Player Spotlight: Brian Westbrook (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Brian Westbrook, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Player Page Link: Brian Westbrook Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[Polish Hammer]

A lot of people are probably down on Brian Westbrook based on his lack of durability from last season (only 12 games played). Add to this his up and down play the weeks he did suit up (65 points the first three weeks based on basic scoring, followed by 16 points the following three weeks) and owners have reason for concern if drafting Brian in the first few rounds.

But then we look at the surrounding circumstances. A less than effective McNabb throughout the year. An offensive line hurt and shuffled by injuries. The TO distraction. Mediocre at best WRs once TO was suspended. Are these things that create an environment where a RB like Westbrook can flourish? Doubtful. And still, he achieved per game averages very similar to 2004 when he was considered a highly productive RB. Using basic scoring of 1 pt per 10 yards rushing/receiving, no PPR, and 6 pts per TD, there is only a dropoff of 1.86 points per game from 2004 to 2005.

Now, many owners were anticipating an upswing from 2004 to 2005. Based on this Westbrook was drafted much higher than the prior year. PPR leagues probably saw an even greater jump in draft position for him. Many PPR leagues had him going in the late first round, early second. Clearly his performance didn't bear out this type of lofty draft position and he turned out to be a bad value choice at these slots.

Now we are looking at 2006 and a very different Eagles team. McNabb is said to be healthy entering the year and well rested having not played into the postseason for the first time in a number of years. The OL returns and by all reports is healthy. The backups at G and T spots are improved. TO is gone (both his productivity and his distraction factor). Coach Reid claims to be looking to increase the run to pass ratio.

Of all of these factors, it is the last one that I think bears the most influence on Westbrook's fortunes this year. Westbrook has only carried the ball 20+ times in a game twice in his career (regular season). Both of those games account for 2 of his 3 100+ yard rushing games. Does this mean we can expect him to become a workhorse and have multiple 20+ carry games this year? Probably not. Over the past two years Westbrook has averaged 13 (2005) and 13.6 (2004) carries per game. I can see that bumping up to about 15.5 this year. That reflects a modest 16% increase. Andy is increasing the runs, but I don't expect it to go crazy. With this increased workload, I expect Westbrook to miss two games this year. This is an increase in games played over the past two years. Call me an optimist. Doing the math, that would give Westbrook 217 carries for the season, a new high for him.

YPC with Westbrok can be tricky. His number actually decreased in 2005 as he received less carries than 2004. Both of these fall short of his lofty 5.2 YPC in 2003 when he served as a change of pace back to Staley and Buckhalter. Being more comfortable in the system, and having more chances to hit that "home run" I see an uptick for 2006 to about 4.3 YPC. This would give him 933 yards for the season. I'm projecting 4 TDs from him on the ground this year. If the Eagles run it near the goal line, I don't see Reid trying to have Westbrook hammer it in. If Buckhalter is healthy, he and Tapeh should see more of the goal line duty, with a few designed runs for McNabb as well. By the goal line Westbrook can do damage, but moreso when he is lined up wide or in the slot, or swinging out for a screen pass.

This brings us to the last major component of Westbrook: his value as a receiving RB. In PPR leagues, this is a big boost. Over the past two seasons he has averaged 5.36 receptions per game. In 2005, even with missing 4 games, he was the team's leading receiver by a wide margin. Revisiting Reid's run to pass ratio, I see about 4 more rushes per game and 4 less passes. This signifies about a 10% decrease in passing plays. Again, a move by Reid but not a drastic one. While TO is gone, we must assume some of the passes to him were designed "TO" plays. Therefore I would assume that about 20% (roughly 9) of his receptions were plays designed to go to him. Westbrook is now one of (if not the) main offensive weapon the Eagles posess. I expect that about 6 of those plays now go to Westbrook, on top of his normal percentage of plays (11% of Eagles passes were Westbrook receptions the past two years) that went to him. That totals about 67 receptions projected for Westbrook this year. As far as yardage goes I see him improving by about 0.4 YPR to 10.7 YPR, giving him a total of about 717 receiving yards. TDs are difficult to predict, so we'll average 2004 and 2005 and go with 5 as a conservative number.

Based on all that, here is the bottom line for Westbrook:

2006

Rushes Yards TD Receptions Yards TD217 913 4 67 717 5In basic scoring leagues, this would have him maxing out at 216 fantasy points over 14 games for an average of 15.43 per game. In PPR leagues, that jumps to 283 points for an average of 20.21 per game. Caveat Emptor: As was discussed, Westbrook is an injury threat. All players are, but it seems that Westbrook is moreso than other RBs. Based on that if you spend a high draft pick (rounds 1-3) on him, I would advise handcuffing him to Ryan Moats. He showed flashes last year and is very Westbrook-esque in his running style. He perhaps runs with a little more power and has slightly less receiving ability. If/when Westbrook misses time, you hopefully won't see a terrible dropoff in production to Moats.

 

[Jason Wood]

Excellent post Polish Hammer

For me, even being an Eagles homer, I can't get excited about Westbrook in traditional redraft leagues. But in PPR leagues, I think he makes a compelling 2nd RB to be sure.

Durability is a real issue, there's no escaping that and while he's on the field, he can help but ultimately you just don't know if he'll be out during critical matchups or, even worse, your fantasy playoffs.

 

[Polish Hammer]

Excellent post Polish Hammer

For me, even being an Eagles homer, I can't get excited about Westbrook in traditional redraft leagues. But in PPR leagues, I think he makes a compelling 2nd RB to be sure.

Durability is a real issue, there's no escaping that and while he's on the field, he can help but ultimately you just don't know if he'll be out during critical matchups or, even worse, your fantasy playoffs.

I hear you. This killed me last year. I am in a 14 team PPR league. Last season I drafted at the 13 slot, and then had the 16 slot as well. Lo and behold I had Domanick Davis with my first pick and Westbrook with my second. I cruised to the best regular season record our league ever saw, but then came in third in the playoffs due to losing those guys (mostly). Thanks for the props. Do you see my suppositions as reasonable?

 

[Jason Wood]

Excellent post Polish Hammer

For me, even being an Eagles homer, I can't get excited about Westbrook in traditional redraft leagues. But in PPR leagues, I think he makes a compelling 2nd RB to be sure.

Durability is a real issue, there's no escaping that and while he's on the field, he can help but ultimately you just don't know if he'll be out during critical matchups or, even worse, your fantasy playoffs.

I hear you. This killed me last year. I am in a 14 team PPR league. Last season I drafted at the 13 slot, and then had the 16 slot as well. Lo and behold I had Domanick Davis with my first pick and Westbrook with my second. I cruised to the best regular season record our league ever saw, but then came in third in the playoffs due to losing those guys (mostly). Thanks for the props. Do you see my suppositions as reasonable?

I think much of your analysis is spot on.

 

[mbuehner]

In a standard (non-ppr league), Westbrook's value is always going to depend on how many TDs he can score. The combination of his particular talents and the Eagles offensive philosophy dictate that his yardage will be split between receiving and rushing, and hence he wont reach the rushing bonus enough to be considered as a RB1, even with his receiving prowess.

Since 2003 the Eagles are dead last in RB rushing attempts in the league. Reid has said he intends to balance out the offense to some degree, but that must be taken in the context of last season where the pass to run ration was even more pass heavy than usual. That being said, Westbrook should see more carries this season and less receptions. That is not necessarilly a bad thing in non-PPR leagues. Westies yards per reception when TO was on the field to stretch the defense was considerably better than without. With no WRs worth speaking of, defenses will have only McNabb and Westbrook to worry about, and McNabb doesnt seem to run like he used to. This means defenses will likely be playing in nickel coverage to put a DB on Westbrook and limit his receiving threat (aside from the few teams with LBers fast enough to match up). If the Eagles do indeed take the running game more seriously, this should help Westy on the ground. I think his yards per catch suffers but his yards per rush benefits this season.

232 rushes, 1109 yards, 5 tds

67 rec, 449 yards, 2 tds

He'll be between RB 12-15 on my chart, a very nice RB2 if he can stay healthy. Anybody that doesnt have Westbrook within the top 15 must be predicting injury, he is too talented and too important a part of a his offense not to put up points week in and out. He's a good 'safe play' to have around as he consistantly scores you points points and occasionally has a huge game. Not spectacular, but solid and dependable when healthy. If you can grab the right 'break out' guy in the mid 1st and pair him up with Westy in the 2nd you are in really good shape to start off. After Westbrook there are a lot of question marks in the RBs. Westy has many less questions than Parker or JJ or KJ even with the injury shadow.

 

[ruelvis]

Being a cowboys fan living in philly, there are very few Eagles players that i've found myself cheering for over the years and Brian Westbrook is one of them. He's just too exciting to watch! IMO Westbrook is by far the most electrifying player to don the green and white since Randall Cunningham. While his skill set is outstanding, there are a few reasons why I don't think Westbrook will be an elite fantasy back, especially in non ppr leagues.

1) Health. Even if he comes back from last year's season ending injury like new (which, from what i've read, isn't an absolute lock), I think Reid will limit his touches in an attempt to keep him fresh for the playoffs. The Eagles' have experienced a lot of success having done everything in the new millenium but parade the Lombardi trophy down Broad Street. IMO making it to the playoffs simply isn't enough for Reid and Co. Been there done that. I really think Reid would prefer a return to a three-headed rbbc with westbrook, buckhalter (or some other goal line type back) and ryan moats to keep injuries down. McNabb gets all of the ink, but when TO went down two seasons ago it was a healthy Westbrook that, IMO, took them thru the playoffs to the Super Bowl. Giving Westrbook a 5 yr/$25 million contract extension the following summer is an indication that the Eagles organization saw the same thing I did. A healthy Westbrook come playoff time is mandatoryfor a philly parade and aside from beating the TO-toting cowboys that's all that matters in this town.

2) Lack of elite wr. Although Westbrook has the ability to score on any given play, it's pretty obvious that his strength lies in the receiving game, especially when covered by opposing LBs. Opposing defensive coordinators have to focus on matchups and ways of limiting the amount of times Westbrook gets the ball in open space. Obviously, this is easier when there isn't an eagles wr demanding double or triple coverage. If I were Reid I'd be lining up Westbrook all over the field to create mismatches, but obviously Reid and I don't see eye to eye.

3) Schedule. The rest of the NFC East defenses are getting better each year and the Eagles schedule is nothing short of brutal down the stretch of the fantasy season and into the fantasy playoffs. The early schedule looks promising for Westbrook with early matchups vs HOU, SF, GB and NO. With Indy and Carolina in weeks 12 & 13 followed by three straight road games vs division rivals Washington, NYG and Dallas during fantasy playoffs. The Eagles also face solid defenses like TB and JAX in what will most likely be low scoring games.

For these reasons I project him at

176 rushes, 686 yds, 3 tds

66 rec, 600 yds, 6 tds

I admit these stats are a bit conservative, but i could easily see myself bumping up his stats this summer so he moves up a few notches in the Draft Dominator...all along knowing that if i drafted him i'd look to trade him before week 5 when his stock is high (following what should be some nice games vs the Texans, 49ers and Packers) and so it will be easier to root against him vs my Cowboys!

 

[mbuehner]

Thats reminds me of another point about Eagles players in general this year: during the salad days you could basically pencil Philly in to the NFC title game before the season even started. Those days are gone. Generally you could count on McNabb and Westbrook to sit out the last game (fantasy SB for many) and be limited in at least the preceeding one, that hurt their value during crunch time more than any potential for injury!

With the improvements in the division and the general sense of inertia that seems to be present in this organization, i think its safe to say the Eagles are going to have to work just to get back in the playoffs, much less grab a big enough lead to consider sitting people late. Reed may prefer to limit Westbrook, but he may not have a choice. If the Eagles are having to claw and scrape their way through the season just to compete with NYG and Dallas, its going to be all hands on deck on the time. No sense in having a fresh star RB if your season is over after week 17.

Fantasy wise, this is feast or famine. Either Westbrook stays healthy and takes advantage of the extra touches, or the heavy toll of carrying the team sends him to the IR again. I think the bottom line with Westbrook is that if he can stay healthy he will have a career season (though still not an elite FF season), but his odds of getting nicked up are higher than ever as well.

 

[ruelvis]

Thats reminds me of another point about Eagles players in general this year: during the salad days you could basically pencil Philly in to the NFC title game before the season even started. Those days are gone. Generally you could count on McNabb and Westbrook to sit out the last game (fantasy SB for many) and be limited in at least the preceeding one, that hurt their value during crunch time more than any potential for injury!

With the improvements in the division and the general sense of inertia that seems to be present in this organization, i think its safe to say the Eagles are going to have to work just to get back in the playoffs, much less grab a big enough lead to consider sitting people late. Reed may prefer to limit Westbrook, but he may not have a choice. If the Eagles are having to claw and scrape their way through the season just to compete with NYG and Dallas, its going to be all hands on deck on the time. No sense in having a fresh star RB if your season is over after week 17.

Fantasy wise, this is feast or famine. Either Westbrook stays healthy and takes advantage of the extra touches, or the heavy toll of carrying the team sends him to the IR again. I think the bottom line with Westbrook is that if he can stay healthy he will have a career season (though still not an elite FF season), but his odds of getting nicked up are higher than ever as well.

feast or famine - very well put. as for your other comments, i can't really argue with them in principal, but i probably should have added that i flat out don't believe that the eagles will run more. well at least not THAT much more. the tougher the game the more they will lean on the pass and mcnabb's arm and i agree with you that the games will be tougher this season. when they get up on the niners and saints they will probably run a lot more than in years past, but i just dont see westbrook getting much more than half of the team carries which i estimate to be between 340 and 375. That might seem low, but the Eagles ran only 315 times during their super bowl campaign of 04.

Westbrook's career high was 177 carries in a 13 game season which equates to 217 carries over 16 games. IMO Moats performed well enough last season to earn 30% or so of the team's carries and even more in games where they are ahead. With HOU, SF, GB, NO & TEN on the schedule that could add up to quite a few carries. Keep in mind that the Eagles modus operandi has been to have a goal line back (i.e. staley, levins) and if buckhalter doesn't make it thru training camp healthy (we all know it's very likely that he won't) they will more than likely grab a veteran goal line back like a s. davis. i also think teams will be stacking the line vs a TOless offense causing westbrook's ypc to hover around 3.9 or 4.0.

westy's potential is high, so i don't have a problem with mbeuhner's total yardage or total tds for westy but i do contest the math:

232 rushes, 1109 yards, 5 tds

67 rec, 449 yards, 2 tds

those numbers equate to 4.78 yds per carry which i find to be a bit hefty - even more than guys like edge & tomlinson tend to average.

those numbers also equate to a paltry 6.7 yds per reception, far below his career average of 9.7. even a guy like mike alstott averages over 7.

the tendency may be to boost his numbers due to his upper tier potential, but history has taught me to be a bit conservative in my projections for players with injury history such as the westbrooks and ahman greens of the world. Doing so assures that i don't overreach for a player that could easily be on IR come fantasy crunch time.

 

[Illmatic]

Can I use this thread to determine whether he's stepping up or stepping down?

 

[patrickmcgroin]

Had him in a PPR league last season and he just wasn't worth the higher draft pick. Just not reliable enough for me, unless he fell in the draft.

 

[David Yudkin]

In 60 total games played (postseason included), Westbrook has had 20 carries only two times and 15 carries 11 times. If he played in every game, IMO he would have a max high end of about 240 carries.

200 carries x 4.2 ypc = 840 rushing yards

70 receptions x 9.5 ypr = 665 receiving yards

9 total TD

14 games played

204 fantasy points

Overall, very similar to 2004.

 

[jurb26]

I've given my thoughts on why several of the YPR totals we are seeing in this thread are too high in another thread. I find it hard to believe that Wesy will attain anything over 9.0 YPR this year w/o TO around and the extra attention from Ds. I do believe that Philly intends to run the ball more this year. I mean why wouldn't they after loosing one of the best WRs in the NFL? The real question I have is how are those carries distributed?

As of now, my projections:

195 carries, 840 yds, 4 TDs, 60 rec, 465 yds, 4 TDs

 

[mbuehner]

those numbers equate to 4.78 yds per carry which i find to be a bit hefty - even more than guys like edge & tomlinson tend to average.those numbers also equate to a paltry 6.7 yds per reception, far below his career average of 9.7. even a guy like mike alstott averages over

My thought process was that Westbrook's career average is 4.5 y/c, and that with defenses geared up to stop the pass Westy will find a tiny bit more room than usual. As to the receptions, I really think defenses first goal will be to stop Westbrook out of the backfield. When TO stopped playing, Westbrooks y/r dropped more than 2 full yards. Without a legit threat to stretch the field I think Westy wont be as successful as he has been in the past.That being said, 6.7 is probably a bit too low. LT2 was at 7.4 yards per catch last season, and I see something similar with Westbrook.

 

[jurb26]

those numbers equate to 4.78 yds per carry which i find to be a bit hefty - even more than guys like edge & tomlinson tend to average.

those numbers also equate to a paltry 6.7 yds per reception, far below his career average of 9.7. even a guy like mike alstott averages over

My thought process was that Westbrook's career average is 4.5 y/c, and that with defenses geared up to stop the pass Westy will find a tiny bit more room than usual. As to the receptions, I really think defenses first goal will be to stop Westbrook out of the backfield. When TO stopped playing, Westbrooks y/r dropped more than 2 full yards. Without a legit threat to stretch the field I think Westy wont be as successful as he has been in the past.That being said, 6.7 is probably a bit too low. LT2 was at 7.4 yards per catch last season, and I see something similar with Westbrook.

Pretty much right were I have him too.

 

[nygiants56]

I've given my thoughts on why several of the YPR totals we are seeing in this thread are too high in another thread.  I find it hard to believe that Wesy will attain anything over 9.0 YPR this year w/o TO around and the extra attention from Ds.  I do believe that Philly intends to run the ball more this year.  I mean why wouldn't they after loosing one of the best WRs in the NFL?  The real question I have is how are those carries distributed? 

As of now, my projections:

195 carries, 840 yds, 4 TDs, 60 rec, 465 yds, 4 TDs

180 carries, 792 yards, 4.4 per carry45 receptions,450 yards, 10 yards per reception

7 total TDs..

the NFC East is now incredibly strong, due to key free agent signings in the offseason.the Giants defense is significantly better, Redskins offense will improve and they have a top notch defense already, and Dallas got T.o., which is all they really needed to be a SB contender..

i'm not sure McNabb is the same MVP-quality QB he once was. Even before the injury last year, he looked disinterested in the game, and out of sync..Ever since that meltdown in the SB two years ago, McNabb has looked like a different QB..Maybe he reutrns to form in 2006, who knows!

If Reg Brown doesn't step up this year, Westy will see 8 man fronts as defenses look to focus on stopping him and forcing McNabb to use his mediocre WR's to beat them...

I'd put him somewhere between RB #15-18...

the injury risk is way to high for my liking, but, like another post mentioned, he is a feast or famine RB..IF he stays healthy, he could certainly be a top 10 RB in both ppr and non ppr leagues..

 

[David Yudkin]

Westbrook has posted ypr numbers of 9.6, 9.0, 9.6, and 10.1 over his career. He is not "just" a RB out of the backfield, as he lines up as a WR as well. IMO, he should have a ypr in the 9-9.5 range this year with or without Owens. DDavis has had an 8.6 ypr average over the past 2 seasons, and Houston did not exactly light it up in the passing game.

 

[David Yudkin]

I've given my thoughts on why several of the YPR totals we are seeing in this thread are too high in another thread.  I find it hard to believe that Wesy will attain anything over 9.0 YPR this year w/o TO around and the extra attention from Ds.  I do believe that Philly intends to run the ball more this year.  I mean why wouldn't they after loosing one of the best WRs in the NFL?  The real question I have is how are those carries distributed? 

As of now, my projections:

195 carries, 840 yds, 4 TDs, 60 rec, 465 yds, 4 TDs

180 carries, 792 yards, 4.4 per carry45 receptions,450 yards, 10 yards per reception

7 total TDs..

the NFC East is now incredibly strong, due to key free agent signings in the offseason.the Giants defense is significantly better, Redskins offense will improve and they have a top notch defense already, and Dallas got T.o., which is all they really needed to be a SB contender..

i'm not sure McNabb is the same MVP-quality QB he once was. Even before the injury last year, he looked disinterested in the game, and out of sync..Ever since that meltdown in the SB two years ago, McNabb has looked like a different QB..Maybe he reutrns to form in 2006, who knows!

If Reg Brown doesn't step up this year, Westy will see 8 man fronts as defenses look to focus on stopping him and forcing McNabb to use his mediocre WR's to beat them...

I'd put him somewhere between RB #15-18...

the injury risk is way to high for my liking, but, like another post mentioned, he is a feast or famine RB..IF he stays healthy, he could certainly be a top 10 RB in both ppr and non ppr leagues..

I have to ask the masses here as to why the low reception projections?Westbrook has averaged a lofty 5.76 receptions per game over the past two seasons. For those projected him at the same or greater workload in terms of rushes, why would he take a massive hit in his reception totals?

Over a 16-game season, Westbrook would have 92 receptions at his 5.76 weekly average. He had 61 in 12 games last year. Many are projecting him to play MORE but catch appreciably LESS. Whad up wit dat?

 

[jurb26]

Westbrook has posted ypr numbers of 9.6, 9.0, 9.6, and 10.1 over his career. He is not "just" a RB out of the backfield, as he lines up as a WR as well. IMO, he should have a ypr in the 9-9.5 range this year with or without Owens. DDavis has had an 8.6 ypr average over the past 2 seasons, and Houston did not exactly light it up in the passing game.

Your numbers are very misleading and you know that. Westy was a situational player before TO got there. Maybe you should revisit THIS THREAD where the impact of TO on Westy's rec numbers are well defined. TO had a large impact on Westy. There is no way around that. Before TO got there there Westy was splitting time with 2 other RBs and again could not be centered on. You can look at inflated past results all you want, the situations are far from the same and I would guess the outcomes won't be either.

 

[mbuehner]

Over a 16-game season, Westbrook would have 92 receptions at his 5.76 weekly average. He had 61 in 12 games last year. Many are projecting him to play MORE but catch appreciably LESS. Whad up wit dat?

Last season was an anomaly. The Eagles passed the ball 617 times, which is the 4th highest total of any team in the last four years. In the preceeding 3 years their totals were 548, 542, and 480. That averages to 523 passes per year, meaning last year was 15% more pass happy than usual. Reid has said he intends to balance out the offense, which I take to mean he will at least reduce his passing back to the norm. If Westbrook took just his fair share of the reduction, he would be project at 78 receptions (92x85%). However- if Reed is serious about balancing out the running game it makes the most sense to start handing the ball off in situations where last season they were throwing to the running back (swing passes etc), so I have estimated that RBs will suffer a bit more disproportionately than the other recievers as the Eagles reduce their pass plays. Furthermore, the current other RBs on the Eagles roster are pretty good pass catchers as well which I think will eat into Westies receptions more than usual.

 

[jurb26]

If Westbrook took just his fair share of the reduction, he would be project at 78 receptions (92x85%). However- if Reed is serious about balancing out the running game it makes the most sense to start handing the ball off in situations where last season they were throwing to the running back (swing passes etc), so I have estimated that RBs will suffer a bit more disproportionately than the other recievers as the Eagles reduce their pass plays. Furthermore, the current other RBs on the Eagles roster are pretty good pass catchers as well which I think will eat into Westies receptions more than usual.

One thing that is important to remember is that Reid/Philly are certainly not afraid to use several RBs to make their O work. Looking back, it would actually appear that this is the way they would LIKE to do things. Moreover, it would seem that the 2nd year on the team for a RB is the time in which Philly really expands a new RBs role (Staley 98, Westy 03). So, we may just hear a good bit more from Moats this year.

 

[David Yudkin]

If Westbrook took just his fair share of the reduction, he would be project at 78 receptions (92x85%). However- if Reed is serious about balancing out the running game it makes the most sense to start handing the ball off in situations where last season they were throwing to the running back (swing passes etc), so I have estimated that RBs will suffer a bit more disproportionately than the other recievers as the Eagles reduce their pass plays. Furthermore, the current other RBs on the Eagles roster are pretty good pass catchers as well which I think will eat into Westies receptions more than usual.

One thing that is important to remember is that Reid/Philly are certainly not afraid to use several RBs to make their O work. Looking back, it would actually appear that this is the way they would LIKE to do things. Moreover, it would seem that the 2nd year on the team for a RB is the time in which Philly really expands a new RBs role (Staley 98, Westy 03). So, we may just hear a good bit more from Moats this year.

I suspect Moats gets a lot more carries than he is currently projected at, but I still do not see Westy's receptions bottoming out. With Owens gone, he is probably their best WR (if not, then #2 after Brown). Philly has utilized a RBBC much of the time that Westbrook has been on the roster. I doubt that that philosopy will change this year either.

IF the Eagles are serious about cutting down the number of pass attempts to almost a 50/50 pass/run ratio, then I suspect McNabb's projections could be WAY off. FBG has the Eagles projected at 565 passes and 358 rushes.

 

[mbuehner]

IF the Eagles are serious about cutting down the number of pass attempts to almost a 50/50 pass/run ratio, then I suspect McNabb's projections could be WAY off. FBG has the Eagles projected at 565 passes and 358 rushes.

There is no way they go that far. This is still a pass first team, its just important to recognize that last season was off the charts- 620 passing attempts to 365 rushes. Even if the Eagles increased their rushes by 15% they are still in the bottom 10 in the league.The projection on McNabb is currently at 540 attempts- Garcia is down for 25 attempts which adds to 565. I do suspect this is too high, but on the other hand i dont expect Garcia will see the field unless McNabb gets hurt due to how tough the scedule is. If McNabb takes every snapp I think 540 is about right (87% of last seasons pass attempts).

 

[Snotbubbles]

Your numbers are very misleading and you know that. Westy was a situational player before TO got there. Maybe you should revisit THIS THREAD where the impact of TO on Westy's rec numbers are well defined. TO had a large impact on Westy. There is no way around that. Before TO got there there Westy was splitting time with 2 other RBs and again could not be centered on. You can look at inflated past results all you want, the situations are far from the same and I would guess the outcomes won't be either.

jurb,Just curious? You believe that the loss of Owens will negatively impact Westbrook to the tune of about 2 less yards per reception. Question: Is this based on a historical study you've done where a team lost a #1 WR and the impact it has on the RB recieving #'s, or are you just using a gut feeling? If you did do a study what year(s) are you looking at?

 

[ruelvis]

yes, a study would be interesting but keep in mind that before TO they really didn't have a #1 superstar wr. Westbrook averaged over 9.0 ypr in those years. in addition (as someone else said above), it's not rare for westbrook to line up as a wr. i wouldn't be surprised to see some experimenting with both moats and westrbook in the same backfield with one or both going in motion to line up as wide receivers.

i also agree with the comment that they are a pass first team. i really believe they think the downslide last year was due in large part to mcnabb's health & TO's distraction and they will revert back to the pass heavy offense that carried them to the conference championship game year after year. their early schedule lends itself to running out the clock with big leads & that will give us the mirage of them changing their passs/run ratio, but when the going gets tough mcnabb will be slinging the ball.

 

[David Yudkin]

Your numbers are very misleading and you know that. Westy was a situational player before TO got there. Maybe you should revisit THIS THREAD where the impact of TO on Westy's rec numbers are well defined. TO had a large impact on Westy. There is no way around that. Before TO got there there Westy was splitting time with 2 other RBs and again could not be centered on. You can look at inflated past results all you want, the situations are far from the same and I would guess the outcomes won't be either.

jurb,Just curious? You believe that the loss of Owens will negatively impact Westbrook to the tune of about 2 less yards per reception.

Question: Is this based on a historical study you've done where a team lost a #1 WR and the impact it has on the RB recieving #'s, or are you just using a gut feeling?

If you did do a study what year(s) are you looking at?

Here are some instances where teams lost a Top 5 WR and the impact it had on their RB receptions. This is flaVVed on so many levels, but I will post the numbers anyway.RB w/Rice in SF 00

106-983-7-9.27

RB w/o Rice in SF 01

91-784-4-8.62

RB w/Owens in SF 03

79-702-3-8.89

RB w/o Owens SF 04

87-584-0-6.71

RB w/Muhammad CAR 04

78-668-3-8.56

RB w/o Muhammad CAR 05

67-655-1-9.78

RB w/Moss MIN 04

106-1081-4-10.2

RB w/o Moss MIN 05

72-515-4-7.15

RB w/Sharpe GB 94

127-1022-5-8.05

RB w/o Sharpe GB 95

112-1103-8-9.85

RB w/Jefferson SD 80

92-794-1-8.63

RB w/o Jefferson SD 81

112-929-6-8.29

There may be more examples, but none that jump out at me. And my main issue is that all of these examples have other factors that changes as well (coaches, injuries, RBs, other offensive personnel). But my biggest concern is that most of these teams did not have a RB that played part time lining up as a WR.

 

[zadok]

Brian Westbrook has been given 20 or more touches per game 13 times in his career. In those 13 games, he piled up 1,655 total yards and 8 TDs. I do believe Reid when he says they will run the ball significantly more this year than in the past 2. Moats WILL get his touches too, but if they can get Westbrook the ball enough, a 2,000 total yard season with double digit TDs is not out of the question. Conservatively (at 16-17 touches/game):

200 rushes, 900 rush yards, 5 rush TDs

60 receptions, 600 rec yards, 5 rec TDs

They didn't give him that fat new contract to be a minor player.

 

[ruelvis]

Your numbers are very misleading and you know that. Westy was a situational player before TO got there. Maybe you should revisit THIS THREAD where the impact of TO on Westy's rec numbers are well defined. TO had a large impact on Westy. There is no way around that. Before TO got there there Westy was splitting time with 2 other RBs and again could not be centered on. You can look at inflated past results all you want, the situations are far from the same and I would guess the outcomes won't be either.

jurb,Just curious? You believe that the loss of Owens will negatively impact Westbrook to the tune of about 2 less yards per reception.

Question: Is this based on a historical study you've done where a team lost a #1 WR and the impact it has on the RB recieving #'s, or are you just using a gut feeling?

If you did do a study what year(s) are you looking at?

There may be more examples, but none that jump out at me. And my main issue is that all of these examples have other factors that changes as well (coaches, injuries, RBs, other offensive personnel). But my biggest concern is that most of these teams did not have a RB that played part time lining up as a WR.

SOOOO many variables...i kinda doubt coryell (spelling?) ever said he was going to run more...

feast or famine, feast or famine...what i think we're all confirming is that this guy could be a huge steal or a huge bust. it will be interesting to see how his adp moves this summer.

and fyi - at least 6 of those 13 games in the above post were with TO on the squad

 

[mbuehner]

There may be more examples, but none that jump out at me. And my main issue is that all of these examples have other factors that changes as well (coaches, injuries, RBs, other offensive personnel). But my biggest concern is that most of these teams did not have a RB that played part time lining up as a WR.

I dont understand the lining up at WR argument. Assumedly Westbrook was lining up as WR when TO was here as well, what has changed that will affect his yards per receptions aside from losing a huge coverage problem for the defense? How can losing TO not diminish his y/r? It seems to me a question of how much, not if. So Westy becomes McNabbs favorite downfield target? I doubt that.Just because your RB lines up at WR doesnt mean he runs the same patterns. You line him up out there a DB covers him, I dont think he is running post patterns all the sudden. The idea is to get the underneath passes to get your RB into open space... but without TO that open space is a lot smaller. Westy will be getting a lot more attention and assumedly tackled a lot sooner, hence the reduction in yards per.

Comparisons to other RBs is a very spotty thing. This is a very specific situation. I just dont see how his yards per catch can do anything but suffer, its a matter of how severely.

 

[jurb26]

yes, a study would be interesting but keep in mind that before TO they really didn't have a #1 superstar wr. Westbrook averaged over 9.0 ypr in those years. in addition (as someone else said above), it's not rare for westbrook to line up as a wr. i wouldn't be surprised to see some experimenting with both moats and westrbook in the same backfield with one or both going in motion to line up as wide receivers.

The year in which Westy had 9.0, he was in a commitee of 3 RBs. Staley, Buck and Westy. This year, it appears as though the one and only threat Ds need to contain is Westy. Unless Moats of course proves to be a nice option, which is very possible. If Moats does however, he will be stealing form Westy's touches which can't be good for FF purposes. Snott, I know you read the other thread.

 

[jurb26]

There may be more examples, but none that jump out at me. And my main issue is that all of these examples have other factors that changes as well (coaches, injuries, RBs, other offensive personnel). But my biggest concern is that most of these teams did not have a RB that played part time lining up as a WR.

I dont understand the lining up at WR argument. Assumedly Westbrook was lining up as WR when TO was here as well, what has changed that will affect his yards per receptions aside from losing a huge coverage problem for the defense? How can losing TO not diminish his y/r? It seems to me a question of how much, not if. So Westy becomes McNabbs favorite downfield target? I doubt that.Just because your RB lines up at WR doesnt mean he runs the same patterns. You line him up out there a DB covers him, I dont think he is running post patterns all the sudden. The idea is to get the underneath passes to get your RB into open space... but without TO that open space is a lot smaller. Westy will be getting a lot more attention and assumedly tackled a lot sooner, hence the reduction in yards per.

Comparisons to other RBs is a very spotty thing. This is a very specific situation. I just dont see how his yards per catch can do anything but suffer, its a matter of how severely.

I don't see how this lining up at WR thing holds any water either. Big deal, so Westy lines up at WR. The past 2 years, with TO there who do you think the D was focused on even if Westy did line up at WR? It was TO. Now, they can pull from that double coverage and give aid to the guy covering the new most dangerous weapon in the passing game, Westy. It does not matter how you try and slice it, DC will be focused on Westy and they will locate him on the field. They would be fools not too. Unless another person can step up or Philly can devise tremendous plays/formation shifts to confuse Ds and free Westy. I can't see how his avg does not suffer.

 

[David Yudkin]

There may be more examples, but none that jump out at me. And my main issue is that all of these examples have other factors that changes as well (coaches, injuries, RBs, other offensive personnel). But my biggest concern is that most of these teams did not have a RB that played part time lining up as a WR.

I dont understand the lining up at WR argument. Assumedly Westbrook was lining up as WR when TO was here as well, what has changed that will affect his yards per receptions aside from losing a huge coverage problem for the defense? How can losing TO not diminish his y/r? It seems to me a question of how much, not if. So Westy becomes McNabbs favorite downfield target? I doubt that.Just because your RB lines up at WR doesnt mean he runs the same patterns. You line him up out there a DB covers him, I dont think he is running post patterns all the sudden. The idea is to get the underneath passes to get your RB into open space... but without TO that open space is a lot smaller. Westy will be getting a lot more attention and assumedly tackled a lot sooner, hence the reduction in yards per.

Comparisons to other RBs is a very spotty thing. This is a very specific situation. I just dont see how his yards per catch can do anything but suffer, its a matter of how severely.

IMO, there is a huge difference between a RB that is only getting safety value dumpoffs and screen passes 8 yards behind the line of scrimmage than a guy that has plays designed for him as a WR as well.There were 77 WR last year that had 30 catches and at least a 10.0 ypr. There were also 3 RB with Westbrook at 10.1 ypr (LJohnson had a 10.4 and Foster a 10.9).

There were two other RB in the range that I suggested Westbrrok would fall in (9.0-9.5): Droughns at 9.5 and MMoore at 9.2.

FWIW, there were 7 regular and post-season games in 2004 and 2005 that Westbrook played but Owens did not. In those games, Westbrook had 32-279-1-8.72.

Over a full season (assuming nothing changed), that would get Westbrook 73 receptions, 638 yards, and 2 receiving TD to add on to whatever his rushing totals were.

 

[mbuehner]

IMO, there is a huge difference between a RB that is only getting safety value dumpoffs and screen passes 8 yards behind the line of scrimmage than a guy that has plays designed for him as a WR as well.

Of course there is a difference, but thats not at issue here. Its not like Westbrook is doing anything different this season so how does that argument enter into it? He was lined up on the LOS last year and the year before and this year, so why does that mitigate the loss of a premier offensive player that ate up coverage? If McNabb blew out a knee and Johnny No-Neck was throwing to him, would you argue that Westies numbers wont suffer because he's lining up as a WR (still)? What does one thing have to do with the other?

FWIW, there were 7 regular and post-season games in 2004 and 2005 that Westbrook played but Owens did not. In those games, Westbrook had 32-279-1-8.72.Over a full season (assuming nothing changed), that would get Westbrook 73 receptions, 638 yards, and 2 receiving TD to add on to whatever his rushing totals were.

I have no argument with that, aside from still thinking the yards per is too high. Defenses have now had time to figure the Eagles out and I think there numbers will decline in general even past the 'TO' factor. With TO he was averaging 10.24 a catch, the point is thats not going to happen this season.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Ok jurb I finally got a chance to read the thread you posted. Essentially, what you came up with was that Westbrooks number would take a nosedive because TO would not be there to stretch the field anymore. You back that up by pulling the numbers in 2004 and 2005 for all the games that Westbrook played with and without TO.

Well, you can take the numbers from 2004 and they don't look good for Westy either:With TO:5.61 rec, 54.07 yds, 0.46 TDs per gameW/o TO:5.00 rec, 43.00 yds, 0.50 TDs per gameNot as much of a drop off, but it was only 2 games in 2004 and that 1 TD he scored really bails out the stats IMO.

First problem I see with this. 3 of those 7 games Westbrook played without TO in 2004 and 2005 he also played without McNabb. So in the games @NYG, GB and SEA in 2005 his recieving numbers looked like this:4-57-04-11-05-38-0AVG: 4.3-35.3-0 (ypc: 8.2)That was with Mike McMahon and Koy Detmer throwing the ball, 60% of the starting offensive line on IR and their #1 and #2 WRs not playing.In the two games he played (in 05) without TO but with an injured McNabb (no #1 or #2 WR and an O-Line with a ton of injuries) @WAS and DAL his recieving numbers looked like this:4-55-05-32-04.5-43.5-0 (ypc: 9.7)Yet you indicate in your projections that he will only average 7.75:

195 carries, 840 yds, 4 TDs, 60 rec, 465 yds, 4 TDs

I'm even playing your game and not using 2002 or 2003. But historically apart from the 3 games he played with Mike McMahon at QB he's been over 9.0 in ypc average. So unless you are predicting that McNabb/Pinkston/the OLine will be injured again your ypc is way to LOW.Second problem I see is you keep throwing around this notion that TO "stretches" the field. TO never "stretched" the field. Sure, he made defenses roll their coverage to him and made a safety help out, but he was used more on the the shorter passes and crossing passes and turned them into long gains rather than "stretching" the field, that was Todd Pinkston's job.Example: In 2004 TO's ypc was 15.6 his yac was 5.2 which means he was on average catching his balls 10.4 yards from the line of scrimmage (in 2006 his ypc was 16.2 but his yac was 7.2). Of his 77 catches only 9 were 40+ (11.6%).By the same token in 2004 Todd Pinkston had a ypc of 18.8, his yac was 5.4 so he was on average catching the ball 13.4 yards from the line of scrimmage. Of his 36 catches 6 were 40+ (16.7%).Finally, in 2005 because McNabb was injured it was obvious that he was visibly unable to run the ball. Defenses no longer had to use a spy on McNabb which freed up a defensive player. In spite of the loss of Pinkston...the real field "stretcher." The obvious injury and inability to run from McNabb, injuries galore along the offensive line, Westbrook was still able to average 10 ypc (9.0 with McNabb and without TO/Pinkston). Yet you seem to have him slipping to 7.75 when historically he's always been at least 9.0. Next you're gonna try and sell me that Al Saunders was the reason the Kansas City Chief offense was so good, right?

 

[jurb26]

Ok jurb I finally got a chance to read the thread you posted. Essentially, what you came up with was that Westbrooks number would take a nosedive because TO would not be there to stretch the field anymore. You back that up by pulling the numbers in 2004 and 2005 for all the games that Westbrook played with and without TO.

Well, you can take the numbers from 2004 and they don't look good for Westy either:

With TO:

5.61 rec, 54.07 yds, 0.46 TDs per game

W/o TO:

5.00 rec, 43.00 yds, 0.50 TDs per game

Not as much of a drop off, but it was only 2 games in 2004 and that 1 TD he scored really bails out the stats IMO.

First problem I see with this. 3 of those 7 games Westbrook played without TO in 2004 and 2005 he also played without McNabb. So in the games @NYG, GB and SEA in 2005 his recieving numbers looked like this:4-57-0

4-11-0

5-38-0

AVG: 4.3-35.3-0 (ypc: 8.2)

That was with Mike McMahon and Koy Detmer throwing the ball, 60% of the starting offensive line on IR and their #1 and #2 WRs not playing.

In the two games he played (in 05) without TO but with an injured McNabb (no #1 or #2 WR and an O-Line with a ton of injuries) @WAS and DAL his recieving numbers looked like this:

4-55-0

5-32-0

4.5-43.5-0 (ypc: 9.7)

Yet you indicate in your projections that he will only average 7.75:

195 carries, 840 yds, 4 TDs, 60 rec, 465 yds, 4 TDs

I'm even playing your game and not using 2002 or 2003. But historically apart from the 3 games he played with Mike McMahon at QB he's been over 9.0 in ypc average. So unless you are predicting that McNabb/Pinkston/the OLine will be injured again your ypc is way to LOW.Second problem I see is you keep throwing around this notion that TO "stretches" the field. TO never "stretched" the field. Sure, he made defenses roll their coverage to him and made a safety help out, but he was used more on the the shorter passes and crossing passes and turned them into long gains rather than "stretching" the field, that was Todd Pinkston's job.

Example: In 2004 TO's ypc was 15.6 his yac was 5.2 which means he was on average catching his balls 10.4 yards from the line of scrimmage (in 2006 his ypc was 16.2 but his yac was 7.2). Of his 77 catches only 9 were 40+ (11.6%).

By the same token in 2004 Todd Pinkston had a ypc of 18.8, his yac was 5.4 so he was on average catching the ball 13.4 yards from the line of scrimmage. Of his 36 catches 6 were 40+ (16.7%).

Finally, in 2005 because McNabb was injured it was obvious that he was visibly unable to run the ball. Defenses no longer had to use a spy on McNabb which freed up a defensive player.

In spite of the loss of Pinkston...the real field "stretcher." The obvious injury and inability to run from McNabb, injuries galore along the offensive line, Westbrook was still able to average 10 ypc (9.0 with McNabb and without TO/Pinkston). Yet you seem to have him slipping to 7.75 when historically he's always been at least 9.0.

Next you're gonna try and sell me that Al Saunders was the reason the Kansas City Chief offense was so good, right?

They need a smillie for homer glasses.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Typical reply from someone who has no retort.

 

[jurb26]

Typical reply from someone who has no retort.

There is no reason to reply to it, we will end up running in circles for hours.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Fair enough...just answer me these few questions.

Westbrooks career ypc average is around 9.0.

Westbrook played 3 games last year without TO or Pinkston, without McNabb, without 2 or 3 starters on the offensive line and a defense that was in shambles, yet he still averaged 8.2 ypc.

Your projections have him at 7.75 ypc for this year.

You can't possibly believe that his situation will be worse than it was for his last three games before he got hurt, can you?

How or where are you coming up with 7.75 as a number, at a minimum you should have him at 8.2, and that would be a worst-case projection?

 

[jurb26]

Westbrook played 3 games last year without TO or Pinkston, without McNabb, without 2 or 3 starters on the offensive line and a defense that was in shambles, yet he still averaged 8.2 ypc.

Care to explain? They didn't have Pinkston at all last year.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Yeah. I'm just putting in all the starters that they lost due to suspension or injury. TO will be the only person not coming back. Irrelevant to this discussion. Please...answer my questions. I'm anxious to hear your response.

 

[jurb26]

Yeah. I'm just putting in all the starters that they lost due to suspension or injury. TO will be the only person not coming back. Irrelevant to this discussion. Please...answer my questions. I'm anxious to hear your response.

How is it irrelevant. You are cherry picking 3 games w/o Pinkston when they never had Pinkston for ANY games last year. I don't even now what freaking games you are talking about here. I guess the real question is how did you arive at these 3 games w/o Pinkston from last year out of the 16 they played w/o Pinkston?

 

[Snotbubbles]

Stop side-stepping. I threw Pinkston in there because they are getting him back this year and as much as I don't like Pinkston, I think he is an upgrade over Greg Lewis. The three games I'm talking about are the three games after McNabb went on IR. @NYG, GB and SEA. In those 3 games, with Mike McMahon/Koy Detmer at QB, without TO, with Greg Lewis and Reggie Brown at WR. Without Tra Thomas, Artis Hicks or Hank Fraley on the o-line, Westbrook averaged 8.2 ypc.Now please...if you can...answer my questions.

You can't possibly believe that his situation will be worse than it was for his last three games before he got hurt, can you? How or where are you coming up with 7.75 as a number, at a minimum you should have him at 8.2, and that would be a worst-case projection?

I'm trying to help you out here by showing you that your projections are too low. I really think you just arbitrarily threw out some numbers, without really thinking about it too much.

 

[mbuehner]

The real question is why is Todd Pinkston being seriously discussed as though he is an impact player in the NFL, much less has any comparison to Terrell Owens. Todd Pinkston has never caused a CB to stretch a hammy, much less stretched the field.

 

[jurb26]

The real question is why is Todd Pinkston being seriously discussed as though he is an impact player in the NFL, much less has any comparison to Terrell Owens. Todd Pinkston has never caused a CB to stretch a hammy, much less stretched the field.

Very true. Apperently he is a great assest coming back for some reason though.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Still no answer to my questions. Jurb, we both know your projections are too low. Just make sure you fix them before your draft.

 

[jurb26]

Still no answer to my questions. Jurb, we both know your projections are too low. Just make sure you fix them before your draft.

Look at those games logs. You will see yet again that when a WR is open making plays down the field then Westy greatly benifits. In the NYG game, all of Brown (3/88), Lewis (3/64) and Smith (7/84) did this. Westy gets 4/57. In the GB and Sea games, they all lay eggs, and so does Westy.... 4/11 and 5/38.So, how confidnet are you exaclty in the WRs you will enter the year with? I'm not very confident in them at all. That is why my projections are in your opinion "low."

 

[LTsharks]

Still no answer to my questions. Jurb, we both know your projections are too low. Just make sure you fix them before your draft.

Look at those games logs. You will see yet again that when a WR is open making plays down the field then Westy greatly benifits. In the NYG game, all of Brown (3/88), Lewis (3/64) and Smith (7/84) did this. Westy gets 4/57. In the GB and Sea games, they all lay eggs, and so does Westy.... 4/11 and 5/38.So, how confidnet are you exaclty in the WRs you will enter the year with? I'm not very confident in them at all. That is why my projections are in your opinion "low."

Maybe you should look at the game logs jurb, or at least read Snot's posts to see what he is getting at. Way to focus on Pinkston to stay away from the main points.In those 3 games, without McNabb and without many other offensive players, Westbrook put up 13-106. This projects to 69-565. Was one of those games above average, one almost at the average, and one below average? Sure, so the results seem about as realistic as they could be with such a small sample size.

The point is that the Eagles offense was a mess at that point last year and Westbrook still put up better numbers then you are projecting. This seems to say to me that your entire 'TO isn't there point' is pretty much worthless if you are trying to use that to lower Westbrooks ypr to 7.75.

If you think he will be hurt too much, or McNabb will be hurt again, or if you think the Eagles aren't very good, that is all fine. But there is no real evidence to show that his ypr should drop to the area where you are placing it.

 

[jurb26]

Still no answer to my questions. Jurb, we both know your projections are too low. Just make sure you fix them before your draft.

Look at those games logs. You will see yet again that when a WR is open making plays down the field then Westy greatly benifits. In the NYG game, all of Brown (3/88), Lewis (3/64) and Smith (7/84) did this. Westy gets 4/57. In the GB and Sea games, they all lay eggs, and so does Westy.... 4/11 and 5/38.So, how confidnet are you exaclty in the WRs you will enter the year with? I'm not very confident in them at all. That is why my projections are in your opinion "low."

Maybe you should look at the game logs jurb, or at least read Snot's posts to see what he is getting at. Way to focus on Pinkston to stay away from the main points.In those 3 games, without McNabb and without many other offensive players, Westbrook put up 13-106. This projects to 69-565. Was one of those games above average, one almost at the average, and one below average? Sure, so the results seem about as realistic as they could be with such a small sample size.

The point is that the Eagles offense was a mess at that point last year and Westbrook still put up better numbers then you are projecting. This seems to say to me that your entire 'TO isn't there point' is pretty much worthless if you are trying to use that to lower Westbrooks ypr to 7.75.

If you think he will be hurt too much, or McNabb will be hurt again, or if you think the Eagles aren't very good, that is all fine. But there is no real evidence to show that his ypr should drop to the area where you are placing it.

You have successfully missed the point like Snott has. The point is that when the WRs or a WR (TO) takes the pressure off Westy in the passing game, he produces at a much higher level. This is not a difficult concept and one that has been consistent throughout. I don't see any playmakers at WR for Philly to consistently releave that pressure, do you? I stand by my point. Unless someone steps up in Philly, I see a rather large drop for Westy. Could someone step up? Sure, Moats and Brown could both see greatly increased roles. Pinkston is an after thought IMO. He does not scare nickle backs let alone top CBs. Why Pinkston ever became part of this debate is beyond me. If you guys would like to keep pointing to Pinkston, then why don't we point out the drastic increase Pinkston saw with the arival of TO? A guy with a career YPC of 15.3 skyrockets up to 18.8 the one year he had TO across the field creating space and tieing up double coverage. What is your explaination for this?

 

[LTsharks]

Still no answer to my questions.  Jurb, we both know your projections are too low.  Just make sure you fix them before your draft.

Look at those games logs. You will see yet again that when a WR is open making plays down the field then Westy greatly benifits. In the NYG game, all of Brown (3/88), Lewis (3/64) and Smith (7/84) did this. Westy gets 4/57. In the GB and Sea games, they all lay eggs, and so does Westy.... 4/11 and 5/38.So, how confidnet are you exaclty in the WRs you will enter the year with? I'm not very confident in them at all. That is why my projections are in your opinion "low."

Maybe you should look at the game logs jurb, or at least read Snot's posts to see what he is getting at. Way to focus on Pinkston to stay away from the main points.In those 3 games, without McNabb and without many other offensive players, Westbrook put up 13-106. This projects to 69-565. Was one of those games above average, one almost at the average, and one below average? Sure, so the results seem about as realistic as they could be with such a small sample size.

The point is that the Eagles offense was a mess at that point last year and Westbrook still put up better numbers then you are projecting. This seems to say to me that your entire 'TO isn't there point' is pretty much worthless if you are trying to use that to lower Westbrooks ypr to 7.75.

If you think he will be hurt too much, or McNabb will be hurt again, or if you think the Eagles aren't very good, that is all fine. But there is no real evidence to show that his ypr should drop to the area where you are placing it.

You have successfully missed the point like Snott has. The point is that when the WRs or a WR (TO) takes the pressure off Westy in the passing game, he produces at a much higher level. This is not a difficult concept and one that has been consistent throughout. I don't see any playmakers at WR for Philly to consistently releave that pressure, do you? I stand by my point. Unless someone steps up in Philly, I see a rather large drop for Westy. Could someone step up? Sure, Moats and Brown could both see greatly increased roles. Pinkston is an after thought IMO. He does not scare nickle backs let alone top CBs. Why Pinkston ever became part of this debate is beyond me. If you guys would like to keep pointing to Pinkston, then why don't we point out the drastic increase Pinkston saw with the arival of TO? A guy with a career YPC of 15.3 skyrockets up to 18.8 the one year he had TO across the field creating space and tieing up double coverage. What is your explaination for this?

I didn't point to Pinkston, just mentioned that you used him as a distraction to the debate. I agree with you about that, I don't care if he plays this year or not, it won't have much, if any, effect on Westbrook.In the 3 games last year with wrs that are no better then what they will have this year and with qbs that were much worse then what he will have this year, Westbrook averaged 8.2 ypr.

You are the one who refuses to back up your claim that things will somehow be worse for Westbrook in 2006 then they were in those 3 games. And since in the other thread you liked using last years split stats for with/without TO, with different QBs and small sample sizes for the basis of your argument, the fact that you continue to ignore the above points make your case seem rather weak.

Personally, I'm not sure what any of the data from last year is worth. I wouldn't count on it much for making projections.

 

[zadok]

The point is that when the WRs or a WR (TO) takes the pressure off Westy in the passing game, he produces at a much higher level. This is not a difficult concept and one that has been consistent throughout. I don't see any playmakers at WR for Philly to consistently releave that pressure, do you?

Did they have playmakers at WR before TO? No, they did not. Westbrook yds/rec pre-Owens:

2002 = 9.6

2003 = 9.0

Considering his average in 2004 (with Owens) was 9.6 - the SAME as in 2002 - it is NOT true that he "produces at a much higher level" with a playmaking WR. He has been extemely consistent at 9.6, 9.0, 9.6 and 10.1.