Player Spotlight: Corey Dillon (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Corey Dillon, RB, New England Patriots

Player Page Link: Corey Dillon Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[Blackjacks]

Maroney will be the man in NE by week 6. Dillon looked very old last year. I think (as long as Maroney gets in training camp on time) he'll start to get some carries and then take over early on.

I do however think Corey could still be a descent option due to being a good goal line back

projections

200 carries

850 yards

8 td's

15 catches

180 yards

0 td's

 

[Jason Wood]

Corey Dillon is currently has an ADP of RB23, despite a material skills erosion in 2005. Last season's YPC of 3.5 was nearly a yard below his prior career average, and was the worst single season mark of his career. He also missed four games, the most of his career, and will turn 32 this season. The Patriots offensive line lost another piece (Ashworth) and the team added rookie powerhouse Laurence Maroney.

Would you honestly feel comfortable drafting Dillon as a RB2? Many will point to last year's RB16 ranking (in 12 games played) as evidence that he's still valuable. But his 12 TD rushes is contraindicative to his career TD per touch mark. If we're to assume some regression (upward) in his YPC and yardage, you also have to assume some regression (downward) in his TD output.

We saw from Curtis Martin in 2004 that older backs can still be highly productive given the right circumstances, but how far would Dillon have to fall to justify the risk of rostering him?

225 carries
875 yards
3.9 YPC
8 rushing TDs
20 receptions
120 yards receiving
0 receiving TDs
148 fantasy points
RB28 (FBG scoring)

 

[dcbreber]

Corey: 235 att, 918 yds, 3.9 avg. 9 rush td, 20 rec 133 rec yds, 1 rec td. Pretty close to what JW has I see. 3rd-4th round pick would be ok, but 5th round could be a good value and if you can get him as a flex that would definitely be great. These projections are very conservative, and I'd think he'd be more likely to regain form and get over 1200 yards or play less than 10 games than these numbers being produced again.

 

[jpapadub]

I think that everyone is pretty much forcasting conservatively here. Maroney will be good in the future, but he is coming in fresh off of one of the NCAAs best O-lines and although he is pretty much NFL-ready, he will be experiencing a bit of a learning curve. Dillon carries the experience and ability of a proven veteran RB and when healthy has proven to be a top 10 RB. Dillon has been training hard and has at the very least one more good season before Maroney is ready to carry the lion's share of the load.

The Pats rushed 439 times last year when they were the 2nd ranked passing team and playing catch-up quite frequently. In 2004 NE had 524 rush attempts. This year will more than likely fall somewhere in between. I don't think 495 attempts (top 1/3 of the NFL) for one of the better offenses in the NFL is a bad estimate.

So there are really 2 questions here: 1.) What % of the carries are Dillon and Maroney going to see? and 2.) Can Dillon stay healthy?

Given a healthy Dillon (nothing in the offseason has shown he has any lingering issues) and a meager 55% of the team's carries, Corey could be a steal as a RB2 in most leagues.

You can't ignore the upside here.

Upside: 16 Games and 55% of the carries -- 272 carries, 1061 yards, 9 TDs / 25 rec, 180-200 yards, 2 TDs. If he can stay healthy, these won't be very difficult numbers to attain.

Downside: Numbers similar to previous posts. (which aren't bad numbers at his draft position)

There are worse players with bigger question marks to pick up when drafting RB24, that's for sure.

 

[rzrback77]

Jason stole most of my points, but I'll mostly concur and stress that Corey Dillon looked very slow and old last year. If all of his old and slow was injury related, he could still be productive and present reasonable value at RB 28 or so.

Jerome Bettis in 2004 had 250 carries for 941 yards and 13 TDs, so it is possible, but....

I think CD looked slow last year BEFORE he was injured

His FF production was tied to his huge (for him) number of TDs

His ypc was only 3.5 last year

The Pats OL is not expected to be as good

Maroney is an outstanding prospect

I think he starts some early, fades to RBBC, and then to goal line specialist...

150 carries 575 yards 7 TDs 15 catches 100 yards no TDs

 

[Borat]

The Pats OL is not expected to be as good

3/5 of the starting offensive line (Light, Koppen, Gorin) were injured last year. They are all returning this season. Last year's rookies, Logan Mankins and Nick Kaczur, got valuable starting experience last year. Stephen Neal continues to improve. Russ Hochstein is still around to provide depth.

How can this line not improve from last season?

 

[David Yudkin]

I think that everyone is pretty much forcasting conservatively here. Maroney will be good in the future, but he is coming in fresh off of one of the NCAAs best O-lines and although he is pretty much NFL-ready, he will be experiencing a bit of a learning curve. Dillon carries the experience and ability of a proven veteran RB and when healthy has proven to be a top 10 RB. Dillon has been training hard and has at the very least one more good season before Maroney is ready to carry the lion's share of the load.

The Pats rushed 439 times last year when they were the 2nd ranked passing team and playing catch-up quite frequently. In 2004 NE had 524 rush attempts. This year will more than likely fall somewhere in between. I don't think 495 attempts (top 1/3 of the NFL) for one of the better offenses in the NFL is a bad estimate.

So there are really 2 questions here: 1.) What % of the carries are Dillon and Maroney going to see? and 2.) Can Dillon stay healthy?

Given a healthy Dillon (nothing in the offseason has shown he has any lingering issues) and a meager 55% of the team's carries, Corey could be a steal as a RB2 in most leagues.

You can't ignore the upside here.

Upside: 16 Games and 55% of the carries -- 272 carries, 1061 yards, 9 TDs / 25 rec, 180-200 yards, 2 TDs. If he can stay healthy, these won't be very difficult numbers to attain.

Downside: Numbers similar to previous posts. (which aren't bad numbers at his draft position)

There are worse players with bigger question marks to pick up when drafting RB24, that's for sure.

IMO, the numbers here are a bit misleading. NE RB had 395 carries last year 473 carries the year before. If we split the difference, that's 434 carries. 55% would be 238 carries.And let's not forget that it's not like it's Dillon and Maroney and no one else. Patrick Pass and Kevin Faulk each have had 50 carries a year in recent years (in addition to playing on passing downs). IMO, they still will get a similar amount of work (or why bother having them on the team if they never play).

I happen to think the team will have 450 RB carries with Faulk getting 60 and Pass getting 40. That leaves 350 carries for Dillon and Maroney to divide up between them. If Dillon gets 55% and Maroney 45%, that would be 192 carries for Dillon. As you can see, the number of carries keeps dropping. I would say 60/40 is more likely, getting Dillon around 210 carries on the season.

While you say that there's no evidence to show that Dillon has any lingering injuries, I would say the opposite. There's no evidence to say that he will do any better this year than last year. Dillon was not himself last season, but there has not been a reason given or an injury disclosed. He was listed most of the year on the injury report with a calf injury, but calf injuries normally don't linger all season long especially if you rested it and didn't play on it (which he did in the middle of the season).

I would be higher on Dillon if it game out that he played the whole season with a high ankle sprain or a broken bone in his foot or something that we could point to as something that could heal.

And if Dillon were to miss time and Maroney stepped in and did very well, Dillon might assume the part time role and not Maroney.

 

[nygiants56]

Jason stole most of my points, but I'll mostly concur and stress that Corey Dillon looked very slow and old last year. If all of his old and slow was injury related, he could still be productive and present reasonable value at RB 28 or so.

Jerome Bettis in 2004 had 250 carries for 941 yards and 13 TDs, so it is possible, but....

I think CD looked slow last year BEFORE he was injured

His FF production was tied to his huge (for him) number of TDs

His ypc was only 3.5 last year

The Pats OL is not expected to be as good

Maroney is an outstanding prospect

I think he starts some early, fades to RBBC, and then to goal line specialist...

150 carries 575 yards 7 TDs 15 catches 100 yards no TDs

He's cooked..he looked very old and very slow last year, BEFORE the injury..

150-570-3

10-80-0

Maroney could be the opening day starter..

 

[tri-man 47]

An aging player with over 2,400 carries in his career and a solid replacement now on board:

200 carries, 760 yards, 6 TDs

 

[Borat]

Patrick Pass and Kevin Faulk each have had 50 carries a year in recent years (in addition to playing on passing downs).  IMO, they still will get a similar amount of work (or why bother having them on the team if they never play).

Faulk's carries will likely remain steady as he should remain entrenched as the 3rd down back, but Pass generally only runs the ball once in a great while or when everyone else is injured (which was the case last season). Pass enters training camp behind Dillon, Moroney, and Faulk on the depth chart, which is even further down on the depth chart than usual for Pass. He really is not even guaranteed a roster spot this season (I assume he'll be competing with Heath Evans for a spot, though I'd give Pass the edge there), but assuming he makes the team, he is extremely versatile (which means a great deal to Belichick), as he can line up at halfback or fullback, and he also does well on special teams as a return man and in coverage. This is why he'd remain on the team even if he doesn't get a similar amount of work as a running back, to address your last point that I've quoted ("they still will get a similar amount of work (or why bother having them on the team if they never play)."