Player Spotlight: Chad Johnson (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Chad Johnson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Player Page Link: Chad Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[oswizzle]

90 Rec 1400 Yds 10 TD

 

[Yitbos69]

Chad has put up 3 very consistant years in a row. His talent coupled with his desire to be the best WR in the NFL is why I have him ranked as my #1 redraft WR

2003 90\1355\10

2004 95\1274\9

2005 97\1432\9

2006 projections 99\1485\12

 

[Bankerguy]

I am in total agreement about the consistency comment for CJ. You know what you are going to get. With that said.....the only X-factor is the health of Palmer. Any set backs with the knee or new injuries could really hurt CJ. The back up QB's for Cincy leave a little bit to be desired. For Chad's sake he is hoping Plamer stays healthy.

I am going a bit conservative. Still a Top 5 WR.

90

1290

10

 

[Bizkiteer]

93/1350/11

Similar what is said, but even if Palmer isn't back right away...Wright is servicable. The best part is Wright locks into his favorite guy, as he did w/ Marcus Robinson, Heap and D.Mason. Thus, he should not be hurt too bad if Palmer is out for a game or two. I did mark down the yardage ever so slightly due to Palmer being out for the first few games. I think he turns a few more long plays into TD's and becomes more a redzone threat, so I increased his TD's ever so slightly too.

 

[jerseyh8r]

I assume that Palmer plays all season....have thought he would all off-season. Not only is he consistent season to season, but he is also one of the most (if not the most....I am not completely done with the figures yet) consistent performers game to game as well.

I see a career year....(assuming a healthy Palmer)

102-1530-10

 

[Musesboy]

Chad Johnson has improved his reception numbers every year since entering the league, and has posted four straight seasons of 1100 yards or more. He benefited from the improvement in Carson Palmer's game last year and is clearly one of the better fantasy options at receiver after three consecutive finishes in the top 10.

Johnson is a big part of the Bengals' offense and he typically sees around 10 targets per game. He will be hoping that Palmer is ready for the start of the season, but recent reports suggest that Palmer is two months ahead of schedule in his rehabilitation and that he may even see action in a preseason game. The options behind Palmer are not particularly inspiring and any absence from him would hurt Johnson's value. Luckily, Palmer does not rely hugely on his mobility and is more of a pocket passer.

T. J. Houshmandzadeh has emerged as a good option opposite Johnson, and demands respect from opposing teams. Palmer seems to be able to find Johnson even though the defense is expecting it. Johnson is also a big play threat and had seven gains of 40+ yards last year as well as 74 first downs. He is a good student of the game and wants to be as good as he can possibly be. He's also great fun to watch.

Prediction

95 receptions 1400 yards 10 TDs

 

[fruity pebbles]

He's always good for around 1400 yards and 10 TDs.

 

[brobe4]

102 rec 1560 yds 15 tds

 

[Cool in the pocket]

Grouped in the top tier of WR's with a bunch of others and then a noticeable drop off IMO. He has been the model of consistency in terms of production and the only question anyone seems to have about him this year is Palmer. With no clear cut #1WR, Chad will likely go early in that group because his consistency warrants it--high floor which is what I look for in a low round pick. Palmer's injury was devestating (and painful to watch) and most injuries of this nature take that first year back to pre-injury form if you get back at all. Palmer's way ahead of schedule currently, but it is impossible to tell how he'll react in a game situation or mentally. He is the franchise QB for Cincy and they will not jeopardize that IMO. Anthony Wright does nothing for me. I believe Palmer will come back this year, but the offense will be out of sync while he gets his feet and head back into it and thus CJ's "safety" is gone. I'm not down on CJ, just his situation. There are 8 WR's with a current round 2 ADP (12 teams), many of which I consider in CJ's tier, so I won't be quick to pull the trigger on CJ if I think I can wait an extra round and get a WR from the same tier.

92 catches, 1240 yards, 9 TD's

 

[rzrback77]

Chad Johnson has been a model of consistency over the past four seasons, not week to week, but for the season. Since catching 69 passes for 1166 yards and 5 TDs in 2002, he has averaged over 90 catches, 1300 yards and 9 TDs per season. Therefore, you would expect a very high floor with Chad and that is why he has an ADP 17 at WR2.

Most are apparently expecting Carson Palmer to return to form, even though he is returning from major off-season knee surgery resulting from an injury in calendar year 2006. I really believe that the Bengals offense will lean a little more on the running game, especially early in the season.

I think that caution should be used by fantasy drafters and that it likely will be used by the Bengals' staff. They could choose to bring Palmer along more slowly than the media is reporting now. Carson Palmer himself, could choose to be patient, either by not starting from the get-go or in how he plays.

I think that Chad will have another good year, just off some from recent ones, and therefore will not be a good early 2nd round pick.

85 catches for 1250 yards and 6 TDs

 

[Spartans Rule]

The Bengals often hasn't changed much at all this offseason. If you assume Palmer to be healthy, you can just about paste last year's stats in to your projections.

One thing I did notice, however, was that the Bengals offensive TDs went way up last season, but Chad Johnson's did not.

The Bengals had 38 O TD's in 2004 and CJ had 10 of them. The Bengals had 37 in 2005 and CJ had 9. But when the Bengals O took off and scored 47 in 2006, CJ still only had 9. Meanwhile Chris Henry caught 6 TDs, Jeremi Johnson caught 3 and WRs scored 2 rush TDs. That's not likely to repeat. If the Bengals get over 40 TDs again as a team, CJ should reach double digits.

While I gave CJ an ever-so-slight downgrade in catches and yards due to the uncertainty around Palmer, his TDs should go up at least a little.

93 catches, 1302 yards, 11 TDs

 

[mlball77]

I think that Palmer will be either rushed back and early on may not produce the type of numbers we have come to expect... or he may sit out a couple/few games early. Either way, I believe that the Bengals passing offense will be less productive in 06. This lower level of production will directly effect CJ's output, imo.

Recs: 91

Rec Yds: 1275

Rec TDs: 10

 

[Musesboy]

Predicted

95 receptions 1400 yards 10 TDs

Actual

87 receptions 1369 yards 7 TDs

I am always happy to get this close with a projection, although it was achieved in a different manner than I expected. Johnson's slow start enabled me to trade for him in some leagues, and his weak finish contributed towards a loss in at least least one championship game. Most people had him projected at 10 TDs or more. Owners will be looking for more consistency on a game-by-game basis next season.

Chad Johnson has improved his reception numbers every year since entering the league, and has posted four straight seasons of 1100 yards or more. He benefited from the improvement in Carson Palmer's game last year and is clearly one of the better fantasy options at receiver after three consecutive finishes in the top 10.

Johnson is a big part of the Bengals' offense and he typically sees around 10 targets per game. He will be hoping that Palmer is ready for the start of the season, but recent reports suggest that Palmer is two months ahead of schedule in his rehabilitation and that he may even see action in a preseason game. The options behind Palmer are not particularly inspiring and any absence from him would hurt Johnson's value. Luckily, Palmer does not rely hugely on his mobility and is more of a pocket passer.

T. J. Houshmandzadeh has emerged as a good option opposite Johnson, and demands respect from opposing teams. Palmer seems to be able to find Johnson even though the defense is expecting it. Johnson is also a big play threat and had seven gains of 40+ yards last year as well as 74 first downs. He is a good student of the game and wants to be as good as he can possibly be. He's also great fun to watch.

Prediction

95 receptions 1400 yards 10 TDs