What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Player Spotlight: Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans

Player Page Link: Andre Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
  • FBG Projections
The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
 
Andre Johnson keeps chugging along being a PPR machine, and I can't see this year being any different. Sure he has some injury risk and doesn't score a ton of TDs, but he is still pretty reliable as a middle of the road WR1 in a 12 team league. His TDs will limit his upside somewhat, but I wouldn't be surprised in he caught 110+ passes and finished in the top 5 WRs in PPR leagues. I would take him after Calvin, Green, Marshall, Dez, Julio, and Demariyus Thomas are off the board......have him WR7.

95 rec, 1375 yds, 8 TD

 
The reports of him "losing a step" were greatly over exaggerated last year and likely will be again this year.

AJ is not built like the typical WR that just *poof*, he hits the wall one day. He is, instead, much more like a Terrrell Owens, who, yes, may lose the factor that makes you say WOW!, but can still be highly, highly effective. Other things he has going for him is the Texans do not mince words in saying he is still THE piece they build the passing game around. He also is never any trouble in terms of his attitude and he does have, for the first time in I can't remember, some legitimate talent lining up across from him. For the first time in forever, teams may actually have to think past "well, let's start by doubling AJ" when it comes to the passing game.

I believe he is still a very very good top 12-15 Wr, will be for a couple more years, and is the type of guy a team that is in that winning window could prbably get best bang for the buck in acquiring.

 
It was hilarious that the "losing a step" comments last year were so numerous during the period in which AJ wasn't getting as many targets as normal (his production/target was right on pace), then as soon as Houston needed him more, the jibber jabber ceased. As a guy who catches screen passes behind the line of scrimmage as well as plays the deep threat, AJ is a very versatile WR and will find a way to be productive as he slows down. Fortunately for us, he hasn't slowed down yet. He ended the year with his usual 10 targets/game number. The only problem was that his touchdowns were a career low for a 16 game season. But touchdowns are volatile as can be noted by Calvin Johnson's slip from 16 to 5 despite catching 122 balls last year.

I expect AJ to maintain about 10 targets a game and for his touchdowns to bounce back. It would be nice if Hopkins develops quickly enough to possibly detract defenders enough for AJ to get a little 1-on-1 action. I think AJ is priced about right as WR7/8. I view him and Fitz as the end of the "safe WR1" tier WRs.

150 targets x 65% = 98 rec x 14.3 ypr = 1400 yds 8 TD

 
FF Ninja said:
It was hilarious that the "losing a step" comments last year were so numerous during the period in which AJ wasn't getting as many targets as normal (his production/target was right on pace), then as soon as Houston needed him more, the jibber jabber ceased. As a guy who catches screen passes behind the line of scrimmage as well as plays the deep threat, AJ is a very versatile WR and will find a way to be productive as he slows down. Fortunately for us, he hasn't slowed down yet. He ended the year with his usual 10 targets/game number. The only problem was that his touchdowns were a career low for a 16 game season. But touchdowns are volatile as can be noted by Calvin Johnson's slip from 16 to 5 despite catching 122 balls last year.

I expect AJ to maintain about 10 targets a game and for his touchdowns to bounce back. It would be nice if Hopkins develops quickly enough to possibly detract defenders enough for AJ to get a little 1-on-1 action. I think AJ is priced about right as WR7/8. I view him and Fitz as the end of the "safe WR1" tier WRs.

150 targets x 65% = 98 rec x 14.3 ypr = 1400 yds 8 TD
:goodposting:

Nice work on the production/target analysis comparing the first part vs. second part of last season.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top