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I did read that he re-injured his wrist in practice on a hit from Sedrick Ellis, but that if there were a game this week he would be playing in it. I also read that Bush was back at practice and practicing at full speed.Not saying I agree with the drop in his ranking, but just speculation on reasons why it may have happened. Maybe once Edge gets signed by another team the rankings will shoot back up (or down further if that team is the Saints).Ron_Mexico said:
Per ROTOWORLD - "Pierre Thomas needed surgery on his wrist after last season, according to the New Orleans Times-Picayune.
The last 6 weeks of last season in one of my leagues. In another he was also 3rd. Aren't rankings where you think he will finish?1. 1. Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB 180.00 2. 7. Turner, Michael ATL RB 136.90 3. 10. Thomas, Pierre NOS RB 130.98 4. 23. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 116.80 5. 24. Slaton, Steve HOU RB 116.60 16.657 6. 26. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 114.37 7. 27. Forte, Matt CHI RB 113.20 8. 29. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB 112.80 9. 30. Jones, Thomas NYJ RB 112.20 10. 52. Washington, Leon NYJ RB 100.17
Gado seems to be the poster child for everyone that comes out of nowhere to show they will likely fade to obscurity. Thing is, not everyone who comes out of nowhere fades out of obscurity. In fact, it seems most people who flash that kind of talent and those kind of #'s usually continue to at least be productive. Ryan Grant kept his job and didn't disappear like Gado. Willie Parker did the same. Colston did it. I'm not saying PT is a lock to continue his production or that it's not possible he will fail. But saying he will fail because he only did it for a short stretch and Gado failed in a similar situation isn't a good reason, IMO. If you don't think he's good, then what are the reasons for it? Not fast enough? Not strong enough? Doesn't have good vision? Not an ideal size? An explanation like that is more helpful than "because Gado didn't do it". Personally, I've been a fan of PT's since preseason of 2007. I like how he runs. He has above average vision, decent speed, very good quickness, solid hands, and runs with power and gets the extra yard when he needs to. Watching what he did to close the season wasn't a surprise at all to me. Just a confirmation of what I saw earlier. I think if he keeps the opportunity he will do quite well. And I think the opportunity is definitely there now.
Agreed. While there are the Gados of the NFL, there are also the Terrell Davises and Priest Holmses. To assume a guy without great pedigree can't reach the top of his craft is wrong. I don't know if PT will or will not, but I'd much rather take a shot with the RB in that Saints offense, seeing what I saw of PT in the last part of 2008, than to take a shot with some of the names mentioned above like McGahee, LJ, Addai. Other than injury, nothing I've seen of Pierre tells me he won't succeed big time in 2009.
This is a very good post. I agree on some of the comment and disagree on others but it was very well worded.
Hey CP, I totally agree with you on Pierre and McFadden. Celek is the one guy I think people are sleeping on. His game vs AZ was tremendous. I know you love Walker and Edwards, but I have my doubts on both staying injury free. Also, I do not think Edwards will be strong in December when fantasy owners need him. Back on Thomas. He is a guy with great upside and should be primed for a great season. I do want to ask where you have Thomas, McFadden, TEdwards, and Walker ranked at their positions.
Why would Bell get goal-line work? Thomas was on pace for 16 rushing TDs last year and 8 receiving TDs. I personally think one of THE most overhyped things in our hobby is the dreaded "goal line vulture." Rarely does it occur that way, and often when it does it's a player few were thinking of that way beforehand.
Right now I have the following (FBG consensus 14 day in parenthesis):McFadden RB13 (RB23) -- washout year last year due to turf toe on one foot, then on the other foot, as well as other injuries, plus a coaching change. I think McFadden will be the focal point of an improved Oakland offense this year. Dodds' June 7 projections have him at RB15, just 1.5 points behind the guy at RB13, so I don't feel like I'm a lone wolf on this one. Of the guys Dodds has above him, I like McFadden better than Barber and Slaton (I think both share the load a lot more than people in general believe).P Thomas RB15 (RB19/20 tie) -- going again to Dodds' June 7 projections, he has PT at RB16 and that's pretty reasonable. As noted above, Wood has PT at RB14, so maybe it's actually sitting down and doing projections that makes people see his opportunity more clearly. I also move him above Barber (I'm not going anywhere near Barber at his current ADP by the way, with a healthy F Jones and T Choice around plus his propensity to get dinged; I don't see 200 carries for him this year, and in fact see F Jones as the Dallas RB1 sooner than later).Edwards QB12 (QB18) -- I'm pretty much alone with Wood and Waldman on this one, rating him this high. Adding TO on the other side of Evans, Steve Johnson in his second year, adding a pass catching TE, the coaches promising to get Fred Jackson more involved in new ways, Lynch in his 3rd year continuing to improve his receiving, all are positives. He finished as QB23 last year while missing 2 games. Perhaps most importantly, Edwards now has 2 years under his belt, and while people love to cite WR 3rd year breakouts, it's the 3rd year when good QBs really begin to click too. I put him right around Schaub and Garrard, and ahead of higher consensus guys like Big Ben, Ryan, Cassel, Eli, Hasselbeck. I think he could even have a better year and end up QB6 or so, but that's pushing it.Walker WR35 (WR67) -- I've backed off my hyping of Walker for a couple of months just because I know people were getting sick of it, but in a nutshell I believe the Jags will find it is Walker rather than a slowing 33 year old Holt who they need to rely on. He's bigger, faster, has great hands, and IMO will be able to dominate DBs the way Brandon Marshall and Marques Colston do. I only have him as *low* as WR35 because I believe it will take a little time for the Jags to realize they need to make the shift from currently-expected #1 Holt to inevitable #1 Walker, which will hold his stats down in the early part of the season. Over the 2nd half of the season especially, watch out.
Bush is healthy in June.
Durring Thomas' run last year he was the only option. Stecker has ahead of him on the depth chart. No one else was healthy. I don't believe the Saints coaching staff is sold on Thomas. Everyone is assuming he will step in to Deuce's role and produce the same numbers. One problem he doesn't have Deuce's talent.
Thanks for the reply. I only asked because I know you keep detailed rankings and have well-thought out opinions on these players.
By itself, I might agree. But the COACHES and GM apparently are putting the same stock. If Thomas really was smoke and mirrors, why didn't the Saints make an effort to replace him? Where's the rookie RB that might take his carries? Where's the rush to bring in a veteran like Edge to replace Deuce? Not only didn't the Saints make ANY moves to threaten Thomas' playing time, Payton came out and said he's their guy just a week or two ago. Until they actually bring someone on the roster to threaten his playing time, I don't understand the "he's smoke and mirrors" hype. Do you think the Saints are so inept at building a roster that they didn't bother to bring aboard anyone to compete for the job even though Thomas isn't up to snuff as you suggest?
And he's the only option again. As I said earlier, if the Saints bring in someone like Edge James THEN I will back off the Thomas love and reconfigure my projections. As to stepping into Deuce's role, he not only did that last year, but he did more in that role than Deuce has done in years. I've always been a huge Deuce fan so I won't argue that Thomas probably isn't as talented, but he's healthy, young and has a clear role right now. You don't need to be AS talented as a healthy, prime Deuce McAllister in order to be a solid fantasy contributor.
So you're saying his problem he'll share carries. These days that's true of most RB's. How many don't share carries?It's also true Bush will probably be hurt come playoff time.
The only reason Bush is considered a Top 20 RB is because they throw for 4500-5000 yards. If you look at Dodds [and my own] projections for Bush, his numbers as a runner are hardly fantasy worthy. It's the expectation of at least 600 yards receiving and 4+ receiving TDs that makes Bush relevant.
The question of Thomas as the Primary ball carrier is only part of it. My first post on Thomas outlines that he has a daunting schedule this year. He is not an elite talent in the mold of an LT or Adrian Peterson so he is not going to create runs when the line his being pummeled. 1. Reggie Bush had a total of 19 carries and 10 receptions between weeks 8 and 17, coinciding with the bulk of Thomas's production. 2. In 2008 while playing one of the best schedules, (and remember in my earlier post) the Saints started the year with the 5th best schedule overall, the 9th for rushing and yet finished number 28 in total rushing yards. So, what is Peyton’s philosophy? Throw the ball!3. While Drew Bree’s was giving hell to teams who on average finished the prior year in 2007(Remember 2008 5th best schedule overall) in the bottom half of the NFL for pass protection, and throwing for nearly 5000 yards it was Thomas who had little competition in the backfield with Bush either out or gimpy. Bush will be back and will RBBC with Thomas.Summing up reasons to be skeptical this year on Thomas:1. Bree’s will not get 5000 yards this year (Fantasy Football guys are bad including me for chasing last years stats). The Saints will be playing from behind against much better defenses this year than last, running the ball for clock management is not going to be much of an option. Brees will still average a lofty 65 percent completion rate and the Saints will run for about 1450 yards as they have for the past two years. It is the effectiveness of Drew Brees that limits Rushing attempts as much as any other factor.2. Bush averaged around 570 yards rushing in 2006 and 2007. I would suggest that Bush will do about the same, subtract that from 1450 and you are at 880 yards.3. Bush will be the primary pass catcher out of the Backfield, limiting Thomas this year to about 30 catches for 280 yards over the entire season.If all things fall into place for Thomas this season he would finish around the 15th to 17th RB for fantasy Purposes. Looking at the entire picture, I think that there is little separation between 15th and 25th when you consider that TD’s are always the biggest unknown. Should Thomas have a nice yardage year but come up a little short in the TD department then he could easily finish closer to 30 than 15. If putting money on Thomas I would bet that he would finish no better than the 20th best back for fantasy purposes this year.An RB2 in a 16 team league with little upside.
Why make the above statement as the topic sentence of a paragraph and then pretty much argue the exact opposite in the rest of the paragraph?
Playing from behind, not running much, Brees hugely effective? Seems to me that all those arguments are in favor of Brees being closer to 5K than 4K.... Sure he might not get to 5K, but 4800 is still a monster yardage total...
Except i will do some dirty work and hunt down some quotes 
http://blog.nola.com/saintsbeat/2009/05/sa...rt_meachem.html________________________________________________________________________________
http://www.2theadvocate.com/sports/saints/...ndex=14&c=y________________________________________________________________________________
http://audio.wwl.com/m/audio/22386188/drew-brees.htm
There is no argument from me that Brees is a stud or a lock for over 4000 yards. However because of the schedule in 2009 I see the Saints offense being on the field far less than in 2008. Not just limiting the number of pass attempts, but also rushing opportunities. John Clayton points out over at ESPN that the NFC south in general faces a very tough schedule this year.The argument is not "opposite", it is systemic of the Saints Offensive philosophy and talent. Brees throws the ball, that is the offense. Running is an afterthought and used as a breather between pass attempts.I will attempt to further clarify my "argument", hopefully with some success. Brees is an efficient QB averaging a 2-1 TD to interception ratio over the last three seasons. Because I believe the Saints indeed face a tougher schedule this year than last and arguably one of the tougher in the last couple of years, the Saints will have less possession time than 2008, and because Brees does not have a reputation of being a Farve like player who forces the issue he will not attempt to throw into coverage on third and long. The Saints should face more three and outs and that will have the effect of limiting Brees yardage. A QB with 4000 yards and 24-28 TD's is still a super stud and worthy of consideration of a first round fantasy pick in most formats.
Are you sure about that.In MFL ADP we get this-
My apologizes, I didn't check anything before writing that down. I actually thought he would be going off the board alittle earlier.If he was there in the fifth I could see myself taking a stab.
90%? How much?In this one he went at 4.07.
Pretty far off from FFCalc ADP.1 1.01 Adrian Peterson RB MIN 1.3bcr8f said:
There he's going 2.07-4.12. I objected to Traders2001 because he said he would go early 3rd or earlier.
Yes, that is the first one I commished. The second early redraft is here. PT went 4.02http://football16.myfantasyleague.com/2009...=70985&O=17
one thing we've learned about SOS over the years, is that SOS is mostly meaningless...NE played the easiest SOS ever in the history of the NFL last season - missed the playoffs..
...and against Chicago, he had 146 total yards and 2 TDs. His best game of the season, in fact.
Exactly. Let's penalize PT for making his schedule easy. Bottom line is that lots of players get to face easy schedules and most of them still don't perform that well against them. What did the TB RB's do against a similarly easy schedule?
OK, I see what you are saying now. That they will have the ball less on offense as a whole and that when they do have the ball, Brees will be the primary guy but due to less time of poss. his numbers will drop too...
