Player Spotlight: Carson Palmer (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

Player Page Link: Carson Palmer Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Henry going down hurts a little. They drafted a RB in the 2nd round, maybe they want to pound the ball more.

4,000 yds and 25-30 TD...that is what Palmer is capable of.

 

[kurtrudder]

I think Palmer will better his 2005 form. This is a young QB who even while recovering from a serious knee injury in 2006 was capable of putting up 4000 yrds, 26 TD's. Even without Chris Henry, last years stats are certainly his floor.

I believe with an aging defense in Cincy, there will be more opportunities for blowouts and Palmer and their juggernaut of offensive weapons will take advantage. I have no doubt he will be the No.1 QB in 2007

I see 4200 yds, 35 TD's/15 INT's,

 

[shadyridr]

A year removed from his injury, Palmer should be a flat out stud this year. Especially with Cincys porous defense.

4200 pass yds, 28 tds, 14 ints, rush yds neg

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

4200 pass yds, 30 TD, 13 INT.

 

[Jason Wood]

Palmer seems to be comfortably in that zone of QB2-QB4, someone fantasy leaguers will draft in the first three or four rounds in virtually all redraft leagues.

While I understand the temptation to project yet another stellar season, I would be curious to hear what people think about:

1) The Bengals offensive line shuffle -- This is the first time in his career Palmer won't have the same O-line protecting him

2) Secondary receiving options -- It's very rare for a team to rank among the league's top 5 passing attacks based on the prowess of only two receivers. Last year, the Bengals were 7th with 4,066 yards and were a byproduct of Housh and Chad Johnson almost exclusively. Chris Henry caught 36 passes, no other receiver caught more than 9 passes. With Henry gone, can Tab Perry and Glenn Holt contribute?

 

[BGP]

Carson Palmer is, quite obviously, the best QB in the AFC North, and may eventually prove to be the best QB in the NFL someday. He has put up some incredible numbers in his first three seasons. His first year was good for a new starter, with 18 TDs to 18 INTs, and 6.7 YPA. That's a high YPA for a rookie. Then he just exploded in year 2 with 32 TDs and 7.5 YPA. He suffers the knee injury, but fortunately the knee isn't nearly as big a factor for a QB than it is a RB or WR, so he posts 28 TDs and 7.8 YPA.

He's on an awesome trajectory. He should go down as the great QB in club history. And it must be sweet for their fans to have that guy still early in his career.

The loss of LG Eric Steinbech is a concern, but they did spend a second rounder in 2006 on Andrew Whitworth. After seeing him play in 2006 and coupled with the salary demands of Steinbach, the team was ready to let Steinbach go. There's that thing again about constantly taking OL high.

4000 yards, 32 TDs, 17 INTs.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Palmer seems to be comfortably in that zone of QB2-QB4, someone fantasy leaguers will draft in the first three or four rounds in virtually all redraft leagues.While I understand the temptation to project yet another stellar season, I would be curious to hear what people think about:1) The Bengals offensive line shuffle -- This is the first time in his career Palmer won't have the same O-line protecting him2) Secondary receiving options -- It's very rare for a team to rank among the league's top 5 passing attacks based on the prowess of only two receivers. Last year, the Bengals were 7th with 4,066 yards and were a byproduct of Housh and Chad Johnson almost exclusively. Chris Henry caught 36 passes, no other receiver caught more than 9 passes. With Henry gone, can Tab Perry and Glenn Holt contribute?

1/ There will really be only one major change from last year -- Andrew Whitworth for Eric Steinbach. Eric Ghaiciuc played 15 games last year for Rich Braham, missing one game to injury, and improved as the season went along. A second camp as the starting center should cement his status with Palmer. I'd be more worried about whether the lower leg injuries both Willie Anderson and Levi Jones struggled with last year will become chronic issues. The depth is okay and the first shuffle may not be too problematic, but any injury is going to hurt more than in previous seasons.2/ Tab Perry can definitely contribute if he's fully recovered. He's a different kind of player, though, more Kelley Washington than Chris Henry. Antonio Chatman or Bennie Brazell would be the stretch the field types and have similar question marks (age/injury with Chatman and youth/injury with Brazell). Definite issue here. I don't think it's an offense killer, but it could definitely be a high level stat killer for Palmer.

 

[Splat]

1) The Bengals offensive line shuffle -- This is the first time in his career Palmer won't have the same O-line protecting him2) Secondary receiving options -- It's very rare for a team to rank among the league's top 5 passing attacks based on the prowess of only two receivers. Last year, the Bengals were 7th with 4,066 yards and were a byproduct of Housh and Chad Johnson almost exclusively. Chris Henry caught 36 passes, no other receiver caught more than 9 passes. With Henry gone, can Tab Perry and Glenn Holt contribute?

1) The Bengals were absolutely plagued by injuries across the offensive line last year. Through 13 weeks last year, the Bengals had used 6 different lines, 8 different players, and the most weeks it had with the same line was 4. A lot of that did have to do with Steinbach being able to shift from LG to LT and Center, but a number of weeks were played with backups at LT and Center. The fact that Carson was still able to produce like that should say something. Even losing Steinbach and his flexibility, should injuries strike as hard as last year I don't think the effects will be any more damaging. Whitworth is able to slide to tackle if needed, and there's two backup Centers (Wilkerson and Stepanovich) that should be able to step in for Ghiacuic. I'm somewhat curious as to how the run game will be effected by going from Steinbach (smaller, but great in space on pulls), to Whitworth (less athlethic, but MASSIVE and a mauler).2) This is true. There's no knowing for sure how the team will do without Henry who is a HUGE red zone threat (TD every 4 catches last year). Tab Perry looked to be coming along good as a receiver last year before he got hurt, Antonio Chatman was productive in GB before he was hurt here, and Bennie Brazell had a ton of hype in camp before tearing his PCL in the preseason (on a TD catch if I recall). The Bengals have also never run a TE focused offense, preferring to use their tight ends as blockers. One major difference between 2006 and 2005 though was the loss of Chris Perry (again). In 2005 Perry had 51 catches, 3rd on the team. He was often used as an outlet/checkdown option for Carson if the recievers weren't open. Last year Carson struggled without that, especially early when he was still a little skittish on his knee. Since the Bengals acquired Irons in the draft, I'd hope they're able to use more pass options to the RB again this season, and that might help patch the hole for the 8 games that Henry's out.Predictions?3900 Yards, 34 TDs, 12 INTs.I fully expect the Bengals to have a top 10 special teams this year which will put a little bit of a damper on yardage.

 

[Jene Bramel]

1) The Bengals offensive line shuffle -- This is the first time in his career Palmer won't have the same O-line protecting him

2) Secondary receiving options -- It's very rare for a team to rank among the league's top 5 passing attacks based on the prowess of only two receivers. Last year, the Bengals were 7th with 4,066 yards and were a byproduct of Housh and Chad Johnson almost exclusively. Chris Henry caught 36 passes, no other receiver caught more than 9 passes. With Henry gone, can Tab Perry and Glenn Holt contribute?

1) The Bengals were absolutely plagued by injuries across the offensive line last year. Through 13 weeks last year, the Bengals had used 6 different lines, 8 different players, and the most weeks it had with the same line was 4. A lot of that did have to do with Steinbach being able to shift from LG to LT and Center, but a number of weeks were played with backups at LT and Center. The fact that Carson was still able to produce like that should say something. Even losing Steinbach and his flexibility, should injuries strike as hard as last year I don't think the effects will be any more damaging. Whitworth is able to slide to tackle if needed, and there's two backup Centers (Wilkerson and Stepanovich) that should be able to step in for Ghiacuic. I'm somewhat curious as to how the run game will be effected by going from Steinbach (smaller, but great in space on pulls), to Whitworth (less athlethic, but MASSIVE and a mauler).2) This is true. There's no knowing for sure how the team will do without Henry who is a HUGE red zone threat (TD every 4 catches last year). Tab Perry looked to be coming along good as a receiver last year before he got hurt, Antonio Chatman was productive in GB before he was hurt here, and Bennie Brazell had a ton of hype in camp before tearing his PCL in the preseason (on a TD catch if I recall). The Bengals have also never run a TE focused offense, preferring to use their tight ends as blockers. One major difference between 2006 and 2005 though was the loss of Chris Perry (again). In 2005 Perry had 51 catches, 3rd on the team. He was often used as an outlet/checkdown option for Carson if the recievers weren't open. Last year Carson struggled without that, especially early when he was still a little skittish on his knee. Since the Bengals acquired Irons in the draft, I'd hope they're able to use more pass options to the RB again this season, and that might help patch the hole for the 8 games that Henry's out.

Predictions?

3900 Yards, 34 TDs, 12 INTs.

I fully expect the Bengals to have a top 10 special teams this year which will put a little bit of a damper on yardage.

Hate to nitpick because I agree with everything else in your post. And I don't really want to hijack here, but since you pointed out the effect on Palmer's yardage...I'm on the special teams angle.

Marcus Wilkins gone, Tony Stewart gone, Kevin Kaesviharn gone, Kenny Watson could be gone. I like what a healthy Perry and Chatman could bring, but there's has been just as much lost as potentially gained in return talent. I hope you're right, but I don't see the special teams changing field position so dramatically as to take 10 plus yards from Palmer a week.

 

[Splat]

Hate to nitpick because I agree with everything else in your post. And I don't really want to hijack here, but since you pointed out the effect on Palmer's yardage...I'm on the special teams angle.Marcus Wilkins gone, Tony Stewart gone, Kevin Kaesviharn gone, Kenny Watson could be gone. I like what a healthy Perry and Chatman could bring, but there's has been just as much lost as potentially gained in return talent. I hope you're right, but I don't see the special teams changing field position so dramatically as to take 10 plus yards from Palmer a week.

The Bengals had really good coverage teams last year (1st in punt coverage, tied for 6th in kick coverage). Yes, they lost some solid special teamers, but Darrin Simmons has been pretty good lately at plugging in people and getting results. Ethan Kilmer (7th rounder last year) has been phenomenal and Ndukwe will probably make the team as a special teamer this year too. I just don't see the fall (if any) of coverage teams being anywhere near the rise in the return game from getting Perry and Chatman back, in 06, the bengals were 29th in Kick returns without Perry, whereas they were 9th with him in 05. Keiwan's been horrible for us at PR, 29th in 06, 31st in 05, whereas Chatman was 12th in the league in 05 w/ the packers and 14 the year before. Maybe some of it's a hunch, but that's what I'm going off of.

 

[Da Guru]

I am looking at a big year out of Carson.

25-27 TDs

4K passing yards.

 

[kensat30]

I think we will see similar numbers to last year. Palmer wasn't really up to form early in the season when he was favoring the knee. I remember watching him and watching him miss on a lot of big plays because he was afraid to step into the throw.

Losing Chris Henry I think will have a similar crippling effect to him for the first half of the season. Henry was probably one of the top, if not the top, WR#3s in the NFL.

I'll go 3900/28/14

 

[chris1969]

There are way to many variables on Palmer for me to project stats for him right now. Ask me after the last preseason game.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Palmer will have a solid season, but will have a hard time living up to where he is projected by many. The Bengals have some question marks on the offensive line and defenses will in my opinion key on wide receivers Johnson and Housh and not have to worry about to many other options in passing situations.

I look for a solid season, but not quite what everone's projecting.

3725 yards passing and 25 td's with 18 Ints

 

[Mr. Bill O'Reilly]

4,150 yards 36 TD's 15 INT's

 

[footballman_696969]

Carson Palmer has been a consistently good fantasy football quarterback for the last two years. He is young and talented and should improve his skills each year. Carson has two great receiving options in Chad and TJ and two great RBs to keep the defense honest. I see no reason for his numbers to take a big hit this year.

318/504 3830 yrds 28td/12int

30 rushes for 39 yards and 0 tds

 

[FUBAR]

312/517, 4,197, 31/10

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Assuming he stays healthy:

333 completions, 521 attempts, 3859 yards, 28 TDs, 15 INTs, 30 rushes, 49 yards, 0.8 rushTDs

 

[Verbal Kint]

I firmly believe that losing Henry for a half season will have a significant detrimental effect on Palmer's numbers. There is no other WR that can step in and do the things he did as a WR3. IMO, his combination of size, speed and leaping ability is comparable to Randy Moss (Vikings era) And in much the same way as C-Pep ans Moss, it seemed that Henry was good for one 60-yd bomb every game. Carson has so much confidence that he could heave it down field in single coverage and Henry would just go get it. Without that weapon the offense is not nearly is potent. If Chris Perry comes back, that may offset the loss, but I don't think anyone is counting on that.

3750 yds, 30 TDs, 14 Ints

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

So, where would you take Palmer in a 12 team standard scoring redraft?

 

[BigRed]

2) Secondary receiving options -- It's very rare for a team to rank among the league's top 5 passing attacks based on the prowess of only two receivers.

I'd like to see some stats on that and how "the prowess of only two receivers" is defined. Seems to me in most cases the top 2 WRs carry the load, but I could be wrong.Palmer should be fine, although I expect a slight downturn (law of averages etc). And I'm sick of the "you can get a good enough QB late" BS biting me in the butt so I want Manning, Brady, or this guy on my team this year.

 

[To commish is my wish]

2) Secondary receiving options -- It's very rare for a team to rank among the league's top 5 passing attacks based on the prowess of only two receivers.

I'd like to see some stats on that and how "the prowess of only two receivers" is defined. Seems to me in most cases the top 2 WRs carry the load, but I could be wrong.Palmer should be fine, although I expect a slight downturn (law of averages etc). And I'm sick of the "you can get a good enough QB late" BS biting me in the butt so I want Manning, Brady, or this guy on my team this year.

I hear ya! Last year those "good enough QBs" were Bledsoe, Delhomme, and Plummer. No thanks!!!

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I think we will see similar numbers to last year. Palmer wasn't really up to form early in the season when he was favoring the knee. I remember watching him and watching him miss on a lot of big plays because he was afraid to step into the throw.

When projecting Palmer this year, you have to remember that he was not himself early in the year - a contributing factor was a porous line that kept him under fire most of the time.I think the loss of Henry is being overblown. Yes, he reeled in a lot of TDs - a few can be chalked up to Henry's tools and talent, but I think thats mostly Palmer making the right read and delivering the ball accurately and on time. If Tab Perry or Antonio Chatman can just run the right route and catch the ball when it is thrown on target, I wouldn't expect any significant drop in Palmer's numbers due to Henry being out.

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

And I'm sick of the "you can get a good enough QB late" BS biting me in the butt so I want Manning, Brady, or this guy on my team this year.

and ditto.

 

[Rogi]

2) Secondary receiving options -- It's very rare for a team to rank among the league's top 5 passing attacks based on the prowess of only two receivers.

I'd like to see some stats on that and how "the prowess of only two receivers" is defined. Seems to me in most cases the top 2 WRs carry the load, but I could be wrong.Palmer should be fine, although I expect a slight downturn (law of averages etc). And I'm sick of the "you can get a good enough QB late" BS biting me in the butt so I want Manning, Brady, or this guy on my team this year.

I agree that getting a good QB late is strategy. I was burned by that last year. QBs get 6pts/td in my league and I'm looking for a top tier QB.Palmer should have a good season. He's a great QB with two dangerous receivers. Losing Henry does hurt, but I don't think it will take Palmer out of the top 3 QB projection rankings.

 

[shadyridr]

2) Secondary receiving options -- It's very rare for a team to rank among the league's top 5 passing attacks based on the prowess of only two receivers.

I'd like to see some stats on that and how "the prowess of only two receivers" is defined. Seems to me in most cases the top 2 WRs carry the load, but I could be wrong.Palmer should be fine, although I expect a slight downturn (law of averages etc). And I'm sick of the "you can get a good enough QB late" BS biting me in the butt so I want Manning, Brady, or this guy on my team this year.

I hear ya! :X Last year those "good enough QBs" were Bledsoe, Delhomme, and Plummer. No thanks!!!

and Drew Brees

 

[Family Matters]

Assuming he stays healthy:

333 completions, 521 attempts, 3859 yards, 28 TDs, 15 INTs, 30 rushes, 49 yards, 0.8 rushTDs

It didn't go unnoticed. :X I like it.

 

[Snotbubbles]

2) Secondary receiving options -- It's very rare for a team to rank among the league's top 5 passing attacks based on the prowess of only two receivers. Last year, the Bengals were 7th with 4,066 yards and were a byproduct of Housh and Chad Johnson almost exclusively. Chris Henry caught 36 passes, no other receiver caught more than 9 passes. With Henry gone, can Tab Perry and Glenn Holt contribute?

Wood if you give me some limitations on RB recieving production, I'll try and see how often it happens. I know off the top of my head that teams like the 1997 Broncos and the 1998-1999 Vikings didn't use their RBs much and they still finished in the top 5.

 

[mbuehner]

Whats not to like? The only problem i have with Palmer is that somebody else is going to draft him before i will in all my leagues Palmer is one of those guys that at least one owner in every league is in love with (at least!) After Manning I would be thrilled to have Brady, Brees, or Bulger- and wouldnt mind rolling the dice on McNabb. And there's nothing wrong with waiting till late and using the shotgun approach with maybe Rivers, Favre, and a darkhorse like Cutler or Kitna. Bottom line- Palmer is going to be excellent but he may be overvalued simply because there are a lot of good options at QB this year that are undervalued.

Receiving options dont scare me at all- Palmer can throw to TJ and CJ all day long and be successful.

320 completions, 4100 yards, 29 TDs, 10 ints.

 

[Kirby]

4000 passing yards

32 passing TDs

11 INTs

30 rushing yards

1 rushing TD

 

[BigRed]

Whats not to like?

Losses on the OL, mostly. Not earth-shattering, but not exactly insignificant either.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Whats not to like?

Losses on the OL, mostly. Not earth-shattering, but not exactly insignificant either.

Actually, the losses probably won't be significant. Eric Ghiaciuc looked better than he ever has in the first preseason game and has a full season under his belt as the starter. He improved greatly during the 2006 season. The only real "loss" is Eric Steinbach. Steinbach was a very good player and Andrew Whitworth may have some growing pains after filling in at tackle last year and not getting the second team reps at guard as was planned. Palmer was not touched during the first two series against Detroit.The real issue is the health of the two starting tackles. Levi Jones has yet to practice after offseason arthroscopic knee surgery and it remains up in the air if he'll be ready for opening weekend. Willie Anderson is still rehabbing the foot injury he suffered last season and hasn't practiced either but is expected to get back on the field soon. It's impossible to overstate the importance of those two players. The offensive line may become a problem for Palmer's statistical output, but it won't be because of the loss of Eric Steinbach.

 

[Family Matters]

Whats not to like?

Losses on the OL, mostly. Not earth-shattering, but not exactly insignificant either.

Actually, the losses probably won't be significant. Eric Ghiaciuc looked better than he ever has in the first preseason game and has a full season under his belt as the starter. He improved greatly during the 2006 season. The only real "loss" is Eric Steinbach. Steinbach was a very good player and Andrew Whitworth may have some growing pains after filling in at tackle last year and not getting the second team reps at guard as was planned. Palmer was not touched during the first two series against Detroit.The real issue is the health of the two starting tackles. Levi Jones has yet to practice after offseason arthroscopic knee surgery and it remains up in the air if he'll be ready for opening weekend. Willie Anderson is still rehabbing the foot injury he suffered last season and hasn't practiced either but is expected to get back on the field soon. It's impossible to overstate the importance of those two players. The offensive line may become a problem for Palmer's statistical output, but it won't be because of the loss of Eric Steinbach.

While I'm sure some are going to look at the line as a reason to remain cautious, count me as one who is not worried. These guys (the new lineman) played last year so they have experience. Steinbach was llowed to walk because they felt good about what they had. I keep hearing that Jones and Williams should be fine and if they are this offense should be one of the 2-3 this year. There's plenty to like.

 

[NYGus]

I agree that getting a good QB late is strategy. I was burned by that last year. QBs get 6pts/td in my league and I'm looking for a top tier QB.

If that's the case (6pts per TD) then I don't see why you would take anything other than a top flight QB in round 1. No RB is going to score 25+ TD's on a regular basis--1 per season MAYBE, but there are usually 3-6 QB's that are in the 24-30 TD range.

 

[Airbus79]

I'm just amazed how many of you are questioning Palmer's wr corps and how it will affect his value. I would be more concerned about Brady rather than Palmer because Palmer has TWO wr's worthy of top 10 consideration in C.Johnson and Housh while Brady has ZERO wr's worthy of top 15 consideration. With that said, I expect Palmer to slightly improve this year for several reasons:

1. No recent injury to affect slow start like 2006.

2. Palmer's elite passing ability will allow him to perform well regardless of the opponent's defense.

3. Bengals' opponents generally have more stout rushing defense compared to passing defense so Palmer will air out more against those opponents: Ravens, Steelers, Patriots, Seahawks, and Jets.

4. Weak Bengals defense: no off-season additions offering an immediate impact on defense so there will be some high scoring games where Palmer could post 350+ passing yards and 3+ TD's.

5. With due respect to Gray's SOS, Palmer's playoff schedule equals fantasy goldmine with opponents (using Howerton's defense ranking) being 49ers (26th), Browns (28th), and Rams (29th).

6. Bengals competes in a tough division so every game counts for the Bengals and their starters will play during FFL playoff weeks.

2007 Stats: 4,236 PYD, 31 PTD, 15 INT, 40 RYD, and 0 RTD.

#2 QB behind P. Manning

 

[BigRed]

I'm just amazed how many of you are questioning Palmer's wr corps and how it will affect his value. I would be more concerned about Brady rather than Palmer because Palmer has TWO wr's worthy of top 10 consideration in C.Johnson and Housh while Brady has ZERO wr's worthy of top 15 consideration.

Pretending that matters given how NE is notorious for spreading it around, Moss could easily be top 15, or more.

playoff schedule equals fantasy goldmine with opponents (using Howerton's defense ranking) being 49ers (26th), Browns (28th), and Rams (29th).

I do like that.....

Bengals competes in a tough division

um not a reason I'd want to draft someone. Still he is of course high on my list. If he and/or Manning get too costly (likely), I'll want either Brees or Brady.

 

[BigRed]

Palmer seems to be comfortably in that zone of QB2-QB4, someone fantasy leaguers will draft in the first three or four rounds in virtually all redraft leagues.While I understand the temptation to project yet another stellar season, I would be curious to hear what people think about:1) The Bengals offensive line shuffle -- This is the first time in his career Palmer won't have the same O-line protecting him2) Secondary receiving options -- It's very rare for a team to rank among the league's top 5 passing attacks based on the prowess of only two receivers. Last year, the Bengals were 7th with 4,066 yards and were a byproduct of Housh and Chad Johnson almost exclusively. Chris Henry caught 36 passes, no other receiver caught more than 9 passes. With Henry gone, can Tab Perry and Glenn Holt contribute?

These are perhaps minor but lingering concerns I have about this guy. Sure he should be generally fine, but is he still QB2 or 3 worthy? The OL and WR losses make me think it might be wise to take Brady or Brees over him -

 

[BigRed]

bump for any final .02 before my draft - he hasn't looked all that great in pre-season, not that I think it mean a ton, just IMO/FWIW

 

[Blackstar]

# For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

4000+, 38TD, 9 Ints, 0 ,0