Player Spotlight: E. Decker, D. Thomas & W. Welker, WRs, DEN (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas & Wes Welker, WRs, Denver Broncos

Player Page Link: Eric Decker Player Page

Player Page Link: Demaryius Thomas Player Page

Player Page Link: Wes Welker Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections
  

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
  

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Jason Wood]

This SHOULD be one of the key discussions of the preseason. Welker has been the dream PPR option -- with 110+ receptions in five of the last six seasons. Meanwhile both Thomas and Decker were top 10 fantasy receivers last year (5th and 8th, respectively) thanks to Peyton Manning. Now all three call Denver home...so now what?

Based on current ADP: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/adp.php?viewpos=wr&sortby=consensus

Thomas being drafted 21st overall (WR6)

Welker being drafted 43rd overall (WR15)

Decker being drafted 55th overall (WR21)

Thomas is being held steady, while it seems most are hedging that Welker and Decker will cannibalize each other's value. Is this wise? What's your strategy for this trio? Are you passing on them all for fear of the targets being spread out and creating weekly inconsistency? Are you targeting Decker because he's being discounted the most?

 

[donkshow]

I think it'll be

Thomas

Welker

Decker

 

[Jason Wood]

I think it'll be

Thomas

Welker

Decker

OK. But WHY? Just to be clear, the Spotlight threads are for in depth debate and analysis. We want to hear why you feel the way you do? To quote Sigmund, this is the place to "Show your work."

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

One of the bigger variables for this entire group is the possibility that new OC Adam Gase will install an uptempo offense that will have the Broncos running more plays a la NE and get him back over 600 attempts - maybe well over 600.

I think the key question beyond that is how the targets end up breaking down.

Last year:

Thomas 148

Decker 132

Tamme 88

Dreessen 68

Stokley 64

That's 500 with the rest going to RBs and a few bit players. Perhaps we can give the WR/TE group 550 if we project 10% more plays under Gase... so how will that break down?

Keep in mind Welker needed 188 targets in each of the last two years to put up his 122 and 118 catch seasons...

 

[rzrback77]

One of the bigger variables for this entire group is the possibility that new OC Adam Gase will install an uptempo offense that will have the Broncos running more plays a la NE and get him back over 600 attempts - maybe well over 600.

I think the key question beyond that is how the targets end up breaking down.

Last year:

Thomas 148

Decker 132

Tamme 88

Dreessen 68

Stokley 64

That's 500 with the rest going to RBs and a few bit players. Perhaps we can give the WR/TE group 550 if we project 10% more plays under Gase... so how will that break down?

Keep in mind Welker needed 188 targets in each of the last two years to put up his 122 and 118 catch seasons...

I would not be suprised to see Welker ahead of Decker and taking targets away from the tight ends so that all three of the wide receivers have ample opportunities, but much less so for Tamme and Dreessen.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

One of the bigger variables for this entire group is the possibility that new OC Adam Gase will install an uptempo offense that will have the Broncos running more plays a la NE and get him back over 600 attempts - maybe well over 600.

I think the key question beyond that is how the targets end up breaking down.

Last year:

Thomas 148

Decker 132

Tamme 88

Dreessen 68

Stokley 64

That's 500 with the rest going to RBs and a few bit players. Perhaps we can give the WR/TE group 550 if we project 10% more plays under Gase... so how will that break down?

Keep in mind Welker needed 188 targets in each of the last two years to put up his 122 and 118 catch seasons...

What did the targets look like Manning's last couple of years in Indy? The first thing that jumps out at me is the # of targets to Tamme and Dressen vs Stokley. Should we expect that to continue?

 

[Phenix]

To think Welker can just come in and catch 100 balls with two WRs who know the offense and perform themselves is not wise. Yes Welker is a great slot receiver, but he is not the outside receiver that Thomas and Decker are. Decker is a big WR himself standing 6'3'' and 218 while Welker is 5'9'' and 183. While that does not equal production it equals the value that Decker is the #2 while Welker is the slot guy. Two different targets. Welker should eat into the WR3, TEs and RBs targets. I am rolling over laughing at the people who think Deckers value is that of a #3 WR now that Welker is in town.

Manning has always been known to distribute the ball and his offense is always pass happy as the QB is PEYTON FREAKING MANNING!

Thomas and Deckers value stay the same as if it was week 12 last year and Welker will be his Dallas Clark of yester-year.

 

[meyerj31]

To think Welker can just come in and catch 100 balls with two WRs who know the offense and perform themselves is not wise. Yes Welker is a great slot receiver, but he is not the outside receiver that Thomas and Decker are. Decker is a big WR himself standing 6'3'' and 218 while Welker is 5'9'' and 183. While that does not equal production it equals the value that Decker is the #2 while Welker is the slot guy. Two different targets. Welker should eat into the WR3, TEs and RBs targets. I am rolling over laughing at the people who think Deckers value is that of a #3 WR now that Welker is in town.

Manning has always been known to distribute the ball and his offense is always pass happy as the QB is PEYTON FREAKING MANNING!

Thomas and Deckers value stay the same as if it was week 12 last year and Welker will be his Dallas Clark of yester-year.

I agree with this nearly completely. I think it's likely that the targets for Thomas and Decker decline very slightly on a target per play ratio but they will continue to be the majority of looks. Welker will be a part of the offense, but overall I see all three declining somewhat, with Welker by far taking the biggest drop in production.

As far as targets, Peyton had 583 last year. Even if he's over 600 this year that is such a small amount of an increase as almost negligible. Thomas/Decker together will get half the looks, Welker will get a few less (about 1/6 of total), and the RBs/TEs/misc will get the last third.

Thomas - 140

Decker - 125

Welker - 100, with at most 70 catches and no more than 5 TDs.

I believe all three are going for more than they will produce and will likely not draft any of them in any leagues, with Thomas and Decker being slightly overvalued relative to their ADP and Welker being grossly overvalued.

Thomas - WR12

Decker - WR24

Welker - WR38

That said, I think this distribution is exactly what needs to happen for the Broncos to be successful this year and I expect the offense to have a fantastic season. Manning is a great re-draft pick this year if he can be had in the 4th or later.

 

[donkshow]

I think it'll be Thomas Welker Decker

OK. But WHY? Just to be clear, the Spotlight threads are for in depth debate and analysis. We want to hear why you feel the way you do? To quote Sigmund, this is the place to "Show your work."

Fair enough. After thinking more, I think Welker and Decker will be more closer than I posted. However, more towards the lower end IMO. I believe they will eat into eachothers targets while Thomas gets the same as last year. Welker and Decker are completely different receivers, but there is a lot of talent on that field and so many mouths to feed, that there is going to be lost targets. No way Welker gets the target he'd need for 100 receptions. Also factoring in Decker and Thomas know the offense well and Welker is coming in new, that also could hurt the targets for him. Manning does have favourites. While he's good at dishing to whoever is open, if he doesn't trust you than you won't get the ball thrown in your direction. Once you factor in TE and RB's, I believe Decker and Welker will both have worse years than last year. That's not necessarily a bad thing, as both should definitely be able to be counted on as WR2. Just don't expect WR/Top10 finishes that Welker has been accustomed to recently and Decker last year. Thomas is the clear talent winner between the 3 and he should get the targets needed to be a Top5-10 WR.

 

[floods]

Interesting to see no comparisons to Austin Collie's (always predicted) production here. Wasn't Collie compared to Welker during his time with Manning? Any thoughts on Manning's deteriorating arm strength leading to more targets between the hashes? I was very wrong that Manning's supposed difficulty throwing right would limit Decker last season... but Manning is a year older.

Overall agree with others that you can logically conclude that Welker will eat into the TE/RB targets vs. the outside receivers, but Welker will command a slice of the pie.

Manning - 550 att

Thomas - 90(140)/1300/10

Decker - 80(120)/960/12

Welker - 80(120)/910/4

Would leave 170 targets for the TE/RBs. Took a little off the yardage average for each outside WR to account for Manning being a year older. I believe the safest bet for 2013 will still be Thomas, with Decker holding value in TD leagues. Looking at Clark/Collie as the most direct window into how Manning might target Welker, albeit at a lower rate.

 

[Drop]

Here is a thread with some discussion on the DEN situation... http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=679585&hl=

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Welker played six years in NE. He averaged a bit over 10.25 targets/game for that entire time. To think he'll approach 160-190 targets in Denver (barring DT or Decker injury) is foolish IMO. Thomas and Decker are young players that are just now coming into their prime. Decker is much better than some give him credit for, and Thomas is a dynamic talent. Conversely, Welker is entering his age 32 season, and while his numbers haven't shown it yet, his age tells us he's on the backslope of his career. When exactly age catches up with him is the question. The fact that NE decided not to keep him despite a short term, relatively modest contract of 2 years, 12 million say quite a bit. How many times has NE decided to cut ties with a veteran player that went on to have quality seasons afterwards?

I think Thomas continues his ascent to the elite of the league, and while Decker's TDs come back down to earth a bit, his overall game improves.

Thomas: 155 targets, 95 catches, 1450 yards, 10 TDs.

Decker: 125 targets, 82 catches 1125 yards, 8 TDs.

Welker: 105 targets, 70 catches 685 yards, 2 TDs.

 

[thatguy]

I think the best comparison is to the days when Manning was throwing to Harrison, Wayne and Stokley. In his recrod breaking, 49 TD, Season, all three went for over 1000 yards and 10 TD's, which is incredible. I would argue that this offense is more talented top to bottom than that offense was, with the lone exception being that Manning is now signiricantly older. i expect a huge season for Denver's offense and Manning in particular. I expect Manning to throw for ~4800 yards and ~45 TD's. That's a huge pie, with more than enough pieces to go around for all 3 WR's to post solid numbers.

If we assume 600 attempts, which seems to be about the consensus, I see 150 going to Thomas, 135 to Decker, and 135 to Welker.

Thomas: 100-1400-12

Decker: 90-1100-14

Welker: 95-1000-5

That leaves 180 targets, 1300 yards, and 14 TD's to go the the TE's, RB's and other WR's, which is well within reason.

For those saying there just aren't enough balls to go around for all 3 to be significant, contributors, I'm simply not seeing it. This offense is going to be amazing, and now that Manning has a full season and a full off-season under his belt, it should run like a well oiled and perfectly assembled machine.

 

[Phenix]

I think the best comparison is to the days when Manning was throwing to Harrison, Wayne and Stokley. In his recrod breaking, 49 TD, Season, all three went for over 1000 yards and 10 TD's, which is incredible. I would argue that this offense is more talented top to bottom than that offense was, with the lone exception being that Manning is now signiricantly older. i expect a huge season for Denver's offense and Manning in particular. I expect Manning to throw for ~4800 yards and ~45 TD's. That's a huge pie, with more than enough pieces to go around for all 3 WR's to post solid numbers. If we assume 600 attempts, which seems to be about the consensus, I see 150 going to Thomas, 135 to Decker, and 135 to Welker. Thomas: 100-1400-12Decker: 90-1100-14Welker: 95-1000-5 That leaves 180 targets, 1300 yards, and 14 TD's to go the the TE's, RB's and other WR's, which is well within reason.For those saying there just aren't enough balls to go around for all 3 to be significant, contributors, I'm simply not seeing it. This offense is going to be amazing, and now that Manning has a full season and a full off-season under his belt, it should run like a well oiled and perfectly assembled machine.

Not to mention injuries always happen, and I do not wish this, but its just part of the game.

IF, and I mean IF, one of them go down, the other two shoot up to WR1 value automatically. So its well worth the risk of owning any of the big 3 Denver WRs.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

As always, Welker's talent is being underestimated here. The guy is one of the best EVER at getting separation in a small space and just like Brady, Manning's strengths line up perfectly with Welker's. I'm not tremendously worried about Welker's age -- his game is based in large part on technical route running, knowing how to attack defenses and individual DBs, and knowing how to give an accurate QB a nice window to throw the ball.

Even with Randy Moss and then with Gronk (both elite HOF-level talents) Welker got plenty of balls in NE.

He might not see 180+ targets and 120+ catches, but he's a 150 target 100 catch player. Manning's gonna love him...

 

[King of the Jungle]

As always, Welker's talent is being underestimated here. The guy is one of the best EVER at getting separation in a small space and just like Brady, Manning's strengths line up perfectly with Welker's. I'm not tremendously worried about Welker's age -- his game is based in large part on technical route running, knowing how to attack defenses and individual DBs, and knowing how to give an accurate QB a nice window to throw the ball.Even with Randy Moss and then with Gronk (both elite HOF-level talents) Welker got plenty of balls in NE.He might not see 180+ targets and 120+ catches, but he's a 150 target 100 catch player. Manning's gonna love him...

Agree. If they are going to crank the up-tempo offense up with Mannings old arm he will be looking plenty to Welker and his quick routes.

 

[JPeso]

Thomas being drafted 21st overall (WR6)

Welker being drafted 43rd overall (WR15)

Decker being drafted 55th overall (WR21)

DT will justify this. Decker will come close to justifying this. Welker, you will feel as if you left something on the table.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Why folks are getting worried because the team has 3 quality receivers is a mystery but I think greed is at the bottom of it. Thomas is clearly built to be the WR1 in Denver but that doesn't mean the other 2 receivers are not going to see targets. Manning has had 3 different 1,000 yard receivers on 1 team and he did it with Dallas Clark still in the cuts and many would argue Denver has very little dynamic at TE. The backs in Denver also do not catch a lot of balls. There will be plenty of targets to go around. The 93 balls that Tamme and Dressen caught last year will be sharply reduced. Also Manning threw it 588 times, that was only 10th in the league.

Demaryius Thomas: 80/1250/10TD

Eric Decker: 80/1000/8 TD

Wes Welker: 85/1000/5 TD

Decker and Thomas had 2500 yds and 23 TD a year ago. Denver had 400 completions, this year that number should trickle up a little bit but 240 receptions out of 400 is what I am hollering here, basically about 80 balls a piece with Thomas being the home run threat and Decker/Welker moving the sticks. I'll tweak these but I expect the numbers will be close to this and owners will be happy in PPR leagues with solid WR2/3 numbers from Decker and Welker.

 

[FF Ninja]

Here is a thread with some discussion on the DEN situation... http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=679585&hl=

I still think this will be a dicey situation, although a new offense with more passing plays would make it a bit more tempting. But I can't help but feel like you'd be paying for last year's stats for all of them.

Thomas is a stud, studs get theirs. Problem is people over think it. Thomas does not line up at the same position, Thomas is still taller, so Red zone is still his thing, he is still the deep threat.

Whats not to like, some guy is telling me Nicks is just a tick behind Thomas. lol Thoams is a Top 5 WR in redraft and Dyno.

...or people don't think enough and make assumptions so they get caught off-guard, wondering why wasn't my stud a stud this year?!I'm not saying DT won't still be awesome next year, but there are a few things worth considering.

He saw a healthy 141 targets and caught 66.7% of them. That seems like a very good catch rate to me for a guy with a solid 15.3 ypr. Should Welker eat away at those targets, maybe just 1-2 a game, and his catch rate drops to around 60% then you get something like 120 x 0.60 = 72 receptions. Seems crazy to go from 94 to 72, but is it really a stretch? Sure, they are totally different receivers, but that doesn't mean Denver doesn't design some plays for their new player or at least make him the #1 read on a few plays a game, which would in turn knock a target or two a game off of DT's totals.

And guys do see fluctuations in their rec/targ number. For instance, Andre Johnson saw 170 targets in 2008 and 171 in 2009, but his % was 67.6 one year and 59.1 % the next year. His ypr was 15.5 with the low rate and 13.7 with the high catch rate.

It's also worth noting that the "red zone is still his thing" means less than you think it does. He saw six red zone targets last year out of 88 pass attempts. Whoopee.

Conclusion:

Fantasy football (and football to some extent) is a probability game. Crazy swings in TD production happen every year and sometimes players see radical drop/gain in yards per touch without obvious cause (see Ray Rice, 2009 vs. 2010 despite same O-line). There is always a chance that Denver throws the ball 700 times or decides to force feed DT, but I'd say there is at least an 80% chance his production declines based simply on targets and catch rate. His 10 TDs are a lot on a Peyton offense, too. Harrison did it quite a bit, but Wayne was usually a single digit guy - even with 175 targets in 2010 he only got 6.

Unless something drastic happens, I'll probably use this prediction in the player spotlight:

130 targets x 62% = 81 rec x 15.3 = 1240 yds 8 TD

Last year there were 373 WR targets and 160 TE targets. Respectively they caught 237 and 98. I could see maybe a few more attempts and Welker eating in the the TE targets, but we're still stretching the targets to get these guys to justify their ADPs. I'll add Welker and Decker. Decker will be the most interesting. He appears to have been used on a lot of shorter routes last year as his ypr dropped from 13.9 down to 12.5, and I assume Welker will be running these routes. So I expect his targets to drop the most while his ypr should increase as he plays more on the outside. It would be interesting to see some stats on where he lined up last year. For now, I'll be working with some assumptions. It should be noted that Decker was the slightly preferred red zone target, getting 25 targets, catching 17 of them, and scoring 12 times.

Welker

120 targets x 68% = 82 rec x 11 ypr = 900 yds 5 TD

Decker

110 targets x 65% = 72 rec x 14 ypr = 1000 yds 9 TD

 

[grateful zed]

The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football.

Thread Topic: Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas & Wes Welker, WRs, New England Patriots

dont you mean denver bronkos?

 

[ldizzle]

Thomas being drafted 21st overall (WR6)Welker being drafted 43rd overall (WR15)Decker being drafted 55th overall (WR21)

DT will justify this. Decker will come close to justifying this. Welker, you will feel as if you left something on the table.

I think people have a glimmer of hope that manning will lock onto welker kind of like he did I think it was in 2010 when collie was having a fantastic year. I think collie was top 5 ppg that year

 

[zamboni]

There seems to be some lofty expectations across the board for all three guys, and I just don't see it with this team. It seems erroneous to see Peyton Manning and three high-quality receivers, and all of a sudden assume that this will be the 2005 Colts.

While John Fox is not afraid to have his QB throw the ball, and it's Peyton Manning, I don't see the same philosophy as with the Colts. This Broncos team is much stronger defensively than the Colts of old, and may choose to grind it out more than we saw with Indy.

Just my two cents...

 

[Ghost Rider]

There seems to be some lofty expectations across the board for all three guys, and I just don't see it with this team. It seems erroneous to see Peyton Manning and three high-quality receivers, and all of a sudden assume that this will be the 2005 Colts.

While John Fox is not afraid to have his QB throw the ball, and it's Peyton Manning, I don't see the same philosophy as with the Colts. This Broncos team is much stronger defensively than the Colts of old, and may choose to grind it out more than we saw with Indy.

Just my two cents...

Agreed. Remember that rough stretch that Decker had from weeks 10-13 in 2012? These guys will not be immune to games like that in 2013. The overall numbers will be there for all three (I see Thomas as a WR1, Decker as a WR2 and Welker as a WR3), but expecting big numbers week in and week out from any WR is always dangerous, and when you have this many weapons in one offense, each guy is gonna have a handful of weeks where he doesn't do a whole lot. It will feel like the sky is falling if a guy like Thomas has two subpar weeks in a row, but his numbers will be there when the season is all said and done. I see:

Thomas 75-1,215-11

Decker 75-1,062-9

Welker 80-944-7

 

[rascal]

The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football.

Thread Topic: Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas & Wes Welker, WRs, New England Patriots

dont you mean denver bronkos?

 

[Sweet Love]

I think the best comparison is to the days when Manning was throwing to Harrison, Wayne and Stokley. In his recrod breaking, 49 TD, Season, all three went for over 1000 yards and 10 TD's, which is incredible. I would argue that this offense is more talented top to bottom than that offense was, with the lone exception being that Manning is now signiricantly older. i expect a huge season for Denver's offense and Manning in particular. I expect Manning to throw for ~4800 yards and ~45 TD's. That's a huge pie, with more than enough pieces to go around for all 3 WR's to post solid numbers. If we assume 600 attempts, which seems to be about the consensus, I see 150 going to Thomas, 135 to Decker, and 135 to Welker. Thomas: 100-1400-12Decker: 90-1100-14Welker: 95-1000-5 That leaves 180 targets, 1300 yards, and 14 TD's to go the the TE's, RB's and other WR's, which is well within reason.For those saying there just aren't enough balls to go around for all 3 to be significant, contributors, I'm simply not seeing it. This offense is going to be amazing, and now that Manning has a full season and a full off-season under his belt, it should run like a well oiled and perfectly assembled machine.

Not to mention injuries always happen, and I do not wish this, but its just part of the game.

IF, and I mean IF, one of them go down, the other two shoot up to WR1 value automatically. So its well worth the risk of owning any of the big 3 Denver WRs.

I see this as a really good point in regards to injury. I am not naïve enough to suggest that Denver does not have a plan for all three, but I also believe they understand their window is wickedly finite and stockpiled on WRs in order to insure that their offense, which is predicated on having two good WRs does not falter if one gets injured. If they go into the year with three healthy WRs, then I believe Manning will play the hot/open hand...thereby leading to a natural cannibalization of stats from the WR position. Do I think Welker could produce like a low end WR1, of course. But it will be at the cost of either Decker's or Thomas' stats (and that holds true for all three). I do believe that each has a different floor (i.e. I can't see a healthy Thomas falling to WR25 at year's end), so personally, I am looking for the guy who falls the farthest in regards to their ADP and grabbing that guy. It will likely be Decker (or possibly Welker)...I just can't see myself having Thomas on my roster with his current ADP.

 

[fightingillini]

IMO, this will be the spotlight of the year. Because the question will be......how much does each of these 3 eat into their production?

To me, the answer is yes to all 3. I know Manning is capable of throwing for 5000 yards, but at least 1 (and perhaps all 3) will be overvalued in drafts.

The bigger issue with these 3 is that I suspect you will see a lot of inconsistency between them....since Peyton is the master at exploiting matchups. So one week you may see Thomas blow up for 200 yards, the next week Welker has one of those 14/160/1 performances, and the next week Decker scores twice. Great for DEN, madness for fantasy owners.

Say Manning throws for 4700 yards (reasonable projection). Say 400 yds to the backs, 700 to the TEs (they still have Tamme and Dressen), and 300 to the WR4, that leaves about 3300 yards between Thomas, Decker and Welker.

Thomas is the deep threat, so I think Welker hurts him the least. I see Thomas with less catches, but will still get his yards. The TDs are variable, while Welker isn't a big TD guy, he's pretty consistent to get 6-8 TDs. So Thomas will be good WR1 option, I think his upside is limited and I would want someone like Dez Bryant or Julio Jones who IMO are 2 WRs capable of putting up numbers close to Calvin.

D Thomas - 82 rec, 1275 yds, 9 TD

Welker is going to catch a lot of passes, but not as many as from Tom Brady. Solid WR2.

W Welker - 87 rec, 1025 yds, 7 TD

IMO, Decker gets hurt the most. Welker steals receptions and some goal line scores. Still a decent WR2.

E Decker - 73 rec, 1000 yds, 8 TD

One of them will be a bust vs their draft position. The question is which one.

 

[fightingillini]

There seems to be some lofty expectations across the board for all three guys, and I just don't see it with this team. It seems erroneous to see Peyton Manning and three high-quality receivers, and all of a sudden assume that this will be the 2005 Colts.

While John Fox is not afraid to have his QB throw the ball, and it's Peyton Manning, I don't see the same philosophy as with the Colts. This Broncos team is much stronger defensively than the Colts of old, and may choose to grind it out more than we saw with Indy.

Just my two cents...

Remember that Manning threw for all those yards and TDs, and IND STILL got Edgerrin James 20+ carries a game. So I can see Manning throwing for 4700 yards and still the DEN RBs carry the ball 20+ times a game. Their offense is going to be that good.

Sure, DEN's defense will be pretty good, that will just make for more plays for the DEN offense. Most NFL teams don't ease off of the accelerator until it's later in the 4th quarter.

I can't see Fox taking the ball out of Peyton's hands more than last year.

 

[Faust]

I am still having some challenges formulating what a break down of passing attempts, completions, and the distribution of catches will look like for these three wide receivers; however, Welker is aware that he won't pull in as many catches as he did for the Patriots:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000204944/article/wes-welker-if-i-have-to-catch-112-balls-were-in-trouble

Wes Welker: Broncos in trouble if I have 112 catches

By Marc Sessler

Around the League Writer

Wes Welker averaged 112 catches per year during his six seasons with the New England Patriots. Don't expect that to happen with the Denver Broncos.

"If I have to catch 112 balls, that probably means we're in trouble," Welker told The Denver Post on Monday after his first organized practice with Peyton Manning.

Welker has meshed into a receiver-rich Broncos offense. With Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker also on the roster, Welker won't be used the way he was with the Patriots. Still, Manning says he already feels some of that psychic connection Welker shared with Tom Brady.

"There's certain guys you just feel like you have timing with right away," Manning said, via ESPN.com. "He's a guy that has a great feel for how to get open, and understands route concepts and, of course, he played in such a sophisticated offense there in New England, so he's a smart player."

Outside of Randy Moss, Welker rarely played alongside a legitimate deep threat with the Patriots. Thomas gives that to the Broncos, which should lead to plenty of one-on-one mismatches for everyone else.

The Broncos used three-receiver sets on 64 percent of their snaps last season. Look for that number to climb as the Broncos attack defenses with a maze of route combinations. After working with Brady all these years, Welker will be ready for anything Manning cooks up.

It will be fascinating to watch them work together.

Follow Marc Sessler on Twitter @MarcSesslerNFL.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

To think Welker can just come in and catch 100 balls with two WRs who know the offense and perform themselves is not wise. Yes Welker is a great slot receiver, but he is not the outside receiver that Thomas and Decker are. Decker is a big WR himself standing 6'3'' and 218 while Welker is 5'9'' and 183. While that does not equal production it equals the value that Decker is the #2 while Welker is the slot guy. Two different targets. Welker should eat into the WR3, TEs and RBs targets. I am rolling over laughing at the people who think Deckers value is that of a #3 WR now that Welker is in town.

Manning has always been known to distribute the ball and his offense is always pass happy as the QB is PEYTON FREAKING MANNING!

Thomas and Deckers value stay the same as if it was week 12 last year and Welker will be his Dallas Clark of yester-year.

Being an outside WR2 does not mean that player will necessarily see more targets than the slot WR (or WR3).

 

[ldizzle]

To think Welker can just come in and catch 100 balls with two WRs who know the offense and perform themselves is not wise. Yes Welker is a great slot receiver, but he is not the outside receiver that Thomas and Decker are. Decker is a big WR himself standing 6'3'' and 218 while Welker is 5'9'' and 183. While that does not equal production it equals the value that Decker is the #2 while Welker is the slot guy. Two different targets. Welker should eat into the WR3, TEs and RBs targets. I am rolling over laughing at the people who think Deckers value is that of a #3 WR now that Welker is in town. Manning has always been known to distribute the ball and his offense is always pass happy as the QB is PEYTON FREAKING MANNING! Thomas and Deckers value stay the same as if it was week 12 last year and Welker will be his Dallas Clark of yester-year.

Being an outside WR2 does not mean that player will necessarily see more targets than the slot WR (or WR3).

I know that they have stated that 3wr was gonna be their base set, but it will be interesting who the #2 is gonna be in 2 man sets.

 

[Bri]

Amendola and Collie (and a million other WRs) were the next Welker, but because he changed teams Welker becomes the next Amendola or the next Austin Collie? There's something "off" here.

 

[Run It Up]

Projections. Thomas 90/1200/11W. Welker 100/1100/6E. Decker 60/700/8TEs 80/800/11RBs 50/400/4Draft Denver.

 

[Nero]

I don't think Thomas and Decker will be affected at all. The TE's won't be as involved. Welker will get 80-90 catches.

 

[bigunreal]

A lot of Thomas owners on this thread, obviously. Why does everyone assume that Welker will eat only into Decker's numbers, and the TE numbers, but somehow Thomas will magically not be affected by the presence of a HOF receiver in the slot?

Last season, Thomas and Decker were practially indistinguishable from each other statistically. Decker was actually more valuable in TD heavy leagues. They are both young and talented. There is logical reason why only Thomas would be unaffected by the presence of Welker.

And a note for those of you who mentioned Austin Collie's 2010 season- he put up huge numbers while playing outside, his natural position, when Garcon was injured. In fact, Collie was leading the league in every receiving category after four games, but when Garcon returned, the team inexplicably put Collie back in the slot. He still played well, but was clearly better outside.

 

[Run It Up]

A lot of Thomas owners on this thread, obviously. Why does everyone assume that Welker will eat only into Decker's numbers, and the TE numbers, but somehow Thomas will magically not be affected by the presence of a HOF receiver in the slot?

Last season, Thomas and Decker were practially indistinguishable from each other statistically. Decker was actually more valuable in TD heavy leagues. They are both young and talented. There is logical reason why only Thomas would be unaffected by the presence of Welker.

And a note for those of you who mentioned Austin Collie's 2010 season- he put up huge numbers while playing outside, his natural position, when Garcon was injured. In fact, Collie was leading the league in every receiving category after four games, but when Garcon returned, the team inexplicably put Collie back in the slot. He still played well, but was clearly better outside.

Im confident it will eat into Thomas's targets, but I don't think it will effect his production much at all, most definitely less than Decker and the TEs.

Take this how you will, but Welker said "If I have to catch 112 balls, that probably means we're in trouble" on monday, I believe he meant he is gonna be more effective in the pass game. But overall I expect Peyton to throw even more this season. Everyone will get fed, I think you would be absolutely crazy to pass on any Denver receiver this year for their approximate ADP.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Let me start off with this. Eric Decker is an incredibly undervalued asset at the moment.

I’ll use ESPN.com’s target stats which are a bit more conservative than the ones above.

Thomas – 141
Decker – 123
Tamme – 85
Stokely – 58
Dreesen – 58

A lot of people have figured that the acquisition of Welker means terrible things for Thomas/Decker, lthough more seem to think Decker is the most adversely affected. That his FF value drops significantly. I can’t figure out why. Now if you believe it’s because you don’t think Decker can equal his 13 TD’s…that’s fine. That’s a tough figure to reach and duplicating that type of TD production is not an easy feat. But is Welker going to impact that? Welker had 6 TD’s last year with Tom Brady…being a red zone threat has never been Welker’s strong suit. Heck, Brandon Stokely had 5 TD’s in a much smaller role. The combination of Dreesen/Tamme combined for 143 targets and 7 TD’s. If you assume that Stokely is being replaced by Welker, you can add his 58 targets to that 143 number to come up with 201 and 12 TD’s. It just seems to me, that there is more than enough production to sparse out between Welker/Tamme/Dreesen that allows Welker to hit his high target (thus high reception) numbers while providing the Bronco TE’s a smaller role in the offense although similar standing in the red zone.

Also to note here is that with Manning feeling better physically and more comfortable in the offense and with the Broncos overall that Manning has stated a desire to pick-up the pace so to speak. While the Broncos finished tied for 4th in the NFL for number of plays run from scrimmage with 1090…it did not escape Manning’s attention that New England ran 1191. Now Manning likes to signal and gyrate at the LOS, winding the play clock down, but I can see him seeing the success NE had with their Chip Kelly type pace adoptions and feeling like he could execute similarly in certain situations. Bottomline is that I see the Broncos running a similar number of plays in 2013, if not more.

But I think there is more than enough opportunity out there for all three players (Thomas/Decker/Welker) to have significant production. Welker, while not reaching the levels he reached with Brady, should still be able to approach 100 receptions.

Prediction:

Thomas: 88 Receptions 1287 Receiving Yards, 12 TD’s. (current ADP; 2nd round)
Decker: 79 Receptions 1095 Receiving Yards, 10 TD’s. (current ADP; 6th round)
Welker: 92 Receptions 987 Receiving Yards, 6 TD’s. (current ADP; 4th round)

 

[BigSteelThrill]

A lot of Thomas owners on this thread, obviously. Why does everyone assume that Welker will eat only into Decker's numbers, and the TE numbers, but somehow Thomas will magically not be affected by the presence of a HOF receiver in the slot?

Last season, Thomas and Decker were practially indistinguishable from each other statistically. Decker was actually more valuable in TD heavy leagues. They are both young and talented. There is logical reason why only Thomas would be unaffected by the presence of Welker.

And a note for those of you who mentioned Austin Collie's 2010 season- he put up huge numbers while playing outside, his natural position, when Garcon was injured. In fact, Collie was leading the league in every receiving category after four games, but when Garcon returned, the team inexplicably put Collie back in the slot. He still played well, but was clearly better outside.

Talent. Manning will utilize DTs talent to its full extent. I see him as the 2nd highest ceiling on the entire draft board at WR.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

The Denver Post considers 75 catches the ideal number for Wes Welker and Eric Decker.
Reporter Mike Klis believes the "new balance" in the Broncos' passing attack needs to be Welker and Decker each snagging around 75 balls while Demaryius Thomas gets 85. Peyton Manning has never been a part of an offense where at least three players caught 75 passes, but Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon and Jacob Tamme all cleared 67 in 2010 for the Colts. Decker is the most obvious candidate to fall below 75 grabs, but if he does, it won't be by much.

Related: Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker

Source: Denver Post

 

[FF Ninja]

A lot of Thomas owners on this thread, obviously. Why does everyone assume that Welker will eat only into Decker's numbers, and the TE numbers, but somehow Thomas will magically not be affected by the presence of a HOF receiver in the slot?

Last season, Thomas and Decker were practially indistinguishable from each other statistically. Decker was actually more valuable in TD heavy leagues. They are both young and talented. There is logical reason why only Thomas would be unaffected by the presence of Welker.

And a note for those of you who mentioned Austin Collie's 2010 season- he put up huge numbers while playing outside, his natural position, when Garcon was injured. In fact, Collie was leading the league in every receiving category after four games, but when Garcon returned, the team inexplicably put Collie back in the slot. He still played well, but was clearly better outside.

Blind homer optimism. It is kind of funny at first, but really doesn't lead to worthwhile discussion.

 

[Phenix]

Seeing how people assume Welker is gonna come right in and push Decker to the side is still funny.

Decker was 2nd in the league in TDs last year, that guy does not matter now because they got a slot WR who was the only option at WR last year for his team. He did not have Thomas or Decker types at WR with him last year. TE does not count. Decker just has never played slot on a Brady offense.

Could that possibly be the case?

 

[We Tigers]

Which thread are you reading? Only 2 of the 10 projections I see have Decker catching fewer than 72 passes, with several putting him over 80 again. Seems like the Shark Pool is estimating that Welker will not have a major impact on Decker's receptions or yardage.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Which thread are you reading? Only 2 of the 10 projections I see have Decker catching fewer than 72 passes, with several putting him over 80 again. Seems like the Shark Pool is estimating that Welker will not have a major impact on Decker's receptions or yardage.

FWIW, this isnt NE anymore

 

[meyerj31]

I also think Decker is undervalued. The guy is a great talent who would be the clear #1 on at least half of the other NFL teams. Decker is one of the top 8 red-zone receivers in all of football (and has been since before Manning arrived). Thomas just happens to be in the top 8 as well.

I got him for $11 in a $200 auction league the other day.

$11 for a guy with a floor of 70//900/8 and a ceiling of 85/1100/13.

Yea, ok.

I link Decker's downside to Manning's throwing ability getting worse. That's the only issue I have him with him ... not Welker's touches.

 

[karmarooster]

2004 Colts:

Harrison - 86/1,100/15

Wayne - 77/1,200/12

Stokely - 68/1077/10

Manning did that on just 497 attempts. Imagine what he can do with 600 attempts. The TD totals may be inflated but it indicates there is 3,000+ yards of offense for a 3WR Manning offense. Given their personnel it just makes sense to de-emphasize the TEs.

DT - 85/1,275/12

Decker - 70/1,100/9

Welker - 75/1,050/7

 

[ConnSKINS26]

It's amazing when you think about that--you're comparing Manning's possible 2013 production to a record-breaking season he had almost TEN years ago, thinking he could match or top it...and it's actually realistic.

Incredible player.

 

[Beerguzzler]

2004 Colts:

Harrison - 86/1,100/15

Wayne - 77/1,200/12

Stokely - 68/1077/10

Manning did that on just 497 attempts. Imagine what he can do with 600 attempts. The TD totals may be inflated but it indicates there is 3,000+ yards of offense for a 3WR Manning offense. Given their personnel it just makes sense to de-emphasize the TEs.

DT - 85/1,275/12

Decker - 70/1,100/9

Welker - 75/1,050/7

If only Manning was 9 years younger.

 

[pizzatyme]

I love the Denver offense this year but there are some concerns for the WRs to hit their lofty ADP:

If the offense is clicking, will John Fox let off the gas with a big lead? If the defense is solid, I believe so.

Remember, in Indy, the defense was putrid, so it was out score the opponent.

With Manning a year older, does he try to conserve the arm?

When preparing for the playoffs, will they try to establish the running game which they know they'll need?

And as a side note I'd say these WRs are ideal in a total points league where week to week variances mean little!

 

[FF Ninja]

2004 Colts:

Harrison - 86/1,100/15

Wayne - 77/1,200/12

Stokely - 68/1077/10

Manning did that on just 497 attempts. Imagine what he can do with 600 attempts. The TD totals may be inflated but it indicates there is 3,000+ yards of offense for a 3WR Manning offense. Given their personnel it just makes sense to de-emphasize the TEs.

DT - 85/1,275/12

Decker - 70/1,100/9

Welker - 75/1,050/7

2004 was a bit of an anomaly. That was the year after they implemented a new rule against DBs where they couldn't place their hands on the WRs or something. The league leader in TDs went from 32 to 39 from '03 to '04. Two QBs surpassed 4k yards in '03 whereas five did it in '04. Plus, 2004 was Peyton's best year ever. He hit 9.2 ypa. He'll never do that again. He had a 5:1 TD to INT ratio. So yeah, let's not compare 2004 to 2013.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Seeing how people assume Welker is gonna come right in and push Decker to the side is still funny.

Is that really what people are assuming?

I don't think anyone assumes Decker will be an after thought in the offense, but Welker's targets are going to come from somewhere. Welker and Decker will both likely see less targets in 2013 than they did in 2012 - is that far fetched?