Player Spotlight: Andre Johnson (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans

Player Page Link: Andre Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[buster c]

one of these years, he's going to bust loose. 3rd year player who is free of Dom Capers "coaching" should finally hit double digit TD's. Book 1200 yards and 10 TDs because I said so

 

[jerseys finest]

80/1100/9

 

[diesel7982]

one of these years, he's going to bust loose. 3rd year player who is free of Dom Capers "coaching" should finally hit double digit TD's. Book 1200 yards and 10 TDs because I said so

4th year player.

 

[losgalacticos]

His good games have been tremendous. The problem is 3 things must improve- his play, the lines play, and Carrs play. The good news is that they all probably will. I have read that Carr is the most improved player in MC. The coaches are high on Wand at LT. If they get it together, I see them being a passing team with Moulds taking some attention, and the RBs being only adequate.

I see something like 82-1350-8. That is 16.5 ypc, reflecting the presense of Moulds. It is also likely one of the higher projections he will get here- but I don't believe his past performance applies, because too many things are changing- probably for the better.

 

[Blackjacks]

Strictly on talent I like AJ but it takes more than talent to be an effective FF player and so far that's all AJ had=s shown. I'll give him cracking 1,000 yards this year but he has to show me something on the td side before I come close to putting him in double digits.

62 rec. 1150 yards 7 td's

good for about 11 to 13 wr

 

[Winning IS Everything]

I think Andre is an amazing talent and will be great in time, but this will be the first year in a totally new system. Too many things are changing to make this offense explosive overnight. I see an increase in production over last year but not a massive jump.

82 - 1025 - 6

Edited to account for a math error on my team passing totals.

 

[Frills]

I see more than a 2 yd now route and definately more than a 7 yd curl route.

He definately breaks 1000, and has double digit TD's as well

 

[nygiants56]

after being a perennial tease, AJ might be primed for the breakout season everyone envisioned happening last year..

if he was any other NFL player I wouldn't even consider drafting him, but with AJ's potential, I think you stay with him one more year...lets see what this new coaching staff does for the Texans offense..

on the high end, you could see 90-1260-9...

on the lower end of the scale, I think you'd at least see 70-980-7 ( barring injuries and missed games)

Moulds adds an instant air of credibilty to the Texans WR corps..

If Kubiak can get Jake 'the Fake' Plummer to play at a pro bowl level in Denver, I think he can do the same with Carr..

Let's not underestimate the ineptitude of the former coaching staff..Chris Palmer was considered a QB guru - he not only ruined Tim Couch's NFL career while coaching him in Cleveland, he almost did the same to Carr in Houston.

Dom Capers has failed as a head coach in both Carolina and Houston. He's such a good HC, he's now the defensive coordinator in Miami..good riddance, if you're a Texans fan.

I think you give AJ a 'mulligan' for last year and give him one more shot to prove himself as a top WR..

 

[stbugs]

I think Andre is an amazing talent and will be great in time, but this will be the first year in a totally new system. Too many things are changing to make this offense explosive overnight. I see an increase in production over last year but not a massive jump.

68 - 800 - 6

The TDs are higher, but that is not much at all more than he had last year when he missed four games (in week 5 he had 1 target and he left in the 1st Quarter) and played hurt the first 3 weeks. He basically only had 9 healthy games and in those 9 he had:53 - 612 - 2 which projects to 94 - 1088 - 4 closer to his 79 - 1142 - 6 2004 results

In his rookie year, notoriously bad for WRs this side of Boldin/Moss, also the first time in a totally new (ineffective) offensive system he had:

66 - 976 - 4

Are you predicting that the Kubiak offense is worse than Capers' or that he will get hurt? I think he is more inline for 85 - 1100 - 6 since I don't think he will miss any time as once he got over the injury last year he showed no ill effects at all.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

I think Andre is an amazing talent and will be great in time, but this will be the first year in a totally new system.  Too many things are changing to make this offense explosive overnight.  I see an increase in production over last year but not a massive jump.

68 - 800 - 6

The TDs are higher, but that is not much at all more than he had last year when he missed four games (in week 5 he had 1 target and he left in the 1st Quarter) and played hurt the first 3 weeks. He basically only had 9 healthy games and in those 9 he had:53 - 612 - 2 which projects to 94 - 1088 - 4 closer to his 79 - 1142 - 6 2004 results

In his rookie year, notoriously bad for WRs this side of Boldin/Moss, also the first time in a totally new (ineffective) offensive system he had:

66 - 976 - 4

Are you predicting that the Kubiak offense is worse than Capers' or that he will get hurt? I think he is more inline for 85 - 1100 - 6 since I don't think he will miss any time as once he got over the injury last year he showed no ill effects at all.

I am predicting that Moulds will see a large amout of action as well, and Domanick Davis will get his catches too. This is my quick breakdown of the Houston passing game:QB: ~3500 yds 16-17 tds.

Moulds: 900 yds, 5 Tds 975 yds

AJ: 800 yds 6 Tds 1025 yds

WR3: 245 yds 1 Td

TE 1&2: 45-430-2

Davis: 45-410-2

Other RB 10-80-0

It is possible some numbers I have down for others could go to AJ. I just figure there is a little more wealth to share but another really good WR and decent TE to share it with.

Edited to add bolded projections to reflect my math error......

 

[stbugs]

after being a perennial tease, AJ might be primed for the breakout season everyone envisioned happening last year..

if he was any other NFL player I wouldn't even consider drafting him, but with AJ's potential, I think you stay with him one more year...lets see what this new coaching staff does for the Texans offense..

on the high end, you could see 90-1260-9...

on the lower end of the scale, I think you'd at least see 70-980-7 ( barring injuries and missed games)

Moulds adds an instant air of credibilty to the Texans WR corps..

If Kubiak can get Jake 'the Fake' Plummer to play at a pro bowl level in Denver, I think he can do the same with Carr..

Let's not underestimate the ineptitude of the former coaching staff..Chris Palmer was considered a QB guru - he not only ruined Tim Couch's NFL career while coaching him in Cleveland, he almost did the same to Carr in Houston.

Dom Capers has failed as a head coach in both Carolina and Houston. He's such a good HC, he's now the defensive coordinator in Miami..good riddance, if you're a Texans fan.

I think you give AJ a 'mulligan' for last year and give him one more shot to prove himself as a top WR..

Perennial tease? He had almost 1000 yards his rookie year and ranked 23rd. There are very, very few rookie WRs that are even startable at all.Want to know how many rookie WRs have been in the top 25 since 2000? There are 3, Boldin, Clayton and AJ.

How about 2004? He was 22nd, but his 151 fantasy points would have ranked him in the range of 14th to 17th in every single year from 1996-2005, except 2004 which was a very high scoring WR year that has happened 2 times in all the years that FBGs has scoring for (1990-2005), once in 1995 and once in 2004.

To say he is a perennial tease and that we might want to stick it out with him another year is a stretch. Yes for the first 7 weeks of 2005 when he was hurt, he was worthless, but for the other 20 games in his 3 year career, he has been in the top 24, i.e. a WR2 in a 12 team league. My league and many other start 3 WR, so even if you might not give up on him, he is a starter in 12 team leagues.

Anyway, even if he never becomes a TO/Harrison top 10 stud, he will be a WR that will be starting for one team in almost every league for the foreseeable future.

 

[stbugs]

I think Andre is an amazing talent and will be great in time, but this will be the first year in a totally new system.  Too many things are changing to make this offense explosive overnight.  I see an increase in production over last year but not a massive jump.

68 - 800 - 6

The TDs are higher, but that is not much at all more than he had last year when he missed four games (in week 5 he had 1 target and he left in the 1st Quarter) and played hurt the first 3 weeks. He basically only had 9 healthy games and in those 9 he had:53 - 612 - 2 which projects to 94 - 1088 - 4 closer to his 79 - 1142 - 6 2004 results

In his rookie year, notoriously bad for WRs this side of Boldin/Moss, also the first time in a totally new (ineffective) offensive system he had:

66 - 976 - 4

Are you predicting that the Kubiak offense is worse than Capers' or that he will get hurt? I think he is more inline for 85 - 1100 - 6 since I don't think he will miss any time as once he got over the injury last year he showed no ill effects at all.

I am predicting that Moulds will see a large amout of action as well, and Domanick Davis will get his catches too. This is my quick breakdown of the Houston passing game:QB: ~3500 yds 16-17 tds.

Moulds: 900 yds, 5 Tds

AJ: 800 yds 6 Tds

WR3: 245 yds 1 Td

TE 1&2: 45-430-2

Davis: 45-410-2

Other RB 10-80-0

It is possible some numbers I have down for others could go to AJ. I just figure there is a little more wealth to share but another really good WR and decent TE to share it with.

Gotcha. I don't see Moulds getting more than AJ in any occurence, but I can see where you got your numbers. Although, your numbers there only add up to 2865, not 3500, so you are missing 600+ yards.Edit to Add: I do agree with the 3500 passing yards, closer to Carr's 2004 season (3531 I think?).

 

[Winning IS Everything]

I think Andre is an amazing talent and will be great in time, but this will be the first year in a totally new system.  Too many things are changing to make this offense explosive overnight.  I see an increase in production over last year but not a massive jump.

68 - 800 - 6

The TDs are higher, but that is not much at all more than he had last year when he missed four games (in week 5 he had 1 target and he left in the 1st Quarter) and played hurt the first 3 weeks. He basically only had 9 healthy games and in those 9 he had:53 - 612 - 2 which projects to 94 - 1088 - 4 closer to his 79 - 1142 - 6 2004 results

In his rookie year, notoriously bad for WRs this side of Boldin/Moss, also the first time in a totally new (ineffective) offensive system he had:

66 - 976 - 4

Are you predicting that the Kubiak offense is worse than Capers' or that he will get hurt? I think he is more inline for 85 - 1100 - 6 since I don't think he will miss any time as once he got over the injury last year he showed no ill effects at all.

I am predicting that Moulds will see a large amout of action as well, and Domanick Davis will get his catches too. This is my quick breakdown of the Houston passing game:QB: ~3500 yds 16-17 tds.

Moulds: 900 yds, 5 Tds

AJ: 800 yds 6 Tds

WR3: 245 yds 1 Td

TE 1&2: 45-430-2

Davis: 45-410-2

Other RB 10-80-0

It is possible some numbers I have down for others could go to AJ. I just figure there is a little more wealth to share but another really good WR and decent TE to share it with.

Gotcha. I don't see Moulds getting more than AJ in any occurence, but I can see where you got your numbers. Although, your numbers there only add up to 2865, not 3500, so you are missing 600+ yards.Edit to Add: I do agree with the 3500 passing yards, closer to Carr's 2004 season (3531 I think?).

Ah, thanks for catching my math error, I thought something did not add up right. I will have to refigure and update my AJ projection above. Thanks again!