Player Spotlight: Eli Manning (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants

Player Page Link: Eli Manning Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[lod2005]

370-4850 36 TD's

 

[Bankerguy]

3800 yards

27 TD's

An intriguing propect this year...imo.

 

[Bri]

If only Archie had 32 sons

4k 25 TDs

 

[Chaz]

I do not see a whole lot of improvment, from an FF perspective, for Eli. Reasons being:

- His stats did not improve as the year went on last season.

- Plaxico is flaky. I did not like his disappearing act against Carl. in the playoffs.

- Very tough schedule.

On the positive side, I am certain that he is working out, studying, etc... It's a good team, in general. Still has some nice weapons.

I'll pencil in 24 Tds, 3950 yds, 12 INTs, 25 rushing yds.

 

[broncofan13000]

370-4850 36 TD's 

I almost spat out my coffee reading this total. I'm assuming you're ranking him as your #1 FF QB?3750 29 TD's sounds a bit more realistic imho.

 

[Grid71]

Chaz hit the points right on the head. Anoter caveat, the offense will sputter if anything happens to Tiki. Jacobs is big, but runs upright. If teams focus on a one dimentional team, Eli is in a world of hurt.

3450 yards, 23TD and 16 INT

Rushing 60 yds 0 TD

 

[Bankerguy]

Chaz hit the points right on the head. Anoter caveat, the offense will sputter if anything happens to Tiki. Jacobs is big, but runs upright. If teams focus on a one dimentional team, Eli is in a world of hurt.

3450 yards, 23TD and 16 INT

Rushing 60 yds 0 TD

I am not a Giants fan, but calling their Offense one dimensional doesn't really make sense to me.

 

[Phlash]

Eli continues to improve with another year of NFL experience

321/543 4082 yards, 26 TDs/16 INTs

 

[sacked4loss]

3840 yards 25tds 18ints

 

[Koya]

Chaz hit the points right on the head. Anoter caveat, the offense will sputter if anything happens to Tiki. Jacobs is big, but runs upright. If teams focus on a one dimentional team, Eli is in a world of hurt.

3450 yards, 23TD and 16 INT

Rushing 60 yds 0 TD

SD's offense would sputter without LT2. That caveat works for a whole lotta teams.

 

[Jack Ham & Eggs]

291/529, 3662, 26 TD, 16 INT

65/1 rushing

 

[Fantasy Strategist]

3827 yds, 26 td, 17 int

42 yds 1 td

 

[(HULK)]

370-4850 36 TD's

Wow. I expect him to have a good season, but wow.

These numbers would make him QB#1.

 

[(HULK)]

4160 passing yards, 28 tds, 14 ints

64 rushing yards, 0 tds

A top 3 QB this year.

 

[DarkManX]

I think he will improve again this yr on last yrs #s, should improve his TD to INT ratio and end up with around...

3600-3700

27 TDs

16 INTS

95yds n 2TDs on the ground.

 

[aposulli]

Eli had comparable numbers in his 2nd year to his bro's Peyton's 1st and 2nd year.

He may not have the same skill set, but he still has awesome weapons in Barber, Burresss, Shockey, and Toomer.

16 GP: 3,800 pass yds, 24 TDs, 15 INTs, 4 fumbles lost, 90 rush yds, 2 TD

 

[Byron_nyc]

New York homer, here. When this kid doesn't make mistakes he shines, and he's making less and less mistakes. His two main targets and young and getting better. Tiki keeps Ds honest. He'll be statistically as good -- but no better -- this year than the Roethlisbergers and Delhommes of the word, and maybe available a round or two later. Beware the hype -- he is not top five material ... yet.

3500 yrds, 22 TDs, 15 Ints, 2 fumbles.

 

[joffer]

307/535/3813/26/15 passing

25/65/1 rushing

schedule is tough, but this offense looks good. Shockey could very well end up as the top TE at the end of the year.

 

[Verbal Kint]

New York homer, here. When this kid doesn't make mistakes he shines, and he's making less and less mistakes. His two main targets and young and getting better. Tiki keeps Ds honest. He'll be statistically as good -- but no better -- this year than the Roethlisbergers and Delhommes of the word, and maybe available a round or two later. Beware the hype -- he is not top five material ... yet.

3500 yrds, 22 TDs, 15 Ints, 2 fumbles.

I've yet to see a projection where Eli is going after Delhomme and certainly not Roeth. He seems to be ~ QB6/7. Eli made great strides last year, but I think he will have a lower curve this year, and it won't be until 2007 when he really pulls it all together. He will excel against lesser opponents and be mediocre against tough defenses.

3350 yds 25TDs 16 Ints, 2 fumbles

 

[Construction Man Jim]

TO REITERATE MY PREVIOUS POSTS:

To my mind he is ahead of the curve having progressed as well or better than could have been reasonably expected thus far.

He has shown himself to be cerebral, hard working and cool under pressure. His situation in NY is very stable. His offensive line is remains intact, all his weapons from last year are returning (Plaxico, Shockey, Tiki, Toomer) and the Giants added Sinorice Moss in the draft.

Based on the above I expect him to take a BIG leap in his second full year as a starter (and for his TD/INT ratio and accuracy/ completion % to improve dramatically).

Eli demonstrated he can produce against tough competition last year (see the San Diego, Denver and Seattle games for example).

And as for Eli's struggles (inaccuracy) and decline in the second half of the season - one factor that hasn't been accounted for here is - he was fighting through a couple of undisclosed injuries (Giants didn't want teams to be able to game plan knowing the QB was less than 100% - and they would have faced stiff fines from the league had the injuries been acknowledged after the season).

1) He was never able to fully recover from/ sufficently rest the elbow injury he suffered against Carolina in the pre-season and further aggrevated it at some point during the season. It was clearly affecting him more and more as the season wore on.

2) He also hurt his wrist against the Eagles.

The fact that Eli toughed it out despite being injured makes having the type of season he had all that much more impressive.

In just his 2nd year in the league and first full year as a starter he was 5th in passing yards and 4th in TD passes for the entire NFL. Consider how that compares vs. the elite QBs of the past 30 years (at comparable stages of their careers):

Eli Manning

Yards...Cmp%...TD...INT...Rating...Games...Year

3762....52.8......24....17....75.9.....16 (16)...2

Peyton Manning

Yards...Cmp%...TD...INT...Rating...Games...Year

3739....56.7......26....28....71.2......16 (16)...1

4135....62.1......26....15....90.7......16 (16)...2

Carson Palmer

Yards...Cmp%...TD...INT...Rating...Games...Year

2897....60.9......18...18.....77.3......13 (13)...2

3836....67.8......32...12.....101.1....16 (16)...3

Tom Brady

Yards...Cmp%...TD...INT...Rating...Games...Year

2843....63.9......18...12.....86.5.....15 (14)...2

3764....62.1......28...14.....85.7.....16 (16)...3

Brett Favre

Yards...Cmp%...TD...INT...Rating...Games...Year

3227....64.1......18...13.....85.3.....15 (13)...2

3303....60.9......19...24.....72.2.....16 (16)...3

Donovan McNabb

Yards...Cmp%...TD...INT...Rating...Games...Year

3365....58.0......21...13.....77.8.....16 (16)...2

3233....57.8......25...12.....84.3.....16 (16)...3

Ben Roethlisberger

Yards...Cmp%...TD...INT...Rating...Games...Year

2621....66.4......17...11.....98.1.....14 (13)...1

2385....62.7......17...9.......98.6.....12 (12)...2

Daunte Culpepper

Yards...Cmp%...TD...INT...Rating...Games...Year

3937....62.7......33...16.....98.0......16 (16)...2

2612....64.2......14...13.....83.3......11 (11)...3

3853....60.7......18...23.....75.3......16 (16)...4

Joe Montana

Yards...Cmp%...TD...INT...Rating...Games...Year

1795....64.5......15...9.......87.8.....15 (7).....2

3565....63.7......19...12.....88.4.....16 (16)...3

Jim Kelly

Yards...Cmp%...TD...INT...Rating...Games...Year

3593....59.4......22...17.....83.3.....16 (16)...1

2798....59.7......19...11.....83.8.....12 (12)...2

3380....59.5......15...17.....78.2.....16 (16)...3

Dan Marino

Yards...Cmp%...TD...INT...Rating...Games...Year

2210....58.4......20...6.......96.0.....11 (9).....1

5084....64.2......48...17.....108.9...16 (16)...2

4137....59.3......30...21.....84.1.....16 (16)...3

John Elway

Yards...Cmp%...TD...INT...Rating...Games...Year

1683....47.5......7.....14.....54.9......11 (11)...1

2598....56.3......18...15.....76.8......15 (15)...2

3891....54.0......22...23.....70.2......16 (16)...3

Troy Aikman

Yards...Cmp%...TD...INT...Rating...Games...Year

1749....52.9......9.....18.....55.7.....11 (11)...1

2579....56.6......11...18.....66.6.....15 (15)...2

2754....65.3......11...10.....86.7.....12 (12)...3

3445....63.8......23...14.....89.5.....16 (16)...4

That places Eli in ELITE company.

I feel VERY strongly about Eli this year. Similar to the way I felt about Larry Johnson before last season (I drafted him in all my leagues - he made me a lot of money). Based on where I've seen Eli projected so far, he still presents good value. I think he will be a fantasy difference maker this season.

PROJECTION: 3950 Yds, 58.5 Cmp%, 30 PTD, 12 INT, 1 RTD

 

[Two Deep]

3000 yards 22 TDS 22 INTS.

 

[radballs]

270 completions on 480 attempts, 3,600 passing yards, 22 TDs, 18 INTs, 30 rushes, 85 rushing yards, 0 TDs

 

[CalBear]

As I noted in the other Eli Manning thread, Eli's fantasy numbers were inflated in 2005 by an unusual number of pass attempts (557, #3 overall). Coughlin has only twice had a QB in the top 10 in pass attempts, and on average has his QBs in the bottom half of the league.

If Manning were to drop down to 500 pass attempts--which would still rank in the top 10 in the league--he would need to complete 59% of his passes to get the same number of completions as in 2005. If he drops down to 450 attempts--which is more in line with what you'd expect from a Coughlin QB--he'd need to complete 64% of his passes.

I see Eli improving as an NFL QB, but taking a step back as a fantasy QB, due to a combination of reduced opportunity and difficult schedule.

280/480 (58.3%), 7.0 ypa, 3360 yards. 22 TD, 14 INT. 75 yards rushing, 1 TD. Good for approximately QB#12.

 

[(HULK)]

Eli Manning is just a guy we can't get a solid consensus on.

Some seem to see him as a top 3 QB.

Others see him as being near the bottom of the top 12.

Everyone agrees he is starting caliber, but there are a variety of opinions about his upside.

Personally, I think he will outperform his draft position significantly.

 

[GetThePoint]

There are 2 things which really bother me about Eli.

1) His failure to execute down the stretch last year. After starting the year with a 14/5 TD/INT ratio, he finished it off 10/12, and that included a 3/0 game against a defeated Eagles team in week 11. A 52% completion % is also troublesome. One thing that I noted in looking back at that post of other elite QB's, I didn;t see too many with completion %'s that low. In my mind, a low completion percentage indicates an inability to operate a team's office.

2) The Giants schedule. The Giants have 8 games against teams that I have ranked in the top eight in pass defense. WAS(2x), DAL(2x), CAR, TB, CHI, SEA. That doesn't include PHI(2x), who should rebound, JAX and ATL. That's 12 games that may be very, very tough. Consider last year when Eli threw 9 of his 24tds in weeks 1-4 against ARI, NO, SD, and STL. No more NFC West for Eli.

3100/21/16

 

[Tau837]

307/535/3813/26/15 passing

25/651/1 rushing

schedule is tough, but this offense looks good. Shockey could very well end up as the top TE at the end of the year.

651 rushing yards? Bold prediction. Sig bet?

 

[Tau837]

New York homer, here. When this kid doesn't make mistakes he shines, and he's making less and less mistakes.

Based on what, exactly?Not interceptions:Games 1-4 last year: 2 intsGames 5-8 last year: 3 intsGames 9-12 last year: 7 intsGames 13-16 last year: 5 ints1 playoff game last year: 3 intsCompletion percentage? (Fewer mistakes in decision-making?)Games 1-4 last year: 53.7%Games 5-8 last year: 49.6%Games 9-12 last year: 51.3%Games 13-16 last year: 56.7%1 playoff game last year: 55.6%Some marginal progression there, but at no point where it should be.How about sacks? Not necessarily his fault, but a QB, especially a young one, certainly can contribute to them.Games 1-4 last year: 6 sacksGames 5-8 last year: 6 sacksGames 9-12 last year: 11 sacksGames 13-16 last year: 5 sacks1 playoff game last year: 4 sacksGames 9-12 were certainly brutal, but even ignoring those games there was no improvement throughout the season.QB rating measures efficiency. Here is Eli's by month last season (easier to find it this way):September: 88.7October: 80.3November: 77.7December: 64.1Playoff game: 35.0Ugh.Look, maybe he was battling injuries. Maybe much of the blame can go to the OL. And maybe he will take a big step forward this year in areas like completion percentage and turnovers...I just don't see anything upon which you can justify your statement.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Eli surpised big time last year and finished 4th amongst QBs fantasy wise. As noted earlier in this thread, his statistics were a bit inflated by an un-Coughlin like 557 pass attempts. Heading into his third year (and 2nd with Plax), the natural instinct is to project Eli to build upon his 2005 numbers.

I expect Eli's progress in '06 to be revealed in a higher completion percentage and a higher Y/A, not in significantly more TDs or yards. I think it's likely Eli becomes more efficient and the Giants have significantly fewer pass attempts, reverting to past Coughlin norms.

My projected totals: 3600 yards, 23 TDs, 14 INTs, good enough for 9th among all QBs.

Edit to include Eli's less than favorable fantasy playoff schedule (14-16): @ Car, Phi, NO.

 

[rzrback77]

I agree that although Eli Manning will again improve this season as an NFL QB, his fantasy scoring will likely decrease. His passing attempts almost assuredly will decrease.

I give him 274 completions in 510 attempts for 3777 yards, 25 TDs, and 14 Ints. Rushing will be minimal, 30 attempts for 70 yards and 1 TD.

The problem is that he finished as a top five fantasy QB last year and many will predict the same or better, leading to him being selected too high. Not much difference between about twelve QBs in the 4 to 15 range, so it will be much more productive to wait past when Eli Manning is taken.