Player Spotlight: Byron Leftwich (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Byron Leftwich, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Player Page Link: Byron Leftwich Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[AeroFANatic]

I am really high on Leftwich, and I thought his 3rd season (last year) would have been his breakout year. Injuries slowed him down, but with the Jags continuing to get him better offensive weapons...this is the year he jumps into the top 13 QB's. The loss of Smith tempers TD expectations a tad....

3500 yds, 20 TDs, 17 INTs, 140 rushing yds, 3 TDs.

Solid for a #2 Qb who, in a nice QBBC approach, can win you your league.

 

[Jason Wood]

Byron Leftwich is one of those guys I think I just won't believe is going to be elite (from a fantasy perspective) until I see it with my own eyes. While that means I'm in danger of missing out on a value pick in the mid rounds, I just can't envision happily drafting Lefty as my QB. As a QBBC? Perhaps...but to lead my squad? Just not seeing it.

Jimmy Smith was getting on with age, but his loss will be hard felt. I'm fairly constructive on Matt Jones (after not being a believer after the April draft a year ago) but I don't feel the same about Wilford or Williams (Williams in particular doesn't impress me).

But ultimately capping Leftwich's fantasy value IMHO is Jack Del Rio and Carl Smith. Recall that when the Jags hired Smith, I was critical of the move because he had the reputation for being among the league's most conservative play callers while in New Orleans under Jim Mora. I questioned whether an old dog could learn new tricks (Smith spent time at USC as an assistant in between NFL stints), and yet I'm not sure he really has learned.

Without the aid of a punishing ground game (it's a motley crew ex-Fred Taylor), I just don't see why opposing defenses won't continue to blitz Leftwich with abandon.

Secondary risk points to consider are:

1) The status of the offensive line

2) Leftwich's conditioning (that gut doesn't help his already questionable mobility)

Currently, I rank him as a middle-of-the-pack QB2 in 12-team leagues, or a not-so-compelling QB2 in 10-team leagues...Staff QB Rankings

Leftwich Projections

280 competions
465 attempts
60.2% completion percentage
3,150 passing yards
6.8 yards per attempt
19 TDs
10 INTs
100 rushing yards
2 rushing TDs
246 fantasy points (FBG scoring)

 

[Longrifle]

Leftwich is a tough player to project this season. He has lost his main weapon J. Smith in the off season and has not played a complete season in his entire NFL career. His WR are young (Wilford 2yr NFL experience, Williams 2 yr NFL experience, and Jones 1 yr NFL experience). Combine that with his 3 yrs NFL experience and the Jags passing game looks mighty young. I personally think the Jags passing game, and in turn Leftwich, will either have a good season or an extremely bad season. I think Leftwich is serviceable QB2 with upside. The “upside” depends on how the young receivers develop.

Passing Yards 3,600

Passing TDs 20

Ints 10

Rush Yards 120

Rush TDs 2

 

[LHUCKS]

While that means I'm in danger of missing out on a value pick in the mid rounds, I just can't envision happily drafting Lefty as my QB. As a QBBC? Perhaps...but to lead my squad? Just not seeing it.

Well, the FBG consensus had him ranked at #18, so he easily can be a part of a QBBC. My concern with Lefty this year has more to do about his inexperienced receiving threats. The loss of Jimmy could be a big deal IMHO.

Projections up shortly...

 

[David Yudkin]

I was fairly high on Leftwich before Smith retired. Ignoring the game in which he got hurt very earlier in the game, he ranked 9th in PPG last year (and fractions of a point behind EManning for 8th).

I think he could still fare above average, but IMO he drops from the Top 10 into the Top 15.

 

[Phlash]

ypg goes down, but TDs per game seem like they should go up with Ernest "Endzone" Wilford and Matt "6'6, 235lbs" Jones catching balls

Heres my projection for him and the rest of his passing offense

Byron's going to have a Drew Brees type season in '06 methinks.

275/450, 61.1%cmp, 3210 yards, 7.13ypa, 25 TDs, 9 INTs

Ernest Wilford - 80/1100/11

Matt Jones - 60/800/7

Reggie Williams - 40/500/3

TEs - 45/450/2

RBs - 50/360/2

 

[This_Is_Not_VRR]

David Garrard is better than Leftwich.

 

[Ozymandias]

David Garrard is better than Leftwich.

He could be, but unless Leftwich gets injured he won't be starting.

 

[Jason Wood]

When Leftwich came into the league, his detractors pointed to the shotgun-heavy offense he ran at Marshall. The Jags moved away from that at first, because it was harder to run the ball consistently playing in the shotgun, but Leftwich suggested a return to the shotgun at least in certain situations.

Now that he's been in the league for awhile, who thinks he can consistently excel as a dropback passer? Are those concerns still an issue in your minds? Why/Why not?

 

[Byron_nyc]

Massive upside, but injury prone. Last, year management finally suited the game plan to the athlete, and Byron was able to throw down the field. The loss of Jimmy Smith might help Byron, as the QB can set the tempo for three young wideouts with the best overall potential outside Detroit. Above all, JAX is a really good football team. Leftwich to me this year will be statistically somewhere in the QB 8-12 range, and probably will be available in the last rounds of a draft. Nice little flier for the right buyer, and maybe a good member of a QBBC.

300 3200 18TDs 13 Ints.

 

[Traders2001]

David Garrard is better than Leftwich.

Agreed 200%.

 

[Wadsworth]

There's a lot going on in Jacksonville and all the offensive fantasy players are tough to predict. Leftwich is no exception. As mentioned above, Leftwich came from an almost shotgun only, heavy passing offense at Marshall, to a almost all drop back ball control offense/short passing offense with the Jags. Yet he still had a very good rookie season on a very bad team. He improved his second season in almost every measurable. The same can be said of of his third season inspite of a new offense getting put in.

In his third season he had a passer rating of near 90 and a 3/1 TD/INT ratio. Having watched every game, I can tell you the low INT total was not a matter of defender dropping balls. Byron threw very few dangerous passes last season. If Carson and Ben were not going nuts as young QBs right now Leftwich's numbers would be very impressive. But the interesting part to me is that he's improved every year. Beyond that, his last 5 games last season were easily his best set of games for his career. If that pattern holds and he can stay healthy he could have a very productive season.

In dynasty, even with Carson and Ben, I don't think there are a handful of young QBs with equal potential. In redrafts, he's a guy that should put up at least solid numbers and certainly has top 10 potential. Not bad for a guy going in double digit rounds in most drafts I've seen.

16 games

24 TDs

8 INTs

3,400 yards

 

[FatRader]

Leftwich falls into the "game manager" QB category as Jax will leave it up to the defense and the running game to produce wins. If healthy look for his stat line to come in around 200yds, 1-2TDs a game. Not exactly numbers you want to see out of your #1 Fantasy QB.

I'm not too considered with the loss of J. Smith hurthing Leftwich. I think Jones is ready to step into the #1 role, especially at the goal line.

Pass Yds: 3280

Pass TDs: 26

Int: 10

Rush Yds: 80

Rush TD: 1

 

[Wadsworth]

Leftwich falls into the "game manager" QB category as Jax will leave it up to the defense and the running game to produce wins. If healthy look for his stat line to come in around 200yds, 1-2TDs a game. Not exactly numbers you want to see out of your #1 Fantasy QB.

I'm not too considered with the loss of J. Smith hurthing Leftwich. I think Jones is ready to step into the #1 role, especially at the goal line.

Pass Yds: 3280

Pass TDs: 26

Int: 10

Rush Yds: 80

Rush TD: 1

I think those numbers are realistic, but would add that based on last season's QB numbers, Leftwich would be a very solid fantasy starter with those numbers. Only 2 QBs had more than 26 TDs last season(and one of them is injured) and only 9 had more than 20 TDs. With him going around the 16th-20th QB in most drafts, sounds like a bargin.

 

[perry147]

I have watched Leftwich in a few games last season but I am no expert on him but from what I have seen he seems to throw the ball none to accurately to his WR, he has impressive arm strength but a slow release and holds the ball too low. His throwing mechanics are not the best and it looks like he works best when he is not being pressured.

 

[shadyridr]

Leftwich falls into the "game manager" QB category as Jax will leave it up to the defense and the running game to produce wins. If healthy look for his stat line to come in around 200yds, 1-2TDs a game. Not exactly numbers you want to see out of your #1 Fantasy QB.

I'm not too considered with the loss of J. Smith hurthing Leftwich. I think Jones is ready to step into the #1 role, especially at the goal line.

Pass Yds: 3280

Pass TDs: 26

Int: 10

Rush Yds: 80

Rush TD: 1

26 TDs for a "game manager"?

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

Just adding a link to a new article about a recently slimmed-down Leftwich.

Jags.com

 

[LHUCKS]

I have tempered enthusiasm with the loss of Jimmy:

Pass Yds: 3450

Pass TDs: 24

Int: 12

Rush Yds: 100

Rush TD: 1

 

[MLBrandow]

I have tempered enthusiasm with the loss of Jimmy:

Pass Yds: 3450

Pass TDs: 24

Int: 12

Rush Yds: 100

Rush TD: 1

Agree with this. Those, in fact, are about his numbers scaled from last year.2105/10*16 = 3368yds

15/10*16 = 24TD

5/10*16 = 8INT

67/10*16=107ruyds

2/10*16=3ruTD

Now, not that this has anything to do with Leftwich's projections, but you will notice one player and season those numbers correspond to pretty nicely.

Steve McNair                 +---------------------------------+-----------------+                 |             Passing              |     Rushing     |+----------+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year  TM |  Comp   Att   PCT    YD   Y/A  TD INT |  Att  Yards  TD |+----------+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 2003 ten |   250   400  62.5  3215   8.0  24   7 |    38   138   4 |+----------+---------------------------------------+-----------------+That was his MVP season.That said, I like Leftwich for about what LHUCKS has him for.

3500/25/10, 140/3

 

[ImTheScientist]

I have tempered enthusiasm with the loss of Jimmy:

Pass Yds: 3450

Pass TDs: 24

Int: 12

Rush Yds: 100

Rush TD: 1

Agree with this. Those, in fact, are about his numbers scaled from last year.2105/10*16 = 3368yds

15/10*16 = 24TD

5/10*16 = 8INT

67/10*16=107ruyds

2/10*16=3ruTD

Now, not that this has anything to do with Leftwich's projections, but you will notice one player and season those numbers correspond to pretty nicely.

Steve McNair                 +---------------------------------+-----------------+                 |             Passing              |     Rushing     |+----------+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year  TM |  Comp   Att   PCT    YD   Y/A  TD INT |  Att  Yards  TD |+----------+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 2003 ten |   250   400  62.5  3215   8.0  24   7 |    38   138   4 |+----------+---------------------------------------+-----------------+That was his MVP season.That said, I like Leftwich for about what LHUCKS has him for.

3500/25/10, 140/3

How do you see those yardage totals and TD totals being distributed through the offense? WR/TE/RB ? Just wondering?

 

[diesel7982]

I have tempered enthusiasm with the loss of Jimmy:

Pass Yds: 3450

Pass TDs: 24

Int: 12

Rush Yds: 100

Rush TD: 1

Agree with this. Those, in fact, are about his numbers scaled from last year.2105/10*16 = 3368yds

15/10*16 = 24TD

5/10*16 = 8INT

67/10*16=107ruyds

2/10*16=3ruTD

Now, not that this has anything to do with Leftwich's projections, but you will notice one player and season those numbers correspond to pretty nicely.

Steve McNair                 +---------------------------------+-----------------+                 |             Passing              |     Rushing     |+----------+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year  TM |  Comp   Att   PCT    YD   Y/A  TD INT |  Att  Yards  TD |+----------+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 2003 ten |   250   400  62.5  3215   8.0  24   7 |    38   138   4 |+----------+---------------------------------------+-----------------+That was his MVP season.That said, I like Leftwich for about what LHUCKS has him for.

3500/25/10, 140/3

Just to be clear here, McNair also missed 2 games during that season, and missed 3 quarters of another.If you are projecting Lefty's numbers over 16 games, those numbers are not similar.

 

[MLBrandow]

How do you see those yardage totals and TD totals being distributed through the offense? WR/TE/RB ? Just wondering?

Matt Jones - 950/7Reggie Williams - 800/3

Ernest Wilford - 550/7

Marcedes Lewis - 400/5

Maurice Drew - 300/2

Others - 500/1

maybe something like that. A WR2 and three WR3s with a third down back.

 

[radballs]

Leftwich Trim, Slim, And Ready To Go

 

[ImTheScientist]

How do you see those yardage totals and TD totals being distributed through the offense? WR/TE/RB ? Just wondering?

Matt Jones - 950/7Reggie Williams - 800/3

Ernest Wilford - 550/7

Marcedes Lewis - 400/5

Maurice Drew - 300/2

Others - 500/1

maybe something like that. A WR2 and three WR3s with a third down back.

Reggie Williams can be had very late in all drafts, could be a steal.

 

[MLBrandow]

Leftwich Trim, Slim, And Ready To Go

The Jaguars quarterback is one of many players who profess to be in exceptional physical condition. Veteran running back Fred Taylor has also said he's in the best condition of his life.Interesting.

I actually picked JAX over IND originally, but with three new faces in the starting lineup, and potentially a fourth in Maurice Drew, I was a bit reserved.

This team will be one to watch closely in TC.

 

[LHUCKS]

How do you see those yardage totals and TD totals being distributed through the offense? WR/TE/RB ? Just wondering?

Matt Jones - 950/7Reggie Williams - 800/3

Ernest Wilford - 550/7

Marcedes Lewis - 400/5

Maurice Drew - 300/2

Others - 500/1

maybe something like that. A WR2 and three WR3s with a third down back.

Reggie Williams can be had very late in all drafts, could be a steal.

sounds familiar

 

[MLBrandow]

sounds familiar

Yeah, I've been saying it all offseason... ever since my annual WR critique came out.

 

[nygiants56]

I have tempered enthusiasm with the loss of Jimmy:

Pass Yds: 3450

Pass TDs: 24

Int: 12

Rush Yds: 100

Rush TD: 1

lofty TD expectations! I'll take 24 from him, I have Matt Jones..these #'s aren't that far off from Delhomme's stats...

I'd put Lefty around Mark Brunell's range, say, 20-21 tds, 3300, 14-15 ints...

 

[LHUCKS]

I have tempered enthusiasm with the loss of Jimmy:

Pass Yds: 3450

Pass TDs: 24

Int: 12

Rush Yds: 100

Rush TD: 1

lofty TD expectations! I'll take 24 from him, I have Matt Jones..these #'s aren't that far off from Delhomme's stats...

I'd put Lefty around Mark Brunell's range, say, 20-21 tds, 3300, 14-15 ints...

A) leftwich is progressingB) I like the young WR group

C) I expect increased productivity due to a more balanced attack with a healthy Taylor and explosive Drew on 3rd downs.

If the WRs step up to the plate Lefty can blow my projections out of the water.

 

[LHUCKS]

sounds familiar

Yeah, I've been saying it all offseason... ever since my annual WR critique came out.

LINK?

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

Leftwich Trim, Slim, And Ready To Go

Post #18.

 

[matt jones]

3,300 yards, 22 TD's 9 INT's

 

[Jiggyonthehut]

Leftwich Trim, Slim, And Ready To Go

Post #18.

Im wondering if there exists any correlation between throwing motion and dropped weight. This aside, he will be more nimble in the pocket but the big knock on him is how long he takes to release the ball. Hopefully this helps and he can avoid some hits.