Player Spotlight: Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts

Player Page Link: Andrew Luck Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections
  

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
  

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[pghrob]

Bump

 

[mjm3773]

I think Luck take a big leap forward this year.

Last year was an up and down year in terms of results for Luck. He set a rookie record for passing yards in a season, but it took him the 5th most passing attempts in the league to do so, resulting in only a 54% completion percentage. He threw for 23 TDs, but also threw 18 INTs, tied for 3rd most. He was sacked 41 times, 4th most in the league. He also seemed to hit the rookie wall. In his last four regular season games, he wasn't higher than 50% in any of those games and his yardage high was 205.

Last year's OC, Bruce Arians, is now the Head Coach in Arizona. Arians ran a vertical passing game that incorporated numerous 7-step drops. The Colts actually led the league in passes that went over 20 yards. The deep drops combined with what was regarded as a porous offensive line helped lead to those 41 sacks as well as the lower than average completion percentage.

Arians was replaced by Luck's OC from when he was at Stanford, Pep Hamilton. Hamilton plans to use a West Coast style offense, with more 3 and 5 step drops than last year, although he does plan on incorporating some parts of Arians's offense. The shorter drops, along with two new free agent starters on the offensive line, should help reduce the sacks and increase his completion percentage. It would probably also reduce the number of times Luck has to scramble for yards, although some of that may be offset by Hamilton's plan to also use the occasional read-option play.

In terms of weapons, Reggie Wayne is Mr. Old Reliable, although he may be getting to the age here he could fall off the cliff at any point. DHB provides an upgrade in a deep threat over Donnie Avery. Fellow second year players TY Hilton and TEs Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen should progress as receivers in the pro game. Hamilton also plans on using RBs more in the passing game this year.

Vick Ballard is a serviceable RB, but far from elite. The Colts offense clearly runs through Luck. GM Ryan Grigson has clearly tried to get Luck the weapons and OL protection he needs to blossom. I don't think he jumps up to the truly elite QBs this year, but does position himself at the top of tier 2.

380 completions

600 attempts

4500 yds

32 TDs

12 INTs

45 rushes

200 yds

4 TDs

 

[fightingillini]

Luck has a nice rookie campaign, but his efficiency wasn't that great. I can't see him chucking the ball as much as he did in 2012. But he will still be solid option at QB. I can take him as my everyweek starter if I had great RBs/WRs.4100 pass yds, 26 TD, 14 Int275 rush yds, 4 TD

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I think Luck take a big leap forward this year.Last year was an up and down year in terms of results for Luck. He set a rookie record for passing yards in a season, but it took him the 5th most passing attempts in the league to do so, resulting in only a 54% completion percentage. He threw for 23 TDs, but also threw 18 INTs, tied for 3rd most. He was sacked 41 times, 4th most in the league. He also seemed to hit the rookie wall. In his last four regular season games, he wasn't higher than 50% in any of those games and his yardage high was 205.Last year's OC, Bruce Arians, is now the Head Coach in Arizona. Arians ran a vertical passing game that incorporated numerous 7-step drops. The Colts actually led the league in passes that went over 20 yards. The deep drops combined with what was regarded as a porous offensive line helped lead to those 41 sacks as well as the lower than average completion percentage.Arians was replaced by Luck's OC from when he was at Stanford, Pep Hamilton. Hamilton plans to use a West Coast style offense, with more 3 and 5 step drops than last year, although he does plan on incorporating some parts of Arians's offense. The shorter drops, along with two new free agent starters on the offensive line, should help reduce the sacks and increase his completion percentage. It would probably also reduce the number of times Luck has to scramble for yards, although some of that may be offset by Hamilton's plan to also use the occasional read-option play.In terms of weapons, Reggie Wayne is Mr. Old Reliable, although he may be getting to the age here he could fall off the cliff at any point. DHB provides an upgrade in a deep threat over Donnie Avery. Fellow second year players TY Hilton and TEs Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen should progress as receivers in the pro game. Hamilton also plans on using RBs more in the passing game this year.Vick Ballard is a serviceable RB, but far from elite. The Colts offense clearly runs through Luck. GM Ryan Grigson has clearly tried to get Luck the weapons and OL protection he needs to blossom. I don't think he jumps up to the truly elite QBs this year, but does position himself at the top of tier 2.380 completions600 attempts4500 yds32 TDs12 INTs45 rushes200 yds4 TDs

I hope you're right but that's a crazy projection for a second year player. Those are Drew Brees numbers (4700/36).

As a Luck owner in a 16 team dynasty, I'd like to see his completion % go up a good chunk to give me confidence in his long-term projection. I think the new offense should help a ton but let's wait and see. I'm also not seeing DHB as a better deep option over Avery. He could be but he's far from proven.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I think if I was surprised by any facet of Luck’s rookie year performance, it was that his completion percentage was so low. Coming in a shade above 54% it pales in comparison to recent rookie year performances like:

Cam Newton: 60.0%
RGIII: 65.6%
Russell Wilson: 64.1%
Matt Ryan: 61.1%
Andy Dalton: 58.1%
Sam Bradford: 60.0%
Joe Flacco: 60.0%

This isn’t meant to knock Luck. In fact out of all of these rookie QB’s, I think Luck was asked to do the most out of all of them his rookie year and that’s really saying something because none of the QB’s are shrinking violets. To balance the stat above out, Luck’s Yards/Completion was 12.9 in 2012. Those rookie QB’s?

Newton: 13.1
RGIII: 12.4
Wilson: 12.4
Ryan: 13.0
Dalton: 11.3
Bradford: 9.9
Flacco: 11.6

Last season, Luck had 627 pass attempts with 339 completions and 4374 yards. With pass happy OC, Bruce Arians, off to Arizona…most expect that number to decrease. If Luck ratchets his completion rate up to 60% with the same amount of completions, he’d come down to 565 pass attempts which sounds reasonable. With the same amount of yards (4374), this would mean that Luck would come in at a 7.74 YPA.

However, if his completion rate stays in the 55% neighborhood and his attempts come down as well, using the 565 attempt baseline, that’s now 311 completions. If he maintains the same level of YPC (12.9), that would give him 4012 passing yards. When you consider Luck’s rushing ability (he led the Colts in rushing TD’s with 5)…it would appear as if Luck has a pretty high floor.

The one thing I worry about is the ‘2nd year thing’ with successful rookie QB’s. Newton, Ryan, Flacco & Bradford all experienced to some degree a regression of some sort. With all the QB’s listed noted for their work ethic and diligence, I can’t believe that this is due to any type of slacking off. The league simply adjusted to them. Also, I think the Colts are ripe for a bit of a come down. Of their 11 wins, 9 were by 7 points or less and 6 by 4 points or less. Do I feel comfortable with an offense that is going to lead with Vick Ballard in the run game? Do I think he has enough receivers to do significant damage from a passing TD perspective? A lot of what Luck has with the Colts is still in a very malleable state (Hilton, Fleener, Ballard, Allen, etc…) so I do think that a lot has to go right for Luck to make the next leap in the passing game. But with Luck’s mobility and his status as best goal line option, He’ll be a viable QB1 on the low end of the spectrum but I think his Year 2 upside is limited.

Prediction: 328 Completions 572 Attempts 4001 Passing Yards, 24 TD’s, 16 INT’s; 68 Rushes 288 Rushing Attempts 6 TD’s.

 

[donkshow]

I think if I was surprised by any facet of Luck’s rookie year performance, it was that his completion percentage was so low. Coming in a shade above 54% it pales in comparison to recent rookie year performances like:

Cam Newton: 60.0%

RGIII: 65.6%

Russell Wilson: 64.1%

Matt Ryan: 61.1%

Andy Dalton: 58.1%

Sam Bradford: 60.0%

Joe Flacco: 60.0%

This isn’t meant to knock Luck. In fact out of all of these rookie QB’s, I think Luck was asked to do the most out of all of them his rookie year and that’s really saying something because none of the QB’s are shrinking violets. To balance the stat above out, Luck’s Yards/Completion was 12.9 in 2012. Those rookie QB’s?

Newton: 13.1

RGIII: 12.4

Wilson: 12.4

Ryan: 13.0

Dalton: 11.3

Bradford: 9.9

Flacco: 11.6

Last season, Luck had 627 pass attempts with 339 completions and 4374 yards. With pass happy OC, Bruce Arians, off to Arizona…most expect that number to decrease. If Luck ratchets his completion rate up to 60% with the same amount of completions, he’d come down to 565 pass attempts which sounds reasonable. With the same amount of yards (4374), this would mean that Luck would come in at a 7.74 YPA.

However, if his completion rate stays in the 55% neighborhood and his attempts come down as well, using the 565 attempt baseline, that’s now 311 completions. If he maintains the same level of YPC (12.9), that would give him 4012 passing yards. When you consider Luck’s rushing ability (he led the Colts in rushing TD’s with 5)…it would appear as if Luck has a pretty high floor.

The one thing I worry about is the ‘2nd year thing’ with successful rookie QB’s. Newton, Ryan, Flacco & Bradford all experienced to some degree a regression of some sort. With all the QB’s listed noted for their work ethic and diligence, I can’t believe that this is due to any type of slacking off. The league simply adjusted to them. Also, I think the Colts are ripe for a bit of a come down. Of their 11 wins, 9 were by 7 points or less and 6 by 4 points or less. Do I feel comfortable with an offense that is going to lead with Vick Ballard in the run game? Do I think he has enough receivers to do significant damage from a passing TD perspective? A lot of what Luck has with the Colts is still in a very malleable state (Hilton, Fleener, Ballard, Allen, etc…) so I do think that a lot has to go right for Luck to make the next leap in the passing game. But with Luck’s mobility and his status as best goal line option, He’ll be a viable QB1 on the low end of the spectrum but I think his Year 2 upside is limited.

Prediction: 328 Completions 572 Attempts 4001 Passing Yards, 24 TD’s, 16 INT’s; 68 Rushes 288 Rushing Attempts 6 TD’s.

Very good post.

 

[UKColt]

As a Colts fan, I obviously saw alot of Andrew Luck last year and while his completion % was low, you have to take into context that he was playing in Air Arians with alot of 7-step drops and an appalling offensive line. He was pressured 302 times last year. Three hundred and two. That's nearly 50% of his dropbacks. He was sacked, hit and hurried more times than any other QB in the league. If it weren't for his frankly ridiculous pocket presence, his completion % would be worse.

Another thing to note is that Luck threw 36 passes last year that were subsequently dropped by the receiver. The top 2 WR in terms of drop rate were Avery and Hilton, tied at 16.67%. If half of those drops are eliminated, then it takes his QB accuracy to 57%.

Now that's not to say he didn't miss throws. Early in the season, his deep accuracy was very poor and there were several times that he missed players, mainly Fleener, down the seam. But this got better as he went along last year and now he's playing in an offense that will use far shorter drops, shallower routes and he has an improved offensive line.

I expect the offense to still run through Luck, as the running game isn't exactly dominant and the defense is still a work in progress. And at the end of the day, he's an elite QB talent. People always talk about getting the ball in the hands of their playmakers, and the Colts playmaker is Andrew Luck. I still think he throws around 600 times this year.

Passing: 366/4200/27/12 (61% completion)

Rushing: 60/250/4

QB1 numbers, and at a decent value in terms of his ADP (6th round, according to FBG)

 

[shader]

Luck is going to win some FF championships this year. Year 1 he threw down 4374 and 23. This year, he'll improve those numbers.

This guy was supposed to be a once-a-decade talent and in my opinion he showed that he was worth the hype despite a crazy season in Indy.

I like the weapons they added, and I think the year is going to do a guy like Luck wonders.

I expect Luck to shine and throw himself right into the mix for top 5 QB's in 2014. He makes the leap in year 2.

4800/34

 

[silentcoach]

I think he is undervalued at his current ADP of QB 11 because I think he is more likely to end up at qb 6 than he is to end up at qb 12.

His rushing stats are a bonus!

 

[silentcoach]

I think if I was surprised by any facet of Luck’s rookie year performance, it was that his completion percentage was so low. Coming in a shade above 54% it pales in comparison to recent rookie year performances like:

Cam Newton: 60.0%

RGIII: 65.6%

Russell Wilson: 64.1%

Matt Ryan: 61.1%

Andy Dalton: 58.1%

Sam Bradford: 60.0%

Joe Flacco: 60.0%

This isn’t meant to knock Luck. In fact out of all of these rookie QB’s, I think Luck was asked to do the most out of all of them his rookie year and that’s really saying something because none of the QB’s are shrinking violets. To balance the stat above out, Luck’s Yards/Completion was 12.9 in 2012. Those rookie QB’s?

Newton: 13.1

RGIII: 12.4

Wilson: 12.4

Ryan: 13.0

Dalton: 11.3

Bradford: 9.9

Flacco: 11.6

Last season, Luck had 627 pass attempts with 339 completions and 4374 yards. With pass happy OC, Bruce Arians, off to Arizona…most expect that number to decrease. If Luck ratchets his completion rate up to 60% with the same amount of completions, he’d come down to 565 pass attempts which sounds reasonable. With the same amount of yards (4374), this would mean that Luck would come in at a 7.74 YPA.

However, if his completion rate stays in the 55% neighborhood and his attempts come down as well, using the 565 attempt baseline, that’s now 311 completions. If he maintains the same level of YPC (12.9), that would give him 4012 passing yards. When you consider Luck’s rushing ability (he led the Colts in rushing TD’s with 5)…it would appear as if Luck has a pretty high floor.

The one thing I worry about is the ‘2nd year thing’ with successful rookie QB’s. Newton, Ryan, Flacco & Bradford all experienced to some degree a regression of some sort. With all the QB’s listed noted for their work ethic and diligence, I can’t believe that this is due to any type of slacking off. The league simply adjusted to them. Also, I think the Colts are ripe for a bit of a come down. Of their 11 wins, 9 were by 7 points or less and 6 by 4 points or less. Do I feel comfortable with an offense that is going to lead with Vick Ballard in the run game? Do I think he has enough receivers to do significant damage from a passing TD perspective? A lot of what Luck has with the Colts is still in a very malleable state (Hilton, Fleener, Ballard, Allen, etc…) so I do think that a lot has to go right for Luck to make the next leap in the passing game. But with Luck’s mobility and his status as best goal line option, He’ll be a viable QB1 on the low end of the spectrum but I think his Year 2 upside is limited.

Prediction: 328 Completions 572 Attempts 4001 Passing Yards, 24 TD’s, 16 INT’s; 68 Rushes 288 Rushing Attempts 6 TD’s.

Good post, but I think it is important to also show other rookie qbs that suffered in completion % the first year and how it increased the second year.

P.Manning completed 57% as a rookie and then 62% the following year.

McNabb went from 49% to 58% the second year.

Stafford went from 53% to 59% his second year (played only3 games, injury) and then 63% his first full second year.

Eli Manning's first season as a starter 53% to 58% the second year.

So, these numbers suggest that Luck can/will theoretically increase his completion percentage to at least 59% (most likely 60%) if you believe in his talent.

Also, note that P.Manning averaged 6.8 y/a, Eli 6.8, McNabb 5.9 y/a and Stafford 6 y/a. Luck averaged 7.0 y/a. I would not let his completion % from last year dictate the stats TOO much.

Dalton, who you point to, only averaged 6.6 y/a his rookie year, Flacco 6.9, Bradford 6.0..Luck, 7.0 and Luck did that while STILL throwing over 600 times as a rookie--nuts.

IMO Yards per attempt is more indicative than yards per completion.

 

[amicsta]

After finishing as the #9 QB last season in standard leagues (4 points per TD pass) as a rookie, it would be easy to expect Colts quarterback Andrew Luck to perform at least at that level again in 2013. I’m here to tell you that he won’t. Last season, Luck played in Bruce Arians’ vertical offense. Under Arians, the Colts attempted a pass 58.8 percent of the time and threw it 628 times total, good for 6th highest in the NFL. However, with Arians now the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals, he will no longer be calling the plays in Indianapolis. Instead, it will be former Stanford offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton running the show. Hamilton has shown more traditional west coast roots than Arians, and will be sure to run the ball more than the 37.2 percent the Colts did under Arians. While I think Luck’s completion percentage (54.1), yard per attempt (6.98), and TD/INT ratio (23/18) will all improve, his attempts should go down enough to prevent too much of an improvement in his production. Furthermore, while Luck’s rushing yards (255 in 2012) should remain relatively static, his rushing touchdowns (5) are sure to come down. I definitely think that Andrew Luck is the future of the NFL at quarterback, but fantasy owners need to temper expectations for the young signal caller in 2013.

Projection: 580 attempts x 7.2 YPA = 4,176 yards passing, 26 TD, 16 INT, 200 yards rushing, 2 rushing TD

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Are these rushing yards real? He doesn't seem likely to get that high of an amount again to me.

 

[Beerguzzler]

As a Colts fan, I obviously saw alot of Andrew Luck last year and while his completion % was low, you have to take into context that he was playing in Air Arians with alot of 7-step drops and an appalling offensive line. He was pressured 302 times last year. Three hundred and two. That's nearly 50% of his dropbacks. He was sacked, hit and hurried more times than any other QB in the league. If it weren't for his frankly ridiculous pocket presence, his completion % would be worse.

Another thing to note is that Luck threw 36 passes last year that were subsequently dropped by the receiver. The top 2 WR in terms of drop rate were Avery and Hilton, tied at 16.67%. If half of those drops are eliminated, then it takes his QB accuracy to 57%.

Now that's not to say he didn't miss throws. Early in the season, his deep accuracy was very poor and there were several times that he missed players, mainly Fleener, down the seam. But this got better as he went along last year and now he's playing in an offense that will use far shorter drops, shallower routes and he has an improved offensive line.

I expect the offense to still run through Luck, as the running game isn't exactly dominant and the defense is still a work in progress. And at the end of the day, he's an elite QB talent. People always talk about getting the ball in the hands of their playmakers, and the Colts playmaker is Andrew Luck. I still think he throws around 600 times this year.

Passing: 366/4200/27/12 (61% completion)

Rushing: 60/250/4

QB1 numbers, and at a decent value in terms of his ADP (6th round, according to FBG)

Why do you think the drop % will improve? None of his weapons have changed. His O line may have improved slightly, but it's definitely not an elite line. Bradshaw should help the running game if he's healthy.

I just don't see why the projections are so much better than last season. Losing Arians pass happiness surely isn't a positive for Luck.

Everything points to a worse statistical year than last season IMO. They may win more, but they should be a more balanced offense.

 

[Beerguzzler]

Luck is going to win some FF championships this year. Year 1 he threw down 4374 and 23. This year, he'll improve those numbers.

This guy was supposed to be a once-a-decade talent and in my opinion he showed that he was worth the hype despite a crazy season in Indy.

I like the weapons they added, and I think the year is going to do a guy like Luck wonders.

I expect Luck to shine and throw himself right into the mix for top 5 QB's in 2014. He makes the leap in year 2.

4800/34

Which are? DHB?

 

[Man of Zen]

As a Colts fan, I obviously saw alot of Andrew Luck last year and while his completion % was low, you have to take into context that he was playing in Air Arians with alot of 7-step drops and an appalling offensive line. He was pressured 302 times last year. Three hundred and two. That's nearly 50% of his dropbacks. He was sacked, hit and hurried more times than any other QB in the league. If it weren't for his frankly ridiculous pocket presence, his completion % would be worse.

Another thing to note is that Luck threw 36 passes last year that were subsequently dropped by the receiver. The top 2 WR in terms of drop rate were Avery and Hilton, tied at 16.67%. If half of those drops are eliminated, then it takes his QB accuracy to 57%.

Now that's not to say he didn't miss throws. Early in the season, his deep accuracy was very poor and there were several times that he missed players, mainly Fleener, down the seam. But this got better as he went along last year and now he's playing in an offense that will use far shorter drops, shallower routes and he has an improved offensive line.

I expect the offense to still run through Luck, as the running game isn't exactly dominant and the defense is still a work in progress. And at the end of the day, he's an elite QB talent. People always talk about getting the ball in the hands of their playmakers, and the Colts playmaker is Andrew Luck. I still think he throws around 600 times this year.

Passing: 366/4200/27/12 (61% completion)

Rushing: 60/250/4

QB1 numbers, and at a decent value in terms of his ADP (6th round, according to FBG)

Why do you think the drop % will improve? None of his weapons have changed. His O line may have improved slightly, but it's definitely not an elite line. Bradshaw should help the running game if he's healthy.

I just don't see why the projections are so much better than last season. Losing Arians pass happiness surely isn't a positive for Luck.

Everything points to a worse statistical year than last season IMO. They may win more, but they should be a more balanced offense.

Didn't I read somewhere that Arians' balance last year was 65/35 pass heavy, and the new Stanford guy's offense, last time he had Luck, was 45/55 the other way?

 

[silentcoach]

After finishing as the #9 QB last season in standard leagues (4 points per TD pass) as a rookie, it would be easy to expect Colts quarterback Andrew Luck to perform at least at that level again in 2013. I’m here to tell you that he won’t. Last season, Luck played in Bruce Arians’ vertical offense. Under Arians, the Colts attempted a pass 58.8 percent of the time and threw it 628 times total, good for 6th highest in the NFL. However, with Arians now the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals, he will no longer be calling the plays in Indianapolis. Instead, it will be former Stanford offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton running the show. Hamilton has shown more traditional west coast roots than Arians, and will be sure to run the ball more than the 37.2 percent the Colts did under Arians. While I think Luck’s completion percentage (54.1), yard per attempt (6.98), and TD/INT ratio (23/18) will all improve, his attempts should go down enough to prevent too much of an improvement in his production. Furthermore, while Luck’s rushing yards (255 in 2012) should remain relatively static, his rushing touchdowns (5) are sure to come down. I definitely think that Andrew Luck is the future of the NFL at quarterback, but fantasy owners need to temper expectations for the young signal caller in 2013.

Projection: 580 attempts x 7.2 YPA = 4,176 yards passing, 26 TD, 16 INT, 200 yards rushing, 2 rushing TD

This y/a make little sense if you think he is going from AIR Arians to westcoast--wouldn't you expect a higher YPA as a result?

He was 7.0 in his "let's go deep" offense I think 7.2 is selling him short when considering the change in offense and the reduction in attempts, especially if you think his completion percentage goes up.

 

[shader]

Luck is going to win some FF championships this year. Year 1 he threw down 4374 and 23. This year, he'll improve those numbers.

This guy was supposed to be a once-a-decade talent and in my opinion he showed that he was worth the hype despite a crazy season in Indy.

I like the weapons they added, and I think the year is going to do a guy like Luck wonders.

I expect Luck to shine and throw himself right into the mix for top 5 QB's in 2014. He makes the leap in year 2.

4800/34

Which are? DHB?

dhb, Ahmad Bradshaw, Pep Hamilton's offense, rookie interior linemen

 

[Bigboy10182000]

http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/1717108-indianapolis-colts-training-camp-check-list

Go to #2

 

[Pipes]

As a Colts fan, I obviously saw alot of Andrew Luck last year and while his completion % was low, you have to take into context that he was playing in Air Arians with alot of 7-step drops and an appalling offensive line. He was pressured 302 times last year. Three hundred and two. That's nearly 50% of his dropbacks. He was sacked, hit and hurried more times than any other QB in the league. If it weren't for his frankly ridiculous pocket presence, his completion % would be worse.

Another thing to note is that Luck threw 36 passes last year that were subsequently dropped by the receiver. The top 2 WR in terms of drop rate were Avery and Hilton, tied at 16.67%. If half of those drops are eliminated, then it takes his QB accuracy to 57%.

Now that's not to say he didn't miss throws. Early in the season, his deep accuracy was very poor and there were several times that he missed players, mainly Fleener, down the seam. But this got better as he went along last year and now he's playing in an offense that will use far shorter drops, shallower routes and he has an improved offensive line.

I expect the offense to still run through Luck, as the running game isn't exactly dominant and the defense is still a work in progress. And at the end of the day, he's an elite QB talent. People always talk about getting the ball in the hands of their playmakers, and the Colts playmaker is Andrew Luck. I still think he throws around 600 times this year.

Passing: 366/4200/27/12 (61% completion)

Rushing: 60/250/4

QB1 numbers, and at a decent value in terms of his ADP (6th round, according to FBG)

Why do you think the drop % will improve? None of his weapons have changed. His O line may have improved slightly, but it's definitely not an elite line. Bradshaw should help the running game if he's healthy. I just don't see why the projections are so much better than last season. Losing Arians pass happiness surely isn't a positive for Luck.

Everything points to a worse statistical year than last season IMO. They may win more, but they should be a more balanced offense.

TY Hilton has been working hard in the offseason on his hands. Rookie WRs often improve. I think Lucks yardage takes a slight hit with the more balance offense but his TDs will go up....int's should drop as well. I think he'll be a solid top 10 QB this year, especially since he should rush for a few TDs, but I don't see him cracking the top 5.

 

[Beerguzzler]

Luck is going to win some FF championships this year. Year 1 he threw down 4374 and 23. This year, he'll improve those numbers.

This guy was supposed to be a once-a-decade talent and in my opinion he showed that he was worth the hype despite a crazy season in Indy.

I like the weapons they added, and I think the year is going to do a guy like Luck wonders.

I expect Luck to shine and throw himself right into the mix for top 5 QB's in 2014. He makes the leap in year 2.

4800/34

Which are? DHB?

dhb, Ahmad Bradshaw, Pep Hamilton's offense, rookie interior linemen

The offense is a down grade. Bradshaw should help, but if he's running well, that's just less pass attempts. Rookie lineman are not an upgrade generally. DHB has been a bust so far in his career.

 

[silentcoach]

Luck is going to win some FF championships this year. Year 1 he threw down 4374 and 23. This year, he'll improve those numbers.

This guy was supposed to be a once-a-decade talent and in my opinion he showed that he was worth the hype despite a crazy season in Indy.

I like the weapons they added, and I think the year is going to do a guy like Luck wonders.

I expect Luck to shine and throw himself right into the mix for top 5 QB's in 2014. He makes the leap in year 2.

4800/34

Which are? DHB?

dhb, Ahmad Bradshaw, Pep Hamilton's offense, rookie interior linemen

The offense is a down grade. Bradshaw should help, but if he's running well, that's just less pass attempts. Rookie lineman are not an upgrade generally. DHB has been a bust so far in his career.

All that is just gravy to me. Honestly, if you think a QB is talented, he is simply going to get better the second season because the game slows down. He threw over 600 times, which has given him almost 1.25 -1.5 seasons worth of looks at a defense than most rookies who are thrown out to the wolves.

If you believe in his talent, he is a great pick. At pick 11 Luck is upside, imo because I think he has the TALENT to get the job done.

As long as he gets at least 550 attempts for the season, I really do not care what offense he is running!

 

[Beerguzzler]

Luck is going to win some FF championships this year. Year 1 he threw down 4374 and 23. This year, he'll improve those numbers.

This guy was supposed to be a once-a-decade talent and in my opinion he showed that he was worth the hype despite a crazy season in Indy.

I like the weapons they added, and I think the year is going to do a guy like Luck wonders.

I expect Luck to shine and throw himself right into the mix for top 5 QB's in 2014. He makes the leap in year 2.

4800/34

Which are? DHB?

dhb, Ahmad Bradshaw, Pep Hamilton's offense, rookie interior linemen

The offense is a down grade. Bradshaw should help, but if he's running well, that's just less pass attempts. Rookie lineman are not an upgrade generally. DHB has been a bust so far in his career.

All that is just gravy to me. Honestly, if you think a QB is talented, he is simply going to get better the second season because the game slows down. He threw over 600 times, which has given him almost 1.25 -1.5 seasons worth of looks at a defense than most rookies who are thrown out to the wolves.

If you believe in his talent, he is a great pick. At pick 11 Luck is upside, imo because I think he has the TALENT to get the job done.

As long as he gets at least 550 attempts for the season, I really do not care what offense he is running!

This is where I don't agree. The offense means everything. It's what turned Brees into the top passing QB in the league. It's what elevated Brady's game to HOF status. Arians last season was one of the most pass happy OC's there was. He had the 5th most attempts in the league and the worst efficiency. Now obviously I expect to see his efficiency improve, I'm just not as confident at some of the numbers that are being thrown out without a significant improvement in his supporting cast. If anything Reggie Wayne is a year older and potentially slower. Hilton is a nice complementary WR nothing more.

If the rumors that the offense is becoming more balanced/conservative, that really puts a crimp in his projections and will likely hurt his weekly consistency if he's not getting 35 pass attempts a week.

 

[maf005]

Time to revisit our expectations ROS for Andrew Luck.

If Indy's defense is better than we thought coming into the year, how does that effect Luck's value for the ROS? I believe a lot of projections had 35-40 pass attempts baked in as a result of shootouts. Now we have reason to believe that won't be necessary .

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

It's gonna be ground and pound now for Indy with Bradshaw and T-Rich - if they are up in the 2nd half they will skew heavily to the run. Luck's fantasy value is for sure capped now.

 

[maf005]

It's gonna be ground and pound now for Indy with Bradshaw and T-Rich - if they are up in the 2nd half they will skew heavily to the run. Luck's fantasy value is for sure capped now.

So you trust the Indy defense to consistently limit opposing offenses?

 

[shadyridr]

Barely a QB1 IMO

 

[oswizzle]

T-Rich is going to be a better Blocker than Runner

 

[maf005]

Currently QB7 (AROD had a bye)

QBs above Luck but with issues:

Vick is hurt.

Ryan lost Julio for the year.

Rivers is still a ? to many

QBs below Luck who could pass:

Stafford if Megatron is playing

RG3 as long as he can get trash time points

Brady?

Cam?

Kaep?

Pryor?

 

[Beerguzzler]

Told you guys. Pep loves to run the ball. Luck is a good QB, but he will hardly ever get a chance to sling it all over the field. The offense is not conducive for huge QB numbers.

The QBs that are slinging it right now are

Brees

Payton

Rivers

Rodgers

Those 4 IMO are a tier above everyone else based on their passing offenses being the focal points. (Payton prob in his own tier).

Romo just had a massive game that skews his numbers a bit, but he's in the next tier. Matty Ice gets a massive downgrade if Julio is out.

Then there's the next tier of QBs that includes Luck.

 

[Thews40]

Barely a QB1 IMO

Based on what? Luck has a running game now and a solid and healthy WR1 and 2. With a good D, Luck will wind up top 5 IMO. A smart QB that can run (instead of having to run) is gold.

 

[Beerguzzler]

Barely a QB1 IMO

Based on what? Luck has a running game now and a solid and healthy WR1 and 2. With a good D, Luck will wind up top 5 IMO. A smart QB that can run (instead of having to run) is gold.

Based on his current level of production. He's QB11 in my league atm.

 

[Man of Zen]

Barely a QB1 IMO

Based on what? Luck has a running game now and a solid and healthy WR1 and 2. With a good D, Luck will wind up top 5 IMO. A smart QB that can run (instead of having to run) is gold.

I don't think anyone's arguing he's not among the top tier of quarterbacks in the NFL -- an amazing accomplishment at his age, IMO, and probably a credit he deserves based on how he's playing -- he's just not in an offense that's going to let him open the floodgates...and he's in an NFL full of teams that are doing that for their QB's.

It's working for the Colts, so I don't see this changing in a big way any time real soon.

 

[need2know]

Barely a QB1 IMO

Based on what? Luck has a running game now and a solid and healthy WR1 and 2. With a good D, Luck will wind up top 5 IMO. A smart QB that can run (instead of having to run) is gold.

Based on his current level of production. He's QB11 in my league atm.

He's qb7 in mine. Exactly the price I paid for him. -3 for ints . I really like his consistency. Right around 20 pts a game with potential for more. I am happy.

 

[Buzzbait]

Barely a QB1 IMO

Based on what? Luck has a running game now and a solid and healthy WR1 and 2. With a good D, Luck will wind up top 5 IMO. A smart QB that can run (instead of having to run) is gold.

Based on his current level of production. He's QB11 in my league atm.

He's qb7 in mine. Exactly the price I paid for him. -3 for ints . I really like his consistency. Right around 20 pts a game with potential for more. I am happy.

He #6 in my standard scoring league and #7 in a performance scoring league. The data so far certainly backs that he is a QB1. He certainly isn't tier one but I don't think anyone drafted him with that notion. I think teams that drafted him are getting exactly what they expected and maybe even a little more.

 

[Pipes]

Barely a QB1 IMO

Based on what? Luck has a running game now and a solid and healthy WR1 and 2. With a good D, Luck will wind up top 5 IMO. A smart QB that can run (instead of having to run) is gold.

Based on his current level of production. He's QB11 in my league atm.

He's qb7 in mine. Exactly the price I paid for him. -3 for ints . I really like his consistency. Right around 20 pts a game with potential for more. I am happy.

This...He's QB 8 in mine and has been very consistent. No big spikes yet like Romo had last week but very solid. He'd be a top 5 QB in a different offense...the hurry up worked last week against Seattle so maybe they will open things up for him a little. Until that happens he's a mid level QB 1 at best.

 

[TheLurkerBelow]

I'm a very satisfied Luck owner. He's a solid producing QB1 each week and his auction price was very reasonable compared to the guys in the top 5. If you went with Luck as your QB, your strategy should have been to use your other auction dollars, or higher draft picks, to beat people at other positions. I do wish he'd throw a few more TDs, but even if he's stays on pace I'll be OK with that.

 

[donkshow]

IMO Luck will always be in the second tier of fantasy QBs until they open up the offence.

He'll be super consistent and get you 18-26pts a week. He won't go off for 400 and 4tds or anything but he also won't throw up single digits either. He will likely be a better NFL QB than a fantasy one, but still a very good QB1 moving forward.

Personally I like consistency at QB knowing what I am getting then gonna boom/bust at WR and lesser extent RB rather than a boom/bust QB.

As a Colts fan I couldn't be happier. His stats are also looking better because many QBs drafted high have been poor like Griffin Kaep Wilson Newton etc.

 

[maf005]

Indy's strategy of using a rush heavy attack for 3 quarters and falling behind only to realize they need to score points so they start passing is getting annoying.

Also, Wayne isn't getting open as much as we're used to seeing. I bet the FO addresses the #1 WR position this offseason in a major way