Player Spotlight: Chad Johnson (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Chad Johnson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Player Page Link: Chad Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[ImTheScientist]

CJ has finished Top-10 4 years in a row now, but never has had that huge year. Johnson is now in the prime of his career and I would look for this year to be his huge statistical year. For the first part of last year Palmer and Johnson were not on the same page. This could have been due to Palmers limited reps in training camp. Now that Palmer is heathy look for Johnson to finish #1 in scoring for WR's. At worst if you select him as the first WR off the board you get a WR who is one of best bets to finish in the TOP-10.

Chad Johnson

101 receptions

1515 yards recieving

14 TDS

 

[Cowboys#1]

I love watching this guy play, had some horrible drops that could have given him an extra td or 2.

I like his situation this year, Palmer is in his prime and a year removed from that ACL injury, he has a good #2 receiver who can help keep defenses honest and a solid rb who moves the chains.. Pretty much a safe bet to be a top 10 WR and probably a top 3.

91-1405-11

 

[Horrorshow]

Chad Johnson's overall numbers from 2006 are interesting. He certainly had an odd year from a statistical PoV.

If we break his season down a few factors jump out at you;

1. CJ's production dramatically increased in the second half of 2006.

Games 1/8 = 40 receptions, 482 yards, 12.1 YPC, 2 TD's

Games 9/16 = 47 receptions, 887 yards, 18.9 YPC, 5 TD's

2. CJ was far more dangerous on first down than on later downs.

First Down = 42 receptions, 758 yards, 18.1 YPC, 4 TD's

2/3/4 Down = 45 receptions, 611 yards, 13.6 YPC, 3 TD's

3. CJ was far more dangerous in his own half than in enemy territory.

Own Half = 54 receptions, 957 yards, 17.7 YPC, 3 TD's

Opponents Half = 33 receptions, 412 yards, 12.5 YPC, 4 TD's

 

[Dhizz]

Over under on how many career year projections? Already have 1.

Fantasy wise, CJ was a bust last year. Yes his end of year totals were good. But he was a 2nd round pick in most leagues (some early 3rd) and his week to week production was mostly garbage.

Take out his best 2 games (do it with all WRs, and see how CJ falls like no other)

81 catches

919 yards

2 tds

in 14 games.

2 tds? In 14 games? In TD heavy leagues, he was utterly useless 80% of the year. FF playoffs last year he stunk it up with

10 catches

122 yards

0 tds

in the final 3 games.

Of course there is variance, there's ups and downs, but as a week in week out 2nd round pick, he was a very poor performer. Unless you're in a total points league, he's extremely overrated. CJ gets so much hype because he dances. Yes he's a great WR. But he's not worth taking anywhere close to his ADP. CJ was great value before he started dancing. Now he's a 2nd round WR who is coming off a horrible inconsistent year. (and he turns 30 just before the playoffs start)

Maybe he returns to 2005 form, but those swings last year were simply too drastic for a 2nd round WR.

82 1302 6

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I think Chadd Johnson is capable of better than what we saw last year. Carson Palmer was coming off an injury and that affected the way the entire offense played. This year, I think the Bengals will be clicking on offense and Chadd Johnson will be a guy you want on your team.

97 recpetions for 1380 yards and 11 td's

 

[lord_helmet]

I think Palmer will have a huge year, if I'm correct CJ's stats should be pretty damn good.

90 rec, 1375 yds, 11 TDs

 

[ImTheScientist]

Over under on how many career year projections? Already have 1.

Fantasy wise, CJ was a bust last year. Yes his end of year totals were good. But he was a 2nd round pick in most leagues (some early 3rd) and his week to week production was mostly garbage.

Take out his best 2 games (do it with all WRs, and see how CJ falls like no other)

81 catches

919 yards

2 tds

in 14 games.

2 tds? In 14 games? In TD heavy leagues, he was utterly useless 80% of the year. FF playoffs last year he stunk it up with

10 catches

122 yards

0 tds

in the final 3 games.

Of course there is variance, there's ups and downs, but as a week in week out 2nd round pick, he was a very poor performer. Unless you're in a total points league, he's extremely overrated. CJ gets so much hype because he dances. Yes he's a great WR. But he's not worth taking anywhere close to his ADP. CJ was great value before he started dancing. Now he's a 2nd round WR who is coming off a horrible inconsistent year. (and he turns 30 just before the playoffs start)

Maybe he returns to 2005 form, but those swings last year were simply too drastic for a 2nd round WR.

82 1302 6

I don't see why people do this....because the fact is he had those two monster weeks. Those two weeks were automatic victories for teams. How can you take his two best weeks and then keep his 2 worst weeks (if you are into taking away stats)?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

last year was about as rough as it'll get for 85 - Palmer was not himself (and the line wasnt helping), Chad got his bell rung vs Cleveland in week 2, and was not himself for week 3 vs. the Steelers.

Is it troubling that so much of his production came against weaker secondaries in shootouts? Did he really fall off last year, and those games are masking it?

I would say no, there's no injury, age, or other apparent dropoffs in his play to cite.

I would expect another top 5 season from Ocho Cinco.

 

[duaneok66]

Chad Johnson's overall numbers from 2006 are interesting. He certainly had an odd year from a statistical PoV.

If we break his season down a few factors jump out at you;

1. CJ's production dramatically increased in the second half of 2006.

Games 1/8 = 40 receptions, 482 yards, 12.1 YPC, 2 TD's

Games 9/16 = 47 receptions, 887 yards, 18.9 YPC, 5 TD's

2. CJ was far more dangerous on first down than on later downs.

First Down = 42 receptions, 758 yards, 18.1 YPC, 4 TD's

2/3/4 Down = 45 receptions, 611 yards, 13.6 YPC, 3 TD's

3. CJ was far more dangerous in his own half than in enemy territory.

Own Half = 54 receptions, 957 yards, 17.7 YPC, 3 TD's

Opponents Half = 33 receptions, 412 yards, 12.5 YPC, 4 TD's

#1 was due to giving the QB to get back to top form after the injury and a shaky beginning for the OL . . . Chad's deep patterns weren't as effective then, but TJH's performance was stable (his patterns are usually shorter) . . .

 

[kensat30]

90/1300/9

Chad Johnson is not a "stud" WR. Only once in his career has he scored 10 or more TDs in a season, yet I'm guessing that 90% of the projections in his thread will have him over 10. Don't get me wrong, CJ's yardage makes him a solid #1 fantasy WR, especially if he can be more consistent on a week to week basis compared to last season, but he is not going to carry your team like several other wrs have the potential to.

Bottomline, Chad Johnson will probably be overrated by someone who has him ranked as their top3 or even #1 fantasy WR this year and go off the board way too early. I will gladly take Terrell Owens or even Torry Holt after Chad Johnson is already off the board.

You can even get TJ Houshmazillah a couple rounds after Chad and get similar production IMO.

 

[shadyridr]

This guys a stud but with the emergence of TJ and the fact that Chad seems to be more of the deep threat I think he will be a bit more inconsistent than other WR1s. That being said hes clearly top 5.

90 rec, 1300 yds, 9 tds

 

[ImTheScientist]

90/1300/9

Chad Johnson is not a "stud" WR. Only once in his career has he scored 10 or more TDs in a season, yet I'm guessing that 90% of the projections in his thread will have him over 10. Don't get me wrong, CJ's yardage makes him a solid #1 fantasy WR, especially if he can be more consistent on a week to week basis compared to last season, but he is not going to carry your team like several other wrs have the potential to.

Bottomline, Chad Johnson will probably be overrated by someone who has him ranked as their top3 or even #1 fantasy WR this year and go off the board way too early. I will gladly take Terrell Owens or even Torry Holt after Chad Johnson is already off the board.

You can even get TJ Houshmazillah a couple rounds after Chad and get similar production IMO.

The last two years he was ranked #4 .... is it too much of a leap to think with a healthy Palmer that he may jump into the top 3?Are you saying Torry Holt is a stud WR and Chad Johnson is not?

Holts last three year average: REC: 96 YARDS: 1297 TDS: 9.6

Chads last three year average:REC: 93 YARDS: 1358 TDS: 8.3

2 out of the last 3 years Johons has outscored Torry Holt in fantasy production. May I also add that you probably wont have a shot at waiting to pick Holt or Owens later. All three Wr's should be second round picks. So the real question is would you pick Holt/Owens over Johnson, you can't wait on a player in the second round. I would not pick Owens because he is and may be suspended at any moment and Holt is on a worse team than Johnson.

The only player I may consider choosing over Johnson is Harrison

 

[Traders2001]

90/1300/9Chad Johnson is not a "stud" WR. Only once in his career has he scored 10 or more TDs in a season, yet I'm guessing that 90% of the projections in his thread will have him over 10. Don't get me wrong, CJ's yardage makes him a solid #1 fantasy WR, especially if he can be more consistent on a week to week basis compared to last season, but he is not going to carry your team like several other wrs have the potential to. Bottomline, Chad Johnson will probably be overrated by someone who has him ranked as their top3 or even #1 fantasy WR this year and go off the board way too early. I will gladly take Terrell Owens or even Torry Holt after Chad Johnson is already off the board.You can even get TJ Houshmazillah a couple rounds after Chad and get similar production IMO.

Exactly what i tought he is nt any top 5 WR , he does nt even score 10 TD's .

 

[Traders2001]

CJ has finished Top-10 4 years in a row now, but never has had that huge year. Johnson is now in the prime of his career and I would look for this year to be his huge statistical year. For the first part of last year Palmer and Johnson were not on the same page. This could have been due to Palmers limited reps in training camp. Now that Palmer is heathy look for Johnson to finish #1 in scoring for WR's. At worst if you select him as the first WR off the board you get a WR who is one of best bets to finish in the TOP-10.

Chad Johnson

101 receptions

1515 yards recieving

14 TDS

In your wildest dream.

 

[bshipper]

90/1300/9Chad Johnson is not a "stud" WR. Only once in his career has he scored 10 or more TDs in a season, yet I'm guessing that 90% of the projections in his thread will have him over 10. Don't get me wrong, CJ's yardage makes him a solid #1 fantasy WR, especially if he can be more consistent on a week to week basis compared to last season, but he is not going to carry your team like several other wrs have the potential to. Bottomline, Chad Johnson will probably be overrated by someone who has him ranked as their top3 or even #1 fantasy WR this year and go off the board way too early. I will gladly take Terrell Owens or even Torry Holt after Chad Johnson is already off the board.You can even get TJ Houshmazillah a couple rounds after Chad and get similar production IMO.

Exactly what i tought he is nt any top 5 WR , he does nt even score 10 TD's .

You make it sound like scoring 10+ TDs is commonplace for WR these days. In fact, only 5 WR scored 10+ TDs last year, and 3 of those were exactly 10. Plus, if you can name those 5 without looking, I would be surprised. If you consider all 5 of those to be top 5 WRs, I would be even more shocked.I think the reason for projecting CJ to have 10+ this year is because of Chris Henry's absence. Last year, CJ, TJ and Henry combined for 25 of Palmer's 28 TD passes. There is no reason to think Palmer won't top those numbers, so somebody has to catch them.Now if you want to argue inconsistency as his problem, then I would tend to agree, as a CJ owner last year. But TDs aren't the only thing that defines a top WR.

 

[Banger]

90-1400-10

He'll get a few more TD's due to Henry's absense.

 

[David Yudkin]

In the games where CJ and Housh have played together since roughly the midpoint of 2005 (21 total games), Housh has averaged 11.78 ppg to CJ's 10.96 ppg. I'm not convinced that Ocho Cinco is the clear #1 in CIN anymore at least for fantasy purposes.

 

[Domination]

92-1450-13

Palmer back to health and line being healthy will help for more steady production.

 

[mozzy84]

man this guy was frustrating last year, I didnt even start him alot of games last year.

84-1275-9

 

[Dhizz]

In the games where CJ and Housh have played together since roughly the midpoint of 2005 (21 total games), Housh has averaged 11.78 ppg to CJ's 10.96 ppg. I'm not convinced that Ocho Cinco is the clear #1 in CIN anymore at least for fantasy purposes.

And when you factor in taking CJ in the 2nd, vs Housh in the 4th, it's clear who the better value is.

 

[ImTheScientist]

In the games where CJ and Housh have played together since roughly the midpoint of 2005 (21 total games), Housh has averaged 11.78 ppg to CJ's 10.96 ppg. I'm not convinced that Ocho Cinco is the clear #1 in CIN anymore at least for fantasy purposes.

They have been saying the same thing about Harrison/Wayne. IMO this is a very similar combo of WR's because they both put up great numbers.

 

[ImTheScientist]

CJ has finished Top-10 4 years in a row now, but never has had that huge year. Johnson is now in the prime of his career and I would look for this year to be his huge statistical year. For the first part of last year Palmer and Johnson were not on the same page. This could have been due to Palmers limited reps in training camp. Now that Palmer is heathy look for Johnson to finish #1 in scoring for WR's. At worst if you select him as the first WR off the board you get a WR who is one of best bets to finish in the TOP-10.

Chad Johnson

101 receptions

1515 yards recieving

14 TDS

In your wildest dream.

95 receptions1432 yards

10 TD's

These are his career highs in each and Chads last three year average:REC: 93 YARDS: 1358 TDS: 8.3

I don't think its that much of a strech

 

[Power Monster]

Loud and proud and playing on a team that is just loaded with punks and a slew of potential offensive talent. Ocho cinco showed signs of pouting and being frustrated last year and he really did not have such a great year for his 2006 ADP. He padded his stats with some VERY explosive games near the stretch run but he started slowly and he was an absolute dog in the last 3 weeks when teams needed him the most. I see the same scenario developing here and I think that TJ will be well worth his ADP as they start to roll in. Sure- CJ has the potential but he is overly overrated in my opinion and the stats do lie when you look at his 2006 production carefully….

1250 yds

7 TDs

 

[Yitbos69]

man this guy was frustrating last year, I didnt even start him alot of games last year.84-1275-9

Who did you start in his place?I have him at 1400/10

 

[Jon_Moore]

Last year was certainly an odd one. He stunk most of it, and still finished leading the league in yards. Palmer should be all systems go from the first snap of the season. Which means Chad should be #1 more consistent, and #2 more dangerous.

People keep saying he's never had that monster season...what defines a monster season?

97 receptions 1432 yards and 9 tds seems pretty monster to me. Chad might not finish top 3, but he's one of the safest bets if not the safest bet to finish top 10, with the upside to be #1.

96 receptions 1440 yards 10 touchdowns. Not a "monster" year, but a darn good one.

 

[TaxMan]

Last year was certainly an odd one. He stunk most of it, and still finished leading the league in yards. Palmer should be all systems go from the first snap of the season. Which means Chad should be #1 more consistent, and #2 more dangerous. People keep saying he's never had that monster season...what defines a monster season? 97 receptions 1432 yards and 9 tds seems pretty monster to me. Chad might not finish top 3, but he's one of the safest bets if not the safest bet to finish top 10, with the upside to be #1. 96 receptions 1440 yards 10 touchdowns. Not a "monster" year, but a darn good one.

what's missing from Chad in all his great years is the # of TDs. if he can get 13-15 TDs along with his rec/yds, that would be GREAT !!

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Last year was certainly an odd one. He stunk most of it, and still finished leading the league in yards. Palmer should be all systems go from the first snap of the season. Which means Chad should be #1 more consistent, and #2 more dangerous.

People keep saying he's never had that monster season...what defines a monster season?

97 receptions 1432 yards and 9 tds seems pretty monster to me. Chad might not finish top 3, but he's one of the safest bets if not the safest bet to finish top 10, with the upside to be #1.

96 receptions 1440 yards 10 touchdowns. Not a "monster" year, but a darn good one.

Oh, it's sad how FF has skewed the minds of us football fans. How in the world is 96/1440/10 not a monster year for a WR? I can promise you this - if any WR has those stats in 2007, I will bet my left nut that they finish in the top 5.

 

[Cerwin]

This is Chad's year on top. He will lead the league in yards and TDs.

93

1678

15 TDs

 

[Keith Lewis]

Ocho Cinco is numero uno.

100 catches

1510 yards

12 TD

 

[rzrback77]

I'm surprised at the polarization with discussion of Chad Johnson. He was game to game inconsistent in 06, but most all WRs are. The thing I look at most for him in 07 is opportunity. In the previous five seasons he has had 124, 154, 158, 155, and 154 targets. This year the Bengals have lost Chris Henry for half the season minimum. Therefore Chad Johnson's opportunities will NOT go down and should increase. With those targets, he has averaged 88 receptions per year (92 per game over the past four years). Even with the slight TD decrease lst season, he has finished 3rd, 9th, 4th, and 4th among all WRs.

I think that Palmer will be a top performing QB (top 3) and Chad Johnson likewise will be a top 3 WR. I have him with 160 targets 105 catches 1510 yards and 12 TDs. Yes, its another career year projection for him.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm surprised at the polarization with discussion of Chad Johnson. He was game to game inconsistent in 06, but most all WRs are. The thing I look at most for him in 07 is opportunity. In the previous five seasons he has had 124, 154, 158, 155, and 154 targets. This year the Bengals have lost Chris Henry for half the season minimum. Therefore Chad Johnson's opportunities will NOT go down and should increase. With those targets, he has averaged 88 receptions per year (92 per game over the past four years). Even with the slight TD decrease lst season, he has finished 3rd, 9th, 4th, and 4th among all WRs.

I think that Palmer will be a top performing QB (top 3) and Chad Johnson likewise will be a top 3 WR. I have him with 160 targets 105 catches 1510 yards and 12 TDs. Yes, its another career year projection for him.

Feel free to project CJ however you want. However, in 2003, 2004, and 2005 there was no one one the team putting up WR3 numbers like Henry did in 2006 and Johnson did not hit any of the milestones that you've indicated. IMO, Housh is a much bigger threat to Johnson than Henry is, and his presence may limit Johnson's quest to vault into the Top 3.

 

[rzrback77]

I'm surprised at the polarization with discussion of Chad Johnson. He was game to game inconsistent in 06, but most all WRs are. The thing I look at most for him in 07 is opportunity. In the previous five seasons he has had 124, 154, 158, 155, and 154 targets. This year the Bengals have lost Chris Henry for half the season minimum. Therefore Chad Johnson's opportunities will NOT go down and should increase. With those targets, he has averaged 88 receptions per year (92 per game over the past four years). Even with the slight TD decrease lst season, he has finished 3rd, 9th, 4th, and 4th among all WRs.

I think that Palmer will be a top performing QB (top 3) and Chad Johnson likewise will be a top 3 WR. I have him with 160 targets 105 catches 1510 yards and 12 TDs. Yes, its another career year projection for him.

Feel free to project CJ however you want. However, in 2003, 2004, and 2005 there was no one one the team putting up WR3 numbers like Henry did in 2006 and Johnson did not hit any of the milestones that you've indicated. IMO, Housh is a much bigger threat to Johnson than Henry is, and his presence may limit Johnson's quest to vault into the Top 3.

Henry in 06 75 targets 36 catches 16.8 ypc 605 yds and 9 TDsHenry in 05 50 targets 31 catches 13.6 ypc 422 yds and 6 TDs

K Wash in 04 46 targets 31 catches 12.2 ypc 378 yds and 3 TDs

You are correct in that the 3rd option did not have the years previous that Chris Henry had last year, but that third option did contribute to the Bengals success, especially in the TD department. I also like TJ Housh this year, but think that Chad is the bigger benefactor of Henry's departure.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I'm surprised at the polarization with discussion of Chad Johnson. He was game to game inconsistent in 06, but most all WRs are. The thing I look at most for him in 07 is opportunity. In the previous five seasons he has had 124, 154, 158, 155, and 154 targets. This year the Bengals have lost Chris Henry for half the season minimum. Therefore Chad Johnson's opportunities will NOT go down and should increase. With those targets, he has averaged 88 receptions per year (92 per game over the past four years). Even with the slight TD decrease lst season, he has finished 3rd, 9th, 4th, and 4th among all WRs.

I think that Palmer will be a top performing QB (top 3) and Chad Johnson likewise will be a top 3 WR. I have him with 160 targets 105 catches 1510 yards and 12 TDs. Yes, its another career year projection for him.

Feel free to project CJ however you want. However, in 2003, 2004, and 2005 there was no one one the team putting up WR3 numbers like Henry did in 2006 and Johnson did not hit any of the milestones that you've indicated. IMO, Housh is a much bigger threat to Johnson than Henry is, and his presence may limit Johnson's quest to vault into the Top 3.

He finished 4th the last two years......Moving up one spot would not be that difficult IMO

 

[cowpie]

Over under on how many career year projections? Already have 1.Fantasy wise, CJ was a bust last year. Yes his end of year totals were good. But he was a 2nd round pick in most leagues (some early 3rd) and his week to week production was mostly garbage.Take out his best 2 games (do it with all WRs, and see how CJ falls like no other)81 catches919 yards2 tdsin 14 games.2 tds? In 14 games? In TD heavy leagues, he was utterly useless 80% of the year. FF playoffs last year he stunk it up with10 catches122 yards0 tdsin the final 3 games. Of course there is variance, there's ups and downs, but as a week in week out 2nd round pick, he was a very poor performer. Unless you're in a total points league, he's extremely overrated. CJ gets so much hype because he dances. Yes he's a great WR. But he's not worth taking anywhere close to his ADP. CJ was great value before he started dancing. Now he's a 2nd round WR who is coming off a horrible inconsistent year. (and he turns 30 just before the playoffs start)Maybe he returns to 2005 form, but those swings last year were simply too drastic for a 2nd round WR. 82 1302 6

great post

 

[cowpie]

Over under on how many career year projections? Already have 1.

Fantasy wise, CJ was a bust last year. Yes his end of year totals were good. But he was a 2nd round pick in most leagues (some early 3rd) and his week to week production was mostly garbage.

Take out his best 2 games (do it with all WRs, and see how CJ falls like no other)

81 catches

919 yards

2 tds

in 14 games.

2 tds? In 14 games? In TD heavy leagues, he was utterly useless 80% of the year. FF playoffs last year he stunk it up with

10 catches

122 yards

0 tds

in the final 3 games.

Of course there is variance, there's ups and downs, but as a week in week out 2nd round pick, he was a very poor performer. Unless you're in a total points league, he's extremely overrated. CJ gets so much hype because he dances. Yes he's a great WR. But he's not worth taking anywhere close to his ADP. CJ was great value before he started dancing. Now he's a 2nd round WR who is coming off a horrible inconsistent year. (and he turns 30 just before the playoffs start)

Maybe he returns to 2005 form, but those swings last year were simply too drastic for a 2nd round WR.

82 1302 6

I don't see why people do this....because the fact is he had those two monster weeks. Those two weeks were automatic victories for teams. How can you take his two best weeks and then keep his 2 worst weeks (if you are into taking away stats)?

People do this because you want to look at consistancy. in your defense, you should take out best and worst games, then look at it from there. In FFL, consistancy wins games. you need to have a player that is going to contribute week in week out.

Each league has its majic weekly points that you need to get to to win.

IN one league if you score 85 points, you should win, in another it is 60, in another it is 50 and the last it is 100.

if you take a player or are planning on taking a player that is not consistent and say only scores all of his points in 2 games, it will hurt you tremendously. mainly because you will pay too much for him and those 2 weeks in 2 of my leagues the teams with Johnson missed out on the production from johnson in week 10 because they were tired of only getting 6 points. not to mention that after 9 games he still only had 1 td and one game with more than 78 yards. man, you can get those types of guys in the 7th round or on the waivier wire. johnson even had a game with only 11 yards.

No weeks are automatic wins because you always end up playing someone else who had their best week, or you top qb or top rb was on a bye or whatever. no weeks are given. if you do think that it is a given, then looking at the stats above, how many given weeks did he cause you to lose.

also, if a player is not consistant, that does not typically get you through the playoffs.

people also do this to see which player they would rather have

say you had 2 players. each had 1200 yards and each had 8 tds.

One had 14 games each with 80 some yards and the 8 tds spread throughout with the remaing 2 games having 10-20 yards each.

the other was like johnson, with 7 games 60 or less and no tds, 7games with 80 ish yards and 2 tds and then two monster games with over 100 yards and 3 tds each game.

i know i would rather the first guys. this is why people do it to see how you are affected weekly not an estimated amount over the season.

in 2006 johnson had 8 games with no tds and 73 or less yards. and 5 under 50.

11 yards

31 yards

32 yards

37 yards

48 yards

53 yards

64 yards

73 yards

I would much rather a guy who can be had 1-2-3-4 rounds later and get me more consistant points.

you can get almost any WR to get you 50 or 60 yards a week and 6 tds that are spread out. fantasy football is about consistancy not necessarily about total stats as winning one or two weeks "guaranteed" does not do it for you. What about the other 11 or 12 games before the playoffs.

housh, coles or driver could be had 2 rounds after johnson and have done basically what johnson did. he is not worth taking at 2.01 or anywhere in the second round for that matter. you are better off taking a top qb like manning that scores 60 points more than all other qbs or another rb rather than taking johnson.

look at the difference in point ranking from 2nd -14th WR. it is only like 20 points and they are so inconsistant week in week out.

one or two big weeks by chad johnson is the only thing that separates him from the 10 guys taken after him.

any one of them could have a big week and jump up the list. driver did it last year. preseason he was ranked around 14th, and had a couple big weeks. the thing is that i bet many of the player taken after johnson had more weeks with better numbers than he did.

 

[BigJim®]

This guy killed me last year in a redraft. I still like him, but there is much better value elsewhere than taking CJ in the early 2nd round, based on his historic stats.

90 receptions, 1400 yards, 9 TDs [40 receptions, 700 yards and 5 TDs in weeks 8-9].

 

[Cool in the pocket]

90/1300/9

Chad Johnson is not a "stud" WR. Only once in his career has he scored 10 or more TDs in a season, yet I'm guessing that 90% of the projections in his thread will have him over 10. Don't get me wrong, CJ's yardage makes him a solid #1 fantasy WR, especially if he can be more consistent on a week to week basis compared to last season, but he is not going to carry your team like several other wrs have the potential to.

Bottomline, Chad Johnson will probably be overrated by someone who has him ranked as their top3 or even #1 fantasy WR this year and go off the board way too early. I will gladly take Terrell Owens or even Torry Holt after Chad Johnson is already off the board.

You can even get TJ Houshmazillah a couple rounds after Chad and get similar production IMO.

The last two years he was ranked #4 .... is it too much of a leap to think with a healthy Palmer that he may jump into the top 3?Are you saying Torry Holt is a stud WR and Chad Johnson is not?

Holts last three year average: REC: 96 YARDS: 1297 TDS: 9.6

Chads last three year average:REC: 93 YARDS: 1358 TDS: 8.3

2 out of the last 3 years Johons has outscored Torry Holt in fantasy production. May I also add that you probably wont have a shot at waiting to pick Holt or Owens later. All three Wr's should be second round picks. So the real question is would you pick Holt/Owens over Johnson, you can't wait on a player in the second round. I would not pick Owens because he is and may be suspended at any moment and Holt is on a worse team than Johnson.

The only player I may consider choosing over Johnson is Harrison

Steve Smith maybe?And I agree with several others here that TJ is the value play as you can get similar production with the same upside and arguably more consistency 2 rounds later.

 

[Power Monster]

Great post cowpie! This is why the stats lie at times. CJ was a bust last year. Two huge games was about it with this guy

 

[David Yudkin]

Great post cowpie! This is why the stats lie at times. CJ was a bust last year. Two huge games was about it with this guy

I have no opinion on whether CJ is consistent or not, but here are his weekly scores the past few years in 0 PPR leagues for people to come to their own conclusions . . .2006: 6, 13, 1, 6, 9, 7, 13, 3, 38, 37, 12, 9, 10, 3, 1, 5 2005: 10, 19, 19, 6, 11, 19, 9, 7, 9, 24, 14, 5, 2, 16, 17, 6 2004: 15, 4, 9, 5, 3, 20, 6, 7, 8, 14, 18, 28, 15, 1, 16, 8

 

[cowpie]

Great post cowpie! This is why the stats lie at times. CJ was a bust last year. Two huge games was about it with this guy

I have no opinion on whether CJ is consistent or not, but here are his weekly scores the past few years in 0 PPR leagues for people to come to their own conclusions . . .2006: 6, 13, 1, 6, 9, 7, 13, 3, 38, 37, 12, 9, 10, 3, 1, 5 2005: 10, 19, 19, 6, 11, 19, 9, 7, 9, 24, 14, 5, 2, 16, 17, 6 2004: 15, 4, 9, 5, 3, 20, 6, 7, 8, 14, 18, 28, 15, 1, 16, 8

2006 inconsistant, 2005 a little more consistant2004 inconsitsatneither way, considering that housh could be had in the 4th round and puts up almost the same stats AND has twice the number of red zone targets, i would wait 2 rounds and go for a Housh or a driverheck, roy williams put up about the same numbers too and could be had in the third if you don't want to wait unitl the 4th. bottom line johnson is a great reciever, very talented will always have 1100 yards or more and 7+ tds, but to take him at 2.01 .02.03.04.05.06 is definately too early considering that you can get similar fantasy produciton later

 

[Power Monster]

I would take TJ as well.

CJ averages an 8.3 in the last 4 weeks over that 3 season span. His numbers look good one out of the last 3 years. Good player but not worth the high pick he garners. He killed me last year which might be a bias but proceed with caution at his ADP....

 

[StrikeS2k]

 

[PantherPower]

Steve Smith > Chad Johnson

 

[Torque666]

Looking pretty good so far, but its a long season. I labored over him or TO at pick # 25. I ended up with CJ(with LT,Wayne picked in my first 2 rounds) due to a last second change of heart(was picking TO until i got the stickers in my hand and pasted CJ up there lol). Him and Palmer are really in sync so far this season and looks like CJ is a man possessed out there.

 

[Torque666]

Steve Smith > Chad Johnson

That was a given. No need to muddy the waters with untrelated wierdness.

 

[largentslovechild]

I'll make a plastic mask of the likeness to this man and wear it for halloween.

He is a monster and derserves to be feared in the dreams of my children and cornerbacks alike.