Player Spotlight: Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals

Player Page Link: Carson Palmer Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections
  

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
  

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Palmer will start most of the games as long as he is healthy in Arizona. Bruce Arians the new HC will surely make thing better. Still, Palmer is nothing more than a middle of the road guy at this point. A QB2 at best and possibly has some declining skills. This is not a path for success this year for most.

Palmer's record the last 3 seasons is 12-28 as a starting QB.

330/550, 3800 yds, 21 TD, 15 Int...Carson is not that mobile anymore so rush stats are moot here. I wouldn't be surprised if he got hurt behind this OL which despite the drafting of Cooper is not all that great.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Palmer will start most of the games as long as he is healthy in Arizona. Bruce Arians the new HC will surely make thing better. Still, Palmer is nothing more than a middle of the road guy at this point. A QB2 at best and possibly has some declining skills. This is not a path for success this year for most.

Palmer's record the last 3 seasons is 12-28 as a starting QB.

330/550, 3800 yds, 21 TD, 15 Int...Carson is not that mobile anymore so rush stats are moot here. I wouldn't be surprised if he got hurt behind this OL which despite the drafting of Cooper is not all that great.

I like Palmer as sneaky value in best-ball and/or deep roster leagues (he compiled the quietest 4,000-yard passing season in league history last year), but I won't be targeting him in any of my standard leagues for exactly that reason: even though I think he'll put up better per-game numbers than most other mid-range QB2's, I see little chance he plays out a full 16 games without injury. The Cards' O-line was the worst in football last year according to both FO and my own lyin' eyes, and they haven't taken giant steps since then to improve. Bad O-line + immobile QB = recipe for trouble.

I'm thinking something like: 12 GP, 270/440, 2940 yds, 19 TD/12 Int.

 

[Jason Wood]

I find myself aligned with MOP and Mr. Irrelevant. I think Palmer will be better for the fantasy fates of Larry Fitzgerald than he will for his fantasy owners, if that makes sense. To me, in an era where 4,000 yards passing is becoming a standard baseline for fantasy starters, I don't think Palmer offers much upside. I would be comfortable with him as my QB2 if I felt great about my QB1, but as of right now I don't see Palmer as a particularly great QBBC candidate, where I'm expecting to rely on him for a handful of games. I'm an Arians fan, but I have to wonder if last year's dream season in Indianapolis doesn't overstate his ability to change a franchise's fate. He'll improve the Cardinals, but I don't think it happens overnight. The best news for Palmer is he regains an elite #1 receiver and, while the pecking order beyond that is a bit nebulous, I personally think the trio of Floyd, Roberts and Swope could be quite effective with a strong armed downfield passer like Palmer.

 

[Tanner9919]

Palmer will start most of the games as long as he is healthy in Arizona. Bruce Arians the new HC will surely make thing better. Still, Palmer is nothing more than a middle of the road guy at this point. A QB2 at best and possibly has some declining skills. This is not a path for success this year for most.

Palmer's record the last 3 seasons is 12-28 as a starting QB.

330/550, 3800 yds, 21 TD, 15 Int...Carson is not that mobile anymore so rush stats are moot here. I wouldn't be surprised if he got hurt behind this OL which despite the drafting of Cooper is not all that great.

as posted in another thread, Palmer's stats from 2012 were great,considering who he played for:

22 Touchdowns - 14 Interceptions4,018 Yards - 85.3 Quarterback Rating

61.1 comp %..

there's no evidence at all that his skills are diminishing..

look for 4200/28/15 from Palmer...solid numbers for a QB who will see a significant jump in Tds now that he's throwing to Fitz..

certified late round QB selection who will be gold compared to his ADP..

'can't miss' sleeper for 2013.

 

[Jason Wood]

I think people are too loosy goosy with their projections when I see Palmer being forecast for 24-28 TD passes. Let's remember that only 5 quarterbacks last year (and on average in the last ten years) have thrown 30+ TDs per season, and just 10 QBs, on average, throw for 25+. Given the Cardinals line and their lack of dynamic options outside of Fitzgerald, I think projecting 25+ TDs would be at best aggressive, at worst foolish.

 

[Dolt_Cretin]

1) Palmer was constantly playing from behind last year, with a running game that was not considered to be a serious threat. I would argue that this has the exact same effect as having a bad offensive line in front of you...and the Raiders line did not perform well at the best of times.

2) Palmer has actually stayed quite healthy, outside of his ACL tear in the mid 2000's. He's proven to be fairly durable.

3) He will have weapons in ARI - Fitz, Floyd, Roberts, Housler - and a running game that should at least keep defenses honest. Mendenhall is no prize, but he should be healthy and Ryan Willimas and the two rookies will be waiting in the wings if he should falter.

4) Bruce Arians is an upgrade in terms of an offensive mind - he will find ways to get the ball to his playmakers and to protect Palmer at least a bit better than last season's debacle. And you know he wants to throw the ball! They did add one high quality guard in the draft and will be returning some injured players. Another chance to improve.

5) That defense was actually quite good last year. They may fall off without their co-ordinator, but the talent is still there (for the most part). And they have a good return game as well. All improvements for Palmer over his situation with the Raiders.

6) Palmer finished as QB16 last year, even with a late season fade as the rest of the Raiders basically quit on their season.

High end #2 QB, with upside capped to a low end starter. Let's call it 4,200/27/13

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Palmer will start most of the games as long as he is healthy in Arizona. Bruce Arians the new HC will surely make thing better. Still, Palmer is nothing more than a middle of the road guy at this point. A QB2 at best and possibly has some declining skills. This is not a path for success this year for most.

Palmer's record the last 3 seasons is 12-28 as a starting QB.

330/550, 3800 yds, 21 TD, 15 Int...Carson is not that mobile anymore so rush stats are moot here. I wouldn't be surprised if he got hurt behind this OL which despite the drafting of Cooper is not all that great.

as posted in another thread, Palmer's stats from 2012 were great,considering who he played for:

22 Touchdowns - 14 Interceptions4,018 Yards - 85.3 Quarterback Rating

61.1 comp %..

there's no evidence at all that his skills are diminishing..

look for 4200/28/15 from Palmer...solid numbers for a QB who will see a significant jump in Tds now that he's throwing to Fitz..

certified late round QB selection who will be gold compared to his ADP..

'can't miss' sleeper for 2013.

I respectfully disagree and when you look at Palmer's numbers week by week they are not impressive. In a 6 point pass TD league he has a lot of 20-24 point performances, the problem is he is losing about 10-15 points a week to the top 5-6 QBs which are going to be sprinkled on the opposing teams in redraft. Then he has a few weeks where he scrapes 9-10 points and those weeks you are really getting hosed. Very few weeks is he going to propel you to a victory. Gold? Fool's gold IMO Tanner but I think as always you have great stats with you. 4,000 yds in the current NFL is pretty avg. I do like that he has Fitz and others there but the OL is far from fixed, they play Sea/SF/St L twice each and those teams are all on the up tick. If you draft one fo the top tier QBs, wait until forever and grab Palmer, if that is what we are saying I'm fine but as part of a 2 QB tandem with say someone like Jay Cutler...good luck with that.

 

[Young 8]

3500 yds

22 td

25 int

replaced after week 14

 

[Jason Wood]

Can we stop referring to Housler as a "weapon?" I think he's got a chance at being a serviceable pass catching TE, but he's a long way off from being a plus difference maker.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I think people are jumping the gun with Bruce Arians being some kind of big upgrade also. He's a good solid offensive coach, sure. But so was Ken Whisenhunt. As a Steelers' homer I've seen plenty of both guys, and neither one is an Andy Reid / Mike Shanahan offensive guru type miracle worker. They're both in the same tier of good, competent, professional offensive coaches -- I agree that Palmer is a slight upgrade, and the o-line additions should help once they get up to speed, but this looks like a multiyear project to me. A lot of people being way too optimistic on AZ in general IMO.

 

[Eminence]

New Quarterback, new Head Coach, new GM, new regime, new schemes....The Cardinals could be playing a lot of catch-up and decent defensive efforts could leave the Cardinals winding up 7 - 9 under Palmer. They'll fall behind and Palmer will have to swing them deep, luckily Larry Fitzgerald is a pretty good receiver.Floyd could produce too, camp reports show him getting reps over Andre Roberts. New regime sees his talent, too apparently (over Roberts at, least). But Roberts is perfect for the slot in my opinion and can produce there. Actually, Larry Fitzgerald has also been lining up in the slot, similar to Reggie Wayne last-year.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Palmer is a bit of enigma heading into 2013 with a new team, new system, new coordinator, upgraded weapons at the skill positions. There is a lot to be excited about in terms of potential for fantasy production. He can still throw the ball well downfield and stretch defenses, and coupled with Bruce Arians, this seems like a good fit for Palmer.

He threw for 4000 yards, 22 TD’s, 14 Int’s last year in basically just over 14 games, until he got his ribs bashed taking one too many hits in the pocket trying to make a play. That play tells you a little about his drive and determination. Though off the field he looks like he shirks responsibility, on the field he gives everything he’s got. A lot of Raider fans are bitter about him and are saying good riddance, but I think he turned in a remarkable performance considering the lack of talent around him. I’m hoping he does well in Arizona. But I just don’t see it.

It’s the offensive line that has me concerned for Palmer in 2013. The Raiders offensive line allowed just 27 sacks last year to the Cardinals 57 sacks allowed. Keep in mind Palmer’s last play as a Raider was one of those 27 sacks. I know the Arizona beat writers are optimistic of the return of Levi Brown and rookie guard Jonathan Cooper should help. But the sacks will always be on the high side in Arizona just based on the division they play in. The NFC West is the new black n blue division, and you can bet that when the Cardinals get behind, teams will be pinning the ears back to get at Palmer. Says here that if Palmer got sent to the IR on his 27th sack, and the Cardinals allow 57 sacks a year, just do the math…Palmer isn’t going to last the full 16 games.

He still should make plenty of noise in the games he does play, as he’ll once again compile garbage time stats with a better offensive coordinator and better skill positions around him. I just don’t see him lasting past the 7th or 8th game. He’ll be a solid PPG fantasy QB in the games he does play. Draftable only in start 2QB leagues. I will not draft him even as my QB2, as there are more reliable options to hang on to through the bye weeks.

1800 yards passing, 13 TD’s, 11 INT’s, season ending IR

 

[fightingillini]

Palmer is an interesting Spotlight this year. He's going to be throwing to Larry Fitzgerald....by far the most talented WR Palmer has had. Andre Roberts is a decent 2 and Michael Floyd should be a decent 3. AZ has two decent backs in Mendenhall and Ryan Williams. The big question is.....can Palmer survive 16 weeks behind AZ's line? My guess is AZ will try and be balanced on offense, so I can see decent but not great numbers. Should be decent #2QB, but I would rather select a QB with higher upside like Sam Bradford or Josh Freeman or Jay Cutler, guys that will be drafted in the range of Palmer. I can't see Palmer slinging it all over the field like he did in OAK, where he put up good numbers but those numbers were inflated by the amount of attempts.

3700 pass yds, 21 TD, 14 Int

75 rush yds, 1 TD

 

[Biabreakable]

I have some of the same concerns about the pass protection expressed by Raidersfan. I worry about Palmer staying healthy if he takes frequent hits that Cardinals QBs have been dealing with recently.

Cardinals 2010 50sk 8.2sk%
2011 54sk 8.9sk%
2012 58sk 8.7sk%

3yravg 54sk 8.6sk%

Here are the last 3 seasons of Arians as OC and how many hits his QBs took-

Colts 2012 41sk 6.1sk%
Steelers 2011 42sk 7.2sk%
Steelers 2010 43sk 8.2sk%

3yravg 42sk 7.2sk%

Please note that these are mobile QBs Luck and Big Ben doing most of the work here. Both are much more mobile than Palmer is. Palmer does have a quick release though. He is going to need it.

36 sacks is the most Palmer has ever taken. That was in his 3rd season. Career average 4.7 Sk% the last 3 seasons this has been 4.5 sk%

When I factor all 3 of these considerations together I get 6.75 sack percentage expected. Levi Brown and Cooper should be an improvement over last season which could take this number down a bit closer to Palmers career numbers. If it doesn't prepare for seeing how good Stanton can be in this offense.

540-610pa 330-390com 3800-4400yds 20-27Td if healthy 16 games.

 

[amicsta]

Just to chime in briefly here, while palmer has some obvious negatives that have been stated, doesnt the scheme hes in and the weapons he has (fitz obviously, but even floyd roberts and swope seem like great fits for arians) make you feel like hes bound to have a few big games at least? For what youll be getting him as (qb2, maybe even a guy in a 3 way qbbc this year) i feel like that "pop" potential in any single game has value. The game is played, after all, week to week. The final statline wont tell the whole story with palmer this season.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Seems like a decent guy to have as a high upside backup.

 

[QuizGuy66]

I think I'm too biased to include projections. I expect QuitGuy3 to get like 23 TDs and 75 INTs

Seriously, though, while an upgrade over what they had at QB last year, this is a guy who historically does not do well when faced with a ton of pressure from the D-line. That you have two top-line Super Bowl contenders in the division seems to be a formula for a lot of sacks or a lot of forced passes that lead to INTs. The more that INTs count, the worse his value will be. He's sure to be coming from behind a lot, it's true, but that's just going to lead to him getting teed off on. The fact that he's completely immobile exascerbates things as well.

Basically a decent backup QB in leagues that offer minimal or no penalty for interceptions. A lesses back-up option in those that do.

-QG