Player Spotlight: Daunte Culpepper (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Daunte Culpepper, QB, Miami Dolphins

Player Page Link: Daunte Culpepper Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[rzrback77]

I absolutely love Daunte Culpepper this season and wish him all the best in his recovery from knee surgery. I hope that he is able to participate in a lot of the pre-season practices and some pre-season games so that his ADP will rise. I need for him to overtake a few QBs that I will be targeting so that their ADP will decrease and their value can be maximized.

I am not sure if Daunte will be fully recovered for the start of the season, but my projections assume that he will play the entire season, which is unlikely.

His stats will be a little off from Frerotte's last year in Miami. I give him 245 completions out of 477 pass attempts for 2777 yards, 17 TDs and 20 Ints. He adds 40 rushes for 145 yards and 2 TDs.

 

[Musesboy]

Daunte Culpepper has a lot to overcome this year. He suffered a season-ending injury in Week 8 last season when his ACL, MCL and PCL were all damaged in a tackle while playing against the Panthers.

Culpepper is reportedly well ahead of schedule and it is even possible that he will be ready for the opening game of the season. I am wary of those reports as almost everything at this time of year is given a positive spin, but he was certainly said to be performing well in camp.

At 29 years of age, he should be entering his prime. It remains to be seen whether he will start the season and I would imagine that the Dolphins will not rush him if he is not ready. They must surely look at him as the future of the franchise for the next five years.

In addition to the challenge of rehabilitation, Culpepper and the rest of the Dolphins will be learning to adapt to Mike Mularkey's offensive scheme. Culpepper will also have to adjust to his new targets. If Chris Chambers was capable of 1100 yards and 11 TDs with Gus Frerotte under center, I would consider him a very good target for Culpepper. Booker is another capable receiver that has posted 100 receptions in a season and reached 1000 yards twice without ever having a good quarterback to help him. McMichael is a good option at TE.

The Dolphins are very thin at RB after Ronnie Brown and I can't imagine them wanting to give him a huge workload. The door is open for Culpepper to rebound well in 2006. His receivers look considerably better than those in his last year with the Vikings although none has the big play ability of Randy Moss. Whatever Culpepper does this year, I would expect him to improve on it next year.

Mike Mularkey loves using trick plays and I could see Culpepper carrying the ball in some of the goal line situations, and occasionally throwing to linemen rather than handing off to Brown.

I think that Culpepper will start the opening game and do very well this season. He will be playing as if he has something to prove after being traded for a second round pick. He may well become an elite QB again in future years when the injury has been put firmly behind him. Further improvement can be expected when he has experience in the new system and familiarity with his receivers. The second half of his season should be considerably better than his opening performances.

Prediction

302/480 3450 yards 20 TDs 18 INTs

65 rushes 325 yards 4 TDs

 

[mlball77]

It will be interesting to see how quickly Culpepper will bounce back this year. I definitely don't expect nearly as much out of his rushing stats, but I think his passing numbers could be solid as Chambers, Booker, and McMichael are a pretty good trio of targets to throw to. That said, I'm thinking Culpepper may start off slow if rushed back or could sit out a couple of games early.

For now, I'm projecting:

Pass Yds: 2950

Pass TDs: 20

INTs: 14

Rush Yds: 100

Rush TDs: 1

 

[nygiants56]

I wouldn't rank him in the top 15 QB's.

he looked TERRIBLE last year, BEFORE the injury, proving many pundits right: his stats were directly related to playing alongside of Randy Moss, nothing more, nothing less..

he threw 6 tds and 12 ints last year, BEFORE the injury, including many` wounded duck` type of wobbly errant passes. That speaks volumes about him as a QB sans Moss.

I might be in the minority who thinks C-Pepp and his trifecta of torn knee ligaments is too risky to even consider on draft day.

2200-9-15

 

[lawyer]

In my opinion, Culpepper is a high rish, high reward type of guy this year. I don't believe that he will 100% ready to play at the start of the season, despite HC Nick Saban's glowing remarks on the subject. While it is true that Miami is a very high-powered offense now, the fact remains that Culpepper will not be playing at 100% even if he does start the season. What's more, before the injury last year, Culpepper was ATROCIOUS without Randy Moss. He threw 12 interceptions in six full games (the seventh being the one he was injured in), which was one more than he threw in each of the past two FULL SEASONS. Extrapolated out, that comes to 19.5, so 20 interceptions. That's his second worst total ever (23), and it's 6 more than his career average of 14.33. Obviously, the lack of a superstar WR greatly impacted Culpepper. Now, with that said, some of the blame for his poor performance last year could be laid upon a certain love boat scandal, and other various clamor and unrest in Minnesota, not to mention terrible coaching and running back play.Not that this means anything, but looking over Culpepper's career stats, I noticed a trend. It seems that he cycles between good and bad play every two years. Here's what I mean:

Year     Team   G   GS   Att    Comp    Pct   Yards   YPA   Lg   TD  Int Tkld 20+ 40+ Rate 2000 Minnesota Vikings 16 16 474 297 62.7 3937 8.31 78 33 16 34/181 56 13 98.0 2001 Minnesota Vikings 11 11 366 235 64.2 2612 7.14 57 14 13 33/186 34 5 83.3 2002 Minnesota Vikings 16 16 549 333 60.7 3853 7.02 61 18 23 47/244 48 9 75.3 2003 Minnesota Vikings 14 14 454 295 65.0 3479 7.66 59 25 11 37/196 41 10 96.4 2004 Minnesota Vikings 16 16 548 379 69.2 4717 8.61 82 39 11 46/238 63 18 110.9 2005 Minnesota Vikings 7 7 216 139 64.4 1564 7.24 68 6 12 31/169 16 2 72.0

In 2000, Culpepper threw for 3937 yards, 33 TD's, and 16 Int's. He followed up that stellar sophomore year with a 2612 yard, 14 TD, 13 Int season, of which he played 11 games. In 2002, he had another bad season, but got better. In 2003, he had a pretty good season. 2004 was an OUTSTANDING year for Culpepper. 2005, obviously, sucked. So maybe 2006 with be an upswing year for him, but still not too good. I don't think that this is actually a viable theory, just throwing it out there.In Miami, Culpepper will be blessed with a very underrated WR in Chris Chambers, a very good TE in Randy McMichael, and a very good running back in Ronnie Brown. Hopefully, these players will be able to fill the void that the departure of Randy Moss left in Culpepper's game, and he'll be able to return to top form. I don't need to remind anyone that in the year before last, Culpepper threw for a 69.2% Comp. Pct., 4717 yards, 39 TD's, and 11 Int's. He's obviously one of the top QB's in the game and I think he has a great chance to prove that last year was a fluke. That said, my predictions for Culpepper are as follows:Games played: 14Games started: 14Completions: 330Attempts: 500Completion %: 66Pass Yards: 3200Pass TD's: 25Interceptions: 13Rush Yards: 150Rush TD: 1

 

[s1eepinglionhart]

Whether he was indeed a product of playing alongside Randy Moss remains to be seen, as he only had 7 games to adjust to a radically shifted offense without Moss and without his Offensive Coordinator Scott Linehan. With Troy Williamson struggling as a rookie (did we REALLY expect him to have the type of rookie season Moss had?) and having no chemistry built with Culpepper, it's clear Daunte missed Randy last season but not clear as to whether Daunte is a one trick pony.

What I see in Miami, however, reminds me greatly of the environment Culppeper thrived in during the 2004 season. He's running a Scott Linehan designed offense with slight modifications. He's got a freak of an athlete in Chris Chambers (much like Randy Moss), an amazing tight end in McMichael (He's upper echelon, better than Wiggins), and a running back in Ronnie Brown that puts the trio of O. Smith, M. Moore, and M. Bennett to shame. If Culpepper can fully recover from his injuries by the start of the season, this is how I see it (over 16 games):

3346 passing yards

26 passing TDs

17 INTs

419 rushing yards

3 rushing TDs

 

[mbuehner]

Culpepper's 05 season was bad, we all know that. 7 TDs and 12 ints is a problem. But if you look closer at the season there are some mitigating factors. 8 of his ints were thrown in the first 2 games, including 5 at cinci. He bounced back from that with a 3td 300 yard, no turnover game.

In his remaining 3 games he went 3td, 4int, and averaged 256 passing/ 22 yards rushing per game. Not good but not god awful.

Moreover, we cant forget Culpepper's 04 season was the highest fantasy point total for any player in history. And much of the season was played with Moss on the bench or severly limited.

So which season was the abjuration? Lets look how Culp finished over his carer in FPS:

2004: QB1

2003: QB 1 (thats in 14 games kids)

2002: QB 4

2001: QB 7 (played 11 games)

2000: QB 1

That is a record of near uniform fantasy success. Up until last year. So the question is did Culpepper hit the wall last year, or did he just have a really bad season? And most importantly, can Culpepper play without Moss?

The answer is yes, he has shown he can. In 2004, Moss missed 3 games completely and lined up for a meaningless snap in two other games. During those 5 games Culpepper averaged 20.6 FP/game, good enough for QB4 during that period.

And Culpepper is not exactly walking onto a talentless team. Miami passed for 3463 yards 22tds last season. I consider that the baseline for Culpepper. If he's healthy thats the absolute basement. I think he clicks with Chambers and co and ends up about:

3715 passing yards

25 passing tds

18 ints

105 yards rushing

0 tds

Thats about 25% off his career average, and still puts him in the top 5.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

Culpepper is a classic risk-reward type of player this year. I view him as having more negatives than positives right now.

-Needs to adjust to a new system, offensive scheme and personnel

-Returning from a major injury

-Was playing poorly before the injury

--Appears to be ahead of schedule in recovery

--Prolly has a chip on his shoulder to prove he is a worthy QB

What would be a great situation for me personally is for him to continue to rehab ahead of schedule, get glowing reports and be ready for opening day. He'd prolly see a nice shot upwards on his ADP as another poster mentioned. Since I don't trust him as a QB1, this would force me to go after a solid QB2 ahead of where I'd like to. If he gets an ADP boost, other managers may reach for him, taking that risk away from me and allowing me to get more value out of a QB in the same tier. If you could somehow get him as a QB2 however...

I expect that next year Culp. will be undervalued and a value play as he is more acclimated to Miami and has had his one year buffer recovery season as most seem to need.

 

[joffer]

I'm starting to like him more and more as the preseason wears on. The biggest question i have is his rushing yards. Most projections in this thread so far have very low rushing numbers, which isn't surprising considering he's coming off a devastating knee injury. I'm a little more optimistic, he didn't exactly make a habit of juking defenders in the open field when he ran, just taking what his size would give him. His ADP is starting to climb, making him less and less of a value, but I'd be happy to get him as a late QB1/early QB2

14 games played

260/440/3180/20/14 passing

60/317/3 rushing

 

[DawnBTVS]

I think Culpepper will be a pleasant surprise this season after the poor showing last year. I expect Culpepper to not run as much this season to protect his body a little better but he should still be a solid QB1 option in terms of FPPG. I think he can surprise TD wise (Brown, McMichael, Booker, and Chambers give him plenty of targets in the RZ) and he'll cut down on his INT thanks to fewer pass attempts.

14 Games

297/462 for 3419 yards with 24 TD vs. 15 INT

36 carries for 212 yards and 1 TD

 

[joffer]

link

Now the word from the Miami Dolphins is that ex-Vikings quarterback Daunte Culpepper has made great strides in rehabilitating his injured knee and definitely will be ready to play in the season opener.

 

[Verbal Kint]

Culpepper is a classic risk-reward type of player this year. I view him as having more negatives than positives right now.

-Needs to adjust to a new system, offensive scheme and personnel

-Returning from a major injury

-Was playing poorly before the injury

--Appears to be ahead of schedule in recovery

--Prolly has a chip on his shoulder to prove he is a worthy QB

What would be a great situation for me personally is for him to continue to rehab ahead of schedule, get glowing reports and be ready for opening day. He'd prolly see a nice shot upwards on his ADP as another poster mentioned. Since I don't trust him as a QB1, this would force me to go after a solid QB2 ahead of where I'd like to. If he gets an ADP boost, other managers may reach for him, taking that risk away from me and allowing me to get more value out of a QB in the same tier. If you could somehow get him as a QB2 however...

I expect that next year Culp. will be undervalued and a value play as he is more acclimated to Miami and has had his one year buffer recovery season as most seem to need.

My concern with C-Pep's rehab has got to do nothing to do with his physical progress, but entirely with the mental aspect. It takes alot for an athlete coming off knee surgery to trust the reconstructed knee again fully. One thing that struck me with him before the injury last year was how his mental game seemed to break down, and how quickly his confidence eroded when the team was down. Add in the stress of playing on a reconstructed knee, and I'm not entirely sure he can pull it together for the beginning of the season. It will be something I will be watching for in the preseason.As such projections at this point are a bit premature, but I'm currently slotting him for:

3,100/20 passing

150/1 rushing

 

[ATC1]

Culpepper is a classic risk-reward type of player this year.  I view him as having more negatives than positives right now.

-Needs to adjust to a new system, offensive scheme and personnel

-Returning from a major injury

-Was playing poorly before the injury

--Appears to be ahead of schedule in recovery

--Prolly has a chip on his shoulder to prove he is a worthy QB

What would be a great situation for me personally is for him to continue to rehab ahead of schedule, get glowing reports and be ready for opening day.  He'd prolly see a nice shot upwards on his ADP as another poster mentioned.  Since I don't trust him as a QB1, this would force me to go after a solid QB2 ahead of where I'd like to.  If he gets an ADP boost, other managers may reach for him, taking that risk away from me and allowing me to get more value out of a QB in the same tier.  If you could somehow get him as a QB2 however...

I expect that next year Culp. will be undervalued and a value play as he is more acclimated to Miami and has had his one year buffer recovery season as most seem to need.

My concern with C-Pep's rehab has got to do nothing to do with his physical progress, but entirely with the mental aspect. It takes alot for an athlete coming off knee surgery to trust the reconstructed knee again fully. One thing that struck me with him before the injury last year was how his mental game seemed to break down, and how quickly his confidence eroded when the team was down. Add in the stress of playing on a reconstructed knee, and I'm not entirely sure he can pull it together for the beginning of the season. It will be something I will be watching for in the preseason.

It's easy to say he will start without seeing him without pads on and full contact. Celpepper makes poor decisions with the football at times, he uses his mobility to find time to make reads. He will have less time this year to make decisions becuase he will not have the mobility that he had the previous years. Hence, more bad decisions, and turnovers.

 

[H.K.]

Linehan is off to St. Louis as the HC, and Mike Mularkey is the new OC in Miami. Here is a snippet from his bio from the Dolphins web site:

Mike Mularkey joins the Dolphins with an impressive NFL résumé under his belt. This includes ten years as an assistant in the league, and the last two as head coach with the Buffalo Bills. Mularkey was named to his current post by Head Coach Nick Saban on January 22, 2006.In Mularkey’s two years in Buffalo, the team posted a composite record of 14-18, including a 9-7 mark in his first season there as the Bills reeled off wins in nine of their final 12 games.Prior to taking over the helm with the Bills, Mularkey spent the previous eight seasons (1996-2003) on the staff of the Pittsburgh Steelers, including the final three as offensive coordinator. Under Mularkey’s guidance, Pittsburgh finished third and fifth, respectively, in the NFL in total offense in his first two years in the post, and led the league in rushing offense (173.4 ypg) in 2001. Also that year, quarterback Kordell Stewart threw for 3,109 yards and was selected to the AFC Pro Bowl squad. The Steelers went 13-3 in 2001, captured the AFC Central Division title and played in the AFC Championship game. In 2002, Mularkey oversaw the resurgence of quarterback Tommy Maddox, who, after having not played in the NFL from 1996-2000, completed 234 of 377 passes for 2,836 yards with 20 touchdowns and 16 interceptions and was named NFL Comeback Player of the Year. Maddox’s 62.1 percent completion mark that year was a franchise single-season record at the time.

Saban is stil the man in charge, and last year he got 3,458 yards along with 22 TD's and 16 ints out of the QB position.What does it mean for C-Pep?1) He'll have some nice weapons to throw to in Chambers, Booker & McMichaels2) Right now it looks like he may actually play on opening day3) No more Ricky Williams leaves Brown and very little talent behind him, so throwing a little more may be way to offset the lack of RB depth and give Brown a breather3619 yards passing23 TD's17 Ints41 rush167 yards2 TD

 

[Jason Wood]

Let's spark this back up...with Culpepper participating in practice (including two a days), his ADP has also risen (QB8 as of this post). Would you comfortably draft him that high?

 

[LHUCKS]

Let's spark this back up...with Culpepper participating in practice (including two a days), his ADP has also risen (QB8 as of this post). Would you comfortably draft him that high?

No way.Culpepper is huge risk until he can prove two things:

a) he's fully recovered from injury

b) he can put up stats without Randy Moss at his disposal

One of the most overrated QBs of the year IMHO.

 

[joffer]

Let's spark this back up...with Culpepper participating in practice (including two a days), his ADP has also risen (QB8 as of this post). Would you comfortably draft him that high?

liking him less and less as that climbs. Two weeks ago you could get him as your QB2 over at xperts.

 

[mbuehner]

I disagree for the same reason I listed above. Culpepper was so astonishingly prolific in fantasy points, he can literally fall 25% off his career average (much less his best season) and land in the top 5. Even without Moss he produced reasonably well in 04.

His health is the biggest wildcard, if he is on the field he will produce fantasy points with Chambers, Booker, McMichael, and Brown. The scrubs the Dolphins have been stuck with the last couple years have been sniffin at 3500 yards with this crew (plus Brown full time now). Even the terrible year he had last season he was on pace for 3568 yards.

Culpepper would have to be shot in the arm not to put up 3500 if he stays healthy, and thats the floor. The upside is the #1 QB in fantasy, and I dont know if you can say that about any other non-Peyton QB.

 

[Musesboy]

Predicted

302/480 3450 yards 20 TDs 18 INTs

65 rushes 325 yards 4 TDs

Actual

81/134 929 yards 2 TDs 3 INTs

10 carries 20 yards 1 TD

I was hopelessly wrong with this prediction. Culpepper only played four games before the coaching staff became convinced that he was not healthy.

Daunte Culpepper has a lot to overcome this year. He suffered a season-ending injury in Week 8 last season when his ACL, MCL and PCL were all damaged in a tackle while playing against the Panthers.

Culpepper is reportedly well ahead of schedule and it is even possible that he will be ready for the opening game of the season. I am wary of those reports as almost everything at this time of year is given a positive spin, but he was certainly said to be performing well in camp.

At 29 years of age, he should be entering his prime. It remains to be seen whether he will start the season and I would imagine that the Dolphins will not rush him if he is not ready. They must surely look at him as the future of the franchise for the next five years.

In addition to the challenge of rehabilitation, Culpepper and the rest of the Dolphins will be learning to adapt to Mike Mularkey's offensive scheme. Culpepper will also have to adjust to his new targets. If Chris Chambers was capable of 1100 yards and 11 TDs with Gus Frerotte under center, I would consider him a very good target for Culpepper. Booker is another capable receiver that has posted 100 receptions in a season and reached 1000 yards twice without ever having a good quarterback to help him. McMichael is a good option at TE.

The Dolphins are very thin at RB after Ronnie Brown and I can't imagine them wanting to give him a huge workload. The door is open for Culpepper to rebound well in 2006. His receivers look considerably better than those in his last year with the Vikings although none has the big play ability of Randy Moss. Whatever Culpepper does this year, I would expect him to improve on it next year.

Mike Mularkey loves using trick plays and I could see Culpepper carrying the ball in some of the goal line situations, and occasionally throwing to linemen rather than handing off to Brown.

I think that Culpepper will start the opening game and do very well this season. He will be playing as if he has something to prove after being traded for a second round pick. He may well become an elite QB again in future years when the injury has been put firmly behind him. Further improvement can be expected when he has experience in the new system and familiarity with his receivers. The second half of his season should be considerably better than his opening performances.

Prediction

302/480 3450 yards 20 TDs 18 INTs

65 rushes 325 yards 4 TDs