Player Spotlight: David Wilson, RB, New York Giants (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: David Wilson, RB, New York Giants

Player Page Link: David Wilson Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
• FBG Projections
  

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
  

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Khy]

A full offseason with the coaches working with him on ball security and pass blocking. As long as he doesn't forget those lessons and blow his short with another week 1 fumble? I'm going to say sky is the limit. My guess:

225 carries 1100yds 8 TDs : 40 receptions 400yds 1 TD

There's a few questions marks still but I don't think Andre Brown carves out as big a role as some people seem to think. I would say the likelihood that Brown gets injured is just as high as the likelihood that he takes more than 30% of the carries. Baring any set backs in his blocking and ball security this offense will really start to run through Wilson. If he can go on a few game streak to start the season without the ball hitting the ground I wouldn't be blown away to see him approach 250-300 carries on the year. We've seen the talent that's there it's just a matter of him getting the ball.

 

[LususV]

A full offseason with the coaches working with him on ball security and pass blocking. As long as he doesn't forget those lessons and blow his short with another week 1 fumble? I'm going to say sky is the limit. My guess:

225 carries 1100yds 8 TDs : 40 receptions 400yds 1 TD

There's a few questions marks still but I don't think Andre Brown carves out as big a role as some people seem to think. I would say the likelihood that Brown gets injured is just as high as the likelihood that he takes more than 30% of the carries. Baring any set backs in his blocking and ball security this offense will really start to run through Wilson. If he can go on a few game streak to start the season without the ball hitting the ground I wouldn't be blown away to see him approach 250-300 carries on the year. We've seen the talent that's there it's just a matter of him getting the ball.

Good post - I think you nailed my expected value, and he has elite upside. He's like a cross between Bradshaw and Chris Johnson. As a Giants' fan and an owner of Wilson in two keeper leagues, I'm excited about this kid's potential.

 

[bigmarc27]

Ill be that guy - David Wilson will be a top 5 pick in 2014 in all formats.

240 carries: 1250 yards

50 receptions: 510 yards

12 TDs total

 

[Khy]

A full offseason with the coaches working with him on ball security and pass blocking. As long as he doesn't forget those lessons and blow his short with another week 1 fumble? I'm going to say sky is the limit. My guess:

225 carries 1100yds 8 TDs : 40 receptions 400yds 1 TD

There's a few questions marks still but I don't think Andre Brown carves out as big a role as some people seem to think. I would say the likelihood that Brown gets injured is just as high as the likelihood that he takes more than 30% of the carries. Baring any set backs in his blocking and ball security this offense will really start to run through Wilson. If he can go on a few game streak to start the season without the ball hitting the ground I wouldn't be blown away to see him approach 250-300 carries on the year. We've seen the talent that's there it's just a matter of him getting the ball.

Good post - I think you nailed my expected value, and he has elite upside. He's like a cross between Bradshaw and Chris Johnson. As a Giants' fan and an owner of Wilson in two keeper leagues, I'm excited about this kid's potential.

Yeah he definitely has elite upside, I'm putting those as his numbers on the assumption that Andre Brown takes 30% of the carries from him and is mainly the goal line back which would mean I'm assuming he has 8 breakaway TDs on the year.

Ill be that guy - David Wilson will be a top 5 pick in 2014 in all formats. 240 carries: 1250 yards 50 receptions: 510 yards 12 TDs total

Not even really 'being that guy' the talent level is there for those numbers and anyone that knows the Giants coaching staff also knows that when the run game is effective they won't pull up on it. If he can come out in the first few weeks and put up big games they won't just start lowering his carries in favor of the pass. When Coughlin has the option to do it, he loves nothing more than having the game run through the RBs. And when that happens Eli is deadly at good play action passes. I may be a Giants homer but I"m expecting big things this season with the change in the NYG backfield.

 

[Biabreakable]

It is too early for me to consider projecting the Giants running game right now because I think they may bring in a veteran RB at some point who may get some limited action. Is Torain that guy? Maybe he is. If he is then I expect Wilson and Brown to have good seasons. I am just not convinced we know all of the players yet.

There are a lot of Giants fans who know more about this team than I do. I recall a few months back one of them telling me that the Giants have not been as good of a run blocking team in recent years as a pass blocking team. I see they still have Snee who is a nasty run blocker who can get things going. But perhaps it is not up to the standard it has been in the recent past such as 2010 or earlier. Rushing attempts were consistently higher than they have been the last 2 seasons as well. 440 in 2009 500 in 2008. So the Giants are not running the ball as much. Perhaps this is why I think a player is still missing from the rotation.

2012 409ra 1862yds 18TD 4.6ypc 536pa
2011 411ra 1427yds 17TD 3.5ypc 589pa
2010 480ra 2200yds 17TD 4.6ypc 539pa

The main difference between 2012 and 2011 was not the rushing attempts but the effectiveness of those attempts. All 3 RB used in 2011 averaged under 4ypc. So that is a sign of problems with the Oline. The return to 4.6ypc is a good sign that the rushing offense did improve in 2012.
When I was looking at this information http://www.steelersdepot.com/2013/05/2012-nfl-stats-team-explosive-plays-produced-by-running-backs-fullbacks/ I was a bit surprised to note that the Giants were tied for 3rd in the league with 58 runs over 10 yards. Eli Manning did not contribute but one of these runs and brings down the team average with his career ypc 1.9

Wilson has a 40yd run on Cleveland. A 20yd run on SF. 52yd vs the Saints. 25yd run vs Falcons. 15yd run vs Philly. There may have been 10 or so runs over 10yds by him but not more. I think this is something Wilson will be able to do with some good frequency however, it is more the carries in between I worry about with him. The Giants producing this many long runs shows me that they are still a effective run blocking team.

I think the main problem is actually the defense which has given up about 50-60 more 1st downs to opposing teams than they did in 2010 the last time they ran significantly more than 400ra. I don't think the defense is improved. So a lot of passing attempts and total ra will likely stay somewhere close to 400 total. This could be a 300/100 split or a more even split of 200/200 between Wilson/Brown if a 3rd RB does not see much action is how I might look at it right now. With a 3rd RB I think the distribution would look more like last season 220/70/70.

So I see WIlson as being a 180-300 carry guy right now. I have not seen him involved in the passing game at all yet so not sure what to expect from him there. I will try to come back to this at a later date once more is known about the rotation. For now I would be expecting one of the 3 above distribution scenarios and a ypc at least average of 4.3-4.6ypc for both WIlson/Brown.

 

[Eminence]

Durability and fumbles. If you're Tom Coughlin, who do you want nursing leads, short-yardage, and redzone? But the way he runs scares me, Darren McFadden is just as explosive as Wilson and runs just as reckless. Reggie Bush comes to mind, too.

He is eager to burst through a huge hole in a timeshare, but as leadback how many times is he going to get cracked at the line of scrimmage before he becomes a little less excited to get carry ball again? I don't think he punishes defenders, in-fact, I think defenders get to him.

Andre Brown isn't a great talent, but he's the perfect muscle for a Tom Coughlin lead Offense.

Wilson does present a lot of value on 3rd and long situations, though. If the defense cheats too much, audible to draw. If the blocking is great, he can explode past the line of scrimmage and get a quick angle on the safety. Obviously they'll work to get the guy in space, but I feel like a bad fumble or Andre Brown has the hot hand and the guy ends up with only 8 - 10 carries.

 

[Kree]

Durability and fumbles. If you're Tom Coughlin, who do you want nursing leads, short-yardage, and redzone? But the way he runs scares me, Darren McFadden is just as explosive as Wilson and runs just as reckless. Reggie Bush comes to mind, too.

He is eager to burst through a huge hole in a timeshare, but as leadback how many times is he going to get cracked at the line of scrimmage before he becomes a little less excited to get carry ball again? I don't think he punishes defenders, in-fact, I think defenders get to him.

Andre Brown isn't a great talent, but he's the perfect muscle for a Tom Coughlin lead Offense.

Wilson does present a lot of value on 3rd and long situations, though. If the defense cheats too much, audible to draw. If the blocking is great, he can explode past the line of scrimmage and get a quick angle on the safety. Obviously they'll work to get the guy in space, but I feel like a bad fumble or Andre Brown has the hot hand and the guy ends up with only 8 - 10 carries.

Funnily enough, one of the two Giant RBs you are referencing has been IRed twice and has moved around the league on account of injury issues. Note - It isn't Wilson.

 

[Sabertooth]

265 rushes, 1200 yards

45 catches, 360 yards

8 combined touchdowns

 

[Khy]

Durability and fumbles. If you're Tom Coughlin, who do you want nursing leads, short-yardage, and redzone? But the way he runs scares me, Darren McFadden is just as explosive as Wilson and runs just as reckless. Reggie Bush comes to mind, too.

He is eager to burst through a huge hole in a timeshare, but as leadback how many times is he going to get cracked at the line of scrimmage before he becomes a little less excited to get carry ball again? I don't think he punishes defenders, in-fact, I think defenders get to him.

Andre Brown isn't a great talent, but he's the perfect muscle for a Tom Coughlin lead Offense.

Wilson does present a lot of value on 3rd and long situations, though. If the defense cheats too much, audible to draw. If the blocking is great, he can explode past the line of scrimmage and get a quick angle on the safety. Obviously they'll work to get the guy in space, but I feel like a bad fumble or Andre Brown has the hot hand and the guy ends up with only 8 - 10 carries.

Funnily enough, one of the two Giant RBs you are referencing has been IRed twice and has moved around the league on account of injury issues. Note - It isn't Wilson.

Yeah I thought the same thing, you're talking about Wilson's durability as if the guy has some kind of bad injury history or something... or if he's small and skinny. Neither of which are the case at all. The only RB with durability issues on the Giants roster would be Andre Brown. The guy literally hasn't played significant downs in the NFL without experiencing a severe injury. As I've said previously in this thread, the Giants are aware Brown is effective, they're also aware he has a tendency to get hurt. I don't expect him to see a lions share of carries. I more so expect him to be a situational back and goal line back and that's it. Cause he's super effective in certain situations and him healthy with 150 carries on the year is better than him hurt with 80 carries in the first 5 weeks.

 

[steveski]

Wilson will not be getting the carries inside the 5, but he will be getting the ball inside the 20. As we saw last season, that's his sweet spot. All he needs is a small hole to get 20 yards down the field. Brown will be the guy getting the goal line runs, but I don't think it will eat away as many TD's as people think.

 

[zamboni]

Wilson will not be getting the carries inside the 5

While that seems to be the general consensus, we don't know that for sure. For all we know, Wilson may turn out to be a strong short-yardage guy himself and may not be automatically pulled. Time will tell.

 

[Khy]

Wilson will not be getting the carries inside the 5

While that seems to be the general consensus, we don't know that for sure. For all we know, Wilson may turn out to be a strong short-yardage guy himself and may not be automatically pulled. Time will tell.

People take the term "goal line back" out of context. Wilson will still see some carries within the 5. He's a lot more powerful than people give him credit for, if you watch his footage from last year or at VT you'll see a lot of him dropping his shoulders and carrying one or two guys for 3-4 yards before falling down. That's not even mentioning his ridiculous broad and vert numbers that make him a massive threat just jumping over the pile higher than any linebacker can get to square him up mid air.

 

[Grahamburn]

 

[TheFanatic]

Wilson will not be getting the carries inside the 5, but he will be getting the ball inside the 20. As we saw last season, that's his sweet spot. All he needs is a small hole to get 20 yards down the field. Brown will be the guy getting the goal line runs, but I don't think it will eat away as many TD's as people think.

That requires Brown to stay healthy. That's like asking Samuel L Jackson's character in Unbreakable to not get hurt. The guy is as brittle as they come.

And for a previous post, when does 1 fumble become fumbleitis?

 

[Blackjacks]

The past does repeat itself (Brown getting hurt) but then you also have to be worried about the fumble problems Wilson had last year.

Cant just look at the good and not the bad.

I love Wilson's talent and upside if he fixes some small problems but I agree that as long as Brown can stay healthy he wont see the goal line touches.

250 total touches

1200 yards

6 tds

 

[gianmarco]

And for a previous post, when does 1 fumble become fumbleitis?

And for a later post too. As in the very next one.

 

[Dippa]

And for a previous post, when does 1 fumble become fumbleitis?

Some just can't get past that 1 fumble in his first pro game. Bradshaw fumbled three times last year and still got his carries when healthy. In 2010, Bradshaw had 7 fumbles and still had the most carries and yardage of his career. There are several examples going back to Tiki Barber where fumble issues didn't land the starter on the bench.

I've argued this in the Wilson Bandwagon thread, but Coughlin doesn't have a history of benching starters for fumbling, regardless of how he handled Wilson as a rookie non-starter.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Along with Lamar Miller, Wilson is the RB seen as one you can get in Round 3 or below who could be a 1st round talent/value by years end. But with no real record to stand on in addition to usage pattern, the key to determining where you will be able to pick him probably will be decided during pre-season and no sooner.

Coming into the NFL, Wilson’s strengths were 1) his natural running ability and 2) his blinding speed. Wilson’s weaknesses were defined as 1) prone to fumbling 2) pass protection. So his gifts suggest an unlimited upside, but his weaknesses have to be corrected before he can fully exploit them. And Tom Coughlin is not one to suffer fools. Most of us remember Wilson’s fumble on the 2nd carry of his career…despite showing remorse touched the ball 18 times over the next 9 games on offense. Now I don’t expect such drastic action from Wilson should something like this occur again, but it could lead to game-to-game consistency issues and affect how he’s used and what situations he’s used in. To be fair, probably a bigger reason why Wilson seemed to not be used as much as most thought he would be was a less than stellar grasp of the playbook.

With that said, his positives also could include starting to showcase game-breaking ability. If he’s able to establish it early in the season, it could solidify his standing significantly in a multitude of packages.



This is going to sound a bit touchy-feely, but how he handles being the #1 RB in NY emotionally is going to be crucial to Wilson’s prospects in 2013 and beyond. He’s not in a city like Atlanta where the media is gentle. Wilson had big expectations for himself his rookie year

• No fumbles
• 10 TD’s
• No sacks allowed
• 5 YPC
• 6 100 yard games
• 1 play of 20 yards in each game

It’s great that he placed those expectations on himself, but handling failure or adversity is a key part of being a pro and if the ball somehow gets rolling the wrong way for Wilson, it could spell trouble. That fumble was a reality check for Wilson. In hindsight, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Giants scaled back Wilson’s role on this basis too. What does this mean? It means that the Giants could very well open the season in a true RBBC situation as a way to allow Wilson to slowly adjust to being on the field more. Allow him the opportunity to earn the RB1 job with his performance on the field when it counts versus having the title foisted upon him and putting significant expectations on him to carry the run game from the seasons outset (July). If you can be patient with Wilson in terms of his workload, then jump in. He has the talent to emerge as an RB1, but it might take some games much like it did with Doug Martin last year before you seem him explode. If you invest, hold. I had an owner give up on Martin being a significant producer in 2012 and traded Martin and Cobb for Ridley. The next week was his breakout. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wilson’s season arc follow suit but without the Martin upside since the Giants have a guy like Andre Brown to work in.

Prediction: 227 Rushes 1105 Rushing Yards 6 TD’s, 27 Receptions 247 Receiving Yards 2 TD’s.

 

[coachbobbyfinstock]

Durability and fumbles. If you're Tom Coughlin, who do you want nursing leads, short-yardage, and redzone? But the way he runs scares me, Darren McFadden is just as explosive as Wilson and runs just as reckless. Reggie Bush comes to mind, too.

He is eager to burst through a huge hole in a timeshare, but as leadback how many times is he going to get cracked at the line of scrimmage before he becomes a little less excited to get carry ball again? I don't think he punishes defenders, in-fact, I think defenders get to him.

Andre Brown isn't a great talent, but he's the perfect muscle for a Tom Coughlin lead Offense.

Wilson does present a lot of value on 3rd and long situations, though. If the defense cheats too much, audible to draw. If the blocking is great, he can explode past the line of scrimmage and get a quick angle on the safety. Obviously they'll work to get the guy in space, but I feel like a bad fumble or Andre Brown has the hot hand and the guy ends up with only 8 - 10 carries.

I think your taking a devil's advocate approach here, but I must admit I agree with some of what you are saying (as everyone knows I am big Giants fan). WIlson is a great talent, no doubt. But there is just something about how Gilbride/Coughlin is using him that really bugs me. I have no doubt the kid is putting the time in, after a few mental errrors last year he was just about in tears.

In his 2nd year I would like to see WIlson put a lot of that stuff behind him (it seemed like he got in a rut last yr and had a tough time getting out) and receive about 230 touches.

 

[ol blues]

RB2 skills and with Brown around for short yardage and in close work his current ADP seems about right. He's someone you want to believe can excel, but there are too many weaknesses in his game to warrant a reach.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

David Wilson is a boom or bust pick. H didn't seem to have the confidence in his coaches last year, that bothers me. We kept saying he'll be the No.1 by year's end and that didn't happen.

There are some lofty projections for him but I am much more conservative.

800 yards and 5tds

23 receptions for 266 yards and 2 tds

 

[Leonidas]

Durability and fumbles.

Fumbles?

Or one fumble. Singular.

Not plural.

 

[Sabertooth]

RB2 skills and with Brown around for short yardage and in close work his current ADP seems about right. He's someone you want to believe can excel, but there are too many weaknesses in his game to warrant a reach.

Name 2.

 

[RushHour]

I think people who claim that Andre Brown will be any kind of major impediment to Wilson's fantasy value are just overthinking this and nitpicking. Sure, he will get some carries at the goal line (when he isn't injured), but Wilson is the main guy here. I don't really think this will be the kind of committe some people are envisiging.

 

[Grahamburn]

Durability and fumbles.

Fumbles?

Or one fumble. Singular.

Not plural.

The posters ringing the "one fumble" bell are really missing the point...

 

[Leonidas]

Durability and fumbles.

Fumbles?

Or one fumble. Singular.

Not plural.

The posters ringing the "one fumble" bell are really missing the point...

Can you please explain it, then?

Without using factually incorrect reasons, like fumbles

 

[Grahamburn]

Durability and fumbles.

Fumbles?

Or one fumble. Singular.

Not plural.

The posters ringing the "one fumble" bell are really missing the point...

Can you please explain it, then?

Without using factually incorrect reasons, like fumbles

I think it's pretty clear, but...

There's an inherent workload risk there if Wilson happens to fumble. Even if it is only one time. With an ADP in the 3rd round I don't overlook things like that. I don't overlook Wilson's pass protection or receiving troubles either. Mostly because Tom Coughlin won't overlook them.

Granted, these questions marks are why he has an ADP in the 3rd round. If we were assured Wilson would be receiving a feature back workload he'd be a first round pick.

 

[Kree]

Durability and fumbles.

Fumbles?

Or one fumble. Singular.

Not plural.

The posters ringing the "one fumble" bell are really missing the point...

Can you please explain it, then?

Without using factually incorrect reasons, like fumbles

I think it's pretty clear, but...

There's an inherent workload risk there if Wilson happens to fumble. Even if it is only one time. With an ADP in the 3rd round I don't overlook things like that. I don't overlook Wilson's pass protection or receiving troubles either. Mostly because Tom Coughlin won't overlook them.

Granted, these questions marks are why he has an ADP in the 3rd round. If we were assured Wilson would be receiving a feature back workload he'd be a first round pick.

Coughlin is always slow to warm up to rookies. Especially when they're behind good, established starters. And Wilson was a very raw RB for a first round draft pick. He developed massively in the year maturity wise.

Wilson is his number one now, who by all accounts has improved on his pass protection.

Quite a different set of circumstances.

 

[Blackjacks]

I think a lot on this board are downplaying the fumbles due to only 1 (even though it was a problem coming out of college as well) but it also limited his touches last year which of course made his total fumbles lower.

If people high on Wilson are expecting 4x the touches than why wouldn't you expect 4x the fumbles.

 

[Dippa]

I think a lot on this board are downplaying the fumbles due to only 1 (even though it was a problem coming out of college as well) but it also limited his touches last year which of course made his total fumbles lower.

If people high on Wilson are expecting 4x the touches than why wouldn't you expect 4x the fumbles.

I'm one who's downplayed it, and I do expect his fumbles to increase with more touches. I just disagree that when he inevitably fumbles again, that it will land him on the bench. Bradshaw had 3 fumbles on about 3 times the amount of touches last year...no significant decrease in workload after each happened.

I don't think anyone is saying that he won't fumble, it's just a disagreement in how that will be handled when it happens. Whenever this gets discussed, no one is able to answer this question: When has Coughlin ever benched a starter for fumbling? Has it ever happened?

 

[Blackjacks]

I am pretty sure Tiki Barber had fumble problems under Coughlin which led to more carries from Jacobs back in the day. Then Jacobs had fumble problems which opened the door for Bradshaw and then Bradshaw had problems and it opened the door for D. Ward and then last year Bradshaw had fumbles and D Wilson had his one (with a concern for more) and Brown started getting more carries.

Not looking through stats but I am pretty confident that all this is correct.

 

[gianmarco]

I am pretty sure Tiki Barber had fumble problems under Coughlin which led to more carries from Jacobs back in the day. Then Jacobs had fumble problems which opened the door for Bradshaw and then Bradshaw had problems and it opened the door for D. Ward and then last year Bradshaw had fumbles and D Wilson had his one (with a concern for more) and Brown started getting more carries.

Not looking through stats but I am pretty confident that all this is correct.

It's not.

 

[Dippa]

I am pretty sure Tiki Barber had fumble problems under Coughlin which led to more carries from Jacobs back in the day. Then Jacobs had fumble problems which opened the door for Bradshaw and then Bradshaw had problems and it opened the door for D. Ward and then last year Bradshaw had fumbles and D Wilson had his one (with a concern for more) and Brown started getting more carries.

Not looking through stats but I am pretty confident that all this is correct.

Tiki had 16 fumbles in 3 years from 2002-2004. Then in Jacobs' first 2 years, Tiki had over 2,000 combined yards each year on about 400 touches each year. Jacobs did not eat into his workload much in Tiki's last 2 years.

When Bradshaw began taking the starting job in 2009/2010, he fumbled more than Jacobs each year, and still took over the job. In Bradshaws career year in 2010, he fumbled 7 times and retained the starting job.

Last year, fumbles didn't lead to an increase in carries for Brown, check the game logs. Not sure where you came up with that.

Sorry, not buying it.

 

[ol blues]

RB2 skills and with Brown around for short yardage and in close work his current ADP seems about right. He's someone you want to believe can excel, but there are too many weaknesses in his game to warrant a reach.

Name 2.

I'm unsure why you want to discuss just 2 of Wilson's limitations. Spotlights should explore all of a player's strengths and weaknesses. But let's limit ourselves as you suggest. Consider his running style. Too frequently he runs very upright and initiates contact...or has contact initiated...without sufficiently lowering his pads. Some of the problems with that running style follow.

Injuries. While I don't believe you can accurately forecast injuries, the frequency of injury to upright postured RBs is noteworthy. It may pressage injury proclivity. Daniel Thomas, RunDMC and DeMarco Murray come to mind, and all have significant injury histories, but then so does AP and I don't particularly consider him an injury risk.

Loss of leverage. Upright runners lose leverage on contact and underperform in short yardage necessitating having an Andre Brown around for close in work. The reduction of goal line work hurts fantasy production but close in work exacts a wear and tear price that, with a possible predisposition to injury, is likely worth avoiding. Many shorter runners like Wilson just don't seem to get the power advantage naturally afforded by a lower leveraged running style (e.g., MJD's).

Ball security. Upright runners expose more of themselves and the ball to defenders. I was, however, quite surprised that Wilson fumbled so infrequently as a rookie. With more work I would expect more fumbles and a higher fumble frequency, although I don't believe Coughlin is as adverse to fumbling RBs as is commonly believed.

I'm at 3 weaknesses so I've exceeded your limits, but let me add that, without reaching for him, Wilson figures to be on more than one of my redraft teams. Yes, Andre Brown limits his upside, but Wilson should yield solid RB2 numbers.

 

[RBM]

235/1152/7

30/235/1

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

235/1152/7

30/235/1

Honestly, I think even this modest estimate may prove to be high and his ceiling isn't nearly as high as some may hope. I just don't see him getting the opportunity to put up sky high numbers based on how Coughlin has used his backs in the past until they play up to his trust. That is, of course, assuming his YPC isn't hitting 5+ yards for the season which I guess is in the realm of possibility... what was AP's YPC last year? Before I continue I'm included in the hopeful group, I bought into Wilson when he was drafted and he will be the difference for me this coming year between dominance and hoping for someone else on my fantasy team to step up. And yet I can't seem to say hey, he's gonna blow up this year. I can make one guarantee though, he will be one of the most talked about RB all year on this board.

The key factor imo is trust. Coughlin has shown time and time again he will go with as many backs as he needs to until one back can gain his trust. That was Tiki. That was Bradshaw for the years he was healthy. I don't think Jacobs ever got there. Wilson is not there yet and that is what is keeping me from giving him a high projection. Bradshaw's best year for fantasy stats was 276/1235/8 47/314/0. This is nowhere near Tiki's stat lines year after year when he was getting 320+ carries. This also is nowhere near where Wilson will end up this year. Torain also concerns me. Depending on what kind of role he carves out for himself, there have been plenty of seasons with D Ward and DJ Ware where Coughlin turns into Shanahan for a weekend or two in a season. Any fantasy owners with stakes in NYG RB's after Tiki Barber left I'm sure can relate to that. I am not saying Torain is any threat to the starting job, not even close, but injuries and the proverbial dog house has a way of coming into play in New York too often.

High risk high reward? More like high risk low RB1 upside guy who will probably be drafted too high in 2013 imo. Luckily I didn't pay too much for him in a keeper league when he was still just an upside behind Bradshaw, but he'll be too expensive in redrafts this year unless something major happens before the season. I was much more optimistic about him last year, I certainly hope my projections turn out to be waaaaaay too conservative.

235/1055/7

28/275/1

 

[netnalp]

I think a lot on this board are downplaying the fumbles due to only 1 (even though it was a problem coming out of college as well) but it also limited his touches last year which of course made his total fumbles lower.

If people high on Wilson are expecting 4x the touches than why wouldn't you expect 4x the fumbles.

I think the pass blocking and his trying to bounce runs outside were a bigger factor. In camp and with his earlier runs Wilson had runs go for a loss. As the season progressed he had less runs for loss because he started waiting for the blocks to develop. A common issue for rookies with speed.

If the one fumble was the major factor, then Wilson would probably have been taken off of kick returns.

 

[RBM]

235/1152/7

30/235/1

Honestly, I think even this modest estimate may prove to be high and his ceiling isn't nearly as high as some may hope. I just don't see him getting the opportunity to put up sky high numbers based on how Coughlin has used his backs in the past until they play up to his trust. That is, of course, assuming his YPC isn't hitting 5+ yards for the season which I guess is in the realm of possibility... what was AP's YPC last year? Before I continue I'm included in the hopeful group, I bought into Wilson when he was drafted and he will be the difference for me this coming year between dominance and hoping for someone else on my fantasy team to step up. And yet I can't seem to say hey, he's gonna blow up this year. I can make one guarantee though, he will be one of the most talked about RB all year on this board.

The key factor imo is trust. Coughlin has shown time and time again he will go with as many backs as he needs to until one back can gain his trust. That was Tiki. That was Bradshaw for the years he was healthy. I don't think Jacobs ever got there. Wilson is not there yet and that is what is keeping me from giving him a high projection. Bradshaw's best year for fantasy stats was 276/1235/8 47/314/0. This is nowhere near Tiki's stat lines year after year when he was getting 320+ carries. This also is nowhere near where Wilson will end up this year. Torain also concerns me. Depending on what kind of role he carves out for himself, there have been plenty of seasons with D Ward and DJ Ware where Coughlin turns into Shanahan for a weekend or two in a season. Any fantasy owners with stakes in NYG RB's after Tiki Barber left I'm sure can relate to that. I am not saying Torain is any threat to the starting job, not even close, but injuries and the proverbial dog house has a way of coming into play in New York too often.

High risk high reward? More like high risk low RB1 upside guy who will probably be drafted too high in 2013 imo. Luckily I didn't pay too much for him in a keeper league when he was still just an upside behind Bradshaw, but he'll be too expensive in redrafts this year unless something major happens before the season. I was much more optimistic about him last year, I certainly hope my projections turn out to be waaaaaay too conservative.

235/1055/7

28/275/1

Your whole post reads like you're not going to project him for a big load, but then give him the same amount of carries as I did. You just don't think he will be as effective.

AP had 350 carries last year...with 6 yards a pop.

 

[RBM]

He has the talent to emerge as an RB1, but it might take some games much like it did with Doug Martin last year before you seem him explode. If you invest, hold. I had an owner give up on Martin being a significant producer in 2012 and traded Martin and Cobb for Ridley. The next week was his breakout. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wilson’s season arc follow suit but without the Martin upside since the Giants have a guy like Andre Brown to work in.

Prediction: 227 Rushes 1105 Rushing Yards 6 TD’s, 27 Receptions 247 Receiving Yards 2 TD’s.

Don't you think Blount is comparable to Brown?

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

235/1152/7

30/235/1

Honestly, I think even this modest estimate may prove to be high and his ceiling isn't nearly as high as some may hope. I just don't see him getting the opportunity to put up sky high numbers based on how Coughlin has used his backs in the past until they play up to his trust. That is, of course, assuming his YPC isn't hitting 5+ yards for the season which I guess is in the realm of possibility... what was AP's YPC last year? Before I continue I'm included in the hopeful group, I bought into Wilson when he was drafted and he will be the difference for me this coming year between dominance and hoping for someone else on my fantasy team to step up. And yet I can't seem to say hey, he's gonna blow up this year. I can make one guarantee though, he will be one of the most talked about RB all year on this board.

The key factor imo is trust. Coughlin has shown time and time again he will go with as many backs as he needs to until one back can gain his trust. That was Tiki. That was Bradshaw for the years he was healthy. I don't think Jacobs ever got there. Wilson is not there yet and that is what is keeping me from giving him a high projection. Bradshaw's best year for fantasy stats was 276/1235/8 47/314/0. This is nowhere near Tiki's stat lines year after year when he was getting 320+ carries. This also is nowhere near where Wilson will end up this year. Torain also concerns me. Depending on what kind of role he carves out for himself, there have been plenty of seasons with D Ward and DJ Ware where Coughlin turns into Shanahan for a weekend or two in a season. Any fantasy owners with stakes in NYG RB's after Tiki Barber left I'm sure can relate to that. I am not saying Torain is any threat to the starting job, not even close, but injuries and the proverbial dog house has a way of coming into play in New York too often.

High risk high reward? More like high risk low RB1 upside guy who will probably be drafted too high in 2013 imo. Luckily I didn't pay too much for him in a keeper league when he was still just an upside behind Bradshaw, but he'll be too expensive in redrafts this year unless something major happens before the season. I was much more optimistic about him last year, I certainly hope my projections turn out to be waaaaaay too conservative.

235/1055/7

28/275/1

Your whole post reads like you're not going to project him for a big load, but then give him the same amount of carries as I did. You just don't think he will be as effective.

AP had 350 carries last year...with 6 yards a pop.

my post was suppose to read like I agree with your projection but that I want to give him so much more as a biased owner.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

He has the talent to emerge as an RB1, but it might take some games much like it did with Doug Martin last year before you seem him explode. If you invest, hold. I had an owner give up on Martin being a significant producer in 2012 and traded Martin and Cobb for Ridley. The next week was his breakout. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wilson’s season arc follow suit but without the Martin upside since the Giants have a guy like Andre Brown to work in.

Prediction: 227 Rushes 1105 Rushing Yards 6 TD’s, 27 Receptions 247 Receiving Yards 2 TD’s.

Don't you think Blount is comparable to Brown?

Not sure if I could compare the two between Brown/Blount, but there are certainly differences between Wilson/Martin and the Giants/Bucs...Coughlin/Schiano that I think will limit how much the Giants put on Wilson's plate. Martin was 3rd in the NFL in touches in 2012. Wilson won't come close to that and while 254 seems limited...I think the Giants are going to be a little more cautious with him.

 

[TheFanatic]

I think a lot on this board are downplaying the fumbles due to only 1 (even though it was a problem coming out of college as well) but it also limited his touches last year which of course made his total fumbles lower.

If people high on Wilson are expecting 4x the touches than why wouldn't you expect 4x the fumbles.

David Wilson had a fumble on his second carry. Based on your logic, when he started late in the season, of his 70 something carries, he should've had 35+ fumbles.

Even if this silly logic were true, 4 fumbles over a season is not ridiculously high. It's not low, but it's not high. 1 fumble every 4 games?

But it's not a hard and fast, linear number. Just because he had 1 fumble in 75 carries or so does not mean if he has 300 carries he will have 4 fumbles. He could have 10 fumbles or he could have none. Or he could carry the ball 280 times through 15 game and in his last game have two fumbles.

 

[Blackjacks]

I agree completely fanatic and again I like Wilson but a "big concern" coming out of college was that he fumbled a lot.

His skills are phenomenal and I think he has a HUGE upside BUT if he gets more work and continues fumbling Coughlin will make adjustments.

When he gets more carries and gets tired or goal line touches are we going to see an issue?????

I don't know. I was just stating that with more touches and more yards also COULD arise a negative.

I hope it doesn't as I plan on drafting him and think he could have a very good year but the concern is there in the back of my mind.

 

[Air Stich]

I don't think the carries are going to be close between Brown and Wilson.

265 carries, 1,300 yards, 9 TDs

30 catches, 240 yards, 2 TDs

 

[Grahamburn]

I don't think the carries are going to be close between Brown and Wilson.

265 carries, 1,300 yards, 9 TDs

30 catches, 240 yards, 2 TDs

Part of the problem is the carries at the stripe aren't likely to be close either.

 

[JPeso]

220 rush / 1210 yards / 8 TD ; 35 catches / 350 rec yards / 2 TD = 251 PPR ; 15.7 PPR PPG

 

[dewaser]

243 rushes, 1276 yards

37 catches. 281 yards

 

[Air Stich]

I don't think the carries are going to be close between Brown and Wilson.

265 carries, 1,300 yards, 9 TDs

30 catches, 240 yards, 2 TDs

Part of the problem is the carries at the stripe aren't likely to be close either.

I knocked 2 rushing TDs off of my projections due to that fact.

 

[simey]

I am pretty sure Tiki Barber had fumble problems under Coughlin which led to more carries from Jacobs back in the day.

Tiki only lost two fumbles during the two years he played with Jacobs. That did not lead to more carries for Jacobs.