Picking 3rd and considering Portis (1 Viewer)

[LawFitz]

My mind says take SA and run, but my gut is screaming Portis...

Portis:

positives -

- younger, more explosive than SA

- former super stud in the Denver system

- struggled early in Wash, but seemed to click later last season

- Al Saunders installing my favorite RB offense

- o-line play improving

- better WR corps for Brunell (assuming the old man's got another year left)

- cheap/effective handcuff in Betts

negatives -

- tends to get nicked up a lot

Alexander:

positives -

- ultra consistent - has been a super stud for many seasons now

- durable - don't remember too many games missed

- solid overall offense and defense (both passing game and defense is better than Wash IMO)

- coach loves to use him extensively/exclusively

- much softer schedule

negatives -

- coming off a career year and big contract (will the motivation still be there)

- Superbowl loss hangover for the team?

- boring style of play - I've had him before and while the numbers are great, I'm just not a fan of watching him run

- Madden curse - silly, but the track record is scary

- loss of Hutch - will the o-line be as dominant and if not, how much does he falter?

This is a very, very tough call for me. I know most of you will think I'm crazy for not taking the MVP and his consistent production, but man my gut is haunting me right now.

ETA: redraft league w/2 starting RBs and 0.5 pts per reception.

 

[ruelvis]

i think this has been discussed in numerous other threads, but i'll say this:

if it's really killing you maybe you should trade down to 4th and let everyone else determine who you pick? OR look at their playoff schedules...

 

[Longshot88]

SA is a stud for sure...but this is a new year and I belive portis will be the better back this year.Hutch is a Big Loss IMO...dynasty Portis for sure

 

[LawFitz]

Any other positives/negatives that you guys think should be considered?

 

[thayman]

Since your basically even on the two, trade down a spot and take whoever is there.....

 

[Big Score]

Any other positives/negatives that you guys think should be considered?

When you've got RB's pretty even, I always check their rushing schedules to help in my decision.

 

[LawFitz]

Since your basically even on the two, trade down a spot and take whoever is there.....

Might sound lame, but I can't pull the trigger on the off chance that LT or LJ slips to #3. I've got those two in their own tier ahead of SA and CP.

 

[wannabee]

Since your basically even on the two, trade down a spot and take whoever is there.....

Might sound lame, but I can't pull the trigger on the off chance that LT or LJ slips to #3. I've got those two in their own tier ahead of SA and CP.

see if the guy at 1.04 would make a contingent trade assuming "your guy" is gone.

 

[Fantasy Strategist]

I don't think Alexander has ever missed a game...since he has been the starter anyway. Portis has missed games here and there on a pretty consistant basis. Schedule is definately in favor of Alexander both regular season and playoffs. Alexander's low side is what I feel Portis' high end is. You may be over thinking this. I don't think Brunell makes it thru the year either. That will surely play a huge part in his production. Seatle just seems to score a lot more points than Washington. Alexander almost always scores from the 5 yard line and in. They are not scared to run him 4 times from the 5 to do it either. I have had Portis the last couple years and they seem to struggle from the 1 quite often. The Skins TE's take away too many of those short TD's for my taste. The last couple years people have been really high on Duece and I just didn't see it. This is looking like the same thing to me. He may be number 4 overall but you could make the case for several other guys. A lot would depend on the scoring system. If nothing else there has to be several owners who would give up a lot to move up to 3...as has been mentioned by others. Just my thoughts on June 1st. I agree Alexander is far from exciting to watch...always running out of bounds...well actually last year he seemed to fight for the extra yards more than any other year. But that also keeps him healthy which is very important with the 3rd pick in my opinion. As everyone knows it's a lot easier to lose the league in round one than it is to win it.

 

[ExaltedOne]

If picks 1 and 2 haven't been made yet, there's still a strong chance that Shaun Alexander will be taken before your pick. I'd say wait until draft day. That way if LT or LJ fall to you you can still grab them up and if not you can trade down with someone who really loves Alexander. Even if it means dropping down past Portis, you'll get a lot more value that way.

 

[radballs]

You can't make a trade once you're on the clock?

 

[Franknbeans]

redraft: Alexander

dynasty: Portis

 

[nittanylion]

Alexander is the only back I'd take over Portis if I had my choice between the foursome, for most of the reasons already mentioned here, and a big consideration is their schedules. While both should be hugely productive, I like Alexander's 'big game potential' vs the NFC West over Portis' 'big game potential' vs the NFC East. The other mitigating factor is Gibbs' propensity to change things up inside the 'Red Zone', especially inside the 10, where he tries to vary his approach to the end zone, especially given some very specialized personnel at his disposal. There's pretty much no one that threatens Alexander from getting 'Red Zone' opportunities, or at least the first crack at them.

When I'm in this position, where I have an early pick, and this many quality choices that I have ranked in the same tier, I start opt for the 'safest' player I can hitch my wagon to...

I'm not ready to stake my right now (June 1) on either Tomlinson or LJ, as we have yet to see just how efficient Rivers is running that offense, or how much transition there's going to be with a new coach and O-Coord. I know Herm should mean good things for the running game and Solari has history as OLine Coach with the offense and personnel, but it's STILL a transition, and has to be taken into account, imo...

From a June 1 point of view, if I had the 1.01 and had to draft today, I'd take a wait and see approach about LT and LJ, and choose Alexander over Portis, more or less based on a more favorable set of 'intangibles'...

 

[jurb26]

Portis has missed 4 games in 4 years. Reading this thread it would seem there are a lot of people who are unaware of that fact.

 

[gman8343]

Portis has missed 4 games in 4 years. Reading this thread it would seem there are a lot of people who are unaware of that fact.

as opposed to Fred Taylor, who somehow missed 4 games in 1 week.

 

[jurb26]

Portis has missed 4 games in 4 years. Reading this thread it would seem there are a lot of people who are unaware of that fact.

as opposed to Fred Taylor, who somehow missed 4 games in 1 week.

 

[JimmyD]

If you think these guys are even, then compare schedules.

Week/Alexander/Portis/Atvantage

10/STL/@PHI (Alexander)

11/@SF/@TB (Alexander)

12/GB/CAR (Alexander)

13/@DEN/ATL (Even)

14/@ARI/PHI (Alexander)

Playoffs

15/SF/@NO (Even)

16/SD/@STL (Portis)

17/TB/NYG (Even)

I like Portis but if you don't see much difference in them, I think the schedule is tipped in Alexanders favor, slightly.

 

[Tom Servo]

I don't think Alexander has ever missed a game...since he has been the starter anyway. Portis has missed games here and there on a pretty consistant basis. Schedule is definately in favor of Alexander both regular season and playoffs. Alexander's low side is what I feel Portis' high end is. You may be over thinking this. I don't think Brunell makes it thru the year either. That will surely play a huge part in his production. Seatle just seems to score a lot more points than Washington. Alexander almost always scores from the 5 yard line and in. They are not scared to run him 4 times from the 5 to do it either. I have had Portis the last couple years and they seem to struggle from the 1 quite often. The Skins TE's take away too many of those short TD's for my taste. The last couple years people have been really high on Duece and I just didn't see it. This is looking like the same thing to me. He may be number 4 overall but you could make the case for several other guys. A lot would depend on the scoring system. If nothing else there has to be several owners who would give up a lot to move up to 3...as has been mentioned by others. Just my thoughts on June 1st. I agree Alexander is far from exciting to watch...always running out of bounds...well actually last year he seemed to fight for the extra yards more than any other year. But that also keeps him healthy which is very important with the 3rd pick in my opinion. As everyone knows it's a lot easier to lose the league in round one than it is to win it.

Having been a Chris Cooley owner the last couple of years, both he and Robert Royal tend to get looks in the red zone. The TE in the 'Skins O has (in the past) been more of an H back that is used (mostly) catch passes. I've heard talk that Gibbs may go away from this scheme, but I can't remember where you heard it.My , but worth less than that.

 

[hollaatyaboy]

redraft: Alexander

dynasty: Portis

redraft: Alexander

dynasty: Alexander

Loss of Hutch is no concern. I promise. Still have a all-pro left tackle Walter Jones. Plus, look at whos going to replace Hutch?

Tom Ashworth:

6'6", 305

Floyd Womack:

6'4", 330

Track record is the next big thing for me. SA has been ridiculously consistant (while always being underrated).

getting the job done:

4.6 career ypc.

14+ TDs last 5 seasons.

Over 295 carries last 5 years.

his durability is excellent too:

Never missed NFL game

increased carries last 4 consecutive (295,326,353,370) while increasing ypc (4.0, 4.4, 4.8, 5.1) and still no real injuries.

Finally, look at the schedule. SA and the Seahawks will tear through these teams.

DET

ARI

NYG

CHI

STL

MIN

KC

OAK

Stl

SF

GB

DEN

ARI

SF

SD

TB

(bold is in bottom half of fantasy points allowed. still leaves KC and ARI, bad defenses)

the guy is a freak. and a very very very underrated one.

portis has a LOT more injuries under his belt and will be playing teams that hit hard. he faced soft competition out in denver and now the nfc beast is getting to him. stay away.

as far as the dynasty "Portis is younger!" outlook? i see no reason why portis will eclipse him in the next 3 years. in dynasty you should never look beyond that.

 

[gman8343]

as far as the dynasty "Portis is younger!" outlook? i see no reason why portis will eclipse him in the next 3 years. in dynasty you should never look beyond that.

So Alexander at 32 years old will still be putting up top 2 numbers?

 

[Keepers]

In a dynasty league Portis easily IMO ... age, new contract and loss of Hutchinson are negatives for Alexander, while the addition of Al Saunders as O coach is big plus for Portis.

 

[Capt Hook]

Your question is obviously for a redraft league, so while I don't understand all the board love these days for Portis, it seems you should just look at their projections versus your league scoring system and take the one that will do the best THIS year.

 

[hollaatyaboy]

as far as the dynasty "Portis is younger!" outlook?  i see no reason why portis will eclipse him in the next 3 years.  in dynasty you should never look beyond that.

So Alexander at 32 years old will still be putting up top 2 numbers?

i'm not saying he'll put up top 2 numbers. very good numbers but most importantly, better than portis.also, 3 years = Alexander at 29, 30, 31. He's 28 now, will be 29 when season starts. I think for the next 2 years he will definitely have potential to put up higher numbers than portis, and after that itll be closer but still SA will beat him out.

the guy isn't even 30 yet. give him a break. When priest was 29 + 30 he put up top numbers. CuMart is 32 and just had his first off year.

 

[theToes]

I can't believe this is an issue. It's Alexander by a landslide. Portis just does not get the touches in the red zone. Alexander is a lock for 17-21 TD's Portis may get 10.

 

[jurb26]

I can't believe this is an issue. It's Alexander by a landslide. Portis just does not get the touches in the red zone. Alexander is a lock for 17-21 TD's Portis may get 10.

I guess you forgot how Saunders like to run his offence.

 

[theToes]

I can't believe this is an issue.  It's Alexander by a landslide.  Portis just does not get the touches in the red zone.  Alexander is a lock for 17-21 TD's  Portis may get 10.

I guess you forgot how Saunders like to run his offence.

I think they will have close to the same amoutn of yards but I believe the big difference between these two will br td's. I don't think it is unrealistic to say that Alexander will double Portis' td total.

 

[paydrt]

Any other positives/negatives that you guys think should be considered?

The only negative he has is a very large number of carries in the past two seasons 353 and 370. Rarely does a RB exceed 350 carries in consecutive seasons. In all liklelyhood his workload will decrease this season and he isn't a recevieing threat out of the backfield.

 

[jurb26]

I can't believe this is an issue. It's Alexander by a landslide. Portis just does not get the touches in the red zone. Alexander is a lock for 17-21 TD's Portis may get 10.

I guess you forgot how Saunders like to run his offence.

I think they will have close to the same amoutn of yards but I believe the big difference between these two will br td's. I don't think it is unrealistic to say that Alexander will double Portis' td total.

Well, I would say that is unrealistic barring injury. I see Portis having 14+ TDs this year and to bet on SA or anyone scoring over 20 is risky proposition IMO. Heck, Portis had 11 TDs last year. Saunders should easily add 3 to that total. My guess is he adds 5.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Since your basically even on the two, trade down a spot and take whoever is there.....

Might sound lame, but I can't pull the trigger on the off chance that LT or LJ slips to #3. I've got those two in their own tier ahead of SA and CP.

see if the guy at 1.04 would make a contingent trade assuming "your guy" is gone.

If I had the 4 and some one came to me looking to trade down, why would I do it? Obviously he isn't taking the concensus pick there or why would he be looking to trade down.

 

[hollaatyaboy]

Well, I would say that is unrealistic barring injury. I see Portis having 14+ TDs this year and to bet on SA or anyone scoring over 20 is risky proposition IMO. Heck, Portis had 11 TDs last year. Saunders should easily add 3 to that total. My guess is he adds 5.

look at track record of the two teams and players. no reason to see under 20 TDs for Alexander. No reason to see Portis have greater TDs OR yards than SA. No reason to select portis first.this isn't an issue at all. unless you're a homer or you have him on your team....oh...wait...

10 Team Dynasty, Start: 2QB, 2RB, 4WR, 2TE, K, D, Flex

QB: M.Bulger, R.Grossman, B.Leftwich, J.McCown, A.Walter

RB: M.Alstott, B.Calhoun®, M.Drew®, L.Gordon, C.Houston, K.Jones, C.Portis, D.Williams®, L.White®

WR: D.Branch, A.Bryant, S.Holmes®, Key.Johnson, B.Llyod, J.McCareins, R.Moss, T.Williamson

TE: D.Clark, C.Cooley, T.Heap, H.Miller

K: N.Kaeding, J.Wilkins

D: Chi, Wash

 

[wannabee]

Any other positives/negatives that you guys think should be considered?

The only negative he has is a very large number of carries in the past two seasons 353 and 370. Rarely does a RB exceed 350 carries in consecutive seasons. In all liklelyhood his workload will decrease this season and he isn't a recevieing threat out of the backfield.

Both of these two have had a ton of carries the last two years. THis works neither for or against either guy

 

[wannabee]

Since your basically even on the two, trade down a spot and take whoever is there.....

Might sound lame, but I can't pull the trigger on the off chance that LT or LJ slips to #3. I've got those two in their own tier ahead of SA and CP.

see if the guy at 1.04 would make a contingent trade assuming "your guy" is gone.

If I had the 4 and some one came to me looking to trade down, why would I do it? Obviously he isn't taking the concensus pick there or why would he be looking to trade down.

He is afraid you would trade with someone else. If the 1.04 guy trades with you, he has a choice. If you trade with another, he does not. This happens a ton, both in NFL and fantasy. Most are just as worried about another team trading up for that pick as they are to see who is falling to them.

 

[jurb26]

Well, I would say that is unrealistic barring injury. I see Portis having 14+ TDs this year and to bet on SA or anyone scoring over 20 is risky proposition IMO. Heck, Portis had 11 TDs last year. Saunders should easily add 3 to that total. My guess is he adds 5.

look at track record of the two teams and players. no reason to see under 20 TDs for Alexander. No reason to see Portis have greater TDs OR yards than SA. No reason to select portis first.this isn't an issue at all. unless you're a homer or you have him on your team....oh...wait...

10 Team Dynasty, Start: 2QB, 2RB, 4WR, 2TE, K, D, Flex

QB: M.Bulger, R.Grossman, B.Leftwich, J.McCown, A.Walter

RB: M.Alstott, B.Calhoun®, M.Drew®, L.Gordon, C.Houston, K.Jones, C.Portis, D.Williams®, L.White®

WR: D.Branch, A.Bryant, S.Holmes®, Key.Johnson, B.Llyod, J.McCareins, R.Moss, T.Williamson

TE: D.Clark, C.Cooley, T.Heap, H.Miller

K: N.Kaeding, J.Wilkins

D: Chi, Wash

I drafted Portis OVER SA. I wasn't left with him. On top of that, if you care to do any research what so ever then you will find I was SA's largest pimp around here last year (well maybe outside of some of the Sea homers) and continually possed the arguement that he should be drafted ahead of LT. This is a new year with new circumstances... mabye you should try and get your facts together before using the assume rule.

 

[doubledown_33]

I'm in the same boat as you in my league (picking 3rd) and when the time comes I dont know who I am going to take. Call me crazy, but the madden curse, Alexander's big payday and TD record last year is enough to scare me off from taking him. I see BIG let down year for SA this year. Just my $.02

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I think Portis is going to dissappoint a lot of people this year. Brunell still scares me, and I just have trouble taking a guy top 3 that has so much trouble scoring from inside the 10.

After 6 weeks last year people were ready to pawn off Portis for a 3rd round pick. He finished strong, sure, but why does that make you so much more valuable than doing the opposite? A guy like Steven Jackson put up top 2 numbers the first 10 weeks of last year and finished slowly when Bulger went down. I think people put too much stock into how a player finishes rather than how he does, and it makes for some colossal busts (KJ, JJ, William Green, etc etc).

If I could get one of the big 3 at #4 because someone else went Portis I would be very, very happy.

 

[Chaz]

Take the guy you want. This is FF, where you can create the team that YOU want. If you take Portis over SA, you at least are showing some individuality. Are you worried about being laughed at or something? You will probably be respected and looked at with fear...as if you know something the others don't.

 

[Sopranos]

I think Portis is going to dissappoint a lot of people this year. Brunell still scares me, and I just have trouble taking a guy top 3 that has so much trouble scoring from inside the 10.

After 6 weeks last year people were ready to pawn off Portis for a 3rd round pick. He finished strong, sure, but why does that make you so much more valuable than doing the opposite? A guy like Steven Jackson put up top 2 numbers the first 10 weeks of last year and finished slowly when Bulger went down. I think people put too much stock into how a player finishes rather than how he does, and it makes for some colossal busts (KJ, JJ, William Green, etc etc).

If I could get one of the big 3 at #4 because someone else went Portis I would be very, very happy.

I agree. Portis is good but i dont expect anything better than last season. I go SA and hope for one of his avg. years.

 

[Prime]

I can't believe this is an issue. It's Alexander by a landslide. Portis just does not get the touches in the red zone. Alexander is a lock for 17-21 TD's Portis may get 10.

I guess you forgot how Saunders like to run his offence.

Oh, now I get it. I was wondering what you guys were smoking to even think Portis will touch SA.two and pass please....