Player Spotlight: Domanick Davis (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Domanick Davis, RB, Houston Texans

Player Page Link: Domanick Davis Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[H.K.]

The Good:

- Texans did not draft Reggie Bush

- Carr still at QB means plenty more passes coming DD's way

- Moulds addition at WR opposite AJ should help spread the field and create running room

The Bad:

- Davis has not played an entire season as a pro (IIRC, he didn't do it in college either)

- New HC, offensive line still undergoing transition, and Texans overall are not a very good team

- Addition of A.Smith and Lundy: could he lose GL carries?

Kubiak and Mike Sherman have provided some nice FF results for RB's over the years, so I think Dom can keep being productive assuming he plays in 13-14 games this season:

240 carries for 986 yards rushing

51 Recepts for 411 yards receiving

7 Total TD

 

[TheFanatic]

240 carries for 986 yards rushing

51 Recepts for 411 yards receiving

7 Total TD

It cracks me up when people blindly put in last year's numbers as next year's numbers. Let's see how close H.K. got, shall we...In 2005 DD had 230 carries for 976 yards rushing

47 catches for 351 yards receiving

6 total TD

Off by 10 carries, and 10 yards on the rushing. Off by 4 catches and 60 yards receiving. And off by 1 TD. Has any RB ever had two seasons in a row that were so close as this? I would think not.

My prediction:

293 carries for 1260 yards

58 catches for 540 yards receiving

11 total TD's.

It's make or break time for DD. If Bush does anything in N.O. and DD sits out a game or two the city of Houston will be rioting in the streets calling for DD's head on a pike. If he doesn't put up solid numbers behind an improved line and more playmakers to take the focus off of him then the Texans will be grabbing someone early in the draft at RB in 2007 or in FA.

I'm an optimist here. Kubiak has hitched his wagon to DD for this season and will get the most out of him. If he can't do that DD will be riding the pine in 2007 or looking for a new gig.

But with a better line and more playmakers I have jumped his YPC and YPR. I think he will have more room around the line of scrimmage both running and receiving as Moulds, AJohnson, and Putzier stretch the field.

 

[radballs]

240 carries for 986 yards rushing

51 Recepts for 411 yards receiving

7 Total TD

It cracks me up when people blindly put in last year's numbers as next year's numbers. Let's see how close H.K. got, shall we...In 2005 DD had 230 carries for 976 yards rushing

47 catches for 351 yards receiving

6 total TD

Off by 10 carries, and 10 yards on the rushing. Off by 4 catches and 60 yards receiving. And off by 1 TD. Has any RB ever had two seasons in a row that were so close as this? I would think not.

My prediction:

293 carries for 1260 yards

58 catches for 540 yards receiving

11 total TD's.

It's make or break time for DD. If Bush does anything in N.O. and DD sits out a game or two the city of Houston will be rioting in the streets calling for DD's head on a pike. If he doesn't put up solid numbers behind an improved line and more playmakers to take the focus off of him then the Texans will be grabbing someone early in the draft at RB in 2007 or in FA.

I'm an optimist here. Kubiak has hitched his wagon to DD for this season and will get the most out of him. If he can't do that DD will be riding the pine in 2007 or looking for a new gig.

But with a better line and more playmakers I have jumped his YPC and YPR. I think he will have more room around the line of scrimmage both running and receiving as Moulds, AJohnson, and Putzier stretch the field.

Why do you think he put those in "blindly"? Maybe that's the way they came out when he put them together.

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

240 carries for 986 yards rushing

51 Recepts for 411 yards receiving

7 Total TD

It cracks me up when people blindly put in last year's numbers as next year's numbers. Let's see how close H.K. got, shall we...In 2005 DD had 230 carries for 976 yards rushing

47 catches for 351 yards receiving

6 total TD

Off by 10 carries, and 10 yards on the rushing. Off by 4 catches and 60 yards receiving. And off by 1 TD. Has any RB ever had two seasons in a row that were so close as this? I would think not.

My prediction:

293 carries for 1260 yards

58 catches for 540 yards receiving

11 total TD's.

It's make or break time for DD. If Bush does anything in N.O. and DD sits out a game or two the city of Houston will be rioting in the streets calling for DD's head on a pike. If he doesn't put up solid numbers behind an improved line and more playmakers to take the focus off of him then the Texans will be grabbing someone early in the draft at RB in 2007 or in FA.

I'm an optimist here. Kubiak has hitched his wagon to DD for this season and will get the most out of him. If he can't do that DD will be riding the pine in 2007 or looking for a new gig.

But with a better line and more playmakers I have jumped his YPC and YPR. I think he will have more room around the line of scrimmage both running and receiving as Moulds, AJohnson, and Putzier stretch the field.

Wow. These are huge numbers. I hope you're correct.

 

[KCC]

240 carries for 986 yards rushing

51 Recepts for 411 yards receiving

7 Total TD

It cracks me up when people blindly put in last year's numbers as next year's numbers. Let's see how close H.K. got, shall we...In 2005 DD had 230 carries for 976 yards rushing

47 catches for 351 yards receiving

6 total TD

Off by 10 carries, and 10 yards on the rushing. Off by 4 catches and 60 yards receiving. And off by 1 TD. Has any RB ever had two seasons in a row that were so close as this? I would think not.

My prediction:

293 carries for 1260 yards

58 catches for 540 yards receiving

11 total TD's.

It's make or break time for DD. If Bush does anything in N.O. and DD sits out a game or two the city of Houston will be rioting in the streets calling for DD's head on a pike. If he doesn't put up solid numbers behind an improved line and more playmakers to take the focus off of him then the Texans will be grabbing someone early in the draft at RB in 2007 or in FA.

I'm an optimist here. Kubiak has hitched his wagon to DD for this season and will get the most out of him. If he can't do that DD will be riding the pine in 2007 or looking for a new gig.

But with a better line and more playmakers I have jumped his YPC and YPR. I think he will have more room around the line of scrimmage both running and receiving as Moulds, AJohnson, and Putzier stretch the field.

Why do you think he put those in "blindly"? Maybe that's the way they came out when he put them together.

The same player is on the same team - why is projecting similar numbers such a ridiculous notion?

 

[H.K.]

240 carries for 986 yards rushing

51 Recepts for 411 yards receiving

7 Total TD

It cracks me up when people blindly put in last year's numbers as next year's numbers. Let's see how close H.K. got, shall we...

If you were not a decent poster, I wouldn't bother responding, but for the edification of you and the rest of the board, here is an FYI:I used DD's career averages for my estimates i.e. - 4.1 YPC, he catches ~ 3.8 balls/game, etc. Then I factored in those numbers assuming he'll only play 13 games. I think TD's will be low based on other backs now in the mix, not because of last year's stats.

I did not realize my projections were that close to last year's numbers because I didn't look at 2005 when doing my analysis, I looked at his entire career. As I posted initially, I also accounted for the changes to the coaching staff and personnel and how it may impact him.

 

[sacked4loss]

240 carries 840 yards 5tds

24 recs 240 yards 2tds

that playing 12 or 13 games

 

[Jack Ham & Eggs]

This projection assumes he will miss 3 games:

251/1038/7 rushing

50/414/2 receiving

1452 yards, 9 TDs

 

[2 humps and a grunt]

As a DD owner, I'm not sure where to place his numbers. He was literally 70% of that offense for so long and that was a main reason his health suffered. Not because he was fragile but because of the pounding he kept taking. New coach, offensive line and better weapons around him would suggest his numbers going down but I really think he has a great chance at staying healthy for the first time by only being a major part of the offense and not the whole offense. A healthy DD will put up very nice numbers. Will stay healthy?

 

[TheFanatic]

240 carries for 986 yards rushing

51 Recepts for 411 yards receiving

7 Total TD

It cracks me up when people blindly put in last year's numbers as next year's numbers. Let's see how close H.K. got, shall we...

If you were not a decent poster, I wouldn't bother responding, but for the edification of you and the rest of the board, here is an FYI:I used DD's career averages for my estimates i.e. - 4.1 YPC, he catches ~ 3.8 balls/game, etc. Then I factored in those numbers assuming he'll only play 13 games. I think TD's will be low based on other backs now in the mix, not because of last year's stats.

I did not realize my projections were that close to last year's numbers because I didn't look at 2005 when doing my analysis, I looked at his entire career. As I posted initially, I also accounted for the changes to the coaching staff and personnel and how it may impact him.

Fair enough, but it's still going to be very difficult for these numbers to come to fruition. It is very difficult for a player to repeat the numbers of a previous year so closely. It's statistically very unlikely. That and basing numbers on career averages from a guy that didn't take over as the starter till around week 6 his rookie year, played in 15 games his 2nd year and missed 5 games his 3rd year is not the best statistical practice. He hasn't shown any consistancy and thus it will be hard to project his numbers from his up and down career stats.

 

[TheFanatic]

240 carries for 986 yards rushing

51 Recepts for 411 yards receiving

7 Total TD

It cracks me up when people blindly put in last year's numbers as next year's numbers. Let's see how close H.K. got, shall we...In 2005 DD had 230 carries for 976 yards rushing

47 catches for 351 yards receiving

6 total TD

Off by 10 carries, and 10 yards on the rushing. Off by 4 catches and 60 yards receiving. And off by 1 TD. Has any RB ever had two seasons in a row that were so close as this? I would think not.

My prediction:

293 carries for 1260 yards

58 catches for 540 yards receiving

11 total TD's.

It's make or break time for DD. If Bush does anything in N.O. and DD sits out a game or two the city of Houston will be rioting in the streets calling for DD's head on a pike. If he doesn't put up solid numbers behind an improved line and more playmakers to take the focus off of him then the Texans will be grabbing someone early in the draft at RB in 2007 or in FA.

I'm an optimist here. Kubiak has hitched his wagon to DD for this season and will get the most out of him. If he can't do that DD will be riding the pine in 2007 or looking for a new gig.

But with a better line and more playmakers I have jumped his YPC and YPR. I think he will have more room around the line of scrimmage both running and receiving as Moulds, AJohnson, and Putzier stretch the field.

Why do you think he put those in "blindly"? Maybe that's the way they came out when he put them together.

The same player is on the same team - why is projecting similar numbers such a ridiculous notion?

90% of running backs are on the same team from year to year. So are you proposing that we should just take the RB's numbers from the year before and project them into the following year as kong as they are on the same team?

 

[Phlash]

Ok the guy averaged 88 ypg on an awful AWFUL offense (31st ranked in the NFL :blech

Sure he's never played a full NFL season but he's got the skills to put up the numbers.

300/1320/11

50/400/1

Top 10 RB this season EASY

 

[dgreen]

Fair enough, but it's still going to be very difficult for these numbers to come to fruition. It is very difficult for a player to repeat the numbers of a previous year so closely. It's statistically very unlikely.

Okay, so what's the most likely % change from year to year? Let's say someone predicts a 20% increase. How likely is it that a player will increase almost exactly 20%? Probably pretty unlikely. He's simply predicting approximately a 0% change. If DD shows a 10% increase, both the 0% and the 20% predictor were off by the same amount.

 

[TheFanatic]

Fair enough, but it's still going to be very difficult for these numbers to come to fruition. It is very difficult for a player to repeat the numbers of a previous year so closely. It's statistically very unlikely.

Okay, so what's the most likely % change from year to year? Let's say someone predicts a 20% increase. How likely is it that a player will increase almost exactly 20%? Probably pretty unlikely. He's simply predicting approximately a 0% change. If DD shows a 10% increase, both the 0% and the 20% predictor were off by the same amount.

I see your point, but 0% change is extremely unlikely. Offer up some change or all we have is a bunch of guys rated at the exact same spot last year. And we all know that a ton of them are going to rise and a ton ar going to fall. Very few stay exactly the same....

 

[gang-wars]

Ok the guy averaged 88 ypg on an awful AWFUL offense (31st ranked in the NFL :blech

Sure he's never played a full NFL season but he's got the skills to put up the numbers.

300/1320/11

50/400/1

Top 10 RB this season EASY

Sure he's never stayed healthy, but top 10 RB EASY?I'm not sure I follow that logic. Or did you mean to say MAYBE for EASY?

Every year all I hear from the Texans is bring in new RBs, drafting new RBs. Then DD has knee problems last year, and then again the knee isn't healthy this spring. He can't stay healthy, end of story. He's a guy who people love to hype, but don't want to draft him.

The way I see people hyping up guys, I want to see how their RB1 DD and RB2 Lewis and WR1 TO pan out. Can we please gloss over more major flaws? One line he can't stay healthy, next he's a lock for top 10RB.

All World Points per Game Team

QB McNabb, Warner

RB DD, Lewis, Westbrook

WR TO, Branch, Walker

TE Winslow

(WRs were a stretch)

That team last year would have had 1 starter playing by FF championship.

 

[H.K.]

Fair enough, but it's still going to be very difficult for these numbers to come to fruition.  It is very difficult for a player to repeat the numbers of a previous year so closely.  It's statistically very unlikely.

Okay, so what's the most likely % change from year to year? Let's say someone predicts a 20% increase. How likely is it that a player will increase almost exactly 20%? Probably pretty unlikely. He's simply predicting approximately a 0% change. If DD shows a 10% increase, both the 0% and the 20% predictor were off by the same amount.

I see your point, but 0% change is extremely unlikely. Offer up some change or all we have is a bunch of guys rated at the exact same spot last year. And we all know that a ton of them are going to rise and a ton ar going to fall. Very few stay exactly the same....

I don't think you need to have change for changes sake, while I also agree that projecting similar years back to back is not a good practice but it happens more than you think, here is the first guy I thought of:Shaun Alexander

2001 1661 total yards, 16 TD

2002 1635 total yards, 18 TD

2003 1730 total yards, 16 TD

Back to Davis. Personally, I don't want to rely on him as one of my RB's this season because of his propensity to miss time. I think he is definitely a guy for those not afraid of risk. He could perform far better than I projected, or far worse...

 

[CA_7]

Yes these guys are not going to beat out DD but doesn't it seem like HOU already has a ton of depth at RB? Makes me wonder about DD's injury (and history)

Scout.com reports the Texans plan to try out Lamar Gordon.

Former Raven Jamel White tried out for the Texans recently.

 

[Blackjacks]

I personally think this guy is junk. I don't think he can be counted on to stay healthy, I don't think he'll be a good fit for the new coach and I don't think he'll be the rb in Houston next year. Give me all the stats you want to say how he is a yardage stud and when healthy he's put up great #'s. IMHO I think he gets alot of dumpoffs when teams are whipping the Texans ***. Not that I don't think this is going to happen again this year but I think the new regime is going to notice that he doesn't put fear into opposing defensive coordinators sleep and that's why the Texans (Carr) can't stay off the carpet. I believe if you got a good rb (imbetween the tackles type runner) that would take alot of pressure off Carr.

 

[KCC]

240 carries for 986 yards rushing

51 Recepts for 411 yards receiving

7 Total TD

It cracks me up when people blindly put in last year's numbers as next year's numbers. Let's see how close H.K. got, shall we...In 2005 DD had 230 carries for 976 yards rushing

47 catches for 351 yards receiving

6 total TD

Off by 10 carries, and 10 yards on the rushing. Off by 4 catches and 60 yards receiving. And off by 1 TD. Has any RB ever had two seasons in a row that were so close as this? I would think not.

My prediction:

293 carries for 1260 yards

58 catches for 540 yards receiving

11 total TD's.

It's make or break time for DD. If Bush does anything in N.O. and DD sits out a game or two the city of Houston will be rioting in the streets calling for DD's head on a pike. If he doesn't put up solid numbers behind an improved line and more playmakers to take the focus off of him then the Texans will be grabbing someone early in the draft at RB in 2007 or in FA.

I'm an optimist here. Kubiak has hitched his wagon to DD for this season and will get the most out of him. If he can't do that DD will be riding the pine in 2007 or looking for a new gig.

But with a better line and more playmakers I have jumped his YPC and YPR. I think he will have more room around the line of scrimmage both running and receiving as Moulds, AJohnson, and Putzier stretch the field.

Why do you think he put those in "blindly"? Maybe that's the way they came out when he put them together.

The same player is on the same team - why is projecting similar numbers such a ridiculous notion?

90% of running backs are on the same team from year to year. So are you proposing that we should just take the RB's numbers from the year before and project them into the following year as kong as they are on the same team?

They aren't the same - they're similar. If you're asking me whether the same player in the same situation will produce either similar numbers or radically different numbers, I'll go with similar numbers. No projections are going to be 100% accurate. You seem to think that since there are variations in production year to year (as with almost any data set) your projections are going to be more accurate if they vary wildly from past performance. I respectfully disagree.

 

[Longrifle]

Ok D. Davis is a tough guy to really predict. He seems to always get injured (never played a complete season). Last year he missed 4 games. When he was in the game his team was so bad that they were usually playing catch up late in the game (so no “kill the clock” rushing yrds). That’s the bad. Now for the good. The situation in Houston has changed. There is a new offensive minded coach and the team seems to have confidence in him (as they passed on Bush – or the team is crazy, which is more likely). Also, if you look at Houston’s schedule they play teams that have in the past been weak (or at least not strong) against the run. So this works in his favor. With that said, looking at D. Davis’s history and Kubiak’s history with running backs (he did have another Davis in Denver at one time) I think D. Davis is in for a career season. So here are the projections

G 13

Rushes 286

Rushing Yards 1,287

Rush TDs 10

Receptions 48

Receiving Yards 480

Receiving TDs 5

I know that these are slightly aggressive numbers but D. Davis has some nice up side.

 

[David Yudkin]

Davis has averaged 15.4 fantasy ppg over his career including a handful of games to start his career when he was not the go to back. Over a full season, that's 246 points and would normally rank him in the RB6-8 range.

IMO, each game he misses will drop him one spot in the rankings if its 3 games or less. I don't see why he would be LESS productive than in the past and we are still accounting for him missing time.

His current ADP is as the RB13, so he is definitely someone to consider if he falls to you in the late first/early second. He's also more valuable in PPR leagues, but I don't have any ADP data for PPR leagues at the moment.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Nary a mention of Kubiak bringing Denver's highly RB-friendly zone blocking scheme to Houston?

 

[perry147]

Nary a mention of Kubiak bringing Denver's highly RB-friendly zone blocking scheme to Houston?

Davis could be huge this year.

 

[Buckna]

Nary a mention of Kubiak bringing Denver's highly RB-friendly zone blocking scheme to Houston?

Davis could be huge this year.

The Texans had already installed the zone-blocking offense 2 years ago. Granted Kubiak knows it better than the imitators the Texans had as coaches the last few years.

 

[cws3030]

Davis has averaged 15.4 fantasy ppg over his career including a handful of games to start his career when he was not the go to back. Over a full season, that's 246 points and would normally rank him in the RB6-8 range.

IMO, each game he misses will drop him one spot in the rankings if its 3 games or less. I don't see why he would be LESS productive than in the past and we are still accounting for him missing time.

His current ADP is as the RB13, so he is definitely someone to consider if he falls to you in the late first/early second. He's also more valuable in PPR leagues, but I don't have any ADP data for PPR leagues at the moment.

well said... i don't understand how people knock his production. if you want to make the injury prone argument you're more than welcome but you can't say he isn't productive when he is on the field.

 

[cws3030]

Yes these guys are not going to beat out DD but doesn't it seem like HOU already has a ton of depth at RB? Makes me wonder about DD's injury (and history)

Scout.com reports the Texans plan to try out Lamar Gordon.

Former Raven Jamel White tried out for the Texans recently.

if you get sick a few times every year and have crapy health insurance wouldn't you go out and get a better plan. i think it wouldn't be very smart if the texans front office didn't have some kind of insurance or back up plan behind DD. he has missed time every season.

i think it says more about their lack of trust/confidence in morency at this point.

 

[JAA]

1300/13

 

[CA_7]

Yes these guys are not going to beat out DD but doesn't it seem like HOU already has a ton of depth at RB?  Makes me wonder about DD's injury (and history) 

Scout.com reports the Texans plan to try out Lamar Gordon.

Former Raven Jamel White tried out for the Texans recently.

if you get sick a few times every year and have crapy health insurance wouldn't you go out and get a better plan. i think it wouldn't be very smart if the texans front office didn't have some kind of insurance or back up plan behind DD. he has missed time every season.

i think it says more about their lack of trust/confidence in morency at this point.

There is speculation that Morency is the #4 RBYes, RB insurance is not a new concept but this would be their 5th RB.

 

[Tau837]

Davis has averaged 15.4 fantasy ppg over his career including a handful of games to start his career when he was not the go to back. Over a full season, that's 246 points and would normally rank him in the RB6-8 range.

IMO, each game he misses will drop him one spot in the rankings if its 3 games or less. I don't see why he would be LESS productive than in the past and we are still accounting for him missing time.

His current ADP is as the RB13, so he is definitely someone to consider if he falls to you in the late first/early second. He's also more valuable in PPR leagues, but I don't have any ADP data for PPR leagues at the moment.

 

[H.K.]

Nary a mention of Kubiak bringing Denver's highly RB-friendly zone blocking scheme to Houston?

See post #2

 

[Verbal Kint]

Nary a mention of Kubiak bringing Denver's highly RB-friendly zone blocking scheme to Houston?

As well as their philosophy of not drafting RBs high in the draft?

 

[Traders2001]

1300/13

You cant do that on crutches .......I say 300 rush yards 1 TD .

60 Receiving yards .

He will only play 3 or 4 games , he is so soft cant take any hit.

 

[JimmyD]

***This prediction assumes a good to go leg****

310 carries

1250yds

6TDs

50rec

400yds

If he continues to miss valuable time, the predictions won't matter as his value will be junk.

Upside

They saw enough to not draft Bush

Kubiak

Has produced when healthy

Downside

Missing multiple games and being drafted in the first round sucks.

New coaching style and him missing valuable time could make it hard to get back in the swing of things.

Missing time could allow other RB to earn time in at least certain packages which would reduce DD's touches.

Missing multiple games and being drafted in the first round sucks.

 

[Acrobat7]

assuming that he stays healthy and plays 16 games (you simply cannot project injuries) i expect close to 2000 total yards and 15 TDs from him.

Top 7 in FF when PPR.

 

[Husker]

So, given the scares of the last few days, how much does injury concern drop your projections?

 

[Big Score]

So, given the scares of the last few days, how much does injury concern drop your projections?

Whaddaya mean scares of the "last few days"?It's more like scares of the "last few months", considering we've been getting constant reports of him being unable to go through first mini camps, then OTA's and now in TC he's off to get a second opinion.

AND IT HAS NEVER BEEN DISCOLSED WHAT THE ACTUAL INJURY TO HIS KNEE IS!

If fantasy footballer antennas aren't waving & red flags popping up all over the place in regards to Dom, I just don't know what to say