Player Spotlight: Chris Chambers (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Chris Chambers, WR, Miami Dolphins

Player Page Link: Chris Chambers Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Has to improve over last season. Ginn will not unseat him as the Miami WR1 this year. In fact of Chamvbers could ever see some one on one coverage i like him a lot better. Problem is he catches a low amount of balls thrown his way but he has worked with such greats as Fiedler, Feeley, Harrington, Lucas, not exactly Dan Marino types. I give him some leeway for that.

60 receptions, 800 yds, 6TD

WR are not the focal points of Cam Cameron's offenses so keep that in mind. I expect the ball to get spread around a lot.

 

[broncofan13000]

(KFFL) Jeff Darlington, of the Miami Herald, reports Miami Dolphins WR Chris Chambers is moving from the Z position to X receiver, which should allow him more space to exploit mismatches. Head coach Cam Cameron says Chambers has embraced the change through the initial stages of workouts. Chambers said several factors led to his disappointing 2006 season, but said lack of continuity in the offense and trust was chief reasons. Chambers said trust has been resolved. He also takes comfort knowing Cameron's offense with the San Diego Chargers was just as prolific with QB Philip Rivers in 2006 as it was with QB Drew Brees in 2005. Brees left for the New Orleans Saints after the 2005 season. Chambers describes his new role in the offense as "freedom," and his goals for the 2007 season are to finish with close to 80 catches and 10 touchdowns.

 

[SSOG]

Ah, Chris Chambers, my favorite whipping-boy. Chris Chambers is Brandon Lloyd with hype.

To quote myself from last year's player spotlight...

Many people point to the QB situation as the reason Chambers didn't produce last season. Personally, I think it's more a result of the fact that he couldn't catch the ball.

Watch the highlight reels of a game, and you'll see stunning grab after stunning grab made by Chambers. Watch the entire game and you'll see 2 easy catches dropped for every hard catch made. Last season, Chambers caught only 49% of the balls headed his direction. Before you blame that on the QB situation, consider that Wes Welker managed to catch 56% of the balls thrown his way (for a higher ypc, to boot!) with the exact same QB situation. Yes, Chambers faced tougher coverages than Welker... but he's supposed to be better, too, now isn't he?

Look down the list of the elite WRs from last season, and you'll notice they all have one thing in common- a fantastic catch percentage. Steve Smith (69%), Chad Johnson (63%), Santana Moss (63%), Larry Fitzgerald (62%), Anquan Boldin (60%), Marvin Harrison (62%), Reggie Wayne (68%), Torry Holt (63%). Looking back at previous years reinforces this trend (top fantasy WRs catch a high percentage of their opportunities).

Chris Chambers' career catch% numbers are 53%, 52%, 49%, 50%, and 49%. I will start believing he's an elite WR when he starts catching the dang ball with some consistancy.

Of course, we all know what comes next. Last year Chambers made me look like Nostradamus when he caught a ridiculous 39% of the balls thrown his way. According to Football Outsiders, no WR in the entire NFL produced as much negative value for his team as Chambers did, (producing twice as much negative value as Alvis Whitted, the second-to-last receiver). In fact, only one receiver since 2000 has produced more negative value in a season than Chambers did last year- Az Hakim in 2003. Last year, Miami averaged 4.42 yards for every pass thrown Chambers' way, which would be one of the lowest values in the league for an RB, but which for a WR is absolutely SHAMEFUL. I mean, I really cannot stress enough how brutally, horribly awful Chambers was last season. This guy WILL NOT be a fantasy WR1, ever, under any circumstances, unless he either leads the league in targets or bucks all trends and shatters his career high in catch%.Also, once again, to anticipate the most common Chambers Defense... before you blame Chambers' lack of performance on his QB (for some reason, everyone always blames it on his QBs), remember that Lee Evans has put up catch%s of 64%, 53%, and 60% with guys like J.P. Losman and Kelly Holcomb. Torry Holt has put up consistantly high catch%s with Warner, Bulger, Fitzpatrick, and Jamie Martin. Anquan Boldin has produced with Jeff Blake, Josh McCown, Kurt Warner, and Matt Leinart. Quality WRs produce, it's as simple as that.

With that said, there is a little bit of Chambers backlash going on right now. Chambers was the Kevan Barlow of 2006, the guy who everyone loved who just blew up in everyone's face, and as a result, lots of people refuse to draft him. I think he can definitely present value as a WR3, simply because no other WR3 in the league is going to get as many looks as Chambers will get, and with that many looks he'll have to provide SOMETHING. As long as you keep your expectations very low, Chambers probably will not disappoint as badly as he did last year- remember, a 39% catch% was every bit as much of an aberration as a 60% catch% would have been.

65/850/7

 

[shadyridr]

Stay away. Has put up one good half in his entire career. Has nobody to throw to him. And the coaches may feed Ginn the ball more to prove their pick was the right one. I wouldnt touch Chambers even as a WR3.

50 rec, 750 yds, 6 tds

 

[identikit]

(KFFL) Jeff Darlington, of the Miami Herald, reports Miami Dolphins WR Chris Chambers is moving from the Z position to X receiver, which should allow him more space to exploit mismatches. Head coach Cam Cameron says Chambers has embraced the change through the initial stages of workouts. Chambers said several factors led to his disappointing 2006 season, but said lack of continuity in the offense and trust was chief reasons. Chambers said trust has been resolved. He also takes comfort knowing Cameron's offense with the San Diego Chargers was just as prolific with QB Philip Rivers in 2006 as it was with QB Drew Brees in 2005. Brees left for the New Orleans Saints after the 2005 season. Chambers describes his new role in the offense as "freedom," and his goals for the 2007 season are to finish with close to 80 catches and 10 touchdowns.

Ok...'x receiver'...Is that like slot receiver?

Id

 

[blkgolf23]

I won't draft him unless I can get him in the 10th round or lower.

65/875/5 td's

 

[The Ref]

I'm not a fan of CC for reasons mentioned above, but this could be a classic situation where he burnt so many FF players last year he could represent a value this year.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Last year's catch percentages for the Miami Dolphins:

Chris Chambers - 38.3

Wes Welker - 67

Marty Booker - 61.1

Randy McMichael - 64.6

I don't see how any rational person could blame Chambers' abysmal catch percentage on the qb play when other players on the same team SIGNIFICANTLY outperformed him.

That said, that was a low year even by the minimal standards Chambers typically sets. His career catch percentage is closer to 50% so he could represent some decent value in drafts this year. I would refuse to have this guy as my #1 wr but he could make for a solid #3.

 

[zamboni]

I'm not a fan of CC for reasons mentioned above, but this could be a classic situation where he burnt so many FF players last year he could represent a value this year.

Exactly what I'm thinking.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

If you believe in superstitions then Chris Chambers is the new Eric Moulds.

His best seasons came in years 1, 3, 5.

His worst seasons came in years 2, 4, 6.

Next year is year 7, an odd year

Year Rec Yds TD

2001 48 883 7

2002 52 734 3

2003 64 963 11

2004 69 898 7

2005 82 1118 11

2006 59 677 4

Take it for what it's worth..

 

[SSOG]

If you believe in superstitions then Chris Chambers is the new Eric Moulds.

His best seasons came in years 1, 3, 5.

His worst seasons came in years 2, 4, 6.

Next year is year 7, an odd year

Year Rec Yds TD

2001 48 883 7

2002 52 734 3

2003 64 963 11

2004 69 898 7

2005 82 1118 11

2006 59 677 4

Take it for what it's worth..

But his best seasons weren't 1, 3, 5... they were 3, 4, 5.

 

[nygiants56]

Stay away. Has put up one good half in his entire career. Has nobody to throw to him. And the coaches may feed Ginn the ball more to prove their pick was the right one. I wouldnt touch Chambers even as a WR3.50 rec, 750 yds, 6 tds

he is nothing more than fools gold.as an offensive coordinator in Dan Diego the past 5 seasons, Cam Cameron never had a WR go to a Pro Bowl.in fact, only 1 WR eclipsed 69 catches during his tenure as OC in San Diego: David Boston ( 70)with either Brees or Rivers at QB. Now he coaches an offense with a glaring need at the QB position, and a piecemeal offensive line.. He isn't coaching L. Tomlinson anymore..I wouldn't touch Chris Chambers or any Dolphins player for that matter

 

[FreeBaGeL]

If you believe in superstitions then Chris Chambers is the new Eric Moulds.

His best seasons came in years 1, 3, 5.

His worst seasons came in years 2, 4, 6.

Next year is year 7, an odd year

Year Rec Yds TD

2001 48 883 7

2002 52 734 3

2003 64 963 11

2004 69 898 7

2005 82 1118 11

2006 59 677 4

Take it for what it's worth..

But his best seasons weren't 1, 3, 5... they were 3, 4, 5.

Heh whoops, year 4 was better than year 1 by 15 yards. Nevertheless, he still follows the Moulds up and down from year to year trend.Year 1: Solid rookie campaign

Year 2: Significant dropoff

Year 3: Significant improvement

Year 4: Significant dropoff

Year 5: Significant improvement

Year 6: Significant dropoff

Not that it really means all that much, just something to note.

 

[rzrback77]

Chris Chambers has been a fairly productive fantasy wide receiver although being on the receiving end of passes from such non-productive QBs as Fiedler, Lucas, Griese, Frerotte and Harrington. Even worse, in only one of the previous five seasons has he kept the same QB for the entire season. Chambers is known as an inconsistent receiver that drops a lot of passes. Examining his list of QBs that threw him passes, and the number of coaching changes as well, could bear some responsibility for the inconsistency.

He is a player that I'll be targeting in 2007 as he comes off an underperforming season and he is establishing himself as the poster child for player bashing on the message board this off-season. But he finished 11th, 25th, and 7th among wide receivers the three seasons before last year. And over the past five years, he has averaged 65 receptions for 878 yards and 7 TDs. I'm predicting a positive bounce back for Chamber with

75 receptions for 1025 yards and 9 TDs

Exercise patience in drafting him and he'll provide value in 07.

 

[Swampy]

Chambers was brutal, and he will continue to be brutal if he runs the routes he ran last year. There were many deep routes and no qb could get him the ball. He was wide open on many occasions and the ball just never got there. Yet, as many pointed out he has a hard time catching the ball. Its almost like the ball has to have a backward spiral for him to catch it. I see him used in a profeciant (sp?) way this year that will lead to better numbers and more Td's. He is a fantastic grab as a number 3 wr where he can and should be drafted, but he will perform as a number 2.

65-920-8

 

[KING]

maybe one day the dolphins will finally discover just how bad chambers is. he's so bad, i'm surprised the falcons havn't tried to trade for him.

maybe trent green is the best QB for the phins. after all, he's use to having sorry wideouts.

66 900 13.6 7

 

[Yitbos69]

Does the signing of Trent Green move Chambers up or down?

76 1050 8

 

[Heinz 57]

Does the signing of Trent Green move Chambers up or down? 76 1050 8

I would say UP. He was the man for my FF team a few years back. He comes up alittle short in yardage, but he gets his TDs.68 1000 12

 

[mlball77]

A small bump (up) for Chambers and the MIA passing game with Green there now.

 

[Two Deep]

He will be cured of his "Randy Mossitis" and rebound for 85- 1050 10 tds.

 

[Wingnut]

I will never, EVER draft that piece of feces again.

That said, mark him down for about 800yds and about 6 tds.

 

[SSOG]

Does the signing of Trent Green move Chambers up or down? 76 1050 8

I firmly believe that Chambers' poor play was a result of Chris Chambers, and not of any QB issues he's dealt with (as I said, lots of WRs have done far more with far less). In addition, there are questions about how effective Green will be, and there's the new offense factor, too... and I'm actually a pretty big Daunte Culpepper fan, so I view Green as a downgrade from Culpepper, assuming he's finally over his knee problems. I wouldn't change my projections any, but I think the introduction of Trent Green makes them a lot more volatile- I think it makes Chambers' upside higher and his downside lower.

 

[kensat30]

With Trent Green in the picture, I think Chambers is due for a rebound year.

Chambers did have a low reception percentage last year, but the guy was constantly double covered, most of routes were run down the field, and he had Joey "can't hit a barn past 10 yards" Harrington slinging him the ball for most of the season. Who wouldn't suffer under those circumstances. For the most part of Chambers career he has played on a defensive minded, run first team, in a cold weather, outdoor division. The cards have been stacked against him for a long time now.

I don't think Chris Chambers will ever be a reception/yardage stud, but he does know how to score TDs. And although inconsistent, he can and will have some breakout weeks from time to time.

I'll go: 65/900/9

Solid #3 WR all year with one or two blowup weeks.

 

[kensat30]

Does the signing of Trent Green move Chambers up or down? 76 1050 8

I firmly believe that Chambers' poor play was a result of Chris Chambers, and not of any QB issues he's dealt with (as I said, lots of WRs have done far more with far less). In addition, there are questions about how effective Green will be, and there's the new offense factor, too... and I'm actually a pretty big Daunte Culpepper fan, so I view Green as a downgrade from Culpepper, assuming he's finally over his knee problems. I wouldn't change my projections any, but I think the introduction of Trent Green makes them a lot more volatile- I think it makes Chambers' upside higher and his downside lower.

Did you watch the Dolphin's at all last year? Cliche I know, but it's the truth. Culpepper had solid play for all of one half of one game, and he only succeeded because he was getting the ball out in 2 seconds to strictly underneath routes in 3+ WR sets. After about a half of play when he started trying to make reads and run a normal offense, everything fell apart and the knee was quickly to blame because he couldn't scramble around on it to buy time.You don't think Joey Harrington had an influence on Chamber's poor play? That statement is utterly ridiculous. Harrington was an upgrade over Culpepper simply because he is the master of the dump off pass. After a game or two of shell-shocked Cpep, the Dolphin's were thankful to have a guy in there that could complete ANY pass. Thanks Mariucci for that one. Honestly, how many times have you watched Harrington play during his career? I mean actually sat down and watched an entire game of his. The guy doesn't and cannot succeed as an NFL QB because he is inaccurate. Period. He can only make two throws. One within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, and one within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Anything past that and he is wildly inaccurate. Chris Chambers runs a lot of downfield, low percentage routes as is, and you throw an inaccurate Harrington into the mix...it's recipe for disaster.Trent Green actually has a pretty decent downfield arm. He's continually made a much less talented Eddie Kennison a better player by putting the ball in spots where he can get it. The guy averages 15+ ypc every single year for a reason: Trent Green. I think it would be pretty much impossible for Chambers to be in a worse situation compared to last year unless he and/or Green were seriously injured.

 

[SSOG]

Did you watch the Dolphin's at all last year? Cliche I know, but it's the truth. Culpepper had solid play for all of one half of one game, and he only succeeded because he was getting the ball out in 2 seconds to strictly underneath routes in 3+ WR sets. After about a half of play when he started trying to make reads and run a normal offense, everything fell apart and the knee was quickly to blame because he couldn't scramble around on it to buy time.You don't think Joey Harrington had an influence on Chamber's poor play? That statement is utterly ridiculous. Harrington was an upgrade over Culpepper simply because he is the master of the dump off pass. After a game or two of shell-shocked Cpep, the Dolphin's were thankful to have a guy in there that could complete ANY pass. Thanks Mariucci for that one. Honestly, how many times have you watched Harrington play during his career? I mean actually sat down and watched an entire game of his. The guy doesn't and cannot succeed as an NFL QB because he is inaccurate. Period. He can only make two throws. One within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, and one within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Anything past that and he is wildly inaccurate. Chris Chambers runs a lot of downfield, low percentage routes as is, and you throw an inaccurate Harrington into the mix...it's recipe for disaster.Trent Green actually has a pretty decent downfield arm. He's continually made a much less talented Eddie Kennison a better player by putting the ball in spots where he can get it. The guy averages 15+ ypc every single year for a reason: Trent Green. I think it would be pretty much impossible for Chambers to be in a worse situation compared to last year unless he and/or Green were seriously injured.

Aaaaaaaand there it is. Every time I talk about Chris Chambers, it's only a matter of time before someone asks whether I actually watch the Dolphins play.I'll give you the same answer I always give. Yes, I watch the Dolphins play. I live in South Florida. All of my best friends are Dolphins fans. The sports bar I go to is a dedicated Dolphins sports bar. I watch more Dolphins games than any other team except for the Broncos. I have seen Chambers play with Jay Fiedler, Ray Lucas, Brian Griese, A.J. Feeley, Gus Frerotte, Daunte Culpepper, and Joey Harrington. I have seen Welker and Booker put up better catch%s than Chambers (and a better ypc, to boot- so much for that "deep threat" arguement). Hell, Oronde Gadsden put up a catch% of 60.2% and 59.2% in his two full (or semi-full) seasons as the #1 WR with Fiedler. Do you remember Oronde Gadsden? I do, because I watch the Miami Dolphins play. I watched them play in 2002/2003 and said that Jay Fiedler wasn't the problem, and lo and behold, Miami brings in a long string of QBs, none of which have yet outperformed Jay Fiedler. I watched them in 2004/2005 and said that Chambers has horrible hands, and lo and behold, Chambers catches barely a third of the balls sent his way in 2006.I have watched the Miami Dolphins play. Chris Chambers' problems are not the fault of Jay Fiedler, A.J. Feeley, Brian Griese, Ray Lucas, Sage Rosenfels, Daunte Culpepper, or Joey Harrington. Chris Chambers' problems are not the fault of Dave Wannstadt or Nick Saban. Chris Chambers' problems are not the fault of Marty Booker, Wes Welker, or Derrius Thompson. I have heard it blamed on all of these guys at one point or another, but it's not true. Chris Chambers' problems are the fault of Chris Chambers.Before you talk about what a horrible QB Joey Harrington, you should go back and watch film of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Torry Holt still put up an acceptable catch% with him. You should watch film of J.P. Losman in his first year as a starter. Lee Evans still put up an acceptable catch% with him. Before talking about Gus Frerotte, you should probably do some research and see that Randy Moss, Rod Smith, Ed McCaffrey, Henry Ellard, Germane Crowell, and Johnnie Morton have all put up great numbers with Frerotte at the helm (Crowell, Smith, and Ellard all averaged 16+ yards per catch, too, so don't pretend that Frerotte couldn't play to Chambers' strengths and throw the deep ball from time to time, either).There have been millions of excuses made for Chambers in the past, but in the end, there is only one truth- studs produce. Period. Chris Chambers has never produced, so Chris Chambers can't be a stud. He's not the first supposedly good WR to play with bad QBs. He's not the first supposedly good WR to play in a bad system. He's just the first supposedly good WR to consistantly put up consistantly putrid stats in terms of catch% and yards per target.At this point, Chambers is what he is. An incredible athlete who happens to play the WR position despite running sloppy routes, having poor focus, and only having so-so hands. Unless he goes through an absolutely stunning transformation (not bagging groceries to league MVP stunning, but stunning nonetheless), the only way he's ever going to provide any fantasy value is just through sheer bulk of targets. Stranger things have happened, of course... but I'm not going to bet on it.

 

[JimboJim]

I wish I had sen more of Chambers play, so all I can really do is develop predictions for him based on statistical analysis.

Over the last four seasons, here are some of Chambers stats:

Targ Rec % Drops

2003 130 64 49 4

2004 132 69 53 4

2005 166 82 49 8

2006 154 59 38 8

To me, last year statistically looks like an abberation.

I think Chamber's looks might decrease from the last two seasons with Ginn in the mix. However, I think the addition of Green should get his ctach percentage at least back up to 50%.

2007 Prediction:

135 Targets

75 receptions

1100 yards

8 TDs

 

[bcr8f]

Does the signing of Trent Green move Chambers up or down? 76 1050 8

I firmly believe that Chambers' poor play was a result of Chris Chambers, and not of any QB issues he's dealt with (as I said, lots of WRs have done far more with far less). In addition, there are questions about how effective Green will be, and there's the new offense factor, too... and I'm actually a pretty big Daunte Culpepper fan, so I view Green as a downgrade from Culpepper, assuming he's finally over his knee problems. I wouldn't change my projections any, but I think the introduction of Trent Green makes them a lot more volatile- I think it makes Chambers' upside higher and his downside lower.

Even before the injury problems Culpepper was terrible in Minnesota. I haven't heard a good answer as to why but he was.

 

[Yitbos69]

Does the signing of Trent Green move Chambers up or down?

76 1050 8

I firmly believe that Chambers' poor play was a result of Chris Chambers, and not of any QB issues he's dealt with (as I said, lots of WRs have done far more with far less). In addition, there are questions about how effective Green will be, and there's the new offense factor, too... and I'm actually a pretty big Daunte Culpepper fan, so I view Green as a downgrade from Culpepper, assuming he's finally over his knee problems. I wouldn't change my projections any, but I think the introduction of Trent Green makes them a lot more volatile- I think it makes Chambers' upside higher and his downside lower.

Even before the injury problems Culpepper was terrible in Minnesota. I haven't heard a good answer as to why but he was.

One good reason would be the loss of his #1 WR! A guy he had been throwing to his whole career!2005 min | 7 | 139 216 64.4 1564 7.2

His problem in 2005 was INT's and those came because he was trying to force throws. He had a good completion %. And his Y/A of 7.2 was not that far off his career Avg. of 7.7.

IF he gets healthy he can still play in the NFL.

 

[kensat30]

Did you watch the Dolphin's at all last year? Cliche I know, but it's the truth. Culpepper had solid play for all of one half of one game, and he only succeeded because he was getting the ball out in 2 seconds to strictly underneath routes in 3+ WR sets. After about a half of play when he started trying to make reads and run a normal offense, everything fell apart and the knee was quickly to blame because he couldn't scramble around on it to buy time.You don't think Joey Harrington had an influence on Chamber's poor play? That statement is utterly ridiculous. Harrington was an upgrade over Culpepper simply because he is the master of the dump off pass. After a game or two of shell-shocked Cpep, the Dolphin's were thankful to have a guy in there that could complete ANY pass. Thanks Mariucci for that one. Honestly, how many times have you watched Harrington play during his career? I mean actually sat down and watched an entire game of his. The guy doesn't and cannot succeed as an NFL QB because he is inaccurate. Period. He can only make two throws. One within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, and one within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Anything past that and he is wildly inaccurate. Chris Chambers runs a lot of downfield, low percentage routes as is, and you throw an inaccurate Harrington into the mix...it's recipe for disaster.Trent Green actually has a pretty decent downfield arm. He's continually made a much less talented Eddie Kennison a better player by putting the ball in spots where he can get it. The guy averages 15+ ypc every single year for a reason: Trent Green. I think it would be pretty much impossible for Chambers to be in a worse situation compared to last year unless he and/or Green were seriously injured.

Aaaaaaaand there it is. Every time I talk about Chris Chambers, it's only a matter of time before someone asks whether I actually watch the Dolphins play.I'll give you the same answer I always give. Yes, I watch the Dolphins play. I live in South Florida. All of my best friends are Dolphins fans. The sports bar I go to is a dedicated Dolphins sports bar. I watch more Dolphins games than any other team except for the Broncos. I have seen Chambers play with Jay Fiedler, Ray Lucas, Brian Griese, A.J. Feeley, Gus Frerotte, Daunte Culpepper, and Joey Harrington. I have seen Welker and Booker put up better catch%s than Chambers (and a better ypc, to boot- so much for that "deep threat" arguement). Hell, Oronde Gadsden put up a catch% of 60.2% and 59.2% in his two full (or semi-full) seasons as the #1 WR with Fiedler. Do you remember Oronde Gadsden? I do, because I watch the Miami Dolphins play. I watched them play in 2002/2003 and said that Jay Fiedler wasn't the problem, and lo and behold, Miami brings in a long string of QBs, none of which have yet outperformed Jay Fiedler. I watched them in 2004/2005 and said that Chambers has horrible hands, and lo and behold, Chambers catches barely a third of the balls sent his way in 2006.

Ever heard of yards after the catch? Like in game one of last year when Welker had 4/67 and Chambers had 5/59. It was because Welker has the better hands right? Is that what the catch % numbers, targets, etc. tell you? Or maybe it was due to the fact that Welker continually caught balls within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage and was able to run the ball for another 10. That's what I saw from watching the game. That's what I saw all season long. Besides if dropping passes is such a huge factor in fantasy and NFL football, shouldn't TO be garbage? I mean correct me if I'm wrong here, but didn't TO drop the most passes of any WR last year? I don't hear people calling him a horrible WR, because he produces. Chris Chambers, in past years, has produced. Drops make up a small portion of "missed" targets. I mean have you seen game tape and actually counted targets and catches? They call a pass thrown 20 yards past a WR a target. They call a pass thrown 10 yards out of bounds a target. It's a very inexact science. Look at other top WRs on other teams with a disaster at QB, I think you will find that they all had poor catch % compared to league averages. You can't catch the ball when it is thrown 10 yards out of bounds. How did Tampa do last year in that category? Oakland? Cleveland? I'm guessing all those teams had poor WR play too from the statistics you are looking at...Looking at stats is one thing, analyzing them is totally different story. For a guy that watches a lot of Dolphin's football, I have a hard time believing that you would think that all Dolphin's WRs all run similar routes because of their ypc numbers. Furthermore, I find it utterly ridiculous that you think that Joey Harrington is an accurate QB when he throws the ball down field. I also find it strange that you don't notice that most of Chambers routes are run in double coverage. Marty Booker and Wes Welker did not see a lot of double coverage last season. Break out your NFL shortcuts on tivo and watch it again.Regarding Jay Fielder, I always thought he was an underrated QB while in Miami. More to the point though, Jay Fielder and most of the other QBs you mentioned weren't there in 2006 when Chambers was stinking up the joint! That's the whole argument. 2006. Guess what, Marty Booker and Wes Welker ALSO stunk up the joint in 2006. The 2006 Dolphin's passing game was horrible! You didn't even have to watch the games to realize that much. Who cares what the catch percentages, targets, etc. looked like in previous years, or even in 2006 for that matter, it's obvious to even the casual observer that no Dolphin WR was having a good year last year, Chambers included. The year before the 2006 train wreck, Chris Chambers was a freaking pro-bowler. When was the last time Welker, Booker, Thompson, whoever and their brother, etc. did anything in the Miami receiving game, let alone pro-bowl? Now it's time for you to cue in with the excuses for these guys who have never done anything in Miami. Because they forcefeed Chambers the ball? The only excuses I made for Chambers were for 2006, and mainly based on the theory that both Daunte Culpepper and Joey Harrington suck hardcore, especially for Chambers style of play.

Before you talk about what a horrible QB Joey Harrington, you should go back and watch film of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Torry Holt still put up an acceptable catch% with him. You should watch film of J.P. Losman in his first year as a starter. Lee Evans still put up an acceptable catch% with him. Before talking about Gus Frerotte, you should probably do some research and see that Randy Moss, Rod Smith, Ed McCaffrey, Henry Ellard, Germane Crowell, and Johnnie Morton have all put up great numbers with Frerotte at the helm (Crowell, Smith, and Ellard all averaged 16+ yards per catch, too, so don't pretend that Frerotte couldn't play to Chambers' strengths and throw the deep ball from time to time, either).

I think you are failing to realize the depth of Joey Harrington's suckiness. Compare Chambers to other WRs who played with this guy and look at their numbers. Don't show me catch %, targets, etc. show me numbers. TDs and yards win games in both fantasy and reality. Under Harrington that aren't any "real" numbers because Harrington can't pass the ball down field! I said once and I'll say it again, the guy is the master of the dump off and throw away pass. David Carr is another horrible QB with the same problem, but at least he can get the ball downfield within a 5 yard radius of Andre Johnson. And what good does a 65% completion percentage do for you anyways if you aren't passing for squat? Analyze the stats. I watch the games, and I can definitively tell that you draft position is the lone thing keeping both Carr and Harrigton in the NFL right now.Bottomline:#1 Joey Harrington is possibly the worst Qb in the NFL for fantasy WRs.#2 Culpepper was just as bad as Harrington in 2006.#3 Miami was not a good situation for fantasy WRs in 2006 period.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

SSOG, I hate to argue with you in another Dolphin thread but as someone who watches every Dolphin game myself I have to wonder if we were watching the same ones.

Bringing up Booker and Chambers' catch percentages comparative to each other is ludicrous, and saying that Booker's ypc being higher means he runs more vertical routes is even worse. Booker must've run 300 crossing routes last year within 5-7 yards of the line of scrimmage. I can't count the number of times the guy had a drag across the field, got the ball softly tossed to him and ran straight upfield for a solid 15 yard gain on a route that absolutely any WR in the league could've run just as well.

Welker? C'mon. The ONLY routes the guy ran were slants and ins. I'd be surprised if they even mixed outs in there, but certainly no streaks or corners or anything of that nature like Chambers found himself running often.

I'm not that big on Chambers this year. In fact, I gave him away fairly cheaply in a dynasty league. Yet having seen just about every snap of Dolphin football last year I just can't sit back and read some of these things..

 

[SSOG]

Besides if dropping passes is such a huge factor in fantasy and NFL football, shouldn't TO be garbage? I mean correct me if I'm wrong here, but didn't TO drop the most passes of any WR last year? I don't hear people calling him a horrible WR, because he produces. Chris Chambers, in past years, has produced. Drops make up a small portion of "missed" targets. I mean have you seen game tape and actually counted targets and catches? They call a pass thrown 20 yards past a WR a target. They call a pass thrown 10 yards out of bounds a target. It's a very inexact science. Look at other top WRs on other teams with a disaster at QB, I think you will find that they all had poor catch % compared to league averages. You can't catch the ball when it is thrown 10 yards out of bounds. How did Tampa do last year in that category? Oakland? Cleveland? I'm guessing all those teams had poor WR play too from the statistics you are looking at...

I said last year that the best Chambers could hope for would be a TO-like career arc- where your red zone presence becomes so strong that you overcome any poor catching skills with a ton of TDs.With that said, TO's catch% over the last 7 years have been 56%, 51%, 61%, 55%, 63%, 60%, and 67%. Chambers over the last 6 years have been 39%, 49%, 50%, 49%, 52%, and 53%. This is what is known as "night and day"- Owens has had 4 60+% seasons in 7 years (including 67% one year). Chambers has had 3 50+% seasons in 6 years, with a career high of 53%. No comparison.

Regarding Jay Fielder, I always thought he was an underrated QB while in Miami. More to the point though, Jay Fielder and most of the other QBs you mentioned weren't there in 2006 when Chambers was stinking up the joint! That's the whole argument. 2006. Guess what, Marty Booker and Wes Welker ALSO stunk up the joint in 2006. The 2006 Dolphin's passing game was horrible! You didn't even have to watch the games to realize that much. Who cares what the catch percentages, targets, etc. looked like in previous years, or even in 2006 for that matter, it's obvious to even the casual observer that no Dolphin WR was having a good year last year, Chambers included. The year before the 2006 train wreck, Chris Chambers was a freaking pro-bowler. When was the last time Welker, Booker, Thompson, whoever and their brother, etc. did anything in the Miami receiving game, let alone pro-bowl? Now it's time for you to cue in with the excuses for these guys who have never done anything in Miami. Because they forcefeed Chambers the ball? The only excuses I made for Chambers were for 2006, and mainly based on the theory that both Daunte Culpepper and Joey Harrington suck hardcore, especially for Chambers style of play.

Anyone can make the pro bowl if they're targeted 166 times. Look at his per-play numbers so you can filter out the noise. Also, Daunte Culpepper is one of the best long-ball throwers in the league. Harrington is one of the worst. How can they both suck for Chambers' style of play?

I think you are failing to realize the depth of Joey Harrington's suckiness. Compare Chambers to other WRs who played with this guy and look at their numbers. Don't show me catch %, targets, etc. show me numbers. TDs and yards win games in both fantasy and reality. Under Harrington that aren't any "real" numbers because Harrington can't pass the ball down field! I said once and I'll say it again, the guy is the master of the dump off and throw away pass. David Carr is another horrible QB with the same problem, but at least he can get the ball downfield within a 5 yard radius of Andre Johnson. And what good does a 65% completion percentage do for you anyways if you aren't passing for squat? Analyze the stats. I watch the games, and I can definitively tell that you draft position is the lone thing keeping both Carr and Harrigton in the NFL right now.Bottomline:#1 Joey Harrington is possibly the worst Qb in the NFL for fantasy WRs.#2 Culpepper was just as bad as Harrington in 2006.#3 Miami was not a good situation for fantasy WRs in 2006 period.

If you think that Harrington is the worst QB to pass through the league, then you've definitely got another thing coming.

SSOG, I hate to argue with you in another Dolphin thread but as someone who watches every Dolphin game myself I have to wonder if we were watching the same ones.Bringing up Booker and Chambers' catch percentages comparative to each other is ludicrous, and saying that Booker's ypc being higher means he runs more vertical routes is even worse. Booker must've run 300 crossing routes last year within 5-7 yards of the line of scrimmage. I can't count the number of times the guy had a drag across the field, got the ball softly tossed to him and ran straight upfield for a solid 15 yard gain on a route that absolutely any WR in the league could've run just as well.Welker? C'mon. The ONLY routes the guy ran were slants and ins. I'd be surprised if they even mixed outs in there, but certainly no streaks or corners or anything of that nature like Chambers found himself running often.I'm not that big on Chambers this year. In fact, I gave him away fairly cheaply in a dynasty league. Yet having seen just about every snap of Dolphin football last year I just can't sit back and read some of these things..

I wasn't bringing up Booker and Welker's ypcs to say that they were running a lot of deep routes, I was bringing them up to say that Chambers wasn't running nearly as many deep routes as advertised. I mean, if you're spending all of your time on deep routes, you don't end up with a lower ypc than the possession guys. It just doesn't happen. From the way the thread was going, it sounded like people were implying that Chambers was 30 yards down the field on every snap and that's why he didn't catch anything, and that simply wasn't the case.I apologize for not making myself more clear in the first place, because I see this has created several misunderstandings.

 

[jurb26]

Until the Mia Oline improves it's really going to be hard for Chambers to excel and do what he does best, get down the field and make plays. None of the QBs he has ever had throwing to him have been able to exploit his abilities properly and that doesn't look likely to change this year. Thats the bottom line. People can harp on target %s and useless stats all they want, this is what matters.

I'm curious to see how Ginn impacts this team. He is a real wild card and could open up things for Chambers if he is used properly. Still, the Oline just looks too weak to really support this offense again in 2007.

65 receptions, 890 yds, 7 TDs

 

[SSOG]

Until the Mia Oline improves it's really going to be hard for Chambers to excel and do what he does best, get down the field and make plays. None of the QBs he has ever had throwing to him have been able to exploit his abilities properly and that doesn't look likely to change this year. Thats the bottom line. People can harp on target %s and useless stats all they want, this is what matters.I'm curious to see how Ginn impacts this team. He is a real wild card and could open up things for Chambers if he is used properly. Still, the Oline just looks too weak to really support this offense again in 2007.65 receptions, 890 yds, 7 TDs

I don't think Ginn helps Chambers at all. I mean, all he can do is run deep routes- his route running is rudimentary at best, all he ever did in college was outrun everyone down the field. Having Ginn on the field doesn't open up the deep pass for Chambers, because (a) it just forces defenses to drop their coverage deeper, and (b) SOMEONE needs to run underneath routes in case the deep stuff isn't open, and it certainly isn't going to be the top-10 pick with no route running skill. If Chambers' element is the deep ball (and I'm still not convinced that it is), then having Ginn on the team only hurts him, because it takes him out of his element and puts him in the possession role.