Player Spotlight: Ben Watson (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

[SIZE=14pt]2006 Player Spotlight Series[/SIZE]

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

[SIZE=14pt]Thread Topic: Ben Watson, TE, New England Patriots[/SIZE]

Player Page Link: Ben Watson Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

[SIZE=14pt]The Rules[/SIZE]

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the player

Projections should include (at a minimum):

[*]For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[SIZE=14pt]Best of Luck and ENJOY![/SIZE]

 

[Workhorse]

Watson, heading into his third year, seems to be poised for a breakout season. His athleticism is a real asset in the Patriots offense -- He's unguardable by any linebackers and he can overpower defensive backs. With Daniel Graham being used more and more in a blocking role, Watson will flourish as the primary "seam" target for Brady. Look for the Pats to use Watson as a zone buster early and often this coming season.

I'm projecting 49 catches, 690 yards, 7 TDs.

 

[wannabee]

Watson, heading into his third year, seems to be poised for a breakout season.  His athleticism is a real asset in the Patriots offense -- He's unguardable by any linebackers and he can overpower defensive backs.  With Daniel Graham being used more and more in a blocking role, Watson will flourish as the primary "seam" target for Brady.  Look for the Pats to use Watson as a zone buster early and often this coming season.

I'm projecting 49 catches, 690 yards, 7 TDs.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What does drafting two TEs do for Watson? I think it cuts his projections in half of where they might be.Subject to change:

40 catches, 550 yds, and 4 TDs

 

[Workhorse]

Watson, heading into his third year, seems to be poised for a breakout season.  His athleticism is a real asset in the Patriots offense -- He's unguardable by any linebackers and he can overpower defensive backs.  With Daniel Graham being used more and more in a blocking role, Watson will flourish as the primary "seam" target for Brady.  Look for the Pats to use Watson as a zone buster early and often this coming season.

I'm projecting 49 catches, 690 yards, 7 TDs.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What does drafting two TEs do for Watson? I think it cuts his projections in half of where they might be.

Subject to change:

40 catches, 550 yds, and 4 TDs

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well, more like one TE and one H-Back. It's pretty unlikely that Dave Thomas makes much of an impact as a rookie. It may take him a year or two to get acclimated to the system.

 

[wannabee]

Watson, heading into his third year, seems to be poised for a breakout season.  His athleticism is a real asset in the Patriots offense -- He's unguardable by any linebackers and he can overpower defensive backs.  With Daniel Graham being used more and more in a blocking role, Watson will flourish as the primary "seam" target for Brady.  Look for the Pats to use Watson as a zone buster early and often this coming season.

I'm projecting 49 catches, 690 yards, 7 TDs.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What does drafting two TEs do for Watson? I think it cuts his projections in half of where they might be.

Subject to change:

40 catches, 550 yds, and 4 TDs

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well, more like one TE and one H-Back. It's pretty unlikely that Dave Thomas makes much of an impact as a rookie. It may take him a year or two to get acclimated to the system.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I would not underestimate he or Mills. Both are very good catching, maybe not with the pure athletic ability of Watson, but good TEs nonetheless.

 

[chewybip]

62 catches, 800yds, 7 td.

i really see him as a tom's major go to.

i see him in the top 5 with my estimates being low.

 

[Bri]

Wow seems early but so great to see these already

 

[Jason Wood]

It seems like Bill Belichick can never have enough tight end/H-backs on the roster. Although Christian Fauria is gone, the team still has Daniel Graham (16/235/3 in 11 games), Patrick Pass (22/227 in 12 games), and drafted Mills and Thomas.

It's tough for me to buy into the notion that Watson is going to magically emerge as a consistent fantasy TE as many are projecting. He caught 2 or fewer passes in 10 games, and scored in only three contests. The Patriots are masters of spreading the ball around, and aside from freakish athleticism (Watson's combine was arguably the best by a TE in history until Vernon Davis came along), what has Watson shown to project him as an elite fantasy factor?

 

[Workhorse]

It seems like Bill Belichick can never have enough tight end/H-backs on the roster. Although Christian Fauria is gone, the team still has Daniel Graham (16/235/3 in 11 games), Patrick Pass (22/227 in 12 games), and drafted Mills and Thomas.

It's tough for me to buy into the notion that Watson is going to magically emerge as a consistent fantasy TE as many are projecting. He caught 2 or fewer passes in 10 games, and scored in only three contests. The Patriots are masters of spreading the ball around, and aside from freakish athleticism (Watson's combine was arguably the best by a TE in history until Vernon Davis came along), what has Watson shown to project him as an elite fantasy factor?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But most of the games when Watson was a non-factor was in the first half of the season. It took him a while to get back into the swing of things after his 2004 injury.I'd say his emergence in the second half of the season might be an indicator of Watson's bright future.

First 7 games: 7 catches, 134 yards, 1 TD

Then...

Next 10 games: 27 catches, 398 yards, 4 TDs

Since the Pats really don't have a legit #2 WR (unless Chad Jackson emerges early in the season), I could see Watson being a main target for Brady.

 

[Jason Wood]

It seems like Bill Belichick can never have enough tight end/H-backs on the roster. Although Christian Fauria is gone, the team still has Daniel Graham (16/235/3 in 11 games), Patrick Pass (22/227 in 12 games), and drafted Mills and Thomas.

It's tough for me to buy into the notion that Watson is going to magically emerge as a consistent fantasy TE as many are projecting. He caught 2 or fewer passes in 10 games, and scored in only three contests. The Patriots are masters of spreading the ball around, and aside from freakish athleticism (Watson's combine was arguably the best by a TE in history until Vernon Davis came along), what has Watson shown to project him as an elite fantasy factor?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But most of the games when Watson was a non-factor was in the first half of the season. It took him a while to get back into the swing of things after his 2004 injury.I'd say his emergence in the second half of the season might be an indicator of Watson's bright future.

First 7 games: 7 catches, 134 yards, 1 TD

Averages:

Then...

Next 10 games: 27 catches, 398 yards, 4 TDs

Since the Pats really don't have a legit #2 WR (unless Chad Jackson emerges early in the season), I could see Watson being a main target for Brady.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm just not sure I see why we should discount seven and count ten. And while I agree the Patriots have no true WR2, why shouldn't we presume Graham, Mills, Pass, Dillon, et al...will see increased passes thrown their way too?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

A key factor that I feel have to keep bringing up with in analysis of Watson is that last year was basically his rookie year. We all know that TEs are more like WRs/QBs than RBs in that it usually takes them at least one season to get up to full speed. What we saw last year from Watson just the tip of the iceberg. The Pats did not draft him in the first round to be another guy in a wide array of targets, they drafted him to be a go-to receiver.

Some stats that I think point to big things for Watson:

1) Best YPC of any TE with over 25 catches: 15.2

2) 1 TD for every 7.25 catches, 2nd to only Heath Miller among TEs with over 25 catches.

3) a strong performance in the 2nd half of the year that projects out to 38/540/6 over a full season. I would put that as the bottom for his projections.

Very few TEs have the YAC ability of Watson, and he is still developing as a receiver. This should be a breakout year for him.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

It seems like Bill Belichick can never have enough tight end/H-backs on the roster. Although Christian Fauria is gone, the team still has Daniel Graham (16/235/3 in 11 games), Patrick Pass (22/227 in 12 games), and drafted Mills and Thomas.

It's tough for me to buy into the notion that Watson is going to magically emerge as a consistent fantasy TE as many are projecting. He caught 2 or fewer passes in 10 games, and scored in only three contests. The Patriots are masters of spreading the ball around, and aside from freakish athleticism (Watson's combine was arguably the best by a TE in history until Vernon Davis came along), what has Watson shown to project him as an elite fantasy factor?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But most of the games when Watson was a non-factor was in the first half of the season. It took him a while to get back into the swing of things after his 2004 injury.I'd say his emergence in the second half of the season might be an indicator of Watson's bright future.

First 7 games: 7 catches, 134 yards, 1 TD

Averages:

Then...

Next 10 games: 27 catches, 398 yards, 4 TDs

Since the Pats really don't have a legit #2 WR (unless Chad Jackson emerges early in the season), I could see Watson being a main target for Brady.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm just not sure I see why we should discount seven and count ten. And while I agree the Patriots have no true WR2, why shouldn't we presume Graham, Mills, Pass, Dillon, et al...will see increased passes thrown their way too?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Because Watson was basically starting 2005 as a rookie. Rookie TEs acclimate as the year goes on. The trajectory of Chris Cooley's rookie year (04) and Watson's 2005 are eerily similar.

 

[Phlash]

The Patriots have no true #1 WR. Watson is worse than Graham at blocking, so he tends to get sent out in patterns a lot more. He possesses fantastic hands (he made some acrobatic catches that made me jump out of my seat last year) and you have to remember that it was his first year playing NFL football, with his injury keeping him out the entire 2004-2005 season. I expect him to build on his second half of the season and really get the ball rolling in '06

My projection:

65/840/8

Brady loves this guy. I expect him to do well because of this fact.

 

[Jason Wood]

A key factor that I feel have to keep bringing up with in analysis of Watson is that last year was basically his rookie year. We all know that TEs are more like WRs/QBs than RBs in that it usually takes them at least one season to get up to full speed. What we saw last year from Watson just the tip of the iceberg. The Pats did not draft him in the first round to be another guy in a wide array of targets, they drafted him to be a go-to receiver.

Some stats that I think point to big things for Watson:

1) Best YPC of any TE with over 25 catches: 15.2

2) 1 TD for every 7.25 catches, 2nd to only Heath Miller among TEs with over 25 catches.

3) a strong performance in the 2nd half of the year that projects out to 38/540/6 over a full season. I would put that as the bottom for his projections.

Very few TEs have the YAC ability of Watson, and he is still developing as a receiver. This should be a breakout year for him.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

An interesting take, but history suggests his 15.2 YPC won't be maintained, particularly if he gets an increased workload as you postulate. I could see 40+ catches, but for more like 12-13 YPC (and that's quite generous).

 

[Workhorse]

It seems like Bill Belichick can never have enough tight end/H-backs on the roster. Although Christian Fauria is gone, the team still has Daniel Graham (16/235/3 in 11 games), Patrick Pass (22/227 in 12 games), and drafted Mills and Thomas.

It's tough for me to buy into the notion that Watson is going to magically emerge as a consistent fantasy TE as many are projecting. He caught 2 or fewer passes in 10 games, and scored in only three contests. The Patriots are masters of spreading the ball around, and aside from freakish athleticism (Watson's combine was arguably the best by a TE in history until Vernon Davis came along), what has Watson shown to project him as an elite fantasy factor?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But most of the games when Watson was a non-factor was in the first half of the season. It took him a while to get back into the swing of things after his 2004 injury.I'd say his emergence in the second half of the season might be an indicator of Watson's bright future.

First 7 games: 7 catches, 134 yards, 1 TD

Averages:

Then...

Next 10 games: 27 catches, 398 yards, 4 TDs

Since the Pats really don't have a legit #2 WR (unless Chad Jackson emerges early in the season), I could see Watson being a main target for Brady.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm just not sure I see why we should discount seven and count ten. And while I agree the Patriots have no true WR2, why shouldn't we presume Graham, Mills, Pass, Dillon, et al...will see increased passes thrown their way too?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Not really discounting, more illuminating. I watched every game, and you could see Watson's emergence as the season progressed. It makes sense, since Belichick has long said that Tight End is probably the most difficult position to master in the Patriots offense, due to the number of tasks that they are expected to perform:

Last Friday, coach Bill Belichick explained that in New England's offense, tight end is probably the second-hardest position to master behind quarterback. Because the Patriots usually have a single man in the backfield, the tight ends are asked to perform many functions. Line up in the backfield and pick up blitzes. Act as sixth and seventh offensive linemen, especially in short-yardage situations. Scurry into the middle of the field to take pressure off the downfield receivers.

Since Watson was hurt in 2004, it took him half a season to really "get" the playbook. With another year of experience, I'm expecting Watson to become a realistic fantasy option this coming season. He's got all the tools. And none of them are whiney.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

A key factor that I feel have to keep bringing up with in analysis of Watson is that last year was basically his rookie year. We all know that TEs are more like WRs/QBs than RBs in that it usually takes them at least one season to get up to full speed. What we saw last year from Watson just the tip of the iceberg. The Pats did not draft him in the first round to be another guy in a wide array of targets, they drafted him to be a go-to receiver.

Some stats that I think point to big things for Watson:

1) Best YPC of any TE with over 25 catches: 15.2

2) 1 TD for every 7.25 catches, 2nd to only Heath Miller among TEs with over 25 catches.

3) a strong performance in the 2nd half of the year that projects out to 38/540/6 over a full season. I would put that as the bottom for his projections.

Very few TEs have the YAC ability of Watson, and he is still developing as a receiver. This should be a breakout year for him.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

An interesting take, but history suggests his 15.2 YPC won't be maintained, particularly if he gets an increased workload as you postulate. I could see 40+ catches, but for more like 12-13 YPC (and that's quite generous).
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sure, but his YPC points to rare big play ability for a TE - thats what Im really getting at.

 

[Jason Wood]

A key factor that I feel have to keep bringing up with in analysis of Watson is that last year was basically his rookie year. We all know that TEs are more like WRs/QBs than RBs in that it usually takes them at least one season to get up to full speed. What we saw last year from Watson just the tip of the iceberg. The Pats did not draft him in the first round to be another guy in a wide array of targets, they drafted him to be a go-to receiver.

Some stats that I think point to big things for Watson:

1) Best YPC of any TE with over 25 catches: 15.2

2) 1 TD for every 7.25 catches, 2nd to only Heath Miller among TEs with over 25 catches.

3) a strong performance in the 2nd half of the year that projects out to 38/540/6 over a full season. I would put that as the bottom for his projections.

Very few TEs have the YAC ability of Watson, and he is still developing as a receiver. This should be a breakout year for him.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

An interesting take, but history suggests his 15.2 YPC won't be maintained, particularly if he gets an increased workload as you postulate. I could see 40+ catches, but for more like 12-13 YPC (and that's quite generous).
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sure, but his YPC points to rare big play ability for a TE - thats what Im really getting at.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

A fair point...But under the Brady/Belichick era, New England tight ends haven't exactly been uber productive. Daniel Graham's 38 receptions in 2003 is the benchmark (no one else has had more than 30).

 

[David Yudkin]

To add some fuel to the debate, there has been some talk here in New England of the Pats utilizing Watson some as a slot WR to help get him more space off of the line without getting caught up in the fray at the line of scrimmage. The team iteself has been pretty tight lipped about this, and most of what I have seen or heard was from beat writers relaying whispers they heard with no one wanting to go on record to confirm it. Whether this means anything or not is anyone's guess, but I suspect that Watson will see more targets this year than last year given that Givens is gone, Jackson's a rookie, and Caldwell doesn't know the system.

I was surprised to see the Pats take TWO tight ends in the draft. This maneuver could mean that they don't intend on giving Daniel Graham a market value contract offer (his contract expires after this season) and certainly gives the team some leverage to negotiate with.

As for Watson's numbers, I'll have to give that some thought (I'll be writing the Player Spotlight), but the Pats have been pretty consistent in total TE numbers the past few years, generally 55-65 receptions, around 700 yards, and 8-9 TD. I don't see the total numbers changing all that much (maybe a slight bump), but I don't see Watson becoming an elite TE this year (although he should still show some marked improvement compared to last year).

 

[Phlash]

A key factor that I feel have to keep bringing up with in analysis of Watson is that last year was basically his rookie year. We all know that TEs are more like WRs/QBs than RBs in that it usually takes them at least one season to get up to full speed. What we saw last year from Watson just the tip of the iceberg. The Pats did not draft him in the first round to be another guy in a wide array of targets, they drafted him to be a go-to receiver.

Some stats that I think point to big things for Watson:

1) Best YPC of any TE with over 25 catches: 15.2

2) 1 TD for every 7.25 catches, 2nd to only Heath Miller among TEs with over 25 catches.

3) a strong performance in the 2nd half of the year that projects out to 38/540/6 over a full season. I would put that as the bottom for his projections.

Very few TEs have the YAC ability of Watson, and he is still developing as a receiver. This should be a breakout year for him.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

An interesting take, but history suggests his 15.2 YPC won't be maintained, particularly if he gets an increased workload as you postulate. I could see 40+ catches, but for more like 12-13 YPC (and that's quite generous).
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sure, but his YPC points to rare big play ability for a TE - thats what Im really getting at.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

A fair point...But under the Brady/Belichick era, New England tight ends haven't exactly been uber productive. Daniel Graham's 38 receptions in 2003 is the benchmark (no one else has had more than 30).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You have to remember, though, that O-line injuries have kept Graham protecting Brady's #### every season. At the beginning of one year, he had a 5 TD in 4 game run until the O-line injuries piled up and he went back to blocking.Watson won't block. They're going to use his athletisicm in any way possible. He should produce some big numbers when Brady starts keying in on him.

 

[gman8343]

To add some fuel to the debate, there has been some talk here in New England of the Pats utilizing Watson some as a slot WR to help get him more space off of the line without getting caught up in the fray at the line of scrimmage.  The team iteself has been pretty tight lipped about this, and most of what I have seen or heard was from beat writers relaying whispers they heard with no one wanting to go on record to confirm it.  Whether this means anything or not is anyone's guess, but I suspect that Watson will see more targets this year than last year given that Givens is gone, Jackson's a rookie, and Caldwell doesn't know the system.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Great info here

 

[gang-wars]

To add some fuel to the debate, there has been some talk here in New England of the Pats utilizing Watson some as a slot WR to help get him more space off of the line without getting caught up in the fray at the line of scrimmage.  The team iteself has been pretty tight lipped about this, and most of what I have seen or heard was from beat writers relaying whispers they heard with no one wanting to go on record to confirm it.  Whether this means anything or not is anyone's guess, but I suspect that Watson will see more targets this year than last year given that Givens is gone, Jackson's a rookie, and Caldwell doesn't know the system.

I was surprised to see the Pats take TWO tight ends in the draft.  This maneuver could mean that they don't intend on giving Daniel Graham a market value contract offer (his contract expires after this season) and certainly gives the team some leverage to negotiate with.

As for Watson's numbers, I'll have to give that some thought (I'll be writing the Player Spotlight), but the Pats have been pretty consistent in total TE numbers the past few years, generally 55-65 receptions, around 700 yards, and 8-9 TD.  I don't see the total numbers changing all that much (maybe a slight bump), but I don't see Watson becoming an elite TE this year (although he should still show some marked improvement compared to last year).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This is what Dallas Clark starting doing in some games for the Colts. (stokley sat most of the game)The bad part is we probably won't know their plans until the season starts.

 

[carlosnphilly]

To add some fuel to the debate, there has been some talk here in New England of the Pats utilizing Watson some as a slot WR to help get him more space off of the line without getting caught up in the fray at the line of scrimmage.  The team iteself has been pretty tight lipped about this, and most of what I have seen or heard was from beat writers relaying whispers they heard with no one wanting to go on record to confirm it.  Whether this means anything or not is anyone's guess, but I suspect that Watson will see more targets this year than last year given that Givens is gone, Jackson's a rookie, and Caldwell doesn't know the system.

I was surprised to see the Pats take TWO tight ends in the draft.  This maneuver could mean that they don't intend on giving Daniel Graham a market value contract offer (his contract expires after this season) and certainly gives the team some leverage to negotiate with.

As for Watson's numbers, I'll have to give that some thought (I'll be writing the Player Spotlight), but the Pats have been pretty consistent in total TE numbers the past few years, generally 55-65 receptions, around 700 yards, and 8-9 TD.  I don't see the total numbers changing all that much (maybe a slight bump), but I don't see Watson becoming an elite TE this year (although he should still show some marked improvement compared to last year).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't live in NE, but I thought they'd be doing this before the draft occurred (putting Watson in the slot). The draft only strengthened my belief that they will (taking multiple TE's).I don't think he'll be elite this year either, but a nice sized breakout is coming. It's hard not to like Watson's future given he's going to have the same QB for years to come.

 

[commisholio]

In any discussion of Patriot tight ends, you must take into account their tendency to throw short TDs to random people like Vrabel. I can't see how Watson is going to score 7+ TDs without getting at least a few short ones.

 

[Biabreakable]

I really like Watson and I can see him getting the 2nd most targets from Brady after Branch with Givens gone.

However the Patriots drafting 2 more TEs fairly early has given me pause about his role in the offense. It looks to be more diversified than I was thinking it would be before this.

I still like Watson to get the 2nd most targets from Brady in 2006. However I now think there will not be as great a gap between 2nd in targets and 3rd-5th as I was thinking before.

Watson is still a value pick if taken late enough in redraft but I do not see him competing for top 5 anymore. Not so much because I think the rookie TEs will have a lot of targets themselves but more because of how I see this reflecting on how they want to run thier offense.

If the Patriots had just taken Jackson then focused on other areas during the draft I would see them moving to a more traditional type of offense that feeds 2 WRs and 1 TE primarily. With some 3 WR mixed in at times instead of 2 TE set. But with not one but 2 early picks used on TE/HB/FB prospects I see the offense being more diversified. This will limit what I think Watson is capable of through no fault of his own.

I see him as being a weak starting TE option now. EOY stats being somewhere in the TE 9-16 range.

I also agree with previous poster about the lack of red zone targets for him due to diversification which limits his TD potential.

ETA- I can still see Watson having a very good year in 2006 if the rookies are slow to develop. He could be a strong play early in the season. But due to the depth at the position now I don't like his long term prospects as well. So from a dynasty perspective I would be looking to sell him high early on in the season.

I do think he is a great talent. But my opinion about his situation and role has changed dramaticly after the draft. I think he could better reach his potential if playing on another team now. The draft picks may be signaling that the Patriots will not pay fair value to keep him or Grahm when thier contracts expire.

 

[Couch Potato]

I think many here are misreading the drafting of the rookie TEs and their effect on Watson. Rather than hurting Watson's numbers, I believe (as Yudkin mentioned) the Pats are preparing for the departure of Graham after 2006 and it'll take time for them to be ready. I think the two rookies' impact on TE receptions in 2006 will be negligible.

Either that or they plan to move Watson to safety after we all saw the way he closed on and popped Champ Bailey in the playoffs!

I see Watson getting more targets, more catches, and a lower YPC than last year. I think he'll be in effect WR2b for the Pats and have numbers something like 48-600-12.5-6

 

[Boston]

I really like Watson and I can see him getting the 2nd most targets from Brady after Branch with Givens gone.

However the Patriots drafting 2 more TEs fairly early has given me pause about his role in the offense. It looks to be more diversified than I was thinking it would be before this.

I still like Watson to get the 2nd most targets from Brady in 2006. However I now think there will not be as great a gap between 2nd in targets and 3rd-5th as I was thinking before.

Watson is still a value pick if taken late enough in redraft but I do not see him competing for top 5 anymore. Not so much because I think the rookie TEs will have a lot of targets themselves but more because of how I see this reflecting on how they want to run thier offense.

If the Patriots had just taken Jackson then focused on other areas during the draft I would see them moving to a more traditional type of offense that feeds 2 WRs and 1 TE primarily. With some 3 WR mixed in at times instead of 2 TE set. But with not one but 2 early picks used on TE/HB/FB prospects I see the offense being more diversified. This will limit what I think Watson is capable of through no fault of his own.

I see him as being a weak starting TE option now. EOY stats being somewhere in the TE 9-16 range.

I also agree with previous poster about the lack of red zone targets for him due to diversification which limits his TD potential.

ETA- I can still see Watson having a very good year in 2006 if the rookies are slow to develop. He could be a strong play early in the season. But due to the depth at the position now I don't like his long term prospects as well. So from a dynasty perspective I would be looking to sell him high early on in the season.

I do think he is a great talent. But my opinion about his situation and role has changed dramaticly after the draft. I think he could better reach his potential if playing on another team now. The draft picks may be signaling that the Patriots will not pay fair value to keep him or Grahm when thier contracts expire.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Good post. I agree with everything except the last sentence which I strongly disagree with. Watson has three or four years left on his deal so drafting Thomas and Mills has zero to do with that. They drafted those guys because of what they bring to the table both now and the future regardless of what happens to Graham or Watson. Any offensive weapon weapon in the Pats passing game is probably not going to put up big numbers. That's just how BB operates and it plays right into the strength of Brady. This philosophy has been successful in the past and will continue to be successful in the future but it has nothing to do with fair value for any player's contract.

 

[Boston]

A key factor that I feel have to keep bringing up with in analysis of Watson is that last year was basically his rookie year. We all know that TEs are more like WRs/QBs than RBs in that it usually takes them at least one season to get up to full speed. What we saw last year from Watson just the tip of the iceberg. The Pats did not draft him in the first round to be another guy in a wide array of targets, they drafted him to be a go-to receiver.

Some stats that I think point to big things for Watson:

1) Best YPC of any TE with over 25 catches: 15.2

2) 1 TD for every 7.25 catches, 2nd to only Heath Miller among TEs with over 25 catches.

3) a strong performance in the 2nd half of the year that projects out to 38/540/6 over a full season. I would put that as the bottom for his projections.

Very few TEs have the YAC ability of Watson, and he is still developing as a receiver. This should be a breakout year for him.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

An interesting take, but history suggests his 15.2 YPC won't be maintained, particularly if he gets an increased workload as you postulate. I could see 40+ catches, but for more like 12-13 YPC (and that's quite generous).
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sure, but his YPC points to rare big play ability for a TE - thats what Im really getting at.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

A fair point...But under the Brady/Belichick era, New England tight ends haven't exactly been uber productive. Daniel Graham's 38 receptions in 2003 is the benchmark (no one else has had more than 30).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You have to remember, though, that O-line injuries have kept Graham protecting Brady's #### every season. At the beginning of one year, he had a 5 TD in 4 game run until the O-line injuries piled up and he went back to blocking.Watson won't block. They're going to use his athletisicm in any way possible. He should produce some big numbers when Brady starts keying in on him.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

While Watson's main strength is in the receiving game he definetly will block. While not the blocker Graham is he is very good. The bottomline is there is absolutely no way any TE that plays for BB will not be expected to be highly involved in the blocking game.As for Graham the Pats don't fully trust his hands. Any Patriot fan will tell you that while he can make spectacular plays he drops far too many easy ones and has since day 1. He will always be a factor in the passing game but his upside is nowhere near Watson's in that area.

 

[gang-wars]

Also what happens if Branch gets hurt? Is Watson a starting WR?

 

[Boston]

Also what happens if Branch gets hurt? Is Watson a starting WR?

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I just don't see that happening at all. One of the big benefits of Watson is he is a TE who has the athletic ability to split out wide, behind the QB or as a normal TE. Since BB lives for mismatches this is incredibly valuable to the Pats. Yet, you lose that value if you were to simply split him out wide all the time. You would not be surprising the defense and would make it far more easier to prepare for the Pats offense.While Givens loss will hurt the Pats WR corps can not be thinner than it was last year. Outside of Givens and Branch and Troy to a certain extent they got nothing from their other WRs. Davis showed no ability other than running one simple route and while Dwight is an easy guy to root for he's not very good. Hopefully Caldwell and Jackson can compliment Branch and Brown is still around. Unless another WR is brought in look for the #5 slot to be a battle between Bethel, Bam Childress.

 

[Biabreakable]

I really like Watson and I can see him getting the 2nd most targets from Brady after Branch with Givens gone.

However the Patriots drafting 2 more TEs fairly early has given me pause about his role in the offense. It looks to be more diversified than I was thinking it would be before this.

I still like Watson to get the 2nd most targets from Brady in 2006. However I now think there will not be as great a gap between 2nd in targets and 3rd-5th as I was thinking before.

Watson is still a value pick if taken late enough in redraft but I do not see him competing for top 5 anymore. Not so much because I think the rookie TEs will have a lot of targets themselves but more because of how I see this reflecting on how they want to run thier offense.

If the Patriots had just taken Jackson then focused on other areas during the draft I would see them moving to a more traditional type of offense that feeds 2 WRs and 1 TE primarily. With some 3 WR mixed in at times instead of 2 TE set. But with not one but 2 early picks used on TE/HB/FB prospects I see the offense being more diversified. This will limit what I think Watson is capable of through no fault of his own.

I see him as being a weak starting TE option now. EOY stats being somewhere in the TE 9-16 range.

I also agree with previous poster about the lack of red zone targets for him due to diversification which limits his TD potential.

ETA- I can still see Watson having a very good year in 2006 if the rookies are slow to develop. He could be a strong play early in the season. But due to the depth at the position now I don't like his long term prospects as well. So from a dynasty perspective I would be looking to sell him high early on in the season.

I do think he is a great talent. But my opinion about his situation and role has changed dramaticly after the draft. I think he could better reach his potential if playing on another team now. The draft picks may be signaling that the Patriots will not pay fair value to keep him or Grahm when thier contracts expire.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Good post. I agree with everything except the last sentence which I strongly disagree with. Watson has three or four years left on his deal so drafting Thomas and Mills has zero to do with that. They drafted those guys because of what they bring to the table both now and the future regardless of what happens to Graham or Watson. Any offensive weapon weapon in the Pats passing game is probably not going to put up big numbers. That's just how BB operates and it plays right into the strength of Brady. This philosophy has been successful in the past and will continue to be successful in the future but it has nothing to do with fair value for any player's contract.
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I didn't know that Watson signed such a long term contract. I was thinking he signed a ushual 3-4 year deal that most rookies do and he is in the 3rd year of it.That certainly adds another wrinkle to assesing his role moving forward. Thanks for the info. And perhaps I should not sour on him as a sell high prospect because of this. I really think he can put up very good numbers being a primary target for Brady. If his contract is solid for the next 3 years then I do see him as being Bradys 2nd choice for targets at least until Jackson overtakes him if he does.

Reassesing...

As far as my use of the words fair value my meaning is more that the Patriots do not commit as much money to thier best skills players as other teams do. The patriots front office has definitly been ahead of the curve of other teams. So I'm not saying thier approach to this in wrong or anything like that. Just that they do business differently. Javon Walker and David Givens being the recent examples of this.

 

[gang-wars]

I didn't know that Watson signed such a long term contract. I was thinking he signed a ushual 3-4 year deal that most rookies do and he is in the 3rd year of it.

That certainly adds another wrinkle to assesing his role moving forward. Thanks for the info. And perhaps I should not sour on him as a sell high prospect because of this. I really think he can put up very good numbers being a primary target for Brady. If his contract is solid for the next 3 years then I do see him as being Bradys 2nd choice for targets at least until Jackson overtakes him if he does.

Reassesing...

As far as my use of the words fair value my meaning is more that the Patriots do not commit as much money to thier best skills players as other teams do. The patriots front office has definitly been ahead of the curve of other teams. So I'm not saying thier approach to this in wrong or anything like that. Just that they do business differently. Javon Walker and David Givens being the recent examples of this.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

He signed a 6 year contract.His agent want a 5. Contract talks broke down. Watson had to fire his agent and bring in someone else. In the end, he signed a 6 year deal.

Watson, a tight end out of Georgia and the 32nd pick in the draft, has missed the first 16 days of training camp while reportedly holding out for a five-year contract rather than the six-year deal the team would like him to sign.

The move could be a major development in negotiations.

Watson, a 23-year-old tight end out of Georgia, fired his agent last week after holding out for more than two weeks of training camp.

The team had wanted Watson to sign for six years, but Watson's agent, Tom Condon, had insisted on five. Watson fired Condon last week.

Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but the Metrowest Daily News reported this morning that it includes combined bonuses of $4 million and a total potential value of $13.5 million.

Watson participated in minicamp in June while still unsigned, and he has studied the team's offensive system and attended club meetings, the Patriots said in a statement.

The Patriots drafted Watson with the final pick in the first round of the 2004 NFL draft -- the 32nd selection overall.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Someone needs to convince me not to drink this Kool-Aid.

Graham is getting less and less targets over time. Givens is gone. Branch could establish himself as a #1, but there's got to be a solid #2.

Watson could be that guy, and in NE's system, that could mean some exciting, exciting things from this TE.

I'm conservative in my guess here, but he will go up from last year.

43 receptions, 550 yards, 5 TD.

With the potential for a LOT more.

 

[jurb26]

I really love the ability of Watson and think this guy could be a stud on several other teams. NE just likes to use far too many TEs and big rec targets for my fantasy taste. Branch is a solid #1 WR and now they also added the highly talented Jackson as well as 2 MORE rookie TEs! Just not enough balls to go around here.

25 rec, 450 yds, 3 TDs