What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Player Spotlight: Alex Smith, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Alex Smith, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Player Page Link: Alex Smith Player Page

Each article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
  • FBG Projections
The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
 
Alex Smith has never been a reliable FF QB, at least not for a full season. Could that change this season? I think so. Here's why:

1-Andy Reid. Andy Reid signed Smith, he didn't inherit him. After Reid became coach of KC, he signed Smith. To me, that says that Reid believes he can make Smith successful. Reid LOVES to throw the ball; regardless of whether he has stud receivers to catch it (which KC does, in Bowe), or a stud QB to throw it (see AJ Foley, Mike McMahon, Kevin Kolb, Nick Foles, etc).

Reid has averaged 554 attempts/season in his 14 year HC career.

2-Alex Smith was a much better QB his last 2 years in SF than he was early in his career. His YPA in '11 & '12 was 7.4, compared to 6.2 over his first 5 years. His TD rate has improved from 1 TD/every 30 att (his first 5 years) to 1 TD/every 22 att (in '11 & '12). His INT rate has decreased from 1 INT every 29 att (first 5 years) to 1 INT every 66 att ('11 & '12). His completion percentage has increased from 57% (first 5 years) to 64% ('11 & '12).

3-Smith is familiar with the WCO, and has good mobility within the pocket. Reid's version of the WCO tends to move his QB in the pocket.

After looking at Smith and Reid, I'm going to project:

540 attempts, 350 comp (65%), 3900 pass yards (7.2 YPA), 24 TDs, 10 INT, 50 rush, 150 rush yards, 2 TD

According to my rough, early projections, that would make Smith QB13. When you factor in KC's SOS, you see (according to FBG) that KC is projected for 5 "easy" QB matchups, and no "tough" QB matchups. He is going in the 14th round (according to FF calculator), and could be a very valuable part of a QBBC.

 
Alex Smith has never been a reliable FF QB, at least not for a full season. Could that change this season? I think so. Here's why:

1-Andy Reid. Andy Reid signed Smith, he didn't inherit him. After Reid became coach of KC, he signed Smith.
Even better for your point is that he actually traded a high second round pick to get him.

 
Alex Smith has never been a reliable FF QB, at least not for a full season. Could that change this season? I think so. Here's why:

1-Andy Reid. Andy Reid signed Smith, he didn't inherit him. After Reid became coach of KC, he signed Smith. To me, that says that Reid believes he can make Smith successful. Reid LOVES to throw the ball; regardless of whether he has stud receivers to catch it (which KC does, in Bowe), or a stud QB to throw it (see AJ Foley, Mike McMahon, Kevin Kolb, Nick Foles, etc).

Reid has averaged 554 attempts/season in his 14 year HC career.

2-Alex Smith was a much better QB his last 2 years in SF than he was early in his career. His YPA in '11 & '12 was 7.4, compared to 6.2 over his first 5 years. His TD rate has improved from 1 TD/every 30 att (his first 5 years) to 1 TD/every 22 att (in '11 & '12). His INT rate has decreased from 1 INT every 29 att (first 5 years) to 1 INT every 66 att ('11 & '12). His completion percentage has increased from 57% (first 5 years) to 64% ('11 & '12).

3-Smith is familiar with the WCO, and has good mobility within the pocket. Reid's version of the WCO tends to move his QB in the pocket.

After looking at Smith and Reid, I'm going to project:

540 attempts, 350 comp (65%), 3900 pass yards (7.2 YPA), 24 TDs, 10 INT, 50 rush, 150 rush yards, 2 TD

According to my rough, early projections, that would make Smith QB13. When you factor in KC's SOS, you see (according to FBG) that KC is projected for 5 "easy" QB matchups, and no "tough" QB matchups. He is going in the 14th round (according to FF calculator), and could be a very valuable part of a QBBC.
nice post and good read on Reid's history

 
I'm bullish on Smith's potential this year.

Nick Foles averaged 38 attempts per game last season playing for Reid, so you know Smith is going to be utilized pretty often this year. He also has the benefit of playing with a great pass-catching RB, not to mention that there's always the possibility that Smith can get a few TDs rushing it in. The only thing that I'm worried about is the KC defense, i.e. it might be too good, thereby making Smith more of a game-manager. If that defense can suck it up, there's no reason why Smith can't be one of the better QB2's out there and one that might be undrafted in your league.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top