Player Spotlight: Alex Smith (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco 49ers

Player Page Link: Alex Smith Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[rzrback77]

I think that Alex Smith the QB could be a pleasant surprise this upcoming year. He will not even have to be very productive, given his last year's performance and his ADP for this season. I have seen him go undrafted in 16-team leagues!

I foresee improvement on the offensive line, his receivers (A Bryant and V Davis) and the 49ers will continue to get pounded forcing them to play from behind. This will result in a drastic increase in garbage time and garbage yards, resulting in a successful fantasy season for Alex Smith.

He achieves 264 completions in 477 attempts for 2850 yards, 14 TDs and 18 Ints. He will add 65 rushes for 237 yards and 3 TDs.

 

[Bankerguy]

He is almost un draftable....depending on your league requirements.

Suspect running attack.

Will be trailing frequently.

I am not convince he can handle the blitz effectively.

Lost Lloyd a good young WR.

Davis will be a nice weapon.

Bryant is solid, but an enigma.

Passing

260

2800

14

Rushing

65

380

3

 

[Rovers]

I also think Smith could be something of a mild surprise this year. He should have more time in the pocket, and with an improved (not vastly, but significantly) O line, the running game should also be incrementally better. I still don't like his WR's, but a solid pass receiving TE should be a big help both for designed plays and as an outlet.

I'll go out on a limb....

2900

19 TD's

16 INT's

This is his second year, and I don't think he is as bad as his numbers from last year would seem to indicate. Typical rookie year on a bad team with a putrid offensive line. The line is improved, and the recieving corp might actually be improved overall with the addition of Davis.

 

[CalBear]

The Niners' trainwreck is still heading downhill at a high rate of speed. The selection of a TE with the sixth overall pick was just the latest in a string of poor decisions. It's hard to say whether that decision, or the decision to hire Norv Turner as offensive coordinator is worse. Norv is coming off two years where the Raiders' offense, which is enormously more talented than the Niners', finished #20 and #21 overall and the team won just 9 games in two years. In Norv's career, his offense has finished in the top 10 only once. Those are not two moves to turn around the franchise. If Norv can only manage #21 overall with the top free agent QB, the top free agent RB, the top free agent WR, and a pretty good existing WR corps, in Oakland, what will he do with Alex Smith, Kevan Barlow, Antonio Bryant and Arnaz Battle in San Francisco? And when's the last time a TE drafted in the top 10 came in and helped turn a franchise around? (Answer: 1972, Riley Odoms, if you're being generous). The Niners will still be looking up at whatever team is #30 overall by the end of the season.

But getting back to Alex Smith. He was 2004's first bad move. The second bad move was getting rid of Tim Rattay and throwing Smith to the wolves. Smith's tryout as a starter was historically bad; his 50.7% completion rate was poor but not out of line for a rookie QB, but his 1-to-11 TD/INT ratio was awful. In fact, since 1960 there is no comparable rookie season (3 or fewer TDs, 10 or more INTs) which led to even a mediocre career. The best was Richard Todd, who threw 3 TDs vs. 12 INTs as a rookie, and played 11 seasons. He didn't throw more TDs than INTs until his 6th season, and finished with 124 TDs and 161 INTs. So, statistically you can expect Smith to continue to suck, even if you hadn't watched him on the field (where he looked terrible).

I'm not going to bother trying to project based on Smith's last-year stats; they are simply too weak to project off of. Let's give Smith the benefit of the doubt, and say that he'll improve enough to equal the team production from 2005 (including Ken Dorsey's and Tim Rattay's contributions). And we'll even give him an uptick in TDs.

2200 yards, 12 TD, 21 INT. And it could be worse than that. Look elsewhere.

 

[Musesboy]

Alex Smith did not have an easy introduction to the NFL last year. The 49ers were a terrible team. The receivers were inexperienced and below average and the offensive line was weak. Smith was thrown into a situation in which he had to learn on the fly with very little support.

It can be difficult to imagine just how much a QB can improve in his second season as the starter. History shows that most QBs struggle to hit 50% of their passes in their first year as the starter, and most throw more interceptions than TDs. It is even more difficult when the player is forced into action in his rookie year.

Smith has now had a year to absorb the offense. His receivers are upgraded with the additions of WR Antonio Bryant and TE Vernon Davis, and the return from injury of TE Eric Johnson. Larry Allen may be well past his best but he should still help solidify the offensive line. Smith also has a veteran presence to learn from in QB Trent Dilfer. There is definitely cause for optimism this year.

Even though the 49ers struggled all year in 2005, the offense was so bad that Smith didn't attempt 30 passes in any game. In fact, the team ran more than it passed. One positive for Smith is that he led the team to two wins in the final two games of the season. Although those games were against Houston and St. Louis, it will still go some way to building Smith's confidence.

Prediction

246/432 2600 passing yards 15 TDs 20 INTs

35 rushes 110 yards 0 TDs

 

[matt jones]

1120 yards 3 TD's 12 INT's

Future in real-estate for the biggest bust of all-time... Mr. Tiny Hands.

 

[derek19]

1120 yards 3 TD's 12 INT's

Future in real-estate for the biggest bust of all-time... Mr. Tiny Hands.

I'm not sure why you think Alex Smith has tiny hands. Care to explain?

 

[Byron_nyc]

Forget it.

2500 yards / 15 Tds / 17 Ints.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

Clearly the 49er offense was pathetic last year, but it's way too early to write off Alex--it was his first year on an awful team for crying our loud. Certainly I don't think that Alex is going to go off and be a servicable QB2, but there is reason for optimism. He shouldn't look like a deer in the headlights as often this year. The offensive line should be decent and could be above average if Jennings and Newberry can return from injury successfully--regardless they will be improved over last year. They lost Lloyd, but got Davis and Bryant, so probably a marginal improvement there especially if Battle can stay healthy and Johnson can be effective in his return from injury. The running game will prolly be some form of RBBC with Barlow and Gore and will likely still be below average, but improved over last year with the improved O-line, esp. if Gore can stay healthy. Lastly, the niners have a much friendlier sched this year IMHO--last year they got the AFC south and NFC East. This year they get the AFC West & NFC North in addition to the their own division where the D's aren't strong, but the O's are. Same with the AFC West--some strong O's, but the D's aren't that stout (especially the passing D's--SD, KC). NFC north has Chicago, but Detroit, Minneasota and GB too. It's a lock that they'll be behind early and often, so garbage time stats should add up. I'm looking at 2700 yards, 16 TD's, 19 picks and 300 rushing yards and 2 TD's.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Interesting article on predicting QB success by rookie year and TD:INT ratio.

http://www.caffeinated.com/coinflip/module...=article&sid=17

Another one on predicting QB success by college stats (games started/completion%)

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/03/2...-analysis/3774/

 

[matt jones]

1120 yards 3 TD's 12 INT's

Future in real-estate for the biggest bust of all-time... Mr. Tiny Hands.

I'm not sure why you think Alex Smith has tiny hands. Care to explain?

It's been well-documented he has very small hands which is why he fumbles the ball alot. He'll #### his arm back to throw the ball and fumble it away. He's got freakishly small hands for a quarterback. Also, he isn't that good. I couldn't believe it when he went #1... He was a projected 5th round pick until his great year in a pro-style offense at Utah. Stupid 9ers should have taken ronnie brown.

 

[Bankerguy]

1120 yards 3 TD's 12 INT's

Future in real-estate for the biggest bust of all-time...  Mr. Tiny Hands.

I'm not sure why you think Alex Smith has tiny hands. Care to explain?

It's been well-documented he has very small hands which is why he fumbles the ball alot. He'll #### male rooster his arm back to throw the ball and fumble it away. He's got freakishly small hands for a quarterback. Also, he isn't that good. I couldn't believe it when he went #1... He was a projected 5th round pick until his great year in a pro-style offense at Utah. Stupid 9ers should have taken ronnie brown.

Fixed

 

[mbuehner]

I've looked over the improvement of the other 6 QBs taken #1 in the draft in the last 10 years between their 1st and 2nd seasons starting. The average improvement is about +28% FPs per game. BUT, their were wild differences, as we might expect from a small sample size. Carr and Couch improved less than 5%, Vick and Eli about doubled, and Peyton and Carson were in between. So that didnt tell me anything much accept its entirely possible Smith wont improve enough to matter, and its entirely possible he will perform even twice as well. I had suspected that all of these guys would have made decent strides, but that wasnt the case.

Smith to me is just what he appears, a total flyer only useful on a team with roster slots to burn. Even if he doubles his output next season, he would still only about 220 FPs, which is still below guys like Mark Brunell and Chris Simms who have proven they can put those numbers up. And thats pretty much the best case scenario. I don't see Smith playing even that well, and I dont see any reason to have Alex Smith on any non-dynasty team.

240 completions, 2350 passing yards, 12 passing tds, 13 ints, 292 yards rushing, 0 rushing tds

 

[Pick]

He was a projected 5th round pick until his great year in a pro-style offense at Utah.

The spread option is a pro-style offense?

 

[Warhogs]

1120 yards 3 TD's 12 INT's

Future in real-estate for the biggest bust of all-time...  Mr. Tiny Hands.

I'm not sure why you think Alex Smith has tiny hands. Care to explain?

It's been well-documented he has very small hands which is why he fumbles the ball alot. He'll #### his arm back to throw the ball and fumble it away. He's got freakishly small hands for a quarterback. Also, he isn't that good. I couldn't believe it when he went #1... He was a projected 5th round pick until his great year in a pro-style offense at Utah. Stupid 9ers should have taken ronnie brown.

Didn't Dave Krieg also be known as having small hands? He put up some pretty good numbers in his NFL career.I have no idea if I think Smith will ever make a good pro.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Alex Smith looked good the other night.

Does this at all affect people's views on him ?

I can't believe he went undrafted in a 16 team league.

That is wrong.

 

[CalBear]

Alex Smith looked good the other night.Does this at all affect people's views on him ?

Yes. He's been upgraded from "the next Ryan Leaf" to "the next Danny Wuerffel".

 

[derek19]

Alex Smith looked good the other night.Does this at all affect people's views on him ?

Yes. He's been upgraded from "the next Ryan Leaf" to "the next Danny Wuerffel".

How rodgers do the other night?

 

[CalBear]

How rodgers do the other night?

9/11 for 124 yards, 21 yards rushing.It's certainly nice that Smith didn't totally suck, but 8.5 yards per completion indicates an extremely conservative passing game. We'll see what happens when he has to play the entire field rathern than just the dump-offs.

 

[brakeyawself]

So now that preseason is over, what are new thoughts on how Smith is progressing. He's still really really young, so he's got that on his side. But is he looking like a bust thus far?

 

[CalBear]

So now that preseason is over, what are new thoughts on how Smith is progressing. He's still really really young, so he's got that on his side. But is he looking like a bust thus far?

He looked awful last night against backups. He is clearly not nearly as good a QB as Trent Dilfer right now, and that's saying something. (Dilfer's career numbers: 55.7% completions, 6.6 ypa, 106 TD, 117 INT).

 

[brakeyawself]

So now that preseason is over, what are new thoughts on how Smith is progressing. He's still really really young, so he's got that on his side. But is he looking like a bust thus far?

He looked awful last night against backups. He is clearly not nearly as good a QB as Trent Dilfer right now, and that's saying something. (Dilfer's career numbers: 55.7% completions, 6.6 ypa, 106 TD, 117 INT).

Thats a shame. I dont know what to do with this guy. He's my only backup this season and Im afraid Dilfer might end up getting starts, the way Smith has looked.

 

[Leviathan]

So now that preseason is over, what are new thoughts on how Smith is progressing. He's still really really young, so he's got that on his side. But is he looking like a bust thus far?

He looked awful last night against backups. He is clearly not nearly as good a QB as Trent Dilfer right now, and that's saying something. (Dilfer's career numbers: 55.7% completions, 6.6 ypa, 106 TD, 117 INT).

I noticed this too. Dilfer actually looked like he was in command of his team. Smith looked like a deer caught in the headlights waiting for the inevitable. Not a good sign considering he was up against 2nd and 3rd teamers. It's gonna be a long year. :(

 

[lions327]

Another thing to consider...and maybe the most important, is that he played in the shotgun in college. That would be hard enough for someone with more experience, let alone a rookie on a team with a terrible line, no WR's and no running game last year. He not only had to get used to the talent level and speed of the game, but also playing under center. Tell me another rookie QB who had that much to overcome in a rookie year in which they started. I can't tihnk of anyone even close.

I am one who thinks he will be a great one, he has all the physical tools and is highly intelligent. It takes time for QB's to develop.

 

[Musesboy]

Predicted

246/432 2600 passing yards 15 TDs 20 INTs

35 rushes 110 yards 0 TDs

Actual

257/442 2890 passing yards 16 TDs 16 INTs

43 carries 147 rushing yards 2 TDs

Smith did better than most people expected. I do think there is a tendency to overlook the potential improvement in second year QBs. I am quite happy with this prediction. The emergence of Frank Gore certainly helped.

Alex Smith did not have an easy introduction to the NFL last year. The 49ers were a terrible team. The receivers were inexperienced and below average and the offensive line was weak. Smith was thrown into a situation in which he had to learn on the fly with very little support.

It can be difficult to imagine just how much a QB can improve in his second season as the starter. History shows that most QBs struggle to hit 50% of their passes in their first year as the starter, and most throw more interceptions than TDs. It is even more difficult when the player is forced into action in his rookie year.

Smith has now had a year to absorb the offense. His receivers are upgraded with the additions of WR Antonio Bryant and TE Vernon Davis, and the return from injury of TE Eric Johnson. Larry Allen may be well past his best but he should still help solidify the offensive line. Smith also has a veteran presence to learn from in QB Trent Dilfer. There is definitely cause for optimism this year.

Even though the 49ers struggled all year in 2005, the offense was so bad that Smith didn't attempt 30 passes in any game. In fact, the team ran more than it passed. One positive for Smith is that he led the team to two wins in the final two games of the season. Although those games were against Houston and St. Louis, it will still go some way to building Smith's confidence.

Prediction

246/432 2600 passing yards 15 TDs 20 INTs

35 rushes 110 yards 0 TDs

 

[thecatch]

So now that preseason is over, what are new thoughts on how Smith is progressing. He's still really really young, so he's got that on his side. But is he looking like a bust thus far?

He looked awful last night against backups. He is clearly not nearly as good a QB as Trent Dilfer right now, and that's saying something. (Dilfer's career numbers: 55.7% completions, 6.6 ypa, 106 TD, 117 INT).