Prediction: 126 Receptions 2075 Receiving Yards, 14 TD’s. 2 Rushes 12 Rushing Yards.
I have been reading your projections for years and I always love the thought process that goes into your projections, agree or disagree I usually come away from it with a perspective I did not have before and I learn something. Thanks for that.
Overall I consider your projections to usually be on the more conservative side of things, which is what makes this projection so amazing to me in that context.
The Lions are a team who are stumping me somewhat and I have not made up my mind on if they will run the ball significantly more in 2013 than they have been in recent years. At the same time the blueprint is most obviously to get Calvin the ball as the best option any down or distance. I think the lower percentage of targets seen with Calvin earlier in the season has to do with the very heavy defensive attention that he gets forcing Stafford to take what the defense gives him.
My main concern for the Lions passing offense is their offensive line. 2012 1st round pick Riley Reiff did play LT briefly last season but for the most part they had to use him as a TE to get him on the field. Both of their starting tackles last season are gone and the only player they added through the draft was Larry Warford who may turn out to be their best offensive lineman in time but he is a guard and more of a run blocker than a pass blocker this early in his career.
Stafford is not a very mobile QB but he has managed to stay out of giving up a lot of sacks, which is impressive when one considers the high volume of pass attempts. Stafford was only sacked on 3.8% of his attempts last season. This was 5.2% in 2011.
I think they have some issues with their outside protection and this will cause Pettigrew to continue to be used to help shore that up, and likely more frequently than he was used for this in 2012 due to the 2 new tackles. I think Stafford is increased risk of injury in 2013 because of this. I also think keeping Pettigrew in as a blocker more often and the strength of the Oline personnel being better suited to running the ball, that they may try to run a bit more in 2013 as ways of working through this.
I still expect the passing attempts to be on the high end compared to most teams, but if the Lions can put together a RBBC with Reggie Bush, Leshoure, Bell they might run the ball over 400 times again like they did in 2010. Maybe even run the ball somewhere between the 400-450 if it is working well? I think still likely closer to 400 than 450 for rushing attempts.
The passing attempts for Stafford have been 663 (2011) and 727 the past 2 years with him healthy. To me that is nutz and part of why I am having a hard time projecting for them because these numbers scream outliers to me but then again Calvin is quite an outlier himself.
About the only way I see the passing attempts coming down below 600 is if they do run the ball more than they have in recent years. That would mean the Lions do increase rushing attempts more towards 450 for me to see the passing attempts going below 600.
So for passing attempts I am expecting 560-640 range and Calvin should be getting 25-35% of those targets as the main weapon of the offense. That would be 140-160 targets on the low end, 196-224 targets on the high end. Using the high of the low and the low of the high that would be 160-196 targets in play or something around 180 targets of the median range to expect.
With Calvin and Stafford healthy Calvin has had 158 targets 96 catches and 204 targets 122 catches the past 2 seasons. This is pretty much 60% catch rate.
Calvin Johnson 2013 84-118 receptions1352-1893 yards 8-16TD if both he and Stafford are healthy. Backup QB Hill has shown he can do pretty well and Calvin will still get his even if Stafford misses time. However the passing attempts may come down quite a bit. So that would be my main concern. For those looking for a median of that it would be 101 catches 1622 yards 12 TD.
eta - I noticed the Lions running Calvin out of the slot more frequently last season and that is something that concerned me, as they were setting Calvin up to take some pretty big hits at times. Bush likely will take some of those slots looks away, not that I think it will impact Calvin's targets much, just a further observation. Also fixed my high/low math oops. I do still see upside for 2k receiving yards as a possibility though.
Stuff from March on the Oline:
http://www.detroitlions.com/news/lions-insider/article-1/Jim-Schwartz-Martin-Mayhew-not-concerned-with-inexperience-along-offensive-line/95049e78-16e0-433b-8dad-795a43df08cb
Jim Schwartz and Martin Mayhew are confident in the offensive linemen they've acquired and developed can step in to starting roles this year
PHOENIX -- Speaking with beat writers Monday at the NFL League Meetings, Detroit Lions general managerMartin Mayhew said his love for receivers in the draft is not exclusive.
"It's an interesting angle that we love receivers and we draft so many receivers, and we drafted four receivers over the last four years, but did you know we drafted four offensive tackles over the last four years, too," he said with a smile. "I think we've been making investments in that position over a period of time and we'll probably continue to do that."
The Lions have spent resources along the offensive line, and - who knows - maybe more are to come with the No. 5-overall pick in next month's NFL Draft. But the team is expecting two recent draft picks -- Riley Reiff (first-round pick in 2012) and Jason Fox (fourth-round pick in 2010) -- to compete for starting roles this season withJeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus no longer in the fold.
Corey Hilliard, whom the team signed off the Browns' practice squad in 2009 and whom they've developed over the last four seasons and signed to a two-year deal this offseason, will be in the mix, too.
Those three players only have a combined six NFL starts between them, but Detroit Lions head coach Jim Schwartz doesn't seem concerned.
"Our offensive line stayed healthy (last season) other than that one game Jeff Backus missed (Thanksgiving), so the depth that we had there was never really tested and we never got a chance for those guys to show what they can do," Schwartz told reporters over breakfast Wednesday.
"There's a reason we brought those guys back, and even though we would have liked to have Gosder back, we were prepared for his departure and prepared for Jeff Backus' retirement with the work we've done over the last couple years."
Schwartz reiterated that Reiff can play both tackle and guard and that it's yet to be determined which one he'll play. Expect him to start somewhere in 2013, and, as of right now, that looks to be at left tackle.
Fox missed most of his first two seasons because of knee and foot injuries and Hilliard was inactive for all 16 games last season. Still, Schwartz feels those players are ready to step in.
"I have confidence in them," Schwartz said. "That's why we go through training camp and everything else to get them ready.
"Jason Fox cleared, I think, a big hurdle last year when he was able to stay healthy the full year. Now, he didn't play, but he stayed healthy through practices and made good progress that way.
"Corey Hilliard is another guy that we really didn't need. We have confidence in the guys that are there that we've worked hard to develop. We've been comfortable with all those guys."
That certainly doesn't mean the Lions aren't open to the possibility of adding to that group, especially if one of the top tackles in next month's draft is available at No. 5, but the Lions feel Reiff, Fox and Hilliard are ready for their time in the spotlight if it shakes out that way.
"We really like Jason," Mayhew said. "Obviously, he has been injured, but when he's been healthy, he's given us a lot to be optimistic about.
"Then Corey has played and spot-played for us the last couple of years and looked good on tape. We're excited about those guys."
http://www.detroitlions.com/news/lions-insider/article-1/The-2013-season-will-be-indoctrination-by-fire-for-the-offensive-tackles-that-win-starting-spots/4a009642-9681-4dd3-9bb3-d886bfe8f1cf
Within the NFC North, the Lions offensive tackles will face some of the NFL's best edge rushers twice in 2013The Detroit Lions have a lot of confidence that second-year left tackle Riley Reiff can step in for retired veteran Jeff Backus and protect quarterbackMatthew Stafford's blind side in 2013."When we drafted him, the reason we drafted him is we thought he was a long term left tackle," Lions head coach Jim Schwartz said of Reiff last month.
"Whether he can hold that position, whether he can be productive for us there, that will be determined, again, training camp and preseason games and things like that. That's where he's going to settle in."
The Lions seem to have the same kind of confidence on the right side with whomever wins the competition for that starting job between Jason Fox and Corey Hilliard.
"Guys like Riley Reiff or Jason Fox or Corey Hilliard, those guys have been around here for a few years now," Schwartz said. "They've been through a lot of training camps and things like that. So, it's not like we're really working a lot of new guys in there."
There will be at least three new starters on the offensive line this year after the departure of Backus (retirement), tackle Gosder Cherilus (free agency) and guard Stephen Peterman (release). How good the offensive line can be and how soon they can mesh together as starters is one of the really big question marks remaining on a Lions roster that might be its most talented in more than a decade.
Last season, the offensive line allowed just 29 sacks, which were the ninth fewest of 32 teams. The NFL average a season ago was 37 sacks allowed and 35 among the 12 playoff teams.
The Lions will find out starting Week 1 vs. Jared Allen and the Vikings how good their new tackles can be. In fact, 2013 will be indoctrination by fire for Reiff, Fox, or whomever else might win the tackle spots.
The Lions faced five of the league's top 13 sack leaders last year. Among those, they'll see Allen (12.0), Green Bay's Clay Matthews (13.0) and Chicago's Julius Peppers (11.5) twice.
The Lions are looking for a smooth transition from the old guard to the new upfront. How smoothly that goes will be a big factor in how good the Lions will be on offense this year.
Edge pass-rushers on the Lions' 2013 schedule
1, 17 Jared Allen Vikings 12 117.0
4, 10 Julius Peppers Bears 11.5 111.5
5/13 Clay Matthews Packers 13 42.5
7 Michael Johnson Bengals 11.5 23.0
8 DeMarcus Ware Cowboys 11.5 111.0
15 Terrell Suggs Ravens 2* 84.5
16 Jason Pierre-Paul Giants 6.5 27.5
