Player Spotlight: Danny Amendola, WR, New England Patriots (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Danny Amendola, WR, New England Patriots

Player Page Link: Danny Amendola Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections
  

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
  

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Bamac]

The easy part: 6 rec/game; 68 yds/game; 0.4 TD/game

The hard part: 14 games.

 

[donkshow]

If he can stay healthy he'll tread WR1 territory. If not, it'll be the same thing as the last couple years. "Great when on the field, unfortunately, that doesn't happen".

The Patriots have a ton of injury-prone players in Amendola, Gronk and Hernandez. I expect some of the guys to really step up when these 3, inevitably, go down.

 

[fightingillini]

If Amendola can stay healthy (and that's a big if), the sky is the limit in NE. Will be a PPR monster, just like Welker.

Assuming 16 games......100 rec, 1150 yds, 6 TD

 

[fightingillini]

If Amendola can stay healthy (and that's a big if), the sky is the limit in NE. Will be a PPR monster, just like Welker.

Assuming 16 games......100 rec, 1150 yds, 6 TD

 

[msudaisy26]

If he can stay healthy he'll tread WR1 territory. If not, it'll be the same thing as the last couple years. "Great when on the field, unfortunately, that doesn't happen". The Patriots have a ton of injury-prone players in Amendola, Gronk and Hernandez. I expect some of the guys to really step up when these 3, inevitably, go down.

How exactly is breaking your forearm on a fluke play and missing the only games of your career equatate to being injury prone?

 

[JHuber77]

If he can stay healthy he'll tread WR1 territory. If not, it'll be the same thing as the last couple years. "Great when on the field, unfortunately, that doesn't happen". The Patriots have a ton of injury-prone players in Amendola, Gronk and Hernandez. I expect some of the guys to really step up when these 3, inevitably, go down.

How exactly is breaking your forearm on a fluke play and missing the only games of your career equatate to being injury prone?

Tell that to Ryan Matthews. Amendola has only played a full season once (2010)

 

[Ghost Rider]

If he can stay healthy he'll tread WR1 territory. If not, it'll be the same thing as the last couple years. "Great when on the field, unfortunately, that doesn't happen". The Patriots have a ton of injury-prone players in Amendola, Gronk and Hernandez. I expect some of the guys to really step up when these 3, inevitably, go down.

How exactly is breaking your forearm on a fluke play and missing the only games of your career equatate to being injury prone?

He has played 12 games in the last two seasons. Like it or not, there are major question marks as to if he can hold up to the pounding he will take if he really does play the Welker role. Say what you want about Welker, but he was tough and durable; Amendola has not been very durable so far in the NFL, so we will see.

I think, if healthy, he can put up 80+ catches, close to 1,000 yards and 6-8 touchdowns, but that is an awfully big "if."

 

[msudaisy26]

If he can stay healthy he'll tread WR1 territory. If not, it'll be the same thing as the last couple years. "Great when on the field, unfortunately, that doesn't happen". The Patriots have a ton of injury-prone players in Amendola, Gronk and Hernandez. I expect some of the guys to really step up when these 3, inevitably, go down.

How exactly is breaking your forearm on a fluke play and missing the only games of your career equatate to being injury prone?

He has played 12 games in the last two seasons. Like it or not, there are major question marks as to if he can hold up to the pounding he will take if he really does play the Welker role. Say what you want about Welker, but he was tough and durable; Amendola has not been very durable so far in the NFL, so we will see.

I think, if healthy, he can put up 80+ catches, close to 1,000 yards and 6-8 touchdowns, but that is an awfully big "if."

Gronk played 16 games in 2011 and 11 games last year

 

[Ghost Rider]

If he can stay healthy he'll tread WR1 territory. If not, it'll be the same thing as the last couple years. "Great when on the field, unfortunately, that doesn't happen". The Patriots have a ton of injury-prone players in Amendola, Gronk and Hernandez. I expect some of the guys to really step up when these 3, inevitably, go down.

How exactly is breaking your forearm on a fluke play and missing the only games of your career equatate to being injury prone?

He has played 12 games in the last two seasons. Like it or not, there are major question marks as to if he can hold up to the pounding he will take if he really does play the Welker role. Say what you want about Welker, but he was tough and durable; Amendola has not been very durable so far in the NFL, so we will see.

I think, if healthy, he can put up 80+ catches, close to 1,000 yards and 6-8 touchdowns, but that is an awfully big "if."

Gronk played 16 games in 2011 and 11 games last year

My bad. I got confused and thought you were talking about Amendola since this thread is about him. Dang it.

But the argument can be made right now that Gronk is injury-prone, although it is best to continue that in his thread rather than muddying up the Amendola thread.

 

[Tanner9919]

it's doubtful Amendola,or anyone else for that matter,can withstand the punishment given out to Welker over the years. the catches over the middle, etc,The guy is made of stone. I doubt anyone can take those hits as well as he did..

even on his best day Amendola is a fraction of what Welker is..what I mean is that ,sure,the potential is there for Amendola to duplicate WW's numbers,but given his inability to stay healthy, I highly doubt he'll come remotely close to producing Welker's stats..could be the biggest bust of the year.

I would be optimistic if I put him down for 50 catches this season..but I doubt he even gets that many.

45/495/4

fool's gold..trade him if you have him,his value can't possibly be any higher than it is right now..

 

[Run It Up]

I too am worried about his durability, but it is not deterring me from taking him on draft day. I think his upside is just too high especially with his current draft value (avg outside of WR20 in my recent ppr mocks).I've been able to get him as my WR2 reliably and in some rare occasions as my WR3.

 

[zamboni]

I think it's universally accepted that durability is his issue, but let's face it - anyone can get injured at any time. A key reason that Amendola gets injured is that he plays with reckless abandon - hard to not like that.

Injury risk is definitely something to be concerned with, but his situation is very appealing - HoF QB that excels in short-to-mid range crossing routes where Amendola thrives, not much WR competition to steal looks, two great TEs to draw coverage away (but also ailing/injury prone themselves). Under these situations alone, I also think Amendola will be a target monster - maybe not Welker-type, but not too much a drop from that.

My guess if he can at least play 14 games: 95-1100-7.

 

[Run It Up]

I think it's universally accepted that durability is his issue, but let's face it - anyone can get injured at any time. A key reason that Amendola gets injured is that he plays with reckless abandon - hard to not like that.

I agree completely, a couple of his injuries have been freak occurrences as well. But it should also be recognized that Welker's over the middle work requires a toughness (mental and physical) I think few WRs have. I have my projections around there as well if he stays healthy.

 

[meyerj31]

it's doubtful Amendola,or anyone else for that matter,can withstand the punishment given out to Welker over the years. the catches over the middle, etc,The guy is made of stone. I doubt anyone can take those hits as well as he did..

even on his best day Amendola is a fraction of what Welker is..what I mean is that ,sure,the potential is there for Amendola to duplicate WW's numbers,but given his inability to stay healthy, I highly doubt he'll come remotely close to producing Welker's stats..could be the biggest bust of the year.

I would be optimistic if I put him down for 50 catches this season..but I doubt he even gets that many.

45/495/4

fool's gold..trade him if you have him,his value can't possibly be any higher than it is right now..

I agree that Amendola isn't going to work as well over the middle as Welker... but I think they're going to be moving him around. Amendola was split wide on a lot of plays at the beginning of last year. I don't think he's going to be put directly in Welker's role, because few people could have done that as well as he did.

 

[stbugs]

If he can stay healthy he'll tread WR1 territory. If not, it'll be the same thing as the last couple years. "Great when on the field, unfortunately, that doesn't happen". The Patriots have a ton of injury-prone players in Amendola, Gronk and Hernandez. I expect some of the guys to really step up when these 3, inevitably, go down.

How exactly is breaking your forearm on a fluke play and missing the only games of your career equatate to being injury prone?

He has played 12 games in the last two seasons. Like it or not, there are major question marks as to if he can hold up to the pounding he will take if he really does play the Welker role. Say what you want about Welker, but he was tough and durable; Amendola has not been very durable so far in the NFL, so we will see.

I think, if healthy, he can put up 80+ catches, close to 1,000 yards and 6-8 touchdowns, but that is an awfully big "if."

Gronk played 16 games in 2011 and 11 games last year

Gronk did also miss an entire year in college due to a back injury, which is a little disconcerting considering the articles in the past few days about him possibly needed back surgery as well. Also, don't forget that while he did play 16 games in 2011, his ankle injury in the playoffs sure as heck didn't help the Pats in the Super Bowl.

I wouldn't call him injury prone, especially if he doesn't have any issues to start this season, but he has 2 seasons under his belt in the past 4 years missing significant time. In 2011 and 2012, he has had a huge impact on the Pats in the playoffs. The back issue worries me the most. The forearm and ankle are fluke type injuries that can happen to anyone and unfortunately the forearm injury wasn't handle so well (probably shouldn't have tried to play in playoffs) and the infection was tough. Knowing he missed all of 2009 with a back issue and seeing articles about maybe needing more back surgery is not real good news for a bruiser like Gronk.

 

[Jason Wood]

I'm not just concerned about his durability, I'm also concerned about his complete lack of ability to get deep either after the ball's in his hands or in routes. This is a guy who, in his only fully healthy season, averaged 8.1 yards per reception. He's averaged less than 9 yards per catch in four seasons. I know Welker was a low YPC guy, too, and ultimately it's about a volume thing for these guys, but I struggle with lightning striking twice in the same spot. To me Amendola has been called the poor man's Wes Welker for so long, that I really wonder if we're being too optimistic to think he can step into the same role and plug and play.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Jason, Amendola is sneaky fast at times and can actually get deep. The play was called back because of a penalty, but the first play of overtime vs. the 49ers last November showed that he can get deep:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=-K4cdN8dML8#t=103s

 

[Bamac]

I'm not just concerned about his durability, I'm also concerned about his complete lack of ability to get deep either after the ball's in his hands or in routes. This is a guy who, in his only fully healthy season, averaged 8.1 yards per reception. He's averaged less than 9 yards per catch in four seasons. I know Welker was a low YPC guy, too, and ultimately it's about a volume thing for these guys, but I struggle with lightning striking twice in the same spot. To me Amendola has been called the poor man's Wes Welker for so long, that I really wonder if we're being too optimistic to think he can step into the same role and plug and play.

Lightning often strikes twice in the same spot. We call these spots lightning rods. And the slot WR role in NE is a lightning rod for targets.

 

[Jason Wood]

I'm not just concerned about his durability, I'm also concerned about his complete lack of ability to get deep either after the ball's in his hands or in routes. This is a guy who, in his only fully healthy season, averaged 8.1 yards per reception. He's averaged less than 9 yards per catch in four seasons. I know Welker was a low YPC guy, too, and ultimately it's about a volume thing for these guys, but I struggle with lightning striking twice in the same spot. To me Amendola has been called the poor man's Wes Welker for so long, that I really wonder if we're being too optimistic to think he can step into the same role and plug and play.

Lightning often strikes twice in the same spot. We call these spots lightning rods. And the slot WR role in NE is a lightning rod for targets.

Indeed, that's why I can't plant my flagpole on a claim that Amendola is going to bust. I just know that he won't be on any of my teams. Of course, Welker rarely was too and that was for a guy I actually expected to catch 100+ balls a year.

 

[jwb]

I'm not just concerned about his durability, I'm also concerned about his complete lack of ability to get deep either after the ball's in his hands or in routes. This is a guy who, in his only fully healthy season, averaged 8.1 yards per reception. He's averaged less than 9 yards per catch in four seasons. I know Welker was a low YPC guy, too, and ultimately it's about a volume thing for these guys, but I struggle with lightning striking twice in the same spot. To me Amendola has been called the poor man's Wes Welker for so long, that I really wonder if we're being too optimistic to think he can step into the same role and plug and play.

Lightning often strikes twice in the same spot. We call these spots lightning rods. And the slot WR role in NE is a lightning rod for targets.

I disagree. That's like saying the outside wr role is the TD lightning rod for them (Moss), or the TE's are the lightning rod. Were they before Gronk/Hernandez?

If anything, BB has shown he will play the hand he has. If he has Moss, he gets tons of love. If he has Welker, watch out for the slot. If he has awesome TE's, they get targets. If he has a solid RB, he'll lean on him. If not, it's full blown RBBC.

When welker was hurt, Edelman filled in nicely, but that was probably more because they already had the system and gameplans somewhat in place.

Basically, I don't expect Amendola to be Welker #2. I expect him to be Danny Amendola in NE. 65 catches, 600 yards, 4 td's, and miss some time for injury. Very disappointing for those that expected welker numbers.

 

[Bamac]

I disagree. That's like saying the outside wr role is the TD lightning rod for them (Moss), or the TE's are the lightning rod. Were they before Gronk/Hernandez? If anything, BB has shown he will play the hand he has. If he has Moss, he gets tons of love. If he has Welker, watch out for the slot. If he has awesome TE's, they get targets. If he has a solid RB, he'll lean on him. If not, it's full blown RBBC. When welker was hurt, Edelman filled in nicely, but that was probably more because they already had the system and gameplans somewhat in place. Basically, I don't expect Amendola to be Welker #2. I expect him to be Danny Amendola in NE. 65 catches, 600 yards, 4 td's, and miss some time for injury. Very disappointing for those that expected welker numbers.

Total projections are useless unless you specify how many games you expect him to play. In my leagues, we set weekly lineups. Also, you acknowledge that Edelman filled Welker's shoes pretty well. Do you really think the Pats' game plan will change dramatically with Amendola? Then why'd they pay him Welker-type money?

 

[stbugs]

I'm not just concerned about his durability, I'm also concerned about his complete lack of ability to get deep either after the ball's in his hands or in routes. This is a guy who, in his only fully healthy season, averaged 8.1 yards per reception. He's averaged less than 9 yards per catch in four seasons. I know Welker was a low YPC guy, too, and ultimately it's about a volume thing for these guys, but I struggle with lightning striking twice in the same spot. To me Amendola has been called the poor man's Wes Welker for so long, that I really wonder if we're being too optimistic to think he can step into the same role and plug and play.

Lightning often strikes twice in the same spot. We call these spots lightning rods. And the slot WR role in NE is a lightning rod for targets.

I disagree. That's like saying the outside wr role is the TD lightning rod for them (Moss), or the TE's are the lightning rod. Were they before Gronk/Hernandez?

If anything, BB has shown he will play the hand he has. If he has Moss, he gets tons of love. If he has Welker, watch out for the slot. If he has awesome TE's, they get targets. If he has a solid RB, he'll lean on him. If not, it's full blown RBBC.

When welker was hurt, Edelman filled in nicely, but that was probably more because they already had the system and gameplans somewhat in place.

Basically, I don't expect Amendola to be Welker #2. I expect him to be Danny Amendola in NE. 65 catches, 600 yards, 4 td's, and miss some time for injury. Very disappointing for those that expected welker numbers.

When did Edelman actually fill in? Welker played 16 games the last two years and 14/15 in 2009/2010. I looked at the logs and Edelman was 8-98, 3-20 and 3-72 in those 3 games Welker was hurt with no TDs. Not much at all. Only the first game was OK for 2010 Wes Welker coming off ACL, but even the first game wasn't a "good" game for 2009, 2011 and 2012 Welker.

As Jason said, I might not have Amendola on any of my teams because I have a feeling he will be valued like Welker and outside of Randy Moss, who was a pretty unique WR, no other WR in Tom Brady's past has been as good.

People in here mention the slot for Tom Brady is gold, well, that isn't really true. Wes Welker and Randy Moss for NE have been gold. From 2001-2006, the only top 30 finishes according to FBGs for NE WRs were #15 for 2001 Troy Brown and #22 2005 Deion Branch. Welker has been top 12 (non-PPR) in every year with Brady except 2010 when came back from ACL way earlier than anyone though he would. If Gronk and Hernandez are healthy, throw in Ridley having a solid 2012, I am not sure Amendola is a sure thing based on where he will be drafted.

 

[Bamac]

Aside from durability, precisely how is Amendola's game inferior to Welker's?

 

[jwb]

I disagree. That's like saying the outside wr role is the TD lightning rod for them (Moss), or the TE's are the lightning rod. Were they before Gronk/Hernandez? If anything, BB has shown he will play the hand he has. If he has Moss, he gets tons of love. If he has Welker, watch out for the slot. If he has awesome TE's, they get targets. If he has a solid RB, he'll lean on him. If not, it's full blown RBBC. When welker was hurt, Edelman filled in nicely, but that was probably more because they already had the system and gameplans somewhat in place. Basically, I don't expect Amendola to be Welker #2. I expect him to be Danny Amendola in NE. 65 catches, 600 yards, 4 td's, and miss some time for injury. Very disappointing for those that expected welker numbers.

Total projections are useless unless you specify how many games you expect him to play. In my leagues, we set weekly lineups.Also, you acknowledge that Edelman filled Welker's shoes pretty well. Do you really think the Pats' game plan will change dramatically with Amendola? Then why'd they pay him Welker-type money?

10-12 games. That's what I expect from Danny Amendola. A solid wr3 when he's playing.

As was just pointed out, Edelmen actually didn't fill in all that well - apparently, I just remembered the one 8-98 game he had filling in, and not the other two.

To answer your other "aside from durability what makes them different" question... well, the durability thing is huge on its own. But the other aspect is has Amendola really shown anything after the catch? I don't think he has. He catches the ball and that's prettymuch that. Not that Welker was a take it to the house guy, but he wasn't "catch and go right down" guy either. I do not see him becoming the exact same target machine that Welker was. He's simply not as good a player.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

You can drink Smirnoff, nothing wrong with it, does the same job and has the same AV as any other vodka. But if you don't want to wake up feeling like a train ran over you then you should really reach for the Ciroc.

 

[Jason Wood]

Aside from durability, precisely how is Amendola's game inferior to Welker's?

Well we don't know yet whether his game is inferior, in-line or superior. We do know that he's not been anything more than a glorified first down marker through four years as a receiver, but Welker's Miami days weren't much more impressive. I think the issue is that Amendola's ADP isn't going to allow for any of that uncertainty. You either believe his game is on par with Welker's and draft him or you opt to take someone else in that vicinity.

 

[Bamac]

I disagree. That's like saying the outside wr role is the TD lightning rod for them (Moss), or the TE's are the lightning rod. Were they before Gronk/Hernandez? If anything, BB has shown he will play the hand he has. If he has Moss, he gets tons of love. If he has Welker, watch out for the slot. If he has awesome TE's, they get targets. If he has a solid RB, he'll lean on him. If not, it's full blown RBBC. When welker was hurt, Edelman filled in nicely, but that was probably more because they already had the system and gameplans somewhat in place. Basically, I don't expect Amendola to be Welker #2. I expect him to be Danny Amendola in NE. 65 catches, 600 yards, 4 td's, and miss some time for injury. Very disappointing for those that expected welker numbers.

Total projections are useless unless you specify how many games you expect him to play. In my leagues, we set weekly lineups.Also, you acknowledge that Edelman filled Welker's shoes pretty well. Do you really think the Pats' game plan will change dramatically with Amendola? Then why'd they pay him Welker-type money?

10-12 games. That's what I expect from Danny Amendola. A solid wr3 when he's playing. As was just pointed out, Edelmen actually didn't fill in all that well - apparently, I just remembered the one 8-98 game he had filling in, and not the other two. To answer your other "aside from durability what makes them different" question... well, the durability thing is huge on its own. But the other aspect is has Amendola really shown anything after the catch? I don't think he has. He catches the ball and that's prettymuch that. Not that Welker was a take it to the house guy, but he wasn't "catch and go right down" guy either. I do not see him becoming the exact same target machine that Welker was. He's simply not as good a player.

Amendola is already a solid WR2 in ppr (and no one is excited about him in non ppr) when he plays. Neither Welker nor Amendola is dynamic with the ball in his hands. If Welker has higher YAC, it's because he's getting the ball with more space. And that makes sense -- he had far more talented receivers (including TE) around him than Amendola did. Only time will tell on the injuries, but it's easy to see that Amendola is a great fit to replace Welker.

 

[Bamac]

Aside from durability, precisely how is Amendola's game inferior to Welker's?

Well we don't know yet whether his game is inferior, in-line or superior. We do know that he's not been anything more than a glorified first down marker through four years as a receiver, but Welker's Miami days weren't much more impressive. I think the issue is that Amendola's ADP isn't going to allow for any of that uncertainty. You either believe his game is on par with Welker's and draft him or you opt to take someone else in that vicinity.

His ADP was WR23 in the SSLs. If he gives you 90% of Welker's production, he's top 12 in that format.

 

[Jason Wood]

I disagree. That's like saying the outside wr role is the TD lightning rod for them (Moss), or the TE's are the lightning rod. Were they before Gronk/Hernandez? If anything, BB has shown he will play the hand he has. If he has Moss, he gets tons of love. If he has Welker, watch out for the slot. If he has awesome TE's, they get targets. If he has a solid RB, he'll lean on him. If not, it's full blown RBBC. When welker was hurt, Edelman filled in nicely, but that was probably more because they already had the system and gameplans somewhat in place. Basically, I don't expect Amendola to be Welker #2. I expect him to be Danny Amendola in NE. 65 catches, 600 yards, 4 td's, and miss some time for injury. Very disappointing for those that expected welker numbers.

Total projections are useless unless you specify how many games you expect him to play. In my leagues, we set weekly lineups.Also, you acknowledge that Edelman filled Welker's shoes pretty well. Do you really think the Pats' game plan will change dramatically with Amendola? Then why'd they pay him Welker-type money?

10-12 games. That's what I expect from Danny Amendola. A solid wr3 when he's playing. As was just pointed out, Edelmen actually didn't fill in all that well - apparently, I just remembered the one 8-98 game he had filling in, and not the other two. To answer your other "aside from durability what makes them different" question... well, the durability thing is huge on its own. But the other aspect is has Amendola really shown anything after the catch? I don't think he has. He catches the ball and that's prettymuch that. Not that Welker was a take it to the house guy, but he wasn't "catch and go right down" guy either. I do not see him becoming the exact same target machine that Welker was. He's simply not as good a player.

Amendola is already a solid WR2 in ppr (and no one is excited about him in non ppr) when he plays.Neither Welker nor Amendola is dynamic with the ball in his hands. If Welker has higher YAC, it's because he's getting the ball with more space. And that makes sense -- he had far more talented receivers (including TE) around him than Amendola did.Only time will tell on the injuries, but it's easy to see that Amendola is a great fit to replace Welker.

This is what always perplexes me...I don't think we can say this.

Amendola ranks 63rd among all WRs in PPR/game over the last four years.

 

[Bamac]

I disagree. That's like saying the outside wr role is the TD lightning rod for them (Moss), or the TE's are the lightning rod. Were they before Gronk/Hernandez? If anything, BB has shown he will play the hand he has. If he has Moss, he gets tons of love. If he has Welker, watch out for the slot. If he has awesome TE's, they get targets. If he has a solid RB, he'll lean on him. If not, it's full blown RBBC. When welker was hurt, Edelman filled in nicely, but that was probably more because they already had the system and gameplans somewhat in place. Basically, I don't expect Amendola to be Welker #2. I expect him to be Danny Amendola in NE. 65 catches, 600 yards, 4 td's, and miss some time for injury. Very disappointing for those that expected welker numbers.

Total projections are useless unless you specify how many games you expect him to play. In my leagues, we set weekly lineups.Also, you acknowledge that Edelman filled Welker's shoes pretty well. Do you really think the Pats' game plan will change dramatically with Amendola? Then why'd they pay him Welker-type money?

10-12 games. That's what I expect from Danny Amendola. A solid wr3 when he's playing. As was just pointed out, Edelmen actually didn't fill in all that well - apparently, I just remembered the one 8-98 game he had filling in, and not the other two. To answer your other "aside from durability what makes them different" question... well, the durability thing is huge on its own. But the other aspect is has Amendola really shown anything after the catch? I don't think he has. He catches the ball and that's prettymuch that. Not that Welker was a take it to the house guy, but he wasn't "catch and go right down" guy either. I do not see him becoming the exact same target machine that Welker was. He's simply not as good a player.

Amendola is already a solid WR2 in ppr (and no one is excited about him in non ppr) when he plays.Neither Welker nor Amendola is dynamic with the ball in his hands. If Welker has higher YAC, it's because he's getting the ball with more space. And that makes sense -- he had far more talented receivers (including TE) around him than Amendola did.Only time will tell on the injuries, but it's easy to see that Amendola is a great fit to replace Welker.

This is what always perplexes me...I don't think we can say this. Amendola ranks 63rd among all WRs in PPR/game over the last four years.

Really? Including his first year playing part time with Kyle Boller, Marc Bulger, and Keith Null?He was WR24 last year in ppg, including the Arizona game he played despite being listed as doubtful (and no sane fantasy owner started him). Excluding that game, he was WR18.

 

[Anarchy99]

I tried hard to stay out of this but ultimately felt compelled to post. Jason, don't get your hopes up, as I sadly won't be chiming in on too many PS threads.

My main points will be to review the "injury prone" label being affixed to Amendola, dispel some group think that already appears to be circulating, and to side with Bill Belichick that production from NE's slot receiver is pretty much a foregone conclusion.

As I posted in many other threads, there are 4 guys with ties to NE that in some manner of speaking have been linked to each other and some of them are considered injury risks and some are not. Those 4 players are Amendola, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez. As I see things, the TIMING of these player's injuries have covered up some of their injuries (or made them look worse than they were).

Let's start with Gronkowski, who for the most part has been able to stay on the field for most of his career during the regular season. Despite that, I would consider him a very big injury risk. To recap, he had back issues and surgery in college, needed ankle surgery to play in the Super Bowl, and this past year has been battling infection/broken arm/plate issues. Now Gronkowski appears to need more back surgery (and at this point may need more arm surgery as well).

Many will point to Gronkowski missing only a few regular season games as proof positive that he is not an injury risk. However, they are ignoring that many of his injuries happened when there essentially were no fantasy contests being played. Had any of those injuries occurred in Week 1 of a season, Gronkowski would have missed EXTENDED games (whether that had been back, ankle, or arm injuries). And that's ignoring some other minor bumps and bruises along the way (other ankle and hip injuries that kept him out of camp). Had Gronkowski missed a year with a back problem, half a year recovering from ankle surgery, and half a year recovering from arm issues, he CERTAINLY would be labeled an injury risk. The only injury that seemed fluky was the broken arm on the extra point. I could let that slide . . . if not for the extended drama ever since the first break of the arm.

Sticking to the TE position, Aaron Hernandez hasn't exactly been a pillar of good health either. He's had multiple ankle/hip/knee issues and also been noted for having had calf, concussion, and back injuries. Now he's recovering from shoulder surgery. None of those really seem like fluke injuries, and they all would fall into a category of regular "wear and tear." Hernandez may not be any more of an injury risk than the average bear, but he certain has had a lot more than typical bangs and bruises that have have caused him to miss a fair amount of time.

Now let's move on to Welker. His most notable injury was his torn ACL . . . which was in a Week 17 game. Had that happened in Week One, he would have missed an entire season. But since it didn't, almost be default he is viewed as tough as nails. He may be tough, but he, too, is no stranger to getting nicked up. He's been on the injury report (and missed a game or two once in a while) with toe, abdomen, quadriceps, calf, should, neck, rib, concussion, ankle, and knee injuries (besides the ACL).

How about Amendola? He lost almost an entire season to a dislocated elbow and triceps injury. And he had another bizarre injury (a separated SC joint) in his shoulder. How many times have either of those injuries happened to anyone else? How likely are they to happen again. Both of those robbed Amendola of huge chucks of games. Had they happened late in the season, not many people would have made such a big deal of it. Other than those injuries, the only other more "typical" football related injury was a foot/heel injury last year. As I see it, he had two really bizarre, fluke injuries and one "regular" injury. But IMO, that probably makes him less of an injury risk than the other players we just discussed.

Moving on to comparing Amendola and Welker, I see almost everyone pointing to what Welker did in NE, hoe Amendola did in STL, and then drawing conclusions accordingly. To which I say that people are comparing the wrong things. People should be looking at what Welker did IN MIAMI. Welker had a best of 67 catches his last season playing for the Dolphins and had 1 TD reception in 3 seasons with the Fish. Welker sure seemed to pick it up playing for the Patriots.

And why aren't people comparing the talent level on the Rams vs. that of the Patriots? Amendola had Sam Bradford as his QB and a revolving door of other wide receivers. No one would ever confuse the high flying Patriots offense with the Rams. In the 4 years Amendola played with the Rams, NE outscored STL by a count of 2,015 points to 956 points.

On to the Patriots offense. When Tom Brady first took over as QB, the Pats had Troy Brown as their slot receiver (in his early 30s). The first two years with Brady, Brown averaged 6.6 receptions, 70 yards, and 0.3 TD per game. Wes Welker came to town a few years later . . . and averaged 7.2 receptions, 80 yards, and 0.4 TD per game. In the few games that Edelman filled in for Welker, even he averaged 5 receptions a game.

Sure, Edelman could see more time than expected, but the Pats didn't exactly rush to re-sign him (and gave him a very low dollar, one year deal). I'm leery of the Patriots ability to draft quality WRs, so I would not expect a lot of production from Dobson and Boyce (at least not this year). And perhaps most importantly, New England had been pursuing Amendola for over a year. They would have teamed him WITH Welker last year if they could have gotten him. As others have mentioned, they effectively offered Amendola close to the same money as Welker.

I would be surprised if Amendola DIDN'T have a 90-95 catch, 1,000 yard, 5 TD season. Remember, the numerous roster changes in NE means that 250 receptions, 2931 receiving yards, and 14 receiving TD from last year left town. So the numbers I just mentioned for Amendola would be roughly a third of that. If people do full projections for the Patriots offense, it would be hard to distribute the production without giving Amendola a decent sized slice of the pie . . . unless people really expect the Patriots offense to nose dive after 3 straight years of being one of the top offenses in the league.

IMO, Amendola THIS YEAR will have better numbers than Welker in DEN. And while it would be tough to project it, I think Amendola could approach the numbers Welker put up in NE.

 

[Jercules]

I tried hard to stay out of this but ultimately felt compelled to post. Jason, don't get your hopes up, as I sadly won't be chiming in on too many PS threads.

My main points will be to review the "injury prone" label being affixed to Amendola, dispel some group think that already appears to be circulating, and to side with Bill Belichick that production from NE's slot receiver is pretty much a foregone conclusion.

As I posted in many other threads, there are 4 guys with ties to NE that in some manner of speaking have been linked to each other and some of them are considered injury risks and some are not. Those 4 players are Amendola, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez. As I see things, the TIMING of these player's injuries have covered up some of their injuries (or made them look worse than they were).

Let's start with Gronkowski, who for the most part has been able to stay on the field for most of his career during the regular season. Despite that, I would consider him a very big injury risk. To recap, he had back issues and surgery in college, needed ankle surgery to play in the Super Bowl, and this past year has been battling infection/broken arm/plate issues. Now Gronkowski appears to need more back surgery (and at this point may need more arm surgery as well).

Many will point to Gronkowski missing only a few regular season games as proof positive that he is not an injury risk. However, they are ignoring that many of his injuries happened when there essentially were no fantasy contests being played. Had any of those injuries occurred in Week 1 of a season, Gronkowski would have missed EXTENDED games (whether that had been back, ankle, or arm injuries). And that's ignoring some other minor bumps and bruises along the way (other ankle and hip injuries that kept him out of camp). Had Gronkowski missed a year with a back problem, half a year recovering from ankle surgery, and half a year recovering from arm issues, he CERTAINLY would be labeled an injury risk. The only injury that seemed fluky was the broken arm on the extra point. I could let that slide . . . if not for the extended drama ever since the first break of the arm.

Sticking to the TE position, Aaron Hernandez hasn't exactly been a pillar of good health either. He's had multiple ankle/hip/knee issues and also been noted for having had calf, concussion, and back injuries. Now he's recovering from shoulder surgery. None of those really seem like fluke injuries, and they all would fall into a category of regular "wear and tear." Hernandez may not be any more of an injury risk than the average bear, but he certain has had a lot more than typical bangs and bruises that have have caused him to miss a fair amount of time.

Now let's move on to Welker. His most notable injury was his torn ACL . . . which was in a Week 17 game. Had that happened in Week One, he would have missed an entire season. But since it didn't, almost be default he is viewed as tough as nails. He may be tough, but he, too, is no stranger to getting nicked up. He's been on the injury report (and missed a game or two once in a while) with toe, abdomen, quadriceps, calf, should, neck, rib, concussion, ankle, and knee injuries (besides the ACL).

How about Amendola? He lost almost an entire season to a dislocated elbow and triceps injury. And he had another bizarre injury (a separated SC joint) in his shoulder. How many times have either of those injuries happened to anyone else? How likely are they to happen again. Both of those robbed Amendola of huge chucks of games. Had they happened late in the season, not many people would have made such a big deal of it. Other than those injuries, the only other more "typical" football related injury was a foot/heel injury last year. As I see it, he had two really bizarre, fluke injuries and one "regular" injury. But IMO, that probably makes him less of an injury risk than the other players we just discussed.

Moving on to comparing Amendola and Welker, I see almost everyone pointing to what Welker did in NE, hoe Amendola did in STL, and then drawing conclusions accordingly. To which I say that people are comparing the wrong things. People should be looking at what Welker did IN MIAMI. Welker had a best of 67 catches his last season playing for the Dolphins and had 1 TD reception in 3 seasons with the Fish. Welker sure seemed to pick it up playing for the Patriots.

And why aren't people comparing the talent level on the Rams vs. that of the Patriots? Amendola had Sam Bradford as his QB and a revolving door of other wide receivers. No one would ever confuse the high flying Patriots offense with the Rams. In the 4 years Amendola played with the Rams, NE outscored STL by a count of 2,015 points to 956 points.

On to the Patriots offense. When Tom Brady first took over as QB, the Pats had Troy Brown as their slot receiver (in his early 30s). The first two years with Brady, Brown averaged 6.6 receptions, 70 yards, and 0.3 TD per game. Wes Welker came to town a few years later . . . and averaged 7.2 receptions, 80 yards, and 0.4 TD per game. In the few games that Edelman filled in for Welker, even he averaged 5 receptions a game.

Sure, Edelman could see more time than expected, but the Pats didn't exactly rush to re-sign him (and gave him a very low dollar, one year deal). I'm leery of the Patriots ability to draft quality WRs, so I would not expect a lot of production from Dobson and Boyce (at least not this year). And perhaps most importantly, New England had been pursuing Amendola for over a year. They would have teamed him WITH Welker last year if they could have gotten him. As others have mentioned, they effectively offered Amendola close to the same money as Welker.

I would be surprised if Amendola DIDN'T have a 90-95 catch, 1,000 yard, 5 TD season. Remember, the numerous roster changes in NE means that 250 receptions, 2931 receiving yards, and 14 receiving TD from last year left town. So the numbers I just mentioned for Amendola would be roughly a third of that. If people do full projections for the Patriots offense, it would be hard to distribute the production without giving Amendola a decent sized slice of the pie . . . unless people really expect the Patriots offense to nose dive after 3 straight years of being one of the top offenses in the league.

IMO, Amendola THIS YEAR will have better numbers than Welker in DEN. And while it would be tough to project it, I think Amendola could approach the numbers Welker put up in NE.

Great post. I'd like to suggest, in addition, that the Pats, possibly, value Amendola more than Welker.

People forget they secured Amendola before Welker bolted (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/03/14/patriots-did-amendola-deal-before-welker-signed-with-broncos/). He's younger, more athletic, and for an offense that values versatility above almost anything, Amendola can do more things.

Welker had enough of a rapport with Brady that he could recognize a busted coverage--or hurry to the line, or pull a fast one after 5 underneath targets--and get deep on occasion. Amendola can line up on any given play and get deep "legitimately", for lack of a better term, because defenses will have to account for it from the get-go.

Amendola is something in between Welker and Hernandez for the Pats. I don't think he'll make a living on those lightning-quick, get-the-ball-and-avoid-a-tackle underneath routes that Welker worked to perfection, but with less targets and catches he'll still get comparable yardage and TD totals.

You've got Gronk, Amendola, and Hernandez; all three are injury risks, and the last two are legit breakout candidates. Because NE failed to acquire a stud at outside receiver, I'd lean towards Amendola filling the Lloyd role and partially the Welker role, with Hernandez and Vereen contributing as well.

Amendola was unheralded as a draft pick and earned the trust of the St.Louis coaches and Sam Bradford. Without another legitimate receiver in NE, I think he's due for a huge year.

 

[Bamac]

I'm not just concerned about his durability, I'm also concerned about his complete lack of ability to get deep either after the ball's in his hands or in routes. This is a guy who, in his only fully healthy season, averaged 8.1 yards per reception. He's averaged less than 9 yards per catch in four seasons. I know Welker was a low YPC guy, too, and ultimately it's about a volume thing for these guys, but I struggle with lightning striking twice in the same spot. To me Amendola has been called the poor man's Wes Welker for so long, that I really wonder if we're being too optimistic to think he can step into the same role and plug and play.

Lightning often strikes twice in the same spot. We call these spots lightning rods. And the slot WR role in NE is a lightning rod for targets.

Indeed, that's why I can't plant my flagpole on a claim that Amendola is going to bust. I just know that he won't be on any of my teams. Of course, Welker rarely was too and that was for a guy I actually expected to catch 100+ balls a year.

I think this point was overlooked. My guess is you like guys whose fantasy value is matched by their NFL value. And there's a certain comfort in that: for example, if Peyton misses time with injury, Welker's value plummets but Demaryius will be OK.

I, on the other hand, like owning guys like Amendola (and 2012 Michael Turner) whose fantasy contribution outweighs their NFL value. The reason is simple: they come cheaper than they ought.

 

[swirvenirvin]

 

[VA703]

Amendola not at practice.. Hopefully just a day of rest

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Amendola not at practice.. Hopefully just a day of rest

98.5 reports it is unlikely he's taking the trip to Detroit. They didn't give any more details though.

 

[Man of Zen]

He showed in the limited opportunities he was given to perform as a Welker-style slot machine in STL that he had at least the same level of ability to find holes and convert them into reliable, reception-hoarding short gainers.

He's also shown in the preseason, and in flashes throughout his career that he possesses the size and speed to make things happen downfield when called upon to do so, in ways Welker could never dream of producing. His deceptively low career YPR numbers have had everything to do with the panicky nature of the STL offense, and the desperate need to protect a franchise QB who didn't have enough weapons or enough blockers to give him time to survive a downfield attack.

On top of that, he's already developed more rapport with Brady than, for instance, Brandon Lloyd ever did. He's the only rock-solid receiving option with experience and versatility who is -- wait for it -- healthy for the Pats.

I think he's going to run plenty of the Welker underneath routes, and offer plenty of opportunities to catch defenses off guard by using traditional athleticism in ways Welker wasn't capable of, too. He's capable of Welkerish numbers, in addition to having TD potential Welker could never sniff, since Tom looks for bigs near the goalline more often than not.

Brady is laser-focused, this team is going to put up at least 4500/30 through the air no matter what, and Amendola is his guy. He'll take a slight dip from the slot numbers we've traditionally seen, just because he's going to be used in more ways, but he's still getting his hundred. He'll get Welker's 4-6 TD's, plus he'll get both a yardage and TD bump from being a legit downfield target at well.

Being WAY undersold at the moment, which shocks me in light of the fact that the preseason is showing him to be everything they or we could possibly have dreamed, and then some.

Projecting him as #3 overall WR for 2013. Calling 105/1400/10.

 

[msudaisy26]

100 + receptions 1200 + yards but touchdowns are hard to predict. I will go with 7.

 

[VA703]

Projecting him as #3 overall WR for 2013. Calling 105/1400/10.

That would make me very happy.. as hes my 12th round keeper

 

[zamboni]

Amendola not at practice.. Hopefully just a day of rest

98.5 reports it is unlikely he's taking the trip to Detroit. They didn't give any more details though.

At least we know that Belicheck will be extremely straightforward and give us the real scoop.

 

[zamboni]

Some little tidbits I could find:

Ben VolinVerified account ‏@BenVolin 17h

Danny Amendola got hit in the back of the head on his final catch of the Bucs game Friday http://ow.ly/i/2VaBz

http://www.csnne.com/blog/patriots-talk/amendola-iffy-vs-lions-thursday

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Some little tidbits I could find:

Ben VolinVerified account ‏@BenVolin 17h

Danny Amendola got hit in the back of the head on his final catch of the Bucs game Friday http://ow.ly/i/2VaBz

http://www.csnne.com/blog/patriots-talk/amendola-iffy-vs-lions-thursday

Nice work. That article says the source states it wasn't a head injury, but I don't trust much from NE. He also could have a neck injury, which may be worse than a head injury. Best to wait and see Amendola being listed as questionable for the next 18 weeks.

 

[Sabertooth]

Nothing to worry about /everypatsfanonthisboard

Brady will simply create another receiver out of clay.

 

[msudaisy26]

Nothing to worry about /everypatsfanonthisboard

Brady will simply create another receiver out of clay.

True story

 

[Man of Zen]

Nothing to worry about /everypatsfanonthisboard

Brady will simply create another receiver out of clay.

I'm not a Pats fan, but Amendola isn't a receiver that needs to be built up from zero. He's already a very good one. Not great, but can do a lot of things at a plus level. He can do well all the things that made Welker a dynamite slot receiver, and does a number of things better.

I was never all that impressed with Welker from a raw receiving standpoint. He simply had one of the league's best work ethics. (Part of which presented in his dedication to rehabbing from serious injury).

He had plus quickness, and his work ethic made him a good route runner, but he had modest athleticism for the position, terrible size, and mediocre hands. Yet because they knew he had put in the effort to know the system better than the rest of the receiving corps combined, he had the unwavering trust of Brady and BB, so they force fed him the ball for years.

I think they've upgraded. Time will tell.

 

[zamboni]

Amendola is "day to day", which in Belichick speak probably means we'll tell you each Sunday when the inactive lists come out.

http://bostonherald.com/sports/patriots_nfl/the_blitz/2013/08/belichick_on_amendola_absence_hes_day_to_day

 

[AcerFC]

Amendola is "day to day", which in Belichick speak probably means we'll tell you each Sunday when the inactive lists come out.

http://bostonherald.com/sports/patriots_nfl/the_blitz/2013/08/belichick_on_amendola_absence_hes_day_to_day

####

 

[elbowrm]

I'm tempted by the thought of an Edelman handcuff - is it realistic to expect he could step in? Barring health, I think so.

 

[silentcoach]

he'll miss games. it is what he does. i hate labeling people as "injury prone" but this is as close as you can get.

He's played 66% of the games he could have played up to this point in his career.

Predict 11 games and be happy if he plays more.