Player Spotlight: Dwayne Allen & Coby Fleener, TEs, Indianapolis C (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Dwayne Allen & Coby Fleener, TEs, Indianapolis Colts

Player Page Link: Dwyane Allen Player Page

Player Page Link: Coby Fleener Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections
  

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
  

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[donkshow]

I thought Allen was a lot better than Fleener last year. With Wayne, Hilton and DHB along with the Colts intending to run a lot more (only 39% last year) I don't feel there is much left for the 2 TE's. The Colts TE's as a combo would be relevant, but separately I can't see either putting up numbers worth starting, even on bye weeks. Only hope is one of them becomes the red zone favourite of Luck.

 

[msudaisy26]

I see this a lot like Dressen, and Tamme last year. Allen being Dressen and Fleener being Tamme. I don't think either will be start able week to week, not enough scraps to go around. However Allen will score enough touchdowns to be good for a bye week start or best ball format.

 

[UKColt]

I'm a bit bored and want to do some number crunching, so here's a in-depth, stats based look at their potential this year.

First of all, let's look at how new Colts OC Hamilton uses his TEs. In 2011 when he was OC at Stanford, with Luck at QB, the stats were:

Luck: 404 attempts, 288 completions, 3517yds and 37 touchdowns.
Fleener: 51 targets, 34 completions, 667 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Ertz: 36 targets, 27 completions, 346 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Toilolo: 32 targets, 25 completions, 343 yards and 6 touchdowns.

Total TE: 119 targets, 86 completions, 1356 yards and 20 touchdowns.

In % terms, that means that:

29.5% of Luck's attempts were to his TEs.
30% of his completions were to his TEs.
38% of his passing yards were to his TEs.
54% of his TDs were to his TEs.

Now obviously Stanford didn't have Reggie Wayne or TY Hilton to throw to, but their WRs are both on NFL rosters currently so are hardly garbage. The numbers give us indication of just how much he likes to use his TEs in the passing game, especially in the red zone.

For comparison under Arians, Fleener and Allen were targeted on 114 of Luck's 627 attempts, or about 18% of the time.

From now on it's my own predictions on targets. If Luck targets his TEs 25% of the time on 600 passes this year, that means 150 targets for Allen and Fleener. I predict that Allen will get more his way, because he'll be on the field more and running the safety valve, underneath routes whilst Fleener runs more downfield routes. So let's go with Allen getting 80 targets and Fleener getting 70 targets.

Now, catch rates. Fleener caught 54% of his passes last year, whilst Allen caught a superb 68%. I expect Allen's number to be similar and Fleener to catch around 60% this year. So based on my target assumptions, that'd give us:

Allen: 54 catches
Fleener: 47 catches

Allen averaged 11.6 YPC last year but I expect that to drop a little bit this year as he'll be running more underneath, safety valve type routes in this offense. Let's call it a nice round 10yds. Fleener had a YPC of 10.8, but I expect that to go up if the Colts use him in the way he was used in college. I suspect a YPC of somewhere around the 12yd mark. So that leaves us with final stats (including my TD predictions) of:

Allen: 54/540/3
Fleener: 47/564/5

Well, I enjoyed that.

 

[Shutout]

Last year I was in the majority of people who said they thought Allen would actually out produce flee err due to the way the team was appearing to position it's offense. This year, I am flipping it. With Arians gone and the old Stanford coach now reunited with fleener, I think they will establish fleener as a seam threat. I don't think that necessarily means Allen regresses, but that fleeners role will grow that much.

 

[cobalt_27]

I'm a bit bored and want to do some number crunching, so here's a in-depth, stats based look at their potential this year.

First of all, let's look at how new Colts OC Hamilton uses his TEs. In 2011 when he was OC at Stanford, with Luck at QB, the stats were:

Luck: 404 attempts, 288 completions, 3517yds and 37 touchdowns.

Fleener: 51 targets, 34 completions, 667 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Ertz: 36 targets, 27 completions, 346 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Toilolo: 32 targets, 25 completions, 343 yards and 6 touchdowns.

Total TE: 119 targets, 86 completions, 1356 yards and 20 touchdowns.

In % terms, that means that:

29.5% of Luck's attempts were to his TEs.

30% of his completions were to his TEs.

38% of his passing yards were to his TEs.

54% of his TDs were to his TEs.

Now obviously Stanford didn't have Reggie Wayne or TY Hilton to throw to, but their WRs are both on NFL rosters currently so are hardly garbage. The numbers give us indication of just how much he likes to use his TEs in the passing game, especially in the red zone.

For comparison under Arians, Fleener and Allen were targeted on 114 of Luck's 627 attempts, or about 18% of the time.

From now on it's my own predictions on targets. If Luck targets his TEs 25% of the time on 600 passes this year, that means 150 targets for Allen and Fleener. I predict that Allen will get more his way, because he'll be on the field more and running the safety valve, underneath routes whilst Fleener runs more downfield routes. So let's go with Allen getting 80 targets and Fleener getting 70 targets.

Now, catch rates. Fleener caught 54% of his passes last year, whilst Allen caught a superb 68%. I expect Allen's number to be similar and Fleener to catch around 60% this year. So based on my target assumptions, that'd give us:

Allen: 54 catches

Fleener: 47 catches

Allen averaged 11.6 YPC last year but I expect that to drop a little bit this year as he'll be running more underneath, safety valve type routes in this offense. Let's call it a nice round 10yds. Fleener had a YPC of 10.8, but I expect that to go up if the Colts use him in the way he was used in college. I suspect a YPC of somewhere around the 12yd mark. So that leaves us with final stats (including my TD predictions) of:

Allen: 54/540/3

Fleener: 47/564/5

I think Allen is more realistic than Fleener, but all the reports from OTAs are good about Fleener and if any coordinator is going to get something out of him, it'll be Hamilton.

Well, I enjoyed that.

Excellent post.

 

[cstu]

Last year I was in the majority of people who said they thought Allen would actually out produce flee err due to the way the team was appearing to position it's offense. This year, I am flipping it. With Arians gone and the old Stanford coach now reunited with fleener, I think they will establish fleener as a seam threat. I don't think that necessarily means Allen regresses, but that fleeners role will grow that much.

I liked both of these guys from the beginning but I thought Fleener would be used more in the passing game and Allen more to block. Clearly Allen was more NFL-ready and a better receiver than I thought he'd be.

Now this year there's really nothing preventing Fleener from having a big year. If he can't get it done with his college QB and OC then I have doubts he ever will. High ceiling on the guy if he is the real deal though.

I expect similar numbers for Allen this year but I don't see much upside as long as Fleener is healthy.

 

[menobrown]

I'd be heavily concerned if I was a Dewayne Allen owner. He has missed the last two days of practice with a foot injury, his agent is not speaking, and only update I've been able to get so far is that Allen is seeking a second opinion as of today. Could turn out to be nothing of course that's enough cause for concern IMO.

Since I've always assumed this was gong to be a two TE offense not sure it's a huge impact on Fleener but it can't hurt either.

 

[Shutout]

I'd be heavily concerned if I was a Dewayne Allen owner. He has missed the last two days of practice with a foot injury, his agent is not speaking, and only update I've been able to get so far is that Allen is seeking a second opinion as of today. Could turn out to be nothing of course that's enough cause for concern IMO.

Since I've always assumed this was gong to be a two TE offense not sure it's a huge impact on Fleener but it can't hurt either.

Usually, seeking a 2nd opinion means you didn't like the 1st opinion, so I agree. Adam Schefter mentioned this was going down yesterday and usually if he is taking time to expand on something he reported, there is generally more going on.

This is definitely worth watching for Allen owners. I know the immediate corresponding thought will likely be that if Allen is out, it boosts Fleener. I don't know about that just yet just because we haven't really seen what the changes from last year translate into in the first place.

 

[eNdblu]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/08/13/colts-coby-fleener-sidelined-with-concussion/

Colts tight end Coby Fleener is sidelined after suffering a concussion.

The Colts have confirmed that Fleener is going through the NFL’s concussion protocol.

With Fleener out and Dwayne Allen missing a few weeks because of a foot injury, the Colts are missing their top two tight ends at the moment. Dominique Jones and Justice Cunningham are working with the first-string offense while Fleener and Allen are out.

A second-round pick out of Stanford last year, Fleener started 10 games as a rookie and caught 26 passes for 281 yards.

Sigmund Bloom @SigmundBloom

oh boy. had one in '12 and one in '11 too. RT @MikeWellsNFL Coby Fleener did not practice this afternoon because of a concussion.

 

[purestrength]

Crap!

 

[Shutout]

2nd one in two years. Not a good trend

 

[poopdawg]

Never understood the whole concussion thing. Can someone be more prone to them or is it due more to their style of play?

 

[menobrown]

Never understood the whole concussion thing. Can someone be more prone to them or is it due more to their style of play?

I don't know about style of play but certainly some people can be more prone.

It's very concerning to me when a young player not only has multiple concussions but I don't recall him taking immense head shots. Even an often concussed player like Austin Collie as a example took some horrific head shots. Javhid Best on the other hand got concussed in a pre-season game on what looked like a fairly pedestrian looking head slap as he was running out of bounds and his career was over not long after that game. When you start factoring in multiple concussions on hits that don't look overly devastating it's a big concern. I know after Best got that pre-season concussion I jumped off the train and started dealing him where I could.

I know when Fleener fumbled this past week he got up real slowly, looked hurt but I thought maybe just had the wind knocked out of him. At first and so far only glance I thought the defender hit him right in the midsection which led to ball being jarred loose. I'm going to go back and re-watch that play but at this point would find it much more comforting if I see something in that fumble which leads me to believe Fleener took a massive head shot or landed on his head in a violent fashion. I'm not trying to overreact to an injury which likely in and of itself won't cause him to miss a regular season game but I'm concerned.

 

[pizzatyme]

If both are healthy, Fleener is the one to own this year. I've been to most TC practices and it is clear to me that Fleener will be used to put pressure up the seams. He is also being split wide. Allen will have his touches too. I feel he is the safety valve that is still a mismatch versus a LB with his size.

Fleener-66/786/6

Allen-48/495/4

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

Here's the video from the fumble.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000229008/Brooks-forces-fumble

The hit was a good one but I think the concussion was caused when he lands right on top of his head.

 

[menobrown]

Here's the video from the fumble.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000229008/Brooks-forces-fumble

The hit was a good one but I think the concussion was caused when he lands right on top of his head.

Thanks I went back and watched that last night. It's possible he got hit in ear hole on first hit, hard to tell, but than he flips on top of his head. All in all not that encouraging as from my couch if did not seem like a major blow but than again that's from my couch.

He was back at morning walk through today, which is somewhat of a good sign.

 

[humpback]

2nd one in two years. Not a good trend

Maybe 3 in 3- he also had "concussion like symptoms" from a hit his senior year at Stanford.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I'm a bit bored and want to do some number crunching, so here's a in-depth, stats based look at their potential this year.

First of all, let's look at how new Colts OC Hamilton uses his TEs. In 2011 when he was OC at Stanford, with Luck at QB, the stats were:

Luck: 404 attempts, 288 completions, 3517yds and 37 touchdowns.

Fleener: 51 targets, 34 completions, 667 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Ertz: 36 targets, 27 completions, 346 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Toilolo: 32 targets, 25 completions, 343 yards and 6 touchdowns.

Total TE: 119 targets, 86 completions, 1356 yards and 20 touchdowns.

In % terms, that means that:

29.5% of Luck's attempts were to his TEs.

30% of his completions were to his TEs.

38% of his passing yards were to his TEs.

54% of his TDs were to his TEs.

Now obviously Stanford didn't have Reggie Wayne or TY Hilton to throw to, but their WRs are both on NFL rosters currently so are hardly garbage. The numbers give us indication of just how much he likes to use his TEs in the passing game, especially in the red zone.

For comparison under Arians, Fleener and Allen were targeted on 114 of Luck's 627 attempts, or about 18% of the time.

From now on it's my own predictions on targets. If Luck targets his TEs 25% of the time on 600 passes this year, that means 150 targets for Allen and Fleener. I predict that Allen will get more his way, because he'll be on the field more and running the safety valve, underneath routes whilst Fleener runs more downfield routes. So let's go with Allen getting 80 targets and Fleener getting 70 targets.

Now, catch rates. Fleener caught 54% of his passes last year, whilst Allen caught a superb 68%. I expect Allen's number to be similar and Fleener to catch around 60% this year. So based on my target assumptions, that'd give us:

Allen: 54 catches

Fleener: 47 catches

llen averaged 11.6 YPC last year but I expect that to drop a little bit this year as he'll be running more underneath, safety valve type routes in this offense. Let's call it a nice round 10yds. Fleener had a YPC of 10.8, but I expect that to go up if the Colts use him in the way he was used in college. I suspect a YPC of somewhere around the 12yd mark. So that leaves us with final stats (including my TD predictions) of:

Allen: 54/540/3

Fleener: 47/564/5

Well, I enjoyed that.

The FBG projections have Allen & Fleener together getting 90-105 Receptions, 900-1200 yards, 6-10 TDs. The poster above estimates 101/1104/8.

And from the above (great post) with Luck & Hamilton together at Stanford we have:

Total TE: 119 targets, 86 completions, 1356 yards and 20 touchdowns.

...

29.5% of Luck's attempts were to his TEs.

30% of his completions were to his TEs.

38% of his passing yards were to his TEs.

54% of his TDs were to his TEs.

I guess just a reminder on this in calculating TYH/DHB value, and even Wayne's.

Fleener should be the downfield threat, Allen the more 1st down, nearer to scrimmage threat, but either way they should be doing quite a lot.

 

[cstu]

Fleener could have a good game.

(FFToday)After the shock of Vick Ballard's season-ending knee injury eased, attention turned to the status of tight end Dwayne Allen. He again was held out of practice after suffering a hip injury in the opener against Oakland. Allen is questionable for Miami, which by NFL standards gives him a 50-50 shot at playing.

Analysis: He may be listed as Questionable but the chances of him playing aren't good after missing practice the entire week. If Allen sites, increased action for Coby Fleener and receiver T.Y. Hilton will likely occur. Dominique Jones would be the second tight end behind Fleener.

 

[cstu]

Fleener should have had 3 TD's instead of one. He caught a 2nd but it was nullified by a penalty on Wayne. Donald Brown's lousy blocking cost him the game-winning TD.

 

[SameSongNDance]

It looks like Dwayne Allen is done for the season (needs hip surgery). Surely this boosts Fleener's value.

 

[werdnoynek]

Allen on season ending IR -

Phillip B Wilson ‏@pwilson2412m
#Colts TE Dwayne Allen needs season-ending hip surgery. Huge blow.

bump fleener...

 

[swidman]

Just saw it cross the news wire. Fleener is now the TE in Indy. Should have a pretty good season without Allen around.

 

[RBM]

Wow where should Fleener be slotted now? Lots of solid tight ends but I'm thinking he's going to push top ten.

 

[donkshow]

Maybe I should have traded for him yesterday. ####.

 

[maf005]

Since Allen was such a stud blocker, does this mean Indy will run more 3 WR sets?

Maybe ding the Indy rb and bump Luck, WRs, and Fleener obviously

 

[pizzatyme]

If both are healthy, Fleener is the one to own this year. I've been to most TC practices and it is clear to me that Fleener will be used to put pressure up the seams. He is also being split wide. Allen will have his touches too. I feel he is the safety valve that is still a mismatch versus a LB with his size.

Fleener-66/786/6

Allen-48/495/4

Sad to see Allen go down, but I stick to my initial assessment. Allen wouldn't have been running the same routes Fleener did on Sunday.