Pittsburgh (2-6) favored by 4½ over N.O. (6-2) (1 Viewer)

[Raider Nation]

I wouldn't even know where to research this, but I would find it hard to believe that a team with a 2-6 (or worse) record has ever been favored by at least 4½ points over a team with a 6-2 (or better) record.

Obviously there are TONS more Steelers fans than Saints fans in the betting public, so Vegas doesn't want to leave their legs open by favoring Pittsburgh by less than 3 and face the prospect of losing enormous amounts of money, but if New Orleans ever wanted to play the "no respect" card..... man, this is the week to do it.

Having said all of that, I still cannot bet on the Saints in this spot. It's a no-play for me.

 

[The Jacket]

At 2-5 they were favored over the 5-2 Broncos last week, too.

Vegas has a boner for the Steelers.

 

[-OZ-]

At 2-5 they were favored over the 5-2 Broncos last week, too.Vegas has a boner for the Steelers.

Doesn't the line have something to do with people's expectations? Vegas wouldn't give the Steelers the "advantage" if everyone bet against it.

 

[Raider Nation]

At 2-5 they were favored over the 5-2 Broncos last week, too.

Vegas has a boner for the Steelers.

As long as the public keeps backing them, they'll keep being favorites. It's about money flow.But it's time for even the hardcore Pittsburgh fans to realize that last year was the anomaly, and this year is a more accurate picture of the real Steelers.

 

[Raider Nation]

At 2-5 they were favored over the 5-2 Broncos last week, too.Vegas has a boner for the Steelers.

Doesn't the line have something to do with people's expectations? Vegas wouldn't give the Steelers the "advantage" if everyone bet against it.

Yyyyyyyyyyyyep.

 

[bryhamm]

At 2-5 they were favored over the 5-2 Broncos last week, too.Vegas has a boner for the Steelers.

Sig material there.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

everyone's going to bet NO in this game, which means Pittsburgh should win handily.

 

[#@%&$!?]

70% of the public are on the saints. I get the feeling this is a trap line.

 

[gman8343]

But it's time for even the hardcore Pittsburgh fans to realize that last year was the anomaly, and this year is a more accurate picture of the real Steelers.

Steelers have been very good for a decade, not sure your statement really makes sense.I'm not a Steelers homer at all, but they've been one of the better teams for years.

 

[ExtraPoint]

One single player is holding Pittsburg back and part of the problem was injuries and lack of practice. Vegas knew what they were doing last year before Pittsburg started rolling. I think the question is when not if Pittsburg heats up this year.

 

[Raider Nation]

But it's time for even the hardcore Pittsburgh fans to realize that last year was the anomaly, and this year is a more accurate picture of the real Steelers.

Steelers have been very good for a decade, not sure your statement really makes sense.I'm not a Steelers homer at all, but they've been one of the better teams for years.

Just trolling is all...

 

[simey]

The Steelers offense has been racking up the yards, but their turnovers have killed them. For as many turnovers that they are committing in a game (and it's been a lot), they have managed to stay in these games up until the end. If their offense protects the ball this weekend, I can see why they would be favored at home.

 

[gman8343]

But it's time for even the hardcore Pittsburgh fans to realize that last year was the anomaly, and this year is a more accurate picture of the real Steelers.

Steelers have been very good for a decade, not sure your statement really makes sense.I'm not a Steelers homer at all, but they've been one of the better teams for years.

Just trolling is all...

ahhhh, should have seen this.

 

[Steelers4Life]

The Steelers offense has been racking up the yards, but their turnovers have killed them. For as many turnovers that they are committing in a game (and it's been a lot), they have managed to stay in these games up until the end. If their offense protects the ball this weekend, I can see why they would be favored at home.

We've been saying this for weeks. Hasn't happened yet.If they had, they'd likely be a 5-3 or 6-2 team right now. But they're not, and they've earned every bit of their 2-6 record.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

As long as the public keeps backing them, they'll keep being favorites. It's about money flow.

But it's time for even the hardcore Pittsburgh fans to realize that last year was the anomaly, and this year is a more accurate picture of the real Steelers.

The year before was an anomaly too, right?As for the money flow, I remember seeing that debunked by one of the former line-setters for a major vegas book. For huge betting events like the SB where they can't risk losing, this is the case, but for all other NFL games where the total sums aren't very large, they trust their line-setters and are happy to have 70% action on one side of a good line.

 

[MLBrandow]

The Bucs during their 5-11 season a few years ago were favored by about 3 or 4 over Atlanta in like Week 13.

Someone would have to look up the specifics, as I don't gamble.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

This line confused me all week. It makes no sense.

The Saints should absolutely roll.

I'd love to know why the line was set this way (unless it was truly based on tons of $$ on Pittsburgh expected).

NOTE - The line is set in an effort to be perfectly centered. That is, they want equal $$ on both sides of the wager, so they can be guaranteed no loss and get the "vig" for placing the bet (10% usually).

 

[SteelerMurf]

Steelers are coming close to winning each of their loses despite turning the ball over 5 and 6 times each. I think Vegas is thinking....what are the odds they turn it over 5 times again?

 

[Sheriff66]

At 2-5 they were favored over the 5-2 Broncos last week, too.

Vegas has a boner for the Steelers.

As long as the public keeps backing them, they'll keep being favorites. It's about money flow.But it's time for even the hardcore Pittsburgh fans to realize that last year was the anomaly, and this year is a more accurate picture of the real Steelers.

You're Sh##in' me, right ?

 

[kevjones22]

I don't see why, the refs cant win them every game, they just dont look very good this year...

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

the refs cant win them every game

From: Seattle, Washington

 

[kevjones22]

oh i am, but still they arent that good this year

 

[richn]

I'm in a large pool picking all the games VS the spread, doing pretty well. THIS LINE IS KILLING ME!!! A good team getting more than a FG from a team playing poorly. it looks too easy, I KNOW IT NEVER IS. I should just take the gift points....I keep changing my pick on this one.

 

[sterjs]

Pittsburgh is very underrated and NO is overrated. NO is a full win above their Pythagorean W-L and Pittsburgh is 2 wins beneath theirs. Also, Football Outsiders rates Pittsburgh slightly better in DVOA than NO, add 3 points for home field and you're getting close to the -4.5 line.

 

[sterjs]

As long as the public keeps backing them, they'll keep being favorites. It's about money flow.

As for the money flow, I remember seeing that debunked by one of the former line-setters for a major vegas book. For huge betting events like the SB where they can't risk losing, this is the case, but for all other NFL games where the total sums aren't very large, they trust their line-setters and are happy to have 70% action on one side of a good line.

That's what he said in his post though(maybe not exactly, but close enough)--the public is backing Pitt, so the books are shading games toward the Pitt side of the line.

 

[richn]

Pittsburgh is very underrated and NO is overrated. NO is a full win above their Pythagorean W-L and Pittsburgh is 2 wins beneath theirs. Also, Football Outsiders rates Pittsburgh slightly better in DVOA than NO, add 3 points for home field and a little more because more juice figures to be on Pittsburgh and you have yourself a -4.5 line.

I am NOT a Saints fan, but Overrated???? What makes you say that?? Their Offense has been excellent, Brees, Colston, Deuce, Mix in a few Bush Receptioons, they've been scoring with anyone. I know Brees has been on fire the past few weeks, and their D is solid. The "O" line has been protecting Brees as GOOD AS ANY in the NFL so far. OVERRATED??? Lets give credit where credit is due. PS Turnovers or not Pitt lost to the RAIDERS

 

[sterjs]

This line confused me all week. It makes no sense.

The Saints should absolutely roll.

I'd love to know why the line was set this way (unless it was truly based on tons of $$ on Pittsburgh expected).

NOTE - The line is set in an effort to be perfectly centered. That is, they want equal $$ on both sides of the wager, so they can be guaranteed no loss and get the "vig" for placing the bet (10% usually).

The "equal action idea" was already debunked extensively in this thread.

 

[sterjs]

I am NOT a Saints fan, but Overrated???? What makes you say that??

Pythagorean W-L tells us how many games a team would win on average given their points scored/points allowed(it's based on a history of NFL games [Points Scored/Points Allowed]^2.37=Pythagorean Wins/Losses. In the Saints case, they have won 6.00, but their Pythagorean is 5.02. So they've had a full game's worth of luck on their side in this area--this is a substantial margin to outperform one's Pythagorean W-L.DVOA measures how well a team has performed based on their yardage, success rate on various downs, red zone points, etc, etc. According to DVOA, they are only about 9.7% better overall than an average team across Off., Def., Spec. Teams. That does not translate to 6-2.

 

[sterjs]

The "O" line has been protecting Brees as GOOD AS ANY in the NFL so far.

Brees has been the least sacked QB in the league per pass attempt, but he was also stellar in this area behind some marginal offensive lines for my own San Diego Chargers(who were top 10 in adjusted sack rate/attempt in eveyr year he played there) so a lot of credit needs to go to Brees, who is skilled at evading sacks.

 

[top dog]

The game predictor has Pitt winning by about 3.

 

[CrossEyed]

Steelers are coming close to winning each of their loses despite turning the ball over 5 and 6 times each. I think Vegas is thinking....what are the odds they turn it over 5 times again?

I thought that last week.

 

[pecorino]

just saw the line was -6 at our friends Mansion.com. unbelievable.

 

[Little Richard]

At 2-5 they were favored over the 5-2 Broncos last week, too.Vegas has a boner for the Steelers.

And by gametime, they had Tampa favored by 1 1/2. So combine that with no love for the Saints.