rather than snaking over to the WRs).

I read the whole post, but even if everyone goes RB crazy, I see very little likelihood that these guys drop a whole round unless its a public yahoo league.

 

[Marc Levin]

These guys have ADPs at the end of round 2, not end of round 3. If you go RB/RB, your WR1 will likely be D-Jax. I'm not saying D-Jax & Driver aren't a solid combo, but expecting TO or Moss is unrealistic.

and the rest of my post:

if all your leaguemates are so RB crazy, they probably suck up the RB pool into the third round rather than snaking over to the WRs).

I read the whole post, but even if everyone goes RB crazy, I see very little likelihood that these guys drop a whole round unless its a public yahoo league.

I don't think it will "for sure" happen, but given the number of owners who go RB-RB-RB, and the number that will take a QB or two, I could see one of the guys I have rated top-5, but others don't, dropping. All depends on how the league drafts - I am in several leagues where three QBs will go in the first three rounds no matter what, and three other owners will take RBX3 to start no matter what - in those leagues, I know that one of my top-6 WRs (Moss, Harrison, Owens, Holt, SSmith , CJohn) will fall to the bottom of the third - or at least to the 3.10.Not saying "plan" on it, but look for it.

 

[Verbal Kint]

These guys have ADPs at the end of round 2, not end of round 3. If you go RB/RB, your WR1 will likely be D-Jax. I'm not saying D-Jax & Driver aren't a solid combo, but expecting TO or Moss is unrealistic.

and the rest of my post:

if all your leaguemates are so RB crazy, they probably suck up the RB pool into the third round rather than snaking over to the WRs).

I read the whole post, but even if everyone goes RB crazy, I see very little likelihood that these guys drop a whole round unless its a public yahoo league.

I don't think it will "for sure" happen, but given the number of owners who go RB-RB-RB, and the number that will take a QB or two, I could see one of the guys I have rated top-5, but others don't, dropping. All depends on how the league drafts - I am in several leagues where three QBs will go in the first three rounds no matter what, and three other owners will take RBX3 to start no matter what - in those leagues, I know that one of my top-6 WRs (Moss, Harrison, Owens, Holt, SSmith , CJohn) will fall to the bottom of the third - or at least to the 3.10.Not saying "plan" on it, but look for it.

OK, just wanted to be clear on the likelihood.

 

[jestertj]

I would probably go Manning and top WR on your board (TO?). You might as well have the top guy at 2 other positions and hope 1 or 2 RBs pan out for you. The top ten always has at least a 50% shakeup from the prior season.

 

[Marc Levin]

I would probably go Manning and top WR on your board (TO?). You might as well have the top guy at 2 other positions and hope 1 or 2 RBs pan out for you. The top ten always has at least a 50% shakeup from the prior season.

wanna hear something funny?Neither Owens nor Manning have EVER finished as the #1 att heir positions.

Doesn't defeat the concept - they always finish top-5, and usually top-3. For Owens, he's been #1 in PPG, but he's suffered injuries/benching/save for playoffs benching

 

[joffer]

I would probably go Manning and top WR on your board (TO?). You might as well have the top guy at 2 other positions and hope 1 or 2 RBs pan out for you. The top ten always has at least a 50% shakeup from the prior season.

wanna hear something funny?Neither Owens nor Manning have EVER finished as the #1 att heir positions.

careful, QB ranking depends a ton on the league scoring.

 

[TD32]

I would probably go Manning and top WR on your board (TO?). You might as well have the top guy at 2 other positions and hope 1 or 2 RBs pan out for you. The top ten always has at least a 50% shakeup from the prior season.

wanna hear something funny?Neither Owens nor Manning have EVER finished as the #1 att heir positions.

Doesn't defeat the concept - they always finish top-5, and usually top-3. For Owens, he's been #1 in PPG, but he's suffered injuries/benching/save for playoffs benching

When Manning set the td record, who finished ahead of him at qb?

 

[Marc Levin]

I would probably go Manning and top WR on your board (TO?). You might as well have the top guy at 2 other positions and hope 1 or 2 RBs pan out for you. The top ten always has at least a 50% shakeup from the prior season.

wanna hear something funny?Neither Owens nor Manning have EVER finished as the #1 att heir positions.

careful, QB ranking depends a ton on the league scoring.

true - I am basing this on 4pt/pass TD - in 6 pt/pass TD, Manning has probably finished #1 over C-Pepp a couple times.Owens, OTOH, only loses ground in PPR leagues.

 

[Warhogs]

If you are sure teams will hoard RB I personally would think long and hard about taking RB-RB and just pick your top 2. If you are right and teams hoard RBs they may just as well go RB-RB-RB leaving you to select two starting RB that are ranked in the high 20s and low 30s. This would be especially true if your league plays a flex spot.

 

[Marc Levin]

I would probably go Manning and top WR on your board (TO?). You might as well have the top guy at 2 other positions and hope 1 or 2 RBs pan out for you. The top ten always has at least a 50% shakeup from the prior season.

wanna hear something funny?Neither Owens nor Manning have EVER finished as the #1 att heir positions.

Doesn't defeat the concept - they always finish top-5, and usually top-3. For Owens, he's been #1 in PPG, but he's suffered injuries/benching/save for playoffs benching

When Manning set the td record, who finished ahead of him at qb?

C-Pepp: 166 pts versus 150 pts. C-Pepp had 39 passing TDs, 4717 pass yards, 2 rushing TDs and 400+ rush yards - that's how he passed Manning. - giving Manning two more points per 49 TDs, he becomes #1.

 

[oswizzle]

take C.Taylor and K.Jones

 

[jestertj]

I would probably go Manning and top WR on your board (TO?). You might as well have the top guy at 2 other positions and hope 1 or 2 RBs pan out for you. The top ten always has at least a 50% shakeup from the prior season.

wanna hear something funny?Neither Owens nor Manning have EVER finished as the #1 att heir positions.

careful, QB ranking depends a ton on the league scoring.

 

[BigTex]

 

[Stingdiddy]

take C.Taylor and K.Jones

I'm kind of on the C. Taylor bandwagon as well. It would be a "reach" to take Chester with the 12th or 13th pick in the draft, but, I think he will perform to that level. We'll find out more in the preseason...obviously.

 

[zanti8]

if the 12 are gone you listed at the begining of the thread i would go :

rb westbrook (or the highest rb left on your chart)

qb manning

 

[Purpulhippo999]

if all the WRs are left, get fitzgerald and steve smith

then later get a guy like matt hasselbeck and domanick davis

 

[leathermannine]

the only year I have had the 12 and 13 pick I took Manning and Harrison. Harrison had 143 catches that year and I won the league somehow. The only other player I drafted and kept the whole season was Shockey (guess he didn't get hurt). Harrison would not be the best option at 13, but I love the QB/WR combo if you can get it.

A lot of it comes down to knowing the guys in your leagues' tendancies the first 2-3 rounds. If you take Manning at 12 you may start a run for Brady or if you took 2 RBs, someone else may take an RB when they wanted a WR - leaving you a better WR the next round.

This year I have LJ as my one keeper, I don't care what pick I get, I already have the best player.

 

[dickey moe]

I think it would be very difficult not to pick up Manning at the turn if he's still there, especially in a 6pt/TD passing league.

 

[Marc Levin]

if all the WRs are left, get fitzgerald and steve smith

then later get a guy like matt hasselbeck and domanick davis

stud-WR is much more difficult to work from the 12 hole than, say, the 9 hole The problem is waiting SO long at RB, that you almost HAVE TO then take four RBs with your next 6 picks in order to maximize you ability to hit on a couple of them.

 

[bonesman]

I think it would be very difficult not to pick up Manning at the turn if he's still there, especially in a 6pt/TD passing league.

i think QB is waaaaaaaay too deep this year to grab Manning @ 12/13... i'd go for a WR before a QB if i strayed away from RBs

 

[Verbal Kint]

if all the WRs are left, get fitzgerald and steve smith

then later get a guy like matt hasselbeck and domanick davis

stud-WR is much more difficult to work from the 12 hole than, say, the 9 hole The problem is waiting SO long at RB, that you almost HAVE TO then take four RBs with your next 6 picks in order to maximize you ability to hit on a couple of them.

And DD won't be there at the end of round 3, unless there is more bad news about the knee.

 

[BlueDredSo]

Also look at the underrated crop of solid starting RBs that aren't splitting any significant time:

Ron Dayne

Deuce McAllister

Corey Dillon

Curtis Martin

LenDale White

Ahman Green

DeAngelo Williams

Warrick Dunn

Dominic Rhodes

That's almost a dozen guys that can easily be had in Rds 3-6 that are all underrated for their expected production.

What??? You're terribly mistaken on this one. I think ALL of these RB's will be splitting significant time.Ron Dayne - Tatum Bell

Deuce - Reggie

Dillon - Maroney

Martin's getting old and Mangini doesn't trust him as much as Herm

White - Brown, Henry?

Green - Gado, etc.

Williams - Foster

Dunn - Duckett

Rhodes - Addai

Also look at the underrated crop of solid starting RBs that aren't splitting any significant time

I agree with the first part of this sentece: underrated, but completely disagree that they are solid starters not splitting significant time.

 

[geejoon]

I would not want to be 12th this year but since my luck is awful, I must prepare. I would definitely hold off on the QB. Although the 6pt TD is attractive dont let that sucker you into grabbing one early. Several replies have you grabbing the next two best RB. Well, that means already you are beat on the first two rounds of the draft. Doing this puts you behind significantly, unless you find a diamond in the ruff. Then you leave the top WR's and QB's to be picked by teams that have top RB's. Sure you might grab a RB from someone prepared to go RB, RB. I go into the draft with this frame of mind; I hope and prey that one of the RB's I want are there for me at 12 cause someone went Manning or thought that this year they would start WR. When it gets to me and that those RB's are gone I am determined to pick the top WR especially if you are getting 1pt per reception (not sure if you do or not) then I would either take an additional WR and lock up two of those three spots which will be hard for any team to outscore me there. This strategy could cause a WR frenzy among teams not wanting to lose a chance at one of the top 10 at that position. You would be surprised how many teams are planning to grab 1 RB and 1 WR with their first two picks. I admit that when it gets back to you there wont be much to pick from in the RB pool. So you may want to pick a QB with your third pick to get a head of the game there, followed by whats left of the RB. However, it may be better to go with plan B. Grab the top WR and the best available RB. In this scenario you have locked up a number one in the WR position and hopefully a RB with some value left, this would help even out the strength of your team. You should then look to lock up a top QB and posibbly another WR depending on what has been picked, you may want to lock up a top TE. If you could grab Gates, Heap, Shockey, McMichael, Crumpler of maybe even Witten here would be big. I didnt mention Gonzalez here because I am not high on him this year. Grabbing one of the top 3 I mentioned would be big here. The only exception would be to grab a RB if they had really good value here, which in that case I would wait on the QB cause the top guns may be gone and after that they are a dime a dozen.

So basically I would be hoping to have top players at WR and TE a workhorse RB, and possibly a top QB. Doesnt look too bad for number 12. Lets face it 12 sux this year so if you could come out with some top players and you dont chase the positions that are being drawn before you, you may just get lucky.

PS-In the later rounds lay it on the line and grab some sleepers with a lot of potential, especially at your weak spot RB. This in addition to your other picks may just make the difference.

Good Luck!!

 

[Verbal Kint]

if all the WRs are left, get fitzgerald and steve smith

then later get a guy like matt hasselbeck and domanick davis

stud-WR is much more difficult to work from the 12 hole than, say, the 9 hole The problem is waiting SO long at RB, that you almost HAVE TO then take four RBs with your next 6 picks in order to maximize you ability to hit on a couple of them.

I also believe that there will be much more turnover in the top WR tier. There are too many question marks surrounding Fitz/Boldin (# of targets regress to the mean), Steve Smith (# of targets regress to the mean), Holt (no Martz) Moss (injury, motivation, new QB) & Harrison (age). While I think any of these guys could be top 3, I wouldn't be suprised if any one of them dropped out of the top 10.

 

[wannabee]

if all the WRs are left, get fitzgerald and steve smith

then later get a guy like matt hasselbeck and domanick davis

stud-WR is much more difficult to work from the 12 hole than, say, the 9 hole The problem is waiting SO long at RB, that you almost HAVE TO then take four RBs with your next 6 picks in order to maximize you ability to hit on a couple of them.

I also believe that there will be much more turnover in the top WR tier. There are too many question marks surrounding Fitz/Boldin (# of targets regress to the mean), Steve Smith (# of targets regress to the mean), Holt (no Martz) Moss (injury, motivation, new QB) & Harrison (age). While I think any of these guys could be top 3, I wouldn't be suprised if any one of them dropped out of the top 10.

I agree with this post. I think this will be a very difficult year to go WR/WR irregardless of your draft position. I think this year that the WRs at the top are there out of default. There is no STUD WR in the mold of Rice, TO (as a niner), etc. As a result of the dropoff in RB talent, we are reaching for WRs too high. I think RB/WR is much more reasonable. Holt as a WR in second helps your team much more than either WR/RB or WR/WR. I much prefer Jordan (for example)/Holt than Fitz/Holt or even Fitz/Willis.My statements above are made, not as specific response to the 1.12/2.01 draft slot, but rather to the WR/WR philosophy.

 

[wharf rat]

Ive got 12. All the guys in my league swear by the 2 rb's early strategy. So, in no order, I can see the first 11 picks: LT, LJ, Alexander, Portis, Tiki, Rudi, Caddy, R. Brown, S. Jax, Edge and Jordan. So that leaves me at 12, with the top rb's left as Westbrook, Davis, McGahee, etc. I just cant see any of these guys as first round pick. What should I do? In our league, qb's get 6 for a td, so do I take Manning and a elite wr, and pray some late round rb's pan out? Manning and best rb left? Take 2 elite wr's, we have to start 3? Ive tried trading up, no one is interested. Whats your thoughts?

Plug it into the Draft Dominator and take a look at a mock draft.

 

[Marc Levin]

What???    You're terribly mistaken on this one.  I think ALL of these RB's will be splitting significant time.

Ron Dayne - Tatum Bell One or the other wins the job - Dayne = Mike Anderson, Bell as "the man" = elite RB

Deuce - Reggie

Dillon - Maroney If Dillon is healthy, expect 300 carries from him

Martin's getting old and Mangini doesn't trust him as much as Herm

White - Brown, Henry?

Green - Gado, etc. If Green is actually able to return healthy he's the man with little significant competition - otherwise, it will prob. be Davenport/Gado splitting time

Williams - Foster

Dunn - Duckett complete and total fabrication - Duckett does NOT impact Dunn's carries/PT - he (and Vick) impact Dunn's GL TDs.

Rhodes - Addai one or the other wins out and is "the man" for Indie.  That "man" may switch mid-season, however

to most of your assertions re: playing time.See comments above

I also believe almost all of the other situations will level out - ie, if Deuce can go, he's the primary until he gets hurt again and Bush will see th efield plenty in "alternative" roles (like split out at WR). same with Foster - healthy Foster = guy who carries the ball 16-20 times per game.

 

[Marc Levin]

There is no STUD WR in the mold of Rice, TO (as a niner), etc.

I disagree - I see no reason why SS won't repeat or come close to his 2005 target and production numbers - he was doubled like a madman last year and still was huge - a viable #2 will only help him.I also believe that a healthy Carsopn Palmer = CJohn as the clearest cut #1 FF WR this year - questions about Palmer's health, however, are viable.

I see no way Harrison is not worth a high draft pick just b/c of his age (34 aint that old for WRs) - and you should EXPECT double-D TDs and 85-ish or more catches for near 1200 or over. That's a stud WR when you consider he rarely throws you garbage games (though his 5 garbage games in 2005 were the most he's had in quite a few years).

Not saying that makes the case for stud-WR - it doesn't - but i will agree with the idea that it is reasonable to believe there will not be a top crew of WRs that are clearly head and shoulders above the rest

You HAVE TO have that happen for stu-WR to work - drafting two of Harrinson, TO and Moss a few years back guaranteed you two-thirds of the top-3 WRs, which could have been worked into a huge advantage.

not this year

 

[Verbal Kint]

There is no STUD WR in the mold of Rice, TO (as a niner), etc.

I disagree - I see no reason why SS won't repeat or come close to his 2005 target and production numbers - he was doubled like a madman last year and still was huge - a viable #2 will only help him.I also believe that a healthy Carsopn Palmer = CJohn as the clearest cut #1 FF WR this year - questions about Palmer's health, however, are viable.

I see no way Harrison is not worth a high draft pick just b/c of his age (34 aint that old for WRs) - and you should EXPECT double-D TDs and 85-ish or more catches for near 1200 or over. That's a stud WR when you consider he rarely throws you garbage games (though his 5 garbage games in 2005 were the most he's had in quite a few years).

Not saying that makes the case for stud-WR - it doesn't - but i will agree with the idea that it is reasonable to believe there will not be a top crew of WRs that are clearly head and shoulders above the rest

You HAVE TO have that happen for stu-WR to work - drafting two of Harrinson, TO and Moss a few years back guaranteed you two-thirds of the top-3 WRs, which could have been worked into a huge advantage.

not this year

I think the point is, for many years, it was TO, Moss & Harrison as the consensus top 3. This year, I don't think the top tier is even remotely clear cut. I would venture to say that Moss or TO could easily surpass Smith or CJ, and they are going a round or 2 later.

 

[Marc Levin]

You HAVE TO have that happen for stu-WR to work - drafting two of Harrinson, TO and Moss a few years back guaranteed you two-thirds of the top-3 WRs, which could have been worked into a huge advantage.

not this year

I think the point is, for many years, it was TO, Moss & Harrison as the consensus top 3. This year, I don't think the top tier is even remotely clear cut. I would venture to say that Moss or TO could easily surpass Smith or CJ, and they are going a round or 2 later.

didn't I say that?

 

[radballs]

There is no STUD WR in the mold of Rice, TO (as a niner), etc.

I disagree - I see no reason why SS won't repeat or come close to his 2005 target and production numbers - he was doubled like a madman last year and still was huge - a viable #2 will only help him.I also believe that a healthy Carsopn Palmer = CJohn as the clearest cut #1 FF WR this year - questions about Palmer's health, however, are viable.

I see no way Harrison is not worth a high draft pick just b/c of his age (34 aint that old for WRs) - and you should EXPECT double-D TDs and 85-ish or more catches for near 1200 or over. That's a stud WR when you consider he rarely throws you garbage games (though his 5 garbage games in 2005 were the most he's had in quite a few years).

Not saying that makes the case for stud-WR - it doesn't - but i will agree with the idea that it is reasonable to believe there will not be a top crew of WRs that are clearly head and shoulders above the rest

You HAVE TO have that happen for stu-WR to work - drafting two of Harrinson, TO and Moss a few years back guaranteed you two-thirds of the top-3 WRs, which could have been worked into a huge advantage.

not this year

I think the point is, for many years, it was TO, Moss & Harrison as the consensus top 3. This year, I don't think the top tier is even remotely clear cut. I would venture to say that Moss or TO could easily surpass Smith or CJ, and they are going a round or 2 later.

Usually about a half round later in most 12 team leagues I've drafted in this year.

 

[wannabee]

There is no STUD WR in the mold of Rice, TO (as a niner), etc.

I disagree - I see no reason why SS won't repeat or come close to his 2005 target and production numbers - he was doubled like a madman last year and still was huge - a viable #2 will only help him.I also believe that a healthy Carsopn Palmer = CJohn as the clearest cut #1 FF WR this year - questions about Palmer's health, however, are viable.

I see no way Harrison is not worth a high draft pick just b/c of his age (34 aint that old for WRs) - and you should EXPECT double-D TDs and 85-ish or more catches for near 1200 or over. That's a stud WR when you consider he rarely throws you garbage games (though his 5 garbage games in 2005 were the most he's had in quite a few years).

Not saying that makes the case for stud-WR - it doesn't - but i will agree with the idea that it is reasonable to believe there will not be a top crew of WRs that are clearly head and shoulders above the rest

You HAVE TO have that happen for stu-WR to work - drafting two of Harrinson, TO and Moss a few years back guaranteed you two-thirds of the top-3 WRs, which could have been worked into a huge advantage.

not this year

The point of the whole post, which you only quoted a small part, was that there is no sure WR1. If you look at most drafts going on now, there are three WRs that switch off as the first WR drafted (Fitz, Smith, and CJ) and a few with Holt going first. Back in the day when stud WR was viable, imo, was when you could have an anchor WR in the first round. Also, imo, the WRs4-10 (not in any order: Boldin, Holt, Chambers, Harrison, TO, Moss, and Harrison) each have as good of chance to be WR1 at the end of the season as each of the WR1-3 (Fitz, Smith, and CJ).

The point is that with this depth at WR, you do not have to draft a WR in first. In fact, if you do so, you leave a ton of value on the table. That was in part of the post you omitted. A first round RB and second round WR will out score the WR/RB or WR/WR. This is because you can get Harrison, Chambers or even Moss in the 3rd round. Whereas the WR dropoff is not steep this year through the first 10 WRs, the dropoff at RB is.

 

[wannabee]

There is no STUD WR in the mold of Rice, TO (as a niner), etc.

I disagree - I see no reason why SS won't repeat or come close to his 2005 target and production numbers - he was doubled like a madman last year and still was huge - a viable #2 will only help him.I also believe that a healthy Carsopn Palmer = CJohn as the clearest cut #1 FF WR this year - questions about Palmer's health, however, are viable.

I see no way Harrison is not worth a high draft pick just b/c of his age (34 aint that old for WRs) - and you should EXPECT double-D TDs and 85-ish or more catches for near 1200 or over. That's a stud WR when you consider he rarely throws you garbage games (though his 5 garbage games in 2005 were the most he's had in quite a few years).

Not saying that makes the case for stud-WR - it doesn't - but i will agree with the idea that it is reasonable to believe there will not be a top crew of WRs that are clearly head and shoulders above the rest

You HAVE TO have that happen for stu-WR to work - drafting two of Harrinson, TO and Moss a few years back guaranteed you two-thirds of the top-3 WRs, which could have been worked into a huge advantage.

not this year

The point of the whole post, which you only quoted a small part, was that there is no sure WR1. If you look at most drafts going on now, there are three WRs that switch off as the first WR drafted (Fitz, Smith, and CJ) and a few with Holt going first. Back in the day when stud WR was viable, imo, was when you could have an anchor WR in the first round. Also, imo, the WRs4-10 (not in any order: Boldin, Holt, Chambers, Harrison, TO, Moss, and Harrison) each have as good of chance to be WR1 at the end of the season as each of the WR1-3 (Fitz, Smith, and CJ).

The point is that with this depth at WR, you do not have to draft a WR in first. In fact, if you do so, you leave a ton of value on the table. That was in part of the post you omitted. A first round RB and second round WR will out score the WR/RB or WR/WR. This is because you can get Harrison, Chambers or even Moss in the 3rd round. Whereas the WR dropoff is not steep this year through the first 10 WRs, the dropoff at RB is.

Here is the ADPs to support my statements above:12 13 1 WR1 Steve Smith Car/9

17 17 0 WR2 Chad Johnson Cin/5

18 18 0 WR3 Terrell Owens Dal/3

19 19 0 WR4 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/9

20 20 0 WR5 Torry Holt StL/7

22 22 0 WR6 Randy Moss Oak/3

23 23 0 WR7 Marvin Harrison Ind/6

24 24 0 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9

29 29 0 WR9 Chris Chambers Mia/8

 

[Marc Levin]

There is no STUD WR in the mold of Rice, TO (as a niner), etc.

I disagree - I see no reason why SS won't repeat or come close to his 2005 target and production numbers - he was doubled like a madman last year and still was huge - a viable #2 will only help him.I also believe that a healthy Carsopn Palmer = CJohn as the clearest cut #1 FF WR this year - questions about Palmer's health, however, are viable.

I see no way Harrison is not worth a high draft pick just b/c of his age (34 aint that old for WRs) - and you should EXPECT double-D TDs and 85-ish or more catches for near 1200 or over. That's a stud WR when you consider he rarely throws you garbage games (though his 5 garbage games in 2005 were the most he's had in quite a few years).

Not saying that makes the case for stud-WR - it doesn't - but i will agree with the idea that it is reasonable to believe there will not be a top crew of WRs that are clearly head and shoulders above the rest

You HAVE TO have that happen for stu-WR to work - drafting two of Harrinson, TO and Moss a few years back guaranteed you two-thirds of the top-3 WRs, which could have been worked into a huge advantage.

not this year

The point of the whole post, which you only quoted a small part, was that there is no sure WR1. If you look at most drafts going on now, there are three WRs that switch off as the first WR drafted (Fitz, Smith, and CJ) and a few with Holt going first. Back in the day when stud WR was viable, imo, was when you could have an anchor WR in the first round. Also, imo, the WRs4-10 (not in any order: Boldin, Holt, Chambers, Harrison, TO, Moss, and Harrison) each have as good of chance to be WR1 at the end of the season as each of the WR1-3 (Fitz, Smith, and CJ).

The point is that with this depth at WR, you do not have to draft a WR in first. In fact, if you do so, you leave a ton of value on the table. That was in part of the post you omitted. A first round RB and second round WR will out score the WR/RB or WR/WR. This is because you can get Harrison, Chambers or even Moss in the 3rd round. Whereas the WR dropoff is not steep this year through the first 10 WRs, the dropoff at RB is.

but there was no clear cut #1 in the Harrison-Moss-TO years, either.I'd say it will be extremely rare for SS, CJohn or Fitz not to be the first pick in every draft this year. Some freek in SF or Oak might draft TO or Moss as the #1 WR, but in the vast a majority of drafts, those three will be the first three gone.

Your point was noted.