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Player Spotlight: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers

Player Page Link: Cam Newton Player Page

Each article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
  • FBG Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
What is it that you look for in a QB? Do you want to QB who consistently puts up big numbers with perhaps an off game here or there? Or do you want someone that has the potential to put up HUGE numbers but is prone to subpar stretches and hope that he can find a way to become more consistent.

2012 served as a bit of a wake-up call to Newton. The NFL simply wasn’t going to be as easy as he thought. Sure, he wound up putting up good numbers but all the accolades and praise he received during his rookie year when he took the year by storm…that was replaced by questions around his on-field and sideline demeanor, his post-game press conference melodramas, and lastly some of his self-promotional tendencies in situations where it might not be warranted (Superman TD celebration when being blown out, anyone?). But by seasons end, Newton had handled the storm and put together probably the best play of his 2 season career. The Panthers finished on a 5-1 tear at the end of the 2012 season. It allowed the Panthers to somewhat wash away the stench of a 2-8 start to their season which started with SuperBowl hopes ad dreams (get it!? AD!!!).

Can he build on it?

Through Week 9 of the 2012 season, Newton wasn’t performing as a QB1. He was languishing in QB2 territory. But come Week 10, from then on, Newton performed as the 4th best QB in FF (CAVEAT: taking numbers from my league which has some different scoring methods but should map closely enough to standard leagues) and wound up finishing a respectable 8th overall. But in the new NFL where 400 yard seasons are routine, it provided a bit of a lesson for what should be valued at the QB position if you are going to wind up taking one high (which Newton was). Consistency.

Newton was drafted as QB5 last year (behind Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Ryan) and is currently slotted there again this year (with Peyton surpassing Ryan who comes in at QB6 at the moment). In a draft class of QB’s that runs 12 deep though, QB1 this year (unlike last year which were really only 6-7 deep), it seems that the risk you take with Newton is even greater this year because why draft Cam when you can draft Luck or Romo 3 rounds later…? We know now that he can be incredibly streaky for stretches lasting weeks. All of the QB’s before and a couple behind now seem to be more consistent week-to-week performers. If we are evaluating the Top 12 QB’s they seem to be:

Rodgers
Brees
Peyton
Brady
Newton
Ryan
Kaepernick
Stafford
RGIII
Luck
Wilson
Romo


I’ll put out a simple question. What makes Newton better option than Luck? Consider…if you combine Newton’s pass & rush attempts in 2012, he came in 15 fewer than Luck’s pass attempts. Luck added 62 rushes. And he didn’t have too much of an advantage on rushing scores either (8 to 5). It seems like the delta between Newton/Luck should be lower than 2+ rounds.

When you look at all the QB1’s this year, it seems like all will be productive. Obviously some more than others, but draft position will sort out the ones producing elite numbers versus the ones producing very good ones. But trading QB’s will be hard this year because the palatable options seem so plentiful. Even the back-ups seem deep (Eli, Big Ben,Schuab, Dalton, Flacco, Bradford). For me, I think the differential between the QB1’s is going to be consistentcy. With QB’s putting up big numbers, the stretches where one slumps is going to feel that much more pronounced. So Cam to me feels more like he should be the 8th or 9th QB off the board. If you want to bet on the come with Cam that he’ll turn into QB2-3, you can, but his upside has already been built into his draft position and he's not proven yet that he can avoid the bad month.

Prediction: 296 Completions 501 Attempts 3893 Passing Yards 22 TD’s 14 INT’s; 114 Rushes 621 Rushing Yards 9 TD’s.

 
What is it that you look for in a QB? Do you want to QB who consistently puts up big numbers with perhaps an off game here or there? Or do you want someone that has the potential to put up HUGE numbers but is prone to subpar stretches and hope that he can find a way to become more consistent.

2012 served as a bit of a wake-up call to Newton. The NFL simply wasn’t going to be as easy as he thought. Sure, he wound up putting up good numbers but all the accolades and praise he received during his rookie year when he took the year by storm…that was replaced by questions around his on-field and sideline demeanor, his post-game press conference melodramas, and lastly some of his self-promotional tendencies in situations where it might not be warranted (Superman TD celebration when being blown out, anyone?). But by seasons end, Newton had handled the storm and put together probably the best play of his 2 season career. The Panthers finished on a 5-1 tear at the end of the 2012 season. It allowed the Panthers to somewhat wash away the stench of a 2-8 start to their season which started with SuperBowl hopes ad dreams (get it!? AD!!!).

Can he build on it?

Through Week 9 of the 2012 season, Newton wasn’t performing as a QB1. He was languishing in QB2 territory. But come Week 10, from then on, Newton performed as the 4th best QB in FF (CAVEAT: taking numbers from my league which has some different scoring methods but should map closely enough to standard leagues) and wound up finishing a respectable 8th overall. But in the new NFL where 400 yard seasons are routine, it provided a bit of a lesson for what should be valued at the QB position if you are going to wind up taking one high (which Newton was). Consistency.

Newton was drafted as QB5 last year (behind Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Ryan) and is currently slotted there again this year (with Peyton surpassing Ryan who comes in at QB6 at the moment). In a draft class of QB’s that runs 12 deep though, QB1 this year (unlike last year which were really only 6-7 deep), it seems that the risk you take with Newton is even greater this year because why draft Cam when you can draft Luck or Romo 3 rounds later…? We know now that he can be incredibly streaky for stretches lasting weeks. All of the QB’s before and a couple behind now seem to be more consistent week-to-week performers. If we are evaluating the Top 12 QB’s they seem to be:

Rodgers

Brees

Peyton

Brady

Newton

Ryan

Kaepernick

Stafford

RGIII

Luck

Wilson

Romo

I’ll put out a simple question. What makes Newton better option than Luck? Consider…if you combine Newton’s pass & rush attempts in 2012, he came in 15 fewer than Luck’s pass attempts. Luck added 62 rushes. And he didn’t have too much of an advantage on rushing scores either (8 to 5). It seems like the delta between Newton/Luck should be lower than 2+ rounds.

When you look at all the QB1’s this year, it seems like all will be productive. Obviously some more than others, but draft position will sort out the ones producing elite numbers versus the ones producing very good ones. But trading QB’s will be hard this year because the palatable options seem so plentiful. Even the back-ups seem deep (Eli, Big Ben,Schuab, Dalton, Flacco, Bradford). For me, I think the differential between the QB1’s is going to be consistentcy. With QB’s putting up big numbers, the stretches where one slumps is going to feel that much more pronounced. So Cam to me feels more like he should be the 8th or 9th QB off the board. If you want to bet on the come with Cam that he’ll turn into QB2-3, you can, but his upside has already been built into his draft position and he's not proven yet that he can avoid the bad month.

Prediction: 296 Completions 501 Attempts 3893 Passing Yards 22 TD’s 14 INT’s; 114 Rushes 621 Rushing Yards 9 TD’s.
This is an excellent post. Sums up my thoughts.

Newton has been a headcase in the past....sulking when things don't go his way. He was better at the end of 2012, but the main question is......can he be consistent? I am willing to gamble on that being a "yes". Newton has top 2-3QB upside and you can get him at a slight discount from last year, since QBs are deep and you won't see a mad rush of QBs taken after the 1st 3 or so are off the board.

If you can get good consistency from RB and WR positions, then Newton is a player that can take you to a championship. Remember that CAR has to play NO and ATL 2x, and will need to score a lot of points to win. CAR D is still going to be a little suspect this year, so the ducks are in a row for Newton to have a big year.

Sure QBs like Ryan are going to be a little more consistent than Newton, but Ryan doesn't possess the upside that Newton has. Higher risk, higher reward.

3800 passing yards, 23 TD, 16 Int

700 rush yds, 8 TD

My projection is similar to TheDirtyWord.

 
Cam Newton is one of the few people who I could argue as being overdrafted or underdrafted at the same ADP, based solely on the particular league's scoring rules.


I've owned him in a 1pt-per-25-yard / 4pt-pass TD league two years running (har!), and he's carried me to two playoffs and a title despite Bradford-esque passing stats, solely by virtue of his legs. By the same token, in a pass-heavy scoring system, I could see taking at least 7 other QB's ahead of him, just because they'll throw 550, 600, 650 balls this coming season at a 63%+ CP clip, and Newton won't.

I have little doubt that Newton will mature further as a QB and a leader in 2013. With all the ups and downs his career has experienced already, it's easy to forget that he just turned 24 a month ago. His 2012 YPA of 8.0 is already bordering on elite. And while his receiving corps isn't exactly the envy of the Broncos or Packers, it's got a good mix of vets and youth, possession and speed, and could surprise a few people this year (I think both Olsen and Hixon will significantly outperform their current ADPs). But he could be a better QB in 2013 without being a better fantasy option - the Panthers have given every indication they'll continue to be a run-first team, and they face the league's toughest schedule this year. I don't see the Cats cracking the top 5 in total offense, and I think that's almost a pre-requisite for Cam to put up top-3 fantasy numbers.

In leagues where passing stats are devalued, I'll continue to seek him out in the QB5 range. Otherwise, he's in that "dead zone" between the elite QBs and the top QBBC candidates where his ADP is likely to represent fair value.

Projection: 308/505 comp/att, 3,930 yds (7.8 YPA), 23 TD / 15 INT; 115 rush, 635 yds, 6 TD
 
Put me in the camp of people who think he continues to regress slightly every season as the team around gets (in my opinion) worse and worse. I thought he'd regress a lot last year and he did and I'm still in that same opinion. That team needs a complete re-haul in terms of it's coaching staff and personel for him to really see success. If I can sit on my couch watching a Panther's game and call every play then I'm sure opposing coaches can as well. Maybe Mike Shula is the answer but I truthfully don't know enough about him to make that call. I know he was the Offensive Coordinator back when the Bucs were a decent team in the late 90s. But they weren't known for their offense back then so much as their defense.

2011: 310/517 60% Comp, 4,051 yards, 21 TDs, 17 INTs 125 Carries, 709 yards, 14 TDs 3 Fumbles

2012: 280/485 57.7% Comp, 3,869 yards, 19 TDs, 12 INTs 127 Carries, 748 yards, 8 TDs 2 Fumbles

2013 Prediction: 280/500 56%, 3,800 yards, 18 TDs, 16 INTs 125 Carries, 725 yards, 6 TDs 2 Fumbles

 
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Put me in the camp of people who think he continues to regress slightly every season as the team around gets (in my opinion) worse and worse. I thought he'd regress a lot last year and he did and I'm still in that same opinion. That team needs a complete re-haul in terms of it's coaching staff and personel for him to really see success. If I can sit on my couch watching a Panther's game and call every play then I'm sure opposing coaches can as well. Maybe Mike Shula is the answer but I truthfully don't know enough about him to make that call. I know he was the Offensive Coordinator back when the Bucs were a decent team in the late 90s. But they weren't known for their offense back then so much as their defense.

2011: 310/517 60% Comp, 4,051 yards, 21 TDs, 17 INTs 35 Carries, 260 yards, 14 TDs 3 Fumbles

2012: 280/485 57.7% Comp, 3,869 yards, 19 TDs, 12 INTs 36 Carries, 244 yards, 8 TDs 2 Fumbles

2013 Prediction: 280/500 56%, 3,800 yards, 18 TDs, 16 INTs 35 Carries, 250 yards, 6 TDs 2 Fumbles
where are you getting those rushing numbers, they are way off.

2011 - 125 carries, 709 yards, 14 TDs

2012 - 127 carries, 748 yards, 8 TD's

 
Put me in the camp of people who think he continues to regress slightly every season as the team around gets (in my opinion) worse and worse. I thought he'd regress a lot last year and he did and I'm still in that same opinion. That team needs a complete re-haul in terms of it's coaching staff and personel for him to really see success. If I can sit on my couch watching a Panther's game and call every play then I'm sure opposing coaches can as well. Maybe Mike Shula is the answer but I truthfully don't know enough about him to make that call. I know he was the Offensive Coordinator back when the Bucs were a decent team in the late 90s. But they weren't known for their offense back then so much as their defense.

2011: 310/517 60% Comp, 4,051 yards, 21 TDs, 17 INTs 35 Carries, 260 yards, 14 TDs 3 Fumbles

2012: 280/485 57.7% Comp, 3,869 yards, 19 TDs, 12 INTs 36 Carries, 244 yards, 8 TDs 2 Fumbles

2013 Prediction: 280/500 56%, 3,800 yards, 18 TDs, 16 INTs 35 Carries, 250 yards, 6 TDs 2 Fumbles
where are you getting those rushing numbers, they are way off.

2011 - 125 carries, 709 yards, 14 TDs

2012 - 127 carries, 748 yards, 8 TD's
That's 100% my bad, I thought they seemed WAY off but just went with it. I was reading the fields wrong on NFL.com cause I'm sitting half asleep at work, lol. I'll edit that to reflect the post properly.

 
As Mr .Irrelevant pointed out - I would be looking at your scoring heavily when it comes to Cam Newton. I don't even play in that sandbox when the league gives 6pts for Passing TD's + QB yardage bonus. I will let someone else take him. Especially now when the class just seems so deep.

I really think the pass attempts are going to go up some though. Tough Divvy and then there is this:

INDIANAPOLIS – Dave Gettleman, with his Boston accent, promises a taste of New York in Carolina.

The Carolina Panthers general manager, speaking Thursday at the NFL scouting combine, said he wants to see a downhill running game, a vertical offense and play-action passing -- a formula Eli Manning and the Giants used throughout Gettleman's front-office run in New York........... "Ten of the 12 teams in the playoffs this year had true pocket passers," Gettleman said. "At the end of the day, the quarterback has to make plays from the pocket. I think the read option is an option. But at the end of the day, your quarterback has got to make plays from the pocket, and if he can't, you're going to struggle."

"It's basically going to be similar to what we did in New York and I think that worked out pretty well," Gettleman said.

With Mike Shula being promoted to OC instead of going outside - they can still go read option at will but I believe Gettleman.

530 Pass Attempts

4095 Yards

23 Pass TD

14 INT

690 Rush Yards

7 Rush TD's.

That is a bump in pass attempts this year.

YPA staying the same

That is a reduction of run attempts (not a ton though)

That is a bump in his rush avg per attempt

I think 7 TD's is the floor

 
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Put me in the camp of people who think he continues to regress slightly every season as the team around gets (in my opinion) worse and worse. I thought he'd regress a lot last year and he did and I'm still in that same opinion. That team needs a complete re-haul in terms of it's coaching staff and personel for him to really see success. If I can sit on my couch watching a Panther's game and call every play then I'm sure opposing coaches can as well. Maybe Mike Shula is the answer but I truthfully don't know enough about him to make that call. I know he was the Offensive Coordinator back when the Bucs were a decent team in the late 90s. But they weren't known for their offense back then so much as their defense.

2011: 310/517 60% Comp, 4,051 yards, 21 TDs, 17 INTs 125 Carries, 709 yards, 14 TDs 3 Fumbles

2012: 280/485 57.7% Comp, 3,869 yards, 19 TDs, 12 INTs 127 Carries, 748 yards, 8 TDs 2 Fumbles

2013 Prediction: 280/500 56%, 3,800 yards, 18 TDs, 16 INTs 125 Carries, 725 yards, 6 TDs 2 Fumbles
I wasn't willing to pay the price for him last year and I won't this year, but I can't agree with the idea that he regressed a lot last year. In fact, he improved a lot of metrics. Despite his completion percentage dropping 2%, his YPA actually increased into the elite 8.0 ypc range. That means his yards per completion jumped from 13.0 to 13.8. When guys start going deeper, their completion percentage drops, so that seems pretty normal. His TD/att was roughly the same as last year, but he did improve on his TD/INT ratio. Rushing touchdowns are known to be flukey, and his did drop from his record setting year, but his yards per carry actually increased.

All in all, I think Newton is improving and I see no reason for that to stop. How he performs this year will depend on how they use him. If they open it up and have him throwing more, then he'll easily pass 4,000 yards. His #4 option, Smith, saw a strange decrease in TDs per rec last year. I think things just didn't fall their way.

The real unknown here is the switch to a new OC. They did promote from within, but that doesn't mean that they'll call the same plays or that they'll be as effective as last year. Given this, the high ADP, and the depth at fantasy QB, I'll be passing on Newton this year, but expect similar, if not better, numbers from the past two years.

500 att x 8.0 = 4,000 yds 23 TD 14 INT, 125 rushes, 700 yards, 8 TD

 
Is no one else very afraid of Mike Shula? He has proven to be able to #### up a wet dream as an OC and head coach. Yes, he has built a good working relationship with Cam - that ain't being the OC. I love Cam, I hate Shula. How do the homers feel?

 
Binky The Doormat said:
Is no one else very afraid of Mike Shula? He has proven to be able to #### up a wet dream as an OC and head coach. Yes, he has built a good working relationship with Cam - that ain't being the OC. I love Cam, I hate Shula. How do the homers feel?
He did well in Jacksonville as the QB coach and was even better in Carolina. I don't care about his performance as OC in 1999.

 
Binky The Doormat said:
Is no one else very afraid of Mike Shula? He has proven to be able to #### up a wet dream as an OC and head coach. Yes, he has built a good working relationship with Cam - that ain't being the OC. I love Cam, I hate Shula. How do the homers feel?
He did well in Jacksonville as the QB coach and was even better in Carolina. I don't care about his performance as OC in 1999.
I believe that he was greatly missed when he left Jax. Shula is an upgrade in my mind, at least for Cam fantasy wise.

 
Binky The Doormat said:
Is no one else very afraid of Mike Shula? He has proven to be able to #### up a wet dream as an OC and head coach. Yes, he has built a good working relationship with Cam - that ain't being the OC. I love Cam, I hate Shula. How do the homers feel?
He did well in Jacksonville as the QB coach and was even better in Carolina. I don't care about his performance as OC in 1999.
I believe that he was greatly missed when he left Jax. Shula is an upgrade in my mind, at least for Cam fantasy wise.
Thanks both you and Chase. Couple of questions - Wad, why is this an upgrade for the OC and Chase, where do you have Cam in QB rankings and is there a big drop off in value to him or below him?

 
I dont get the maturity talk. What does that have to do as a fantasy qb? His numbers now are off the charts and more than likely will be a flrst to early second round pick. I can see 3800 yards passing, 25 tds, 700 yards rushing and 7 td's as his absolute floor.

 
Binky The Doormat said:
Is no one else very afraid of Mike Shula? He has proven to be able to #### up a wet dream as an OC and head coach. Yes, he has built a good working relationship with Cam - that ain't being the OC. I love Cam, I hate Shula. How do the homers feel?
He did well in Jacksonville as the QB coach and was even better in Carolina. I don't care about his performance as OC in 1999.
I believe that he was greatly missed when he left Jax. Shula is an upgrade in my mind, at least for Cam fantasy wise.
Thanks both you and Chase. Couple of questions - Wad, why is this an upgrade for the OC and Chase, where do you have Cam in QB rankings and is there a big drop off in value to him or below him?
Honestly, I haven't given it much thought, because in every league I'm in I expect to wait until at least the 7th round, maybe much longer, to take a QB. I will take whoever is the 12th QB off the board and be happy.

 
Binky The Doormat said:
Is no one else very afraid of Mike Shula? He has proven to be able to #### up a wet dream as an OC and head coach. Yes, he has built a good working relationship with Cam - that ain't being the OC. I love Cam, I hate Shula. How do the homers feel?
He did well in Jacksonville as the QB coach and was even better in Carolina. I don't care about his performance as OC in 1999.
I believe that he was greatly missed when he left Jax. Shula is an upgrade in my mind, at least for Cam fantasy wise.
Thanks both you and Chase. Couple of questions - Wad, why is this an upgrade for the OC and Chase, where do you have Cam in QB rankings and is there a big drop off in value to him or below him?
I do not know if he will be an upgrade at OC, there is simply not enough of a track record to make an informed prediction. I think he will be an upgrade for Cam as I expect that Shula will put Cam is better situations. Shula's understanding of the QB position was very well thought of by locals with access to the situation. When he left the QB play took a turn for the worse.

 
I need to laugh at FBG rate my team advice. I have Cam Newton and they aren't enamored with that but in their advice they tell me to keep an eye out for Wilson and Luck from last year and Cam Newton from the year before? That's funny.

 

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