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Player Spotlight: Brandon Marshall, WR, Chicago Bears (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Brandon Marshall, WR, Chicago Bears

Player Page Link: Brandon Marshall Player Page

Each article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
  • FBG Projections
  • Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
No reason to believe Marshall won't be a beast. He has great chemistry with Cutler, and Alston Jeffery and Martellus Bennett should help Marshall in avoiding constant double teaming. Near or at the top of the WR tier after Calvin.

105 rec, 1375 yds, 10 TD

 

Chase Stuart

Footballguy
The real wildcard is Marc Trestman. The Bears threw 485 passes last year, 27th in the NFL. Part of that was the defense scored so many touchdowns, part of that was the team generally playing with a lead, part of it was a desire to keep Cutler healthy, and part of it was just the conservative nature of the offense. If Trestman brings an up-tempo offense to Chicago, as he's suggested, and the Bears defense stops scoring touchdowns every other game, Chicago could easily jump into the top half of the league in pass attempts. Considering how productive Marshall already is, his potential is outstanding.

 

bicycle_seat_sniffer

Smells like chicken
The real wildcard is Marc Trestman. The Bears threw 485 passes last year, 27th in the NFL. Part of that was the defense scored so many touchdowns, part of that was the team generally playing with a lead, part of it was a desire to keep Cutler healthy, and part of it was just the conservative nature of the offense. If Trestman brings an up-tempo offense to Chicago, as he's suggested, and the Bears defense stops scoring touchdowns every other game, Chicago could easily jump into the top half of the league in pass attempts. Considering how productive Marshall already is, his potential is outstanding.
considering Lovie is gone, I think the Defense wont be anywhere near as good this season.

 

TheDirtyWord

Footballguy
When Mike Tice was the head coach of the Minnesota Vikings back in 2002, he came up with this cockamamie plan called the Randy Ratio. The plan was as follows…his offense was going to built around the concept of throwing the ball to Randy Moss 40% of the time. Yep – 2 out of every 5 passes were going to be thrown Moss’s way. It was a terrible plan. 10 years later and we can now re-name that plan the Brandon Ratio. Because that’s exactly, and I mean exactly, what the Bears wound up doing last year with Mike Tice as their offensive coordinator. Marshall was targeted on an astounding 194 passes in an offense that threw the ball 485 times (40% on the button)!

In hiring Marc Trestman, the Bears most definitely thought outside the box in terms of what they wanted this team to look like. Under Lovie Smith, offense had become somewhat of an afterthought insofar as they actually let Tice coordinate an offense. Whether Trestman comes in and is the second coming of Bill Walsh or Marty Morhenweig, this much is certain. Brandon Marshall won’t be targeted 40% of the time. Consider that Reggie Wayne was 2nd in the NFL last year with a 30.89% target percentage…well, you can see just how one–dimensional the Bears passing attack was.

It’s not as if the Bears have dramatically improved the weapons they have. Martellus Bennett showed he could be a solid TE1, but a game changer? Nope. Alshon Jeffery will be in Year 2, but he could go either way in terms of success or failure at this juncture of his career. So it’s not personnel that will keep Marshall from being this central a focus in 2013…simply sanity.

A team that attempts 550 passes and targets their #1 WR 30% of the time will provide that WR 165 targets. Now the Bears did have 8 defensive TD’s, so a move up to 550 just on new scheme and less defensive scoring is possible. But 30% still puts Marshall in a Top 5 in the NFL ranking. Via this calculation, Marshall’s catches come down by 18 from his 2012 levels. Let’s also realize that of the 21 TD’s Chicago threw for, Marshall caughtover half of them (11).

Marshall is being lumped in with the elite category of receiver. On ability alone, he should be. But let’s include the following 5 players in that elite category

Megatron
Julio
Demaryius
A.J
Dez


Those passing offenses in 2012 averaged:

625.6 Passing Attempts (Bears = 485)
4631 Passing Yards (Bears = 3298)
29.2 TD’s (Bears = 21)


So, I see Marshall as the fools gold of this years elite WR crop. A lot of people might come into drafts with the thought process that the Bears simply have no other options. But I can’t see an offensive mind like Trestman’s, no matter how competent or incompetent, allowing what transpired in 2012 to take place again. It’s not to say Marshall won’t be productive, I just see him as a 3rd round value at best and one who’ll probably not make it to me when it comes time for my pick.

Prediction: 92 Receptions 1181 Receiving Yards, 8 TD’s.

 

dickey moe

Fingerpicker
I predict another big year (maybe a slight pullback from last year's numbers). FBGs seems to have him ranked accurately for redraft and a little low in dynasty, IMO.

105 receptions, 1425 yards, 10 TDs

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
I hate to reiterate a point, but 192 targets out of just 485 attempts is insane. I expect Chicago will throw the ball quite a bit more this year. Maybe 550 times. With Alshon in his second year and Bennett newly signed, Cutler will have more options. I think he slips to 30% of his team's targets, which is still a huge slice of the pie. I can't claim to know how Trestman will plan to use him so it's hard to nail down his expected catch % and YPR as compared to his career averages. His years in Miami hurt his catch %, so I am going to guess at 62% for 2013. We end up around 100/1300 which is solid, but you can probably find very similar numbers from Andre Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald. He seems a bit overrated at the moment to me. I can't imagine taking him #12 overall.

550 x 30% = 165 targets x 62% = 102 rec x 12.8 ypr = 1306 yds 8 TD

 

moderated

Footballguy
TheDirtyWord said:
When Mike Tice was the head coach of the Minnesota Vikings back in 2002, he came up with this cockamamie plan called the Randy Ratio. The plan was as follows…his offense was going to built around the concept of throwing the ball to Randy Moss 40% of the time. Yep – 2 out of every 5 passes were going to be thrown Moss’s way. It was a terrible plan. 10 years later and we can now re-name that plan the Brandon Ratio. Because that’s exactly, and I mean exactly, what the Bears wound up doing last year with Mike Tice as their offensive coordinator. Marshall was targeted on an astounding 194 passes in an offense that threw the ball 485 times (40% on the button)!

In hiring Marc Trestman, the Bears most definitely thought outside the box in terms of what they wanted this team to look like. Under Lovie Smith, offense had become somewhat of an afterthought insofar as they actually let Tice coordinate an offense. Whether Trestman comes in and is the second coming of Bill Walsh or Marty Morhenweig, this much is certain. Brandon Marshall won’t be targeted 40% of the time. Consider that Reggie Wayne was 2nd in the NFL last year with a 30.89% target percentage…well, you can see just how one–dimensional the Bears passing attack was.

It’s not as if the Bears have dramatically improved the weapons they have. Martellus Bennett showed he could be a solid TE1, but a game changer? Nope. Alshon Jeffery will be in Year 2, but he could go either way in terms of success or failure at this juncture of his career. So it’s not personnel that will keep Marshall from being this central a focus in 2013…simply sanity.

A team that attempts 550 passes and targets their #1 WR 30% of the time will provide that WR 165 targets. Now the Bears did have 8 defensive TD’s, so a move up to 550 just on new scheme and less defensive scoring is possible. But 30% still puts Marshall in a Top 5 in the NFL ranking. Via this calculation, Marshall’s catches come down by 18 from his 2012 levels. Let’s also realize that of the 21 TD’s Chicago threw for, Marshall caughtover half of them (11).

Marshall is being lumped in with the elite category of receiver. On ability alone, he should be. But let’s include the following 5 players in that elite category

Megatron

Julio

Demaryius

A.J

Dez

Those passing offenses in 2012 averaged:

625.6 Passing Attempts (Bears = 485)

4631 Passing Yards (Bears = 3298)

29.2 TD’s (Bears = 21)

So, I see Marshall as the fools gold of this years elite WR crop. A lot of people might come into drafts with the thought process that the Bears simply have no other options. But I can’t see an offensive mind like Trestman’s, no matter how competent or incompetent, allowing what transpired in 2012 to take place again. It’s not to say Marshall won’t be productive, I just see him as a 3rd round value at best and one who’ll probably not make it to me when it comes time for my pick.

Prediction: 92 Receptions 1181 Receiving Yards, 8 TD’s.
:goodposting:

i had no idea Marshall got 40% of targets. Seems that number has to come down so Chi has to throw a lot more for Marshall to get the same amount of targets as he did last year.

 

Shutout

Footballguy
TheDirtyWord said:
When Mike Tice was the head coach of the Minnesota Vikings back in 2002, he came up with this cockamamie plan called the Randy Ratio. The plan was as follows…his offense was going to built around the concept of throwing the ball to Randy Moss 40% of the time. Yep – 2 out of every 5 passes were going to be thrown Moss’s way. It was a terrible plan. 10 years later and we can now re-name that plan the Brandon Ratio. Because that’s exactly, and I mean exactly, what the Bears wound up doing last year with Mike Tice as their offensive coordinator. Marshall was targeted on an astounding 194 passes in an offense that threw the ball 485 times (40% on the button)!

In hiring Marc Trestman, the Bears most definitely thought outside the box in terms of what they wanted this team to look like. Under Lovie Smith, offense had become somewhat of an afterthought insofar as they actually let Tice coordinate an offense. Whether Trestman comes in and is the second coming of Bill Walsh or Marty Morhenweig, this much is certain. Brandon Marshall won’t be targeted 40% of the time. Consider that Reggie Wayne was 2nd in the NFL last year with a 30.89% target percentage…well, you can see just how one–dimensional the Bears passing attack was.

It’s not as if the Bears have dramatically improved the weapons they have. Martellus Bennett showed he could be a solid TE1, but a game changer? Nope. Alshon Jeffery will be in Year 2, but he could go either way in terms of success or failure at this juncture of his career. So it’s not personnel that will keep Marshall from being this central a focus in 2013…simply sanity.

A team that attempts 550 passes and targets their #1 WR 30% of the time will provide that WR 165 targets. Now the Bears did have 8 defensive TD’s, so a move up to 550 just on new scheme and less defensive scoring is possible. But 30% still puts Marshall in a Top 5 in the NFL ranking. Via this calculation, Marshall’s catches come down by 18 from his 2012 levels. Let’s also realize that of the 21 TD’s Chicago threw for, Marshall caughtover half of them (11).

Marshall is being lumped in with the elite category of receiver. On ability alone, he should be. But let’s include the following 5 players in that elite category

Megatron

Julio

Demaryius

A.J

Dez

Those passing offenses in 2012 averaged:

625.6 Passing Attempts (Bears = 485)

4631 Passing Yards (Bears = 3298)

29.2 TD’s (Bears = 21)

So, I see Marshall as the fools gold of this years elite WR crop. A lot of people might come into drafts with the thought process that the Bears simply have no other options. But I can’t see an offensive mind like Trestman’s, no matter how competent or incompetent, allowing what transpired in 2012 to take place again. It’s not to say Marshall won’t be productive, I just see him as a 3rd round value at best and one who’ll probably not make it to me when it comes time for my pick.

Prediction: 92 Receptions 1181 Receiving Yards, 8 TD’s.
Hands down one of the best presented posts I have seen in along time. Very point specific, backed up by solid reasoning. Very nice.

 

Mr Non Sequitur

Footballguy
TheDirtyWord said:
When Mike Tice was the head coach of the Minnesota Vikings back in 2002, he came up with this cockamamie plan called the Randy Ratio. The plan was as follows…his offense was going to built around the concept of throwing the ball to Randy Moss 40% of the time. Yep – 2 out of every 5 passes were going to be thrown Moss’s way. It was a terrible plan. 10 years later and we can now re-name that plan the Brandon Ratio. Because that’s exactly, and I mean exactly, what the Bears wound up doing last year with Mike Tice as their offensive coordinator. Marshall was targeted on an astounding 194 passes in an offense that threw the ball 485 times (40% on the button)!

In hiring Marc Trestman, the Bears most definitely thought outside the box in terms of what they wanted this team to look like. Under Lovie Smith, offense had become somewhat of an afterthought insofar as they actually let Tice coordinate an offense. Whether Trestman comes in and is the second coming of Bill Walsh or Marty Morhenweig, this much is certain. Brandon Marshall won’t be targeted 40% of the time. Consider that Reggie Wayne was 2nd in the NFL last year with a 30.89% target percentage…well, you can see just how one–dimensional the Bears passing attack was.

It’s not as if the Bears have dramatically improved the weapons they have. Martellus Bennett showed he could be a solid TE1, but a game changer? Nope. Alshon Jeffery will be in Year 2, but he could go either way in terms of success or failure at this juncture of his career. So it’s not personnel that will keep Marshall from being this central a focus in 2013…simply sanity.

A team that attempts 550 passes and targets their #1 WR 30% of the time will provide that WR 165 targets. Now the Bears did have 8 defensive TD’s, so a move up to 550 just on new scheme and less defensive scoring is possible. But 30% still puts Marshall in a Top 5 in the NFL ranking. Via this calculation, Marshall’s catches come down by 18 from his 2012 levels. Let’s also realize that of the 21 TD’s Chicago threw for, Marshall caughtover half of them (11).

Marshall is being lumped in with the elite category of receiver. On ability alone, he should be. But let’s include the following 5 players in that elite category

Megatron

Julio

Demaryius

A.J

Dez

Those passing offenses in 2012 averaged:

625.6 Passing Attempts (Bears = 485)

4631 Passing Yards (Bears = 3298)

29.2 TD’s (Bears = 21)

So, I see Marshall as the fools gold of this years elite WR crop. A lot of people might come into drafts with the thought process that the Bears simply have no other options. But I can’t see an offensive mind like Trestman’s, no matter how competent or incompetent, allowing what transpired in 2012 to take place again. It’s not to say Marshall won’t be productive, I just see him as a 3rd round value at best and one who’ll probably not make it to me when it comes time for my pick.

Prediction: 92 Receptions 1181 Receiving Yards, 8 TD’s.
Outstanding. One question if you can, what about the Cutler factor? Marshall will be lined up wide every time, Cutler has some say in who he is going to throw the ball to, no?

 

TheDirtyWord

Footballguy
TheDirtyWord said:
When Mike Tice was the head coach of the Minnesota Vikings back in 2002, he came up with this cockamamie plan called the Randy Ratio. The plan was as follows…his offense was going to built around the concept of throwing the ball to Randy Moss 40% of the time. Yep – 2 out of every 5 passes were going to be thrown Moss’s way. It was a terrible plan. 10 years later and we can now re-name that plan the Brandon Ratio. Because that’s exactly, and I mean exactly, what the Bears wound up doing last year with Mike Tice as their offensive coordinator. Marshall was targeted on an astounding 194 passes in an offense that threw the ball 485 times (40% on the button)!

In hiring Marc Trestman, the Bears most definitely thought outside the box in terms of what they wanted this team to look like. Under Lovie Smith, offense had become somewhat of an afterthought insofar as they actually let Tice coordinate an offense. Whether Trestman comes in and is the second coming of Bill Walsh or Marty Morhenweig, this much is certain. Brandon Marshall won’t be targeted 40% of the time. Consider that Reggie Wayne was 2nd in the NFL last year with a 30.89% target percentage…well, you can see just how one–dimensional the Bears passing attack was.

It’s not as if the Bears have dramatically improved the weapons they have. Martellus Bennett showed he could be a solid TE1, but a game changer? Nope. Alshon Jeffery will be in Year 2, but he could go either way in terms of success or failure at this juncture of his career. So it’s not personnel that will keep Marshall from being this central a focus in 2013…simply sanity.

A team that attempts 550 passes and targets their #1 WR 30% of the time will provide that WR 165 targets. Now the Bears did have 8 defensive TD’s, so a move up to 550 just on new scheme and less defensive scoring is possible. But 30% still puts Marshall in a Top 5 in the NFL ranking. Via this calculation, Marshall’s catches come down by 18 from his 2012 levels. Let’s also realize that of the 21 TD’s Chicago threw for, Marshall caughtover half of them (11).

Marshall is being lumped in with the elite category of receiver. On ability alone, he should be. But let’s include the following 5 players in that elite category

Megatron

Julio

Demaryius

A.J

Dez

Those passing offenses in 2012 averaged:

625.6 Passing Attempts (Bears = 485)

4631 Passing Yards (Bears = 3298)

29.2 TD’s (Bears = 21)

So, I see Marshall as the fools gold of this years elite WR crop. A lot of people might come into drafts with the thought process that the Bears simply have no other options. But I can’t see an offensive mind like Trestman’s, no matter how competent or incompetent, allowing what transpired in 2012 to take place again. It’s not to say Marshall won’t be productive, I just see him as a 3rd round value at best and one who’ll probably not make it to me when it comes time for my pick.

Prediction: 92 Receptions 1181 Receiving Yards, 8 TD’s.
Outstanding. One question if you can, what about the Cutler factor? Marshall will be lined up wide every time, Cutler has some say in who he is going to throw the ball to, no?
In DEN, Cutler & Marshall's best season was 2008. Cutler threw for 4500+ yards and Marshall exceeded 100 receptions. That season, Marshall's target percentage was 29.5%. Now his taregt percentage the year before was 33% so a plus 30% target rate isn't unprecendented. However, that was also Cutler's first year as a full time starter so an over reliance on his #1 targetmay not have been unexpected.

I think Cutler recognizes that a more balanced offense that gets everyone involved in the rhthym of the offense and the passing attack in particular is to the benefit of everyone.

 
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Chase Stuart

Footballguy
Great stuff, TheDirtyWord. But here's my big question:

Which is more likely to regress by more this year, Marshall's target percentage of the Lions number of pass plays? I know Detroit has now had two straight years of ridiculous pass attempts numbers, but a drop in 100 pass attempts would be about the same as a drop to 34-35% in target rate for Marshall... and that's ignoring that Chicago is likely to see a big increase in pass attempts, too.

 

wodahSShadow

Footballguy
Shutout said:
TheDirtyWord said:
When Mike Tice was the head coach of the Minnesota Vikings back in 2002, he came up with this cockamamie plan called the Randy Ratio. The plan was as follows…his offense was going to built around the concept of throwing the ball to Randy Moss 40% of the time. Yep – 2 out of every 5 passes were going to be thrown Moss’s way. It was a terrible plan. 10 years later and we can now re-name that plan the Brandon Ratio. Because that’s exactly, and I mean exactly, what the Bears wound up doing last year with Mike Tice as their offensive coordinator. Marshall was targeted on an astounding 194 passes in an offense that threw the ball 485 times (40% on the button)!

In hiring Marc Trestman, the Bears most definitely thought outside the box in terms of what they wanted this team to look like. Under Lovie Smith, offense had become somewhat of an afterthought insofar as they actually let Tice coordinate an offense. Whether Trestman comes in and is the second coming of Bill Walsh or Marty Morhenweig, this much is certain. Brandon Marshall won’t be targeted 40% of the time. Consider that Reggie Wayne was 2nd in the NFL last year with a 30.89% target percentage…well, you can see just how one–dimensional the Bears passing attack was.

It’s not as if the Bears have dramatically improved the weapons they have. Martellus Bennett showed he could be a solid TE1, but a game changer? Nope. Alshon Jeffery will be in Year 2, but he could go either way in terms of success or failure at this juncture of his career. So it’s not personnel that will keep Marshall from being this central a focus in 2013…simply sanity.

A team that attempts 550 passes and targets their #1 WR 30% of the time will provide that WR 165 targets. Now the Bears did have 8 defensive TD’s, so a move up to 550 just on new scheme and less defensive scoring is possible. But 30% still puts Marshall in a Top 5 in the NFL ranking. Via this calculation, Marshall’s catches come down by 18 from his 2012 levels. Let’s also realize that of the 21 TD’s Chicago threw for, Marshall caughtover half of them (11).

Marshall is being lumped in with the elite category of receiver. On ability alone, he should be. But let’s include the following 5 players in that elite category

Megatron

Julio

Demaryius

A.J

Dez

Those passing offenses in 2012 averaged:

625.6 Passing Attempts (Bears = 485)

4631 Passing Yards (Bears = 3298)

29.2 TD’s (Bears = 21)

So, I see Marshall as the fools gold of this years elite WR crop. A lot of people might come into drafts with the thought process that the Bears simply have no other options. But I can’t see an offensive mind like Trestman’s, no matter how competent or incompetent, allowing what transpired in 2012 to take place again. It’s not to say Marshall won’t be productive, I just see him as a 3rd round value at best and one who’ll probably not make it to me when it comes time for my pick.

Prediction: 92 Receptions 1181 Receiving Yards, 8 TD’s.
Hands down one of the best presented posts I have seen in along time. Very point specific, backed up by solid reasoning. Very nice.
100% concur.

 
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Zdravko

Footballguy
Great argumentation and details, but the math seems to break down afterwards.

I will try to show my calculations and assumptions clearly below:

* Accepting the premise of 550 passing attempts as argued above

* Going down from 40% to 30% (a 25% year-on-year decline....) of the targets seems dramatic, given the lack of new receiving options (due respect to Martellus) and the Cutler-Marshall relationship. No justification provided other than the OC is a new guy who thinks 'out-of-the-box', but lets stipulate the 30% as the floor.

550 attempts * 30% = 165 targets.

* Catch rate last season is 118/192 = 61.5%. That is slightly lower than many WRs of Marshall's caliber, but generally ballpark. If anything, you would expect it to improve as the Bears O-line supposedly gets better this season. I believe the last time Cutler and Marshall played together, Marshall's catch rate was 65.6%. But as a floor, let's assume the 61.5%.

165 targets * 61.5% = 101.5 catches

* Keeping the ypc projection from the original post (seems in the ballpark of Marshall's stats from previous seasons): 1181 / 92 = 12.84 yps

101.5 catches * 12.84 ypc = 1303 receiving yards

* 8 TDs feels slightly low after 11 TDs in first CHI season, but accepting the projection as a floor.

So using the detailed argumentation and logic of the original post, Marshall's numbers come up as 165 targets, 101 catches, 1303 yards, 8 TDs = 17.4 ppg

Note that as I argued above, those appear to be driven by quite conservative, floor-level assumptions.

Finally, for consideration, here are some sensitivies around the disputed target %:

550 attempts 28% of targets 154 targets 95 receptions 1216 yards 8 TDs 16.5 PPG

550 attempts 30% of targets 165 targets 101 receptions 1303 yards 8 TDs 17.5 PPG
550 attempts 32% of targets 176 targets 108 receptions 1390 yards 8 TDs 18.5 PPG
550 attempts 35% of targets 193 targets 118 receptions 1520 yards 8 TDs 19.9 PPG

 
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KrazyKyle

Footballguy
A lot of projections/stats here that I feel are noteworthy and fair but unnecessary. The simple fact that Brandon Marshall is in his prime right now, he's Cutlers go to guy without question, and the offense will improve(HC + O-Line), should say enough. Marshall has to be in that top tier right behind Calvin. Where you put him within the second tier is personal opinion. An unquestioned WR1 and PPR monster.

111/1420/12

 

TheDirtyWord

Footballguy
Great stuff, TheDirtyWord. But here's my big question:

Which is more likely to regress by more this year, Marshall's target percentage of the Lions number of pass plays? I know Detroit has now had two straight years of ridiculous pass attempts numbers, but a drop in 100 pass attempts would be about the same as a drop to 34-35% in target rate for Marshall... and that's ignoring that Chicago is likely to see a big increase in pass attempts, too.
I would say the both have to regress significantly. For the Lions who went 0-8 in their final 8 games with the wheels coming off...during that stretch they threw the ball 381 times (versus 359 during the first 8). Over 16 games, that's 44 pass attempts. Compared to the 700+ the Lions put up it doesn't seem like alot, but when you combine that with the fact that they should have a more rounded rushing attack with the acquisition of Bush...them coming down to the low-mid 600's seems likely.

But with Marshall, consider that aside from Marshall, only 3 guys exceeeded 30% in 2012 (Wayne, A.J). And in 2011, I think the only WR to exceed 30% was Roddy (32%, who was also at 31% in 2010). In 2010, Larry Fitzgerald was the only other WR to exceed 30% with a 31% target percentage.

So the number that you put up there,34-35%...it's not a number that anyone has really gotten close to. And you can count the number of receivers who have exceeded 30% over the last 3 seasons on one hand. Will Cutler's pass attempts numbers go up? But he'll have a full season of Alshon Jeffrey. He gets a decent receiving TE in Black Unicorn. So I think it's more likely Marshall regresses in the target percentage area versus the Lions who seem to be headed by a stale regime. And if the wheels come off there...well...750 attempts here they come!

CAVEAT: I'm going by ESPN.com target numbers.

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
Great stuff, TheDirtyWord. But here's my big question:

Which is more likely to regress by more this year, Marshall's target percentage of the Lions number of pass plays? I know Detroit has now had two straight years of ridiculous pass attempts numbers, but a drop in 100 pass attempts would be about the same as a drop to 34-35% in target rate for Marshall... and that's ignoring that Chicago is likely to see a big increase in pass attempts, too.
I would say the both have to regress significantly. For the Lions who went 0-8 in their final 8 games with the wheels coming off...during that stretch they threw the ball 381 times (versus 359 during the first 8). Over 16 games, that's 44 pass attempts. Compared to the 700+ the Lions put up it doesn't seem like alot, but when you combine that with the fact that they should have a more rounded rushing attack with the acquisition of Bush...them coming down to the low-mid 600's seems likely.

But with Marshall, consider that aside from Marshall, only 3 guys exceeeded 30% in 2012 (Wayne, A.J). And in 2011, I think the only WR to exceed 30% was Roddy (32%, who was also at 31% in 2010). In 2010, Larry Fitzgerald was the only other WR to exceed 30% with a 31% target percentage.

So the number that you put up there,34-35%...it's not a number that anyone has really gotten close to. And you can count the number of receivers who have exceeded 30% over the last 3 seasons on one hand. Will Cutler's pass attempts numbers go up? But he'll have a full season of Alshon Jeffrey. He gets a decent receiving TE in Black Unicorn. So I think it's more likely Marshall regresses in the target percentage area versus the Lions who seem to be headed by a stale regime. And if the wheels come off there...well...750 attempts here they come!

CAVEAT: I'm going by ESPN.com target numbers.
Excellent analysis that you have done.

40% target % obviously isn't going to continue. But I do think Cutler is going to throw the ball more this year (since the Bears D isn't going to be that good......they have to play the Pack and Lions 2x, all games the Bears are going to need to score a lot to win) and he LOVES to throw it to Marshall. So say going down to 30% target ratio (I think that's reasonable), I have Marshall getting about 165 targets, based on CHI throwing the ball 550 times this year. At a 63% catch ratio, that brings me to the 105 receptions that I project.

To get 92 receptions that you project, you have to think either 1) the Bears are going to throw the ball less than 500 times this year, or Marshall's catch percentage drops into the mid 50s. To me that's a little low on either front. But I don't think that your projection is unreasonable at all. It really isn't that much lower than the consensus......still makes Marshall a top 10 WR, but not a top 5WR that most think.

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
Great argumentation and details, but the math seems to break down afterwards.

I will try to show my calculations and assumptions clearly below:

* Accepting the premise of 550 passing attempts as argued above

* Going down from 40% to 30% (a 25% year-on-year decline....) of the targets seems dramatic, given the lack of new receiving options (due respect to Martellus) and the Cutler-Marshall relationship. No justification provided other than the OC is a new guy who thinks 'out-of-the-box', but lets stipulate the 30% as the floor.

550 attempts * 30% = 165 targets.

* Catch rate last season is 118/192 = 61.5%. That is slightly lower than many WRs of Marshall's caliber, but generally ballpark. If anything, you would expect it to improve as the Bears O-line supposedly gets better this season. I believe the last time Cutler and Marshall played together, Marshall's catch rate was 65.6%. But as a floor, let's assume the 61.5%.

165 targets * 61.5% = 101.5 catches

* Keeping the ypc projection from the original post (seems in the ballpark of Marshall's stats from previous seasons): 1181 / 92 = 12.84 yps

101.5 catches * 12.84 ypc = 1303 receiving yards

* 8 TDs feels slightly low after 11 TDs in first CHI season, but accepting the projection as a floor.

So using the detailed argumentation and logic of the original post, Marshall's numbers come up as 165 targets, 101 catches, 1303 yards, 8 TDs = 17.4 ppg

Note that as I argued above, those appear to be driven by quite conservative, floor-level assumptions.

Finally, for consideration, here are some sensitivies around the disputed target %:

550 attempts 28% of targets 154 targets 95 receptions 1216 yards 8 TDs 16.5 PPG

550 attempts 30% of targets 165 targets 101 receptions 1303 yards 8 TDs 17.5 PPG
550 attempts 32% of targets 176 targets 108 receptions 1390 yards 8 TDs 18.5 PPG
550 attempts 35% of targets 193 targets 118 receptions 1520 yards 8 TDs 19.9 PPG
:goodposting:

These is my thoughts exactly. I think Marshall catch % will be slightly higher at 63%, since I think the Bears OL will better protect Cutler and he will be more accurate.

Hence I think my projection of 105/1375/10 is pretty reasonable.

 

Chase Stuart

Footballguy
Great stuff, TheDirtyWord. But here's my big question:

Which is more likely to regress by more this year, Marshall's target percentage of the Lions number of pass plays? I know Detroit has now had two straight years of ridiculous pass attempts numbers, but a drop in 100 pass attempts would be about the same as a drop to 34-35% in target rate for Marshall... and that's ignoring that Chicago is likely to see a big increase in pass attempts, too.
I would say the both have to regress significantly. For the Lions who went 0-8 in their final 8 games with the wheels coming off...during that stretch they threw the ball 381 times (versus 359 during the first 8). Over 16 games, that's 44 pass attempts. Compared to the 700+ the Lions put up it doesn't seem like alot, but when you combine that with the fact that they should have a more rounded rushing attack with the acquisition of Bush...them coming down to the low-mid 600's seems likely.

But with Marshall, consider that aside from Marshall, only 3 guys exceeeded 30% in 2012 (Wayne, A.J). And in 2011, I think the only WR to exceed 30% was Roddy (32%, who was also at 31% in 2010). In 2010, Larry Fitzgerald was the only other WR to exceed 30% with a 31% target percentage.

So the number that you put up there,34-35%...it's not a number that anyone has really gotten close to. And you can count the number of receivers who have exceeded 30% over the last 3 seasons on one hand. Will Cutler's pass attempts numbers go up? But he'll have a full season of Alshon Jeffrey. He gets a decent receiving TE in Black Unicorn. So I think it's more likely Marshall regresses in the target percentage area versus the Lions who seem to be headed by a stale regime. And if the wheels come off there...well...750 attempts here they come!

CAVEAT: I'm going by ESPN.com target numbers.
Thanks TheDirtyWord. And let me be clear: I don't think there's a right or a wrong answer here.

But if I had to guess, I would say Marshall would end 2013 with more targets than Calvin Johnson. Why?

Detroit had 740 passes last year; Chicago 485.Megatron had 204 targets last year, Marshall 192.That's because Marshall had 39.6% of CHI targets while Johnson had 27.6% of DET targets.In 2012, Marshall huge an enormous slice out of a small pie, while Megatron had a good chunk out of an enormous pie. That's why Johnson had a slightly larger pie last year (12 more targets).But I expect significant compression in the number of pass attempts. The Lions had 255 more passes last year; I think that number cuts in half this year. Detroit will pass a lot less while Chicago will pass a lot more.If the numbers are 640 and 540 in 2013, even if Marshall drops to 34%, that's still 184 targets. For Megatron, if he keeps the same percentage of the pie, he'll be at 177 targets. And wish Bush around, he might not even keep the same percent of the pie.You're right that Marshall could drop to 30%. But if that's the case, my guess is his Y/T will go up by a bit, too, which would offset that.

 

TheDirtyWord

Footballguy
Zdravko said:
Great argumentation and details, but the math seems to break down afterwards.

I will try to show my calculations and assumptions clearly below:

* Accepting the premise of 550 passing attempts as argued above

* Going down from 40% to 30% (a 25% year-on-year decline....) of the targets seems dramatic, given the lack of new receiving options (due respect to Martellus) and the Cutler-Marshall relationship. No justification provided other than the OC is a new guy who thinks 'out-of-the-box', but lets stipulate the 30% as the floor.

550 attempts * 30% = 165 targets.

* Catch rate last season is 118/192 = 61.5%. That is slightly lower than many WRs of Marshall's caliber, but generally ballpark. If anything, you would expect it to improve as the Bears O-line supposedly gets better this season. I believe the last time Cutler and Marshall played together, Marshall's catch rate was 65.6%. But as a floor, let's assume the 61.5%.

165 targets * 61.5% = 101.5 catches

* Keeping the ypc projection from the original post (seems in the ballpark of Marshall's stats from previous seasons): 1181 / 92 = 12.84 yps

101.5 catches * 12.84 ypc = 1303 receiving yards

* 8 TDs feels slightly low after 11 TDs in first CHI season, but accepting the projection as a floor.

So using the detailed argumentation and logic of the original post, Marshall's numbers come up as 165 targets, 101 catches, 1303 yards, 8 TDs = 17.4 ppg

Note that as I argued above, those appear to be driven by quite conservative, floor-level assumptions.

Finally, for consideration, here are some sensitivies around the disputed target %:

550 attempts 28% of targets 154 targets 95 receptions 1216 yards 8 TDs 16.5 PPG

550 attempts 30% of targets 165 targets 101 receptions 1303 yards 8 TDs 17.5 PPG
550 attempts 32% of targets 176 targets 108 receptions 1390 yards 8 TDs 18.5 PPG
550 attempts 35% of targets 193 targets 118 receptions 1520 yards 8 TDs 19.9 PPG
550 is not an insignificant amount of attempts. It would have placed 19th in 2012,15th in 2011, 14th in 2010. But for an offense that's failed to exceed 500 attempts since Cutler was acquired, the jump seems very significant. To your point, the weapons on the Bears in the passing game are sub par aside from Marshall and with a defense as good as the Bears, is 550 really what we'll see? I indicated possible, but not probable. The reasons teams throw the football alot is because either 1) they are very good at it 2) they have terrible running game so they have to and 3) they play from behind alot because their defense stinks. None of those criteria apply to the Bears.

With 5 players having attained a 30% target percentage in the last 3 years with noone having exceeded 32%, 30% seems reasonable although the elite guys are generally going to start piling up in the 27-28% range.

From my POV, Marshall's numbers were driven to the heights they were in 2012 because the Bears under Tice operated under a misguided notion of offensive football. That you could target your best WR an inordinate amount of time and be successful. Trestman was an out-of-the-box choice...I said nothing about his thinking. But targeting your best player 28-30% is actually right in the middle of the box in terms of thinking.

 

TheDirtyWord

Footballguy
Chase Stuart said:
TheDirtyWord said:
Great stuff, TheDirtyWord. But here's my big question:

Which is more likely to regress by more this year, Marshall's target percentage of the Lions number of pass plays? I know Detroit has now had two straight years of ridiculous pass attempts numbers, but a drop in 100 pass attempts would be about the same as a drop to 34-35% in target rate for Marshall... and that's ignoring that Chicago is likely to see a big increase in pass attempts, too.
I would say the both have to regress significantly. For the Lions who went 0-8 in their final 8 games with the wheels coming off...during that stretch they threw the ball 381 times (versus 359 during the first 8). Over 16 games, that's 44 pass attempts. Compared to the 700+ the Lions put up it doesn't seem like alot, but when you combine that with the fact that they should have a more rounded rushing attack with the acquisition of Bush...them coming down to the low-mid 600's seems likely.

But with Marshall, consider that aside from Marshall, only 3 guys exceeeded 30% in 2012 (Wayne, A.J). And in 2011, I think the only WR to exceed 30% was Roddy (32%, who was also at 31% in 2010). In 2010, Larry Fitzgerald was the only other WR to exceed 30% with a 31% target percentage.

So the number that you put up there,34-35%...it's not a number that anyone has really gotten close to. And you can count the number of receivers who have exceeded 30% over the last 3 seasons on one hand. Will Cutler's pass attempts numbers go up? But he'll have a full season of Alshon Jeffrey. He gets a decent receiving TE in Black Unicorn. So I think it's more likely Marshall regresses in the target percentage area versus the Lions who seem to be headed by a stale regime. And if the wheels come off there...well...750 attempts here they come!

CAVEAT: I'm going by ESPN.com target numbers.
Thanks TheDirtyWord. And let me be clear: I don't think there's a right or a wrong answer here.

But if I had to guess, I would say Marshall would end 2013 with more targets than Calvin Johnson. Why?

Detroit had 740 passes last year; Chicago 485.Megatron had 204 targets last year, Marshall 192.That's because Marshall had 39.6% of CHI targets while Johnson had 27.6% of DET targets.In 2012, Marshall huge an enormous slice out of a small pie, while Megatron had a good chunk out of an enormous pie. That's why Johnson had a slightly larger pie last year (12 more targets).But I expect significant compression in the number of pass attempts. The Lions had 255 more passes last year; I think that number cuts in half this year. Detroit will pass a lot less while Chicago will pass a lot more.If the numbers are 640 and 540 in 2013, even if Marshall drops to 34%, that's still 184 targets. For Megatron, if he keeps the same percentage of the pie, he'll be at 177 targets. And wish Bush around, he might not even keep the same percent of the pie.You're right that Marshall could drop to 30%. But if that's the case, my guess is his Y/T will go up by a bit, too, which would offset that.
I didn't understand the context the original question was asked so I'm not sure if I answered your question with regard to who I though would get more targets.

But ask yourself this question. Why was Marshall's target percentage 40% while Megatron's was less than 30%. From a centerpiece of their offense standpoint, Megatron was/is as important as Marshall. No? Yet even the Lions amidst their downward 0-8 spiral and actual drive to get Calvin Johnson to 2000 yardsand break Jerry Rice's record only targeted him 32.3% of the time during the 2nd half of the season.

Everyone has pointed to how much Cutler loves throwing to Marshall and how they have such a connnection. Does Stafford not have the same love and connection with Megatron? I agree, there is no right or wrong here, but if you understand the context by which Marshall accumulated his numbers and realize how far outside the norm his target percentage was in 2012, my advice is to tap the breaks.

 
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Chase Stuart

Footballguy
Chase Stuart said:
TheDirtyWord said:
Great stuff, TheDirtyWord. But here's my big question:

Which is more likely to regress by more this year, Marshall's target percentage of the Lions number of pass plays? I know Detroit has now had two straight years of ridiculous pass attempts numbers, but a drop in 100 pass attempts would be about the same as a drop to 34-35% in target rate for Marshall... and that's ignoring that Chicago is likely to see a big increase in pass attempts, too.
I would say the both have to regress significantly. For the Lions who went 0-8 in their final 8 games with the wheels coming off...during that stretch they threw the ball 381 times (versus 359 during the first 8). Over 16 games, that's 44 pass attempts. Compared to the 700+ the Lions put up it doesn't seem like alot, but when you combine that with the fact that they should have a more rounded rushing attack with the acquisition of Bush...them coming down to the low-mid 600's seems likely.

But with Marshall, consider that aside from Marshall, only 3 guys exceeeded 30% in 2012 (Wayne, A.J). And in 2011, I think the only WR to exceed 30% was Roddy (32%, who was also at 31% in 2010). In 2010, Larry Fitzgerald was the only other WR to exceed 30% with a 31% target percentage.

So the number that you put up there,34-35%...it's not a number that anyone has really gotten close to. And you can count the number of receivers who have exceeded 30% over the last 3 seasons on one hand. Will Cutler's pass attempts numbers go up? But he'll have a full season of Alshon Jeffrey. He gets a decent receiving TE in Black Unicorn. So I think it's more likely Marshall regresses in the target percentage area versus the Lions who seem to be headed by a stale regime. And if the wheels come off there...well...750 attempts here they come!

CAVEAT: I'm going by ESPN.com target numbers.
Thanks TheDirtyWord. And let me be clear: I don't think there's a right or a wrong answer here.

But if I had to guess, I would say Marshall would end 2013 with more targets than Calvin Johnson. Why?

Detroit had 740 passes last year; Chicago 485.Megatron had 204 targets last year, Marshall 192.That's because Marshall had 39.6% of CHI targets while Johnson had 27.6% of DET targets.In 2012, Marshall huge an enormous slice out of a small pie, while Megatron had a good chunk out of an enormous pie. That's why Johnson had a slightly larger pie last year (12 more targets).But I expect significant compression in the number of pass attempts. The Lions had 255 more passes last year; I think that number cuts in half this year. Detroit will pass a lot less while Chicago will pass a lot more.If the numbers are 640 and 540 in 2013, even if Marshall drops to 34%, that's still 184 targets. For Megatron, if he keeps the same percentage of the pie, he'll be at 177 targets. And wish Bush around, he might not even keep the same percent of the pie.You're right that Marshall could drop to 30%. But if that's the case, my guess is his Y/T will go up by a bit, too, which would offset that.
I didn't understand the context the original question was asked so I'm not sure if I answered your question with regard to who I though would get more targets.

But ask yourself this question. Why was Marshall's target percentage 40% while Megatron's was less than 30%. From a centerpiece of their offense standpoint, Megatron was/is as important as Marshall. No? Yet even the Lions amidst their downward 0-8 spiral and actual drive to get Calvin Johnson to 2000 yardsand break Jerry Rice's record only targeted him 32.3% of the time during the 2nd half of the season.

Everyone has pointed to how much Cutler loves throwing to Marshall and how they have such a connnection. Does Stafford not have the same love and connection with Megatron? I agree, there is no right or wrong here, but if you understand the context by which Marshall accumulated his numbers and realize how far outside the norm his target percentage was in 2012, my advice is to tap the breaks.
I think Marshall is a more complete receiver than Johnson. Megatron's average catch is 12 yards downfield, which is higher than just about every WR1 other than Vincent Jackson. The Lions don't exclusively focus on Johnson the way the Bears do with Marshall.

 
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Chase Stuart

Footballguy
As for the Bears, it's worth remembering that Marc Trestman was the OC for two of the most pass-happy teams in NFL history: the 2002 Raiders and 1995 49ers. I don't know if the Bears under Trestman will look anything like the Bears did under Lovie.

 

jdoggydogg

Footballguy
Marshall fool's gold? No way.

Just set aside the fact that Trestman offenses are pass-happy, and remember that Cutler counts on Marshall. No matter what, Marshall gives Cutler a big, reliable safety valve. If Marshall plays most of the 16 game scedule, you can bank on a top five WR finish.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
As for the Bears, it's worth remembering that Marc Trestman was the OC for two of the most pass-happy teams in NFL history: the 2002 Raiders and 1995 49ers. I don't know if the Bears under Trestman will look anything like the Bears did under Lovie.
That's an interesting bit of information. I went into this spotlight expecting my analysis to point to something along the lines of TDW's projections, but for the life of me I couldn't imagine a scenario in which Marshall gets less than 100 receptions. 485 attempts is really low. Given Cutler's tendency to lock in on Marshall, 30% almost seems low. 550 attempts isn't a lot in today's NFL. I still think Marshall is overvalued, but there's no way I'd call him fool's gold. He reminds me of Larry Fitzgerald a couple years ago or Peyton Manning of years past. These guys are generally drafted a bit ahead of their likely finish (how many years was Peyton drafted QB1 despite only 1 career QB1 finish?) but their high floor was the value one got in return in lieu of upside. I seriously doubt Marshall finishes WR3 or better, but I'll be shocked if he finishes outside of the top 10.

 
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Eminence

Footballguy
Couldn't Marshall's percentage of the targets goes down but Cutler's attempts increase? Resulting in the same / similar statline as last year? Marshall is Cutler's go-to-go, no fools gold here.

 
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msudaisy26

Footballguy
Chase Stuart said:
TheDirtyWord said:
Great stuff, TheDirtyWord. But here's my big question: Which is more likely to regress by more this year, Marshall's target percentage of the Lions number of pass plays? I know Detroit has now had two straight years of ridiculous pass attempts numbers, but a drop in 100 pass attempts would be about the same as a drop to 34-35% in target rate for Marshall... and that's ignoring that Chicago is likely to see a big increase in pass attempts, too.
I would say the both have to regress significantly. For the Lions who went 0-8 in their final 8 games with the wheels coming off...during that stretch they threw the ball 381 times (versus 359 during the first 8). Over 16 games, that's 44 pass attempts. Compared to the 700+ the Lions put up it doesn't seem like alot, but when you combine that with the fact that they should have a more rounded rushing attack with the acquisition of Bush...them coming down to the low-mid 600's seems likely. But with Marshall, consider that aside from Marshall, only 3 guys exceeeded 30% in 2012 (Wayne, A.J). And in 2011, I think the only WR to exceed 30% was Roddy (32%, who was also at 31% in 2010). In 2010, Larry Fitzgerald was the only other WR to exceed 30% with a 31% target percentage. So the number that you put up there,34-35%...it's not a number that anyone has really gotten close to. And you can count the number of receivers who have exceeded 30% over the last 3 seasons on one hand. Will Cutler's pass attempts numbers go up? But he'll have a full season of Alshon Jeffrey. He gets a decent receiving TE in Black Unicorn. So I think it's more likely Marshall regresses in the target percentage area versus the Lions who seem to be headed by a stale regime. And if the wheels come off there...well...750 attempts here they come! CAVEAT: I'm going by ESPN.com target numbers.
Thanks TheDirtyWord. And let me be clear: I don't think there's a right or a wrong answer here. But if I had to guess, I would say Marshall would end 2013 with more targets than Calvin Johnson. Why? Detroit had 740 passes last year; Chicago 485.Megatron had 204 targets last year, Marshall 192.That's because Marshall had 39.6% of CHI targets while Johnson had 27.6% of DET targets.In 2012, Marshall huge an enormous slice out of a small pie, while Megatron had a good chunk out of an enormous pie. That's why Johnson had a slightly larger pie last year (12 more targets).But I expect significant compression in the number of pass attempts. The Lions had 255 more passes last year; I think that number cuts in half this year. Detroit will pass a lot less while Chicago will pass a lot more.If the numbers are 640 and 540 in 2013, even if Marshall drops to 34%, that's still 184 targets. For Megatron, if he keeps the same percentage of the pie, he'll be at 177 targets. And wish Bush around, he might not even keep the same percent of the pie.You're right that Marshall could drop to 30%. But if that's the case, my guess is his Y/T will go up by a bit, too, which would offset that.
I didn't understand the context the original question was asked so I'm not sure if I answered your question with regard to who I though would get more targets. But ask yourself this question. Why was Marshall's target percentage 40% while Megatron's was less than 30%. From a centerpiece of their offense standpoint, Megatron was/is as important as Marshall. No? Yet even the Lions amidst their downward 0-8 spiral and actual drive to get Calvin Johnson to 2000 yardsand break Jerry Rice's record only targeted him 32.3% of the time during the 2nd half of the season. Everyone has pointed to how much Cutler loves throwing to Marshall and how they have such a connnection. Does Stafford not have the same love and connection with Megatron? I agree, there is no right or wrong here, but if you understand the context by which Marshall accumulated his numbers and realize how far outside the norm his target percentage was in 2012, my advice is to tap the breaks.
I think Marshall is a more complete receiver than Johnson. Megatron's average catch is 12 yards downfield, which is higher than just about every WR1 other than Vincent Jackson. The Lions don't exclusively focus on Johnson the way the Bears do with Marshall.
I disagree with this, 2 years ago Stafford had a career year and spread the ball around well, but last year he locked on Megatron and he suffered for it. I see the the number of passes thrown but Detroit didn't have anyone even close to Forte talent wise in the offense after their number 1 receiver.Back to the topic at hand. I see Marshall going up in points and being the number 1 receiver this year or going down in points significantly and barely being in the top 10. I am leaning towards his numbers going up, I think he will have a career year in yards and touchdowns, I believe the Bears have a better offense and it will open the field up for Marshall and we all know how good he is after the catch. We can also factor in that he has a couple games against Green Bay and Detroit, likely to be high scoring affairs.110 catches 1600 yards and 14 touchdowns.
 
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FF Ninja

Footballguy
110/1600/14? Really? Try to keep it reasonable. Marshall has never been much of a TD guy and the chances of breaking 14.5 YPR are very slim.

 

msudaisy26

Footballguy
FF Ninja said:
110/1600/14? Really? Try to keep it reasonable. Marshall has never been much of a TD guy and the chances of breaking 14.5 YPR are very slim.
What is unreasonable about it? He broke 14.5 YPC once in his career and I said he would have a career year. The catches are less then his career best, his yards would be about 100 above his career best and touchdowns would be 3 more then his career high. Lofty expectations? Yes. Unreasonable? Not even close
 

Chase Stuart

Footballguy
msudaisy26 said:
I disagree with this, 2 years ago Stafford had a career year and spread the ball around well, but last year he locked on Megatron and he suffered for it. I see the the number of passes thrown but Detroit didn't have anyone even close to Forte talent wise in the offense after their number 1 receiver.
Based on their target percentages, it wasn't close: Marshall had 39.6% of CHI targets while Johnson had 27.6% of DET targets.

 

msudaisy26

Footballguy
msudaisy26 said:
I disagree with this, 2 years ago Stafford had a career year and spread the ball around well, but last year he locked on Megatron and he suffered for it. I see the the number of passes thrown but Detroit didn't have anyone even close to Forte talent wise in the offense after their number 1 receiver.
Based on their target percentages, it wasn't close: Marshall had 39.6% of CHI targets while Johnson had 27.6% of DET targets.
I watched a lot of Detroit games last year and seen Stafford want to go to Calvin and he was doubled and tripled covered. So he choose to go else where with the ball and by his regression in every stat we can see that he made poor throws when doing this. This is why I believe the Lions leaned on Calvin more than the Bears did Marshall.
 
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FF Ninja

Footballguy
FF Ninja said:
110/1600/14? Really? Try to keep it reasonable. Marshall has never been much of a TD guy and the chances of breaking 14.5 YPR are very slim.
What is unreasonable about it? He broke 14.5 YPC once in his career and I said he would have a career year. The catches are less then his career best, his yards would be about 100 above his career best and touchdowns would be 3 more then his career high. Lofty expectations? Yes. Unreasonable? Not even close
Neither lofty nor unreasonable would be my first choice. I'll be PC and select "poor" as my descriptive term.

He's played 3 full seasons with Cutler. He has a combined 324 receptions for rates of 12.6 YPR and 1 TD per 13.5 receptions. You are predicting an increase of 15% on his production per catch and doubling his TD rate. Maybe "silly" would be a better word for that.

I like Cutler as a QB and I kind of root for Marshall as he's trying to get through his borderline personality disorder and I'm excited to see this new offense, but Marshall has never been a big TD guy or a YPR guy and now they've got some more weapons. Bennett will be a great red zone target and Jeffery is 6'3". Unless you are predicting 40+ TDs from Cutler, that projection is beyond statistically improbable.

 

msudaisy26

Footballguy
FF Ninja said:
110/1600/14? Really? Try to keep it reasonable. Marshall has never been much of a TD guy and the chances of breaking 14.5 YPR are very slim.
What is unreasonable about it? He broke 14.5 YPC once in his career and I said he would have a career year. The catches are less then his career best, his yards would be about 100 above his career best and touchdowns would be 3 more then his career high. Lofty expectations? Yes. Unreasonable? Not even close
Neither lofty nor unreasonable would be my first choice. I'll be PC and select "poor" as my descriptive term. He's played 3 full seasons with Cutler. He has a combined 324 receptions for rates of 12.6 YPR and 1 TD per 13.5 receptions. You are predicting an increase of 15% on his production per catch and doubling his TD rate. Maybe "silly" would be a better word for that. I like Cutler as a QB and I kind of root for Marshall as he's trying to get through his borderline personality disorder and I'm excited to see this new offense, but Marshall has never been a big TD guy or a YPR guy and now they've got some more weapons. Bennett will be a great red zone target and Jeffery is 6'3". Unless you are predicting 40+ TDs from Cutler, that projection is beyond statistically improbable.
I just don't follow your logic, it is reasonable to think the Bears will throw more this year. You say Marshall isn't a big touchdown guy, but he has had 2 double digit touchdown years in his career, and say it is because of Jeffery being 6'3", but Marshall is 6'4", and Bennett who has never had more than 5 touchdowns in a season. If Cutler throws 30 touchdowns I could easily see Marshall getting around half of them.
 

cstu

Footballguy
Couldn't Marshall's percentage of the targets goes down but Cutler's attempts increase? Resulting in the same / similar statline as last year? Marshall is Cutler's go-to-go, no fools gold here.
I'm not concerned about him being a top 10 WR, that's a given IMO. The question I have is how much will his targets decrease with more emphasis on Jeffery and Forte and the addition of Bennett? What are we talking here, a 5%, 10%, or 20% drop in numbers?

 
From the same link above...

One day after complaining about the progress of his surgically-repaired hip, Brandon Marshall has taken a four-day leave from the Bears for "personal reasons."

Before you panic, it's worth noting that coach Marc Trestman insists Marshall's absence was "pre-planned," and "has been part of the offseason plan since started training camp." However, as beat writer Brad Biggs points out, "personal reasons" was also the reason given for Brian Urlacher's absence last summer. It was eventually revealed he underwent knee surgery. Marshall's rant about his hip came unprompted on Tuesday. To date, he's been a full participant in camp. There's probably nothing to it, but to suggest there's no smoke would be naive. Aug 28 - 1:51 PM

Source: Chicago Tribune

Something to keep and eye on for those who drafted him.

 

menobrown

Footballguy
Couldn't Marshall's percentage of the targets goes down but Cutler's attempts increase? Resulting in the same / similar statline as last year? Marshall is Cutler's go-to-go, no fools gold here.
I'm not concerned about him being a top 10 WR, that's a given IMO. The question I have is how much will his targets decrease with more emphasis on Jeffery and Forte and the addition of Bennett? What are we talking here, a 5%, 10%, or 20% drop in numbers?
I agree with Eminence. Now I'm deeply concerned about the hip but putting that aside for a minute and assuming his health is Ok I see this shaking out exactly like Eminence wondered. Meaning he can't sustain the same % of targets but I don't see much,if any,drop off in total targets due to increased passing. Let history be your best indicator of the future here. In terms of % of targets last yeas was an anomoaly in the Cutler/Marshall history together. In terms of total targets in their history it was just average. In the two years they were together in Denver Marshall averaged 11 targets a game. That's one less than last year.

 

Two Deep

Footballguy
Discontent and Brandon Marshall are not a good combination. If the Bears don't pander to this guy it wouldn't surprise me if he sits himself down.

 

Im.A.Wizard

Footballguy
Statement from Marshall's agent that should put an end to some of these speculations:

Brandon is accustomed to executing and playing at a high level and being the perfectionist that he is, his expectations of himself are very high. Anything less than elite is unacceptable to him. As far as him not being there, this has been planned w/the Bears and Brandon long before yesterday. Any other suggestion, thought or implication are all unfair to Brandon and the Bears organization.

 

[icon]

Insoxicated
Wanted him but didn't get him in any drafts this year... kinda happy about that reading some of this news now.

 

JackReacher

Footballguy
Im.A.Wizard said:
Statement from Marshall's agent that should put an end to some of these speculations:

Brandon is accustomed to executing and playing at a high level and being the perfectionist that he is, his expectations of himself are very high. Anything less than elite is unacceptable to him. As far as him not being there, this has been planned w/the Bears and Brandon long before yesterday. Any other suggestion, thought or implication are all unfair to Brandon and the Bears organization.
This actually creates more speculation for me, rather than ending it
 
Im.A.Wizard said:
Statement from Marshall's agent that should put an end to some of these speculations:

Brandon is accustomed to executing and playing at a high level and being the perfectionist that he is, his expectations of himself are very high. Anything less than elite is unacceptable to him. As far as him not being there, this has been planned w/the Bears and Brandon long before yesterday. Any other suggestion, thought or implication are all unfair to Brandon and the Bears organization.
Maybe he's taking the Sidney Rice route - Switzerland

 

HurryUpSundays

Footballguy
Brandon Marshall (hip) confirmed that will he will play Week 1.
Marshall is a little bit of a drama queen. Unlike former coach Lovie Smith, new boss Marc Trestman doesn't give many veteran days off. That hasn't sat well with Marshall, who is coming off a third hip procedure and has felt rushed. Here's the wideout's full quote on his status: "I woke up a couple days really sore when camp first started. I'm really much better now, but it's not where you want to be at this time, which has been a little frustrating. From an ability standpoint, I'm right where I need to be. I'm not at midseason form, but that's OK." Marshall has looked fine in preseason games, posting a 4/35/1 line on 50 snaps. ESPN Chicago reiterates he's "absolutely not" in danger of missing the opener.
Source: Brandon Marshall on Twitte

 

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