Player Spotlight: Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans

Player Page Link: Chris Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections
  

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
  

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[msommer]

Hopefully a bit more consistent than last year. With the additions to the OL he should be.

Cautiously optimistic he can improve on last year so 275 rushes for 1300 yards. 40 receptions for 325 yards 8 total TDs

Should be in the RB 7-10 range with potential for more

 

[donkshow]

I hope he has a big year. 1800 total yards with 6-10 TD's.

All I ask for is a bit more consistency (as with anybody else that owns him). 3.4pts followed by 23.4pts followed by 5.6pts followed by 18.9pts doesn't do me much good.

But, as all CJ?K owners know. He can either win you the week, or he can lose you the week.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Lots of things to track that will affect Johnson's stock this summer:

- The new look OL with Levitre, Warmack, and maybe even Schwenke

- The size and content of Greene's role

- The development of Jake Locker

- The possibility that the Titans incorporate some read option looks into the offense.

While the last two years are pretty damning argument against plucking Johnson out of the RB2 tier in the 2nd round, the OL improvements alone are enough to talk yourself into taking him if you thought the line was as much to blame as he was for his poor stretch in 2011-2012.

 

[Bri]

He can't run between the tackles without confidence. With confidence he's very good between the tackles. I doubt he ever changes and is probably always going to be inconsistent for FF.

He's arguably the fastest or most explosive straight away runner in NFL history.

Many times he's more like Devin Hester or Dante Hall years ago wherein if you just don't let him see daylight you're OK, but if you show him a glimmer he's gone.

He's not a typical RB at all.

He overcame what looked like a career ending slump, made him seem like NFL's version of a one-hit wonder. I think he deserves some credit for that as do the Titans for sticking with him. I, for one, was calling for him to get replaced. He's mature now, took his NFL lumps and overcame; I'm curious about him in 2013.

He has been the Titans team or O. Will Moore and a young OC come up with an awesome scheme in their first offseason to plan? If they can make the passing game a concern for defenses, CJ could be in for a huge year. Hunter, Wright, and Britt should be able to open things up; it seems very likely.

I would predict 1400 yards and 10 TDs. He's so unique, I could oh so easily sway 1000 yards on this guy from like 800 to 1800.

 

[Banger]

To me CJ is the definition of a boom bust player and there is definitely some risk with him. He's the perfect RB2 if you can get him there and even though his ADP may rise into the RB10 range there are some FF players that can't stand him and will pass on him due to his reputation from the last 2 years alone.

For a CJ owner, Greene is the perfect non-threat RB addition that you want to see. Greene is what he is, a below average plodding RB that will be used for short yardage, some goal line runs and giving CJ a breather similar to Lendale a couple years back. Behind Greene they don't have anyone that will challenge CJ so he'll likely be the workhorse again.

The passing game and it's development as well as the improved line are reasons to think that he may have a bit more space to run. He can turn that crease into 7 points faster than anyone in the game. If the line is much better than expected and can open up big holes for him LOOK OUT.

250-1200-7

45-325-1

 

[Jason Wood]

It's hard for me not to let my views of the franchise overall and the coaching staff/personnel department shape my projections, and in this case I'm finding myself worried about Johnson. Not because I doubt his abilities, that's why I pitched him a a buy low candidate early last year on The Audible. But my skepticism is born more out of what I perceive to be a franchise that's aimless. I look at what they've done this offseason, and what's coming out of their mouths, and just can't view this a a franchise that's "got it right."

 

[Ghost Rider]

I just can't get excited about this guy and his chances for a big 2013. He is such a boom or bust player, and he is usually so damn costly, that having him as my RB1 would make me not very confident. I mean, this is a guy who ran for 4, 17, 24, 24, 51, 44, 28 and 56 in half of his games in 2012. And you can't count on him to rip off 80-yard touchdown runs in blowouts every other week like he did against the Bears last year, inflating his rushing total. Sure, his big games are awesome, but you want more consistency out of a number 1 RB and this guy just doesn't give you that. He'll probably still give you 1,200 rushing yards and 6-8 touchdowns, but it's hard to win a head to head fantasy league when your RB1 stinks every other week. On the flip side, he is great for points only leagues.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

The Oline was revamped. They brought in arguably one of the best interior OG/Oline in football with Andy Levitre. They drafted a kid who openly campaigned for them to draft him so he could work with the HC and that of course is Warmack, what a name for an OG. They drafted Brian Scwenke out of California who I expect to start at Center, he was a 2nd round pick IMO that they got later. Add in Delanie Walker, one of the best run blocking TEs in all of football and you have some serious beef for Mr Johnson to find holes and run for daylight.

-Thank God

275-1375-8Tds, 32-250 1600+ total yds, 8 TDs, nice find in the 2nd round.

 

[Jason Wood]

The Oline was revamped. They brought in arguably one of the best interior OG/Oline in football with Andy Levitre. They drafted a kid who openly campaigned for them to draft him so he could work with the HC and that of course is Warmack, what a name for an OG. They drafted Brian Scwenke out of California who I expect to start at Center, he was a 2nd round pick IMO that they got later. Add in Delanie Walker, one of the best run blocking TEs in all of football and you have some serious beef for Mr Johnson to find holes and run for daylight.

-Thank God

275-1375-8Tds, 32-250 1600+ total yds, 8 TDs, nice find in the 2nd round.

This wouldn't be the first time an offensive line was projected as materially improved (or depleted in other cases) based on free agent/draft additions (departures) only to see it turn out quite differently. I like Warmack, but I think signing a free agent guard like Levitre to that contract is exactly the kind of misstep that makes me doubt this current Titans regime has greatness in them.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

The Oline was revamped. They brought in arguably one of the best interior OG/Oline in football with Andy Levitre. They drafted a kid who openly campaigned for them to draft him so he could work with the HC and that of course is Warmack, what a name for an OG. They drafted Brian Scwenke out of California who I expect to start at Center, he was a 2nd round pick IMO that they got later. Add in Delanie Walker, one of the best run blocking TEs in all of football and you have some serious beef for Mr Johnson to find holes and run for daylight.

-Thank God

275-1375-8Tds, 32-250 1600+ total yds, 8 TDs, nice find in the 2nd round.

This wouldn't be the first time an offensive line was projected as materially improved (or depleted in other cases) based on free agent/draft additions (departures) only to see it turn out quite differently. I like Warmack, but I think signing a free agent guard like Levitre to that contract is exactly the kind of misstep that makes me doubt this current Titans regime has greatness in them.

Oh wow, you're the guy who starts all these. I understand your logic here but how is it bad for the team to help their $50M investment? They should have done it years ago but the fact is they upgraded the interior something fierce. Levitre has 2 young highly skilled guys to work with and shape inside. I believe folks might see a few more of these long runs we saw 3 and 4 years ago. I don't believe Johnson is slower, just was not happy about getting hit at the point of attack every time.

I see so many folks banking on guys with nowhere near the upside as we have seen form Chris Johnson. I know he has disappointed but not everyone can be as consistent and HoF worthy as Curtis Martin. Too much talent and speed for me to pass on Johnson after the top 4-5 RBs are off the board.

Great player threads, decided to finally join in the debate, looking forward to these.

 

[msommer]

Just because they paid Levitre a ton of money doesn't mean Levitre is not going to improve their line. Funny argument, that.

Didn't Steve Hutchison get a good contract when he changed clubs the first time?

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Just because they paid Levitre a ton of money doesn't mean Levitre is not going to improve their line. Funny argument, that.

Didn't Steve Hutchison get a good contract when he changed clubs the first time?

Did you catch Spiller's YPC last year? Both Fred Jackson and Spiller looked like All Pros at different points the last 2-3 seasons. Levitre was rated very high those same years, he gets a RB behind him now that again has some jets like Spiller and I believe you are going to see some inspired run blocking. Not sure if you meant Levitre's contract doesn't mean much but I agree it means nothing in my evaluation either.

 

[Jason Wood]

Just because they paid Levitre a ton of money doesn't mean Levitre is not going to improve their line. Funny argument, that.

Didn't Steve Hutchison get a good contract when he changed clubs the first time?

Just to make sure I'm not being misunderstood, the choice to pay Levitre that money speaks to a broader issue i have with the Titans franchise and their approach. It speaks of an organization that's not rebuilding the right way.

But in terms of Levitre specifically, I don't see any evidence that he is a major upgrade for Chris Johnson. Even if you think he was worth the money, it's for his skills as a pass blocker. PFF graded Levitre as an off-the-charts pass blocker, but actually he had a negative value as a run blocker.

 

[mjr]

CJ can be just as inconsistent with match-ups as he can be with week to week performances. He put a shellacking on Buffalo's 31st run defense with 2 TDs and nearly 200 yards and struggled against the top 10 as you would typically expect of any RB. If that was the gist of Chris Johnson's abilities, then we'd all know what to do with him. But when he puts up stinkers against the bottom Ds and rips off 140 or 150 yards and a score against the stout, figuring out how to use him in fantasy leagues becomes a maddening gamble that gets real old real fast. How on Earth do you project a future performance on a guy like this?

About the only thing you can count on for CJ is that he's probably good for 1000 yards on the ground, a ballpark of 40 receptions and at least 200 to 400 yards receiving. While past performance once indicated the odds are good he'll score about 10 times at least, 2011's Lincoln-like 4 score performance and last year's half-dozen TDs pretty much negated any guarantees in that department.

With the additions to the O-line and a plodding Greene to take some of the pounding off, I'm willing to give CJ some benefit of the doubt in the yardage department with 1324 yards on the floor. I also have a feeling the improved efforts on the line will give Greene the advantage in the zone, so I don't expect CJ to spike back up in TDs, placing him at 7. I'll go with 34 receptions for 213 yards .

Summary: 285 attempts, 4.6 average for 1324 yards rushing. 34 receptions, 6.3 average, 213 yards receiving.

While these might be nice stats for a low RB1 solid RB2, the manner in which CJ will go about amassing these stats will in all probability be brutal, exciting and brutal again.

If you can get him as a #3 RB in dynasty leagues, jump on it like a sack of gold.

Take caution drafting him as your #2 RB in redrafts and try to hedge possible losses with a few more sleeper RB picks.

If you draft him as your #1 either way, I say you're nuts.

 

[donkshow]

I'm a big CJ fan. I know that he can go for 16-43-0 or 21-198-2 on any given week. I just have to build the rest of my team knowing that. Try and get more consistent players to make up for his stinkers.

I am definitely liking the OL upgrades and hoping Johnson runs with confidence this year. Woot.

 

[Banger]

I'm a big CJ fan. I know that he can go for 16-43-0 or 21-198-2 on any given week. I just have to build the rest of my team knowing that. Try and get more consistent players to make up for his stinkers.

I am definitely liking the OL upgrades and hoping Johnson runs with confidence this year. Woot.

I'm a big CJ fan. I know that he can go for 16-43-0 or 21-198-2 on any given week. I just have to build the rest of my team knowing that. Try and get more consistent players to make up for his stinkers.

I am definitely liking the OL upgrades and hoping Johnson runs with confidence this year. Woot.

I think that's a strong point when building a roster...I like you don't like all boom-bust players and prefer to build a stable consistent base and then sprinkle some homerun hitters in there to give you the upside to win weeks with just one breakout performance. CJ is the perfect guy to play that role IMO.

 

[donkshow]

I'm a big CJ fan. I know that he can go for 16-43-0 or 21-198-2 on any given week. I just have to build the rest of my team knowing that. Try and get more consistent players to make up for his stinkers.

I am definitely liking the OL upgrades and hoping Johnson runs with confidence this year. Woot.

I'm a big CJ fan. I know that he can go for 16-43-0 or 21-198-2 on any given week. I just have to build the rest of my team knowing that. Try and get more consistent players to make up for his stinkers.

I am definitely liking the OL upgrades and hoping Johnson runs with confidence this year. Woot.

I think that's a strong point when building a roster...I like you don't like all boom-bust players and prefer to build a stable consistent base and then sprinkle some homerun hitters in there to give you the upside to win weeks with just one breakout performance. CJ is the perfect guy to play that role IMO.

I've stated in another thread that if you go out and build your team with Josh Freeman, Charles, CJ, Julio, Wallace, Cruz and V. Davis, you'll have weeks where you double your opponents score and weeks where they double you.

Whereas if you go out and surround CJ with consistent players like: Ryan, Rice, Thomas, Wayne, Witten, you'll be solid.

I used # of games >10 or <10 pts in 0.5 PPR when using those players near the top. I realize if you actually have either of those teams you'd be in very nice shape regardless.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Chris Johnson, even in his heyday, was never the kind of guy I felt comfortable drafting in the first round. In Round 1 it's not about uncovering value, it's about consistency. And a boom-or-bust guy at the top of your roster can wind up being the difference between making the playoffs and missing them.

This is the first year I can remember since his rookie season that his ADP places him comfortably outside Round 1, so this is the first time I've thought about him from a pure value proposition. And I suspect there are enough owners who have been burned by CJ the past two seasons (even though he's put up nearly 3,000 all-purpose yards in that time) that they won't touch him at almost any price. To me, that's the definition of value.

My biggest impediment to predicting a big rebound season from him is the state of the air game in Tennessee. They're like the Brazil of the NFL: they're the passing attack of the future, and always will be. Locker doesn't seem ready to make the leap to elite to me, though some of that has been on an offensive game plan that's not tailored to his abilities. Britt was an out-and-out disappointment last year. Wright seems like a guy who's well-suited to a #2 role, not so much a featured WR. Washington will be 30 this year. And their one true secret weapon upped sticks to the Rams.

Bottom line, if CJ starts showing flashes of his 2009 self, you can bet defenses will start stacking eight in the box and daring Locker to beat them. And I'm not confident he can do that.

He'll turn 28 this season which, for a back who makes his living on speed and quickness, is getting up there, but I'd like to think he's got one more CJ-like season in him. The good news is, a guy who's just as likely to finish RB15 as he is to finish RB5 is getting drafted much closer to the former than the latter this year, which makes him an excellent value proposition to pair with a more consistent RB1 like McCoy or Lynch. If he stays down around that ADP I'll be targeting him in most leagues in which it pays to go RB/RB.

Projection: 272 rushes, 1,265 yds, 8 TD; 46 rec., 325 yds, 2 TD.

 

[msommer]

Just because they paid Levitre a ton of money doesn't mean Levitre is not going to improve their line. Funny argument, that.

Didn't Steve Hutchison get a good contract when he changed clubs the first time?

Just to make sure I'm not being misunderstood, the choice to pay Levitre that money speaks to a broader issue i have with the Titans franchise and their approach. It speaks of an organization that's not rebuilding the right way.

But in terms of Levitre specifically, I don't see any evidence that he is a major upgrade for Chris Johnson. Even if you think he was worth the money, it's for his skills as a pass blocker. PFF graded Levitre as an off-the-charts pass blocker, but actually he had a negative value as a run blocker.

Wouldn't it be a reasonable assumption that Levitre was better in run blocking than the third stringers that were in as OGs last year, though?

I suppose time will tell.

 

[Bri]

Just because they paid Levitre a ton of money doesn't mean Levitre is not going to improve their line. Funny argument, that.

Didn't Steve Hutchison get a good contract when he changed clubs the first time?

Just to make sure I'm not being misunderstood, the choice to pay Levitre that money speaks to a broader issue i have with the Titans franchise and their approach. It speaks of an organization that's not rebuilding the right way.

But in terms of Levitre specifically, I don't see any evidence that he is a major upgrade for Chris Johnson. Even if you think he was worth the money, it's for his skills as a pass blocker. PFF graded Levitre as an off-the-charts pass blocker, but actually he had a negative value as a run blocker.

They could be awesome real quick. I don't believe it will happen this year, but it sure is possible; A top RB, bookend tackles, three thoroughbred WRs, top 10 pick at QB, arguably the best blocking TE, and legend Marty Moore designing an offense.

If you were going to add to the O you might not add a WR like Hunter, but chances are you'd have added interior linemen and backup RBs and a TE.

CJ is erratic. Britt is quite possibly going to be the most talented WR in jail edging out Rae Carruth and Jimmy Smith. Moore is old. Locker is inexperienced and quite imperfect at this point. It could easily be argued their great tackles lost a step since being first team all-pro and second team all-pro. There's tons of faults with these guys....but I don't think an NFL GM will do anything. A GM surely could make some moves, but NFL GMs usually don't in situations like this.

Take Britt-At his price, who are they going to sign that has that much talent? Top RBs are so rare and CJ surely has rare speed, what was their option? Steven Jackson? Excellent Tackles are hard to find. Even if you want to make a move, who is available and how can they afford it?

Their D makes me angry. Your Eagles stole our DL coach then got rid of him, but I swear he took the heart of the D with him and other teams took most of the good players.

The Titans Guards were not good, like almost terrible. GB Bruce Matthews for finally "getting it" as a coach and improving them as the season wore on. Levitre or "Joe from the sandwich shop" is an improvement.

Palmer hasn't been a good choice to ever coach anything more than QBs. That was a disaster very similar to his previous teams. Moore setting up a young guy is almost beautiful to see after the Palmer experience.

If their D is any good, Griffin will not lead or seem to lead the team in tackles each week and he won't seem to cover WRs and somehow stop the run each play. Playing in Ed Reed and Polamalu's conference makes it hard to be considered awesome at Safety, but he has had to put a cape on and it's utterly ridiculous. Munchak has discussed playing three safeties in 2013. I don't know how. I don't care. I want Griffin to get 5 tackles on the year not lets play more Safeties.

They had Jason jones who had four sacks in a game once. They had Haynesworth when he was awesome. They had awesome motor guy Vandenbosch. They had a sweet DL and now they have Derrick Morgan who has zero help.

The only one left to love is Verner who still isn't coached right and goes for every possible INT but OMG is he fun to watch.

Tulloch got 63rd best player in league and went to play for his old DC. Cortland reunited with the Fish.

I don't know that the GM could have done much with the O, so I'd disagree with you there. On D, totally agree and wish they'd have drafted 10 new players to play with Griffin.

 

[cstu]

They could be awesome real quick. I don't believe it will happen this year, but it sure is possible; A top RB, bookend tackles, three thoroughbred WRs, top 10 pick at QB, arguably the best blocking TE, and legend Marty Moore designing an offense.

Bri - if by any chance you aren't in marketing, you should be.

 

[Bri]

They could be awesome real quick. I don't believe it will happen this year, but it sure is possible; A top RB, bookend tackles, three thoroughbred WRs, top 10 pick at QB, arguably the best blocking TE, and legend Marty Moore designing an offense.

Bri - if by any chance you aren't in marketing, you should be.

lol good one

 

[donkshow]

All things considered, I think he'll finish along the lines of:

290/1380/9

40/300/2

 

[FUBAR]

Chris Johnson, even in his heyday, was never the kind of guy I felt comfortable drafting in the first round. In Round 1 it's not about uncovering value, it's about consistency. And a boom-or-bust guy at the top of your roster can wind up being the difference between making the playoffs and missing them.

This is the first year I can remember since his rookie season that his ADP places him comfortably outside Round 1, so this is the first time I've thought about him from a pure value proposition. And I suspect there are enough owners who have been burned by CJ the past two seasons (even though he's put up nearly 3,000 all-purpose yards in that time) that they won't touch him at almost any price. To me, that's the definition of value.

My biggest impediment to predicting a big rebound season from him is the state of the air game in Tennessee. They're like the Brazil of the NFL: they're the passing attack of the future, and always will be. Locker doesn't seem ready to make the leap to elite to me, though some of that has been on an offensive game plan that's not tailored to his abilities. Britt was an out-and-out disappointment last year. Wright seems like a guy who's well-suited to a #2 role, not so much a featured WR. Washington will be 30 this year. And their one true secret weapon upped sticks to the Rams.

Bottom line, if CJ starts showing flashes of his 2009 self, you can bet defenses will start stacking eight in the box and daring Locker to beat them. And I'm not confident he can do that.

He'll turn 28 this season which, for a back who makes his living on speed and quickness, is getting up there, but I'd like to think he's got one more CJ-like season in him. The good news is, a guy who's just as likely to finish RB15 as he is to finish RB5 is getting drafted much closer to the former than the latter this year, which makes him an excellent value proposition to pair with a more consistent RB1 like McCoy or Lynch. If he stays down around that ADP I'll be targeting him in most leagues in which it pays to go RB/RB.

Projection: 272 rushes, 1,265 yds, 8 TD; 46 rec., 325 yds, 2 TD.

I'm a Titans fan and don't buy this for a second, haven't heard too many people say it either. Locker might be a decent starter, but he'll never be Air McNair and I doubt he's ever in the top 10 of starting QBs in the league. I hope he can manage the game with CJ leading the way. They have talent at WR, but I just don't see them being a passing oriented offense. Frankly, I hated the Hunter pick.

 

[msommer]

The Hunter pick was all about Britt, nothing more

 

[Bri]

The good news is, a guy who's just as likely to finish RB15 as he is to finish RB5 is getting drafted much closer to the former than the latter this year, which makes him an excellent value proposition to pair with a more consistent RB1 like McCoy or Lynch.

.Marshawn has four seasons with 750 or less and four with more.

McCoy had an excellent year two years ago, but his other three were certainly not 1st round FF draft type stats.

That's not consistency.

CJ averages 1377 and without his 2k he probably averages 1200 per year.

 

[msommer]

The good news is, a guy who's just as likely to finish RB15 as he is to finish RB5 is getting drafted much closer to the former than the latter this year, which makes him an excellent value proposition to pair with a more consistent RB1 like McCoy or Lynch.

.Marshawn has four seasons with 750 or less and four with more.

McCoy had an excellent year two years ago, but his other three were certainly not 1st round FF draft type stats.

That's not consistency.

CJ averages 1377 and without his 2k he probably averages 1200 per year.

I do think it is relatively fair to knock CJ on his game to game consistency. Perhaps that was what Mr. Irrelevant was alluding to

 

[Anarchy99]

In terms of fantasy ppg (0 ppr), Johnson ranked 16th in the 2010-2012 timeframe (for backs that played at least 10 games). I don't see him having a return to major prominence. Things may have gotten better in terms of the OL, but I am not yet sold on Locker or the passing attack. Depending on the health of other backs across the league, I see Johnson ending the season in the RB 10-15 range, maybe one or two spots higher if things click better than I think they will.

280-1250-6

40-250-0

 

[fightingillini]

Chris Johnson is a tease. The guy can take it to the house on any play. But I am worried about Shonn Greene's role, even though Greene is a mediocre NFL RB, I think he's going to take enough away from Johnson to limit his upside. I would accept him as my RB2, but I wouldn't pay a second round price for him.....I would opt for elite WR/QB talent in Round 2 and look to piece RB2 production with later picks.

255 car, 1075 yds, 7 TD

36 rec, 275 yds, 1 TD

 

[Bri]

In terms of fantasy ppg (0 ppr), Johnson ranked 16th in the 2010-2012 timeframe (for backs that played at least 10 games). I don't see him having a return to major prominence. Things may have gotten better in terms of the OL, but I am not yet sold on Locker or the passing attack. Depending on the health of other backs across the league, I see Johnson ending the season in the RB 10-15 range, maybe one or two spots higher if things click better than I think they will.

280-1250-6

40-250-0

pretty good stats for having a horrible slump mixed in there

 

[Biabreakable]

The main problem with the Titans offense over the past 3 seasons is that it has not run enough offensive plays.

2010 474pa 406ra 907lays
2011 584pa 376ra 984plays is more respectable. Hassellhoff managing most of this season.
2012 540pa 378ra 957plays
So the team has averaged 949plays over the last 3 seasons.

League average
2012 1027.6
2011 1017.8
2010 1010

So the team has been about 70 plays behind the average team the last 3 seasons.

Locker does not look ready to take a huge step forward so what I see the Titans plan being is to run the ball more with Green and Johnson in tandem. Improvements on the offensive line will hopefully be effective enough that the team can be closer to a 50/50 run pass ratio than they have been. The way to do that is to have Green add 100 or so carries to the offense at the reduction of a similar number of pass attempts. I think they will try to run the ball 450 times and if effective pass the ball 480-540 if they can increase their plays closer to 1000. If Green can be effective on 1st downs that might help them accomplish that.

Chris Johnson
240-320 4.5ypc 1180-1440yds 5-8TD 36-70rec 260-504yds 0-3TD

Shonn Green
80-220 4.2ypc 336-924 3-9TD not much receiving
Both players will not hit their highs obviously. If Johnson gets close to 300 carries then Green will not likely have much more than 100. The high carries for Green would be if Johnson missed time or Green was amazingly effective.

 

[Tau837]

Just because they paid Levitre a ton of money doesn't mean Levitre is not going to improve their line. Funny argument, that.

Didn't Steve Hutchison get a good contract when he changed clubs the first time?

Just to make sure I'm not being misunderstood, the choice to pay Levitre that money speaks to a broader issue i have with the Titans franchise and their approach. It speaks of an organization that's not rebuilding the right way.

But in terms of Levitre specifically, I don't see any evidence that he is a major upgrade for Chris Johnson. Even if you think he was worth the money, it's for his skills as a pass blocker. PFF graded Levitre as an off-the-charts pass blocker, but actually he had a negative value as a run blocker.

I'm failing to grasp your point here. Last season, the Titan's C and OTs performed reasonably well, but their OGs were awful.

Levitre was viewed as the top OG on the market. He just turned 27. They signed him to a 6 year contract, so if he sees the full contract, he will be a free agent at age 32. This is a lot different than signing Steve Hutchinson at age 34 (although it is true that Hutchinson was PFF's 4th ranked LG in his last season in Minnesota).

And even though pass blocking is Levitre's strength, he is still an upgrade over Hutchinson as a run blocker. And improving pass blocking could help Locker's performance, which in turn could open things up more for Johnson.

And the Titans used the #10 pick on Warmack, who by all accounts is an excellent run blocker.

Your criticism seems off base in this case. Now, if you think the Titans make a lot of bad moves, which is indicative of a poor franchise, maybe you're right. But none of the moves mentioned here seem to support that position.

 

[Biabreakable]

I agree with JWB in regards to the Levitre signing. I don't really follow Jasons criticism of the move either. To me the Titans free'd up cap space by moving on from Hutchinson and they needed to spend money in free agency to meet their cap minimum of salaries. The team already prioritized the LG position when they signed Hutchinson but that was no longer a solution. Levitre was considered a top 10 free agent pick up. They signed him and improved their offense.

Now if the point is that the Titans still have not solved their main problem, which is the need of a QB I agree. But Alex Smith was not going to be a solution nor were any of the other options available. I think getting one of the top free agents at a position that you can count on for the next 5-6 years it makes a lot of sense. The same move was made by the Vikings when they signed Hutch from Seattle which enabled Chester Taylor to have a 1300yd season. Johnson is quite a bit better than Taylor but I see this move having a similar positive effect on the offense.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I agree with JWB in regards to the Levitre signing. I don't really follow Jasons criticism of the move either. To me the Titans free'd up cap space by moving on from Hutchinson and they needed to spend money in free agency to meet their cap minimum of salaries. The team already prioritized the LG position when they signed Hutchinson but that was no longer a solution. Levitre was considered a top 10 free agent pick up. They signed him and improved their offense.

Now if the point is that the Titans still have not solved their main problem, which is the need of a QB I agree. But Alex Smith was not going to be a solution nor were any of the other options available. I think getting one of the top free agents at a position that you can count on for the next 5-6 years it makes a lot of sense. The same move was made by the Vikings when they signed Hutch from Seattle which enabled Chester Taylor to have a 1300yd season. Johnson is quite a bit better than Taylor but I see this move having a similar positive effect on the offense.

I'm not going to debate whether Alex Smith was going to be a solution, because people have their minds set on him. Rather, most reasonable minds would look at Locker's performance and say "any serviceable QB -- in other words not Locker -- would materially improve the team's performance and also CJ's potential fantasy performance."

The reality is that Locker absolutely kills CJ's production, because defenses know that Locker blows chunks.

 

[donkshow]

I agree with JWB in regards to the Levitre signing. I don't really follow Jasons criticism of the move either. To me the Titans free'd up cap space by moving on from Hutchinson and they needed to spend money in free agency to meet their cap minimum of salaries. The team already prioritized the LG position when they signed Hutchinson but that was no longer a solution. Levitre was considered a top 10 free agent pick up. They signed him and improved their offense.

Now if the point is that the Titans still have not solved their main problem, which is the need of a QB I agree. But Alex Smith was not going to be a solution nor were any of the other options available. I think getting one of the top free agents at a position that you can count on for the next 5-6 years it makes a lot of sense. The same move was made by the Vikings when they signed Hutch from Seattle which enabled Chester Taylor to have a 1300yd season. Johnson is quite a bit better than Taylor but I see this move having a similar positive effect on the offense.

I'm not going to debate whether Alex Smith was going to be a solution, because people have their minds set on him. Rather, most reasonable minds would look at Locker's performance and say "any serviceable QB -- in other words not Locker -- would materially improve the team's performance and also CJ's potential fantasy performance."

The reality is that Locker absolutely kills CJ's production, because defenses know that Locker blows chunks.

CJ's production started to pick up last season after Locker went down and Hasselbeck came in.

 

[JPeso]

1200 / 7; 50 / 400 / 2 = 264 PPR, 16.5 PPG

 

[Biabreakable]

I agree with JWB in regards to the Levitre signing. I don't really follow Jasons criticism of the move either. To me the Titans free'd up cap space by moving on from Hutchinson and they needed to spend money in free agency to meet their cap minimum of salaries. The team already prioritized the LG position when they signed Hutchinson but that was no longer a solution. Levitre was considered a top 10 free agent pick up. They signed him and improved their offense.

Now if the point is that the Titans still have not solved their main problem, which is the need of a QB I agree. But Alex Smith was not going to be a solution nor were any of the other options available. I think getting one of the top free agents at a position that you can count on for the next 5-6 years it makes a lot of sense. The same move was made by the Vikings when they signed Hutch from Seattle which enabled Chester Taylor to have a 1300yd season. Johnson is quite a bit better than Taylor but I see this move having a similar positive effect on the offense.

I'm not going to debate whether Alex Smith was going to be a solution, because people have their minds set on him. Rather, most reasonable minds would look at Locker's performance and say "any serviceable QB -- in other words not Locker -- would materially improve the team's performance and also CJ's potential fantasy performance."

The reality is that Locker absolutely kills CJ's production, because defenses know that Locker blows chunks.

Well I can relate to that. I am a Vikings fan.

I just do not think Alex Smith was really even an option. Nor was anyone else that was available. Palmer or Fitzpatrick I suppose. I do not even know if that is what Jason was getting at.

Adding a quality guard will help Locker or whatever QB they end up going with next. If this puts them in a poor cap situation down the road there are ways out of that. Seems like a solid move to me.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

The good news is, a guy who's just as likely to finish RB15 as he is to finish RB5 is getting drafted much closer to the former than the latter this year, which makes him an excellent value proposition to pair with a more consistent RB1 like McCoy or Lynch.

.Marshawn has four seasons with 750 or less and four with more.

McCoy had an excellent year two years ago, but his other three were certainly not 1st round FF draft type stats.

That's not consistency.

CJ averages 1377 and without his 2k he probably averages 1200 per year.

I do think it is relatively fair to knock CJ on his game to game consistency. Perhaps that was what Mr. Irrelevant was alluding to

100% correct. I want nothing to do with a first-rounder whose weekly scoring line reads 4, 29, 7, 15, 35. Give me the 18, 22, 14, 13, 23 of a Lynch or Foster ten times out of ten and let me save the "swing for the fences" mentality for the 6th, 7th, 8th rounds.

My biggest impediment to predicting a big rebound season from him is the state of the air game in Tennessee. They're like the Brazil of the NFL: they're the passing attack of the future, and always will be. Locker doesn't seem ready to make the leap to elite to me, though some of that has been on an offensive game plan that's not tailored to his abilities. Britt was an out-and-out disappointment last year. Wright seems like a guy who's well-suited to a #2 role, not so much a featured WR. Washington will be 30 this year. And their one true secret weapon upped sticks to the Rams.

I'm a Titans fan and don't buy this for a second, haven't heard too many people say it either. Locker might be a decent starter, but he'll never be Air McNair and I doubt he's ever in the top 10 of starting QBs in the league. I hope he can manage the game with CJ leading the way. They have talent at WR, but I just don't see them being a passing oriented offense. Frankly, I hated the Hunter pick.

Heh. Sorry, I read a lot of econ and finance, and "Brazil's the country of the future, and always will be" is a polite way of saying "they've got plenty of potential, but never perform". That's pretty much how I feel about the Titans' offense - all these so-called "hidden gems" over the past few years that wound up being more like unpolished rocks - so I think you and I actually agree here.

 

[msommer]

Technically though, Brazil has performed well the past seven to ten years. Not China well but there has been a lot worse places for growth,

/hijack

 

[Bri]

The good news is, a guy who's just as likely to finish RB15 as he is to finish RB5 is getting drafted much closer to the former than the latter this year, which makes him an excellent value proposition to pair with a more consistent RB1 like McCoy or Lynch.

.Marshawn has four seasons with 750 or less and four with more.

McCoy had an excellent year two years ago, but his other three were certainly not 1st round FF draft type stats.

That's not consistency.

CJ averages 1377 and without his 2k he probably averages 1200 per year.

I do think it is relatively fair to knock CJ on his game to game consistency. Perhaps that was what Mr. Irrelevant was alluding to

100% correct. I want nothing to do with a first-rounder whose weekly scoring line reads 4, 29, 7, 15, 35. Give me the 18, 22, 14, 13, 23 of a Lynch or Foster ten times out of ten and let me save the "swing for the fences" mentality for the 6th, 7th, 8th rounds.

(You switched from McCoy to Foster)

McCoy missed a few games and had six games with less than 50 yards rushing

Foster had 38, 46, 165, and 15 yards for the FF playoffs.

Lynch was probably the most consistent of any RB in the NFL last year (maybe ADP).

You are not getting CJ in the 6th 7th or 8th and unless you have a top pick, you aren't getting ADP.

CJ's career is far more consistent and productive than Lynch's or McCoy's. Foster is an excellent alternative you put in here, but I don't think drafts will play out like that. I think he goes shortly after ADP and the people picking later will still have to pick between CJ, Lynch, and McCoy.

http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2013/adp?COUNT=100&POS=*&CUTOFF=5&FRANCHISES=-1&IS_PPR=-1&IS_KEEPER=0&IS_MOCK=-1&TIME=

The super consistent back that you seem to imply will be available either won't be available or you overstated things.

Look at Lynch's gamelogs for his career. They don't exactly scream consistency http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LyncMa00/gamelog//

According to that link, CJ is going 22nd. IMO that is a way better pick than McCoy at 9th. (Going by that ADP page) one could conceivably have Foster and CJ and I think that'd be a fantastic start to a draft.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Johnson has the ability to put on a clinic, but could just as well finish in the teens. I think the line may be improved this year, but the have also (in my opinion) upgraded the backup RB position. I think Johnson will still see most of the carries, but he will be kept fresh as well, to try to increase the possibility of the home run threat. In the end, I will predict the following:

275-1237-7 TD Rush

42-273-1 TD Rec

There is upside for much more though, and his floor will not be much lower than this.

 

[karmarooster]

 

[Mister CIA]

My biggest concern regarding Chris Johnson is his heart and commitment to the game. I don't subscribe to the reasoning that Jake Locker's lack of development/performance could adversely affect CJ's fantasy prospects. Loosely speaking, the fantasy production of RBs is inverse to the fantasy production of the QB. Consider, for instance, the 2013 versions of Adrian Peterson, CJ Spiller and Jamaal Charles (and imagine MJD without the foot injury).

Meanwhile look at the fantasy production from RBs supporting the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees over the past several years.

When is the last time a Tier 1 QB and Tier 1 RB lined up in the same backfield? ... Favre/Green, Warner/Faulk, ??/??.

 

[msommer]

My biggest concern regarding Chris Johnson is his heart and commitment to the game. I don't subscribe to the reasoning that Jake Locker's lack of development/performance could adversely affect CJ's fantasy prospects. Loosely speaking, the fantasy production of RBs is inverse to the fantasy production of the QB. Consider, for instance, the 2013 versions of Adrian Peterson, CJ Spiller and Jamaal Charles (and imagine MJD without the foot injury).

Meanwhile look at the fantasy production from RBs supporting the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees over the past several years.

When is the last time a Tier 1 QB and Tier 1 RB lined up in the same backfield? ... Favre/Green, Warner/Faulk, ??/??.

I guess what you are saying is that CJxk is a slam dunk, the?

 

[karmarooster]

I'm very optimistic about CJ this year for a few reasons:

• Additions to the offensive line should improve the line to it's 2008-2010 form - consider that the linemen coming from Buffalo were able to support CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson on an offense as crappy as the Bills, with a QB as bad as Fitzpatrick, and a defense as bad as the Bills (all benchmarks the Titans can meet)
• Shonn Green is going to approximate the Lendale White role from CJ's rookie season
• Jake Locker, while he probably sucks, doesn't suck that much worse than Vince Young
• I've seen rumblings that the Titans will run more zone-reads with CJ + Locker, and incorporate CJ more into the passing game as he was during his first few years

Consider Vince Young's 2009 season, in which he started 10 games when CJ blew up:

• 1,900 yards, 59%, 7.3 YPA, 10 TDs to 7 INTs, and oh yeah 55 rushes for 281 yards

Now line him up with Jake Locker's 2012 season, in which he started 11 games:

• 2,175 yards, 56%, 6.9 YPA (but a career 7.2 YPA), 10 TDs to 11 INTs, and oh yeah, 41 rushes for 291 yards.

My point is that the bar isn't very high - Locker needs only to be a below-average QB, who can throw on the run, and play the zone read.

Another thing I like about this situation is the addition of Delanie Walker. I was looking threw the thread on him this morning and saw two points of view - he's going to be a nice pass catching TE, or he's not and won't go above 30-40 receptions. I don't think the Titans signed a veteran like Walker to use him like Jimmy Graham. He's going to play in-line and let the talented WRs they have (Britt, Wright, Washington, Williams) play out wide (remember Alge Crumpler? like that).

ETA - In light of some further discussion in the Delanie Walker thread, he appears to be the pass-catching TE and Stevens is the hybrid TE/T like Crumpler. In any case, Walker is a better blocking TE than Cook, and less of pass-catcher, so I still see his addition as a boost for CJ.

I'd LOVE to see the Titans run as the primary set some kind of pistol-offense with Walker as an in-line TE, CJ next to the QB in the backfield, and then 3 WRs spreading the field. I think that's the kind of formation that creates difficulties for the defense, because if they counter with a nickel, suddenly you've got CJ running in space, in favorable situations (due to the zone read), against only 2 LBs, with a capable blocking TE leading the way. That exactly the scenario in which CJ is most dangerous.

I have been very harsh on CJ the last two years, but haven't had him on any of my teams - I think some of the negativity against him is from owners who suffered through a terrible 2011 and a "bad" 2012. But he still has 4.5 to 4.9 YPC potential (last year and his rookie year), still plays on a team where he's clearly the best player and the offensive will run through him.

For carries - his rookie year (250) and last year (275) set a fairly clear range. Lendale had 200 carries during CJ's rookie year, and I think it's fair that Shonn Green be penciled in for ~150-175 assuming he's healthy.

260 carries x 4.9 YPC = 1,274 yards

52 receptions x 7 YPC = 364 yards (1,600 total)

7 TDs

(~250 points PPR)

His ADP ranges somewhat dramatically, basically from the 1.12/2.01 turn all the way to the 2.12/3.01 turn, and into the 3rd round depending on scoring. Because Locker is 'good enough' and more importantly, the right style of QB for CJ to flourish next to, I think CJ is a great value particularly in comparison to Ridley and MJD. I don't like him as a RB1 because he's too inconsistent, but he's an amazing RB2, and a RB1 in a pinch if you got Graham or Megatron early, and can add some steady PPR WRs like Antonio Brown and Danny Amendola to smooth out the ups and downs.

 

[rizzler]

if I get him and TRich from the 10spot, which seems likely as of now, I will #### happiness

 

[karmarooster]

if I get him and TRich from the 10spot, which seems likely as of now, I will #### happiness

at 1.10 and 2.03 yes that's entirely possible. And I don't think you'd be giving up ground at RB to any other potential Round 1 + Round 2 RB pair.

 

[lbouchard]

if I get him and TRich from the 10spot, which seems likely as of now, I will #### happiness

at 1.10 and 2.03 yes that's entirely possible. And I don't think you'd be giving up ground at RB to any other potential Round 1 + Round 2 RB pair.

Picking at 1.07 in a 12 teamed I got Shady and CJ to start.

 

[rizzler]

if I get him and TRich from the 10spot, which seems likely as of now, I will #### happiness

at 1.10 and 2.03 yes that's entirely possible. And I don't think you'd be giving up ground at RB to any other potential Round 1 + Round 2 RB pair.

if I get him and TRich from the 10spot, which seems likely as of now, I will #### happiness

at 1.10 and 2.03 yes that's entirely possible. And I don't think you'd be giving up ground at RB to any other potential Round 1 + Round 2 RB pair.

Picking at 1.07 in a 12 teamed I got Shady and CJ to start.

I prefer TRich to shady, but thats still awesome.

Richardson is slipping to late 1st territory, which is beautiful for me. pairing him w CJ would be redonkulous.