Player Spotlight: DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Player Page Link: DeMarco Murray Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections
  

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
  

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Gawain]

Some people won't touch him after injuries in 2011 and 2012. Others will think he's due for an injury free campaign. He was durable at OU and none of his injuries in the pros seem to be the chronic type, so I believe he's no likelier to be hurt than any other back. Joseph Randle and Phillip Tanner are not a threat to carve out more of a role and the Cowboys let Jones go in the offseason. This is Murray's load to carry and 2013 is likely his make-or-break year. He has had a decent to good YPC during his career and the Cowboys O-Line should be slightly better. Murray also is a good receiver out of the backfield making him a better PPR play.

240 carries, 1080 yards (4.5 YPC), 8 TDs

45 receptions, 340 yards (7.5 YPC), 2 TDs

 

[FF Ninja]

Coming out of college a lot of people pegged him to be a 3rd down back in the NFL. I agreed then and I still agree. He caught a couple teams off guard his rookie year and hasn't done anything since then. He has not been a good early down runner, but he's a great pass catcher and he has the speed to get to the outside. But the Cowboys decided to stand pat one more year so I guess we're going to watch him put up mediocre rushing numbers coupled with a lot of receptions (just like he did in college). Jerry isn't helping him out with that offensive line.

Despite the fact that he's a poor early down runner, he could still have a lot of value if two things occur: (1) he stays healthy (2) he scores touchdowns.

So far he hasn't done either. 384 touches and just 6 TDs to show for it. If he's such a homerun threat and so good in space then why hasn't he scored on a single one of his 60 receptions? In fact, he's averaging just 7.2 ypr which can't be blamed on the offensive line.

I can't throw out a projection for him. I don't like predicting injury, but I can't fathom a season of him puttering around at his current pace. I mean, it looks like they'd let him have 18 carries a game and 4 receptions. Even at 4 ypc and 7 ypr, that would be 100 yards. A solid total, but they need more out of their run game to keep defenses honest. I wouldn't mind seeing Bradshaw here.

 

[Frank Black]

I agree that it's hard to throw out prejections on him. I see him as as #3 RB, due to lack of TDs and health. Other than the occasional big game, he doesn't offer much regular upside even when he plays. He isn't worth the #2 RB price tag in drafts.

 

[Concept Coop]

I agree that it's hard to throw out prejections on him. I see him as as #3 RB, due to lack of TDs and health. Other than the occasional big game, he doesn't offer much regular upside even when he plays. He isn't worth the #2 RB price tag in drafts.

In PPR leagues, he does. He's a consistant RB2, even outside of those big games.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Coming out of college a lot of people pegged him to be a 3rd down back in the NFL. I agreed then and I still agree. He caught a couple teams off guard his rookie year and hasn't done anything since then. He has not been a good early down runner, but he's a great pass catcher and he has the speed to get to the outside. But the Cowboys decided to stand pat one more year so I guess we're going to watch him put up mediocre rushing numbers coupled with a lot of receptions (just like he did in college). Jerry isn't helping him out with that offensive line.

Despite the fact that he's a poor early down runner, he could still have a lot of value if two things occur: (1) he stays healthy (2) he scores touchdowns.

To be fair, Murray's stats counting only 1st and 2nd down rushes: 299-1446, 4.84ypc

By comparison, over that same span Felix Jones on 1st and 2nd down behind the same line: 227-930, 4.0ypc

With the same criteria, Philip Tanner is at 3.2ypc and Lance Dunbar at 3.6ypc, though their sample sizes are small.

 

[Ghost Rider]

There is a lot to like about Murray, but I fear that, even despite his injury problems again last year, he will be overvalued again this year. The fact that Dallas seems to hate running the ball inside the 10 could take a handful of touchdowns away from him, and it is always dangerous to count on a RB scoring a lot of touchdowns if most of them have to be from long distances (unless your name is Barry Sanders of Jamaal Charles). It is hard to project for Murray, as God only knows if he will be healthy all season, but 75-80 rushing yards per game, 2-3 catches a game and a touchdown every other game seems like a pretty good average, so figure out how many games you think he will play and then do the math.

 

[Concept Coop]

Coming out of college a lot of people pegged him to be a 3rd down back in the NFL. I agreed then and I still agree. He caught a couple teams off guard his rookie year and hasn't done anything since then. He has not been a good early down runner, but he's a great pass catcher and he has the speed to get to the outside. But the Cowboys decided to stand pat one more year so I guess we're going to watch him put up mediocre rushing numbers coupled with a lot of receptions (just like he did in college). Jerry isn't helping him out with that offensive line.

Despite the fact that he's a poor early down runner, he could still have a lot of value if two things occur: (1) he stays healthy (2) he scores touchdowns.

So far he hasn't done either. 384 touches and just 6 TDs to show for it. If he's such a homerun threat and so good in space then why hasn't he scored on a single one of his 60 receptions? In fact, he's averaging just 7.2 ypr which can't be blamed on the offensive line.

I can't throw out a projection for him. I don't like predicting injury, but I can't fathom a season of him puttering around at his current pace. I mean, it looks like they'd let him have 18 carries a game and 4 receptions. Even at 4 ypc and 7 ypr, that would be 100 yards. A solid total, but they need more out of their run game to keep defenses honest. I wouldn't mind seeing Bradshaw here.

Confirmation bias in full effect, here. You're picking random stats and applying questionable context to them.

He's not a poor early down runner. He's been very tough, actually - a change of pace for the Cowboys. He’s had an awful power blocking offensive line, which should get better this year. He’s a good NFL RB who catches a lot of balls out of the backfield. If he can stay healthy, he’ll produce.

100 yards and 4 receptions is14 points on average, with ZERO projected TDs.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

When you watch him you see the obvious big time talent to run the ball. There is no other RB threat in their backfield.

He does have an issue with injuries. The Cowboys keep investing in oline and have a very threatening pass game.

He just turned 25 and is in prime position to put out serious fantasy points, especially when you include his ability to receive.

13 games

225 carries

1020 yards

45 catches

330 yards

1350 total and 7 TDs.

He was on pace for 17.8 carries a game and 3.6 catches before being injured halfway through game 5.

Should he be able to maintain those levels and play a full slate, he could rush for 1200-1300 and catch 400 more as a reasonable ceiling.

 

[fightingillini]

If we knew if Murray could stay healthy, he would be mentioned among the top 10 RBs, and would be a nice RB2 in PPR, despite not being a big TD producer. DAL should provide plenty of opportunities for Murray to increase his TD totals. Is your classic boom or bust type pick. ADP is early 3rd round, perhaps a bit rich for my taste. I would rather take 2 very good WRs or 1 very good WR and an elite QB to go with a top 5 RB and pass on Murray.

225 car, 975 rush yds, 7 TD

47 rec, 320 rec yds, 1 TD

 

[Dragon1952]

I'm extremely surprised Dodds, Tremblay and Wood all project Murray playing all 16 games this year. Considering his propensity for injury you'd think that was a little too optimistic.

 

[FF Ninja]

Coming out of college a lot of people pegged him to be a 3rd down back in the NFL. I agreed then and I still agree. He caught a couple teams off guard his rookie year and hasn't done anything since then. He has not been a good early down runner, but he's a great pass catcher and he has the speed to get to the outside. But the Cowboys decided to stand pat one more year so I guess we're going to watch him put up mediocre rushing numbers coupled with a lot of receptions (just like he did in college). Jerry isn't helping him out with that offensive line.

Despite the fact that he's a poor early down runner, he could still have a lot of value if two things occur: (1) he stays healthy (2) he scores touchdowns.

So far he hasn't done either. 384 touches and just 6 TDs to show for it. If he's such a homerun threat and so good in space then why hasn't he scored on a single one of his 60 receptions? In fact, he's averaging just 7.2 ypr which can't be blamed on the offensive line.

I can't throw out a projection for him. I don't like predicting injury, but I can't fathom a season of him puttering around at his current pace. I mean, it looks like they'd let him have 18 carries a game and 4 receptions. Even at 4 ypc and 7 ypr, that would be 100 yards. A solid total, but they need more out of their run game to keep defenses honest. I wouldn't mind seeing Bradshaw here.

Confirmation bias in full effect, here. You're picking random stats and applying questionable context to them.

He's not a poor early down runner. He's been very tough, actually - a change of pace for the Cowboys. He’s had an awful power blocking offensive line, which should get better this year. He’s a good NFL RB who catches a lot of balls out of the backfield. If he can stay healthy, he’ll produce.

100 yards and 4 receptions is14 points on average, with ZERO projected TDs.

Haha, I'm very familiar with confirmation bias. I was just thinking a few months ago that confirmation bias is the #1 objective for 95% of the people who post in the SP. Everyone is just looking for people to agree with them and they blast those who don't. I'm not sure why you say that's what my post is, though. Because I thought he wasn't going to be an early down back in college and so far he hasn't produced well on early downs? I totally agree that the offensive line has been a problem, and I stated so in my first post. And I also said that if he can stay healthy he'll produce. Although I don't think it'll be due to talent - his workload alone will give him the stats he needs to be relevant. I just don't think that he's good enough to shine and I don't think he's durable enough to compile stats. The Cowboys should sign Beanie and split the duties.

And I don't know why you say "he's not a poor early down runner. He's very tough" as if that settles something. Being tough is nice, but that doesn't make him productive. And we're not that far removed from Marion Barber that we can say being a tough runner is a nice change of pace for the Cowboys. The difference between the two is that Marion was built to be a tough runner and he was effective at it. Murray is neither.

You say the offensive line will be better this year? I don't know why that is. Because they reached in the draft for an interior lineman? Maybe he's an upgrade, maybe he's a bust. Right now I'm going to call it a wash. If you blame the line for his woes last year, you shouldn't be high on him this year.

P.S. 100 yards and 4 receptions is 10 points in real leagues.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I'm not sure why you say that's what my post is, though. Because I thought he wasn't going to be an early down back in college and so far he hasn't produced well on early downs? I totally agree that the offensive line has been a problem, and I stated so in my first post. And I also said that if he can stay healthy he'll produce. Although I don't think it'll be due to talent - his workload alone will give him the stats he needs to be relevant. I just don't think that he's good enough to shine and I don't think he's durable enough to compile stats. The Cowboys should sign Beanie and split the duties.

And I don't know why you say "he's not a poor early down runner. He's very tough" as if that settles something. Being tough is nice, but that doesn't make him productive. And we're not that far removed from Marion Barber that we can say being a tough runner is a nice change of pace for the Cowboys. The difference between the two is that Marion was built to be a tough runner and he was effective at it. Murray is neither.

I'm not sure where you're getting this. Statistically he's been best on 1st down, next best on 2nd down, and worst on 3rd down. His ypc on 1st/2nd down only is 4.84, which is a full yard higher than the average of his peers on the same team on 1st/2nd down and 0.84ypc higher than the next closest person (Felix).

How does all of this add up to him not being a good early down runner?

 

[Concept Coop]

Coming out of college a lot of people pegged him to be a 3rd down back in the NFL. I agreed then and I still agree. He caught a couple teams off guard his rookie year and hasn't done anything since then. He has not been a good early down runner, but he's a great pass catcher and he has the speed to get to the outside. But the Cowboys decided to stand pat one more year so I guess we're going to watch him put up mediocre rushing numbers coupled with a lot of receptions (just like he did in college). Jerry isn't helping him out with that offensive line.

Despite the fact that he's a poor early down runner, he could still have a lot of value if two things occur: (1) he stays healthy (2) he scores touchdowns.

So far he hasn't done either. 384 touches and just 6 TDs to show for it. If he's such a homerun threat and so good in space then why hasn't he scored on a single one of his 60 receptions? In fact, he's averaging just 7.2 ypr which can't be blamed on the offensive line.

I can't throw out a projection for him. I don't like predicting injury, but I can't fathom a season of him puttering around at his current pace. I mean, it looks like they'd let him have 18 carries a game and 4 receptions. Even at 4 ypc and 7 ypr, that would be 100 yards. A solid total, but they need more out of their run game to keep defenses honest. I wouldn't mind seeing Bradshaw here.

Confirmation bias in full effect, here. You're picking random stats and applying questionable context to them.

He's not a poor early down runner. He's been very tough, actually - a change of pace for the Cowboys. He’s had an awful power blocking offensive line, which should get better this year. He’s a good NFL RB who catches a lot of balls out of the backfield. If he can stay healthy, he’ll produce.

100 yards and 4 receptions is14 points on average, with ZERO projected TDs.

Haha, I'm very familiar with confirmation bias. I was just thinking a few months ago that confirmation bias is the #1 objective for 95% of the people who post in the SP. Everyone is just looking for people to agree with them and they blast those who don't. I'm not sure why you say that's what my post is, though. Because I thought he wasn't going to be an early down back in college and so far he hasn't produced well on early downs? I totally agree that the offensive line has been a problem, and I stated so in my first post. And I also said that if he can stay healthy he'll produce. Although I don't think it'll be due to talent - his workload alone will give him the stats he needs to be relevant. I just don't think that he's good enough to shine and I don't think he's durable enough to compile stats. The Cowboys should sign Beanie and split the duties.

And I don't know why you say "he's not a poor early down runner. He's very tough" as if that settles something. Being tough is nice, but that doesn't make him productive. And we're not that far removed from Marion Barber that we can say being a tough runner is a nice change of pace for the Cowboys. The difference between the two is that Marion was built to be a tough runner and he was effective at it. Murray is neither.

You say the offensive line will be better this year? I don't know why that is. Because they reached in the draft for an interior lineman? Maybe he's an upgrade, maybe he's a bust. Right now I'm going to call it a wash. If you blame the line for his woes last year, you shouldn't be high on him this year.

P.S. 100 yards and 4 receptions is 10 points in real leagues.

[SIZE=10.5pt]The offensive line is better because they are healthy; and yes, they replaced an awful starting center with a question mark. Give me a 'maybe' over a major weakness. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]You think he wasn't a good early down lineman in college due to his Jr and SR YPC. I point out that his Freshman and Sophomore YPC were great, and they are dismissed. I guess he forgot how to be a good early down RB.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]If you watch the Cowboys play – Murray’s toughness and power as a runner, when healthy, shouldn’t be a question mark. I’m not interesting in a collection of stats put together with the intent of proving a point. He put up great numbers in the NFL when healhty, and was a complete, productive, workhorse in college. [/SIZE]

 

[Winning IS Everything]

If we knew if Murray could stay healthy, he would be mentioned among the top 10 RBs, and would be a nice RB2 in PPR, despite not being a big TD producer. DAL should provide plenty of opportunities for Murray to increase his TD totals. Is your classic boom or bust type pick. ADP is early 3rd round, perhaps a bit rich for my taste. I would rather take 2 very good WRs or 1 very good WR and an elite QB to go with a top 5 RB and pass on Murray.

225 car, 975 rush yds, 7 TD

47 rec, 320 rec yds, 1 TD

I agree with this post, and when I did my projections, I had to do a double take at the above as mine are almost identical. My projections are:

225-967-6 TD Rush

45-324-1 TD Rec.

 

[FF Ninja]

[SIZE=10.5pt]The offensive line is better because they are healthy; and yes, they replaced an awful starting center with a question mark. Give me a 'maybe' over a major weakness. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]You think he wasn't a good early down lineman in college due to his Jr and SR YPC. I point out that his Freshman and Sophomore YPC were great, and they are dismissed. I guess he forgot how to be a good early down RB.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]If you watch the Cowboys play – Murray’s toughness and power as a runner, when healthy, shouldn’t be a question mark. I’m not interesting in a collection of stats put together with the intent of proving a point. He put up great numbers in the NFL when healhty, and was a complete, productive, workhorse in college. [/SIZE]

From Matt Bitonti's article:

The Cowboys drafted Wisconsin center Travis Frederick in the late first round, which some have dubbed a reach. Frederick didn't work out well at the combine but he comes from a fine school for linemen and has been a prominent prospect for years. The latest word has Frederick sliding over to guard as the Cowboys may want to move on from Mackenzy Bearnadeau more than they want to move on from Phil Costa.

So I'm not sure they are replacing that center that you so despise.

Murray also wasn't a very good early down back last year in the NFL. That's more relevant than his first two years in college.

When have I questioned his toughness and power? I could not care less about these subjective measurements. Whether he's tough as nails or has the pain threshold of a 3 year old girl, the guy doesn't perform like an early down runner, he doesn't score touchdowns, and he misses a lot of time due to injury.

I often find myself agreeing with you, but I'm not sure why you've got such a hard-on for a marginal player like Murray. I mean, if you were just arguing that he's in a great situation I'd absolutely agree with you. Potent offense, plenty of receptions, no competition to speak of... the offensive line is about the only sticking point there is. I just don't see the talent.

 

[Concept Coop]

Murray also wasn't a very good early down back last year in the NFL. That's more relevant than his first two years in college.

When have I questioned his toughness and power? I could not care less about these subjective measurements. Whether he's tough as nails or has the pain threshold of a 3 year old girl, the guy doesn't perform like an early down runner, he doesn't score touchdowns, and he misses a lot of time due to injury.

I often find myself agreeing with you, but I'm not sure why you've got such a hard-on for a marginal player like Murray. I mean, if you were just arguing that he's in a great situation I'd absolutely agree with you. Potent offense, plenty of receptions, no competition to speak of... the offensive line is about the only sticking point there is. I just don't see the talent.

He was injured last season, and, again, the Cowboys offensive line was injured - at one point they started a game with one week 1 starter playing his own position.

He has a career average of 4.8 YPC, including this season - 5.5 YPC last. He's a very good NFL RB and has produced when healthy. He has very good balance, vision and (not so much last year on a bad wheel) homerun speed.

He is either injury prone, or he's not. I don't have the answer to that, and we'll see. He missed 1 game over his last 2 seasons at OU, and both of his NFL injuries were unrelated, not chronic, and caused by awkward contact/tackles. I don't know if that makes a guy injury prone. Again, that part I am not arguing.

But I don't understand the claim that he's not a good early down back.

 

[Zdravko]

Two injuries in two seasons say injury-prone until proven otherwise. The history at OU surely gives hope, but that's about it.

With that disclaimer above, when healthy Murray is easily top-10 RB with serious upside, especially in PPR. The power is there, the speed is there, the hands are there, the punishing mentality is also there (which might not be helping with the injuries). I find claims like 'he is not a good early-down back' very perplexing.

Bottomline, you can pass on Murray because injury risk scares you, but I personally would have zero hesitation drafting, then picking up in the last round Randle just in case, and being a little more attentive than usual who my RB3 is. Yes, in some circumstances it might not work, but on the balance Murray is superb value at RB15. When healthy, you are getting production way in excess of ADP and that's what wins championships most years.

Pro-rated over 16: 230 carries, 1050 yards, 50 receptions, 400 yards, 10 combined TDs

 

[FF Ninja]

Murray also wasn't a very good early down back last year in the NFL. That's more relevant than his first two years in college.

When have I questioned his toughness and power? I could not care less about these subjective measurements. Whether he's tough as nails or has the pain threshold of a 3 year old girl, the guy doesn't perform like an early down runner, he doesn't score touchdowns, and he misses a lot of time due to injury.

I often find myself agreeing with you, but I'm not sure why you've got such a hard-on for a marginal player like Murray. I mean, if you were just arguing that he's in a great situation I'd absolutely agree with you. Potent offense, plenty of receptions, no competition to speak of... the offensive line is about the only sticking point there is. I just don't see the talent.

He was injured last season, and, again, the Cowboys offensive line was injured - at one point they started a game with one week 1 starter playing his own position.

He has a career average of 4.8 YPC, including this season - 5.5 YPC last. He's a very good NFL RB and has produced when healthy. He has very good balance, vision and (not so much last year on a bad wheel) homerun speed.

He is either injury prone, or he's not. I don't have the answer to that, and we'll see. He missed 1 game over his last 2 seasons at OU, and both of his NFL injuries were unrelated, not chronic, and caused by awkward contact/tackles. I don't know if that makes a guy injury prone. Again, that part I am not arguing.

But I don't understand the claim that he's not a good early down back.

Felix Jones has a career average of 4.8 ypc, too, and he was also perpetually on a bad wheel. I don't think you have to be a very good NFL RB to put up those numbers on this team. Plus, 1/6th of Murray's yardage still comes from that fluky StL game that included a 91 yard TD, so I don't know that I'd get too cozy with his aggregate statistics. He still hasn't done very much, yet people want to believe he's a stud. His last four years of football have not actually been that impressive.

In fact, Felix Jones has scored 14 touchdowns on 698 touches. Murray has scored 6 touchdowns on 384 touches. Jones edges him 8.3 to 7.2 in yards per reception as well. Nothing wrong with 7.2 ypr, but it doesn't scream vision or good in space or homerun threat. Not everyone can be Shonn Greene (career 7.4 ypr).

I don't actually think Felix is a very good running back so I'm not trying to make this into one of those Jones vs. Murray debates, but it's hard to make a case for Murray deserving his hype other than by citing a couple games from 2011.

 

[Concept Coop]

Felix Jones has a career average of 4.8 ypc, too, and he was also perpetually on a bad wheel. I don't think you have to be a very good NFL RB to put up those numbers on this team. Plus, 1/6th of Murray's yardage still comes from that fluky StL game that included a 91 yard TD, so I don't know that I'd get too cozy with his aggregate statistics. He still hasn't done very much, yet people want to believe he's a stud. His last four years of football have not actually been that impressive.

In fact, Felix Jones has scored 14 touchdowns on 698 touches. Murray has scored 6 touchdowns on 384 touches. Jones edges him 8.3 to 7.2 in yards per reception as well. Nothing wrong with 7.2 ypr, but it doesn't scream vision or good in space or homerun threat. Not everyone can be Shonn Greene (career 7.4 ypr).

I don't actually think Felix is a very good running back so I'm not trying to make this into one of those Jones vs. Murray debates, but it's hard to make a case for Murray deserving his hype other than by citing a couple games from 2011.

Felix Jones was very explosive, and broke a lot of big runs. He couldn't stay on the field as he was always dinged up and out of shape. Posting a comparable YPC while in a different role with more short yardage work - that's not a negative. Also, there were a couple years where Felix was running behind 3 pro-bowlers and one of the biggest, strongest, and best lines in the league. Clearly that was never the case for Murray.

You're cherry picking - you're using stats to justify your stance, then giving reasons for us to ignore stats that don't. Murray has been very productive with the football in his hands. You've given me no reason to ignore that or predict it to change.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Felix Jones has a career average of 4.8 ypc, too, and he was also perpetually on a bad wheel. I don't think you have to be a very good NFL RB to put up those numbers on this team.

If you don't have to be a good running back to do it, you'd think someone else would have done it.

YPC in Dallas over the last 2 years..

Murray: 4.8

Felix: 4.0

Dunbar: 3.5

Morris: 3.5

Tanner: 2.9

Choice: 2.6

Obviously it's not some great running situation, as everyone, except Murray, has struggled to run there. It's also extremely disingenuous to point out a flukey stat like TDs to try and compare Felix/Murray but leave out one like YPC which is much more indicative of how they're actually performing. But I guess when you're cherry picking stats out to try and prove a point rather than looking at the stats and trying to deduce a point out of them, that's what happens.

 

[Tanner9919]

Bill Callahan is calling plays..

 

[TheDirtyWord]

While Murray has not quite entered into Darren McFadden territory, he certainly now comes with a fully visible ’Buyer Beware’ warning. When healthy, he’s shown an ability to be a fully dimensional RB capable to bulling his way into defenses for tough yardage while also showing long speed and an ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. Coupled with the fact that he is part of a high potential offense and Murray has the type of upside worthy of a 1st round grade.

But Murray has demonstrated a consistent inability stretching back to his college career to stay healthy. And so owners who jumped onboard his bandwagon in 2012 when it cost a 1st round pick were frustrated beyond belief last year because the opportunity for Murray to produce was there but his malingering week-to-week status after his injury in October forced owners into standby mode for the latter half of the season. What seemed to be week-to-week injury turned out to be 7 weeks. It’s one thing to be seen as injury prone…but there are players who play with injuries or find a way onto the field. It’s the slow healers who can kill you.

It’s with this memory that you’ll have to make a call on Murray. His 16 game prorated numbers would have translated to a 1462 YFS/6-7 TD production line which would have put him in the low RB1/high RB2 category. So from a draft position perspective, he pretty much came in about where he should have in 2012. With the emergence of Dez Bryant as a true week in, week out game breaking weapon, it will be interesting to see if Murray with Bryant/Austin/Witten garnering attention in the passing game, can Murray can come in under the radar a bit?

At the end of the day, Murray has shown that when healthy, he’s a significant producer. However, his track record isn’t all that long and in two pro seasons, he’s suffered injuries in each that have taken him out of the line-up for extended time. He’s the type of player I might take a chance on in Round 3 if I don’t like my upside options where I’m drafting. And if he can put together a full 16 game season, it’s almost assured he’ll outperform his draft position (at least where it stands today; early 3rd round). But the injury history is a lot to ignore here and I would peg his chances of playing all 16 games at somewhere between 25-40%. If you can live with that uncertainty and black cloud, it has the potential to pay off.

Prediction (if he can stay healthy): 262 Rushes, 1160 Rushing Yards 6 TD’s, 48 Receptions 343 Receiving Yards 1 TD.

 

[abohnhoff]

Have him on my team but not sure how anyone can trust him as more than a high upside RB3.

Projecting 14 games, which may be a bit optimistic given his history..

210 carries - 925 yards - 6 td's

45 catches - 270 yards - 2 td's

In all reality, a real good option as your RB3 or flex.

 

[Concept Coop]

... not sure how anyone can trust him as more than a high upside RB3.

[SIZE=10.5pt]Unfortunately there aren't 24 guys you can trust as an RB2. You’re going to have to balance your feelings about his injury history and compare it to the risk/reward of other players in that range. Murray won’t be a redraft RB3 unless you plan on going RB-RB-RB, or play in small leagues. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I like him as an RB2, but hope his handcuff situation works itself out and presents a clear option. Those that started Felix while Murray was out still got RB2 production. [/SIZE]

 

[FF Ninja]

Felix Jones has a career average of 4.8 ypc, too, and he was also perpetually on a bad wheel. I don't think you have to be a very good NFL RB to put up those numbers on this team.

If you don't have to be a good running back to do it, you'd think someone else would have done it.

YPC in Dallas over the last 2 years..

Murray: 4.8

Felix: 4.0

Dunbar: 3.5

Morris: 3.5

Tanner: 2.9

Choice: 2.6

Obviously it's not some great running situation, as everyone, except Murray, has struggled to run there. It's also extremely disingenuous to point out a flukey stat like TDs to try and compare Felix/Murray but leave out one like YPC which is much more indicative of how they're actually performing. But I guess when you're cherry picking stats out to try and prove a point rather than looking at the stats and trying to deduce a point out of them, that's what happens.

I can't "cherry pick" stats when there are only a few to pick from. The stats you just used still greatly rely on a couple fluke games for Murray in his rookie year. Last year, he was at 4.1 ypc with the rest of those schlubs. I totally agree that TDs are flukey. I just don't have much to go on here. The Cowboys running game is almost nonexistent. Why they refuse to bring in some talent at running back, I'll never know. Although I will guess that it is Jerry Jones being stubborn. Would still love to see Beanie latch on here during training camp. He'd at least give them a better goal line option.

 

[johnadams]

As RB18ish, I love this guy. He has a legit shot at a top 10 finish if he stays healthy and an outside chance of climbing into the top five. He also has a legit shot at being a weekly game day decision or worse, which is aggravating. The real question is whether or not I want to burn a third round pick on him, which is what seems like it will take to get him. As of right now, I don't think so unless the guys around him are gone (I'd rather have Miller, Wilson, and a few others clustered around his ADP) and I'm at the end of round 3, about to watcht the next group of RBs go before I get a shot at one. But, honestly, I have a hard time taking on that risk at that point in the draft. I usually like guys that I see as this much of an injury risk more in rounds 5+.

 

[Frank Black]

Have him on my team but not sure how anyone can trust him as more than a high upside RB3.

Projecting 14 games, which may be a bit optimistic given his history..

210 carries - 925 yards - 6 td's

45 catches - 270 yards - 2 td's

In all reality, a real good option as your RB3 or flex.

My point exactly in post #4. Furthermore, the games played and the stats you posted may be slightly high. The problem here is that even if those stats pan out, the production isn't likely to be of the consistent level you want from a #2 RB. To compensate for that, you would have to have a strong #3 RB and be even stronger elsewhere on your roster.

Bottom line - his round 3 price tag + durability issues = major headache. If you are in a keeper or dynasty and your situation reasonably allows you to have him as a #3 RB without paying such a high price, that's a better situation.

 

[Concept Coop]

Last year, he was at 4.1 ypc with the rest of those schlubs.

I think we need some context when a guy is physically limping back to the huddle in multiple games. He clearly wasn't 100% after the initial injury.

 

[rdrouyn]

Last year, he was at 4.1 ypc with the rest of those schlubs.

I think we need some context when a guy is physically limping back to the huddle in multiple games. He clearly wasn't 100% after the initial injury.

He also was wearing a protective metal shoe after the injury, so the last 5 games for Murray have that asterisk next to them.

If you average out his carries over the first 5 games though, it raises his ypc to 4.4. Not exactly setting the league on fire or anything.

 

[Concept Coop]

Last year, he was at 4.1 ypc with the rest of those schlubs.

I think we need some context when a guy is physically limping back to the huddle in multiple games. He clearly wasn't 100% after the initial injury.

He also was wearing a protective metal shoe after the injury, so the last 5 games for Murray have that asterisk next to them.

If you average out his carries over the first 5 games though, it raises his ypc to 4.4. Not exactly setting the league on fire or anything.

I don't think anyone is claiming he's top 5. But 4.4 behind that offensive line does more to suggest talent then lack of.

 

[meyerj31]

I took him in a 1 RB + 2 flex at 3.11. I'm having buyer's remorse... wish I would have just taken an older mega producer like Roddy White... but I'm trying to go RB heavy in this league because I always get screwed with not enough RBs.

 

[Papa Georgio]

Maybe mentioned as I just glossed through this but has Dallas done anything to improve their O-Line play? Romo was running for his life and no RB had much room to run in most the games I saw.

Murray is always going to be banged up due to his running style. A huge gamble as a RB 2 that could really pay off or sink you. If he stays healthy you have two RB 1's but if he's hurt then you don't have a RB 2.

 

[Concept Coop]

Maybe mentioned as I just glossed through this but has Dallas done anything to improve their O-Line play? Romo was running for his life and no RB had much room to run in most the games I saw.

They spent their top pick on a center, who should be an upgrade. But the biggest upgrade would come in the form of health, knock on wood. The line was really hampered by injury.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

D. Murray is a running back who gets dinged up. You can project 16 games but there's little chance he'll live up to those numbers, making him overvalued.

975 yards, 7 tds

32 receptions, 335 yards 2tds

 

[ODannyBoy]

Coming out of college a lot of people pegged him to be a 3rd down back in the NFL. I agreed then and I still agree. He caught a couple teams off guard his rookie year and hasn't done anything since then. He has not been a good early down runner, but he's a great pass catcher and he has the speed to get to the outside. But the Cowboys decided to stand pat one more year so I guess we're going to watch him put up mediocre rushing numbers coupled with a lot of receptions (just like he did in college). Jerry isn't helping him out with that offensive line.

Despite the fact that he's a poor early down runner, he could still have a lot of value if two things occur: (1) he stays healthy (2) he scores touchdowns.

To be fair, Murray's stats counting only 1st and 2nd down rushes: 299-1446, 4.84ypc

By comparison, over that same span Felix Jones on 1st and 2nd down behind the same line: 227-930, 4.0ypc

With the same criteria, Philip Tanner is at 3.2ypc and Lance Dunbar at 3.6ypc, though their sample sizes are small.

I love how a team that doesn't run particularly well on the predictable running downs does so because the RB isn't a good early down back as opposed to the o-line, which we know is not good, being the reason.

Shh. Let them keep thinking it. It just lowers Murray's price even more.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I can't decide on this guy. He has no competition, they are dedicating to the run, he was overdrafted last year....but in the 3rd round perhaps he is being underdrafted.

I have the first pick....maybe going RB-RB-RB w/ Murray as one of those picks is the way to go..... I can't decide.

 

[We Tigers]

D. Murray is a running back who gets dinged up. You can project 16 games but there's little chance he'll live up to those numbers, making him overvalued.

975 yards, 7 tds

32 receptions, 335 yards 2tds

Which are you doing? 1300/9 would be a pretty nice year. 1300/9 in, say, 13 games (with a few weeks of replacement production from your bench) would be stellar.

 

[silentcoach]

this guy is severely undervalued at rb 20.

PPR

4.8 yards per rush for his career. 79% catch rate.

of course health is his one issue which is maybe why he is at rb 20.

 

[CentralPA]

I just can't shake that he seems to be constantly hurt. His rookie year when he was healthy he was monster but I just not sure if I could draft him at his spot. Maybe if he slipped to the 4th round but don't see it happening.

 

[leave a whisper]

got Murray as my #2 this year - never owned him before .... im quietly optimistic

fingers are crossed for 1500 toal yards & 8 td's

 

[silentcoach]

if he can play 75% of the games (12 games), he is value, just make sure to have a startbale number 3.

 

[Blacklava]

Bumping for some up-to-date thoughts on this guy. He's my 4th RB (we start 2 RBs, a R/W, and a Q/R/W/T) behind Forte (keeper), Sproles(keeper), and Wilson, so I can handle the risk.

Just wanted some more thoughts, as I'm considering using him as a trade chip if he starts off the season hot.

 

[Biabreakable]

2012 658pa 29TD 19int 36k 355ra 3.6ypc 8TD 321ra RB 30ra QB 4ra WR

2011 570pa 33TD 408ra 4.4ypc 5TD 373ra RB 29ra QB 6ra WR

2010 576pa 29TD 428ra 4.2ypc 10TD 369ra RB 50ra QB (McGee 13 so 37) 8ra WR

So Cowboy RB have averaged 354ra over the last 3 seasons. Including all ra they averaged 397 ra.

The passing attempts averaged 601 over that time frame. 560-620pa expected.

Bill Callahan is a offensive line coach and will have more imput on the offense. Joseph Randle (who many here on FBG think is terrible) is a new RB to possibly be used in a COP (Felix Jones) role, with Dunbar more direct back up to Murray. Injuries to Murray leave a somewhat distorted picture as far as what the Cowboys offense might have done if he were healthy, and what they may do now that he is.

With expected improved running game I think they will have 390-440 total rushing attempts. Qbs have averaged 32ra (discounting McGees in 2010). The WR have been 6. So 352-402ra for the RB is what I would expect.

I also yesterday realized that Murray was rated one point higher than Trent Richardson as a high school recruit. I just did not realize he was so highly regarded as this before. Murray is a solid 3 down RB.

Murray 172- 332ra 4.4ypc 757-1460yds 3-9TD 30-50 receptions 7ypc 210-350yds 2-4TD
Randle 60-180ra 3.9ypc 234-702yds 2-7 TD 15-30 receptions 7ypc 105-210 yds 0-2TD
Dunbar 10-50ra 3.8ypc 38-190yds 0-1TD 0-10 receptions 7ypc 0-70yds 0-1TD

A median projection for Murray would be 252ra 1109yds 41 rec 287yds 9TD which is pretty solid as long as he doesn't miss games.

 

[Sabertooth]

He's a very good number three/flex play. I don't want Him as a rb2 though.

 

[leave a whisper]

gut feeling -he finishes as a top 10 RB

Didn't Callahan make Charlie Garner a top 10 RB years ago?

......and when he does play doesn't he average 110+ total yards per game?

 

[jurb26]

gut feeling -he finishes as a top 10 RB

Didn't Callahan make Charlie Garner a top 10 RB years ago?

......and when he does play doesn't he average 110+ total yards per game?

I think Murrary will perform like a top 10 RB most of the time he's on the field. Dal has an explosive offense and he looks to benefits from that. The problem is I don't know how much he will be on the field. This guys hasn't been healthy since his freshman year at OU.

 

[Koya]

gut feeling -he finishes as a top 10 RB

Didn't Callahan make Charlie Garner a top 10 RB years ago?

......and when he does play doesn't he average 110+ total yards per game?

I think Murrary will perform like a top 10 RB most of the time he's on the field. Dal has an explosive offense and he looks to benefits from that. The problem is I don't know how much he will be on the field. This guys hasn't been healthy since his freshman year at OU.

This is why the as of yet undefined backup situation is so important. If you took a chance on Murray and you have the right backup, that's a productive start every week, very productive even. Of course, that's if you get the right back and its not split duties to a degree where no one's worth much.

Of course, who is that? Really don't know. Dunbar was looking really good, but can he be a bell cow, really? We know they want Randle to get a look. So, it's likely Tanner who will sneak in as he seems to have until Dunbar is back.

That said, I think the backup situation is the most worth discussing - you either don't like murray and/or don't have him, or you got value, have him, and now need to mitigate the risk associated with the very nice upside.